Boyd Where Available

 

So, to recap: the Cubs rotation was their greatest setback for the majority of the season, especially without Justin Steele or Cade Horton. So the Cubs got David Peterson, Clay Holmes and Kevin Gausman, and now it's, at the very least, better. Not enough to outweigh the Brewers, but better.

So here's where they're at. Shota Imanaga, since his rough May and June stretch ended, has basically been himself. In 60 games since July began, he's 4-4 with a 4.26 ERA. Not 2024 good but good. Matt Boyd, since he got back from the IL, is 6-3 in 14 games, with a 3.48 ERA and 55 Ks, returning somewhat to the dominance he had in 2025. David Peterson, since coming over from New York, is 4-2 with a 4.41 ERA and 54 Ks, a very average fifth man but thankfully they got enough to MAKE HIM the 5 man. Clay Holmes, in 6 games in Chicago, has a 3.51 ERA with 20 Ks, and was doing a lot better before that sixth start. And Kevin Gausman, despite a 5.31 ERA, has 4 wins and 44 Ks in 7 Cubs starts. Sort of like what Gausman was doing in Toronto this year, shakier accuracy but guys still can't always hit it. It's not pretty, and it's not perfect, but for a team that is missing two surefire young options [three if you count the still hurt Edward Cabrera], it's a lot better than before. 

The Cubs are not going to win the NL Central. They know that. Odds are they've got a date with Philly for wild card week, that's perfectly acceptable. I have been to a Phils-Cubs game already this year, and if that, and literally everything else I've seen, is any preview...the Cubs are gonna outhit the Phillies, no matter what happens. If they put Sanchez, Wheeler, Luzardo, whoever up, even if the Phillies have to play the Cubs' best arms, I still think the Cubs have the advantage because they actually show up. It's not down to two or three guys, everybody pitches in. Carson Kelly's still a .260 hitter with 54 RBIs; J.T. Realmuto is not that this year. Michael Busch, even in a down year, is gonna have 75+ RBIs; Alec Bohm's year is even less pretty. Alex Bregman had a slow start, but look at him now, hitting .260 with 24 homers and 82 RBIs, a pretty standard Bregman year if I've ever seen one.

And I don't think any Phillies pitcher right now can accurately tame Pete Crow Armstrong, who's got a 9 WAR, 41 home runs, will pass 100 RBIs any day now, 36 steals [meaning 40/40 is on the table] and some of the most insane outfield catches you'll see anywhere. PCA has been building up to this season for so long, and it's every bit as good as advertised. He really is excelling at every facet of the game, and making it look so easy. I still think it's kinda unfair that he was the Cubs's only All-Star this year, as Seiya Suzuki would have deserved it as well [again, another terrific hitting year from him], but he will be getting an MVP at this rate, so it's not a huge loss.

The Cubs' hitting is paving the way for a long postseason run, but the pitching still threatens to hold them back, even if it is a lot better. They just need the right matchup, and a team with weaknesses they can exploit in a way that makes more of a difference than the Cubs' own weaknesses being exploited. It is possible, even if it will be very difficult, especially if they face the Brewers again. But with PCA playing this well, the sky's the limit.

Coming Tonight: His team was no-hitting the Mariners for a hot second until the bullpen blew it. Nevertheless, he's still fighting for the slightest chance of a playoff spot.

Barrels Away

 

As it stands right now, the Guardians are in sole possession of the last AL Wild Card spot. They face opposition from the Blue Jays, Rangers and Orioles, but are two games ahead. If the season ended today they'd be in, and they'd have to face the White Sox, which honestly tracks. All they have to do is keep the same pace, stave off the other stragglers, and capitalize on another low-key but still strong season.

Except the Guardians, just from their last few games, seem more inclined to just make this as tense and close as possible. They're 5-5 in September already, and that includes some really rough losses to the Blue Jays, Tigers and Orioles. Yesterday against the Orioles, Foster Griffin got absolutely annihilated by the O's contact game, and the team could never fully recover. The Twins, spoilery but calming down, are next, followed by the White Sox. Already this was not going to be easy, but arguably the Guardians have made things much harder on themselves.

The Foster Griffin thing, I mean...on paper he's a nice pickup, he did well enough in Washington, but the difference between being the best pitcher on a bad team and the fifth-best pitcher on a good team is STAGGERING. In 7 Cleveland starts, he's got a 5.94 ERA, a -0.4 WAR and 30 Ks. He's technically putting in nice work, but that last start was a huge hit to his strong-enough run. It hasn't helped that Joey Cantillo has only gotten better since Griffin came over, and now has a 4 ERA. Bibee's certainly struggled, he's 5-15 with a 4.22 ERA, but his WHIP is low enough, and his numbers are impressive enough, that nobody's really sounding the alarm. And the other two are excellent, but of course they are. Parker Messick may get Cy Young votes this year with his 5.3 WAR and his 2.5 ERA, and Gavin Williams currently leads the league in strikeouts with 228, meaning he somehow managed to slide past Dylan Cease for that, and hopefully will continue to.

Still, I'll give the Guardians credit for bringing in the exact correct people to bolster the offense. Jo Adell was a big swing that's paid off, with 4 homers and 24 RBIs in 33 games. Adell has immediate fans in Cleveland, as one would expect, and the power numbers and defense have helped. Nathaniel Lowe has been a very nice, steady power corner with 5 homers and 21 RBIs. I kinda wish Manzardo were doing well enough that he'd be the guy, but Lowe's always helpful. The promotion of Angel Genao has been nice because defensively he's wonderful and he's got some contact perks. And somehow Patrick Bailey has been the answer at catcher, after so many different options since Yan Gomes. Austin Hedges is a good inoffensive backup, but Bailey is capable of being the hero, and has been as such multiple times since coming over. Bailey has 7 homers and 29 RBIs in 71 games, which isn't bad at all. In a season where Kwan and Ramirez are shakier than usual, this team needed the all hands on deck lineup mentality, and Bailey, Lowe and Adell being here cements that.

I still see this team as a playoff team, and I think they have what it takes to outweigh the opposition, but those losses have stung, as they have all year. And they need to avoid silly, exhausting moments like that weighing them down, because if not, anyone else can take advantage. The Rangers looked good today, the Orioles are looking better, it's still not a done deal. The Guardians need to remember that when they bobble a win late. 

Coming Tomorrow- His 2025 season was revelatory, a needed rise to help an aspiring competitor. His 2026 season has been less consistent but he's still helping a lot.

Frequent Shoppers

 
Right now is the Rays-Braves series, a series between two teams who are in 1st place, and would both like to remain in first place. Honestly if they're jogging in place this series to ensure they both don't really change pace at all, don't be shocked.

It's nice, because both of these teams were responsible for some of the most savvy deadline deals of the year. The Rays inquired about Liam Hicks, as the Marlins had 2 other catchers, and a deal was worked out, and suddenly the Rays got to add one of the best contact hitters in the game. Hicks has been a smashing success, hitting .313 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs. Hicks is lethal against righties, he's not a bad catcher and he's easy to fit into the lineup. The Rays already have Yandy Diaz, Jonathan Aranda, Chandler Simpson and Junior Caminero in their arsenal, and Hicks has made them even stronger. I caught him homering last month, that was pretty nice. Also I love the players' weekend canada catcher's gear he had, that was really cool. The Rays have Hicks as the primary catcher and Nick Fortes as the secondary with defensive perks. That seems to be working.

Meanwhile, the Braves needed pitching help, got turned down by Jacob deGrom, and took a flyer on Tyler Mahle, who's been good but is always injury-prone. The Giants bit, and while the Mahle deal seemed odd at first, it made more sense the more games Mahle saw in Atlanta. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.24 ERA, a 1.5 WAR, 35 Ks and 2 wins. A lot of the Braves starters this year, in lieu of the young talent that was supposed to be here, have been craftsman, veterans and tricksters, and to have an actual strong, hard-throwing pitcher again is nice. It can't all be the Chris Sale show, he needed another real arm, and Mahle is that. The move was made to strengthen the rotation, and Mahle very much did, even if A.J. Smith Shawver hasn't been very good recently. 

