Tuesday, December 31, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Yankees

Well, after years of thinking the current MLB model would never let it happen again, in 2024 the Yankees made a World Series. The path there was smooth enough that it surprised me. We had little to no trouble with the Royals, and though the Guardians fought hard we had their number in the end. This was a team with insane offensive power, a great rotation, a great bullpen and so many little things clicking into place that had always evaded us. The power duo of Juan Soto and Aaron Judge, as well as the insane October abilities of Giancarlo Stanton, made the first two playoff series' insanely fun to watch.

And then we showed up to meet the Dodgers and it really wasn't gonna be close.

No matter how hard we fought, and no matter what we threw at LA, the Freeman-Betts-Ohtani trio was on and hot, and Aaron Judge had cooled down significantly. The Freeman walk-off sealed our fate, but the errors in Game 5 and the eventual comeback just slapped us out the door. Soto joining the Mets was the cruel punchline. We got what we wanted, but it couldn't last.

Will we get back there in 2025? The team certainly seems to want to. We've got Max Fried in between Cole and Rodon, Devin Williams in the ninth, Bellinger in the lineup, and probably some more reinforcements on the way. It could definitely happen, but only if we learn from 2024 and not repeat it more embarrassingly. 

Oswaldo Cabrera began the season as the surprise standout of the Yankees' lineup. The usual suspects were surging, guys like Judge and Soto and Verdugo, but Cabrera was really effective. He did eventually cool down, but Ozzie was a really nice extra piece this year, ending with 8 homers and 36 RBIs despite a .247 average. I think he had less to do once Chisholm came aboard, but he still had a nice postseason double.
2025 Prediction: Even if Cashman keeps working, I reckon there will still be an infield vacancy, and I reckon it's for Ozzie to take. He'll have another strong year, and he'll be even better at the plate. 

Trent Grisham was an extra OF piece included in the Soto deal, and I'm just gonna say it, it's weird that he's lasting longer in the Bronx than Soto did. The thing with Grisham is his defense, and he was a tremendous defensive upgrade for us when utilized. His power bat also gave us 9 homers and 30 RBIs, but with a .190 average, which is the risk you run with Grisham.
2025 Prediction: Will get a bit more starting time, and be a bit more on target at the plate.

Jon Berti was a very late offseason trade, when it became clear we'd be a little wounded in the infield. Berti's known for his solid 3B play as well as his speed on the base paths. Unfortunately Berti only played in 25 regular season games for us, but hit .273 with 18 hits, 6 RBIs, a homer and 5 steals. He also had 2 postseason hits.
2025 Prediction: So much for that. Berti will find a backup role somewhere.

The Yankees' bullpen, from almost the beginning of the season, proved virtually unhittable, and despite some missed time, Ian Hamilton was one of the main reasons behind that. Since coming over, Hamilton has become one of our best bullpen arms, and this year he was equally dominant, with a 3.82 ERA in 35 appearances. He was also great during the postseason, with 3 Ks despite giving up an earned run.
2025 Prediction: Gears back up for a full season of work, impresses. With Holmes gone there'll be room for him to come into his own more.

Additionally, perennial Yankee favorite Tommy Kahnle continued his third stint with the team this year and gave us another strong campaign. In 50 games, Kahnle had a 2.11 ERA, 46 Ks and a 0.8 WAR. In the postseason he had a 2.08 ERA with 7 Ks in 9 appearances. I'm very thankful that Kahnle's always been excellent with us, no matter what incarnation of the team he's a part of.
2025 Prediction: I wanna believe we re-sign him, but something tells me the Phillies or somebody like that will make a move.

The Yankees operated an essential six man rotation this year, made possible by Luis Gil covering for Gerrit Cole and, later, Clarke Schmidt. Yet on one or two occasions the rotation needed a seventh man, either for doubleheaders or for fill-ins for somebody missing a start. That doesn't usually speak to a high quality, and the second half seventh man, Will Warren, got his ass handed to him on a regular basis til Schmidt came back. But during the first half, we turned to former Marlins prospect and frequent IL resident Cody Poteet, who was lighting 'em up in Scranton. Poteet only got 5 appearances this year, thanks to both overflow and more injuries, and he was excellent. He had a 3-0 record, a 2.22 ERA, 16 Ks and a 1.068 WHIP. The true unsung hero of this team, and the reason why we didn't completely crumble under some rotation injuries.
2025 Prediction: The Cubs had to have liked Poteet to trade for him over a prospect. I say he makes the Opening Day rotation [thanks a lot Hayden Wesneski for leaving a spot open] and has a surprise full year as a rotation favorite. 


