Flexing From Third

 

Right now, despite a slight difference in overall pictures, there's a team in each league that is currently playing the same role. They are currently in third place in the division, overcame a really rough run, have a 1% shot of a division win thanks to either a comfy favorite or two comfy favorites within a handful of games of each other. They both have some bright young pitching, a few very important pieces joining the team in September, and a halfway decent shot at competition. Right now one team, the Red Sox, has a five game lead over any other wild card competitors [from the second spot], and the other team, the Diamondbacks, has a decent hold on the third spot but are quarreling with the Padres for it. 

The Sox are 74-63, the D-Backs are 73-65. Both teams want it. My prediction is that only one of them will make it, and the other one probably won't despite having a better record than like 2/3rds of the AL. 

The Red Sox, even after getting lambasted by the Yankees this past weekend, look as ready as they did last year, and arguably the lineup's even beefier now. Willson Contreras is having a terrific season as a power corner, with 26 homers and 79 RBIs. Ceddanne Rafaela, aside from his terrific center field defense, is still a ridiculous clutch hitter, leads the league in doubles with 32 and has 67 RBIs. Wilyer Abreu has 23 homers and 70 RBIs. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story just got back and are making the power numbers look even better. I am a little concerned that Adley Rutschman still isn't hitting very well, and has yet to really embrace playing for a competitor again, but on paper this is a team that can go deep.

The downside is that the rotation, while still sporting Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez, is still a little untested. Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle have impressed in full seasons, but neither have displayed the elite dominance that the team will need to take down a Yankee team or a Guardians team. Bennett is 9-6 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP, but he's had some rough starts that are beginning to pile up. Same with Payton Tolle, who's got a 3.09 ERA and 141 Ks. The only guy on this team with over 10 wins is Sonny Gray, meaning the depth guys don't get the team behind them as much as they should. And when some starts have to be handed to Patrick Sandoval and his 4.20 ERA and others need to be an opener game eventually handed to Brayan Bello, who's NOT getting it done at all this year, that reassurance would be nice. This team needs to be durable in a postseason environment, and when Suarez and Sandoval can struggle against New York even in August, it's a bit concerning.

The reason I think they're a better bet than Arizona is that the Sox have so much going on, so much rejoining the team and so much that we know works in October. The D-Backs haven't been since 2023, have a lot of shaky or injured heroes from that team, have minor pieces coming back but have heard mum on the status of Corbin Burnes, and have to outdo the Padres, who arguably have more going on.

The D-Backs went 15-13 this past month, meaning they did actually get a nice amount done but only slightly broke even. Losing Ketel Marte did not help, especially considering how he went out. That's definitely not an ego boost. This team also just lost Mike Soroka again, which isn't ideal especially if Gallen's still out. 

The good news is the core is still surging. Corbin Carroll doesn't have enough going on offensively to truly vie for an MVP this year, but he's got 16 triples, 19 homers, 20 steals and some impressive plays in right, so he's still the talk of the town. Arenado's come back season has crossed the 20 homer mark. Perdomo and Moreno have been very steady and very helpful. Ryan Waldschmidt has filled in pretty well in center, he's hitting .267 with decent contact work and great defense. Jordan Lawlar's finally back, and somehow is getting the edge over Lars Nootbaar. It's not an overly wild offensive team, but they do good, steady work and sneak their way out of tough situations.

Without Gallen, and without Merrill Kelly's better numbers, the rotation has needed to evolve naturally. Eduardo Rodriguez's better numbers has returned, and he's at ace status again, with a 14-4 record and a 2.50 ERA. Somehow Brandon Pfaadt came back after a rough first two months and became must-see TV again, being the starter for 7 wins after coming back [with a 6-0 personal record in that time]. He's been getting rocked a little recently, but it's still a decent year for Pfaadt, with a 3.50 ERA in 24 games. People thought he'd be the future of the franchise when he came up as a postseason hero, and while that hasn't exactly happened he's still come through when the team has needed him. 

Also, this team has a very underrated bullpen. Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo, Brandyn Garcia, Gerardo Carillo and now Justin Martinez have all been excellent, especially in the last couple months. This team has even gotten Dennis Santana to stop sucking. That is an ACCOMPLISHMENT. 

I do ultimately think the Sox have a better road to October than the D-Backs, but the D-Backs are the kind of team who could sneak in and catch fire, much like they did in 2023. I'm not sure how likely it is given the Padres' strengths, and given the fact that the Marlins are still somewhat in the race, but I could see it somehow happening even with everything I know to be true.

Coming Tomorrow- Last year the Marlins had a starting catcher. Then they traded him to Tampa in favor of a younger guy. He started this year. Then they traded HIM to Tampa for a younger guy. This is that younger guy, and he's playing well enough to not exactly start scouting for beachfront property in Tampa about now.

Tolle Boost

 

With a new CBA probably on the way, sometime after a settlement that will take far too long to be reached, there's always murmurs about a divisional realignment, which Rob Manfred wants to do but I don't think anybody else does. He always goes on like 'well, with the universal DH, the NL and AL are meaningless, and since all 30 teams play each other once a season, the divisional matchups mean less, so we can just put the Mets and Yankees in the same division because it's way easier that way', like...listen to yourself. You're tearing down things that work, and have worked, just to save time and money, and you're forgetting WHY they work. The Yankees and Mets being in separate divisions works because the rare times they do play each other feel special. That's also why an actual divisional matchup like Yanks-Sox can happen a ton of times per season, because it doesn't need to feel unique. Yanks-Sox is just normal stuff. Of course they're playing each other again, it's been a few weeks anyhow.

But the one argument in favor of divisional realignment is that some divisions are simply built better than others. The AL East this year, much like in other recent years, have three teams that have a better record than literally every other team in the AL. Nobody in the Central or West has a better record than the third place team in the AL East, and the last place team in the AL East has the same amount of wins has two teams fighting for a playoff spot in the AL Central. Conventional wisdom says you need to reshuffle. I don't necessarily agree, as I like that some divisions are better than others, but if you're a Red Sox fan you probably need things to change. Since the Yankees and Red Sox play each other less now, both teams can be good without one or the other suffering record-wise.