And it's the little moves as well that have been impressive for both teams. Brent Suter's been used by the Braves in long relief and has been wonderful, with a 1.71 ERA in 21 innings. Similarly, Tyler Wells was brought on by the Rays to be a 2-inning guy, and he's been great, with a 2-0 record, a 1.69 ERA and 16 Ks in as many innings. The only real sour note has been Freddy Peralta, and even HE'S given the Rays some nice starts after his rough early period wrapped up. He's not Brewers good, but he appears to be building, and I think he's capable of some nice October starts.

Both teams are on a pretty decent trajectory at the moment. The Rays are having some trouble, and have the Yankees coming up from behind, but have Caminero sailing and the bench providing excellent support. They have to play the Astros next [after they're done making things easier for the Braves], and that should be interesting. The Braves, after splitting the Phils series, are on slightly thinner ice, and now have the Phils again once they're done with the Rays. Acuna may be riding high after those late theatrics this weekend, but Olson's struggling, Dubon's errors are adding up, and the black hole at shortstop isn't getting any fuller. Both of these teams will still make the playoffs with ample seeds, but they need to ensure that after this series, the slipping stops and the division title can be brought home. It won't be easy, but they've made enough of the rest of this season.

Coming Tonight: The Guardians have needed catching help for years. I did not think this would be the solution. 

Easy Street

Here is a list of teams the Dodgers have left to play in 2026. The Reds, the Marlins, the Giants and the Padres. That's two noncompetitive teams, one mostly noncompetitive team, and a team on the bubble that the Dodgers have no problem beating when it means something. Now, for comparison's sake, the only tough teams the Padres have to face are the Dodgers and D-Backs, while the D-Backs have the Rangers, Yankees and Padres on the docket. Curiously all three NL West teams have games against the Marlins this month.

So look, do the Dodgers have THE easiest schedule of the competitors? No. But it's up there. The object is to get to the finish line without getting embarrassed by any of these teams, and getting a decent enough seed [the 1 is still in play, despite the Brewers working like hell to prevent this]. There is just one issue, and that is the Dodgers are in danger of losing Shohei Ohtani. They just announced he won't pitch again this season. Normally they'd do this as a dramatic gambit to set up a big final act, but no, he's done, he's focusing on hitting. And he should be, because that part seems to be falling off a bit. He's down to .277, with ONLY a .902 OPS, and ONLY 30 homers. The closest thing to a human year Ohtani's had since before the breakout in Anaheim, 2021-ish. He's missed a lot of games in the past week, and he's 2 for his last 18 at-bats with no extra base hits. Something's wrong, and the team can only stay so afloat without him.

Stranger still, the saga of Kyle Tucker's overblown market continues, as the outfielder might not even be an outfield starter in the playoffs. They might honestly need him, especially if Pages is gonna miss some games, but the way he's hitting is not at all what they signed him for. He's played in virtually every game but is hitting .221 with 12 homers, 59 RBIs and a .671 OPS. His WAR is at -0.1. Genuinely, Tucker has not been this pitiful since his 'struggling for playing time' days in the late 2010s in Houston. pretty much every season since he's gone from 4 to 6 WAR, and this season is a very odd outlier, a heartbreaking one. I don't know if it's him or it's LA or what's going on, but I do recall a sharp drop-off in the second half of last season, and it may have just continued. Still, that dead weight in addition to the lack of Ohtani help has been a huge hit to this team.

And yet...they keep winning. By the strength of their schedule, and the weakness of their opponents, they just keep winning. 

It's funny, last year around this time we were all going 'well Blake Snell's a waste of money if he's not gonna be healthy', and that's not really the case at all, because when he is healthy he's still excellent. So far in 6 starts this season, Snell's 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 43 Ks. Vintage Snell, for sure. Glasnow's been pretty decent too since coming back, he's 4-0 with a 3 ERA in 10 starts. Emmet Sheehan just had a really nice start this past week once it became do or die time with all the rotation vacancies. Skull's looking like himself, with a 3 ERA, 48 Ks and a 1.116 WHIP in 7 starts. And then Yamamoto you never really have to worry about, he's simply one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and he makes it look so easy. This is his third season and every one of them has been a gem. 

I still think the lineup schematic could be tricky if Ohtani isn't 100%, and some of the usual players [Hernandez, Muncy, Smith] are slowing down, but this Dodgers team is so well built that even this might only be a scratch. Obviously it's more interesting if someone else gets to win this time around, but will the Dodgers even let them? Is that even a possibility?

Coming Tomorrow- A Canadian legend already, and one of the best contact hitters in baseball at the moment. 

Short Supply

 

My constant disgust towards the Astros means nothing. The more spiteful I get, the more they figure out how to win games. They're two games over .500, flinging around the Phils' pitching this week, waiting for the Rangers or somebody to catch up when it probably isn't gonna happen. Unless somebody stops them, they're winning the AL West in a year where barely anyone in it's getting a passing grade. I don't know if that's something to be proud of, but for the Astros a win's a win. In another universe Alvarez still gets a triple crown on a losing team, but I guess it's all that much sweeter that they're winning. 

Jose Altuve...he's just as infuriating to talk about as the rest of the Astros. The last two seasons, he has not done a damned thing in relation to the team's success. You could argue that since 2023 he's been replacement level, as he turned into more of a power guy than a pure contact guy, his defense sank and now he's kind of just an inessential veteran. He has 15 homers and 44 RBIs, but he hit 77 RBIs last year, so we know he can do better. He's 36, slowly reaching the end of what will probably be a Hall of Fame career [and let me be clear, I wouldn't vote for him because I don't reward cheaters], and doesn't have a ton left to contribute. This is the point where guys like Alvarez, Pena, Walker and Smith can carry the load, but he's still gonna persist, because he's Jose Altuve, and he's gonna be an Astro as long as he can manage it. His next hit, which has probably happened by the time of posting, will be number 2500, and 3000 is technically within reach because of the strength of those first several seasons. Obviously he's a great player, I'll just never respect him. 

He's such a minuscule part of this team that there isn't much to be dragged down. The rotation's figured things out, Brown, Lambert, Wesneski and Javier seem to be on a nice pace right now. Ethan Pecko's getting the 5 spot, and he's not terrific but he's getting the job done. Josh Hader's been phenomenal in the ninth, and seems to be back to where he was before the injury [again, written before Phils game was over]. Smith is hitting, Paredes and Pena are hitting, Daulton Varsho went yard against the Phils [the team that was supposed to trade for him], Yainer Diaz is finding his swing, and Alvarez, while being eclipsed for the home run lead by Junior Caminero, is still looking for history, and is very close to attaining it. I say let him, he's a fearsome hitter with so much ability, and it's been years since the last triple crown. If it was Altuve I'd be mad, but Alvarez is so good you can't even be that disappointed. 

The Astros have two real tasks going forward. One is winning the division, which should be easy enough if the Rangers keep forgetting they can still take it. The other is actually standing a chance against wild card competitors with better records. The idea is they'd likely play the sixth seed, which would be any combination of the Jays, Guardians, O's, Rangers, whoever's left standing there. The old Astros would be a menace no matter the seed. I don't know about this Astros team yet. They had a lead against the Phils, it got thinner as the game went on. They still won but it got dangerously close. Remember when these guys could no-hit Philadelphia? I don't know if this team can do that anymore. I think they're lucky, and streaky, but I don't know if they have it to go deep this year.

Then again these jerks have proven me wrong before. So who knows?

Coming Tonight: 2 Cy Youngs, a lot of money, and miraculously some classic stuff looking for that second ring. 

The Edge of Their Seeds

 

The Brewers currently have the best record in the NL, and in baseball, and could very well have a higher seed than the Dodgers once the playoffs begin. However, the Dodgers have one of the easiest schedules in baseball this month, and barely have to play any teams over .500, while the Brewers still have to play the Cubs and Phillies, as well as spoilery teams like the Orioles and Cardinals. Therefore...clearly the Dodgers are the preferred frontrunners. That being said, the Dodgers don't have Shohei Ohtani at 100% right now, and the Brewers seem to only be getting stronger with time.