Jasson Dominguez's Yankee career continues to vex me. He was injured for half the season, then once he got healthy he was absolutely ripping it up in Triple-A, all while Alex Verdugo struggled. In response to cries to activate him, Aaron Boone brought Dominguez up for one game, the Little League Classic, where he was listless in one at-bat, as if to say 'see?', and sent him back down. He got 17 more games at the end of the year, where he hit .179 with 4 RBIs and 2 homers, then was used as a roster option during the postseason but didn't make any plate appearances. Boone is giving this guy what I refer to as 'the Paul Reed treatment', where literally everybody knows he should be getting games in the bigs, but the people who are in position to play are the correct people to be in that position, even if, like Alex Verdugo did in August, they suck shit. If Soto stuck around there was gonna be more of this. But next year there's at least one OF spot open, and Dominguez is being primed for it.
2025 Prediction: You're not ready. None of you are ready. Once this guy gets his mojo, and I doubt it'll take him very long in 2025, we're not gonna be missing Soto for much longer.

So that was 2024. Very wild year. Never would have thought the baseball events of the year would go like this. I didn't collect a great deal this year, and I hope to collect more next year. I have been doing more trades on TCDB, so that's filled a void, but I hope some more permanent employment will allow me to pursue card-collecting like I used to. 

I'll probably post sporadically in January and February, and then around Spring Training we'll start this madness up again. Hopefully it's a little less heartbreaking for the guys in pinstripes. 

Monday, December 30, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: White Sox

 

I only have two of these for the White Sox. Just two. Literally everyone else that was worthy of being talked about was done during the season. And, like, others as well. I made a Chris Flexen custom during the season. He went 3-15. Usually that's grounds for, like, not making a custom but I didn't have many options. 

The Chicago White Sox lost 121 games this year, and had one of the worst finishes by a team in years. Even if there were good players on this team, like Luis Robert, Garrett Crochet and Erick Fedde, so many people were either inexperienced, past their peak or just pure replacement level. The management wanted to throw in the towel, and so they did in one of the most depressing ways possible. The fanbase was infuriated, the players were crushed, and the MLB world was astonished. 2025 will be a step above only if you see at least some signs of life, which you could barely see in 2024.

Yoan Moncada, who was brought in as the future star in exchange for Chris Sale, had his final contracted season in Chicago this year. Since 2022 he's been missing more and more games, and this year he only appeared in 12. Yes, he hit .275 with 11 hits [despite no RBIs], but all that production squeezed into such a small sample size felt like such a slap in the face. Moncada will be 30 next year, and will be suiting up for another team.
2025 Prediction: Whoever signs him is gonna get his most appearances since 2021, and his best plate numbers. 

Andrew Benintendi was disappointing in his first season for the Sox, and his second year, of five for the record, wasn't much better. To his credit, the veteran slugger did lead the team in home runs. It was with only 20, though. In 135 games, Benintendi hit .229 with 64 RBIs and 109 hits. Despite some late swells and some big days, it was nowhere near the consistency of his Sox or Royals numbers.
2025 Prediction: Somebody needs to step up, and I reckon it might actually be him. This will be something close to a good year from him.

Coming Tomorrow- Members of the Yankee crew that did the unthinkable...and then the unexplainable. 

Sunday, December 29, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Twins

I think it's as simple as this. The Minnesota Twins had the team this year. They were on track to make the playoffs with a month and a half left to go in the season. If Correa, Buxton, Kepler, Miranda, Lewis and Ryan stay healthy, they get there. Those six players are the heart of this team, and even in partial seasons accomplished so much. But for large swaths of the season, the majority of this group was hurt. Miranda and Lewis came back, Buxton and Correa would try and jump back in, but it was enough of a gap that the Royals and Tigers caught up and reduced them to fourth, just a year after finishing in 1st and winning a playoff series.

The injuries in Arlington and Atlanta may have gotten more publicity, but the injuries in Minneapolis turned a wild card favorite into a surprise onlooker. And it's very funny that Rocco Baldelli is showing the same 'never the same quality in consecutive seasons' tactic he had as a player. 

Trevor Larnach, barring the first couple weeks of the year, was a rare Twin that stayed healthy this year, and provided needed power assistance as the go-to DH this year. In 112 games, Larnach hit .259 with 52 RBIs and 15 home runs, and had a .771 OPS. Larnach has become a pretty reliable member of the young pack of hitters, and this year was another nice leveling up at the plate.
2025 Prediction: Another step further, hitting .276 with 25+ homers.

