Will This Be Goldy's Year?

 

The St. Louis Cardinals currently have two great players that have never won an MVP and one great pitcher that's never won a Cy Young. One of them has got to win this year. Right?

Of the three, I think Adam Wainwright has the lowest probability of winning an award this year. It's not impossible, it's just unlikely. He's having a great season, a 5-4 record, 2.73 ERA, 48 Ks, but I think if the sportswriters are gonna give Cy Young votes to a 40 year old this year, it's gonna be Justin Verlander. That's just how it works. 

And then there's the other two, Goldschmidt and Arenado, two of the best players of the last 10 years, both playing on the same team and having great years. Arenado had a blistering April and slowed down a little last month. He currently has only 10 home runs, 39 RBIs, a .272 average and a 2.7 WAR.

I say 'only' because Paul Goldschmidt has lapped him and is having a season for the ages. 12 home runs, 47 RBIs, a .341 average and a 3.1 WAR. That's right. The longtime first baseman anchor and guy who has finished in the top 3 MVP voting three times [twice more than Arenado] might be cockblocking Arenado from an MVP FROM WITHIN HIS OWN TEAM.

The trophy case might not show it, but Paul Goldschmidt has had a hell of a career so far. 6-time All Star, 4 time Silver Slugger, 4-time Gold Glove, career 53.8 WAR, and he's only having below-average fielding numbers NOW, at 34. And they're not even that much below average. Goldy is also 8 home runs away from 300, and 26 RBIs away from 1000. He will likely pass both marks this year. And he is currently leading the NL in doubles, average, total bases and OPS. Remember, last year a guy had an OPS over 1 and he ended up winning the NL MVP.

Now, Goldschmidt's competition would be a few other people who've never won an MVP, like Manny Machado, Ronald Acuna and Jeff McNeil, as well as a few who have, like Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Bryce Harper. Right now, Goldy is miles ahead of pretty much all of them, and neck and neck with people like Machado and Betts. If the season ended at the half it would probably be Betts, but Goldschmidt can easily keep the momentum going and outlast the LA outfielder for the trophy. With the first half numbers I'm seeing from the guy, it's definitely possible. 

The Cardinals themselves could very well overtake the 1st place Brewers in the next few days. If the Cardinals can power themselves out of 2nd place, maybe Paul Goldschmidt can too.

Coming Tonight: A reliever-turned-starter for a team that's dropping like a brick.