Always Be Closing: Filling the Shoes

 

I've written about the disturbing lack of actual closing pitchers in today's 'RP1 takes it til they suck' mindset. Who do we have right now, we have Aroldis Chapman, Raisel Iglesias, Josh Hader, Kenley Jansen I suppose, and that's basically it. In another year or so I could include Jhoan Duran but we've gotta see what he's capable of over time. Everyone else is sort of holding onto their streaks and seeing if they can make a thing out of it. Gone are the days of Troy Percivals and Todd Joneses and Armando Benitezes. It's very much gig mentality. What can I do this year, forget about next year.

Which is why losing Emmanuel Clase, one of the single most dominant closers in baseball, was such a crushing blow for the Guardians. Nobody else actually commits to keeping a closing job like he does, and the dude just bets his way out of a long career. It's heartbreaking. And then, after you thought you'd have a sure thing for years, you're back to 'well who's RP1'. Just like that. Thankfully this happens to a team like Cleveland that already has a great bullpen, but it's certainly not ideal.

Cade Smith was in his second year when he got the closing gig. His freshman season was an eventful one, as he kept a 1.91 ERA in 74 games, with a 2.4 WAR and 103 Ks, plus 16 postseason strikeouts. Last year he was given the closing job upon Clase's absence, and while he blew the occasional save, he still ended the year with 16, plus a 2.93 ERA, 8 wins and 104 Ks. And how he leads the league in saves with 26, and is more than likely headed for his [well-deserved] first ASG. 

But...Cade Smith's big save season is happening in spite of what might be the weakest season of his career so far. His ERA's over 3, which hasn't happened yet, and his WHIP is also at his highest, of 1.200. He's allowing more hits, and showing more vulnerability, even if it means he's got 26 saves. Sometimes getting 40 saves happens to a Jeanmar Gomez or a Roberto Osuna, without the actual closing prowess to be good at the other aspects of the job. And so this season is just telling me how much more fit Smith is to be an eighth inning man, rather than a full closer. But it's really not his fault. There are so few closers these days, and so many more are thrust into that position without really having the gene. Sometimes you get lucky and wind up with Jacob Latz, a reliever-turned-starter-turned-closer, who's found great success in the ninth. Sometimes he will be the guy for a while, and sometimes he's just the guy right now. Cade Smith is looking like the latter, but you can never be too sure. 

The Guards have it so they're tied for first with two more games played, and this weekend series against the White Sox will no doubt decide it. They've won their last two, and they're got Rocchio and DeLauter hot, plus Steven Kwan FINALLY getting things going and playing as well as he usually does, albeit with a slightly shakier average. Once they get J-Ram back [hopefully soon] they should lock the division back up. It'll be a fairly close race to the top though, and seeing as last year proved anyone can get hot in this division at any time, they'd better be hanging on for dear life.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who hadn't been above .200 since May who suddenly went on the single wildest three day stretch in years. 

Getting his Due-bon

 

Here is a list of some people that Mauricio Dubon has been traded for before becoming an actual starting infielder, in his age-32 season, after 8 years in the bigs.

• Tyler Thornburg, a Brewers relief asset who was traded immediately before requiring surgery and barely playing any healthy games for the team, the Sox, he was traded to.
• Drew Pomeranz, who actually benefitted from a trade to Milwaukee that year.
• Michael Papierski, a guy who no one had thought of before or since.
• Nick Allen, the major league baseball equivalent of how Danny DeVito described himself in Twins ["you're telling me that I'm the leftover crap???"]

It took a WHILE for Mauricio Dubon to find a fit. It somehow didn't happen with the Giants, because right as he was about to take 2nd in 2020, Donovan Solano had an incredible breakout year. He tried to break in with the Astros, but most of the time he was stuck behind Jose Altuve or Jeremy Pena, resorting to being a backup. With Houston he developed such a fan following, even as a utility man, that the fans were upset when the team traded him. Luckily, things worked themselves out, Ha-Seong Kim got injured, and the stage was set for Dubon to get his just desserts.

Dubon as the Braves' starting shortstop has worked extremely well. He's been great on defense, AND he's got 44 RBIs and 8 homers. Offense was never the main emphasis with Dubon, but on a team like this you can't blame him for trying to blend in. Him and Ozzie Albies make an impeccable double play combo, and there's even a chance he squeezes onto the ASG roster. I'm really happy he's become a nice part of this team, and joined so many guys [Harris, Albies, Baldwin, Olson I guess] who are time-tested and proven in Atlanta. This team can still take newcomers to the fold. It seems to have worked with Dominic Smith as well.

Ultimately, though the Braves are heading into July a little worse for wear than expected. They went 10-14 this month, and the losses of Ronald Acuna, Robert Suarez and Spencer Strider might have something to do with it. They got Baldwin back mid-month, but he's gone insanely cold, and has only started hitting again fairly recently. Elder, Holmes and Perez have skidded a little in the last month, as...honestly expected. The team is still good, and still has the pieces to compete, but the Phillies just keep creeping up, and it may come to a boil in the next month if the Braves don't regain momentum.

I do have some hope for this Braves team. Until June, they had so much going for them, and when good they're better than anybody, even the Dodgers. They could get back there if they wanted, and I hope they do.

Coming Tonight: The top closer in baseball is a hard-throwing specialist from Cleveland, and somehow it's a different one than usual. 

Okay, Fine, the Rays are Good.

 

No disrespect here. The Rays are in first, and they're earning it. No 'it's cause the Yankees suck', no 'where are the stars?', none of that. Junior Caminero's gone on a home run hitting tear, Drew Rasmussen's one of the best pitchers in baseball, Yandy Diaz is a total hitting machine, Jonathan Aranda's finally getting hot, and somehow they've been able to make a closer out of former Orioles bullpen stalwart Bryan 'Shake 'n Bake' Baker. I can't even be mad, they're just really good right now. Won 7 straight, they get to play the Astros this weekend and then we get to see how long the Yankees want to drag out the losing stretch. 

Drew Rasmussen has been a key rotation figure for the Rays ever since coming over here. I gave them a lot of shit for trading Willy Adames just so Franco could get playing time, but they were able to, like so many other times, offload soon-to-be-wanting-money talent for a younger, more lucrative piece. So they got Rasmussen at the exact correct time, he had a stellar 2022, missed parts of two seasons with injuries, had a stellar 2023 and is looking at a second consecutive all-star appearance. Dude's just a sneaky-good, hard-throwing workhorse whose ERA hasn't dipped above 3 since coming over. That's honestly the crazy part, he's never finished a season with an ERA higher than 2.85 as a Ray. As a Brewer he was all over the place, but he really nailed things down in Tampa, and became a very consistent guy. I'm not sure if he's the ace, Shane McClanahan is still technically top dog, but Rasmussen is pitching better. 

I do think it's slightly worrying that we haven't seen Ryan Pepiot yet this season, but it speaks to the Rays' low-budget dominance that they're keeping the rest of the AL East at bay using guys like Nick Martinez and Griffin Jax. They technically don't have a fifth starter right now, what with Steven Matz hurt, but it's the Rays so they're using 5 relievers in a trench coat, and suddenly that's working. Again, the bullpen's been better, but Kevin Kelly and Bryan Baker have been pretty good. Baker has 21 saves. They wouldn't let him close with the O's but the Rays had an opening. I dunno why they had an opening at closer, I feel like they had a guy for that all set up last year..

I think the biggest twists of this season for the Rays are A.) that the contact game is being led by Yandy Diaz, who's hitting .329 and already has 100 hits, and B.) that this team that's known for its contact game and has two proven starters who have not hit any home runs and are not expected to...also has a pretty decent power core, just from Aranda and Caminero. Caminero has 24 homers right now. He committed to the Home Run Derby before anyone was even thinking about the Home Run Derby. Somebody just said 'hello' to him, and he went 'I WANNA DO THE DERBY AGAIN'. And what the hell do you say to that?? No??? 'I wanna potentially ruin my swing for the rest of the season' 'Okay, go ahead, champ.' There's a reason there isn't one of these for pitchers. 

Anyway. The Rays are really good right now. Is it sustainable? Who knows. Yankees are technically the better team, and they do this every June. A month from now, if the Yankees still suck, we'll see. With the exception of 2023, the Yankees remember to stop sucking at some point. We'll see if the Rays can outrun them there, with their four guys that don't hit home runs and their three guys that aren't here to hit at all..

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros, like absolute fools, traded him, right as an opening emerged in his new team's starting lineup. To say he's made the most of it would be an understatement. 