I think it's a little worrying that the wins are trailing off slightly. They were able to keep leverage against the Cubs to start out, and look to keep doing that [especially with the pitching], but they're in a more precarious position than they were. Kyle Harrison's fatigued now, clearly. He keeps getting lit up in starts, and we can't even blame Vegas anymore. The deadline acquisitions [Dustin May, Antonio Senzatela and Jojo Romero] have not been up to snuff. Even Miz got rocked a little in the past week. Grant Anderson just hit the IL, Sal Frelick and Christian Yelich are fairly mediocre, and now the league lead is around a game. And the Dodgers have to play the the Reds right now.

I still think the Brewers have the edge though. Everything the Dodgers claim they are, an unparalleled barrel of talent, the Brewers actually are. Bringing up Cooper Pratt and Luis Lara, and having both of them fit perfectly while also inspiring Joey Ortiz and Sal Frelick to start playing better, is incredible. Pratt is one of many sure thing prospects, and despite missing time he's hitting .275 with 3 homers and 29 RBIs, plus 13 steals, in 59 games. It's a bright start for the 21-year-old, who's probably gonna have shortstop going forward. Luis Lara, meanwhile, is unparalleled defensively and has a nice mean streak offensively, with 21 RBIs in 49 games. He was smoking the minors, maybe he'll start ramping up a little more. I don't know what that means for Mitchell or Frelick, but the depth is certainly a good thing. Also really good to have two excellent options at first. Bauers is still a top-tier hitter statistically, and Vaughn's a .300 hitter with less power perks and more pure contact ability. And they've got Gary Sanchez against lefties and David Hamilton as a utility man, not even going into Turang and Chourio on top of their game. There is so much going on in this lineup that even a Dodgers team might not be able to stop all of it this year.

I think the postseason rotation situation could be a little worrying if Harrison's acting up. Might be as simple as Miz-Henderson-Drohan, but you might need a larger sample size from Drohan in order to be alright with him there. If not, you just hope Harrison rebounds I guess? Or else it's Bobby Gasser, which could be brilliant or could be a recipe for disaster, you're never sure. At least the bullpen's pretty trustworthy, that's a start. 

I dunno, I still like the Brewers' odds. I don't know if the top seed is guaranteed anymore, but I think they could find their 2025 postseason momentum and make another strong run. They're still very much in the thick of their prime competitive run, and they're only gonna get better once Made and Williams are up, so if they go all the way now, they may not stop there. For a team that's never won, that's a very cool prospect.

Coming Tomorrow- One of my least favorite players in the game. Cause he's that good, and cause he's that bad.

Wish Granted

 

I want to make it clear that, as there's still 19 games left, it's still not definite that the White Sox are going to win the AL Central. The Guardians are still actively chasing them, and are a very good team, and could sweep in late and grab the division. Considering the competition in the AL Wild Card race, if they don't win the division, it's curtains. So the White Sox, who are facing a lot of okay but still spoilery teams in the next week or so [Pirates, Cardinals, Tigers] in addition to the Guards themselves, need to keep on a roll in order for this to happen.

But. If it does happen...wouldn't that be awesome? 

I kind of want this for the White Sox. They put together a team in the late 2010s/early 2020s that was a competitor, and it did absolutely nothing so they gutted everything, were the butt of the league for two years, and now they're in position to win the division and make the playoffs as a three seed, meaning they could get further than the Renteria/LaRussa teams did. I really want that to happen. Let LaRussa sit in shame as the team he messed up ascends to glory. 

And obviously, the White Sox haven't made it easy for themselves. They have Luis Castillo every 5 games, and he's really not the guy he once was with Cincinnati and Seattle. They lost Davis Martin and hopefully have a better version of him back. They were without Munetaka Murakami's home runs for a while [thankfully he just hit his 30th]. They still don't have a viable answer at catcher despite Edgar Quero doing everything he can to move the needle. And most of their savvy pickups, like Huascar Brazoban, Brenton Doyle and Luisangel Acuna, really haven't done much. Yet here they are, still competing and still looking great.

Miguel Vargas, Colson Montgomery, Tristan Peters, Chase Meidroth and Murakami have made this a surprisingly incredible offensive bunch, with 3 guys with over 70 RBIs and 3 guys with 30 homers. Vargas quieted skeptics [mostly me] by becoming a really impressive everyday option at the plate. Montgomery is still a home run machine with great versatility. Andrew Benintendi can still hit for power even if the range is gone. Tristan Peters is doing better as a former Savannah Banana in the MLB than most former XFL players have done in the NFL. The hitting is pretty incredible, and could be a difference maker given some playoff schematics.

But the team's just run more efficiently than most White Sox teams that have gotten close. I'm really impressed by this bullpen, lined with working, young options that have kept moving. Grant Taylor, at 24, is the primary closing option, and he's got a 2.16 ERA with 97 Ks and 8 steals. Sean Newcomb has been terrific as the overall relief specialist, with a 2.42 ERA in 82 innings. Bryan Hudson's had a terrific comeback year after spinning out in Milwaukee. Trevor Richards has turned into a halfway decent swingman. And now Hagen Smith has been added to the equation as a high-leverage reliever, and he's only given up 1 earned run in 16 innings. I have no idea if the idea is stretching Smith out to start next year, but he's very good in this role, and if it keeps him on a postseason roster, so be it. Additionally, Martin-Burke-Kay is a pretty strong postseason rotation, even if it's not THE strongest in the AL. Worst comes to worse, Castillo does long relief. 

I'm really liking how this White Sox team is shaping up, and I really think they could make something happen this year, after so many miserable years. This is what the rebuild was for, an efficient version of the White Sox, and I hope it leads to something great.

Coming Tonight: A huge rookie for the Brewers. You know, to harken the eventual appearance of like 4 more huge Brewers rookies. 

Ending With Dignity, Mets Style

 

I think, just generally, the Mets look a little closer to a good team than they did during the heat of this season. Now, granted, that doesn't mean they're an actual good team, but...it means it's no longer embarrassing. 

It's funny, I was in New York on Saturday midday, and I was headed to the shuttle between times square and grand central, as one does, and I did see some Mets fans heading back from the 7. It was bobblehead day. That's always cool. I was at Pete Alonso bobblehead day in Baltimore earlier this year, that was 100% the place to be. I just looked up who the bobblehead at Citifield was of on Saturday. It was a special U.S. Open themed Mrs. Met bobblehead.

So let's recap. Prior to the season, the Mets bring on Freddy Peralta, Luis Robert, Devin Williams, Luke Weaver, Jorge Polanco, Marcus Semien, Bo Bichette and rookie Carson Benge, and by September, all they can muster is a bobblehead of their mascot to commemorate a sporting event that happens next door every year anyway? Or maybe it was one of Peralta, Robert or Weaver, and the pre-made bobbleheads are already being melted down and made into next year's bound-for-the-resale-market Luis Torrens bobblehead giveaway. I was in a Greenwich, CT thrift store earlier this year, which is a lot like a McDonalds in a sports stadium I reckon, and they had a Mark Vientos Mets bobblehead, from weeks earlier, there for 15 dollars. And even if Swaggy V would rebound in May...15 was still asking way too much for Vientos. 15 would honestly be asking too much for a Bo one too.

Anyhow, the Mets are beginning to turn things around by installing the next phases of the rebuild, which is working a lot better than all those contracts did. Jonah Tong was on the mound today, and seemed to silence the Marlins pretty well. He might be a little more ready than he was on prior MLB call-ups. If he's good for the long haul, then he, Nolan McLean, Christian Scott and Zac Thornton might be sneakily becoming a nightmare waiting to happen. Thornton is putting up perfectly fine numbers as a four man, a 3.53 ERA, a 1.191 WHIP and a 1.5 WAR, but that's how guys like Wheeler and Matz started as well. McLean has looked a ton better in weeks' past, and is looking to end the season with his ERA around 3. Christian Scott is looking insanely durable since TJ surgery, and has a full season of strong work under his belt. Sean Manaea has one more year left on the deal, and hopefully his 2027 is way better than his last two seasons. But that young core could be the next step to legitimacy, and certainly has been lately. Also, Nate Lavender's been incredible as a bullpen piece, and arguably so was Jefry Yan. 