And so, while the Sox are still looking at a playoff spot, they've got this long road for something that should be more inevitable than it actually is. They've got more pieces than a lot of the great teams in other divisions, and have one of the best hitting performances in the game this season coming from Willson Contreras and his .927 OPS. But they still have to get through a wild card round that stopped them last year, despite a pretty decent team. And they've gotta do it with the possibility of there being no Masataka Yoshida, no Roman Anthony, no Trevor Story and no Garrett Crochet. 

Thankfully, Crochet's absence has not broken this team as much as you'd think, as they've survived well enough using their immediate starting options. Patrick Sandoval is the shakiest of everybody, he's got a 5 ERA in 7 starts, but he's not even that bad. Jake Bennett's improving, has a 1.066 WHIP and a 3.50 ERA. Ranger Suarez is sort of doing his usual thing, low ERA, not a lot of runs scored, same as in Philly. Sonny Gray's having a comeback season for the ages, with a league-leading 15 wins, a 2.65 ERA and 117 Ks. And then you've got Payton Tolle, a 23-year-old schtarker with the arsenal to fool everybody, who currently has a 3 ERA, 134 Ks and a 1.083 WHIP. He's not the fanciest pitcher here, but he works hard, gets people out and keeps things clean. I think the lack of a Crochet type will be obvious if he's out for the postseason run, but someone like Tolle will definitely help. Which is weird, because of him and Connelly Early I assumed Early would be the guy going forward, but evidently the Sox figured they didn't need him. Anyway, Curtis Mead's still injured. 

On that note, kinda weird that Jahmai Jones is more productive than any of the Sox's postseason pickups, including Adley Rutschman. 

The Sox have a surprisingly nice core, have used Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler and Mickey Gasper in huge roles despite being replacement level, have gotten terrific seasons out of Contreras, Durbin, Rafaela and Abreu, and are keeping the momentum going for the most part despite a very precarious path to postseason glory. I think they could figure it out more than last year's team, but if they get the Yanks again it'll be another war of attrition, and I'm not wild about that.

Coming Tomorrow- Meanwhile, on the team they traded Early to, the league's base-stealing king gets a new everyday gig.

Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals of 2026

 Well...a lot happened this time around. 

Following the brass today was HARROWING. So much was happening, and so quickly. Almost evenly displaced as well, like there'd be a move, I'd have time to make a custom of them, and the next two moves would be up. And I think it was all a well rounded bunch. Last year the emphasis was on relief pitching, this year it was a little of everything. Some teams needed starting help, some teams needed outfield bats, some teams needed catchers [and some needed catchers and somehow forgot to deal for any]. A lot went down, even to the point where, after the BIG MOVE happened a few days ago, I was worried nothing would top it. And...I mean, we'll get to it, but there certainly was competition. 

I have a lot of other posts planned for deadline week, I have a 'best of the rest' one planned, I have a 'the ones I didn't understand' post in a bit. But we've got to do the top 10. This kept sliding by the whole day and got to the point where it is now. One spot stayed the same. And...yeah.

Anyway, we start with one I really didn't think was gonna happen this deadline:

#10: Heliot Ramos to the Yankees, 2 prospects to the Giants

So, the Yankees went into the deadline looking for bullpen work and a catching upgrade, and got neither. So Heliot Ramos, a very savvy lineup addition, makes it to the end of this list without going forward. Let me just stress that I love this move, Ramos is young, controllable, and powerful. He's been hurt for a bit but he's hitting .264 with 9 homers and 34 RBIs in 74 games. He's a ferocious hitter with a huge upside and a lot to accomplish, and...he gets to hit in Yankee stadium. The tricky part is it crowds the outfield a bit. Right now it's Ramos/Jones/Dominguez/Grisham, and eventually Bellinger and Judge are gonna come back and it's gonna get even more crowded. It's bad enough that Paul Goldschmidt's gonna have even less at-bats now [more on that in another post], now we're crowding the active roster. It's gonna be worth it if Ramos continues his very strong work, which is very likely.

#9: Taylor Ward to the Mariners, 3 prospects to the Orioles

The Mariners have the kind of team that should work more in concept, because you have Randy Arozarena, Brendan Donovan, Julio Rodriguez, Dominic Canzone and Josh Naylor there and the contact game is ailing. So in comes Taylor Ward to make it even more ridiculous. Ward's having another excellent season, but it's a very contact heavy one without much need for power. He only has 7 homers and 30 RBIs, and that is appalling from a guy who's had 100 RBIs and 36 homers JUST A SEASON AGO. Wouldn't a trip to Seattle be a fun time to start power-hitting? Ward's an excellent outfield bat with some versatility and perks, and he could be the lineup piece that the Mariners need to save their season. I just think he really fits with what they're doing in Seattle. I'm also really happy the Mariners didn't deal Kirby or Emerson. Yes, that prevents against the possibility of stretch Kade, but their rotation is excellent and didn't need to be broken up beyond Castillo.

#8: Kevin Gausman to the Cubs, 2 prospects to the Blue Jays

The Jays had a really weird deadline, because they both sold and bought at the same time. And arguably they should have committed more to one than both. Ultimately, they chose to part with one of their longest-tenured stars, the mighty Kevin Gausman, where he will become something the Cubs have desperately needed this year: an actual ace. Justin Steele's been hurt, Cade Horton's out for a while, Shota Imanaga's struggled. They need stability, and Gausman is a veteran arm with postseason experience who can back up the already strong offense. This is a downslope of a year compared to his peak, as he is 5-10 with a 4.38 ERA, but he's still a fundamentally strong pitcher with a lot of great starts left in him. I think he will greatly aid the Cubs down the stretch. Perhaps not as much as someone a little further down, but enough to land on this list.