Fred Over Heels

 

Realistically, there probably aren't going to be a lot of new members of the 3000 hit club in the next decade or so. The time of people shooting for 200 hits instead of 50 homers and 200 strikeouts is over, and it's made it difficult for career hits totals to keep stacking up over time. Pujols, Ichiro and Cabrera got past the mark because the 2000s still valued contact hitting. Freddie Freeman has over 2500 hits, and is theoretically young enough, and in enough of a peak period, to cross that threshold. But he's also 36, and he only has one more year on his contract. Plus, even if he doesn't get to 3000 hits, Freeman's still a Hall of Famer. It's obvious now, and the 2024 World Series cemented that case. The 3000th hit would just be frosting rather than the key to entry.

This mostly says a lot about just how great Freddie Freeman's been for his whole career. There's only one season in sixteen full ones that ended with a WAR total lower than 2, and that was Freeman's 2011 rookie campaign, where he hit 21 homers with 76 RBIs and a .282 average. Literally every other season has been a 2 or higher WAR, with five seasons reaching 5 WAR or higher. Every season since 2013, Freeman's sported an .800 OPS or higher, and his lowest batting average in this period was a .276 average in 2015. Freeman is classic in the sense that in an era where nobody really has a reason to hit .300, he consistently does so and in a way that really helps whatever team he's on. The Dodgers picking him up in 2022 really was perfectly timed, and since then Freeman's continued to give his absolute all, with four straight All-Star Game nominations [followed swiftly by a fifth very shortly]. Where many people figured Freeman would start trailing off, he's stayed consistent, and is still a very crucial piece of the Dodgers' offensive output.

Right now, Freeman has a .293 average, 13 homers, 46 RBIs and a 2.6 WAR. Which is very good. And yet because this team has Shohei Ohtani, Andy Pages and Max Muncy on it, it may look comparatively pedestrian. Pages is having an incredible year, with a league-leading 60 RBIs. Ohtani's got 18 homers and 50 RBIs, and he's going 8-2 with a 1.58 ERA in addition. Muncy's got 17 homers and 37 RBIs, and might be starting an ASG along with Freeman. That's your core, that's your central guys...and that doesn't even include Mookie Betts and Kyle Tucker, who are both having down years, Will Smith, who's hurt, or Teoscar Hernandez, who was just activated from the IL. The team is that good, and Freeman is both crucial and taken for granted at the same time.

Not a ton of flaws from this Dodgers team recently. Maybe Sheehan and Sasaki could be doing a little better, but when the top 3 are Ohtani, Yamamoto and Wrobleski, and Eric Lauer's hanging out as a very sharp 6th guy, it's not the biggest issue. 

The Dodgers have to play the Padres this weekend. If you've been around the last few years, you know what this means. The Padres are 12 games behind LA this time, so it's not like a 'if they sweep, they take the division' situation like the last few Padres-Dodgers series'. Basically, every time the Padres are getting good, they have to play the Dodgers and can't capitalize. But here the Padres have nothing to capitalize on so maybe they'll actually win.

Coming Tonight: Shane McClanahan, I'm sorry, but you might not be the ace in Tampa anymore. That is, unless the Rays decide to trade this guy very soon.

The Six-Man Formation

 

In 2024, the Mariners had Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Luis Castillo healthy and thriving, Bryan Woo activated midyear and surging, and Emerson Hancock hanging around not pitching well. In 2025, Gilbert, Kirby and Miller were tired, with Miller showing up late for some terrific postseason starts, Castillo was healthy all year, Woo was healthy all year, and Hancock was once again shaky. So now, this year...everybody's healthy. Gilbert, Kirby, Woo, Castillo, Miller and Hancock, all healthy, all aiding the team. Which means we've got a six man rotation where virtually any of them can be relied upon for a great start...in addition to an offense that isn't afraid to go nuts. It may not show immediately because of their rough June, but...the Mariners have more going on than usual right now.

Right now it's really only Castillo who's having a poor year, and even then it'll still come with an occasional dominant start that's vintage Castillo. He's still 33 and a little worse for wear but at the end of the day he's still Luis Castillo. Everybody else is on point. Logan Gilbert is once again coming off like a true ace, with a 1.010 WHIP, a 3.42 ERA, 107 Ks and a 2.2 WAR. The dominance that has kept him at the forefront of this team has persisted, and Gilbert is still one of the most consistent pitching forces in the league. Getting to see what 'good' Emerson Hancock looks like has also been a highlight of this season, and he's got a 3.47 ERA with 87 Ks. Bryce Miller has been excellent since coming off the IL, he has a 1.97 ERA, a 0.723 WHIP and a 1.9 WAR in 8 games. This is exactly what he was doing in the playoffs last year, and it's all he's after now. Woo and Kirby have been a little more pedestrian but they're still steady, reliable options that just have higher ERAs than expected. But nobody's getting pushed out there to eat innings, it's not a 'draw straws' kind of rotation like Colorado's. That's why there's six guys in that rotation, they're all excellent and even if Castillo has to do long relief every so often, he can still swing back in and dominate from the jump.

The team itself however has been struggling of late, and are currently fighting to stay atop the AL West thanks to both a rough couple weeks and a recent surge from the Rangers. They've lost a lot of series' against people they could have beaten, teams like the Orioles, Nationals, Red Sox, Guardians and Pirates. Not only is Josh Naylor not really hitting that well, but he's beginning to get a poor reputation. This after he brought so much joy to this fanbase last year is a very sharp turn of events. Luke Raley and J.P. Crawford had nice starts but have both gone very cold. And Cal Raleigh...he's still not hitting, and the worry that he hit his ceiling last year is about to emerge. Or maybe the fear that they traded away Harry Ford prematurely.

I still think the Mariners are the best team in this division, and they still have the leverage even if the Rangers threaten from behind. Julio Rodriguez, Randy Arozarena, Cole Young and Logan Gilbert are all at the top of their games, and the Rangers don't have near as much going for them at the moment. We'll see what happens after the ASG break.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy with a very good chance of starting the All-Star Game at 1st for the NL for...well, certainly not the first time. 

Enclosed with a High Ceiling

 

So, to recap. At the MLB level right now, the Milwaukee Brewers currently have, up and thriving, Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Brice Turang, Cooper Pratt, Shane Drohan and Logan Henderson. And then waiting in the minors, they have Jett Williams, Jesus Madé, Jeferson Quero, Luis Pena and Luis Lara. And remember, right now, with all those great players still waiting, they are a 1st place team with one of the best records in baseball and the second-most wins of anyone. For a rebuilding team, they could not be doing better.

And again, last year when people kept referring to the Brewers as a 'rebuilding team', despite the fact that they'd just made the NLCS and were expected to compete again, I had faith they'd be doing something like this. The signs were there. Obviously flipping Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins for prospects was a cost-saving measure that was meant to lower the payroll, but the windfall they got in return was enough to keep them competitive. They got David Hamilton, Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat, Jett Williams and Angel Zerpa for those guys, and those have been very crucial organizational pieces this year. So I fully predicted they'd be a league power this year, and of course they are.

It was mostly the marquee guy above that pointed me towards that. Jackson Chourio is 22, a 3-year vet, and already one of the most reliable hitters in Milwaukee. Even with a month removed, he's still a serious piece of this team, hitting .291 with an .863 OPS, 11 homers and 31 RBIs. In just 48 games. If there was any justice, Chourio would be an all-star this year. I'm not sure if it's going to happen, though someone will need to replace Acuña if he makes it on, and it might have to be him. This guy feels way older than 22, and hits like a season veteran even this early on. He's great in the outfield, he's great hitting for contact, he's a great power bat, his base stealing is down a little from last year but he's still capable. I know Yelich still exists, between injuries, but Chourio is the kind of guy a team can be based around, and he really does offer a lot of hope to this team, who got so close last year but were trounced by LA.

Chourio, Turang, Contreras, Bauers and Vaughn make up a truly powerful core, and Cooper Pratt is juuust figuring things out as well, with 8 hits and 2 RBIs in 13 at-bats. You're also seeing production from Shane Drohan, who's being handed more starts and has made the most of his last few opportunities. Harrison's getting his ERA back down after Vegas, Sproat's trying to balance things out, Miz is still killing it, and Woodruff's been working a clinic as well. I do worry a bit about the number of pitching prospects the Brewers have tried this year that haven't especially worked [Craig Yoho, Coleman Crow, Carlos Rodriguez, Brian Fitzpatrick], but...with everything that has worked, and with how young most of them are, it's likely not worth it. 

I sincerely hope the Brewers can keep this up and hopefully be a match for the Dodgers and other monoliths in the playoffs. Chourio I still get a very good vibe from, much like the rest of this team, and they seem to be after something this year in particular.

Coming Tonight: The Mariners searched for a homegrown ace after Felix Hernandez left. It did not take long for one to show up, but it took a bit for him to fully embrace ace status.