The idea for 2027 will be finding what from this shipwreck of a team is salvageable going forward. Obviously the outfield's staying as it is- Soto-Ewing-Benge is a working model that's been very successful this year, and will be going forward. Obviously shortstop is non-negotiable, and the catching platoon I assume isn't going anywhere either. Semien is signed for another 2 years, so either they trade that or they eat it and DH him. Bichette's gonna get low-balled in free agency, and I'm not sure if New York's the answer for him right now. Polanco is expected to stick around but I guess he'll be a DH/part time guy. And then Jared Young worked this year but he's 31 and very much a replacement-level option so I don't think he's the long-term solution for the Pete Alonso problem. This is where a successful Ronny Mauricio would have helped, but alas. Vientos and Baty SHOULD be holding up the corners but they keep refusing to!

I think the Mets should ride out the mess for one more year, let a few guys leave in free agency, let this core sail and allow for successors at 1st, 2nd and 3rd to materialize, and hope it gets them somewhere higher than fifth. A lot works about this team, there was just this inescapable sag this year, and hopefully in 2027 they'll outrun it.

Coming Tomorrow- A relief specialist who probably didn't expect to be staring down an October berth this year. 

The Jays Roar Back

 

It happened in an instant. The Orioles lost 6 straight, the Blue Jays won 4 straight [and then failed to hit Randy Dobnak] and suddenly the Jays have slipped into the spot the O's were supposed to have. How about that? Whole season of not really being too impressive and now they're going for it. How very Toronto Blue Jays of them.

I questioned, at the time, why the Jays would buy AND sell, knowing the small probability of making a run, but they clearly knew what they were doing. Josh Smith became a relatively wise depth infielder choice, he's got an .890 OPS through 17 games. Jose Soriano's been excellent in 6 Toronto starts, with 2 wins, 24 Ks and a 4 ERA. Paul Sewald has been a surprise hit in Toronto, without letting any runs go by in 7 innings. Ricky Tiedemann is being used in relief and has been pretty effective so far. The only real weak spot has been Spencer Arrighetti, who got walloped by Kansas City yesterday, but at least they got him away from the Astros. 

Trading Daulton Varsho was the odd part, because that's some centerfield stability with great power perks. This just hasn't been his season, as the Astros are currently finding out. But in exchange for Kevin Gausman, the Jays got Brett Bateman, a 24-year-old Iowa Cub who'd been waiting to make a debut but couldn't break into the stuffed Cubs OF picture [much like Owen Caissie last year]. So the Jays traded for him and slotted him into center in front of Myles Straw, and...almost immediately a star was born. In 24 games, Bateman has hit .327 with some amazing contact work, despite only 7 RBIs and 5 extra base hits. Bateman's a really strong hitter with a lot of versatility, and the team seems to know what they have. Of course, since Bateman's come on board, the Jays have reentered the playoff picture and are now chasing that third wild card spot.

A few things that I should probably mention that could still make competition difficult for the Jays. First of all, a rookie tearing things up in August has happened before. Davis Schneider did this, Will Wagner did this. Both died down eventually. I'm not saying Bateman's destined to fail, I'm just saying the fans should temper their expectations. The other thing is that beyond Dylan Cease, who looks to pry a Cy Young award from Cam Schlittler's young hands later this year, the Blue Jays' starting pitching is...scattered. Yesavage and Bieber are hurt. Jameson Taillon was doing okay, then he got hurt. The plan is Cease, Max Scherzer and his slowly-gaining momentum, Soriano, Arrighetti, opener game succeeded by Michael Lorenzen. That's...not sustainable. The hope is Yesavage is back for the playoffs but if they're gonna make a run, they need an actual arsenal back there, and they don't have it yet. Soriano is good but he was better in May. Scherzer as a postseason starter could go either way at this point. This could succeed, especially if Guerrero is going to start hitting, but it could also fail miserably. You're thinking that seed would play the winner of the AL Central, and those aren't easy wins no matter which of the two you get. You're pitching to either Munetaka Murakami or to Jose Ramirez. Good luck either way.

The Jays could still happen this year, somehow, and they could shock the world, but I don't see the practicality of it from a roster depth standpoint. They got to a World Series last year on extreme depth, and they don't have that right now. So they're gonna need to build some very soon.

Coming Tonight: The Mets just announced Jonah Tong's coming back to start, and it's odd to me that he's been displaced in the depth chart by another rookie pitcher who wasn't even around last fall. 

Room at the Bottom

 

The Rockies recently became the first team officially eliminated from the playoffs, and they did so with a marginally better record than the Angels, who haven't been eliminated yet but will be in the next 24 hours. Both teams have an outside chance of reaching 100 losses, but it's not guaranteed yet. 

I mean, first of all, let's step back for a moment and think about the fact that there's probably more of a chance of the Brewers reaching 100 wins than the Angels reaching 100 losses. Both may happen but it's nice that there won't be discourse about there being more 100 loss teams than 100 win teams [or any at all]. 

The Angels are probably more likely to reach the mark first because they're up to their ears in replacement-level guys. The number of guys that only hit well against the Yankees has grown to two, as Vaughn Grissom has joined Christian Moore as an in-house Yankee killer without doing much else against the other 28 teams. Grissom is hitting .249 with 10 homers and 59 RBIs as a baseline infield fill-in guy, far from where he thought he'd be about four years ago. Inches from succeeding Dansby Swanson in Atlanta, he was passed over for Orlando Arcia, traded for Chris Sale and never achieved any sense of MLB stability...until this year, where he's an everyday guy for a last place Angels team. The Angels tried a lot of gambits for roster roles this year [Nick Madrigal, Jeimer Candelario, Trey Mancini, Alek Manoah, Michael Fulmer] but Grissom might be the most successful. I don't think this means he'll have a true rebound, but if the Angels continue at this very worrying pace, he could be a good placeholder piece. 

Then again I am seeing a lot of those the more I look around this Angels team. I do think Denzer Guzman is a placeholder guy, as he's not hitting much at all despite having third base, but...he's also 22. Same with Moises Ballesteros, who's shown none of his Cubs-era finesse and is limping along, hitting .179 with barely any offensive production. Christian Moore isn't doing much else, he's hitting .162 in 19 games. The idea is for these guys to inherit the team. Y'know, like Caden Dana was supposed to. Eventually something is going to work, but I still think that timeline is a-ways off. They'll go ahead with Schanuel, Meckler, Urena, Joyce and, I'm guessing, Mike Trout, but I don't think they'll actually be intimidating again while Trout is still here.

The Rockies, meanwhile, do have some solid bats to work with, which is why the 100 loss mark isn't a guarantee just yet. Hunter Goodman, Cole Carrigg, Jake McCarthy, T.J. Rumfield, Zac Even, Troy Johnston and somehow Connor Norby and Adael Amador have continued the relatively decent upward momentum of the Rockies lineup. Goodman's at 36 homers, and he could hit 40. Carrigg's very much at home in the majors, and has an .808 OPS. Johnston is the ideal slap contact guy, even with only 48 RBIs; he's on-point, relatively consistent, and does what he's supposed to. Same with Norby almost. Filling the bench with contact guys is a very nice way to get further towards competition, and assuming Johnston and Norby stick around, they could pad the roster while Carrigg, Karros, Rumfield, Goodman and Even get the everyday glory. It's also very refreshing that Adael Amador has finally learned to hit at the MLB level. He'd be very useful as an everyday second baseman, and moreso now that Willi Castro's gotten hurt.

Pitching is obviously going to be an issue going forward. Ryan Feltner, Gabriel Hughes, Mason Adams and Chase Dollander will be the main starting options, as I'm assuming Sugano will find a better environment for his craftsmanship and the Freeland contract will finally be over. To be honest...you could do worse with a homegrown base. Hughes has a 6.19 ERA, but surprisingly he's got a 3.81 ERA at Coors. Half his starts have been home starts, and they're not bad at all. You get a Feltner or a Lorenzen who's equally bad both home and away, but having young, impressive guys like Hughes, Adams and Dollander who could potentially carry the rotation is...a start. They just need to come into their own without pressure, which I think next year could be good for. I'd recommend grabbing one cheap free agent to pad things [Chris Bassitt? Miles Mikolas? Jordan Montgomery?], but letting those kids go could be a nice start.

I don't think either team will compete as soon as next year, but the Rockies might do so sooner than the Angels. Not White Sox rebuild levels of turnaround but...the seeds have been planted, and you never know when that team will take off.

Coming Tomorrow- A rookie who was traded at the deadline, made his debut and might be making the playoffs anyway.