#7: Luis Arraez and Caleb Killian to the Phillies, 2 prospects to the Giants

This is arguably a little low, but it's down here because the Phillies really needed a better option at fourth or fifth starter and didn't get one. They also needed an outfield bat...and didn't get one. So Luis Arraez, as good as he is, is an odd consolation for so many pieces of this lineup that needed help, and if we miss out on a World Series, it could be Dombrowski's fault for not going further. However...the Phillies now have Luis Arraez. And that's a very good thing. One of the best contact hitters in the game, and a terrific defensive 2nd baseman, joins this lineup, and moving Stott, Bohm and Harper around supremely improves the defense in general. Arraez is electric wherever he is, and the Phils could see that fully going forward. We also got Caleb Killian, who's a terrific bullpen arm with a great upside. Very much a win for Philly, even if the team isn't fully improved by this deadline.

#6: Foster Griffin to the Guardians, 4 prospects to the Nationals.

The Guardians had a sneakily good deadline, bringing on a lot of pieces that lift this team up to where they can really chase Chicago. Foster Griffin was their best move, because their fifth man in the rotation was Slade Cecconi, and as good as he can be, they could do better. Their rotation is now Messick, Williams, Bibee, Griffin and Cantillo, and that's among the best in the bigs. Griffin isn't an ace, but he's an excellent mid-rotation arm with 12 wins and a 3.05 ERA under his belt, and that's from playing for a very okay Nationals team. He'll thrive in a playoff environment in Cleveland, and build on this belated rookie season to become an even bigger force going forward. 

#5: Clay Holmes and Tyrone Taylor to the Cubs, Francisco Rojas to the Mets

This one ways a little more than Gausman to me for the Cubs pitching additions, because Holmes, until the injury, was having the best season of his career, and one of the only good seasons on the Mets. Through 9 games he had a 2.39 ERA, and was proving that the Mets moving him to the rotation was a good idea after all. The idea is that once Holmes is active [as well as Braxton Garrett], he'll be able to aid the Cubs rotation, and I see him as a front-facing integral arm that could lead them through some postseason games. Tyrone Taylor's also an excellent outfield depth option for this team, and could be very helpful on a postseason roster. The Cubs weren't fully ready before, and now they are.

#4: Freddy Peralta to the Rays, 3 prospects to the Mets

This deal will work out if the thesis, that the Mets were just a really poor fit for Peralta, is true. Peralta succeeded in Milwaukee, a small market team built on contact and pitching. That's also the Rays. Low budget, small core, close wins, and an impressive rotation. Peralta levels it up, as good as Rasmussen and Martinez have been. Shane McClanahan's gonna miss some time, and Peralta will be relied upon to deliver Brewers numbers as an ace for a Rays team with a shot at a #1 seed. Peralta's 4.99 ERA will need to come down if the Rays want to take advantage of this deadline, and I have a feeling it will. Meanwhile, Jett Williams is still chilling in the Brewers' farm system, and Brandon Sproat is getting all kinds of starts, so...lolMets.

#3: Liam Hicks to the Rays, Brayden Taylor and 2 prospects to the Marlins.

I like this one a little better for the Rays, simply because it fixes a lot of problems. It ups their catching game, ensuring Nick Fortes doesn't have to start behind the plate as much. It also gives them a proven contact bat with some kick against righthanded pitchers, and a very well-trusted lineup presence. I think he's just one of those guys who can pop into any lineup and just dive right in with excellent production, so I think he'll love Tampa. And also, he drains the Rays' farm system a little more so other teams can have a chance. Just a really cool, sneaky move by the Rays that positions them further towards a late run.

#2: Adley Rutschman and Jake Rogers to the Red Sox, Carlos Narvaez and 4 prospects to the Orioles.

I would say since Varitek left, the Red Sox have had a revolving door at catcher. So many guys that could have been the one, or should have. Victor Martinez, Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Sandy Leon, Christian Vasquez, Connor Wong, Carlos Narvaez, and the list goes on and on. So to finally have an answer at catcher, and for it to be Adley Rutschman a terrific hitting catcher whose team already foreshadowed this move by signing Samuel Basallo to a multi-year deal...that is huge. Rutschman's having another great season, but it did feel like this O's team was moving past the need for him. With this Boston team he'll fit right in, and be another huge lineup piece of a team that's quickly becoming a serious wild card threat. Very much a case of giving a team exactly the guy they need going forward.

But of course...nothing was gonna top the #1 piece on the board. Even if you disagree with its existence, this deal needed to be #1.

#1: Tarik Skubal to the Dodgers, River Ryan, Zyhir Hope and 1 other prospect to the Tigers

So. The best team in baseball got the best pitcher in baseball. In 16 starts, Skubal had a 2.79 ERA, 7 wins, 116 Ks and a 2.9 WAR. He's still in his peak, is effortlessly brilliant, and was never gonna stay in Detroit. The Dodgers taking him happened because they had a well-stocked farm system where even their lower tier prospects were more than other teams were offering. It's disappointing that, like a lot of recent Dodger developments, nobody else could stop it from happening. But now Sku gets to help the Dodgers go for a threepeat, and it's gonna make electric October baseball even if they don't get all the way. It's also gonna add fuel to the fire that Skubal will, in all likelihood, choose to stay in LA going forward. Definitely shifts the balance of the game, which is what the trade deadline is for. 

So yeah. A lot happened. A lot of teams won. And now the Dodgers are even scarier. Sets up the last third perfectly.

Sometime tomorrow there'll be a 'best of the rest' post most likely, with a lot of other deals that didn't make this list. 

The Month of Living Dangerously

 

So. After a 21-4 July, which is an incredibly odd thing to type out, the Boston Red Sox have gone from punchline of the division to a serious wild card threat. Not much has changed. Chad Tracy's managing now. Brayan Bello was demoted to middle relief in favor of Patrick Sandoval. Anthony Siegler's been up, Romy Gonzalez has been healthy. Everything else has been the same, personnel-wise. So...I think the key is that everything that wasn't working about this team from the start is working now. That includes Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez and Caleb Durbin, who all had really rough starts and have become some of the highlights of the team.