Worst to First in Two Years

 

Believe it. The Chicago White Sox are 1st place in the AL Central, over .500, and have the third-best record in the AL. They have a better record than any team in the AL West. 6 of their starting 9 have a WAR of 1.7 or higher, and the team's top 10 WAR leaders all have WARs of 1.5 or more. Only two members of the lineup are over 30, and they both have either 9 or 10 homers. And it took getting rid of Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet, Lenyn Sosa, Andrew Vaughn, Curtis Mead, Eloy Jimenez, Dylan Cease and Lucas Giolito to get them there.

The team is being led by rookies and second years, and they're winning games. They have Sam Antonacci playing a very crucial contact role and playing left, and he's delivering! 23 years old, no MLB experience, and he's hitting .291 with an .803 OPS and 65 hits in as many games. Like Peters and Meidroth, Antonacci isn't really a power guy, but he's consistently on target and he's able to keep the hits coming. That's an underrated skill that this team is already going all-in on, the contact specialists. It's nice having a Murakami or a Colson Montgomery who can hit homers, but there's serious depth here. Kyle Teel's back, and he has 5 hits and 6 RBIs in 6 games. Tristan Peters is a doubles machine. This team does have 3 guys with over 19 homers, but they're not banking fully on that, which may be why they're a first place team. It's easy for the Guardians to do the sustainable cheap contact thing, but there's way more depth with this Chicago team.

You're also seeing the White Sox combine a 2024-era approach [get two recently-returned KBO/Japanese league exports and plug them in before they become too expensive] with modern thinking [just draft great pitchers]. Anthony Kay and Erick Fedde are here to eat innings mostly, but Fedde's been very good recently when opened for, and Kay still has some tricks left despite all those HBPs. Davis Martin and Sean Burke are the real thing though, and hopefully whatever was troubling Shane Smith clears up soon. It's looking more like a rotation now and less like an array of people who needed a job. Same with the bullpen: Sean Newcomb and Seranthony Dominguez have been plucked into unlikely roles but they're having some nice moments. Newcomb has a 2.54 ERA and is once again proving how smart it was to make him a bullpen guy. Dominguez has kept the closing position and has 12 saves, despite Bryan Hudson arguably giving him a run for his money.

Are the White Sox in the clear, despite this nice run? No, absolutely not. The Guardians just got Chase de Lauter back and are still a very good team. You can also never truly count out the Tigers with their level of talent, or even the Royals. I think there's a chance the White Sox keep this pace up and go for a playoff spot, but I also wonder what this team could do differently from the more tested late-2010s teams, all of which struck out given the chance at playoff supremacy. They have to prove, if they are for real, that they're better than their predecessors. Which will be difficult, but with this many contact hitters it's possible.

Coming Tomorrow: This guy's ceiling has been said to resemble Ronald Acuna's but with more power. He's three years in and all that's missing is the name brand recognition. 

Met Down

 

The big if with this 2026 Mets team is going to be 'if the Mets hadn't spent all that money on veteran lineup presence clogging the depth chart, and didn't think about emphasizing the defensive possibilities of Bo Bichette and Jorge Polanco at the corners, or if they hadn't put all that money up to get Juan Soto his own box at CitiField, or if they didn't throw the bank at Sean Manaea after an upswing KNOWING he's an up and down pitcher, or if they hadn't banked on Devin Williams thinking the problem was the Bronx....would the Benge-Ewing-Soto outfield be the talk of the season?'

Obviously the Mets still would have needed to trade Brandon Nimmo to clear the room, and eventually grow tired of Tyrone Taylor, but whatever the circumstances...on a better team this would be a good sign. Soto is still A-tier, and leads the NL in OPS right now with 17 homers and 39 RBIs, somehow pedestrian for Soto. Benge, after a slow April, has sprung into motion, now hitting .257 with 9 homers and 32 RBIs, plus 11 steals. A.J. Ewing, a true rookie at 21, has a .279 average and 19 RBIs in 44 games. Ewing and Benge are looking like the future, a lot like Nimmo and Conforto were for a bit. And if the team were better...more people would be aware of this. But it's like the one good part of this team.

The Phillies series, even with a win snuck in, was still an embarrassment, and brought the team down to 39-50, a really torrid record that not even the departure of Carlos Mendoza could really stop. The idea was for Peralta, McLean and Senga to be an unbeatable three, and they're not. Plain and simple. The ghost fork simply does not work anymore, and everyone knows it. Peralta's not throwing his best stuff, and his ERA's at 4.50. Even McLean, fundamentally a terrific arm, has a 4 ERA and a 4-5 record. Zach Thornton and Jonah Tong tried to right things but aren't there yet. The bullpen is only marginally better, and Weaver, Brazoban and Raley are trying to undo all that Tobias Myers and Devin Williams have done, meaning that the Brewers guys just aren't doing it out of Milwaukee. And Brandon Sproat, for the most part, isn't really having that problem the other way. 

Want a sobering stat? The hitters on this team have a combined 2.8 WAR. If you take Juan Soto out of it, it's 0.2. This team is hitting .231 as well, and I feel like Soto's .300 average is keeping that up. This is not what Soto signed up for. He was told he was gonna be one of many, not just the one. If he'd have known that, he'd still be in left in Yankee Stadium right now, and lord knows where Cody Bellinger would even be.

The goal for the rest of the season might just be for the Mets to remain dignified, which is quite a concept. Cause at least the Red Sox are having a better week than their reputation means. The White Sox are a 1st place team. The A's are competitive. The Mets are what you've heard, and they can only do so much to dispute it. 

Coming Tonight: A rookie for the White Sox stepping into a crucial contact spot at the right time. 

Never Ced

 

So...Yanks-Sox caught us at a weird moment. We were 3-4 since the Reds series started, and now we're 3-6 [I'm writing this before the game last night]. It had been a while since our last cold spell, so we were kind of due, but this is the kind of thing where...we might have accidentally given the Red Sox life. And I'd rather we didn't do that.

The Sox don't have a fully terrific team, especially with Jarren Duran still being a disappointment, but they're creeping up to the O's in the standings and are beginning to scare me a little, like they might be something after all. Early on this season, we were calling Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle disappointments and now they're all having really nice seasons. The rotation looks genuinely excellent right now, across the board. I know how often it feels like it's being tied together with a rubber band, but this is a very compact group of 5 solid hurlers, not weighed down by a guy fighting an injury [sorry Garrett Crochet]. Ranger Suarez is looking Phillies-good, and has a 2.83 ERA with 84 Ks. Connelly Early has something resembling ace numbers, with 7 wins, 88 Ks and a 3.59 ERA. Sonny Gray is 9-1 with his ERA under 2, and barring a lower K total than usual he's looking like his old dominant self, which is very good for a guy that felt like a buyout. Tolle's a terrific leverage guy who kept the Yankees down to only one or two hits the other night. And Jake Bennett's slowly learning the ropes, and has a 3.27 ERA in his first 6 MLB starts. This is a legitimately great rotation that could get even better if Crochet comes back without much difference. The bullpen's a little shaky, but they have Chapman, at least for now. 

It's the lineup that's a bit hazardous, despite the spark keeping it interesting. Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have remained the steady backbone of this lineup, continually providing excellent lineup support and great everyday defense. Rafaela leads the team in doubles with 18, and has 35 RBIs and 10 steals. Abreu has 10 homers and 38 RBIs, and is having a more traditional power year. Both are integral to this lineup, more than even Duran has been with his .198 lineup and 98 Ks. What's really upsetting is that the young core the team was trying to set up last year is nowhere to be found. Kristian Campbell has yet to make the bigs this year, and both Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony are hurt. As is Trevor Story, as custom. So now we have Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler plugged in playing those roles, and you can kinda tell something's missing. Seigler's batting .300 through 10 games, but I'm not sure how much of a ceiling he has with the Sox. Durbin's doing better than he was but he's still just a .229 hitter, Yoshida's having another down year, Wong is surpassing Narvy again. Barring Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras, there's not really a ton to this lineup. Which is kinda upsetting.

The Sox have the momentum right now, and could use that, and the pitching, to ride up the standings a little and give the top 2 teams some heat. I don't think this means they're a full competitor yet but it means I'm not writing them off as much as I was.

Coming Tonight: He had a big hit on Opening Day, and has remained on the roster long enough to be one of the few people on his team actually hitting. 

A Control Artist in Denver

 

...sounds crazy, no?

Tomoyuki Sugano finding success in the MLB despite not overthrowing or being an especially remarkable athlete is one of those complex stories you only get every so often. Remember, Jefry Yan, who jumps a mile high when he gets an out, will likely never make the bigs, but Sugano, even with his flaws, still stays dominant, even in a slightly different definition of dominance.