Because the Rays wait until the exact moment you're not expecting them to move you to move you, Manuel Margot was dealt to the Dodgers at the very beginning of the offseason [in the Tyler Glasgow deal], then moved over to Minnesota right at the end of camp. Margot had a chance to win a ring this year, but fate had other ideas. And so, Margot, now in a crucial OF role with the Twins, had his weakest season to date. In 129 games, Margot hit .238 with 31 RBIs and only 4 stolen bases. Three season after his defensive peak with Tampa, Margot was below average defensively and struggled at the plate. For the first time in his career, Margot will be facing free agency this year.
2025 Prediction: I honestly think the Rays'll bring him back. And he'll do better.

 

Kyle Farmer had his best statistical season to date last year, thanks to some excellent defense and strong contact numbers. This season, with an injury to recover from and other infield options getting play, Farmer's appeal was significantly lessened. In 107 games he hit .214 with 25 RBIs and 5 homers. Both defensively and offensively he was below average this year. 
2025 Prediction: Has something of a rebound year with Denver, though I doubt he'll be starting all year. Then again, if they trade McMahon he certainly might..

Matt Wallner was ushered into the young hitting group last year, as he took advantage of a late call-up and became one of the most refreshing hitters in the lineup. This year was very similar: he wasn't with the team initially, but once he got there he was a very helpful fill-in and helped the OF depth tremendously. In 75 games he had 37 RBIs and 13 home runs. And an .894 OPS, which is pretty fantastic.
2025 Prediction: Kepler's likely gone, Margot's gone, Larnach's primarily a DH...I think Matt Wallner's got a starting OF spot next year, and I think he's gonna be a serious ASG candidate. 

Chris Paddack came over in a trade in 2022, and considering that the Padres received Brent Rooker and Taylor Rogers in the trade, it's kinda wild that Paddack's lasted longer. Ultimately, 2024 was the Sheriff's most prolific year in Minneapolis, though still injury-shortened. In 17 games he went 5-3 with a 4.99 ERA and 79 Ks. At least a little closer to his 2019 breakthrough. 
2025 Prediction: Well, it's his last year before free agency, so watch him go absolutely wild out there.

Not only was Griffin Jax the Twins' best reliever of the season, he was one of their best players period. In 72 appearances, Jax had a 2.03 ERA, 95 Ks, a 2.8 WAR and 10 saves. Jax had a higher WAR than Pablo Lopez this year, which I would not have called. For a guy who didn't work as a starter in Minneapolis, I'm glad he's found a real niche for these guys.
2025 Prediction: I don't think the follow up will be as prolific but he'll have some great relief appearances. Perhaps less of them.

It was handy to have a consistent guy like Griffin Jax around because the closing option, Jhoan Duran, was less consistent this year. He finished the season with a  6-9 record, a ton of blown saves and only 23 saves. Duran can still throw as hard, but I think he just wasn't as unhittable as he's been in prior years.
2025 Prediction: Either he rights himself and becomes a great closer again or he blows his arm out and misses time.

Austin Martin was the other piece of the return for Jose Berrios, aside from Simeon Woods-Richardson, who was very useful this year. Martin got plugged into numerous roles this year, as he plays both the outfield and some infield positions. Unfortunately he doesn't play them very well. His very unpolished defense at least distracted from his passable offense, but while he hit .253, he only had 16 RBIs and 1 homer in 93 games. 
2025 Prediction: Honestly, I think he gets cut at some point.

So, Carlos Correa got hurt, then Royce Lewis got hurt, and there was a vacancy at short. So...in comes Brooks Lee, the Twins' top infield prospect, to get a taste of the majors. Unfortunately the 23 year old couldn't get much done at the MLB level, hitting .221 with 3 homers and 27 RBIs in 50 games. With both those guys back in 2025, I'm not sure what kind of role Lee will play with this team.
2025 Prediction: If the Twins get good enough that they need to make a big deadline deal, Lee will be the top piece going to a competitor. And THERE he'll blossom into something.

Towards the end of the year, the Twins called up two pretty well-regarded pitching prospects to start some games. Paddack and Ryan were hurt, there was room, let's get the kids up. Zebby Matthews had a really rough go of it, but David Festa, who was around for 14 games, did decently, with a 4.90 ERA and 77 Ks.
2025 Prediction: Will make camp with the team, but he's gonna have to be used in long-relief for a bit.

Coming Tomorrow- Mercifully, not very many White Sox. 

Saturday, December 28, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Tigers

 

On June 29th, the Detroit Tigers were 37-46, fourth place in the AL Central, completely out of the conversation. Within a month they would trade Jack Flaherty, Andrew Chafin, Carson Kelly and Mark Canha to competitors. Of the four, only one would make the playoffs, and would ultimately win a World Series. 

