Sunday, August 13, 2023

Always Be Closing: This Year's Standard

 


Camilo Doval, up until Alexis Diaz joining him, has been the MLB-wide leader in saves. This was something I didn't see coming going into this year, but it's also something I'm not exactly disputing now that it's happened.

Doval's first season was the Giants' 2021 'Posey retires a hero or bust' season, and he was used mainly as a fiery young set-up man to supplement someone like Jake McGee. Towards the postseason, though, Doval was seeing more ninth inning opportunities, and was saving games in the NLDS. Last year he eventually won the ninth and finished the year with 27 saves, which was a nice start. Because the Giants' bullpen has been so open in regards to who gets the ninth, it wasn't really til last year that they actually had a consistent closing option, often throwing Tyler Rogers or John Brebbia or somebody like that in there just to fill the position. 

And until this year, there wasn't anything to tell you that Camilo Doval was anything different, just a middle reliever filling the position in between people who can work the ninth. Ultimately, with 33 saves already this year, I think he's found a niche.

With most guys who come out of nowhere to lead the league in saves, I have to ask what circumstantially would lead to this. The Giants are not the top team in the NL West, at least not at the moment, but they're a solid second place team with a nice shot at the playoffs. What is odd is that they did have a string of blowouts in May and June, and while a surging closer typically means there are lots of close games, the Giants are versatile enough to succeed in both forms. Two of the most offense-heavy teams in the majors, the Rangers and Braves, don't especially need closing pitchers right now. Will Smith and Raisel Iglesias both have the same number of saves, 22, for these teams. It's not as low as some of the non-competitive teams who are too busy BEING blown out to need closing pitching, but it's more akin to someone like Craig Kimbrel in LA last year. 

Then again, I've also covered closers like Shane Greene in 2019, who racked up a ton of saves in the first half because the team was so middle-of-the-road and wasn't scoring more than 5 or so runs per game. I think Doval is different from that, because now we can say that Greene's 2019 was a circumstantial season success, and he never really racked up as many saves after that because he was mainly used in middle relief. Because of last season, I can say that Doval's strengths aren't solely based off of the momentum of this season, and that he's just a solid closer that racks up a ton of saves. Now, has he been aided by the Giants' strong stretch? Absolutely. But all of the Giants' wins since the ASG break have been by 4 or less, and there've been a lot of save situations for Doval.

So it's both the circumstances calling for a great closer and Doval being a really strong closing option. I will say more substantially if Doval is for real or not in the long run, but for right now I'm convinced he's a perennial closer type, and a really sharp one at that.

The Giants, meanwhile, are still looking great, and now they have not only Wilmer Flores looking hot but both Rogers brothers providing an incredible bullpen year. They're well embedded within the NL Wild Card race, and do have something of a chance to catch up to the Dodgers, even if that will be tricky. Having the current saves leader does help their case substantially, though, as he's saved more games than Evan Phillips.

Coming Tonight: A year ago he was flipped to a contender that arguably didn't need him, and now he's a truly impressive All-Star middle infielder for them. 

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