Last Gasp of the Sleeper Picks

 

It's wild, after everything that has traversed this season, that the Tigers and Cubs have...palpable shots at making the playoffs. It's not a guarantee in either case, but they're both close. As I write this, the Tigers are  3 games back from the Twins' playoff spot, while the Cubs are 5 games back from the Mets' spot. If something were to go wrong with teams above the line, these two teams could sneak their way in.

In the case of the Tigers, the momentum they've gained in the last several weeks could constitute a random October journey. Considering that these guys were sellers at the deadline, and gave up Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha, nobody really expected them to factor much into the rest of the season. They were kinda dead in June, Javier Baez was still taking up roster space, Torkelson still wasn't working, it was a mess. And then right at the beginning of August something clicked. There were a lot of roster moves, things switched around, people who weren't working were demoted, etc. And then...with a cleaner, more confident outlook, the Tigers just started winning games. 

I think the biggest catalyst for the rise in Tigers success has been production from the young players who'd lay despondent for so long. I think Parker Meadows started the season with a .059 average, then after being brought back midyear he went on a tear, he now has a .733 OPS and is one of the flashiest offensive producers on the team. Colt Keith had his big August, he's probably gonna finish the season with the 2nd-most RBIs of anyone on the team. Torkelson's even doing better now, he's got 35 RBIs and 8 homers. The bullpen improved, with Tyler Holton, Jason Foley and Will Vest returning to April levels of dominance. This kid Brant Hurter, who nearly no-hit the O's the other night, could be something, too. 

On the other hand, while the Cubs are further from the wild card spot than Detroit, they may have, like last year, evolved into a fully competent team as the season heads into its final series'. It took the Cubs forever to really find a working formula, and then you cut to now and Swanson, Bellinger, Suzuki, Taillon, Amaya--all doing well. Even Pete Crow-Armstrong, who's clearly had his offensive struggles, is beginning to put a competent rookie campaign together. In addition to 44 RBIs, 8 homers and 26 steals, he's an elite outfielder with killer speed. He's had several big game moments so far this year, and he's very much coming into his own in the majors. I also think it's wild that Christian Bethancourt's hitting .300 with the Cubs after barely hitting with Miami, but he honestly goes at his own pace. 

The Cubs have been building for longer, winning bigger and winning with more of an exclamation point. I sum up their cutthroat mindset this year by the speed in which they brought over Jorge Lopez after he defected from New York and Shawn Armstrong after the Cardinals game up, and how quickly they both became bullpen standouts for them. This is a deceptively strong Cubs team, and even if they have a longer road to a postseason spot than the Tigers, as theirs involves lapping Atlanta, it could still happen. Any of this could.

If the Tigers and Cubs make the playoffs and the Braves and Twins don't...that might be the first sign of some regime changes in the league. Yes, the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees and Guardians are all getting in, but if the little teams are moving up, their days could be numbered.

Coming Tomorrow (?): A young fireballer helps wrap things up in the Bay Area.