On the Verge [Once Again]

 
It's weird that one of the themes of the 2020s in general have been 'the Marlins and Reds are good enough to contend but not good enough to ever do anything', but here we are. 

That's why I think the first year of this decade having an expanded playoff field was absolutely wild, because in a sense it illuminated not only the passing fads of the time [the White Sox, Ross Cubs and the A's], but it revealed the sort of teams that could be something if it were 18 teams every year. Of course, that year, both the Reds and Marlins made it, and if you'll recall the Marlins actually beat the Cubs in a playoff series, eventually getting swept by the Braves because how can you not?? Since then, both teams have flirted with long-term success, with the 2023 Marlins making a Wild Card series but getting embarrassed by the Phillies, and last year's Reds getting immediately bounced by the Dodgers. 

But both teams have regularly been in playoff conversations. The Reds have the angle of 'they're in a tough division but look at what they have'. Any playoff push that involves Elly de la Cruz and Hunter Greene is gonna get eyes on it, and last year with help from Ke'Bryan Hayes, Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar, they were right there with the other wild card hopefuls. You can also see them continuing to build a long term competitor, calling up Sal Stewart late last year and banking on both Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns for crucial 2026 roles, plus the addition of Eugenio Suarez back in the heart of that lineup. Yet, again, thanks to the Brewers and Cubs they are a borderline playoff team, and this is a year where they might have to work extra hard to keep the Pirates at bay. 

The Marlins have been competitive less frequently, but when it does happen it's always a fun burst of energy. Last year the team was a late wild card spoiler that failed to fully materialize, and as a result the team lost Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Dane Myers, Eric Wagaman and Troy Johnston. The joy of this team is there's a ton of young options that can pop right up and take over, and Owen Caissie, Heriberto Hernandez and Graham Pauley are all in play for crucial positions. The core of the team is still a sneakily effective young mix of former organizational castoffs, including Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee and Agustin Ramirez. Griffin Conine, Connor Norby and Eury Perez are eyeing full breakout seasons. Even in a division as tough as the NL East, you can never completely count out the Marlins, and even if it requires less-than-dignified means, the Marlins can power their way through some insane wins.

Not that it'll be easy for either team. The Reds will begin the season without Hunter Greene, and the Marlins just lost Kyle Stowers for a few weeks. But the fact that we're talking about this possibility at all means it hasn't been completely counted out. The Mets could bottom out again in August, as could the Cubs. Both the Reds and the Marlins can take advantage of a lull, and make it their own. It'll be interesting to see if this can happen for either, or both, this year.

The Strangest Sights of Spring

 

Prior to 2026, Andrew McCutchen had spent approximately 3 months of his 16-year career on American League team, that fun autumn with the 2018 Yankees. Everyone assumed he'd retire as a Pittsburgh Pirate. However, Bob Nutting, in finally putting money into the team and building something of a competitor for 2026, did so at the expense of the fans, who would have loved to keep getting to see Cutch. In his place, the Pirates now have Marcell Ozuna at DH, which is arguably more value and WAR, but a much less likable player with a much more suspect track record.

And so now Cutch had to soldier on the only way he knew how, by putting out feelers for any other teams that needed veteran help and trying to make the club that way. The Rangers bit, and now we have the bizarre sight of Andrew McCutchen in Rangers blue, looking to make the club as a bench DH type. All the while, Ozuna seems to be a lock for his old DH spot in Pittsburgh, and will be trading in the green sleeve for a yellow one. Regardless of what emotion it brings out from any loyalist, either of these looks are just downright odd, even if they do last. 

And that's the main factor, as we round out the end of Spring Training. Like any preseason year, there's some sights that just don't look right. And either you get used to them during the season or they fade off in the distance, never quite panning out. I'll rundown some favorites in each of the 30 camps. It's not just 'a player in a new uniform', but it's players in uniforms that will take a while to get used to. Again, think of cutch on the Rangers, a lot like Hunter Pence on the Rangers. It's a real shock honestly.

Angels: Alek Manoah, a surprising favorite for an Opening Day rotation spot, and someone with a real desire to prove his success was not a fluke. The shift from Jays to Braves I could stomach, but this is a different color scheme and a different section of the continent. Maybe this works out.

 Astros: Nick Allen by default, but he honestly looks odd in most uniforms. An Allen-Altuve DP combo would be cool because there wouldn't be much of a height difference. 

A's: Jeff McNeil. Not only does McNeil look odd out of Mets pinstripes for the first time since his career began in 2018, but he just looks odd standing next to all of these young, talented players starting their careers. McNeil will be sharing playing time with Zach Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom, and attempting to prove he's still a durable MLB option. 

Blue Jays: Jesus Sanchez. In my defense, this is the first time in his career he's not in wholly dark tones, and the more optimistic light blues and whites of Toronto will be interesting. It'll also be interesting to see what he can add to this team after standing out in Miami and falling short in Houston.

Braves: Mike Yastrzemski. Seeing him in Kansas City blue was also weird for the record. I think I just assumed he'd stick with SF til the contract ran out, then keep re-upping, and seeing him now as a crucial piece of this return-to-form Braves squad is something I wasn't expecting.

Brewers: Akil Baddoo. Even if he doesn't make the team it'll just be a weird note after a bunch of Tigers seasons.

Cardinals: There's actually a lot of competition. Ryne Stanek in bright red looks odd, Ramon Urias in bright red..I'm giving it to Dustin May because it's a complete inversion of how I pictured him in LA.

Cubs: Lord have mercy, welcome back to the bigs Tyler Austin!! Austin was a Yankee farmhand around the same time as Aaron Judge, flamed out, then became a big star in the Japanese leagues. Here he's back, and is trying to crack the overstuffed Cubs roster. Honestly, with Seiya Suzuki hurt he's got a chance. Mostly want him to succeed for the joy of it, but man is it weird seeing him out of pinstripes.

D-Backs: Nolan Arenado, as discussed. Verging on Longoria vibes.

Dodgers: Edwin Diaz probably, but there really isn't much competition. I think I'm still extremely used to seeing him in Mets colors, as is most of the league. Odd that it really was SEVEN SEASONS in Queens. It didn't feel that long.

Giants: I think this'll be Harrison Bader, because this is the furthest west he's ever played and the most he's ever been in black. 

Guardians: Either Colin Holderman or Rhys Hoskins. Equally known for either one team or one shade or so. Hoskins in the AL will be very interesting.

Mariners: Rob Refsnyder for sure. This'll be the first time in a while he's suited up for a team that isn't the Red Sox, and the M's are banking on him in a full time DH role, which is huge. I sincerely hope it works out for him, he's the exact kind of guy that could work in Seattle.

Marlins: Really just Owen Caissie. Cubs fans thought they'd be getting him next, then the Cabrera deal happens, now he's become the latest and greatest big time prospect to try to make it in Miami.

Mets: Clearly there's a lot of competition, but of all of them I think Jorge Polanco looks the strangest. I never considered him a possibility to play for the Mets. You know how some people just have that 'yeah, the Mets will go for them' feel? Polanco's not one of those guys for me. Hell, 1st base isn't even his position, and he'll be covering for Pete Alonso, so that's even stranger.

