The 'So Close' Response

 
Two of the most inexplicably exciting stories heading into the 2023 postseason concerned the Miami Marlins and the Cincinnati Reds. The Marlins had just lost their marquee players and were starting over with a mixture of homegrown guys and contracts, including recently-traded-for Josh Bell and Jake Burger. The Reds were once the butt of the league and were slowly coming back, thanks to their incredible youth movement and players like Elly de la Cruz, Andrew Abbott and Christian Encarnacion-Strand. Both seemed like fun playoff spoilers in a field of potential juggernauts. In all actuality, the Reds petered off before the end of September and the Marlins were faced with a three game series against the unstoppable Phillies home crowd. 

So going into 2024, with the scales sort of refreshed and both clubs wiser, we get the rebuttal. 

The Marlins technically have the most to draw from, as they actually did make the playoffs, and finished with the same record as the eventual NL Champion Diamondbacks. They also suffered the most immediate loss, with not only key players like Jorge Soler, Dylan Floro, Joey Wendle and Garrett Hampson leaving in transactions, but Sandy Alcantara, the staff ace, looking to skip the season entirely. 

As a result, the Marlins' rotation is a bit shakier than it has any reason to be. The team seems to be set with Jesus Luzardo, Trevor Rogers and the newly-promoted A.J. Puk at the head of the rotation, but with Edward Cabrera and Eury Perez struggling with injuries, the back half seems murky at best. The idea is to go with organizational options like Ryan Weathers and Max Meyer, but those two especially have struggled at the MLB level recently. You also have to remember that Sixto Sanchez is actually healthy this year, and has been ramping up to return to the majors again, but the plan with him right now seems to use him as a bullpen piece, which...fine, be anticlimactic. The bottom line is that the Marlins' rotation is concerningly uneven, and with the team lacking the sufficient funds to go out and grab somebody like, at the very least, Michael Lorenzen, this is gonna be what they go with for a bit.

The good news is that the lineup itself could be enough to not completely bottom out in April. Josh Bell, Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm and Jesus Sanchez are looking at great years. Nick Gordon, Dane Myers and Jon Berti have looked hot out of camp. And the new additions like Tim Anderson, Christian Bethancourt and Vidal Brujan do point towards some intriguing developments this year. I'm not wholly convinced on them til something entirely clicks with this version of the team, but they could definitely do some damage.

On the other hand, the Reds seem to have solved their biggest problem from 2023: pitching. Last year their pitching options were so unreliable that they were dipping into the back shelves of their starting development. Everybody got hurt, the people they brought up to replace them got hurt, and that factor doomed them towards the stretch. So it's the opposite of the Marlins: they're going from injury disasters to durability. Which is a nice look for them.

The Reds' potential rotation seems to be Greene-Lodolo-Ashcraft-Montas-Abbott. There's still other names floating around the outsides, like Brandon Williamson and Nick Martinez, but those five seem to be the answers this year. And if all of them stay healthy? Damn. 

Granted, it seems to be a lot to ask for a lot of these guys, especially Montas, who appeared in New York so sparingly since the 2022 trade from Oakland that I don't think I ever really got used to him in pinstripes. If Montas somehow strings together a great campaign for the Reds...well good for him. Ashcraft is coming off an injury-plagued campaign, but he seems to have his stuff again; same with Lodolo, who's ramping back up. Greene and Abbott hopefully will provide some stability this year, and I really don't want to see them hit the IL with how hard they're throwing.

The best thing you can say about the Reds this year is that they've overprepared. They have multiple valid answers at most positions, and have a flexible lineup where they can succeed in multiple different ways. The key example concerns Matt McLain, who's not definite for Opening Day. If he's out for a bit, the Reds have Jonathan India and Elly de la Cruz at both his positions. You're still great there. It honestly surprised me, by the way, that the Reds re-signed India, as it seemed like the young infield was evolving without the need for him, but they've used India and Jeimer Candelario as ways to buttress the infield while filling things in over time with the kids. They're also phasing Spencer Steer into an outfield role if CES wants to play 1st, which could be the way. 

The other issue is T.J. Friedl, who could be out for a bit with a recently-surfaced injury. Alright, then the outfield's Will Benson-Jake Fraley-Steer. That's still pretty good. Maybe a little lacking in versatility but still very good. There are enough backups that are still A options that the Reds don't entirely worry me this year. They've prepared for so many outcomes, and have enough young guys to still look intimidating for a while after this year. Heck, even Noelvi Marte getting busted for PEDs didn't worry me, as that...takes out a 3rd base option, and he'd have been, like, 3rd in line anyhow.

The Reds are looking to make the leap, like the Orioles did last year, and I think they will in 2024. Hopefully they have better luck, and a stronger second half, this time around.