Was This Trip Really Necessary?

 

Remember a couple years ago, the Reds were lifting up, the Royals were lifting up, and they decided to trade Jonathan India for Brady Singer, and it made sense at the time because it honestly helped both clubs equally, and then India got hurt and became a .199 hitter with no defense, Singer became a routine fifth starter and now both teams are in last?

This is why...you vet your trades. Do you NEED pitching help? Do you NEED infield depth? Do you WANT to risk trading Brady Singer to a team that already has like 8 starters bobbing around waiting for the other 7 to get hurt? 

I'm not saying this is the only reason both the Reds and the Royals have struggled, I mean injuries are more the point. But I go back to that deal and while the Reds did make the playoffs last year, they don't look like they're on the way up, and neither do the Royals. Both teams might need to rebuild, which is an odd thing to say when one of them has Bobby Witt Jr. on it. 

I think the Royals were just unlucky this year, not only that a lot of key pieces got hurt, but that even healthy they probably wouldn't have been able to catch the Guardians or White Sox. Most of the goodwill this team has was made up in the last few months, thanks to Nick Loftin, Tyler Tolbert, Carter Jensen, Noah Cameron and Michael Massey getting more starting time. Maikel Garcia, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kyle Isbel and Bobby Witt missed large swaths of the season, and the team suffered. Pasquantino in particular has been such a factor in whenever this team succeeds or fails. The 2024 team needed his bat coming off the IL, but even then he's a relatively average power hitter. He's got 9 homers and 42 RBIs in 94 games, which is kind of underwhelming. Last year he had a 30-homer/100-RBI year and even that felt like something of a letdown honestly. I'm not sure if the Royals have a 30 homer guy this year, and I say that knowing Carter Jensen and Jac Caglianone are at 23.

I'm very happy with Noah Cameron making up for lost time though, he's got his ERA down to 4, has 9 wins, 138 Ks, and his last few starts have been incredible. If he'd been that good from the start, this Royals team would be alright, but like last year, he needed to wait a while to come into his own. The Royals have two guys who pitched complete game shutouts and neither have been that dominant the whole year. Otherwise, an average Seth Lugo season, another lost Cole Ragans year, and Randy Dobnak saving the day with craftsmanship. What a way to rake 'em in.

The Reds have much less going on, and the lineup is essentially Elly de la Cruz, Sal Stewart and a prayer at this point. Stewart already crossed 30 homers and 100 RBIs, and is a lock for Rookie of the Year at this point. Elly's having a much lighter season than usual production wise, but he's still got a 4 WAR and 24 steals, so he's doing his thing. Hector Rodriguez has burst onto the scene, he's got 5 homers and 11 RBIs, so he could be fun to watch going forward. Plus, Eugenio Suarez has started hitting again, and all it took was getting naturalized. 

With the injury merry-go-round that is this team, though, it's never gonna be especially pretty all of the time. They have landed on 6 guys who are healthy, which is nice, but Brandon Williamson's still not 100%. Lodolo and Abbott are both having down years, and Brady Singer, despite having some nice recent starts, leads the league in losses with 13. Without Chase Burns, I really don't know what to say about this group. Hunter Greene was supposed to be the start of a nice lineage of young, homegrown flamethrowers, and literally none of them have stayed healthy. So we're sort of back to where we were.

I don't expect either team to compete next year, and if anything I expect the Reds to really go all in on the rebuild effort. The Royals will be okay if not passable, though they could catch fire if the others aren't careful. And hopefully neither team makes a weird trade they regret in 2 years.

Coming Tonight [?]: A guy who was rejected by a dynasty for a fluke season, bounced around, and now starts for a team with no better options. And he just took the Yankees deep earlier this week. 

Unarmed and Dangerous

 

Here's a fun stat about the Nationals, and it has nothing to do with all those home runs they've hit. Their pitching staff has a cumulative 4.2 WAR. 3.3 of that is from Foster Griffin, who now plays for the Cleveland Guardians. So everybody else combines for like...0.9 WAR. That's how good the Nats' pitching is. Beyond Cade Cavalli...eesh. Andrew Alvarez is doing better, Jake Irvin is at least finishing starts, and Jackson Kent is on the way up, but this pen, as people have mentioned, is alarmingly bad. The one guy who was actually keeping runs down, P.J. Poulin, just got hurt, and it's not looking great otherwise.

That's really how simple this Nats team was, because they could absolutely outhit people. They missed James Wood for a bit, but he's still got a 30 homer year and he's looking to top 75 RBIs. C.J. Abrams is right behind with 23, and an MVP-vote-garnering year for sure. There's also a lot of nice 'nuts and bolts' style guys, like Jacob Young, a winning centerfielder with a nice contact edge, or Nasim Nunez and his stolen bases. Daylen Lile quietly built up an 80 RBI/20 homer season while no one was looking, with an extra 6 triples to add. 

And so now the formula's clear. The pieces for this team to compete are intact, and now Harry Ford, Abimelec Ortiz and Yohandy Morales are all along for the ride, and they can all hit. This is a sustainable, working lineup model that can last a while. But...if there's no pitching behind it, there's no point. You hope Jackson Kent can develop into something great, but Alvarez and Cavalli are 27, and who's coming after? Is D.J. Herz ever gonna come back? Is Josiah Gray? Unless the Nats do what the A's do and bring in some mid-level free agents to lead things until some decent guys come in. And remember, they tried that this year with Griffin, Zack Littell and Miles Mikolas, and it did not work at all. If they can find people that actively want to come to Washington and rally behind James Wood, C.J. Abrams and Daylen Lile for a while, they might be okay.

But if not...people might start leaving. C.J. Abrams was nearly traded this deadline, and they could try and trade him again. The Nats could suddenly decide this isn't the way and alienate people. So it's really down to this specific offseason. I think they go all in, try and pick people up, really try to coast upwards. Or just rebalance the rotation around some young, homegrown guys who are ready. I say this like it's a foreign concept, but since 2021 it kind of has been. They had a rotation schematic and it didn't work at all, which is why they couldn't do anything this year. I genuinely believe they can get close, but...they're practically starting from zero, especially with how glass armed Cade Cavalli might honestly be.

You hate to see a team this powerful waste its moment, which is why I hope the Nats turn things around soon.

Coming Tomorrow- For such a fun nickname, you'd think the guy would be able to put it together for a longer amount of time.

Got Milk?

 

Colton Cowser's been having a really nice week. Not only is he now among the top 5 WAR leaders on the Orioles, and not only are the Orioles closer to the pack in the wild card race than they ever have been this year...but, I'm not sure if you saw...he had this rather nice catch. Leaping catch at the wall at Coors. Saved the game in the bottom of the ninth. Even Andrew Kittredge couldn't believe it. 99% of other cases, that's not a catch, that blows the game, Rox win. Cowser made a very rare leaping catch that kept the Orioles' hopes alive. Now, granted, they lost the other two games. And now they have to play the Red Sox. But the eyes are finally on the O's, as they should be.

I got to see these guys in Baltimore a couple weeks ago. To be honest, the offense wasn't really the takeaway. As I was leaving, Samuel Basallo hit a moonshot to tie it and after I left, Dylan Beavers walked it off with some great contact work off of Bryan Baker, but while I was there these guys sort of chugged along. There were some great defensive plays, some good contact work, and enough of an effort against Shane McClanahan, but I wasn't wowed. After that, the fun really began, and they're now 69-71, a couple games back from the AL West contingency and with a decent enough shot at a surprise playoff experience. They just need to keep moving.

At this present moment, I think they've got enough to stay on this pace. The rotation is very solid, and consists of five guys that are trustworthy, can go deep into games and are taking care of themselves. Chris Bassitt's been improving since he got back. Brandon Young's having an excellent year, he's 9-3. Shane Baz and Kyle Bradish, despite 4 ERAs, are very dominant choices and are doing a lot of strong work. Trevor Rogers had a season high 11 Ks yesterday, bringing his total to 132. In addition, this team has Rico Garcia and Yennier Cano doing great setup work, Andrew Kittredge in the ninth, Alex Hoppe being lights-out as a return for Taylor Ward, and the very intriguing Luis De Leon. Pitching wise they haven't had this much security in a while, which is rare in a year without Felix Bautista.