After getting somewhat hot before the ASG break, the Tigers were 52-59 on August 2nd. And then the inevitable happened. Not only did this team start winning, but this team outlasted all but one division rival in playoff competition. The Tigers lapped the Twins and kept the series tighter than the Royals did. The Guardians would ultimately end the Tigers' season, but they would do so a month and a half later than anyone thought. With some rookie reinforcements, a Cy Young candidate, a stellar bullpen and some seasons that got going at the exact right time, the Detroit Tigers were competitors for the first time in about a decade, and they finally had something they could build on.

It's important to note that this ALDS-qualifying season from the Tigers came with no help from former MVP Candidate Javier Baez, who once again seemed to want nothing more than to take the contract and run. In 80 injury-limited games, Baez hit .184 with 6 homers and 37 RBIs. It's becoming so much clearer how Baez's 2018-2019 run was his peak, and how he's failed to recapture any of the magic from it.
2025 Prediction: Something closer to his 2022 premier year with the Tigers, but nothing team-lifting.

Also only a minor figure in the story of this competitive Tigers team, former #1 overall pick Casey Mize. Mize has long been thought to be the savior of this organization, and was on pace to be an ace for them til his 2022 injury. 2024 was thought to be a comeback year for the 27-year-old, but Mize could only muster so much, appearing in 22 games and leaving with a 4.49 ERA, a 2-6 record and 78 Ks.
2025 Prediction: I think since the pressure is officially off of him, and on people like Tarik Skubal, he'll be able to deliver a better season. Unfortunately I think 2024 killed any chance of him being THE GUY for the Tigers going forward. 

Jason Foley has remained a primary choice for closing options for the Tigers, and because this bullpen is so good he's just a great all-around reliever who occasionally can get the big game saves. Foley notched 28 saves this year, and had a 3.15 ERA despite a 3-6 record. Obviously a bit shakier [hence more opportunities for Tyler Holton later on], but I think Foley's still well respected in this 'pen.
2025 Prediction: Doesn't hold the ninth all year but still has another excellent full season of relief work.

Zach McKinstry didn't have as many starry moments as his surprise spike in usage during 2023, but he remained a handy, versatile infield bat for these guys. McKinstry hit .215 in 118 games, with 4 homers, 23 RBIs and a team-leading 16 steals. He even had himself a big postseason home run this year.
2025 Prediction: I think Colt Keith and Trey Sweeney are gonna ensure he doesn't start, but he'll be a valuable utility piece for the Tigers.

Wenceel Perez used some outfield vacancies and some brief injuries to work his way into a starting outfield spot as a rookie, and it honestly went pretty well for him. In 112 games he hit .242 with 9 home runs and 37 RBIs. He was also very handy in the postseason, with 5 hits and an RBI. 
2025 Prediction: Starts in right and becomes the underrated third to Meadows and Greene in that outfield.

Similarly, rookie Justyn-Henry Malloy got some starting time at both OF and DH this year, and he made the most of the opportunity. Malloy came over from Atlanta in exchange for Joe Jimenez, and while Jimenez has been excellent with the Braves, the Tigers may have something with Malloy as a power bat. In 71 games, Malloy had 8 homers and 21 RBIs, and was starting at DH everyday pretty much by the end of the year. He also went 5 for 8 in postseason at-bats with a double and run.
2025 Prediction: 30 homers. The pieces are beginning to come together, people.

Another intriguing piece of this team's future that debuted this year? Starter Keider Montero, who took advantage of the many open rotation spots during the last two months to make 16 starts. He'd finish the season with a 4.76 ERA, 6 wins and 77 Ks. He's 23, sturdy, came just short of 100 innings as a rookie, and looks like a great building block for this team.
2025 Prediction: Makes the rotation out of camp and holds down a 3.50 ERA all year.

And very late in the season, the Tigers brought up two different organizational prospect pieces, and even got to use them in October. Jackson Jobe was picked 3rd overall back in 2021, and smoked through Erie in 2024 to wind up in the bigs by September. He was merely there as a depth pitching option, and was scoreless in 4 innings during the regular season. In the postseason, the 21-year-old was facing some of the most powerful hitters in the bigs, and gave up 3 runs in 1.2 innings. Welcome to the bigs, kid. Meanwhile, 3rd base prospect Jace Jung, brother of Texas' corner infielder Josh Jung, was a 2022 first-rounder that was also powering through the minors at a nice pace. Jung was brought up around Trey Sweeney's call-up, and Sweeney was a bit more MLB-ready. Jung hit .241 in 34 games with 19 hits and 3 RBIs, and was hitless in 2 postseason at-bats.
2025 Prediction: At the current moment there seems to be more space for Jobe than for Jung. Jobe could very easily hang out in the bullpen and wait for a rotation opening to emerge [assuming he doesn't make the rotation out of camp]. Jung, meanwhile, is blocked by both Trey Sweeney and Zach McKinstry depth-wise, and will need surer MLB stats to stand a chance, which may not happen til midyear next year.

