Out of the Frying Pan and Into the Slightly Smaller Frying Pan

 

Thinking about this trade the Royals and Reds made, which brings Jonathan India and Joey Wiemer to Kansas City in exchange for Brady Singer, I...think it makes sense, but I think that one side thought it through more than the others.

Okay, let's talk about where this trade works. And there is some of it that works on the Kansas City end. Jonathan India is the exact kind of middle infield piece that the Royals needed. Pasquantino and Witt are firmly in place, and Massey and Garcia are...fine. Massey had a decent rebound season, Garcia's was a step down from his 2023. One of those two could be a swing piece, India could fit right into 2nd, and that infield could really be something. I also like India's odds in that lineup; he doesn't need to be THE defining piece, but he's a great piece that can get some contact work done. 

That also works to clear up the now-crowded Cincinnati infield, which will have the return of Matt McLain at 2nd, CES back at 1st and Candelario and Marte at third, in addition to Elly remaining at short. Keeping India in that scenario complicates things too much, and he's got more room in Kansas City I think.

And then you can also say that the Reds had too many outfielders, and the Royals' OF isn't set in stone yet, so Wiemer's better off for KC than Cincinnati. So that works too.

...but it's the Brady Singer part that confuses me a bit.

Okay. So Brady Singer was really good in 2022, right? And he was primed to be one of the premier young starters in the game. Then 2023 he has a down year, and everyone sort of...backs off that. Cole Ragans shows up, the Royals get Lugo and Wacha, the pressure's off. And so in 2024, Singer has a decent enough season, 9-13 with a 3.71 ERA and 170 strikeouts, but he's no longer the most crucial arm in that rotation. So, going into 2025, the Royals have Lugo, Ragans, Wacha, Alec Marsh, and some combination of Kris Bubic and Kyle Wright, assuming neither get cut soon. We're looking at a rotation that no longer has room for Brady Singer.

So let's look at where he's going, the Reds' rotation, who will be using all of the following as starting options in 2025: Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Brandon Williamson, Nick Lodolo, Nick Martinez, Rhett Lowder, Graham Ashcraft and Julian Aguiar. Now, obviously you have to factor in injuries, people starting in the minors, but that's eight guys. And I know they're overestimating this because for the second year in a row the Reds got caught with their pants down again because too many starters got injured. So they're trying to employ a strategy that prevents this. But now this ninth guy enters the equation, and he does so as a major league option, so that means Rhett Lowder likely will have to fight harder for a rotation spot, Nick Martinez will likely be starting the season out of the 'pen, and if multiple people who were injured this year are ready at spring training, it's gonna lead to some awkward decisions.

So yes, the Royals no longer had room for Brady Singer. But the Reds have even LESS room, even as a team creating back molars and wisdom teeth for the rotation essentially. So unless the Reds are interested in swinging Singer for another trade, they're gonna be holding the bag like this. Maybe they have a plan with all of this, but it just seems excessive and misguided.

Who knows, maybe Singer works more than India, but I'm not sold with KC's decision to give Singer a harder time yet. Maybe I'll warm up to it.

MVPs: Balanced At Last

 
I think we knew this was gonna be the drill in, like, August. Throughout the year there were moments of greatness from competitors, like Mookie Betts' start, Elly de la Cruz's May, Jose Ramirez's second half and Francisco Lindor's September, but it was always going to be about Judge and Ohtani. Nobody could do what they did this year [like going 50-50 and hitting 50+ homers on a bigger OPS than 2022] and not be rewarded for it.

I think Aaron Judge's MVP may be overshadowed by his postseason play, though. A lot of people have been poking fun at Judge's weak World Series showing and Game 5 errors, but nobody can deny how powerful he is when he's in his element. And from April til August of this year, Judge was in his element. Yes, he went cold in September, but he's not very used to A.) being healthy all 162 games and B.) making it to the World Series. He's new at this. Not everybody can be Yoshinobu Yamamoto and be playing in a World Series, and well, immediately. Clayton Kershaw won a ring after several years of 'Kershaw sucks in the playoffs' talk. The narrative can turn around, and I believe there's an opportunity for Judge's to. 