Durbin is a strange case, because he had a better hitting season last year with Milwaukee. He's doing fine this year, he has 10 home runs and 44 RBIs, but the hook has been his improved defense at third, which it just feels like the Sox haven't really had in a while. Gray and Suarez have both settled in and are in the midst of excellent seasons. Gray is 13-2 with a 2.93 ERA, a comeback season if I've ever seen one. Suarez has a 3.15 ERA and 105 Ks, very much a middle of the rotation year like the ones he had in Philly. And around that you have two standout seasons from young starters, Payton Tolle and Jake Bennett, and they've been very helpful. Bennett, in 11 starts, is 6-4 with a 2.74 ERA, and Toller has a 3.30 ERA and 110 Ks. The closest thing to a knockout, K-heavy ace, Garrett Crochet, is still out with an injury, and the guys who are left, while not bad, are just steady, formidable guys that do the work. 

That's really how you'd describe a lot of this Sox team. A lot of guys on the same page, not elbowing each other for the stardom, just lining up and performing. Masataka Yoshida, Ceddanne Rafaela, Wilyer Abreu and Romy Gonzalez have always given me that idea, just consistent performers who get up there and do something cool and it doesn't have to be about them. Willson Contreras and Caleb Durbin, therefore, fit right in, and Anthony Siegler seems to have gotten this memo as well. Which is why the 'look at me' guys haven't always done as well. Jarren Duran is STILL trying to work back up to something decent, but he's still hitting .199 despite 13 homers and 56 RBIs. Roman Anthony is hurt yet again, and was hitting .229 before the fact. Trevor Story's once again missing a large chunk of the year. Contreras is the closest thing to a big star, and he certainly had his big ego moment with Cade Cavalli, but even he's sort of dialed into the group mentality and doesn't have to be THE guy, despite being far and away the best offensive performer on the team. 

It's been cool seeing this Sox team come to prominence, and after adding Curtis Mead they look to keep adding pieces in the next few hours and make a run. The issue I have is that we're still not sure if they're a Blue Jays 2.0 type team that doesn't let up, or if July was it and they're about to go back downhill, now with even more cargo. I think they will remain a player, I just don't know if they'll be as unstoppable as they were last month. Then again, it has been a while since the Sox have won a World Series, and this could be the kind of team that shocks everyone. 

Coming Tonight: Probably a Top 10 Trade Deadline Deals post, if I'm up to it. 

Sonny Came Home

 

So. After starting the season with a disastrous run, losing Alex Cora and putting the future of the youth core in jeopardy, the Boston Red Sox have won 12 straight. Including 2 against the Rays. While, on one hand, cutting down the Rays a bit is good for the Yankees...the Red Sox may have transformed into a good team right before our eyes. They're in 3rd place now, at .500, might not even be selling anymore...and could be a serious problem.

I think the most indicative player on this team is Sonny Gray. They traded for him to get some kind of veteran presence on the team, it cost them Hunter Dobbins and Richard Fitts, fine whatever. Gray's April wasn't very good. And so people worried he was washed, as they did last year, and that the Sox made a rash decision. Then he evened out. And as it stands, Gray is currently 11-1 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.098 WHIP and 85 Ks. One of the most under the radar great seasons in baseball, and it's been the backbone of this Sox team as they've inched their way back up. Gray is looking better than he has since Minnesota, and he's the ideal guy to lead them into the heat of this season.

A lot of 'ooh, I don't know about that' guys have been the center of the Sox comeback. Willson Contreras obviously, he was a supposed dead end financially, yet now he's the power 1st baseman they've needed since Devers' numbers, and mood, dipped. Contreras has a .921 OPS, 20 homers and 61 RBIs. Caleb Durbin was the Brewers' collateral to make room for Jett Williams [who still hasn't come up, by the way], and he's become a fairly decent corner bat, with improved 3rd base defense and some production. Jake Bennett was a 'well, if you insist' call-up and now he's got a 2.64 ERA in 8 starts. Even Patrick Sandoval seems to be back to his old tricks and helping this team.

That doesn't mean I'm not still concerned about the organizational depth. Roman Anthony, Marcelo Mayer and Kristian Campbell have all been non-factors for this team. Jarren Duran is a .200 hitter who's barely above replacement level, despite his best efforts. Anthony Siegler and Tsung-Che Cheng have been decent filling in for infielders that are hurt, but are they the answers or just temporary solutions? I know it's not an issue if the team keeps winning games, but is this sustainable? Or is it just a passing summer fling that no one will remember in a year.

The Sox are hot, have leverage, and don't even need all their best pieces to win games. That's a dangerous skill. Doesn't automatically make them a playoff team, but it's more intriguing than most of what I saw from them in the first half.

Coming Tonight: A young second baseman whose team kicked the crap out of Toronto last night, putting THEM in last in the AL East. 

Never Ced

 

So...Yanks-Sox caught us at a weird moment. We were 3-4 since the Reds series started, and now we're 3-6 [I'm writing this before the game last night]. It had been a while since our last cold spell, so we were kind of due, but this is the kind of thing where...we might have accidentally given the Red Sox life. And I'd rather we didn't do that.

The Sox don't have a fully terrific team, especially with Jarren Duran still being a disappointment, but they're creeping up to the O's in the standings and are beginning to scare me a little, like they might be something after all. Early on this season, we were calling Ranger Suarez, Sonny Gray and Payton Tolle disappointments and now they're all having really nice seasons. The rotation looks genuinely excellent right now, across the board. I know how often it feels like it's being tied together with a rubber band, but this is a very compact group of 5 solid hurlers, not weighed down by a guy fighting an injury [sorry Garrett Crochet]. Ranger Suarez is looking Phillies-good, and has a 2.83 ERA with 84 Ks. Connelly Early has something resembling ace numbers, with 7 wins, 88 Ks and a 3.59 ERA. Sonny Gray is 9-1 with his ERA under 2, and barring a lower K total than usual he's looking like his old dominant self, which is very good for a guy that felt like a buyout. Tolle's a terrific leverage guy who kept the Yankees down to only one or two hits the other night. And Jake Bennett's slowly learning the ropes, and has a 3.27 ERA in his first 6 MLB starts. This is a legitimately great rotation that could get even better if Crochet comes back without much difference. The bullpen's a little shaky, but they have Chapman, at least for now. 