Coming Tomorrow- The Twins definitely thought they had something this year, which made it all the more heartbreaking when the rug got swept out from beneath them. 

Friday, December 27, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Royals

 

2024 was the year that, after several seasons of threatening to, the Kansas City Royals put together an intimidating, varied playoff-caliber team that chased off the Twins and made it to a tough, breakneck ALDS against the Yankees. They didn't win, and the Yanks didn't have too much trouble with them, but now that Bobby Witt, Cole Ragans, Lucas Erceg and Seth Lugo have gotten a taste of the postseason with this team, they're gonna want even more. And with the shifting of tides in this division, it is attainable.

M.J. Melendez, for a few years, has been a defensive liability for the Royals, both at catcher and in the outfield. But now, with a permanent outfield role, Melendez may have had his best season to date in the field. Yes, he had a -7 defensive WAR figure, but that's a step up from the norm. Melendez's plate numbers actually took a dive this year, as he only hit .206 with 44 RBIs and 17 homers. In the postseason, though, he was responsible for 2 RBIs and a crucial home run.
2025 Prediction: Between Kyle Isbel, Joey Wiemer, and arguably Dairon Blanco and Jonathan India, the Royals will have more above-average defensive options next year. I think they'll DH Melendez a lot, and his value will go up.

Prior to the season, the Royals invested in some replacement level veterans, who provided stability til the potential for homegrown players, or, more accurately, the addition of above-replacement-level veterans late in the season. Hunter Renfroe, in his sixth team since leaving the Padres, was excessively mediocre in Kansas City, hitting .229 with 52 RBIs and 15 home runs in 120 games, with no luck in the postseason either. 
2025 Prediction: The slightest improvement but I don't think he'll be starting for whoever signs him.

Similarly, the Royals got Adam Frazier to act as a placeholder infielder til Michael Massey was trusted again. The Orioles used Frazier this way last year til they were more confident in Gunnar Henderson. 2024 went similarly for Frazier, as he hit .202 with 22 RBIs and 4 homers in 104 games, while also providing decent defense at 2nd and in the outfield.
2025 Prediction: Yeah I think at this point Frazier's a career replacement-level depth infielder, so let's see...who isn't sure about the strength of their middle-infielder rookie? The Mets with Mauricio? The Tigers? If not the Guardians get 'im.

Dairon Blanco was the Royals' designated depth outfielder this year, brought in to pinch run and also sub in defensively. In 88 games, Blanco stole 31 bases [as many as Bobby Witt], and hit .258 with 13 RBIs and 4 homers. Blanco is a very handy guy to have around, and his speed will ensure he continues to be a part of these teams.
2025 Prediction: He starts a bit more and puts together a fuller all-around season.

The Royals were truly excellent at midyear pickups, not only having a terrific deadline but using the waiver deals and free agency to keep the team fresh. Michael Lorenzen was a key trade deadline deal, coming over from the Rangers after a strong start. Lorenzen, like in Philly last year, missed a few starts due to injuries, but was sharp when healthy, with a 1.57 ERA, 22 Ks and a 1.2 WAR in 7 starts. He also struck out 3 in the postseason, though he did walk away with a loss.
2025 Prediction: I think he stays in one place all next year, and he stays healthy. A competitor gets him as a low rotation piece and he gives them a really nice year.

And then, in addition to signing Tommy Pham and Robbie Grossman, the Royals took a flyer on 40-year-old Yuli Gurriel, who hadn't played yet in 2024, as a replacement for the hurt Vinnie Pasquantino. Gurriel was above-average at 1st, and hit .241 with with 6 RBIs in 18 games. He also had 4 postseason hits, continuing his excellent October production.
2025 Prediction: I would assume he retires but something tells me he still wants to play. And a minor league deal did well enough for him last year, even if the Braves never brought him up.

Coming Tomorrow- The Detroit Tigers were counted out midway through the season. Then, inexplicably, they beat the Astros in a playoff series. 