I think because Judge is the best, and because he plays for a team it's cool to root against, he opens himself up to more criticism. If Dak Prescott were to lead a team to a Super Bowl, it'd be similar--nothing about a grade A athlete building on great seasons and capitalizing the moment after all this time, there'd just be something new to make fun of the second he makes a mistake. Nobody can deny Judge's ability, but it's much easier to enjoy a Yankee failure for a lot of people. 

And further, you don't see a lot of people that don't like Shohei Ohtani? How could you dislike such a rare talent?? The Dodgers have a lot of guys like that--Betts, Freeman, Kershaw, guys who are so good, and so fun to watch, that you can't really dislike them. Betts played for the Red Sox for 6 years, I couldn't bring myself to hate the guy. And you can't Ohtani, all you can do is hope you never have to face him. That Ohtani hit 50 homers and stole 50 bases, which nobody had ever done, while rehabbing from Tommy John surgery is one of the most incredible achievements of any MLB player in years. How many other people can do something like that? 

Like last year, these two guys won MVPs because they're the most crucial MLB players of the current moment. You cannot tell the stories of these two teams without them. Even if you don't like repeat offenders in awards week, it really couldn't have been anyone else for either league. 

Cy Youngs: Immediate & Delayed

 

I'm gonna be honest, I had a Tiger and a Brave in the finals for the Cy Young at the beginning of the year, but it wasn't these two. I was thinking Spencer Strider was gonna win it for the Braves, and I was fully convinced that this would be the Casey Mize comeback season of the Gods. Seriously.

Which is to say that these two outweighing the odds and winning is a great outcome. Not predictable. Like if I'd have picked these in April, I'd have said like...Corbin Burnes and Tyler Glasnow. Much more exciting, honestly. 

What also makes this a cool Cy Young outcome is that these two were both kind of uneasy rolls of the dice going into the year. Skubal was always gonna be a rotation option, but it was gonna be a matter of how healthy he'd be, or if he'd need more IL time [like Mize and Manning did]. And then he went on an incredible run and kept it going throughout the season, and into the postseason. I think in terms of sheer dominance, Skubal was pretty unrivaled this year, as even his competitors [Burnes, Crochet, Lugo] had more human moments throughout the year. 

Meanwhile, Sale was an absolute flyer for the Braves, dealt by the Sox after several down years and some lost goodwill. The Braves gave up Vaughn Grissom just to see if Sale had anything left, and would play him from a low rotation rung for less damage. Then Strider got hurt, Fried got hurt, Elder struggled, and the savior, ultimately, was Chris frigging Sale. And with this opportunity, Sale did the one thing he never could do with Chicago or Boston...he outlasted the competition and was the best pitcher in the league.

Maybe it was just getting out of the AL, I dunno.

The one thing about the Sale win, at long last, was that it came at the expense of Zack Wheeler, another 'always a bridesmaid never a bride' Cy Young candidate. Once again, he was extremely good, and made it to 2nd in the voting, but...as always, there was just someone better. And to be honest, Chris Sale's peak years have been better than Zack Wheeler's. Sale, with this season, may have punched his ticket to the Hall of Fame, and I don't think Wheeler has the pre-28 numbers for that. So this was more fitting than anything, the one guy who beats Wheeler this time is the guy who got beaten, unceremoniously, too many times in the 2010s. 

Look, my own personal home-team gripes aside, these were the two best pitchers in baseball this year, and they deserve the gold. What's weird is that, as inevitable as these two were, compared to the MVPs they're unexpected wins. 