Nationals: Miles Mikolas, as I just assumed he wouldn't play anywhere else other than St. Louis. Still red, but just slightly off.

Orioles: Shane Baz. I think mostly because I think of him as a kid in dark tones, and now he's there wearing the orange highlighters. A little off. Really hope he works out in Baltimore though.

Padres: Nick Castellanos narrowly beats German Marquez. Mostly cause it just makes me sad.

Phillies: Brad Keller in a color other than blue. Though, real talk, I really hope he keeps it going for us, cause we deserve some good bullpen luck, FINALLY.

Rays: Cedric Mullins. I'm thinking I'll get used to this, but Mullins just seems like a different kind of player from the sort of veteran the Rays usually bring in. Perhaps he'll be dealt by June.

Red Sox: Willson Contreras in the AL is the weirdest bit of this, weirder than Ranger Suarez in the AL. I think I'm mostly just caught off guard still by the Cardinals trading him. And now he's the first baseman, supposedly for this Sox team, or maybe the DH. It might work but it doesn't compute for me at the moment.

Reds: Dane Myers probably, but Pierce Johnson and J.J. Bleday come close. Myers might actually work better in Cincinnati than he did in Miami. Slightly better team.

Rockies: Michael Lorenzen I think. I just never expected to see him on an 'it's a living' signing, not after the Tigers one.

Royals: Starling Marte, like his old teammate Andrew McCutchen, has only spent 3 months in the AL, from his 2021 stint in Oakland. This will be an odd venture, not only as a KC DH, but on likely his last legs. I remember when he was the speedy, powerful rookie, and now he's just kind of hanging around. That's very odd.

Tigers: Kenley Jansen's really the only one of these that looks anywhere close to strange. It's not the Dodgers, after all.

Twins: Orlando Arcia, probably. A shame so much of this team is just people trying to keep playing. More minor league than anything else.

White Sox: Anthony Kay, another returning guy from a couple continents over. Used to him in Toronto colors, now he tries Act 2 as a White Sox. Hope it goes as well for him as...well, teammate Erick Fedde, though perhaps sustained over a longer period of time.

Yankees: N/A. Cause even Ryan Weathers is a second-generation Yankee. Nothing looks too out of the ordinary...yet.

Weathering With You

 

It should be concerning that I'm going into a Yankees season going 'look at Ryan Weathers', but, with the way things have worked out, Ryan Weathers might be a major factor in the Yankees' rotation this year. That's right, Ryan Weathers, the guy who couldn't find a job pitching in San Diego, then got a prime seat for one in Miami and whenever he got the chance immediately got hurt, is a favorite to be a mid to late rotation arm for the New York Yankees. If you think that means we're doomed, you're not paying attention.

It has been made clear that the Yankees will be without Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt for a little while, and Carlos Rodon for at least the first few weeks of the season. Three really important pieces not joining you from the jump. So that requires rotation depth. However, as established last year, that's something we have now. We have Will Warren, who made all his starts last year in a season where he wasn't even a lock for the rotation, and we have Cam Schlittler, who had a phenomenal rookie stretch and some incredible postseason appearances. Like the Dodgers, we have contingency plans for injured starters. And it's very fitting that one of them, Ryan Weathers, is himself an oft-injured starter. 

So starting the season, the Yankees will be going with Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren and Ryan Weathers. People are writing this rotation off because it seems like a No. 2 guy and four No. 5 guys. It's not. Gil can go deep, and certainly did in 2024. Last year he was a little more human, he was due for a down year. Schlittler is on his way to ace status and will probably improve further in a full season of work. Warren, like Gil, can eat innings and go deep, and certainly strike people out. And Weathers, when healthy, is a good guy to have around. In 16 games in 2024, he had a 3.63 ERA, 80 Ks and a 1.177 WHIP. So far in Spring Training he's gotten into some trouble with the Mets but he still looks like a solid option. 

I think the perceived step down is just because it's an untested, lower-key rotation. There's no Gerrit Cole to fall back on. And I realize that the Jays will be coming in with Dylan Cease, the Red Sox now have Ranger Suarez, and the Orioles have Shane Baz, but I still think the Yankees have enough of a lineup to stay in the race until the hurt starters come back. They kept Cody Bellinger for a reason, and he really works in New York. We're also gonna see how Jose Caballero, Jasson Dominguez, Jazz Chisholm and Ben Rice do with eyes on them. 

I think about it this way: when the Yankees come in looking big, that's when they fall. That's when they embarrass themselves. They need to earn the status and get there without the big expectation, and then build on that. I think they can do this, but they need to convince people. 

And then who knows. Maybe Spencer Jones eventually makes an appearance and dials things to the next level.

Satisfaction Not Guaranteed

 

There's been a lot written, or made or whatever, about the myth of the tragic character who has everything but is willing to risk it all for the one empty space he's after. The man who has every opportunity to settle and be happy with what he's done but isn't finished until it feels perfect. The Jay Gatsby parable, the O. Henry type hero, the tragic hero who undoes himself. You see it with every celebrity, the people that keep chasing the high and forgetting what they have, til they look perfect, til they have everything. 

So by that metric I totally understand why, after winning two World Series' in a row, the Dodgers went and got Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker. They're not satisfied yet. They want Jordan Bulls numbers, Torre Yanks numbers, Belichick numbers, they want a dynasty because they have enough to procure it. I completely get that. Doesn't mean I have to enjoy it, but it's nice when something that seems mighty and powerful admits its shortcomings and actively does what it can to mend them, for all to see.

The Edwin Diaz acquisition points to a frightening truth about the Dodgers, that since parting ways with Kenley Jansen they've yet to find a truly terrific closing option. They went with Craig Kimbrel, arguably in a year where they didn't really need a closer, and he was mediocre. They brought up Evan Phillips, he had one terrific season then some injuries, and while he's stayed in LA the prevailing theory is that he's probably better off as a set-up man. They tried Tanner Scott last year, best available, and he had his weakest year yet, blowing saves and squandering the opportunity. Even Kirby Yates, the backup option that booted Ryan Brasier off the team, had a 5.25 ERA last year, and is hopefully still able to put in any work for this team.

So, again, with Scott, Yates and Phillips relegated to middle relief work, the Dodgers went with the best available bullpen option, this year being Mets stalemate Edwin Diaz. And it's a tricky conundrum, because  Edwin Diaz has, at many points, excelled as a closing pitcher. Both 2022 and 2025, Diaz displayed both ninth inning dominance and 30+ save years, something that seems all too rare. The saves totals were never terribly high in Queens because...I mean honestly a number of reasons but mainly the saves are more often to be blown than not with some of those teams. There's also just years in between where he was just...fine. Y'know, did his thing, maybe his ERA was closer to 4 than it should be.

Edwin Diaz is one of the best active closing options, and in an age where the closing position is more 'what have you done for me lately' than ever, the fact that he's kept this job for 10 years despite waning dominance is great. Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Josh Hader, they've all similarly had down years but they've always bounced back. And so has Diaz, even if it isn't always as pronounced. 