Fundamentally, Sugano is not Jacob Misiorowski. He's not even Parker Messick. He doesn't throw hard, he doesn't strike people out, and he doesn't go too deep. Sugano is an arsenal picture who keeps it in the park and goes by efficiency and trickery. He's 36 years old, and his fastball peaked in the 2010s in Japan. What he has left is intelligence and form, and that goes a long way. He's 8-4 so far this year, with a 4.80 ERA and 16 homers allowed. Now, in Denver of course he's gonna allow a lot of home runs, but he allowed 32 last year in Baltimore. Putting a leverage pitcher in Coors Field could be a recipe for disaster [as Michael Lorenzen could tell you], but Sugano keeps winning games and throwing strikes, and he still very much has a job in Denver. Will he get lit up? Yes, sometimes. But he's able to hold the Cubs to 3 runs, or the Pirates to 1 run, or the Reds scoreless. He doesn't get lit up terribly often, and even when he does he still finishes out the start. Just a consistent, steady, reliable guy playing for a team that needs something reliable.

Anyway, the Rockies are once again last in the MLB. Not as embarrassingly as last year, but it's still going pretty poorly. They've found a winning combo with Hunter Goodman and T.J. Rumfield, that's definitely the answer. And Kyle Karros, Willi Castro and Cole Carrigg are making decent progress. Carrigg at least has an .860 OPS in 16 games, and already has 11 RBIs, so there's not a ton of learning curve. Karros there sort of is a learning curve, it's taken him a bit to get going, but he's up to .250 and has decent contact perks, so that's a start. I also credit this team for finding great seasons from Jake McCarthy, Mickey Moniak and Troy Johnston. The rest of the lineup is painfully replacement level, including the once promising Ezequiel Tovar and the still-not-all-the-way-there Jordan Beck. Pitching-wise it's not much better. Feltner, Freeland and Lorenzen are all struggling. Dollander was doing well but got hurt. Sean Sullivan might be a decent rotation option if he played literally anywhere else. The bullpen's actually kinda okay but even Victor Vodnik's having a rough time out there.

It is nice to see success stories and signs of life, but it's still not an especially impressive full team effort, and it's not too much further than last year. Like, again...Tomoyuki Sugano is counted as a major success story here, with his 4.80 ERA. Maybe someday they can have a full squad capable of rising beyond replacement level novelty guys, but until then, that's gonna be what keeps the lights on sadly.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy about to suit up against my Yankees and hopefully this doesn't go as badly for my team as the last two nights. 

Reid 'Em and Weep

 

Gotta say, Reid Detmers has had a really weird career. Pitches a no-hitter in his first full season, steadily builds a reputation in his sophomore season, pitches hurt in 2024, then is the 6th man in the rotation who pitches mainly out of the bullpen in 2025. And now he's starting again and having one of his best seasons yet. It's rare for a guy to not miss a season over his first 6, but Detmers has at least played a role in this team's picture even if he's not at 100%. You have so many pitchers that'll be no factor in a team's build for 2 years then come back and recapture momentum. Detmers has been active for the Angels even when he's been bad.

So it makes this season, where his ERA's at 3.93, his WHIP's at 1.053, and he's thrown 104 strikeouts even before June, even more of a triumph. The man never left, he just bode his time, and now he's got a legitimate starring role in the Angels' success, alongside Jose Soriano. And for his efforts....he's probably gonna get traded.

Again, because Detmers is only 26, he's honestly a really good trade deadline asset, and this season's proving his ceiling is still very high. He's had a small bit of trouble recently, especially his previous start [I'm writing this before I know how he did last night], but overall he's still a solid, reliable starter who's used the vacancies from Anderson and Kikuchi to make even more of an impact on this team. Even when he was good, Detmers was only like the 3rd or 4th man, now he's a solid #2 to the still-strong Soriano [8-4 with 102 Ks], and them, along with Walbert Urena, have made for a much more solid Angels rotation than anyone thought.

Now...without Mike Trout, the offense isn't exactly stellar, but we knew that as well. Neto, Peraza and Schanuel are decent centerpieces, but Neto currently leads the AL in strikeouts, and none of them have an OPS over .800 [yet somehow Wade Meckler does]. The exciting replacement level smashes we spoke of last time are all basically gone, with only Donovan Walton remaining. Denzer Guzman and Christian Moore, on call-ups, have ranged from okay to forgettable. Lowe and Adell are pissing people off. It's just not an especially varied offensive strategy right now, and I don't know if Neto can really carry things as much as the team wants him to.

The Angels probably won't finish anywhere else but last, as I don't see the Astros, A's or Rangers finishing with a worse record. Some big pieces will likely go at the deadline, including Detmers, and possibly even Soriano or Trout. I have no idea when the Angels will next be good, and firing the GM isn't gonna salvage things if the owner deliberately wants the team to lose. 

Coming Tonight: Many Japanese pitchers are tricky flamethrowers who out leverage you easily. But sometimes you get a guy who's a pure control artist who gets you out just by outthinking you. And somehow one of those is working in Colorado. 

B-Rey of Hope

 

And for the FIRST post I'm writing on my NEW laptop...a fresh take on an old classic. Bryan Reynolds having a spine-shattering comeback year in Pittsburgh. That last 'in Pittsburgh' part is the baffling bit. Every year for the past four years there's been the same narrative of 'will the Pirates trade Reynolds to the Yankees'. And they never do. And the Pirates are better for it, because now I can't imagine that lineup without him. Yes, this lineup has Konnor Griffin, Brandon Lowe, Nick Gonzales, Ryan O'Hearn and, when pressed, Oneil Cruz, but Reynolds is still the central force behind this team.

And that's wild considering that last year, Reynolds wasn't looking like himself. The strikeouts and errors piled up, the homers were at a surprising low [16, the same as his rookie year], and it just looked like he was out of gas. Now you could do what Tommy Pham did and blame the thermidor, or you could actually make an effort to get better, and that's what B-Rey did. Right now he's hitting .289 with an .889 OPS, 11 home runs and 52 RBIs. That RBI total is putting him on track for his first ever 100 RBI year, which is wild to think about considering he's 31, but as a contact guy more than anything I kinda get it. The pop is undeniable though, especially this year.

I did not think a veteran power core would work for this Pirates team, but Reynolds, Lowe and O'Hearn are exactly what the lineup needed. Lowe's on track for a second straight ASG appearance, he's got 19 homers and 52 RBIs. O'Hearn has 11 homers and 45 RBIs, and is trying to distract from some poor defense [much like Oneil Cruz was]. I don't think the Marcell Ozuna thing worked as well as they'd hoped, but one-dimensional power is still something I guess. Those guys fit in well with the young contact guys like Griffin and Gonzales, and it's led to this team having a .257 average, which is pretty damn good considering the idea was that this team was supposed to rally behind a starting pitcher.

As for said starting pitcher, uh...Paul Skenes is having a rather normal year after a few tough starts. He's got a 3.10 ERA, a 6-7 record and 114 Ks, which are good numbers for most pitchers but pedestrian for Skenes. If this is what a down year looks like for the big man, I guess I'll take it. Good news is that Braxton Ashcraft's stepped up his a-game behind Skenes, and has a 7-3 record, a 3.07 ERA and 107 Ks. Skenes still has the lower WHIP but Ashcraft's arguably having the more dominant season right now...which is kind of insane to say out loud. Chandler, Keller and Jones are coming around, they've got higher ERAs than they need but are still capable of nice starts. Bullpen's still a little messy but Gregory Soto's actually a pretty decent option in the ninth now.

The Pirates are at .500, and they need to win some games against the Reds to maintain what little leverage they still have. Cause then they've gotta go to Philly, and that'll be interesting for sure.

Coming Tomorrow- After a few years of partial use, bullpen use and general misuse, a guy who's striking out just about everybody as a way of trying to get out of Anaheim.

A 2nd, a 6th and a Last

 

I was on a call with someone yesterday. Oh yeah, two brief life updates- 1, I'm on the precipice of a new job, that'll likely pan out and I'll be able to regularly buy cards again other than TCDB stuff. 2, I'm on the precipice of a new laptop, cause the new job requires a software my current laptop's physically unable to take on, so this is the last post being written by ol' faithful, which I got in July 2017, also on the precipice of a new job actually. This laptop has served me very well, and owes me nothing, other than like...the ability to take on iOS 15.6. So hopefully today I'll be moving onto laptop #3, probably a similar make and model to laptops 1 and 2. I look forward to writing posts and making customs on it.

But to backtrack, I was on a call with the guy who's giving me this job potentially [it's looking very good and if I do this project as well as I think I will, it's mine], and I emphasized that I use social media mainly to talk about my own idiosyncrasies, as well as baseball. And we talked baseball for a little bit. His team is the Royals. And he's at a point where they could be selling or could be on the way back up. So it's a moment of indistinct haze. 

And I just said 'well how about this Caglianone kid, right?'. And that made him a little more hopeful.