As for the lineup, well...this team has three very cool choices at third base. The everyday guy is Christian Encarnacion Strand, and he's got 28 RBIs in 37 games. The fans already love him. The lefty platoon guy is Coby Mayo, and he has 19 homers and 55 RBIs, even if it isn't always pretty. And the recently-returning Blaze Alexander, now playing outfield more I think, is still an excellent contact bat, hitting .300 with 4 homers and 29 RBIs. This team has turned into a cavalcade of really cool options, ranging from Dylan Beavers and his clutch ability, Jackson Holliday and his slowly-forming all-purpose assets, Samuel Basallo and his walk-offs, Gunnar Henderson and his literally everything, and the already-beloved Pete Alonso. Alonso has 32 homers, 91 RBIs, and already is an Orioles hero. Plus, I hear this outfielder guy just showed up, this Luis Robert Jr. character. He's sure to be an added explosive element if this team can squeak into a playoff spot.

I don't know if this can happen. It takes both the Orioles withstanding the competition and being able to lap both AL West teams ahead of them, and right now I'm not sure how possible that is. But if it does happen, it'd be the coolest damn thing. I'd be all for it. They just need to keep this pace, and avoid losses like yesterday's. This Sox series will be a pretty important turning point for them. 

Coming Tonight: Another fun centerfielder from nearby actually.

Pacific Grim

 

The Giants and A's don't play too close to each other anymore, but they still feel like kindred spirits. They both went through colossal rebuilds, they both have a well-liked former player in a management position, they both have a god-tier home run hitter in their midst, and they both absolutely shat the bed this year. 

It's funny, I'm writing this on a night where both teams honestly have a lot to be happy about. The A's absolutely bodied the Rangers earlier today, and got homers from Jonah Heim, Alika Williams and, twice, Henry Bolte. Bolte is not exactly known for his power, he's a pretty fun defense-heavy outfield guy, he hits for contact, does his thing. He's a very handy guy to have around, and this game proved it. Meanwhile, the Giants' offense has been going wild recently thanks to the Pirates' pitching, with a Rafael Devers homer continuing the job from the 12-run loss [!!!]. Devers now has 32, and continues to be a very reliable power hitter with some obvious faults.

It's nice that these offenses have picked up, because otherwise there really isn't much left for either team to do.

We've reached the point in the Giants' season where Logan Webb is looking pretty cooked. Fundamentally he's still an excellent pitcher, and this isn't a concerning downturn, but after such a strong return from May on, resulting in an ASG nod, his ERA's back at 4.20, he's 8-8 and has been on the losing side his last three starts. The Pirates got 9 runs out of him yesterday, which is very concerning if you just blind yourself to how many Paul Skenes has been giving up. Without his better numbers, it's really down to Landen Roupp as a proper starting option, and...for many reasons that's just not a ship that fans wanna sail down. The Giants have thankfully been using a ton of rookies in starts recently, and both Anthony Molina and Yunior Marte look like really solid options. I also think Cesar Perdomo could start at some point, he's not too shabby either. Blade Tidwell getting starts I'm not very convinced about. You leave a guy named Blade for the eighth, don't trot him out in the 1st. No wonder the division rivals have killed him recently. 

Not a ton going on in the lineup either with a lot of people hurt. Devers is basically the draw right now. Bryce Eldridge had a decent month but is pedestrian again. Drew Gilbert is warming up now, he's got 8 homers and 36 RBIs this year, and even though he'll be 26 next year he's still looking like a future option. Begs the question, do the Mets *know* these downturns are coming when they trade these guys away? We thought they were fools for trading Kelenic, they weren't, and now 'OH WHY TRADE DREW GILBERT', well because he's hitting .236. Brandon Sproat's ERA was around 5 this year as well. What I'm saying is, Jett Williams, you are on notice.

There are some other amusing contributors, like surprise everyday catcher Drew Cavanaugh, wunderkind centerfield prospect Jonah Cox, depth outfielder Turner Hill who's hitting .350 pretty much, and erstwhile minor leaguer Oselvis Basabe trying to stay afloat given the roster vacancies, but there's really not much this team can do without so many viable pieces. 

Similarly, the A's are without Nick Kurtz, Tyler Soderstrom, Jacob Wilson, Shea Langeliers and Brent Rooker, and we're very much as the 'there's no point' stage of hitting. Who is left in this lineup that can hit. Zack Gelof I suppose. Jonah Heim, cheesily. Lawrence Butler, when he feels like it. Henry Bolte in lieu of all else. But there's just a lot of empty space, and a lot of dull non-hitting. When you have all that positive offensive energy sitting on the IL, it's even more obvious. Denzel Clarke just came off the IL, and that's wonderful, but...again, Denzel Clarke is not exactly known for his offense. The A's basically feel like a minor league team at this point. I know they can't help it cause so many people got hurt, but it's just very depressing, especially considering how they were about to turn the corner in May and June.

I think the good news is that going forward, this team can rely on J.T. Ginn, Jacob Lopez and Gage Jump as a pitching backbone. I'm still waiting for more actual homegrown starters to lock into place, but maybe this is a step towards that happening.

Anyway, the Giants and A's are doing what they can to keep things interesting but they know it's kind of meaningless at this point, and at least a lot of guys who wouldn't otherwise be up in the majors are getting some nice reps in.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy that leapt and made the news. 

Everybody Knows This is Nowhere

 

Alright, so...the NL playoff picture is pretty settled. The division leaders are pretty set, there's four main contenders for the wild card spot, the Marlins could have made a run but now they're 4 games back and need one of the others to stop moving, which will be difficult. Everybody else is out of it. And that includes the Pirates...despite the fact that they're starting to get going again finally.

The Pirates overcame several really unfortunate developments this season. The complete meltdown of the bullpen, including Dennis Santana, which is cumulatively responsible for 25 losses. The decline of Mitch Keller, which is responsible for 8 losses, and the subsequent decline of Paul Skenes, which is responsible for 11 losses. The infuriating lack of catching stability despite TWO FORMER TOP PROSPECTS sharing the workload this year. And the injuries to Ryan O'Hearn, Konnor Griffin and Oneil Cruz right when they were getting going. This team more than any other Pirates team was simply cursed, because there was more effort put into this team than most other Pirates teams, and even with that they still couldn't move the needle.

Of course, NOW, once the season's basically been called, the Pirates actually start coming together again. Oneil Cruz, Spencer Horwitz and Jared Triolo have all been hitting since coming back. Cruz has 17 homers and 52 RBIs despite missing two months. Bubba Chandler's also finally putting something together, getting his ERA down to 4.26 and getting to 117 strikeouts. Rafael Flores is another nice young outfield bat, he's already got 7 homers and 17 RBIs. And Jake Mangum has been the glue of this team, hitting .287 with 21 steals, 107 hits and some great outfield play. Mangum was similarly underrated in Tampa, and now he's arguably getting a bit more playing time. The core of this team is still Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz, Brandon Lowe, Esmerlyn Valdez and Nick Gonzales, and that's still extremely good. All of those guys are having excellent seasons and if the pitching hadn't spoiled some things early, they'd be pushing this team into the conversation.

Also, and this is very important: the bullpen's really good now. Gregory Soto, Mason Montgomery, Evan Sisk and Yohan Ramirez all turned their seasons around and are responsible for a combined 6.2 WAR. Since then Lake Bachar, Camilo Doval, Kirby Yates and Luke Weaver have jumped into the mix, and they're all very good. Yates in particular has been pretty lights out, with 2 wins and a 2.19 ERA. It's a very good sign, especially if Skenes is still pretty cooked.

Last night, the Pirates went ballistic on the Giants, and can still win some games even if the playoffs are a long shot at this point. The hope is that most of these guys stick around so they can build a working version of this team that doesn't crap out where this one did, but that would require a much better Paul Skenes, and we need to see if this season is due to fatigue or if the lower velocity is just gonna be a thing now.

Coming Tonight: A rookie outfielder for the A's who's probably grateful he's not in triple-A right now, but...the A's kinda feel like a triple-A team at the moment, so it's a mixed blessing.

