Wild, But Not Unheard Of

 

Were the season to end today, the wild card spots would go to the Braves, Padres and Diamondbacks. Which are three respectable choices, forgetting for a moment that this means that the Mets, Cardinals, Pirates, Giants, Reds and Cubs would be left out. In a year with nine potential wild card choices, all within a few games of each other, with the divisions locked up for the moment, this is the kind of heartbreak we're talking about here. At least six great underdog stories are gonna get lopped off in October. It's not like 2020 where somebody can make the playoffs under .500 [still mad about that]. The wild card teams are going to have to earn it.

And right now, the Reds are coming off a game where one of their best pitchers gave up a grand slam to Derek Hill, a Marlins player who was only on the Marlins because the Marlins put out a 'calling all cars' message to anyone with excess players who weren't fitting on the roster, and the Giants weren't using Hill anymore. A guy can literally walk off of one roster, onto another and wound the Reds. That's how well it's going. Elly de la Cruz can inch closer to 60 steals, Hunter Greene can inch up the Cy Young race, but the Reds are under .500 again, 5.5 games back from a wild card spot and just barely staying out of last. Their July success story, Rece Hinds, is back in Louisville, they've lost Graham Ashcraft for the season [again], and we're back to letting Nick Martinez start games again due to lack of other options.

I do worry that this deficit is going to be too much for the Reds to entirely conquer. Last year, they had a reassuring core, with lots of different role-players. This year many of those guys are hurt. Noelvi Marte's only just come back from a suspension and he's hitting .180. Friedl and Steer are having down years at the plate. Stuart Fairchild is basically playing everyday. This...isn't the team that got people excited last year. It's not the same.

You are seeing some good performances here though, aside from de la Cruz and Greene. Tyler Stephenson's putting together another strong campaign. He's got 14 homers and 42 RBIs in 95 games. The Reds just signed Tucker Barnhart as a backup, which must give Stephenson flashbacks to trying to break in back in 2019 and 2020, but Stephenson's earned the starting job and has nothing to worry about. Jonathan India isn't as hot as he was last month, but he's still hitting .260 and is one of the best hitters on the team. And yes, having an MVP candidate in De la Cruz doesn't hurt either.

The Reds do have a chance at heating up and breaking through. It just takes a lot of different factors changing, and a lot of static players heating up. The Cardinals are dropping, which is good for the Reds, but it takes a lot more than that, especially considering the fact that the Pirates have more momentum at the moment. Still, you never know what the next month will give a team like this, and there could be a surprise run coming soon.

Coming Tonight: A catcher who's probably surprised that he stayed where he was this month.