It's weird that a team that already had Bobby Witt Jr., and Salvy Perez in that matter, needed a Jac Caglianone, but here he is, saving the team once again. Cags is 23, and has the confidence and full MLB attitude that he lacked in a call-up last year. And right now he and Witt sit at the top of the team leaderboard together, as intended. Caglianone is hitting .268 with an .822 OPS, 30 RBIs and 14 homers, which is the most on the team. Kinda wild that a team with Bobby Witt Jr. and two power-hitting catchers has someone else leading in homers, but it SHOULD be Caglianone. He's just a really reliable all-around hitter, and him coming to prominence is a very good thing for this Royals team.

Especially considering all those huge injuries that have hit, essentially all at once. Maikel Garcia, Cole Ragans, Kyle Isbel, Vinnie Pasquantino, Kris Bubic, Carlos Estevez, Jonathan India and Alec Marsh are all hurt. That is a huge chunk of the 2024 playoff team, and a huge chunk of the team's WAR total since Quatraro took over. So it's really no wonder they're in last, the whole backbone's been taken away. They're plugging in what they can to make it look passable, guys like Luinder Avila, Nick Lofton, Lane Thomas, Kameron Misner and Josh Rojas, and they're all very clearly replacement level. Rojas is a decent third base substitution but he's no Maikel Garcia. They have Lucas Erceg manning the ninth for Estevez and it really isn't working out. At the very least, Carter Jensen's excellent behind the plate now, Michael Massey's heating up again at 2nd and Stephen Kolek is still a pretty nice low-rotation option. But you can tell they're trying to cover up some massive holes.

I don't think the Royals are gonna sell TOO much. Wacha or Lugo could go but I don't think they both will. The big pieces are either on rookie contracts or on real long ones. Maybe an Erceg or a Schreiber gets dealt. Who knows. They will recover, they just need even more good young options than what made them a force in 2024, which sounds like a lot. But I look at Cags and it doesn't look that far away.

Coming Tonight [?]: Right when everyone was wondering if he was still an elite hitter, here he comes with his best season at the plate in years. 

A Breakout Within a Breakout

 

So. To give you an idea. Last week the story was the surprise blowup of the Washington Nationals, a full lineup effort based on outhitting you no matter who you are, and they were gaining serious traction in the NL East. Then the Phillies series happened. As good as that Nats team is, their bullpen could not withstand this Phils team, and they blew all three games in the ninth. Many times to Derek Hill. And so now...the Nats are in fourth.

...leaving the Marlins, ANOTHER surprise breakout NL East team, to take third. And...they might have something cooking here.

The Marlins are 16-5 in June, they have the best home record in baseball, and they have a lineup full of young fun contact hitters. Edwards and Lopez have ruled this season, along with Liam Hicks, but a lot of peskier seasons are coming out of the woodwork this month. Heriberto Hernandez is a simple contact bat with no real defensive help, but he's been really on target lately, hitting .274 this month with 6 homers and 11 RBIs. Joe Mack has emerged as a viable catching option in the wake of Hicks' injury and Agustin Ramirez's demotion, he's got a .723 OPS and 18 RBIs in 38 games. Unlike the last bevy of catching options in Miami, Mack looks like he could be a foundational catching piece in addition to a steady bat who can catch. After a few weak seasons in between, Esteury Ruiz has gone back into his old role with the A's, as a decent contact bat with tons of steals. He's got a .897 OPS in 74 at-bats, which I was not expecting.

The thing about this Marlins team is you'd expect cheesy power, and there is some of that...it's just not pretty. Kyle Stowers is not as good as he was last year, and he's only got 8 homers and 29 RBIs through 57 games. Owen Caissie has 9 homers and 43 RBIs, but it's not pretty, and he strikes out way too much for that low hit total. Marsee ain't doing much better. Connor Norby got sent down due to how cold he's been hitting, so now Kyle Stowers is picking up more at-bats at first, and that's...sort of working. Him and Sanoja I guess. This isn't really a home run team, which is wild considering what last year was foreshadowing, but the contact game is so good that it's keeping them in the race.

Also very happy with this bullpen. The Blue Jays like to throw around the 'team of uncommon men' thing but look at these weirdoes! Lake Bachar and his swamp aftertaste coming in and striking you out. John King having a bounce back season after flunking out of St. Louis last year. Michael Petersen, a 32-year-old up and comer from Essex with a 3.18 ERA. Anthony Bender is continuing his run as the Marlins' best relief asset this decade. Tyler Phillips is now opening games and it's still working out. Even Fairbanks is beginning to loosen up and actually nail saves. The rotation is imperfect but the bullpen is ensuring the team can win close games.

Does this Marlins team have legs? Maybe? Maybe they can spin this into a low-key playoff team. They're kinda close, and there's less general mess than usual. There's still a lot of competition in the NL Central, and they already have to contend with a strong Phils team. It can be done, but it's gonna take even more long-term work from these hitters, like Hernandez, having a great June.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up right when the team, which was a playoff competitor, was trending downward. Can he do anything to stop that??

Elias Actually Did Something

 

It feels so obvious but for a team that just doesn't take on new contracts or players very often, it seems like the revelation of the century. If you bring in a bunch of players that can help the team...they will help the team win. It may not look like much from 4th, but I am telling you that this team is way better than it was without Pete Alonso, Taylor Ward, Leody Taveras, Blaze Alexander or Shane Baz. Last year, all Mike Elias added to the Orioles were three contracts that were unloaded by July [Morton, Kittredge and Laureano] and Tyler O'Neill, who's kinda sucked here. Now we actually have talented people in their prime delivering in Baltimore. What a difference that makes.

So, let's talk about Taylor Ward. He was traded for Grayson Rodriguez. Rodriguez is once again hurt and trying to pitch through it. It's not going well. Ward, meanwhile, is doing exactly what he did in Anaheim. He's leading the O's in doubles with 18, he's hitting .257 and has 5 homers and 22 RBIs, and he's still excellent out in left. That kind of bat, even behind Rutschman, Henderson, Basallo and Cowser, is still pretty valuable and varies the brunt of the offense. I dunno if we're gonna get to where we were in 2016, wall-to-wall unbeatable no matter how far down you get, but this is already looking good, even with Alexander, Taveras and Jackson bringing up the rear.

And then there's Pete Alonso, who's overcome a slow start to continue his run as one of the most consistent power hitters in the game. He's got an .815 OPS, a .474 SLG, 55 RBIs and, yes, 18 homers, on the way to what could be another 30+ homer year [which would be #7 if it happens, in...yeah, 8 seasons]. He's got a decent chance of making 300 homers this year if he doubles his current total, and there's still room for him to continue this standard of power hitting as a Baltimore Oriole. Early on they wanted to really push this narrative of 'well is this contract gonna be a mistake for Baltimore', and...no, not really. He's still Pete Alonso. Doesn't miss a game, gives his all, hits for power like no one else even on a down year. Chris Davis isn't this guy.

The O's could use some better stuff from their established talent though. Trevor Rogers seems to be on again, and he needs to stay on. Kyle Bradish and Brandon Young have been pretty much but the full rotation still isn't all the way terrific yet, and part of that is just how okay Shane Baz has been [he's 4-8]. Zach Elfin, Cade Povich and Des Kremer have been little-to-no help due to injuries, and usual bullpen mainstays Keegan Akin and Andrew Kittredge have been struggling mightily. The preexisting core needs to supplant the new guys, so that it all might be worth it. And the Orioles have had some very nice stretches, but it's all too inconsistent this year, which is too bad.

There's still time to turn things around, and there's still enough elements working that you can't completely count them out. I'm just thankful the new moves paid off. Let that be a lesson to you, Mike. You can too build a worthy team.

Coming Tonight: The Marlins are somehow still over .500 and have one of the best home records in baseball, and this guy has certainly helped this month. 

Eldridge Horror

 

It's no secret that the Giants probably aren't a competitor this year. The tentpoles can't lift them, the back half of the rotation and the bullpen are weaker than they should be, Drew Gilbert still hasn't taken off and the top 3 NL West teams are just better. But they're not gonna go quietly. I still think the Giants are one of the most interesting bad teams in the league. It took them this long to figure out how to hit, and now that they're doing so, it's paying off wildly. 

For instance...Bryce Eldridge. 21 years old, first full year in the bigs. In 38 games, his .874 OPS is the highest on the team, higher than Casey Schmitt or Jung Hoo Lee. The guy has 6 homers and 16 RBIs, and he seems to be just getting started. He's a 6'7 slugging machine with some defensive ability but a huge contact ceiling. The hope is the Giants have found their answer to Aaron Judge after missing out on him a few years ago. So far this year he's been a refreshing power bat, and has aided Schmitt, Lee, Luis Arraez and Matt Chapman in keeping the lineup strong.

