I think the key issue with the modern closing pitcher is because everything's engineered by depth chart order and not by actual closing prowess, there's a shortage of players who just close 30 games every year for 10 years. We're away from the standard of Troy Percival or Billy Wagner or Bruce Sutter just keeping the gig due to their own consistency. All we have from that era are Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, and both of them are decidedly inconsistent now.
Which is why Josh Hader is so fascinating. Because he is a true perennial closer, and he made a name for himself by closing games in Milwaukee like a pro. But like a lot of other closers who got the job out of convenience instead of actual worthiness, Hader is not consistent. We saw back in 2022 that when Hader happened upon a tough stretch, he was poison. The Padres remember this from his early tenure there that fall. But then in 2023 he came around and got himself a worthy deal for the foreseeable future.
...The fact that Hader's taken this long to feel like himself, despite being a perfect fit for the Houston bullpen, tells you everything you need to know about his inconsistency.
In April 2024 alone, Josh Hader had a 6.39 ERA 2 losses and 2 saves in 13 games. It was extremely upsetting to watch. And you can go 'well this was April, everyone on the Astros was bad', but Hader might have been the worst part. He'd struggled before, mostly in 2022, but this was a new level of inefficiency. The guy couldn't get a thing done that month, and even as he improved in May and June, it was hard for Astros fans to feel that optimistic about him. August 2024, however, was his best material; with a 0.68 ERA, he struck out 17 batters and got 8 saves, bringing him closer to 30. Now he was finally a great closer playing for a great team, and while that doesn't erase several of the months that came before, it at least proves that this kind of performance is still possible from Hader.
Now...he hasn't pitched in over a week. His last stats were in August. It's a mixture of the Astros not having any save situations for him and them trying to test out their other relievers, who are in need of decent innings. At this point they're just trying to make sure Hector Neris, Nick Hernandez Caleb Ferguson, Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly don't embarrass them in the postseason, which is honestly likely. This bullpen has looked way better in years past, and right now Hader is honestly the anchor, so I understand why he's been away for a week. But...it's slightly worrying. Not entirely, but slightly.
The Astros are pretty good this year, and are using a series with Arizona to distract from the fact that they just got the shit beaten out of them by the Reds. They're likely winning the division this year, and considering that Manfred politely handed them 6 September games against the Angels to make up for the tough April, they have a chance for a first round bye as well. The Astros seem to be the only team immune from the first round bye curse, solely, it seems...because it pisses me off. But if enough of their players, including Hader, stay hot, they could make another run. I really don't want them to, but the possibility is always there.
Coming Tonight: After being out for most of the year, he finally returned last week, and unsurprisingly the power numbers aren't gonna be an issue.
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