I say this because the Dodgers shelled out the extra money to ensure that they have a closing option, in Diaz, that works. But it shouldn't have come to this. Phillips should have been sustainable. Scott should have kept the momentum going. So even as they look to repeat as Champions for a third straight year, the Dodgers are still trying to plug this hole in the ninth with Edwin Diaz, and even then that's not guaranteed to be the working variable. 

At least with Kyle Tucker you get the sense that the success will happen from the jump. Tucker's in his prime, he had another excellent year with Chicago last year, he's a proven postseason bat, he's perfect for this team. Diaz, even with his track record, isn't a sure thing because no closer is a sure thing anymore. And the fact that Diaz, who's had some of the best seasons by a reliever in the past 10 years, is considered an erratic option comparatively--that says a lot. 

The Dodgers are banking on this to work, and for Diaz and Tucker to get them at least 2 more rings now that everybody else is nailed down. It's just a matter of whether or not another flaw becomes apparent, and if another team can work hard enough to exploit it.

The Black Hole on Second Base

 

What the Mariners will be doing with Brendan Donovan this season, after trading him for a bunch of people including Ben Williamson and Dutch switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, both makes absolutely no sense and tons of sense depending on how well you know their situation.

Donovan is a multi-instrumentalist, and has played second base, third base, left field, right field and shortstop at the MLB level, which is one of the reasons the Cardinals valued him, before...y'know...trading him away. His defense has routinely been good-but-not-great, but as an infielder with contact ability he's very valuable, and is definitely a crucial piece for Seattle, who can always afford to up their contact game. But going into this season, the plan seems to be to let Donovan start as the primary third baseman, despite 2nd base being his primary position to date, and continue to let Cole Young [and to a lesser extent Leo Rivas] mature at second base.

And it seems like a very odd move to break in Donovan at a position he's obviously played but isn't as well known at. It's like the Red Sox signing Hanley Ramirez to play the outfield, or the Mets signing Jorge Polanco to play 1st, or...the Mets signing Bo Bichette to play third, or...the Mets signing Clay Holmes to start ga-you may be noticing a theme here. But I see the reasoning on a few levels. Firstly, Donovan is that kind of multi-position guy to not be too fazed by a move to third, and also...second base has been very problematic for this team in recent memory.

Since...I would say 2018, Seattle has been where promising second base signings and trades go to die. You could trace it back to when the Mariners, in 2016, traded their prized 2nd base/SS prospect Ketel Marte to Arizona for Jean Segura, who was primarily a shortstop in Seattle. That move poisoned the well, and every subsequent 2nd baseman in Seattle experienced pain and misery upon their arrival. Starting with Dee Gordon, whose strong Miami years trailed off, as did his OPS and defensive ability. In 2020, the team went with Shed Long as the primary 2nd base option, and while he was a promising farmhand with contact potential, he hit .171, and then .198, given the opportunity, and never recovered. Many times over the course of the next few years, the M's would attempt to give Dylan Moore the starting 2nd base job, but he'd only excel when used as a bench bat. So in 2021, Moore as the main 2B option was so overwhelming that they traded for Abraham Toro, who was nice down the stretch but completely underwhelming in 2022. 

Then, starting in 2022, the Mariners made attempts to actually sign and field talent for 2nd base, which would be even more disastrous. Adam Frazier, after an all-star season in Pittsburgh and San Diego, hit .238 despite appearing in more games than any other Mariner. Kolten Wong, dealt for Toro ironically, was coming off a number of underrated contact seasons in Milwaukee only to hit .165 in 67 games, effectively ending his career. Jorge Polanco was next, and the interesting detail with Polanco is that, similar to Moore, he doesn't start really picking up until after he's moved to a DH option. As a 2nd baseman in 2024 he's decent, hitting .213 with 16 homers and 45 RBIs, but last year, as the primary DH, Polanco hit .265 with 26 homers and 78 RBIs. Prompting the misguided Mets contract. 

Lost in all this was the fact that Cole Young, an organizational gem, was decent enough in a call-up year, despite a .211 average in 77 games. A slow start is understandable, especially for a 21-year-old. So moving Donovan to 3rd to keep Young in the lineup means they have faith in him to break this curse. And honestly, at this rate, I trust them.

Because, I don't know if you recall this, but the Mariners used to have a similar black hole at the backstop, going back to when Dan Wilson left. From 2005 til the early part of this decade, the catching position was a revolving door of both replacement options and fleetingly-kept answers. Names like Welington Castillo, Omar Narvaez, Miguel Olivo, Yorvit Torrealba and John Jason made their way through as hole-plugging options that didn't amount to anything. At the same time, this team tried to find young catchers to build into career guys, but Kenji Johjima was a disappointment, Adam Moore never stuck in the majors, and Mike Zunino, admittedly the best they could come up with during this period, wasn't any good as a catcher. This period even had the saga of Mike Marjama, a decent young catching option who left baseball for charity work, then came back only to get slapped with a PED ban. Snakebitten doesn't even begin. So for a position like that to go from completely hopeless to in amazing shape thanks to some guy named Cal Raleigh...that proves that even something that feels cursed has hope.

So I hope Cole Young figures it out this year, and spends a long career at second in Seattle. It's the relief this team deserves. And if it's not him, hopefully they find the guy soon, even if it needs to be Brendan Donovan. Though I won't blame him for not immediately wanting to test fate.

On the Possibility of an American WBC Title, Now

 

[DISCLAIMER: I go into some...unconquered, on purpose, territory with this post, talking about current events. If this one isn't to your liking in that respect, I apologize. This had just been on my mind.]

I can't think about what the U.S. team is thinking about heading into the WBC. It's the most high-stakes low-stakes tournament possible.

Like, say you're Bobby Witt, or whoever. You're a charter member of the US team, a mid-lineup star, and you are being tasked with performing to the best of your ability, for your country, and then after winning this you have to immediately go back and perform to the best of your ability for the Royals in both what could be the last full season for a little while AND the a season that coincides with the 250th anniversary of the country. There are a lot of people who would really like the US to win some sports tournaments this year, considering the WBC is happening, and then the World Cup is happening in North America. And being very honest, there's more of a chance of a WBC Championship title than a FIFA World Title this year. 

Now, the US team has won a WBC before, in 2017. But the stakes were lower, this was before everyone knew who Ohtani was, and this was before it became the tentpole that it is now. Now you've got more of a drive for players to participate, and more pressure for the greats of the game to do it, even if it risks injury. And there's already been nonsense about insurance, teams not sending players out cause they worry they're gonna get hurt, and that's already lightened some roster loads. Yet I think that this is a point where, for some reason, some indistinct reason that isn't coming to mind somehow, the US needs a pride boost. And I think these guys have taken it to heart to embody the sort of patriotic, 'I love America' sensibility to capture the nation. Like apparently they're playing Toby Keith on busrides, going heavy on the patriotism and all of that. And...I say this respectfully, but...I dunno if that's the move, especially when a team that's supposed to reflect the sum of the nation's best ballplayers only has Byron Buxton and Aaron Judge as nonwhite representatives. 