Then...it finally appears that Rafael Devers might be heating up. His WAR's out of the negatives, which is a start. Now he's got 12 home runs and 38 RBIs, which is much better. Three away from a team lead, that's palpable. I think he's just shaken off the rough 1st two months and is finally getting down to business, which is nice. I also want to point out some unsung guys, like Jonah Cox, playing a minor outfield role but bringing some contact help, as well as Victor Bericoto, who's hit 2 homers in the last 24 hours against the A's, one being a huge walkoff blast. Obviously there's some issues with this lineup, most notably a lack of a real power core [which is what happens when Devers slumps and Heliot Ramos gets hurt], but the runs can get scored in wild ways. Maybe Daniel Susac is the guy one day, maybe Eric Haase's the guy another day, maybe it's Jung Hoo Lee barreling a homer to the moon. There's variety, and that's a start. It's not just on one guy, that helps.

Getting Logan Webb back has helped the rotation, as he and Robbie Ray have been pretty sharp, and Tyler Mahle appears to be getting back to his old tricks. For some reason Landon Roupp hasn't been doing too well since pride night. He's lost his last few starts anyway, but his ERA's now over 4 somehow. Maybe that guy he was writing about on his cap had some funny way of teaching him a lesson about caring for others. But what do I know? Maybe Jeffrey Springs and his 5 ERA can give him a call and tell him to show some remorse. 

The Giants are onto a Braves series next. On paper that should be difficult because...I mean, they're the Braves, but they are in a bit of a cold spell, so it could be up to the Giants to see how things shake out. Maybe Bericoto can keep hitting home runs. It'd be weird if he went on a power tear and Baldwin didn't..

Coming Tomorrow- At the time, the fans didn't understand this trade, especially who the team was giving up. Judging that the guy they received is continuing his contact excellence from LA, I think they understand it now.

No Change Expected

 

There's an old Twilight Zone episode where a sort of cheesy western cowboy hero gets confronted by the real Jesse James for how he's portrayed on his show, and in the end works out a deal where him and his other western legends can be depicted on his show, but only if they beat the shit out of him. Like, alright, you can include Wild Bill Hicock, but only if he outshoots you and makes you look silly.

That is how I can contextualize the modern Astros. They were not penalized for cheating in the 2017 World Series, but their way of paying the piper is this atrophy. It is going around and playing all the teams they embarrassed to get titles and getting the snot beaten out of them. Obviously the Yanks had fun with them this year, but the A's, Mariners, Royals, Tigers, Dodgers, Orioles and Guardians have already notched big wins against them. They have more Tigers games this weekend, we'll see how that goes.

Honestly, in a year with off-peak Jose Altuve, an outfield of .220 hitters, a down year from Yainer Diaz, the two most crucial offseason pitching acquisitions being duds, Hunter Brown being advised to 'go easy out there', a bloated bullpen and barely any general depth....yeah, this is an expected outcome. I don't know what else to say, this is clearly a lesser team, they're trying everything but it's just not working, especially when the three top teams have actual depth.

There are two Astros lineup pieces that I would allow to see in next month's ASG rosters. Yordan Alvarez, who's close to the top vote-getting spot, and deservingly so because good lord, and Jeremy Pena. Even in limited at-bats, Pena has been excellent this year, hitting .284 with 6 homers and 18 RBIs. The production has been much higher, and Pena himself has just felt more powerful than the old 'some skinny kid starting in Correa's place' we used to see. He's got a .451 SLG this year, closer to Christian Walker and Alvarez than usual. He's mixing his usual contact with more pop, and I think it's a very good combination. 

Other than that, man...I dunno. It's really hard to get excited about a team going with Peter Lambert as a good option. I get it, he spent a year in Japan, redid his whole motion or whatnot, but...I looked at his Yakult stats, and that's a 4.26 ERA with an 11-3 record. It's helped him get back under 4, he's got a 3.28 ERA now, but...I dunno, man. Arrighetti's for real, he's in 2024 form for sure. Hunter Brown's looking decent but, again, now that's he's missed time he's still in danger of missing more. There have been better rotations, much like there have been better lineups. 

So yeah, still very much an underwhelming time in Houston. I know this team has a habit of springing to life and scaring me when I think they're cooked, but...look, even last year's version of this team was better. And they all know it I think.

Coming Tonight: The Giants are hitting a lot more than they did at the beginning of this season. This guy has certainly helped. 

Mind the Gap

 

A couple weeks ago, I wrote one of these on the Reds, essentially saying 'obviously the team could crater without Elly de la Cruz, they need to prevent that'. And barring two big wins against the Yankees, they really haven't. 

I got to watch these guys in the Bronx friday night, the one game they lost out of the series, and I saw a team that looked kinda lost. Rhett Lowder was starting, and he's more of a leverage guy than I previously figured. Not a whiffer, at least not anymore. And while his placement was overall pretty strong, on a couple of occasions he put it in the wrong spot and somebody, like Jazz Chisholm or Ben Rice, took advantage. Lowder's also one of those 'don't overthrow or out for ages' kinda guys, so it's a treacherous game to play. The lineup itself, without Elly, felt listless. They've got guys who can hit, like J.J. Bleday or Sal Stewart, but against the Yanks' pitching that night they really couldn't. The heart of that lineup is guys like Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Nate Lowe who are...fine, but...not over the top great. They had Edwin Arroyo in for Elly that night, and...yeah, very replacement level. And the bullpen contains guys like Caleb Ferguson or Zach Maxwell, a guy who throws absolute smoke and has no control over it.

And the things that are working are just kinda weird. Like they have Blake Dunn up right now, and Dunn's one of those guys that's just struggled to find success in the majors, to the point where I always confused him with Oliver Dunn, a Brewers guy who had a similar track record. But Dunn's been excellent covering for T.J. Friedl, and he's hitting .272 with 37 hits in 36 games. Far and away the best hitter in the Elly-less stretch, though Stewart had some bombs in that run too. Bleday is kinda already in this category, I wrote him off after last season and now he's a mainstay yet again. Even Andrew Abbott's having a comparatively strange season, because it started with a lot of rough starts and run bleeding....but by and large he's honestly having a fine year. 3.83 ERA, 5-4 record, 1.8 WAR. He's definitely improved over time, and the Yanks start helped. I think I'm just surprised he's not 2025-good, but it's better than getting hurt, like most Reds pitchers after a strong season. Like you can see that Lodolo and Singer are fried from what they did while healthy last year and look a little strung out. Same with Pagan honestly. So it's very nice that Abbott and Burns are holding up alright.

Still, everything you've heard from the Reds so far this week has been 'look how badly the Brewers' pitching is feasting on them'. First Woodruff has a 1-hit dominant start. Then the other Brandon, Brandon Sproat, has a 1-hit dominant start. They had Shane Drohan tonight, and to be fair he's given up a few more hits, but it is going similarly, otherwise, as I write this. So even with Elly back, that's still the narrative. The Reds are a last place team in a tough division not delivering on the promises of the 2025 season, and waterlogged by injuries and inefficiency despite two genuine starmaking performances. Occasionally you get a cool nugget, like Julian Garcia finally making it to the bigs, but right now that's all they're good for.

Then again...who knows what'll happen when Hunter Greene comes back.

Coming Tomorrow- The Astros have a lot of frayed or vacant pieces this year...but they still have Yordan Alvarez and this guy.

Dropping the Cargo

 

I don't think that 2026 is gonna be enough to completely end the Tigers' current run. I think with the youth that is still coming, and that will remain, they will still be able to compete in the next few years, and can still evolve even with this year. This has just been insanely unlucky for them. It took until now for them to find a rotation that didn't fall apart, and for Framber Valdez to stop coughing up runs. They only won six games during the entire month of May, and are in 4th, barely staying ahead of Kansas City. It's a setback year more than anything.

But...that setback is gonna cost them Tarik Skubal.

Looking ahead to the trade deadline season, I'm already predicting this is gonna be a kind of quiet one comparatively. Some of the biggest assets might be relief specialists and second string catchers and role players. People are trying to go 'will Mike Trout leave' or 'will Byron Buxton leave', and...no. Stop that. They both wanna retire with their current team, drumming this shit up again is gonna waste everyone's time. What WILL be happening, unless the Tigers get their act together in 30 days, is Tarik Skubal's gonna be headed elsewhere. It won't kill the development, as the Tigers will still have Casey Mize, and they'll get Reese Olson and Jackson Jobe back next year. Plus I feel like they've still got some big arms on the way given the farm system's recent success rate. Skubal will not ruin the team, not when they still have Mize and Valdez both doing well as of late. 

And Skubal's had a nice season, with a 3.02 ERA and 57 Ks in 9 starts. It's a little less consistent than usual, and limited thanks to an injury, but it's still peak Skubal. I can only imagine he's being shopped as we speak, and I can only imagine the usual suspects want him. The Dodgers technically don't need pitching right now, but they're greedy enough that they'd offer like Emmet Sheehan, Justin Wrobleski and Landon Knack for him, something silly like that, cause they can. The Yankees do have enough prospects to chase them but Cashman's gonna be like 'do we really NEED to trade Jasson Dominguez, the guy I only play when he's either cold or about to get injured?'. The Cardinals could come out of nowhere and nab him to make themselves competitors. The O's could do it like they were going to two years ago, and offer up all the prospects they don't have room to play. There are probably others. I don't see anyone topping the Dodgers' offer but I'd love to be surprised.