It's the lineup that's a bit hazardous, despite the spark keeping it interesting. Ceddanne Rafaela and Wilyer Abreu have remained the steady backbone of this lineup, continually providing excellent lineup support and great everyday defense. Rafaela leads the team in doubles with 18, and has 35 RBIs and 10 steals. Abreu has 10 homers and 38 RBIs, and is having a more traditional power year. Both are integral to this lineup, more than even Duran has been with his .198 lineup and 98 Ks. What's really upsetting is that the young core the team was trying to set up last year is nowhere to be found. Kristian Campbell has yet to make the bigs this year, and both Marcelo Mayer and Roman Anthony are hurt. As is Trevor Story, as custom. So now we have Andruw Monasterio and Anthony Seigler plugged in playing those roles, and you can kinda tell something's missing. Seigler's batting .300 through 10 games, but I'm not sure how much of a ceiling he has with the Sox. Durbin's doing better than he was but he's still just a .229 hitter, Yoshida's having another down year, Wong is surpassing Narvy again. Barring Rafaela, Abreu and Contreras, there's not really a ton to this lineup. Which is kinda upsetting.

The Sox have the momentum right now, and could use that, and the pitching, to ride up the standings a little and give the top 2 teams some heat. I don't think this means they're a full competitor yet but it means I'm not writing them off as much as I was.

Coming Tonight: He had a big hit on Opening Day, and has remained on the roster long enough to be one of the few people on his team actually hitting. 

Which Young People are the Good Ones Again?

 

The trouble with basing a team around a youth movement is that after a certain point it becomes akin to wrangling cats. And that's kinda where we're at in Boston. Obviously the veterans are gonna be taken care of. Willson Contreras, Wilyer Abreu, Sonny Gray, Aroldis Chapman, Ranger Suarez and IKF- no issues. They know the drill, and even the newcomers can take to Boston pretty easily. Suarez had a rough first few starts, he's mellowed out, he's now got a 3.18 ERA. Gray's even settled in, he's 7-1. IKF's been a really valuable utility guy, proving he can excel anywhere in the AL East except New York. 

But the kids...the kids that are supposed to be leading the team...it's just not entirely happening.

Roman Anthony in 2025 was hilariously inconsistent. He took a month to get going, then got hotter than hell to the point where, once he got injured, he became the 'magic hat' piece for this team. And so he starts the year healthy, and now he's hurt again. Marcelo Mayer has stayed healthy, but like last year he hasn't really gotten going yet. He's hitting .224 with a .600 OPS. This is not what was promised. Caleb Durbin cost this team Kyle Harrison, something that's gonna really haunt them going forward, and he's barely done anything this year, hitting .193. At least Isaac Collins has turned his season around. Durbin's just stalling in place. And Carlos Narvaez, after a breakout 2025, has regressed to a .200 hitter and has given the catching job back to Connor Wong essentially.

The most confounding detail of this Sox team is Jarren Duran, who's supposed to be the centerpiece of the whole thing. He's got 10 homers, 34 RBIs and 11 steals right now, which is not bad. But he is currently hitting .209, with a .655 OPS. That is heartbreakingly average. Duran is constantly put in position to be the hero, and while sometimes it does pay off, this should not be the central guy. Not when he's hitting .209. In 2024 he had a 9 WAR, and was one of the most impressive hitters in baseball. Now he's just as forgettable as he was back in 2021 when he was starting out.

What's nice is that the young players that ARE pulling their weight are mostly pitchers. Connelly Early and Payton Tolle, after debuting last August, have essentially taken over the rotation, and are in the midst of very strong breakout years. Early has made all his starts and has a 3.30 ERA with a team-leading 69 Ks. He's an impressive, consistent starter without being too flashy. Tolle is even sharper, with a 2.70 ERA and 54 Ks in 9 starts. In a year where Brayan Bello and Garrett Crochet have let this team down, these two springing into action is exactly the right remedy, and is a surer sign of future value than Mayer and Durbin's antics. Also, lest we forget Ceddanne Rafaela, who's having a great contact year so far. There's even a chance Jake Bennett could make a further impact if he shakes off starts like today's, which wasn't even that bad but isn't to the standard of his compatriots. So it's not all horror stories from this youth movement, but the fact that it's a lot of that does not bode well.

The Sox have Texas and Toronto up next. I can't say with certainty that they're better than either. We'll see how the young guys continue to fare in a team very much made for them.

Coming Tomorrow- He hasn't pitched since 2024, and he's suddenly extremely valuable, which says less about him and more about the state of his team. 

A Lot Changes in Ten Years

 

In 2016, Willson Contreras was called up to act as an alternative to Miguel Montero behind the plate, at least on days where David Ross wasn't catching for Jon Lester. It was, in actuality, the last necessary piece to cement a lineup that would propel the Cubs to a World Series, one they would FINALLY win. Contreras used that season as a starting point, and eventually became one of the best hitting catchers in baseball, retaining his dignity until 2022, and eventually leaving to play for the division rivals in St. Louis. 

Now, Contreras has a different role, as first baseman on a team vastly different from the 2016 Cubs. The 2026 Red Sox do have a lot of great young players, and a lineup on the verge of greatness...but they're still a last place team, and they're still relying on Contreras's offense as a main asset rather than as one of many standouts. In 2016, Contreras could be a cog in a machine and let Rizzo, Bryant, Fowler, Schwarber and Baez have heroic moments. Now, when Anthony, Mayer, Duran and Yoshida don't have things rolling, it's up to Contreras more often than not. The balance has shifted. 

I thought it was really cool earlier this month, though, to see Willson Contreras reunited with Jon Lester, as the latter was inducted into Sox Hall of Fame. Lester in 2016 was the ten year veteran, the World Series winner, the ace coming to town to jumpstart a new regime. Lester had all the respect in the world when he came to Chicago, and he wanted to win that third ring with a new team. And so it would be done. Now, Willson is the ten year veteran coming to town in an effort to jumpstart something. And so it was really fitting that Contreras got to give a hug to Lester after his ceremony. The passing of the mantle, as it was.

Contreras is currently hitting .281 with 11 home runs and 33 RBIs, pretty exceptional power numbers for the big guy. His OPS is .899, the best in Boston currently. And while it might not be the most exceptional season by a member of the Contreras family, Willson's is a very sure and confident barrage of power, surer than he's been since 2019. Now, as a first baseman, he can appear in more games, and last year he came the closest to 100 RBIs of any season thus far, with 80. He's never had a 25 homer year, which is kind of insane, and perhaps this is the year that changes.