Thursday, December 26, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Rockies

 


From May 9th until May 15th, the Colorado Rockies had an impressive seven-game winning streak. During this weeklong period, they scored nine runs against the San Francisco Giants, then swept the Texas Rangers by scoring 15 runs against them, and then swept the San Diego Padres with 19 runs scored against them. 

Those 7 wins make up 11% of the wins the Colorado Rockies had in 2024. And those 19 runs make up 3% of the runs scored by the Colorado Rockies this season. 

What else can one say but 'oof'?

The Rockies were the sole NL West team to not compete in 2024, and thus their 100 loss status came as a shock to no one. While they are slowly building something, and with both Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle having great seasons they're closer than they were previously, a lot of this season was a wash because of the number of below-average, replacement and inexperienced performers that still populated the team. Many players were great for a two month stretch and unhelpful otherwise. Both Marquez and Senzatela made brief appearances but were of no overall help.

And speaking of being no help, former NL MVP Kris Bryant, three years into a long and fruitful deal with the Rockies, had yet another disappointing, limited season. In 37 games, he hit .218 with 2 home runs and 15 RBIs, what the hell can anyone say about that? D'you think Rendon, Bryant, Baez and Strasburg all go out for drinks?
2025 Prediction: Bryant will be 33 and probably healthier than ever. I say his numbers improve and he actually plays a decent role in this team. Maybe it's wishful thinking but I'd love for something to happen.

This sums up the Rockies' season perfectly for me: Ryan Feltner was one of the Rockies' most utilized starters this year, appearing in 30 games, and pitching in 162 innings. He went 3-10 with a 4.50 ERA and a team-leading 138 strikeouts. This was Feltner's best season to date. Something I do want to point out that's always tickled me is his ERA against the Phillies is 6.75, higher than his ERA against division rivals the Padres, Dodgers, Diamondbacks and Giants. The Phils have a way of completely annihilating this guy, as I saw a couple years ago in a start he had against us at CBP. 
2025 Prediction: An improvement. A 4 ERA against the rest of the league and a 10 ERA if he pitches in Philly.
Speaking of Philadelphia, Jake Cave, a crucial bench bat for the 2023 Phils, was cut at the end of Spring Training and quickly brought over to the Rockies, who could use an extra OF bat. Cave's big claim to fame might be that the Yankees traded him to the Twins for a young fireballer named Luis Gil. In Colorado, Cave had his highest RBI total since his rookie year, with 37, along with 7 homers and a .251 average. He wasn't terribly useful otherwise, he was a pretty standard replacement guy for this team, but I think the fans enjoyed having him around.
2025 Prediction: Does something moderately amusing in the Korean Leagues.
Sam Hilliard came up with the Rockies as an extra outfielder, spent a season with the Braves as a pretty nice bench bat, then came back to Colorado. In 58 games, Hilliard hit .239 with 10 home runs and 27 RBIs. He was also a slight upgrade in the outfield from Jones and Cave.
2025 Prediction: Does a lot during the first half but is phased out a bit once the Rockies actually answer some questions at key OF positions.

And finally, longtime catching prospect Drew Romo made his long awaited debut in August, and hoped to be a trusted answer to the team's future catching questions. It was also a big deal that Romo's promotion came in the wake of the Rockies releasing longtime catcher Elias Diaz. Romo's early numbers didn't do a ton to justify that, as he hit .176 with 6 RBIs in 16 games. Defensively, though, Romo seems to be exactly as advertised.
2025 Prediction: It's not gonna be immediate success, as Tovar was, but slowly Romo's gonna get more and more playing time, and by the end of the season he'll be an integral part of the lineup.

Coming Tomorrow- I thought I'd have more Royals left, but I really did knock out a lot of them during the season. Still, quite a few to show for their first competitive playoff year in about a decade.

Tuesday, December 24, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Reds

 


The theme of this season for the Cincinnati Reds was trailing off. This team had two major awards candidates in Elly de la Cruz and Hunter Greene, both of whom had immense cases that dulled as the season went on. Greene, as he tends to, got hurt for a month or so despite having his best season to date, while de la Cruz simply cooled off despite leading the league in stolen bases. And as such, the Reds, despite some spikes in productivity and some cool stretches, once again couldn't bring this team to compete. The main issue, once again, was injuries, as the rotation was held together with scotch tape and some of the biggest pieces going into this year, like Matt McLain, Christian Encarnacion Strand, Brandon Williamson and T.J. Friedl, spent too much time on the IL. 

That means that flawed seasons by the regulars who did stay healthy were more exposed. Will Benson has become an everyday guy for this team, despite being fairly one-dimensional as a hitter. This year, in 128 games, Benson hit .187 with 14 hits and 43 RBIs. The man had only 64 hits, and 154 strikeouts. And he wasn't great defensively either.
2025 Prediction: I think keeping him as a bench bat/DH is the better option, and hopefully his aim improves a bit.