Without Skubal, the Tigers still have some life, including a strong campaign from Keider Montero filling in for Justin Verlander, see excellent stuff from Troy Melton filling in for Jack Flaherty, the usual strong standard of production from Riley Greene, dingers all over the place from Dillon Dingler [who'd have thought, right??], and that ROY-caliber campaign from Kevin McGonigle. They're just too unlucky overall to really be a match for Cleveland or Chicago. I'm not saying they're completely out of it yet, but Skubal's got his foot basically out the door a month before the deadline, so that can't be helpful.

Coming Tonight: A guy who somehow managed to hold down the Yankees this weekend [much like Framber Valdez did last night]. 

4 Real?

 

So we have graduated from 'the NL Central has 5 teams over .500 looking good' to 'the NL East has 4 teams over .500 looking good and also the Mets'. I'll take it.

The Nationals might be the most intriguing team in baseball right now because they're suddenly looking like they're for real, even if logically they're probably another year away. They don't have the pitching yet, they're still trotting Miles Mikolas out there every 5 days. But...they're outhitting virtually everyone in the division right now. I used to think it was just Abrams and Wood, but it's really not. Daylen Lile is still a really ferocious contact guy, and has 8 homers and 37 RBIs. He also has 3 triples, tied with Nasim Nunez, the league leader in stolen bases. Curtis Mead has been extremely helpful in a corner infield spot, with 11 homers and 34 RBIs. Keibert Ruiz is actually having a pretty nice run, with a .280 average, a .783 OPS and 29 RBIs. I was fearing Ruiz had hit his ceiling but he's still got some pop to work with.

And now, suddenly...and I could be wrong on this...I think Dylan Crews might be taking off finally. He's got 5 homers and 16 RBIs in 28 games. It's not pretty, and he still strikes out too much, but he's showing more life than he did before. As I'm writing this he already has another RBI against the Phillies. If they get him working, which is still kinda a long shot but still possible, that could be pretty cool. I dunno when Brady House or Robert Hassell will be fully ready but that could also be a nice aspect if this team continues to build. There's still one or two pieces that feel a bit replacement level, Jose Tena and Jorbit Vivas chief among them. But they're much closer than they were to a really intimidating roster.

And again...I've had the thought of 'what if it happens this year??' Cause they genuinely have been a match for some great teams, and have had outrageous showings against the Braves, Mariners, Padres, Orioles and Guardians. The thing about the rotation is that even if they lack a wow factor ace, a Chris Sale or Paul Skenes type, they have some efficient guys that aren't unreliable as much as they're unlucky. Zack Littell is 6-6, and has a number of really strong starts under his belt, but the rough ones just outweigh them right now. Cade Cavalli has a really strong upside but his ERA's just over 4. Andrew Alvarez is young and a bit untested but he's been pretty stable in his last few starts. Foster Griffin is the surest thing on this team, and even if he's not, like, unbeatable, the Merrill Kelly comparisons should honestly be there, because he's completely rebuilt himself and has been really steady in his first season stateside. Efficiency is just the name of the game. Brad Lord, the longman, is efficient as hell, moreso than a lot of starters. Richard Lovelady, Clayton Beeter and P.J. Poulin are just efficient, sturdy relief pieces. It just works, even if it isn't always pretty.

The Nationals, honestly like the Marlins, have enough depth and perks to really stand a chance in the wild card race if things continue at this pace. If not, the Nats will probably be competitive anyway in a year or so, so it all works out.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the best pitchers in the AL. Who knows how long he'll be staying in the AL though.

From the Insides Out

 

Well clearly you can see the problem with this Jays team. Bo gone, Tony Taters hurt, Kirk out for a month and a half, Vladdie and Springer slumping, Barger hurt, Gimenez and Sanchez cold. All the depth this team had last year and now they're throwing out Yohendrick Piñango and hoping for the best. Egad.

I think the Yanks series kinda said it all, and the Cubs series said a little more. Lightning isn't striking twice with this team, and I know how because it's June, The Month Where the Jays Get Inexplicably Hot, and they're still mid. The Yankees took 2 from the Jays, then the Cubs massacred them on Gausman's watch, to the point where even the highlight of the week, a sweep of the Red Sox, looked inadequate. Like yeah, you can sweep the Sox, anyone could do that, but you go up against a higher profile bad team like the Cubs and get rocked. Where's all the common men? Why are they playing so commonly?

Vlad Jr.'s clearly fallen off, he's only hitting .279 after a rough June and only has 4 homers and 31 RBIs this season. It's just a down year, and he does have those from time to time, but it's happening at such a rough time for this team. Without a solid leader, they need more from the secondary guys like Ernie Clement and Nathan Lukes, and that doesn't work as well. Only one guy on this team has over 10 homers [Kazuma Okamoto], and nobody has an OPS over .800, though Brandon Valenzuela is scraping up against it. It's just not a terribly interesting lineup, which is a shame because...look at what we just had! We just had 'even the bench can kick your ass'. We just had a swiss army knife of guys you've never heard of that hit .300. Now they're just guys you've never heard of AND WILL NEVER HEAR AGAIN.

It's making nice seasons from Dylan Cease and Trey Yesavage seem pedestrian. And let's not forget, the Blue Jays have a guy who's working on one of the best relief seasons in baseball, and that's 2025 trade deadline acquisition Louis Varland. Varland's having a terrific year, with an 0.86 ERA, 57 strikeouts, 15 saves and only 4 earned runs in 42 innings. It is dominance that Louie has shown since the beginning of his 2025 season with Minnesota, and he has only locked in further and further. This guy is one of the factors keeping the Jays on the side of good, along with some other bullpen compatriots [Tyler Rogers, Spencer Miles, Braydon Fisher]. But if the team doesn't hit, that can only do so much.

I still think the Jays have a shot, and they've shown slightly more consistency than Baltimore. If they can get Guerrero to start hitting again they have a chance, especially with Kirk back. I just see the flaws and the replacement level guys and I understand why they're not doing what they did last year. But hey, a lot can change in 3 months.

Coming Tonight: Well, he hasn't hit as many triples as last year so far, but he's still really dangerous at the plate. 

The Man Who Wasn't There [and Then Suddenly Was]

 

I think if you wanted to summarize 2020s pitching trends, for better or worse, you couldn't do much better than examining the career of Eduardo Rodriguez. He's been in the league since 2015, and has had some terrific seasons under his belt, including one that resulted in a World Series ring for Boston. This year he's having another nice year, with a 6-2 record and a 2.45 ERA in 15 starts. But something that's always been true with Rodriguez is that once he gives you a grade-a full season...the next year's probably a wash.

And that's the issue with pitching right now, the hard-throwing, all-or-nothing stuff is not sustainable, and ensures some guys are only good every other year. In many cases it means injuries every so often. In Rodriguez's case, the injuries are rare but the stinky in-between years of partial health despite making all the starts are there in their place. Last year for instance, Rodriguez had a 5.02 ERA despite making 29 starts and getting 154 innings. 2022, right when he signed the Tigers deal, was another off, slightly injured year that even included that bit where Rodriguez went MIA midyear. Rodriguez won 19 games in 2019, then missed all of 2020, came back and won 13, then went on his rampage in Detroit. The way he pitches, despite the highs, cannot sustain consistent, consecutive success. 

It's even more evident when Rodriguez is succeeding in the year that Gallen, Kelly, Pfaadt and Nelson are all wiped out because they've been on since 2022. So, those guys are either slumping or hurt, Rodriguez is handling the big games, Mike Soroka is too but...he's not throwing sustainably either, and after a terrific start, HE'S gonna be missing time. And remember, Corbin Burnes is already out this half, and might not even be back til late July. So now the goal is to try and find people who aren't too overexerted to pitch...and not overexert them by making them pitch. 

It wasn't like this in 1978, and I wasn't even alive then.

So I guess the pitching thing is gonna make it harder for the D-Backs to catch LA, because this sort of thing never happens to the Dodgers in a way that wrecks their chances. A shame, cause Carroll, Marte, Moreno, Perdomo and Arenado are all having great years. The bench is becoming a bit worrying though, and the young guys that should be providing depth really aren't. Ryan Waldschmidt and Jose Fernandez didn't have MLB staying power, Lawlar seems to be hurt yet again, Tommy Troy is more unassuming than anything and LuJames Groover hasn't done anything yet. It's half a team, and they're hitting more than the Padres, but without Soroka, and with Kelly and Gallen still struggling, I'm not sure how much longer they'll stay in second. 