Just Before Gleyber Day

 

There was a brief moment where it looked like the Tigers were about to come roaring back with a vengeance and stare down the rest of the AL Central, but right as they were about to reach .500, they went 4-14 to finish out August. And now they're so far out of the playoff race that Justin Verlander's swan song might just be an inning in September rather than an October sendoff. It got sad FAST in Detroit, and I think it was difficult for this team to do anything once Riley Greene got hurt. But he's back now...in time for the anticlimax I guess.

What I'm getting from this team is that all the people that are coming up now, like Max Clark, Ben Malgeri, Brett Callahan and John Peck, are put here to do the work that the actual depth guys [Matt Vierling, Kerry Carpenter, Wenceel Perez, Javier Baez, Parker Meadows, Jace Jung] REFUSED TO DO. In past years, the Tigers have had so many little guys who could jump in and shock you, or come in for a pinch hit and flip the game. None of them could do a damn thing this year, so the Tigers just brought up the next stage. Eduardo Valencia is now the backup catcher, he's a .312 hitter with a .636 SLG, 6 homers and 17 RBIs in 27 games, and even if Dillon Dingler is the guy right now, he's a very handy #2. Clark has more triples than homers right now but the future's still very bright. Malgeri's just a solid extra piece, he's an above average hitter with some real contact spark. Callahan might be something useful too. The hope is that when they make another run next year, and I think they well, just with Jackson Jobe and Troy Melton stepping up in the absence of Mize and Skubal, this bench depth and hitting armada will do everything this year's's could not. 

The other thing that sort of screwed the Tigers over this year was losing Gleyber Torres for a couple months. Torres never became the superstar that the Yankees thought he'd be, but he's still an incredibly useful infield bat with tons of perks. Last year he was an all-star, and deservingly so at that. This year he's only played 79 games, but at least he's hit .261 with 8 homers and 36 RBIs, and has been relatively productive since coming back. The word's out on whether or not Torres will be resigned for next year, though Javier Baez and John Peck seem to indicate that some infield flexibility could be instituted if he signs elsewhere [which...there's a decent chance that he will]. The team is trying to go younger all over, Torres is pushing thirty, it all fits. Meanwhile, Colt Keith, Kevin McGonigle, Max Clark, Brett Callahan and Hao-Yu Lee are all under the 25-year mark and can certainly make up the core for rest of the 2020s. 

At the very least, this team has a definite Rookie of the Year candidate in Kevin McGonigle, a possible MVP candidate in Dillon Dingler, 7 more saves to get Kenley Jansen to 500, and the potential for that storybook ending for JV. It wasn't a pretty year, but at the very least they might end with some dignity, which is more than I can say for the Royals.

Coming Tomorrow- The Rays gave him up when they could have paid him, so instead he became a fan-favorite outfield bat for a different low-market team. 

Mack Tonight

 

There is still this decent enough chance that the Marlins sneak into the playoffs this year. A lot of their contemporaries, such as the Pirates and Cardinals, have sunken pretty deeply below them, and they're currently 3.5 games back from the Padres-D-Backs scrum, which...all things considered, is not the worst deficit, especially for a team gaining ground. The D-Backs and Padres, as we know, are inconsistent, can drop the ball for a bit, and can allow for enough room for the Marlins to sneak in. This just takes the Marlins, equally inconsistent, to have a swell that outdoes them. And I guess we're about to see if that can happen.

I think a good way to sum up this Marlins team, just from where the production comes from, is even. This is a pretty concise group of people, with no huge superstars, no egos on the way to a bigger market, and no disconnect between factions. Otto Lopez is having an MVP caliber season as a contact superstar, but I think he knows he's not Babe Ruth. He's a very good player having a great year, and helping this team compete, but he's not a 'carry the team on his back' guy, like Griffin Conine can be in extras. I don't see Joe Mack as that type either, but he has been extremely good on a come-up, with 12 homers and 39 RBIs in 85 games. Mack came in as an alternative to Agustin Ramirez has backup catcher, then when Liam Hicks got traded he got the job fully, and has honestly earned it. He's very good behind the plate, hits for power and is young enough to grow into a cool piece for these teams. Considering that the Marlins' old catching battery is now the Rays' current catching battery, it's nice to see a young catcher who's probably sticking around. 

I did not expect Heriberto Hernandez to lead this team in homers this year, nor did I expect Esteury Ruiz to lead this team in steals. But here we are, and it's honestly really cool. Very speedy team honestly, four guys with 20 or more steals. And then you've got Stowers, Caissie, Conine and Hernandez covering the power faction of the team, though 6 different guys have over 50 RBIs, including Javier Sanoja. I just really enjoy how this team has come together as a hitting unit, and it makes me kind of optimistic, even if nothing happens this year.

I think the pitching without Max Meyer has been somewhat worrying, but the old Sandy Alcantara is back, going deep into games, making all his starts and doing exactly what he's supposed to. Alcantara's 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA, and he's looked really good recently. Eury Perez doesn't look bad either, with 142 Ks and a 3.44 ERA in 24 starts. Janson Junk and Ryan Gusto have come around and are pretty steady starting options. They've been letting Tyler Phillips start more games, and he's not too bad, with only a handful of outings where he actually got chased. The bullpen's seen better days though [why did they trade Lake Bachar??] but there's a lot of good young guys getting better. 

I think logically this Marlins team is maybe a year away, but they could also get hot enough to chase the competition and sneak into the race. Stranger things have happened, and with this Marlins team having as many facets and strengths as they do, you can't exactly count them out. And so I won't.

Coming Tonight: Despite no longer being on the Yankees, this guy is still an excellent hitting infield option doing his best in a less-competitive market.

Flexing From Third

 

Right now, despite a slight difference in overall pictures, there's a team in each league that is currently playing the same role. They are currently in third place in the division, overcame a really rough run, have a 1% shot of a division win thanks to either a comfy favorite or two comfy favorites within a handful of games of each other. They both have some bright young pitching, a few very important pieces joining the team in September, and a halfway decent shot at competition. Right now one team, the Red Sox, has a five game lead over any other wild card competitors [from the second spot], and the other team, the Diamondbacks, has a decent hold on the third spot but are quarreling with the Padres for it. 

The Sox are 74-63, the D-Backs are 73-65. Both teams want it. My prediction is that only one of them will make it, and the other one probably won't despite having a better record than like 2/3rds of the AL. 

The Red Sox, even after getting lambasted by the Yankees this past weekend, look as ready as they did last year, and arguably the lineup's even beefier now. Willson Contreras is having a terrific season as a power corner, with 26 homers and 79 RBIs. Ceddanne Rafaela, aside from his terrific center field defense, is still a ridiculous clutch hitter, leads the league in doubles with 32 and has 67 RBIs. Wilyer Abreu has 23 homers and 70 RBIs. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story just got back and are making the power numbers look even better. I am a little concerned that Adley Rutschman still isn't hitting very well, and has yet to really embrace playing for a competitor again, but on paper this is a team that can go deep.

The downside is that the rotation, while still sporting Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez, is still a little untested. Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle have impressed in full seasons, but neither have displayed the elite dominance that the team will need to take down a Yankee team or a Guardians team. Bennett is 9-6 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP, but he's had some rough starts that are beginning to pile up. Same with Payton Tolle, who's got a 3.09 ERA and 141 Ks. The only guy on this team with over 10 wins is Sonny Gray, meaning the depth guys don't get the team behind them as much as they should. And when some starts have to be handed to Patrick Sandoval and his 4.20 ERA and others need to be an opener game eventually handed to Brayan Bello, who's NOT getting it done at all this year, that reassurance would be nice. This team needs to be durable in a postseason environment, and when Suarez and Sandoval can struggle against New York even in August, it's a bit concerning.

The reason I think they're a better bet than Arizona is that the Sox have so much going on, so much rejoining the team and so much that we know works in October. The D-Backs haven't been since 2023, have a lot of shaky or injured heroes from that team, have minor pieces coming back but have heard mum on the status of Corbin Burnes, and have to outdo the Padres, who arguably have more going on.

The D-Backs went 15-13 this past month, meaning they did actually get a nice amount done but only slightly broke even. Losing Ketel Marte did not help, especially considering how he went out. That's definitely not an ego boost. This team also just lost Mike Soroka again, which isn't ideal especially if Gallen's still out. 