I think this tournament happening right after the Olympics has added more pressure as well, cause there was something where people were representing the country on the world's stage and you saw a contrast of the ways that can be done. You had people all over looking at people like Alysa Liu or Jack Hughes and going 'why aren't they representing America the way I want them to?'. I think both the figure skating win and the hockey wins were good for the country for different reasons, but I think some wins were more reflective of the potential of the American experiment than others. And how that ties into patriotism, especially at this moment, made some wins easier to stomach than others. The immediate contrast between how someone reacts to winning an Olympic medal and then how they rationalize this as a degree of American patriotism could be stark at points. Because it can be argued that representing the country, and all that comes with it, means something different now.

And so that informs a lot of forethought about the WBC, and how a winning US squad will look now, after the Men's Hockey Team's win, in an era where not only is the US team evenly matched in this tournament but there is also the idea of a forthcoming women's baseball league, which will lead to an even larger conversation. What does it mean if this team wins now? Does it mean anything? Is it good for the game, for the country? 

I suppose the upside of this is you get people from the deepest reaches of the country. I think about guys like Mason Miller, who's a local hero in West Virginia for his time as a college athlete there. An old friend who grew up in that area followed Miller to the majors and cheered him on as he became the best relief asset in baseball. Everywhere you've got pockets of people who must have known one of these guys as they came up and got to see them make the majors. That is the American dream, to come from anywhere, from anything, and succeed on the world's stage. 

It's just very difficult to be all 'rah-rah, America's the greatest' right now. Even if there's enough people like Bryce Harper and Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt trying to craft the story of an American monolith that takes down any country in its path...I'm not entirely sure that's an especially helpful narrative at the moment. I'm not saying they should punt the World Baseball Classic, just keel over against the Czechia team or something, but...if they want to look like the heroes this tournament, they need to keep their perception in mind. The 2017 team was exciting because they represented the state of the game, and the country, in an optimistic way. If there's a way for the US team to do that now, they need to figure it out. Because right now, Japan winning is a better story, the Dominican Republic winning is a better story, Puerto Rico winning is a better story, even Czechia and their plumbers and dentists would be an unbelievable story. 

All of those teams don't dream about giving up a home run to Aaron Judge, they think about striking him out. So if we're gonna be the heroes again this time around, we're gonna need to earn it.

How Do You Get Anywhere?

 
Obviously the discourse surrounding the planned salary cap/floor has been completely normal and has been met with absolutely rational thinking. 

Right.

The players don't want a cap, the owners don't want a floor. Manfred has discussed a floor, who knows how high it'll be. The whole point is to incentivize small-market teams to actually build competitors and not be afraid to spend money on high assets. Already this past offseason, you've seen the Athletics, Orioles and Pirates spend more money than they have in years on genuine pieces to grow from, ranging from extended young players to contracted veterans. Obviously some did more than others, and the Pirates arguably should have done more of the extending, but a change does seem to be apparent.

And yet there still continues to be teams that are good, and will continue to be in the conversation, yet consistently let homegrown talent go for the sake of keeping the payroll low. The Brewers and Guardians may still compete this year, and both are expected to. The way both youth movements are going, they will be fine for a while. But this marks another year for both teams where stars have been traded, or left via free agency, and have been replaced with cheaper options. And that's not the direction teams should be going. There's running it back and then there's taking a running start and breaking into a stroll instead.

The Guardians' offseason was very 'business as usual' knowing them. No extreme moves, no big departures, but...that in itself is telling. In 2024, the Guardians made an ALCS, then they traded Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor and mostly 'ran it back'. Then in 2025, with mostly the same team and even more youth, they traded Shane Bieber midyear then somehow still won the division after an incredible September. And then...repeat. Running it back, relying on young stars, not building on it. On one hand, I sort of get it- signing the occasional free agent, like Eddie Rosario or Josh Bell, hasn't really worked for this team. Rhys Hoskins was a late-offseason signing that only happened because Dave Dombrowski foolishly didn't want him back. 

But on the other...the only way this team can ensure a more dominant regular season performance that doesn't need to rely on late momentum is by putting money into the team. Having a young team helps, but there are people in the league who could do better than a ton of these starters. Arias, Rocchio, Jones, Martinez...they're not proven MLB options right now. It's nice that the rotation looks better this year, and that Gavin Williams has finally proven himself as an MLB starter, but you're kinda hoping that Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick can do full seasons of what they all showcased for like a month. 

I forget who said this, but someone in an interview let on that Jose Ramirez was undervaluing himself in order to stay in Cleveland. As in, because he enjoyed the organization so much and saw loyalty towards it, he was intentionally not taking better money elsewhere. And this player said this as if it was a disparaging thing, like the optimal thing is asking for Shohei Ohtani money as a mid-level star. Jazz Chisholm will never get the contract he wants because he's limited in a few respects. Jose Ramirez could theoretically be making Ohtani money, but getting to play in Cleveland as a legend til he retires is more important to him than taking a paycheck somewhere he's not as certain about. Honestly, more players should be like Jose Ramirez. It doesn't excuse the Guardians refusing to pay other players, but at least the players they do pay have the right idea. 

Then you have the Brewers. The Brewers could have been a World Series team last year, and were unlucky enough to have to face the Dodgers in an NLCS. They succeeded where so many other Brewers teams failed, and built a strong enough squad to master the second half, even outdoing the Cubs late. In response to that finish, the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins, three crucial members of the team, to competitors. Trading Durbin and Collins felt really short-sighted, as they're both young players with a lot of upside. But the object in Milwaukee is to make room for other young talent, like Jett Williams and Jesus Made and Logan Henderson.

And that angle I sort of get. This farm system is popping out gold on the reg, then having absolutely no opportunity to play, oftentimes because of other prospect dumps. Durbin was from the Devin Williams trade [already undone], Joey Ortiz was from the Corbin Burnes trade [already undone], Chad Patrick was dealt for Abraham Toro, a deal no one remembers. And now you're seeing it happen again, as David Hamilton, who came over for Durbin, is now a favorite to start at third, meaning Williams might be waiting even longer here than he would have in Queens. 

But at the same time...if you have an opportunity to go 'that was our opportunity, we can't let it happen again', you have to go for more than that. There were tons of free agents available, and they wound up with Brandon Woodruff for one last ride essentially and Gary Sanchez. And we're back in rebuild mode essentially. Like 'well this MIGHT work, but who knows'. You're trying to outdo the Cubs, who CAN overspend on a competitor, and you're hoping the same luck that happened in August this year can happen again, without a portion of what made it possible. 

So now the pressure is on people like Chad Patrick, who was good last year but at least could be under Freddy Peralta, or Quinn Priester, who was a winning man for the Brewers for a while with a more varied lineup, or Andrew Vaughn, who finally figured it out at the plate midyear but saw the HRs drop over time, to repeat their luck. Everyone has said that if Jackson Chourio finally has an Acuna-style breakout year this is within reach, and I agree. The team wouldn't have signed him to a major contract before he'd even played a game if he didn't have the potential to be a team giant, and last year pointed in that direction. This team just needs to build on 2025, and hopefully they can do so with a lighter payroll, even as the Cubs reload theirs. 