Jake Fraley remained a starting outfielder this year and, by and large, did a fair job. In 116 games, Fraley hit .277 with 5 homers and 26 RBIs, plus some average outfield play. Fraley didn't have the exclamation point he'd carried in previous seasons, especially at the plate. I think you can attribute that to the sleepy feel of the lineup as a whole. I don't think he's done really overperforming offensively.
2025 Prediction: A bounce-back year, with 20+ homers.

Graham Ashcraft, since his rookie season, has struggled with both his control and his health. Last year Ashcraft had a good season even if his ERA was drifting towards 5, but he missed a month or so with injuries. This year he was even more injury-limited, and mustered a 5.24 ERA and a 5-5 record in 15 starts. The man has just been unlucky as a major league rotation option, because he's always gonna be valued by this club but the window is never fully open enough for consistent success.
2025 Prediction: Ashcraft is gonna have a month or so where he's one of the best things about the Reds next year. But I don't know if it'll be a full year thing.

Alexis Diaz has thankfully remained a pretty steady closing option for the Reds. Like his brother Edwin, Alexis is not immaculate, and he'll have the occasional blown save, but he can still walk away year after year with a pretty strong body of work to show for. This year, despite a 4 ERA, Diaz still had 28 saves and 55 Ks in 60 appearances. Not the 37 he had in 2023, but I don't think the Reds are in any rush to find a new closer at the moment either.
2025 Prediction: 30+ saves. I think he might outdo his brother.

Around when it became clear that the Reds would be without Matt McLain AND Spencer Steer to start the season, and Noelvi Marte as well, the Reds traded for Santiago Espinal from Toronto. Espinal ironically would have finally gotten some starting time had he stayed with the Jays, but he was thrust right in with the Reds, and...was a suitable enough replacement infield choice. In 118 games he hit .246 with 9 homers [MORE THAN FRALEY] and 45 RBIs. Fine enough, though obviously not to the caliber the Reds thought they'd be getting at 3rd this year.
2025 Prediction: Sort of returns to the level of playing time he was at in Toronto before.

One of the surprise heroes of this Reds team was Brent Suter, the former Brewers swingman who, unsurprisingly, found a lot of similar long relief and starting opportunities with this Reds team, much like fellow swingman Nick Martinez. Suter had a nice year, with a 3.15 ERA and 50 Ks in 47 innings. Suter's a very handy guy to have around, because he both can start and close out games, and was great in both situations this year.
2025 Prediction: Will be the Reds' most utilized reliever next year. 

Ty France, in the midst of a subpar year with the Mariners, was swapped to Cincinnati to attempt to fill the hole at 1st. Compared to Dominic Smith, he did the better job, hitting .251 with 5 homers and 20 RBIs, despite some...suspect defensive moments. Kinda sucks how far France seems from his 2021-2022 peak, even 2 years later.
2025 Prediction: DHing somewhere, he has something of a comeback year.

And in the case of a late season reinforcement that went really well, in the deal that brought Frankie Montas to Milwaukee, the Brewers sent swingman Jakob Junis, who's become a really handy guy since his Giants days. Junis was a big star of the second half for the Reds, with a 2.85 ERA in 14 games, including 5 stars. Junis finished the year with a 0.780 WHIP and a 1.2 WAR, both very nice figures for a late trade piece.
2025 Prediction: Honestly I think he goes back to Milwaukee and does decently there.

Coming Tomorrow- Like usual I'm taking the holiday off, but come back boxing day for some extra Rockies. 

Monday, December 23, 2024

Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Red Sox

 

I can firmly say that the Boston Red Sox were the best bad team of 2024. They may have ended the season at literally .500, and they may have squandered the faintest playoff chance with a dreary August, but this team had low expectations and ended the year in third, ahead of the Blue Jays and Rays. They had two MVP caliber seasons from their star players, their three best starters went 30 or more games and stayed consistent, and are bringing up people that could be major pieces for a while. This season was definitely a win for the Sox, and considering their intentions this offseason, they want to climb the division again as soon as next year.