The good news is the core is still surging. Corbin Carroll doesn't have enough going on offensively to truly vie for an MVP this year, but he's got 16 triples, 19 homers, 20 steals and some impressive plays in right, so he's still the talk of the town. Arenado's come back season has crossed the 20 homer mark. Perdomo and Moreno have been very steady and very helpful. Ryan Waldschmidt has filled in pretty well in center, he's hitting .267 with decent contact work and great defense. Jordan Lawlar's finally back, and somehow is getting the edge over Lars Nootbaar. It's not an overly wild offensive team, but they do good, steady work and sneak their way out of tough situations.

Without Gallen, and without Merrill Kelly's better numbers, the rotation has needed to evolve naturally. Eduardo Rodriguez's better numbers has returned, and he's at ace status again, with a 14-4 record and a 2.50 ERA. Somehow Brandon Pfaadt came back after a rough first two months and became must-see TV again, being the starter for 7 wins after coming back [with a 6-0 personal record in that time]. He's been getting rocked a little recently, but it's still a decent year for Pfaadt, with a 3.50 ERA in 24 games. People thought he'd be the future of the franchise when he came up as a postseason hero, and while that hasn't exactly happened he's still come through when the team has needed him. 

Also, this team has a very underrated bullpen. Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo, Brandyn Garcia, Gerardo Carillo and now Justin Martinez have all been excellent, especially in the last couple months. This team has even gotten Dennis Santana to stop sucking. That is an ACCOMPLISHMENT. 

I do ultimately think the Sox have a better road to October than the D-Backs, but the D-Backs are the kind of team who could sneak in and catch fire, much like they did in 2023. I'm not sure how likely it is given the Padres' strengths, and given the fact that the Marlins are still somewhat in the race, but I could see it somehow happening even with everything I know to be true.

Coming Tomorrow- Last year the Marlins had a starting catcher. Then they traded him to Tampa in favor of a younger guy. He started this year. Then they traded HIM to Tampa for a younger guy. This is that younger guy, and he's playing well enough to not exactly start scouting for beachfront property in Tampa about now.

Shallow Cal

 

The good news is that last week, Cal Raleigh returned to form with a 3-homer day against the Philadelphia Phillies, bringing him to 18 homers and 52 RBIs in a shortened, maligned season. The bad news is everything else.

People have made the claim that the lack of Cal Raleigh's better numbers have led to the decline of the Mariners this year, and I'm not at liberty to disagree. The pitching has been very good, Arozarena's having a terrific year, there's still stars in this lineup, but without Raleigh, the weight is gone. Julio tried carrying this team for a bit, Josh Naylor did before he started hitting, Cole Young did, but it all felt imbalanced. By the time Cal got back and started hitting it was too late. The Mariners are hitting .228 as a unit, and the pitching now has a 4.13 ERA cumulatively because even Kirby and Woo are struggling at this point, without even mentioning the bullpen. The playoffs are more and more of a fantasy unless the AL West picture changes drastically, as they are still only 4 games back from the division. Right now though, the losses really are piling up, and there have been some huge losses in the past week. Yesterday was Kade Anderson's second start, and while I'm writing this before the game's actually happened, I sincerely hope the Mariners didn't ruin it for him. But there's always this idea that they could. 

The Raleigh thing may even stem back to the World Baseball Classic, where he was really weird about turning down a handshake to Randy Arozarena despite the fact that they're literally teammates. Like, you don't need to keep kayfabe, this isn't even Olympics level stuff, it's a friendly tourney for bragging rights. The idea is that this ruined his clubhouse goodwill, despite what interviews have said, and him getting off to a horrible start this year didn't exactly help that. He's now hitting .165, which is *better*, but after last season, it's not exactly a strong mark, especially going forward trying to make the Mariners a league superpower. And so the idea of 'was this a fluke' is now circling. The Mariners have had a lot of sure things fade upon entry, including Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Ben Williamson. The worry is that Cal Raleigh, despite how amazing he's been the last few years, might be headed to that category. I personally do not think he is, I think this is just a rough season, but in baseball things really can turn that quickly.

And so there's already the thought of 'if Cal Raleigh can't carry this team, who can?' Cole Young is already a really sharp young star, he's a contact hitter with excellent infield defense, I think he's a sure bet for a while. Kade Anderson seems to be the real deal, and was as MLB-ready as everyone was thinking. The idea is that Cole Emerson is gonna come into his own and relieve J.P. Crawford of his duties, which might be a little overdue honestly. Now there's the idea of Brock Rodden as a corner infield guy, and if he starts hitting that'll be even better. Naylor's here for a while, as are Julio and Cal. I'm not thinking Randy Arozarena is gonna stick around given the option to stay in free agency [Scott Boras is his agent after all], but hopefully there's enough that can be done to patch this up. 

I think 2026 was very much a harsh lesson for the Mariners, one that still isn't completely unsalvageable but is in danger of being so. If they don't pick back up next season and reverse the narrative, the 2025 season may be a grave 'what could have been' in a history of rotten luck.

Coming Tonight: With how his season started, I did not expect this guy to be such an important piece of this Diamondbacks team hitting the stretch.

Always Be Closing: That Misleading Statistic..

 

I think that when the 'save' was invented, it was a much simpler MLB climate. Relievers could still go 3 innings because they were essentially trained on the same stuff as starters. Nobody was training to just go 3 batters a day yet, and thus careers were longer. Saves were just an arbitrary 'you made sure the game wasn't a loss' thing, and then around the advent of the closing pitcher it became 'okay, you came in and polished it off on purpose', and then the save had some weight. But eventually, as the closer becomes the valued spot it became in the 90s and 00s, there eventually grows a disconnect between saves and pitching quality. You get closers after a while who save a ton of games, your Alfonsecas and Wickmans and Loopers, and do it without being terribly hard to hit. There's a lot of 30, 35 save seasons that have a 4 ERA attached to it. And eventually you segue to this current period, where the closer is less dedicated, it's more RP1, and there are guys closing games that are doing it because they're the best available option. 

And so that's how we've gotten to this current point, where Riley O'Brien of the Cardinals has made an all-star team, and leads the NL in saves with 34, without being, in my opinion, terribly great at actually closing games.

O'Brien was a Rays draftee who bounced around a ton of places before the Cardinals took him on and made him a reclamation project. Last year he was excellent in 42 appearances, with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.5 WAR. In Ryan Helsley's absence, the Cards primed JoJo Romero and O'Brien for a closing spot, and both did relatively well given the opportunity. In camp, the two fought for the closing spot, O'Brien won, and he got to close games for them all year. However, his six losses and five blown saves speak to the reality that for every effective closing appearance there's a few more really shaky ones. Against the Phillies, going into the ninth with a 4-0 lead, O'Brien gave up all 6 runs and effectively sunk the game singlehandedly. Then three days later he got up against Baltimore and gave up the ninth inning run that lost that one. He's one of those guys that can get a save while still letting a run slip by, like he did against the Cubs in May, or making it a little scarier than it should be [he gives up a lot of walks]. And thus, even with those 34 saves, O'Brien may not be an optimal reliever. The statistic tells you he's good at finishing games with wins, it doesn't tell you how dominant he was in those appearances, and compared to a Cade Smith or a Josh Hader, he's not dominant at all. 

O'Brien's rise tells you a couple things. The Cardinals require a lot of save situations, because their starting pitching isn't lights-out and there aren't a ton of blowouts, but they're also around .500 because there's 6 or 7 games that would have been wins had it not been for O'Brien. The Cardinals are very okay this year, and so is Riley O'Brien. It's really as simple as that.

You're seeing some signs things may get better, like Quinn Matthews beginning to field some starts, and the advent of Cade Winquest to potentially help the bullpen. Blaze Jordan is beginning to hit, and for his troubles has immediately gotten hurt. Joshua Baez had that amazing 3-homer game, and...frustratingly hasn't done a heck of a lot since. Next season will definitely have J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker plugged in centrally and trying to move forward, and that's a very good thing. Until then there's just gonna be a lot of awkward false starts and almosts, and 2026 is most certainly one of those, as the NL Wild Card race has pretty much broken away from the Cards at this rate. 

I guess the lesson here is that, while saves aren't as important as they used to be, relief pitching can still be the difference-maker. 

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know, a guy who nearly won an MVP last year and frustratingly refused to follow it up?