I do this every year, and while my prediction skills aren't exactly expert level, I figured it wouldn't make much sense to start now.
So yeah, the Home Run Derby's tonight in Seattle. I kinda miss when they'd make an effort to get 4 NL guys and 4 AL guys, but apparently all the NL guys they asked turned them down, so we have 6:2. What's great about this era of the derby is that you've got all these long-running storylines and lineage to these, and things to expect and look forward to.
Tonight, we've got a fun assortment of certified home run hitters, new standouts, and people whose appearance on this roster surprised me. So I'm gonna try and figure out who's winning this based entirely off of educated guesses. Let's go:
Round One: Luis Robert Jr. vs. Adley Rutschman
Who Should Win: Logically, Robert. I was certain he'd be a starting OF for the AL this year, and while that didn't happen, it's clear that Robert's hitting has been one of the best developments of the year. I think of the two, Robert's the more proven home run hitter, even if Rutschman has been gaining momentum recently. Honestly, this one might be close, because these are two HRD newbies, and both could outdo my expectations.
Who Will Win: I have a feeling once Luis Robert gets the hang of the Home Run Derby, he'll be a standout, so probably him.
Round One: Randy Arozarena vs. Adolis Garcia
Who Should Win: Garcia, as he's more known for his homers than Randy is. Garcia's hit 81 homers since his 2021 breakout, Randy has averaged 20 per season. On paper, I think Adolis Garcia looks like the more fearsome candidate.
Who Will Win: And yet I'm also getting a feeling that Garcia could be the one can't-miss type that does miss, and Randy Arozarena will outdo him without overexerting himself. It's an upset, but with Arozarena as unpredictable as he is, it could definitely happen.
Round One: Julio Rodriguez vs. Pete Alonso
Who Should Win: Perhaps the guy who's won two of these might be the favorite going in. This is the one matchup everybody's gonna be talking about tonight, because these two squared off last year, it was explosive, and Julio edged out Alonso even after Alonso's incredible progress in the Derby. And what's more, I PREDICTED HE WOULD. Julio beating Pete was a rare Jordan prediction that was spot-on. It was all because I saw the momentum that Julio had at that point. So on paper, Alonso is the better hitter.
Who Will Win: It goes down to momentum again, and while Rodriguez has been hot recently, Alonso has more home runs and has been doing more lately. He's also got 26 homers right now, while Julio was tabbed less for his HR total and more for his status as a Mariners hero. I say Alonso wins the rematch. Controversial, yes, but it's how I see this going.
Round One: Mookie Betts vs. Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Who Should Win: Before this season, this would be easy. Guerrero is a trained long ball man, he's had a history of hitting 'em out, and he's done the Derby before and done well with it. Betts is more of a contact guy who's less known for his power. Guerrero would be the natural favorite.
Who Will Win: This year, though, is a little different, as Betts has 26 homers right now and has hit a ton of them in the last week, while this is a lesser Vlad Jr. season. On the basis of momentum, I think Betts will win. There's a chance Vlad uses this to get hot and takes off like no one would believe, but I'm going with Betts because it follows the trajectory of the season so far.
Round Two: Luis Robert vs. Randy Arozarena
Who Should Win: Robert, because he has more home runs and is the more logical home run hitter.
Who Will Win: Randy Arozarena, because I just have this feeling that Randy's gonna be the guy who no one thinks is gonna do well and just fools everybody. Probably one of the most underrated players in the game right now. So maybe everyone underrates him here and he proves them wrong. I will say, though, that this bracket might go to a tiebreaker.
Round Two: Mookie Betts vs. Pete Alonso
Who Should Win: Alonso, because he has more experience and might be one of the best HRD participants since Griffey.
Who Will Win: ...yeah, probably Alonso still. Betts is gonna put up a ton, but I don't see him outdoing Alonso. I will say, though, that if he does, it would be kind of awesome. Mookie Betts already has some excellent career credentials, and might be on the way to another MVP, but if he somehow wins a Home Run Derby on the merits of his surprise power season, it'd be incredible. Ultimately, though, an Alonso clincher is more likely.
Who Should Win: Alonso, with all things considered.
Who Will Win: ...damn, this might be a long round. Both of them might go for a while, and it may just comes down to who gets tired first. And as Alonso has been injured more recently, I'm gonna say that Randy Arozarena sneaks past him and wins a Home Run Derby. It's not an outcome I want, but I just have a feeling nobody's gonna be able to stop him this year.
So, the way I have it going, Randy Arozarena wins a Home Run Derby. But remember, I am famously terrible at predicting things, so watch it be Rutschman.
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