I always want the small-market teams to do well. But the point is that under the current imbalance of power in the MLB, it's becoming harder and harder for them to do so. I want the Guardians and Brewers to do well, but I also want them to be able to afford sustained success. Hopefully that's at all possible.

World in Motion

 

Whatever picture has been crafted of the 30 MLB teams during the first couple weeks of spring training is now drastically altered due to the mass exodus of players warming up for the World Baseball Classic. I think they used to time this so that it'd happen earlier and the WBC guys would eventually rejoin the team squads in time for longer games and full-squad scrimmages. And now it's happening later and, as the MLB clubs ramp up spring action, they'll be doing so with incomplete squads. 

I think the good news about the White Sox heading into the next couple weeks is that they are not solely Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Teel. Maybe last year, or the year before, if those two players were taken out of the lengthened scrimmages and they had to develop a gameplan without those two guys, it'd be a little trickier. But the White Sox, somehow, have more of a team this year. Perhaps not enough to compete, but enough to not be a complete laughingstock.

First of all, this spring has confirmed that Murakami is the kind of contact DH that this team kinda needs. He's not all about the long ball, but he's got enough pop to get people home, and in droves. Murakami could have signed lots of places, and it's clear that it took his stock plummeting for him to land in Chicago, but everything about Murakami's demeanor tells me this is where he wants to be. He's not Shohei Ohtani, he's not 'I have to be the best'. Murakami didn't need LA money, he just wanted to be somewhere he could succeed, and he's crafty enough to see that in Chicago. So far, he's looking like an impressive piece for this team.

But even without him, the White Sox just have more depth this year. They're going in with Teel, Edgar Quero, Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery at the MLB level, and that's a really cool young core with a high ceiling and immediate perks. This season also means figuring out whether Brooks Baldwin and Miguel Vargas are transitional pieces or if they can actually factor into this team. I still think Vargas is just a placeholder guy that isn't meant to be a building block. Not everyone can wind up with an Anthony Rizzo or a Cedric Mullins immediately. And then they now have Austin Hays, who seems to thrive better in cities that aren't major or metropolitan for...some reason, so him in Chicago will be interesting. The rotation has been supplanted by Erick Fedde, as well as Anthony Kay post-overseas reinvention, so basically Erick Fedde 2 years ago. I'm hoping Fedde just thrived with these pitching coaches, cause he really couldn't figure it out last year. 

If all goes according to plan, this team will build enough of a base this March that, once Murakami comes back, he'll supplant the preexisting energy, and they'll be off to a decent start. Cause there's a lot more going on here, not even counting the potential call-ups of Braden Montgomery and Wikelman Gonzalez. Maybe Murakami knew something was coming and he wanted to be on the ground floor before it got big. And hopefully it goes better for him than it's gone for Masataka Yoshida.

Comeback Rookie of the Year

 

There have been a lot of unnecessary additions to rookie discourse, like teams intentionally keeping players down to control service time, Topps' unnecessarily early rookie cutoff only depicting Rookie of the Year stories that happen in the first one and a half months of the season, the entire 2020 season, where Devin Williams got an award for having a good August, and the very definition of what counts as a rookie season keeping players eligible for awards even after making a breakout impact. It's all a little bit broken, and it's kind of unfairly balanced against the players' side. I still don't think Luis Gil deserved a ROY award in 2024, because to me his rookie season was 2021, because that was the season where he set a rookie record. 

But what's really complicated talking about rookies now is the unnecessary conditioning of pitchers to throw hard in their teens and overexert themselves to the point where, by the time they hit the majors, they're a ticking time-bomb waiting for Tommy John surgery. Nobody works their way up anymore, nobody embraces craftsmanship. It's all about smoke, because it's all about longballs. All extremes. So the rookie of the year, if it's a pitcher, is a lot of the times 'which pitcher went the longest without getting hurt'. Luis Gil was that and he wasn't even a rookie. 

So it's gonna be very interesting to see how people talk about Andrew Painter this year. Andrew Painter is 100% a rookie, he's never played an MLB game, his likely Opening Day roster inclusion will mark his MLB debut. But with the way Painter's development has gone, I'm not even sure if this season will truly feel like a rookie campaign for him. Painter, a 2021 first-rounder, was looking MLB-ready for a 2023 debut, and then in Spring Training his arm started showing wear, and so he got Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2024, and was shaky in Lehigh Valley all last year, hence no call-up. If he had made the majors in 2023, if that damage was found a month or so later, then some of those 5.20 ERA Lehigh starts would have been major league starts, meaning 2026 would be primed for a comeback campaign, sort of like Casey Mize last year. 

But because Painter never reached the majors, his comeback season at 23 will also be his rookie season. Meaning if, by some chance, Painter starts 32 games with a 3 ERA and wins a Rookie of the Year, which is not impossible, it'll have some very interesting subtext, a rookie season with the energy of a post-TJ comeback season. How will it be judged? How will PAINTER be judged going forward? 

If any Phillies season would need a dominant Andrew Painter season, it would be this one. Ranger Suarez is gone, Zack Wheeler might still miss some starts, Aaron Nola might be past his prime, and it's really looking like Taijuan Walker might be relied upon for a bit. In a scenario where Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Nola and Walker are rounding out the Opening Day rotation, and the Phillies want to remain a match against the Mets and Braves, they need Painter as a great MLB option. It's a lot of pressure, yes, but seeing as Painter's been terrific went healthy, and went 13th overall for a reason, it could work out. The thing I think is troublesome is the fact that for the Phillies to retain dominance, they need Painter to get MLB hitting immediately, and I'm not 100% sure of that yet. 

The Phillies have the appearance of a team beckoning on diminishing returns, with no real new blood and a lot of core people hoping to shake off rumors of going past their prime. Andrew Painter, and for that matter Justin Crawford and the potential of an Aidan Miller debut, could quiet that. If there's a successful shift to the next era, the Phillies could remain a league superpower in the same way the Astros have, just persisting. It just takes a lot going right this year, and a full, healthy season from Painter is a huge part of that.

Reproducing the Unexpected

 

There's a colleague of mine who's had a whirlwind 6 months. His baseball team is the Blue Jays, and he got to see them make a World Series this year. And his football team is the Seahawks, and he got to watch them defy the odds and win a Super Bowl. That's a lot of good stuff in a small period of time, especially after the Jays' last WS appearance was over 30 years ago and the Seahawks' last Super Bowl appearance was over 10 years ago. A decade of nothing and then everything at once sure is a nice change of pace.

I think that one of those two teams has built enough to engineer playoff pushes and potential championship campaigns for the next few years. Unfortunately it's not the Blue Jays. 