I think this is just an unlucky team. They honestly were one Eduardo Rodriguez from squeezing into a wild card spot the last few years. Hopefully he doesn't go down again the next time they need him.

Coming Tonight: One of the most effective relief pitchers in baseball not named Mason Miller.

Our Own Supply

 

Going into this season, my greatest hope was that the Athletics would develop their own starting pitching assets. Because they're tried two different tactics that completely avoid those, and they didn't work. They first tried calling up other people's pitching prospects, and tried getting by with J.P. Sears, James Kaprielian, Ken Waldichuk, Frankie Montas and that ilk. This was not successful. So last year they started over and tried the other tactic, signing decent talent to pitch the big games and farming people under that. This hasn't worked either. Jeffrey Springs has been getting lit up all June for some reason [smirk], Severino strikes people out but can't keep runs down, Civale's a short term solution and the underneath guys from last season haven't made much of an impact. And again, I get why the A's have been so ashamed to bring up their own guys, because a lot of these guys haven't been turning out great in the majors. Joe Boyle was a misfire that's now struggling to stay healthy in Tampa. Joey Estes is very inconsistent. Brady Basso's been really ineffective. Even Luis Morales has struggled this year.

However...hope has arisen. There are two guys in this rotation who are homegrown [or at least were developed by the A's in some way], and they're the most integral starters right now. Finally. 

J.T. Ginn has been on the brink of legitimacy for a few years now, and I think he's finally breaking through. He was fine in a 2024 callup, struggled a bit last year despite some nice late starts, and now he's got a 2.91 ERA with a 1.164 WHIP, 68 Ks and a 2.7 WAR. He went from a rotation also-ran to the one sure bet for a while, and even at 27 he's showing some serious presence in this rotation. Also promising is recent draft pick Gage Jump, who's got a 2.37 ERA, 26 Ks and a 0.989 WHIP in his first five starts. Dude's 23 years old and clicking into place more than Springs, the veteran. This team also has Kade Morris back in the minors, and though he got killed his first start up he's still got a high ceiling. At some point, Henry Baez will be ready, and that will make things very interesting. 

It proves how much further the A's have come even in a year, and how close they are to really being a match in the AL.

Despite a rough week or so, the A's are at .500 and still in 2nd place, and have the offense to stay afloat for a while thanks to Nick Kurtz, Shea Langeliers, Tyler Soderstrom and Zach Gelof. In addition, some new elements have been added, and are aiding this team tremendously. Henry Bolte is playing CF everyday and hitting .317 with 34 hits in 33 games, becoming the kind of fixture I figured Colby Thomas would be this year. Jonah Heim has been a really strong backup catcher in his return to the A's, with 5 homers and 8 RBIs in 21 games [and I know what you're thinking- Heim and a guy named Bolt? What is this, 2019??]. Jacob Wilson is healthy and back to his old contact tricks. And Alika Williams is doing more as a utility infielder here than he did in Pittsburgh for some reason. It's really cool how all of this is coming together.

Unfortunately, because of the pitching, it's not .500+ baseball right now, but it definitely could be, especially if Nick Kurtz keeps at it. I dunno if people are making Ryan Howard comparisons yet, but they absolutely should be.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy that's pitched five terrific seasons. Unfortunately only two of them have been consecutive.  

Under-Armer

 

The good news is that Dustin May narrowly avoids an ironic punchline involving his name. His ERA in the month of May, over his whole career, is lower than any other months, at 3.65. Now, granted, he's only started 14 games in May in 7 years cause he's always hurt, but it's nice that it's not 'his name's May but he gets lit up every May'. Which is nice cause until last year, the joke was 'his name's May but he gets hurt midway through April'. Thankfully he's been healthier since 2025. I remember when we were calling him Gingergaard, cause he was a Noah Syndergaard-esque hard thrower with curly red hair, but now Syndergaard's moved onto a career in shit-stirring, so now May can actually stay healthy. 

This has the potential to be May's fullest, surest season since the pandemic-shortened 2020, and it's with a Cardinals team that is teetering on the brink of being good, which is weird to say about a team that's in 2nd place and 6 games over .500. For a while May, to me, was one of the signs that the team wasn't all the way there yet, as he was getting starts every 5 games and not really doing anything to warrant the job. Then he pitches a 1-hit complete game shutout against the Padres and it becomes clear he's gotten his stuff together. His last four or so starts have been pretty good, the Ks are flying as fast as they were in his peak in LA. Right now he's got a 3.75 ERA, 75 Ks and a 5-6 record, it reflects some early struggles but it's better than what caused LA to trade him in the first place last year. 

It's the Cardinals' rotation that still continues to confuse me, because they're rolling with McGreevy, May, Pallante, Liberatore and Leahy, and until recently they were all kinda getting by without doing anything over the top. Placefiller starters really. McGreevy has a 2.99 ERA but only 51 Ks and a 3-5 record, meaning he's very much at the mercy of the run support, and because Wetherholt, Herrera, Walker and Burleson have been pretty hot recently it hasn't been much of a problem. But...McGreevy being an ace while just being a serviceable leverage guy is...I dunno, man. The Guardians can pull it off cause they have Gavin Williams behind Messick. The Cards have Pallante and May positioned behind McGreevy where...and I'm sorry, but all three would be a 5th man on a better team. I'm sorry. I know they're making it work now and it's fine, but...I just don't see a guy who can serviceably nail a Game 1 of a playoff series. The 2019 team had Jack Flaherty at least. I don't know if McGreevy is there yet. Or if May is that guy all the way through a season.

I'm not disputing this team's ability to hit, though, as it's gotten them way over .500. Jordan Walker leads the league in RBIs with 57, and Alec Burleson's not far behind. Wetherholt's still looking like a major player in the ROY race. Nathan Church is real nifty as an outfield bat. Blaze Jordan seems to be the answer at third, and it takes the sting out of Nolan Gorman not being the answer there [get ready to learn St. Petersburg-ish, my dude]. And Nootbaar's healthy and heating up. 

There's a chance the Cardinals hear all this and make a major deal for a starter. I don't know if they can swing Skubal but they're exactly the kind of team that could surprise everybody for him. Or even a deal for Sandy Alcantara or something. Either somebody becomes the ace or they trade for one, and then they're there pretty much.

Coming Tonight: Arguably another team that doesn't really have an ace, and their closest equivalent. 

Kody-Pendent

 

There's gonna be a lot of talk in 20 years about how the 2020s were defined by second generation players, not just Vlad Jr. and Tatis and Bo and the Hollidays either. You still have guys whose dads had a cup of coffee [or at most a couple donuts in October] in the bigs, like Cody Bellinger, Ronald Acuna Jr., and eventually Eli Willits. 

Ironically, I remember pulling a Reggie Willits card out of 2007 Update. Around when I was looking for that elusive Roger Clemens Yankees card. 

Anyway, the point I was making was that this decade's been inundated with second generation guys who have dictated the direction of the game, and that's really cool. Which is why I wonder how the second-generation guys who were mid-to-low tier will be remembered. There have been guys like Daz Cameron, Cavan Biggio, Nick Gordon and Darren Baker who've tried to find success on name brand recognition alone and haven't gotten as far. Or someone like Ryan Weathers or Hunter Harvey, both of whom have found success but have struggled to sustain it due to injuries. 

I'm actually really intrigued by how Kody Clemens will be remembered, as he might be one of the strangest second-generationers in the league right now. His dad, obviously, is Roger Clemens, pitching icon and mildly controversial MLB figure. Kody made the bigs as a utility infielder, and isn't a pitcher, though the Tigers and Phillies did used to throw him out there as a last-chance mound option and he honestly didn't do too badly. 

With the Twins, Kody Clemens has become essentially a replacement level standout, providing excellent support and good production without being a bankable long term option. Right now he's hitting .250 with 11 homers and 28 RBIs, he's actually above average as a first baseman, and he sort of does his job. On a team like the Twins, where so many long term options are utterly refusing to do their jobs, Kody Clemens being a useful, important piece says a lot. Like, honestly I feel like this is the kind of team Clemens was made for? With the Phils he was useful, but I don't think he was asked for as much as a bench bat as he is here as a starter. I'm not sure if he works as much on a good team, and I know that's weird to say. Especially compared to Byron Buxton, who would be a terrific outfielder and hitter on any team but prefers to stay in Minneapolis because he loves the fanbase and the team. Clemens I think wants bigger things, and will possibly even be traded, but he needs a team like the Twins about as much as they need him. And comparing that to Roger Clemens's presence on any team he was ever on is wild. Roger Clemens made teams; Kody Clemens' teams make Kody Clemens. It's not bad, it's just different.

Barring Clemens and Buxton, still not a hell of a lot going on with this Twins team. They are, however, in third, and ahead of the Tigers for the time being, so they've gotta be doing something right.

Coming Tomorrow- One complete game shutout later and he's not looking like such a bad investment I guess..