The Sox themselves are still struggling to live up to expectations. The young kids, Early and Tolle, are making up a lot of ground that Garrett Crochet and Brayan Bello should have covered by now. Jarren Duran's still hitting .193, and if you can believe it, Caleb Durbin's hitting worse. Story's 2025 resurgence may have been a one-off. It's not a terribly engaging team, and yesterday I saw my first 'where Aroldis Chapman might be heading this July' article. Having Contreras is certainly better than the alternative, but hopefully he stays long enough to not have to be as essential as he is right now. 

Coming Tonight: Speaking of people who really shouldn't be as essential as they are right now, for teams that shouldn't be as bad as they are right now, a guy making more money than you, and for good reason.

Complaining Works...Sort Of

 

'Fire the manager' syndrome is such a strange derangement. Because it leads you to believe that the actions of players, executives, opposing schedules and coaches can be excused if the manager gets canned. Forget that he got a team to a World Series, forget the years of equity, no, somebody's gotta pay, and it's that guy, and the turnaround will confirm it was his fault. It's never that simple, regardless of what any Philly sports fan would have you believe.

But so far, two teams have fired their managers, and both have seen some improvement. In one case it's a little more prominent. 

Let's start with the more basic case. The Red Sox. Going into this year it was a possibility that they'd suck, and even if they put money into the team, that wouldn't take away the fact that so many strong pieces have actively left. Alex Bregman did not want to come back, despite the wonderful year he had. Rafael Devers left as soon as he could. Nick Pivetta signed with a west coast team that was arguably headed in a similar direction. That anybody actually wanted to come back, regardless of whether or not it was someone who a lot of teams actively avoided signing [Aroldis Chapman], is surprising. But they built a strong enough team for 2026, and for a while it truly did not work. So out went Alex Cora, and the majority of the coaching staff, and in went Chad Tracy.

The Sox were 10-17 before the firing. They're 6-4 since. Not earth-shattering, not season-saving, but you can see things turning around.

Mainly, a lot of the pieces have evened out after some rough starts. Ranger Suarez and Sonny Gray struggled in early Boston starts, they've rebounded in recent weeks. Suarez now has a 2.77 ERA, and since Crochet landed on the IL has been the closest thing this team has to an ace. Caleb Durbin has also improved a bit since his dismal start, and you can slowly see Jarren Duran and Marcelo Mayer begin to pick things up. The main assets are still veteran guys like Willson Contreras and Trevor Story, which is somewhat concerning. I think Roman Anthony is on his way, but it feels like every time he's about to get going he gets hurt, much like a different New York outfielder.

At the very least, 38-year-old Aroldis Chapman is still a very sure bet in the ninth. I think Chapman wants to retire as a Red Sock, and is fully embracing his villain arc after reaching glory in New York. Good for him. He's still got that unsavory subtext to him, but damn if he's not a scary closing gun still. In 12 appearances he has 7 saves, 14 Ks and a 0.77 ERA. That's vintage Chapman. He doesn't have a particularly great bullpen behind him this year but he's giving his all.

It's still not entirely pretty, but you can see more life in the Sox than there was before, and that's a start I guess. I don't know if it means they're a challenger in this division this year, but who knows.

Now, as for the other team that fired their manager...

Gotta be honest...I didn't think firing Rob Thomson was the answer. He was a steady captain the last few years, got the team to a World Series, wasn't flashy or particular. There's a case to be made about whether or not his managerial style actually had an impact on the team or if he was a George Seifert type who inherited greatness and did what he could to contain it. But I didn't know about firing Thomson in April before things really got going. But, that's what the Phillies did. First Taijuan Walker went, then Thomson followed, and then Don Mattingly took the helm. 

And of course, since Mattingly took over, the Phils have been 8-1. Probably 8-2 by the end of the night, the A's have been hammering the hell out of them [as they tend to at times], but still. Something's clearly different. Bryce Harper's hitting again. Jesus Luzardo's found his control. The bullpen's turned into an impressive ragtag unit of guys that haven't pissed me off yet. Somehow Brandon Marsh is off to the best start of any hitter, hitting .336 with 4 homers and 19 RBIs. The big man has always been a lower tier Phillies weapon, and seeing him finally step up again is a very good thing. Would love to see something similar from Bryson Stott as well.

I think it's also helped that we've gotten Zack Wheeler and J.T. Realmuto back after some injuries, and they're still in pretty good shape. Wheeler's got a 3.12 ERA and 18 Ks in 3 starts, he's definitely his old self. J.T.'s hitting .265 and is still a great catcher. I dunno if he was worth everything we signed him for but he's better than Rafael Marchan, that's for sure. There's still some weak spots in the lineup, and there's still some guys that should be playing better right now [Bohm mostly], but this is an improved version of the team I saw last month right at the beginning of the losing streak. And if people are crediting Mattingly rather than just...the momentum swing that this team usually deals with, then whatever.

I think the Phillies have a better shot going forward than the Red Sox solely because the Phillies are built better right now, though admittedly both teams have an issue with young players not performing as well as intended. Still, we've got 5 months left and a lot of twists and turns, so both teams could be in opposite places weeks from now.

Coming Tomorrow- Infield specialist and occasional impressive bat for the team that is currently leading the AL Central. 

Wilyer Or Won't You

 

I don't think anybody could have predicted just how rough the Red Sox's start would be. I don't think many people were thinking they'd be a 1st place finisher, but the idea was that these guys could chase the division and contend with some of the bigger guns on account of their lineup core and well-stocked rotation, but...yeah if anybody came into this season thinking this would be an outright last place team, I doubt it'd gain too much traction. 