The Blue Jays' 2025 season, as triumphant as it was, happened because of so many other factors. The momentum the Jays found was sustained even as the Yankees, Mariners and Tigers failed to expand on their strong regular seasons. The approach the Jays entered the season with was altered, and once the team fully favored the contact platooning and bare-bones battery, nobody could really outclobber that. Any power perk the team thought they'd get by signing Anthony Santander was less important than the contact perks of giving Ernie Clement, Myles Straw, Addison Barger, Nathan Lukes and Davis Schneider more playing time. Lukes accomplished more at DH than Tony Taters did, which was a reality the Jays were not really thinking of last February. 

The 2025 Jays worked because nobody was quite prepared for them, and nobody could handle a full-season momentum like they could. But with every runaway surprise team comes the possibility of diminishing returns. There's two ways this team goes forward. Either it's the pie in the sky way, where this IS sustainable, Trey Yesavage is exactly who they think he is, nobody gets injured and everything falls in line exactly how it did in 2025...or the cynical view, where the lack of Bo Bichette, the overpaying for Dylan Cease and thereby losing out on Kyle Tucker, the steepening competition in the AL East and the inevitable atrophy of the deliberate recreation of success keep the team from making much of a dent in the overall picture of 2026. Both are possible. One more than the other.

Eyes are going to be on Ernie Clement to have a bigger season this year. There's no Bo, I'm guessing this'll be a down Springer year, and the team needs Clement to step up and continue his multi-tool contact work. It's just not clear if Clement is going to be that guy or not. He'll be 30 this year, he's still an ace defender, but he's never been the full package at the plate. Last year he had 151 hits, a career high, in addition to highs in the runs and doubles categories. He'll likely be starting at second due to Kazuma Omamoto taking third, meaning Andres Gimenez will be moving to short. It might not click immediately for any of them. Either Clement steps up and takes a larger stake in this team, or he continues on as a 'good piece' without much further use. That's gonna be the big takeaway from this coming season, whether the carousel of 'good pieces' that got the team so far into the playoffs have staying power beyond the 2025 season. I'd love for Addison Barger to cement himself, but will he? Same with Lukes. 

The rotation, at the very least, is less of a worry because there's already so many contingency plans. It's gonna be Cease-Gausman-Yesavage-Berrios-Ponce, Bieber will come back eventually, Scherzer will surface when he's ready and Lauer is the longman who can take starts if need be. That's a very good plan. There's also enough guys in their prime that there's not an extreme atrophy worry [though Gausman coooould take a step back]. If anything, the pitching will keep them competitive. But if what worked in 2025 stalls in 2026, they might need to crumple and toss again at some point.

With the talent they have on that roster, and the potential they've showed in the playoffs, the Blue Jays are still a formidable team. Clearly. They kept Vlad Jr. for a reason. I'm just not sure if the AL East is theirs right now, let alone the AL title. But we'll see I suppose.

The Art of Running it Back

 

Spring Training is one of those times of extreme optimism. Everything's good, everything's promising, cause no games have been played yet. It could be anybody's year, and that includes us. Right now, there are 30 valid storylines being concocted towards a championship outcome, and since it's still February there's really no ruling out any of them. And you can make the joke of 'well, we can rule out the Rockies', and yeah, probably. But the Pirates, A's and White Sox are usually counted out and even they have more going on this year. 

But it's easier to look like a new team when you've made substantial moves towards a championship. The Pirates got some genuine big pieces this year, for once. The White Sox got Murakami plus a TON of solid options at multiple positions. The A's actually put money into the roster and have a team for the next few years. If your plan is just to 'run it back', then you're gonna get people saying 'they don't want to win'. And running it back can still be a valid way forward, the Dodgers mostly ran it back last year and it did well for them. But certain fanbases demand some effort. The Phillies fans by me are somewhat infuriated that the plan to fix an aging core is to simply run it back, forgetting that A.) the team strengthened its bullpen and has at least three organizational cornerstones hitting the majors this year, B.) they got to keep Schwarber's offense and Realmuto's defense, and C.) they don't have to be stuck with either Bo Bichette's defense or Nick Castellanos's anything. The general plan is 'run it back' but they still fixed what killed the team. 

However, not everyone is so lucky. Some teams just decide to run it back and insist they're still moving forward.

The Arizona Diamondbacks want the big takeaway from this offseason to be, 'see, we kept Ketel Marte, Merrill Kelly and Zac Gallen'. Forgetting that literally all three were highly sought after by other teams. The D-Backs were actively shopping Marte, even coming close to a deal with Seattle that backfired when the M's refused to part with Cole Young. Perhaps knowing that trading their young, upstart 2nd baseman to Arizona for a veteran rounding a top tier year didn't work well for them in the past, so there was no use getting Ketel Marte if they'd be giving up another, younger Ketel Marte. Kelly returning to AZ was a surprise, and Gallen came back only after several teams, including the Cubs and Orioles, balked at the suggested number he had in mind. There is a universe where the D-Backs lose all three players, and possibly even Perdomo as well [he was reportedly shopped too] and still have to play the 'we're still running it back' game. 

In addition to the three players the D-Backs kept that they almost didn't, the only real players the team brought on were 'let's see what they have left' guys. Mike Soroka keeps being brought onto teams with the belief that what was glimpsed in 2018 could return, but we're still waiting for that. Carlos Santana will be 40 this year, and he's almost completely lost his ability to hit for power. And Nolan Arenado...no one is quite sure what he has left. He wasn't *terrible* for the Cardinals last season, but it was the most human year of his career, and the most injury-plagued one too. His defense is still above average, but that bat isn't what it was, and unless the soon-to-be-35-year-old has something else up his sleeve, he'll be a high priced defensive upgrade that will exist to keep Jordan Lawlar from starting [again]. Arenado is no longer the boost that he was, and he may have more in common with Evan Longoria in 2023...though Longo had a better team around him then.

The D-Backs running it [diamond]back in a year where the Dodgers are still expected to win the division and the Padres and Giants are still expected to compete is an odd move. It's better than fully giving up, and I think they know they've been right there the past few years and could boost over, but I'm not sure if it'll work this time.

The Astros, meanwhile, have a similar 'run it back' strategy even if some substantial changes have been made. Jesus Sanchez, a crucial deadline pickup from last year, was dealt for Joey Loperfido, and Tatsuya Imai was brought in as a starting option. However, the issue with running it back from 2025 is that this year, the majority of the contingency plans are in camp together with the people they subbed in for with injuries. Which means Brandon Walter, Spencer Arrighetti and Cristian Javier are competing with Jason Alexander, A.J. Blubaugh and Colton Gordon for rotation spots, in addition to newcomers Tatsuya Imai and Mike Burrows, plus preexisting locks Hunter Brown, Lance McCullers and...wait, what? How...that's like 10 people fighting for 5 spots. 

Like, I get the idea of preparing for injuries by putting in contingency starters, but you're now ensuring like 5 other people who are MLB-ready will either be doing long relief work or starting in Triple-A. Mike Burrows was doing fairly well in Pittsburgh, he gets traded to Houston and now we're not even sure if he's gonna make the team. I actually think he's got a nice shot to make the rotation, but then who doesn't? Is Jason Alexander getting cut? This was supposed to be the summer of George!