Trevor Story came into this season more motivated and fired up than he's been in years, then, like he has so many times in Boston, immediately got injured. Unlike Anthony Rendon you feel bad for Story, because he gives his all whenever possible, and just hasn't been able to keep it together with the Sox. In 26 games he hit .255 with 10 RBIs and only 2 homers. Something good has to be on the way.
2025 Prediction: Finally, Story gives Boston one of those 30-homer years they were promised way back in 2022.
Somehow, Nick Pivetta has found more consistency in Boston than he did in Philadelphia, even if you can make the argument that the Phillies have been more consistent in the last few years than the Sox have been. Pivetta had some shaky starts early on but evened out, ending up with a 4.14 ERA, 172 strikeouts and a 1.126 WAR. I think the Sox took a flyer on Pivetta in 2020 and didn't think they'd wind up with a solid innings eater for the rest of the decade.
2025 Prediction: I think the Sox might try to re-sign him for a spell, but if not, lands in a 4th starter spot for an NL Central team.

This current incarnation of the Sox has a lot of Yankee killers. Obviously Rafael Devers is a big one of those, but this year I found out first hand how lethal Masataka Yoshida can be against the Yanks. We had the game pretty much won, then Yoshida hit a massive home run and tied things up, and suddenly there was nothing we could really do. Yoshida has become a pretty strong DH type. He's not as consistent as most power DHs, but when he's on he's unstoppable. This year he hit .280 with 10 homers and 54 RBIs. Two of those homers came against the New York Yankees. 
2025 Prediction: For some reason, New York aside, Yoshida has to this point struggled to hit home runs in the majors. That all changes next year.

Another guy who had some nice luck against the Yanks when I saw them was Romy Gonzalez, a former White Sox infielder [he won the 2B gig over Leury Garcia a couple years ago] who was responsible for the majority of the innings at 2B in Trevor Story's absence. Gonzalez was above average, hitting .266 with 29 RBIs and 6 homers, and was strong defensively. 
2025 Prediction: Becomes the requisite superutility-IF and does well for himself.

I would not have predicted that, of all people, Rob Refsnyder would become one of the most celebrated fringe guys in Boston. I had no opinion of him when he was with the Yankees. He left no impact. And then he winds up in the Sox' system and becomes another Lou Merloni type 'EY GETTA LOADA DIS GUY' bench favorite there. I keep expecting the novelty to run out and it hasn't happened. In 93 games, Refsnyder hit .283 with 11 homers [MORE THAN YOSHIDA] and 40 RBIs.
2025 Prediction: Okay a downturn has to happen, but...either way he's still gonna do something fun in Fenway. He can't lose with these fans, it seems.

Triston Casas' injury sent the Red Sox into a tailspin, as they didn't have many backup 1B options readily available [save for someone like Refnsyder, which...no]. They tried Garrett Cooper, he didn't work. So they went with Dominic Smith, who did not make camp with the Cubs and couldn't even find work with Tampa. Smith got 84 games at 1st, and like Refsnyder he very quickly became the favorite of Sox fans, hitting .237 with 6 homers and 34 RBIs. Once Casas returned, Smith was very quickly cut, much to the ire of the Sox massive. His end of the year with Cincinnati, reunited with former Mets teammate Amed Rosario, didn't go quite as well.
2025 Prediction: If he couldn't make camp with the 2024 Cubs, can he make camp with somebody this year? Maybe. Or maybe he takes the minor league assignment and waits for a similar moment to 2024.

The lone deadline move the Sox made was poaching Danny Jansen from Toronto to replace, ironically, Reese McGuire as backup to Connor Wong. Jansen's defense spoke for itself, but he only hit .188 with 3 homers and 6 RBIs in 30 games, drastically less exciting than his first half stats.
2025 Prediction: I actually think he'll be a nice fit for Tampa, though don't count on them bringing him back if it goes well.

And in the haze of the final month of the year, as the Sox already knew they weren't making the playoffs, they filled a now-vacant rotation spot by calling up former Yankee prospect Richard Fitts, netted in the Verdugo deal. In a city like Boston, that's not a name that'll be responded to with subtlety. They just said goodbye to a guy they lovingly proclaimed Dick Mountain, you can't hand them a guy named Richard Fitts. "Ey, I wondah if he'll do any ads fuh K9! Right boys?" Anyway, Fitts slid right into the rotation, and in 4 games had a 1.74 ERA and a 0.6 WAR. He's not particularly flashy, but he seems to be one of those 'stay in without allowing much' types. Honestly, with Houck, Bello and Crawford they're good on flashy, and having a good innings-eating workhorse could be good for this team.
2025 Prediction: Fitts' appeal to this rotation will heavily depend upon A.) whether or not the Sox go for a smart rotation addition and B.) how healthy Garrett Whitlock is. Probably hinges most on the second one. Anyway he'll be solid enough in a low rotation role next year, when given the opportunity. 

Coming Tomorrow- As per usual this decade, a ton of leftover Reds.