Let's see, what's failed already for this team. Okay, so Ranger Suarez in Fenway has gone essentially as badly as one might expect, he's struggled to find his footing already. Johan Oviedo made one appearance and is now out for a few months, meaning they gave up The Password, still chilling in Indianapolis, for nothing. Caleb Durbin's been an absolute train wreck at third, hitting .126, meaning they could have avoided this by signing Bregman. Marcelo Mayer still can't hit at the MLB level, and without David Hamilton's security, and with Romy Gonzales and Triston Casas hurt, the infield's looking dire. Jarren Duran still isn't hitting, and has now resorted to flipping off fans. Brayan Bello's having another disappointing year after so much promise. And now, after a rough start in Minneapolis, Garrett Crochet has a 7.58 ERA, which he will spend the rest of the season trying to get down despite the ability to slow down any team, which he still has.

That's a LOT that isn't working. And that doesn't even include the fact that they have no pieces left from the Rafael Devers deal, and one of them, Kyle Harrison, was redeeming himself in Milwaukee til the injury. Too many flighty decisions are coming back to haunt this Sox team early, and it's begun to piss off the fanbase. And if there's one thing you do not want to do, it's piss off New Englanders. They took the Pats thing fairly well, but this Sox thing is happening on top of the potential of both an early Celtics exit and a rough seeding against the Sabres. If anything else bad happens, the Boston fans are gonna start storming the field and fighting Trevor Story.

It's not that there aren't highlights, but they feel hidden. Wilyer Abreu's off to a phenomenal start, hitting .333 with 10 RBIs and 3 homers. He leads the league in WAR with 1.4, which is pretty nice. Roman Anthony and Willson Contreras have already been pretty productive in terms of power numbers, and are looking to keep the top of the lineup looking that scary. Connelly Early has been providing a shocking bit of consistency amid a rotation that should be pitching better, as he's the only one of the 5 with an ERA lower than 3. And Aroldis Chapman seems to love Boston, and still has a very low ERA. Not sure why a guy who has a history of hitting things would enjoy Boston so much but there you go.

The Sox don't just look bad right now, they look dire. As dire as a team with that much money put into it can look. There's always a chance to turn things around, but this really isn't a great start.

Coming Tomorrow- Since Soto left, the Nationals have been looking for a piece that could be described as 'foundational'. I think they found one.

The Last Few Burning Questions of Spring

 

The last few exhibition games are being played out tonight, to get the last few trials in before the real ones. The final cuts are currently being made, call-ups are being announced, and we're finally ready to get the season moving before there's no season to play. It's the most exciting moment of a season, because it's the last moment where there's still potential energy, before the sobering reality hits. And then the colors mute, the cold returns, and the season runs ahead. 

I've still got a couple more customs from Spring Training to dole out, and so from there, let's examine some of the last few lingering concerns and loose threads that might be at play during the 2026 season.

-Does Ranger Suarez mean the Red Sox' rotation is for real? On paper, the combination of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello and Connelly Early looks good, but with the exception of Early, all of these guys have shown downsides in recent history. Gray's coming off a down year, Suarez struggled to come back fully after the hand injury, Bello's ERA stayed plainly around 4.50 for a while, and Crochet was in injury hell for a while. How likely will it be that everything clicks at once? Luckily, Johan Oviedo, Payton Tolle and Kutter Crawford are around in case something goes wrong.

-Will Kevin McGonigle succeed where other Tigers infield prospects haven't? Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, two infield prospects that looked like hits, both failed to make the team out of camp. Colt Keith still has second for now, and Zach McKinstry is mostly an interloper. The future is paved for McGonigle and Clark, but will they take advantage of the moment or end up like Jung, Sweeney, Ryan Kreidler and more?

-Is the world ready for a decidedly non-competitive Cardinals team? Despite the complete lack of star power, the entirely decimated pitching staff, and the reliance on guys like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera to provide some form of normalcy, many pundits are still predicting the Cardinals will finish with more wins than the Pirates. Even with substantial evidence that Oli Marmol is well past his expiry date. It's not like the Patriots where it can just suddenly happen overnight. J.J. Wetherholt is likely very good at baseball, but is he gonna be enough to get anyone to care about this team? 

-Similarly, will THIS team be the Angels team that brings non-Ohtani relevance back to Anaheim? A lot of the pieces that worked separately in 2025 are still intact. Trout will be healthy and ready to go, Neto's onto another stage of his peak, Adell can finally power-hit in the majors, now Grayson Rodriguez has a place to pitch, Logan O'Hoppe looks to have a strong year, Soler's healthy. If all goes according to plan, the Angels could surprise some people. But in a division with the Mariners, A's and Astros, will they be able to get anything done?

-Has the injury bug already doomed the Braves before the year can even get going? Yesterday Spencer Strider was announced as an injured piece. The team already knew they'd be without Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Ha-Seong Kim and Joey Wentz for a while. This team also has Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Martin Perez on it. And Ronald Acuna is back, but who knows if he'll be at full capacity this year. Even if there's more reinforcements this year with that possibility in mind, will they have enough to keep them in the mix all year, or will they be running on fumes by August once again?

Will the White Sox finally lap the Twins in a battle for least inept team in the AL Central? Believe me, the White Sox have had a nice head start and had some truly terrible seasons, but the Pohlads completely have up and the Twins now consist of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and a bag of chips. Even with strong second-year infielder Luke Keaschall gearing up for a more dominant full season, the Twins don't have much at all this year. Pablo Lopez is hurt, none of the young core has developed, Royce Lewis still spends 2 months on the IL every year. Do the Twins have enough accumulated to outdo the White Sox's smarty-built younger squad?

-Are the Rockies looking at another year firmly on the bottom? I don't really see any evidence that suggests otherwise. Some of these rookies look decent, Kyle Karros and Chase Dollander and Zac Veen, plus the possibility of Charlie Condon and Roc Riggio sometime soon. But man, there really is nothing to this team, even still. And they have to play a ton of games against the Dodgers and Padres. Will there be anything at all that will be seen as an improvement by year's end?

-How off-kilter is the Nationals rotation going to be? In years' past it's been pretty straightforward, the young core of MacKenzie Gore, Mitch Parker, Jake Irvin and D.J. Herz, plus assistance from Trevor Williams. Now it's taken a turn. Josiah Gray was set to make his comeback after 2 years of injuries, but apparently that's not happening for a while. So what's left? Is Cade Cavalli ace material? Does Miles Mikolas have anything left? Did the other 29 teams pass on Zack Littell for any specific reason? Is Foster Griffin a viable MLB option? And is there any place for Cole Irvin, and eventually Herz and Parker, on this shifting team?