More confusing still is what the Astros plan on doing with their lineup. Last year at the deadline they traded for Carlos Correa, opting for a 2016 reunion in the wake of Isaac Paredes's injury. Paredes eventually came back and they traded off for the postseason push...of a postseason that didn't actually happen for this team. This year, the plan seems to be starting Correa at third...which, again was only due to convenience last year, then starting Paredes at DH, and...for some reason getting Yordan Alvarez to play left field everyday. I don't think that's sustainable. You're saying you'd rather have Alvarez's defense than Paredes's, which I don't completely agree with. If anything, Paredes should get more reps at first, as Christian Walker may be on the downslope.

It illuminates the problem with running it back, because if you're running it back with everyone who was there last time, without, like...letting people go and standing down the roster to an actual manageable unit, then it's gonna be chaos! Then deserving people aren't gonna be able to start, they're gonna ask to be traded and the league opinion of the organization is gonna go down further, even after the cheating. It just makes no sense to me, at least at this stage of the spring. I do know the Astros have a way of working things out, even if it doesn't look possible on paper. So even with all this they could still compete this year. 

This is why I'm not a GM. I'm way too pragmatic about it. There's so many moves that don't make sense to me because I only see it from the outside perspective. So maybe running it back works for one of these teams, or maybe both. Or, y'know...I'm right, and then some team can hire me to be assistant GM. 

2026: Mind the Elephant Dung

 

It's not as if the MLB hasn't done a 'let's pretend everything's normal' season before. You saw it in 1995. You saw it in 2020 and 2021, after the pandemic. You saw it after free agency began in the 70s. There is always going to be an effort, whenever there is something that, in a just world, would lead to work stoppage or a deliberation, for the people who lie and die by the revenue to go 'okay, from the top, just like the last time'. 

More than even 2023, the league seems headed for not just a players' strike, but a complete lockout. The wealth disparity between owners has become ridiculous, with teams like the Dodgers able to routinely buy championships, and teams like the Guardians [who, keep in mind, also have CEOs with plenty of money] not at all able to compete. The players are gonna go towards the best offers to sustain their lifestyles, and the guys with the bigger pockets are gonna have those, so they're gonna keep winning. Kyle Tucker, Dylan Cease and Tyler Soderstrom will be making Shohei Ohtani money for their solid but not overly spectacular gameplay. And so the owners' immediate response is, 'okay, let's pay everyone less and do a salary cap'. Not to actually put more money into the team and try as much as the top guys are. No, bring them down and justify their lack of spending. 

It's 100% true that every MLB player, and MiLB player, deserves the right to earn enough to make a living. But if there's a pay disparity, the workers should not be blamed or penalized, the owners and CEOs should. Without players, there is no product, as the owners will likely find out in a year's time. If you want to bring in revenue, you need to pay your star players, or any players, what they are worth. We know what happens when an owner doesn't do this, and it leads to a mass talent exodus that makes John Fisher only the SECOND-worst owner in A's history. Now, it's also an issue when the lack of talent on the field, and the lack of ticket sales, doesn't provide an incentive for owners to spend because they own 3 or 4 other things with more immediate revenue. 

Regardless, something needs to be done. I'm of the opinion that a salary floor should be implemented above all else, to incentivize the Bob Nuttings and Pohlads of this world to actually build teams. Some cap might need to be in there as well None of the players' union people want a salary cap, even with Tony Clark conveniently leaving his position ahead of the union a year or so before deliberations begin [it's still bad what he did, I just think the timing of it coming out is really suspicious]. You have two stubborn camps, one with money and one without, and like in 2023, and 1994, you can kind of guess who's gonna cave first. Whether or not the solution will actually help anyone, that's another thing entirely.

But with all this a year away, and with the tensions between the owners and players still relatively high [remember, Bryce Harper nearly beat the shit out of Rob Manfred last year], there's still a season of baseball that needs to be played. Which means everyone needs to act like there isn't gonna be a work stoppage next year and deliver an exciting season. Easy, right?

There's obviously a lot of great storylines to follow this season. The Cubs are certainly one of them. Yes, they lost Kyle Tucker, but they gained Alex Bregman, still an elite third baseman and an upgrade from Matt Shaw in several ways. Bregman-Swanson-Hoerner-Busch may be one of the best infields in the league, on a count of how much can be produced, and how much value you're getting. The Cubs have reportedly tried to trade Nico Hoerner, but I wouldn't dream of it considering how valuable he's been for them, and how consistent he's been since 2022. With the Brewers looking to continue their sleeper-hit status and the Reds looking to compete without overdoing it, the Cubs are the favorite for 1st in the NL Central. Y'know, like last year. Is this the team that actually gets over the hump?

A lot of really cool stuff could happen in this season. Konnor Griffin might be ready in Pittsburgh, and that team might have enough to sneak into the conversation. The Athletics might be a playoff team this year, and have the contracts to last them through the Vegas premiere. Murakami might be the piece that gets the White Sox out of 'laughable' status. Andrew Painter might FINALLY get to start MLB games. Ohtani and Judge might chase 50 again. There's all sorts of promise and excitement, and I really hope this year can deliver, even if it's looking pretty likely that we might not get a full season next year. 

My Unofficial Hall of Ballot for 2026

 The wild part about collecting and following baseball for 19 odd years has been seeing players that were active when I was finding my place in the baseball atmosphere now being discussed for Hall of Fame enshrinement. Virtually everyone on the current ballot was around when I was collecting, and a couple cases, namely Ryan Braun and Hunter Pence, began their careers the very year I started actively collecting new products. The first big shift was seeing Greg Maddux and Frank Thomas get in, cause those guys were just wrapping up their careers yet still loomed large. And then when Jeter, Halladay and Rivera got in it was a sense of seeing some of my heroes whose primes I witnessed firsthand getting immortalized.

And so now, we've reached a Hall of Fame ballot featuring guys who retired as recently as 2020. That's a sobering thought. We're beginning to run thin on guys from the 2000s, though at least two of them will be getting in today. We're also headed towards a bumper crop of surefire heroes of the 2010s, one of which is coming immediately next year and a few more of which will be first ballot submissions between 2028 and 2029. So this year is...ultimately another 'catch-up' year, with no first year standouts [the nearest HOF bet of the newcomers likely has to do another 5 or so years on the ballot in order to get the traction], and the majority of the votes going to two guys who have 'done their time', in a sense. 

Like usual, I'll allow myself the usual guidelines of Hall of Fame voters, despite the fact that no one in their right minds would ever let me cast an actual ballot. I can go up to ten names, and I don't think I'll do all ten. Fundamentally, I've counted out anyone suspected of steroid use [even Andy Pettitte, sudden surge notwithstanding], and I've looked long and hard in order to separate the 'legendary' cases from the 'very good' cases. There are some people on this unofficial ballot that I didn't think were worthy until the case was made cumulatively, and there'll be people on this ballot that the case hasn't been made for yet but could come very soon.

