Tuesday, October 1, 2024

Wild Card Week Day 1: The Shifting of Tides

 

One of the few games I had any time to watch today was Tigers-Astros. And it's a funny happenstance, because it was one of the few I had any vested interest in, due to an unflinching desire to see Houston suffer, and it happened to be on ABC, the channel my TV is automatically on anyway due to how often I watch Jeopardy during weeknights. And so I watched a bit of it. Watched Skubal work, watched the small ball chip away at Valdez. And I started looking around, going '...this is really happening, right?'

It is...incredible, unlikely, and hysterical, all at the same time, that after essentially skipping to first with no competition yet again, the Astros are being matched by the freaking Detroit Tigers. A team that, by July, was dead enough to deal away two of their best players, and everyone assumed that was that. Today, people like Wenceel Perez, Trey Sweeney, Parker Meadows, Matt Vierling and Jake Rogers were getting stuff done against these guys. And all the big stars on the Astros couldn't get anything done against Tarik Skubal. Is it a Skubal-centric thing...or is this team just matching well against the Astros?

I mean, you saw in the ninth, Jason Foley and Beau Brieske got lucky, they nearly ruined the whole thing but Brieske managed to shut it down. This was so close to being a ninth inning Astros victory. But it wasn't. And so the Tigers go into Game 2, with a band of relievers rather than a still-on-rest starter, hoping that Hunter Brown befalls a similar fate and they don't have to risk a Game 3 in Houston. I'd love for the Tigers to pull this off, just cause it'd be an amazing story.


The Royals-O's series, so far, is going how I thought it would. These Orioles are just tired. They haven't figured out how to leg out a full regular season regime yet. And Cole Ragans, who's coming off another great season, shut 'em down entirely, making it a sole run by Bobby Witt Jr. as the deciding factor. What makes me think the O's could leg it out is that it was just that run, thanks to an equally impressive start from Corbin Burnes. Tomorrow will be Eflin v. Lugo, and that could be pretty cool too. I still think the Royals ultimately have this one, but you never know when the Orioles could suddenly spring to life.

I think we were all expecting the 'lolmets' moment to happen by now, and it's honestly just refreshing that it hasn't. This Mets-Brewers match was tense for a while, lots of back-and-forth nibbling away. Then the Mets broke it open in the fifth and never looked back. The key to this team is that everyone can pitch in- Jesse Winker and Starling Marte got things rolling, and then Vientos, Iglesias and Martinez finished the job. I do worry about the Mets' relatively thin pitching ceiling, Sevvy got the job done today but I'm not sure if Peterson, Manaea and Quintana are gonna be the best postseason options, especially given the strength of the field. Still, happy for the Mets, it'd be cool if they kept it going.

Padres-Braves is also going exactly how I thought. The Braves, like the O's, don't have much left. Without Marcell Ozuna they'd be cooked. They didn't have Sale tonight, so they had to start AJ Smith-Shawver, and...that went how I expected it to. It's very funny that what led them past the Braves tonight were two of the pieces they got for Juan Soto. Kyle Higashioka had a very helpful RBI after the Tatis homer, and Michael King had a BEAUTIFUL start, with 12 Ks, no runs and no walks. It makes me sad that he never got to be a postseason hurler for us, even though, yes Clarke Schmidt might still be great in October. But I'm still happy he got to be a trusted postseason starter, and I hope the Padres can clear this hurdle tomorrow.

I think 2 of these are gonna get settled tomorrow [ideally 3 but, y'know, the Astros], and at least 1 will need to go to 3 games. We'll see how right I am tomorrow.