Rookies of the Year: We've Been Over This Before

 
I'm frankly getting tired of the asterisk ruining the Rookie of the Year award year after year. We just went over this with Randy Arozarena in 2021. For my money, if a player A.) gets rookie cards for playing in a given year, or B.) contributes positively to the league within his first season, that means his rookie service is over. But because team organizations don't sleep at night unless they've screwed over the worker, a rookie year doesn't count unless it's breached a certain bar of games played. It's why Arozarena was still a rookie in 2021 despite playing in many games in 2020, and being a key postseason figure for the Rays that year. Because of the season only being sixty games, he didn't reach that threshold, so his sophomore season outweighed many actual rookie seasons.

And that's how I feel about Luis Gil. Gil already made waves as a rookie in 2021, with his first three starts allowing 0 runs. Though he would only make six starts that season, Gil received rookie cards for the 2022 calendar year. I have several, because card companies made many of them. Gil, however, missed the next two seasons due to injury recovery, and was only a last minute choice to start in 2024 [and we know how well that went]. 

Gil's 2024 season was seen by many as a comeback season. He started strong, got hurt, missed time, came back and was outstanding. That doesn't sound like a rookie season. But in the rules of the MLB, because it broke the service time threshold despite his actual rookie year being three damned years ago, he was still a rookie this year. And as such, he won Rookie of the Year because he had the better season than the other actual rookies he was up against. You're putting a doberman in a dog show and you're confused that the doberman's eating the other dogs.

Now, the other two candidates for the AL Rookie of the Year, Austin Wells and Colton Cowser, did make MLB appearances last year. Neither made much of an impact in 2023. Gil, meanwhile, had a 0.8 WAR in 2021. That's not nothing. That's more than Jackson Holliday mustered in 60 games, it's more than Spencer Arrighetti amassed in 29 starts, and it's more than Spencer Torkelson has gathered in his entire career. IT IS A ROOKIE SEASON. But, of course, the rules remain set in stone, because god forbid they treat a young player like he's worth for spending three years on the 40-man of the richest team in the majors. 

And the thing about the 'comeback' tract now is that, because pitchers get injured more frequently, and sooner into their careers, than ever before, you're seeing 'comeback seasons' for people in their early 20s. What would ordinarily be seen as a breakout is now a comeback because it involves missing two years due to an injury that would come ten years later if everyone wasn't throwing so damned hard. This is what's frustrating me about Andrew Painter, who hasn't even played an MLB game yet. Painter's 2025 season is being billed as a 'comeback campaign'. The man hasn't even been HERE. He's not allowed to COME BACK yet, he's got to GET THERE FIRST. Let Andrew Painter have some MLB seasons for the Phils first, then we can talk about a comeback. 

Gil, meanwhile, is a comeback story. And I judged his 2024 season as such. If billing him as a rookie gets him more accolades, fine, but I don't think it's a wise conflation. Validating that will make it more understandable for organizations to keep futzing with service time and thinking of more ways to undervalue players, and we don't want that.

The inverse of this, of course, is that because Paul Skenes came up in May and won the NL's Rookie of the Year, that means he's automatically passed the rookie threshold. I assumed he did anyway, as his 2024 season is, by many respects, a rookie season. He pitched a very full campaign, an EXCELLENT campaign, and it was his first one in the major leagues. That is a rookie season, and now that it has ended...he is no longer a rookie. I shouldn't have to make it this plain. I was worried he wouldn't make the Topps cutoff and his rookie cards would be pushed to 2025, but thankfully cooler heads prevailed.

Skenes getting the ROY I 100% agree with, though honestly I would have agreed with Jackson Merrill getting it as well, or possibly even Jackson Chourio. You had so many really great rookie competitors in the NL this year, and Skenes was the flashier choice, so naturally he's a great pick for the gold. I'd have been worried if he wasn't considered. Skenes is also up for the Cy Young which...he isn't going to get, though I'm expecting him to edge Wheeler out of 2nd place just to ensure the voting committee can completely waste Wheeler's peak years. 

Anyway, these are two solid picks, but...the whole 'rookie service time' thing is never not gonna piss me off. Luis Gil wasn't a rookie this year. But hey, whatever sells more tickets I guess.