So, as usual, we'll start with a tough sell that seems to be becoming less and less tough:

Bobby Abreu:

Last week when Kyle Tucker signed with the Dodgers, a lot of people I know were complaining about the size of the per-year dollars he'd be getting, a sign that teams are paying some guys more money than they really deserve, which I do think is an issue generally. But the line that was used was 'the Dodgers just spent 70 million a year for Bobby Abreu'. And like...that's kind of an insult to Bobby Abreu. Cause you're saying that if Abreu was around today he'd be one of the most valued players in the game. Because he played during the 2000s, and for a middling Phillies team for most of his career, it's impossible to make a case for Abreu as a game changer. But the way I look at it is that now that Tony Oliva and Dick Allen are in, two guys with consistent contact ability over a long period of time, without the 'omg' stats of their contemporaries, it's been proven that if you're a generational hitter with no atrophy for more than 5 or so years, there's a case to be made for you. Bobby Abreu had a 41.6 WAR from 1998 to 2004, with a .308 average, 1212 hits, 203 stolen bases and 3 100 RBI seasons. Frustratingly he didn't win his first gold glove or make his first All Star team til his 30s. The tell is that in his prime, I'd say with certainty that anybody would have wanted Abreu on their team, as the guy was a swiss army knife of usefulness. He's trending slightly upward this year, but I'm not sure if he'll have accumulated the votes by 2030. Still, can't deny what a great player he was.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 15%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 50%

Carlos Beltran:

I think around 2013 or so, people were convinced that even if Beltran wasn't a first-ballot guy, he definitely had a chance. And this was in a period where even Adrian Beltre wasn't a lock. Carlos Beltran went from being a jack of all trades contact speedster in Kansas City to being a perennial playoff threat with the Astros, Mets and Cardinals. He finished his career with 435 home runs, 2725 hits, 7 100+ RBI seasons and, dubiously, a World Series ring. I completely agree with the stigma of the cheating robbing him of even a second or third year entry. But now it just seems like we're done kidding ourselves. The 2017 sign-stealing scandal was messed up, and there was a possibility he would have taken that mentality to the Mets in 2020. But, as opposed to the steroid abusers that have evaded induction, the sign-stealing takes only a year off of Beltran's career, and the worst year of his career at that. Taking 2017 out of the equation, he's still a Hall of Famer, and he's still a true 2000s legend. 

Team of Induction: Kansas City Royals

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 98%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%

Cole Hamels:

You're gonna notice that there are a lot of 2008 Phillies on my ballot. There may be a slight bias, but at the same time, it's not like I did this for the 2009 Yankees. You never saw Alex Rodriguez on one of these, or Mark Teixeira, or Andy Pettitte or A.J. Burnett. Next year you're not gonna see Cano on here. But those 2000s Phillies teams had so many special, imitable guys that managed to have careers to match. Cole Hamels was one of them. Initially you may not read him as a wall-to-wall all-timer starter, but as many people have written about this year, the definition of the Hall of Fame starter has changed because nobody's starting 35 games a year anymore, nobody's going more than 6 innings and nobody's going as long without an injury as they used to. Cole Hamels is one of the last of that generation of consistent big game pitchers, because from 2007 to 2016, he was one of the most valuable pitchers in the game. During that run, Hamels had a 46.5 WAR, a 3.26 ERA, 1977 strikeouts, 127 games and 7 shutouts, including a no-hitter at Wrigley to cap off his Phillies career. Hamels had 7 postseason wins for the Phillies, including a shutout. and is in the rare breed of player to win NCLS MVP and World Series MVP in the same season. Cole Hamels isn't gonna go in this year, but I do think he has a case, and I think a lot of BBWAA voters have picked up on this as well.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 20%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 72%

Felix Hernandez:

Felix Hernandez is one of the best pitchers of the 2010s. His contemporaries are all locks. Kershaw's getting in. Greinke's getting in. Sale is most likely getting in. deGrom might eventually. Felix, when he was on, was better than arguably all of them except for Kershaw. From 2007 to 2015, Hernandez had 127 wins, 1889 Ks and a 3.00 ERA. What a goshdarned run. Dude struck out 200 or more every year from '09 to '14. He won a Cy Young by just not allowing runs, and nearly won another one with a better Mariners team [Kluber kinda deserved it that year though]. The post-30 drop-off is real, but as I'm literally about to discuss, that's not a vote-killer anymore. It's looking like this year has greatly buttressed Felix's case, and he may be only a couple years away. In my opinion it can't come soon enough.

Team of Induction: Seattle Mariners

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 30%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 80%

Andruw Jones:

The other 'we're done kidding ourselves' one this year. Andruw Jones, from 1996 to 2006, was the reason the Braves kept competing and making NLCSs, and the reason why the team didn't completely decay once Jones, Maddux and Glavine got older. You NEED a young guy who can do anything to come up right when your team's getting old, and Jones was that guy. Incredible defensive outfielder, incredible power hitter. In 2005 he had 51 homers and 128 RBIs, and this was after years of 30 homer/100 RBI campaigns. It was, almost like Jose Abreu, the 'cherry on top' season. And yes, it has been established that he completely hit a wall after 30, but the Hall of Fame doesn't seem to mind that anymore. As we're gonna see next year, the HOF can handle a small sample size if what happened during that run was top class, and I think now it's clear Jones was that good. Part of me thinks we needed the full case to develop, cause I certainly didn't think this when he came onto the ballot, but it's great that it's finally happened.

Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves

% Chance of 2025 Induction: 88%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: 100%

Chase Utley and Jimmy Rollins:

I have grouped these two together because they are both valid HOF cases for almost completely different reasons. Utley was overwhelmingly excellent for a 5 year period and coasted everything else off of that, while Rollins was steadily good for his whole 15 years and was nice enough, and level-headed enough, to let that do all of the work. The biggest argument towards Utley getting in, as of a month ago, is 'you idiots voted in Jeff Kent despite being replacement level for half his career and arguing with the whole league'. Chase Utley's biggest statistical serve is his 2005-2009 run, where he had a cumulative 39.7 WAR, a .301 average, 146 home runs and 875 hits. This was also during his '5 straight All Star Games' run, and the 2008 postseason is right in that range. Jeff Kent was league-leader-tier for a far shorter time than that and he's in now. Utley should be in. So what if he pissed people off? Apparently that's not a dealbreaker anymore. As for Rollins, he was a perennial all-star and gold-glover at SS, won an MVP in 2007 just by showing up everyday and contact-hitting like hell, has 470 career steals and 2455 career hits, and was an important, multifaceted piece of the Phillies for 15 years. He's probably the biggest reach of anybody on this ballot, but he was consistent, versatile and a clubhouse leader. Utley's more likely of the two to get in, but J-Rol should not be slept on.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

% Chance of 2025 Induction: (Utley) 72% (Rollins) 18%

% Chance of Eventual Induction: (Utley) 100% (Rollins) 45%

That's all I'm doing this year. Buehrle and K-Rod are on the line for me but not enough for 2026. I'm thinking Beltran and Jones are in and Utley will come close but fall just short.