Candy Coated

 

A team with a guy stealing every base in the league, a hitter with a consecutive hitting streak, and two pitchers that no one can hit...is under .500 while the Cardinals with a median age of like 35 are over .500 in 2nd. This is hellish.

The NL Central race is great because pretty much all four lower teams are on equal footing, but the problem is that the Reds, Pirates and Cubs will start winning and then lose even more games and wind up flat on their ass again. And the only team that's actually making headway are the frigging Cardinals, a team I never want to do well because they always decide to do so midway through the year rather than actually being good the whole way like a normal team. The closest to a good team of those lower three are the Pirates, but they'll just blow games right when they're getting good, and not get much higher in the standings, despite having Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz all surging.

The Reds, though, might be the single most shockingly bad team of the competitors. By all accounts, they should be good. Elly de la Cruz is having an excellent season. Hunter Greene and Andrew Abbott are all excellent. Jonathan India's on a streak to end all streaks. Jeimer Candelario's gotten hot in the last month and he's piled up 14 homers and 39 RBIs. And yet despite the insanely hot start to the month, the Reds have been stop-start ever since. Just plodding along, basically.

The main issue, as it was last year, is rotation durability. Nick Lodolo, after some outstanding stuff, is hurt again. Graham Ashcraft is back but the Pirates clobbered him. They're going with Carson Spiers for the fifth spot, and while he's better than he was last year, he's still not to the quality of Greene or Abbott. And Frankie Montas, who began the year with some strong starts, has evened out to a 5 ERA. This is where not having Brandon Williamson, or even Lodolo, feels evident. The lineup is similar, with CES, Matt McLain and ONCE AGAIN T.J. Friedl casting a shadow over this team. 

And look, clearly they're trying. The core here does work, and this team can power-hit. But with lesser Spencer Steer, sub-.200 Will Benson, and many replacement level hitters like Nick Martini and Stuart Fairchild just hanging around, you can't really take this lineup that seriously. The Pirates at least have multiple people right now who are hot and bringing the team with them. The Reds have far less of that, which is why they're in fourth.

The next two teams the Reds have to play are the Cardinals and Yankees. This won't be easy, especially with this level of momentum.

Coming Tonight: A guy who probably thought he'd spend a few years in the minors after being drafted who's now very much driving the team in the bigs.