-What are the Rays getting at now? At last they get a working core, with Caminero, Aranda and Lowe all propelling them forward, and then Lowe, Mangum, Fairbanks, Josh Lowe and Baz all end up elsewhere. Is it possible that the Rays were closer to competing before than they are now? Even with Chandler Simpson, Carson Williams and Ben Williamson looking to make strides this year, the holes are apparent. If the Rays actually wanted to build a team without needing to save money, they definitely had the opportunity to. Will this season, and an impending lockout, give the Rays any incentive whatsoever to attempt to build a perennial competitor?

Just food for thought, I suppose. Tomorrow night we kick this whole thing off.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Red Sox

 

At long last, the Boston Red Sox, in Alex Cora's second tenure as manager, finally found a winning formula. All it took was trading away Rafael Devers.

Trevor Story finally had a healthy year, and gave the Sox what they'd been waiting for. The rookies, including Roman Anthony and Connelly Early, sought to eventually inherit the team by flashing cool MLB moments. Masataka Yoshida cemented his status as the ultimate Yankee-killer. Alex Bregman had a year so good it might land him a contract away from Boston. And it all led to a playoff berth, culminating in a suitably-strong Yanks-Sox series, one that ultimately resulted in a New York win.

The biggest triumph of all was getting a Cy Young caliber season out of Garrett Crochet. I initially questioned the Sox's choice to trade so much of their future to Chicago on the basis of one strong season from Crochet, itself marred by limited innings down the stretch. I was worried that the second Garrett Crochet got to Boston, he'd get hurt and render the deal pointless. Even in making a custom in March, I was very skeptical of how long the Sox would be able to savor this deal. Therefore, I apologize for doubting both parties. I whipped up a much better Crochet custom, one definitely befitting of his terrific 2025 season. 

Because there were so many ripe targets to customize this year, and because I was out of commission for a lot of the summer, I didn't even get to doing one of Brayan Bello, who had another really nice year as a Sox starter. It's weird to say this but Bello finally got a season ERA below 4, and went 11-9 with a 3.35 ERA over 28 starts. He'll be 27 next year, and the future's looking pretty bright.

2026 Prediction: Sub-3 ERA, Cy Young votes, ASG nod.

There were two ex-White Sox heroes who signed 2-year deals with the Sox before the 2024 season only to sit the season out entirely, both finally pitching for them this year. One of them was former White Sox hero Lucas Giolito, who blew his arm out midway through the 2023 season [as the Angels found out the hard way], and recovered all last year. His stuff in 2025 was pretty good, he went 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA and 121 Ks over 26 starts. Slightly limited due to making sure his arm didn't fall apart, but a much nicer showing.

2026 Prediction: Tigers sign him to a 1-year deal, he misses two months but ekes out a crucial postseason win for them.

The other ex-Chicago pitcher to finally play a healthy[-ish] season for the Sox this year was Liam Hendriks, the beloved Australian closer. Hendriks has still been recovering from both arm injuries and cancer treatments, and his 14-game run this year seemed to indicate the majority of his strong stuff wasn't there, with a 6.59 ERA and 2 losses. At the very least, he fulfilled his end of the bargain as best he could.

2026 Prediction: Retires.

At the very least, perennial Boston bullpen piece Garrett Whitlock had a healthier year this year, mostly because he wasn't being relied upon to start games. He was the top reliever in the 'pen this year, with a 2.25 ERA and 91 Ks, plus 7 wins, in 72 innings. His best year since the breakout for sure.

2026 Prediction: Knowing Whitlock this year will be a major step down.

In a long line of excellent Red Sox bench guys, Rob Refsnyder has been everything this team has needed him to be and more since joining the team in 2022. All he needs to do is show up, occasionally start, and be relied upon for the odd clutch hit. This year in 70 games he hit .269 with 9 homers, 30 RBIs and an .838 OPS. 

2026 Prediction: When I wrote this post, I did not see anyone other than the Red Sox signing him, as I did not think Refsnyder wanted to play anywhere else. But to be perfectly honest, the Mariners NEED a bench guy like Refsnyder, since Dylan Moore and Mitch Garver didn't work. I think Refsnyder will ultimately work in Seattle, but I want to stress that they got him as a depth option. Hopefully he doesn't end up stuck as a starting option.

One of the big developments of the Red Sox' 2025 season was the emphasis on bringing in the rookies and giving them chances to be the star. Kristian Campbell got his chance out of camp, and he was just the beginning. Hunter Dobbins got to start some games after the Red Sox realized that Sean Newcomb starting games wasn't a good idea, and in 13 starts he had a 4.13 ERA with 45 Ks and a 4-1 record. The most infamous detail of Dobbins' season was that he went 2-0 against the Yankees, including going 6 innings against them only allowing 2 hits. Dobbins eventually made a comment that he'd sooner retire than play for the Yankees. After this, he got beaten up by the Giants, missed a month, then had to miss the rest of the season due to a torn ACL. Karmic retribution, perhaps.

2026 Prediction: Even before the Contreras deal I figured he’d be traded, just from how much rotation overhead the Sox currently possess. St. Louis has much more room, and though I’m not sure if he’ll be opening day ready, he’s got a good chance of being a stretch savior even if the Cardinals miss again.

Marcelo Mayer was the second of the three big Sox rookies to come up this year, easing in at third a tad as Alex Bregman missed time. Mayer's 44 games in the bigs were very okay- he hit .228 with 4 homers and 10 RBIs. Eventually he was brought back down to make room for Bregman again.

2026 Prediction: So, uh...Bregman's not coming back. Everybody knows it, except maybe Bregman himself. There will be an opening at third, and Mayer will be ready. I think he's gonna have a huge season next year, though maybe not as huge as another Sox rookie:

Of the three call-ups in the lineup, Roman Anthony was the one who got fans the most excited. Biggest prospect, biggest offensive perk, highest ceiling. At a certain point this season, Anthony was looking like so much of a sure thing that the Sox were trying to shop Jarren Duran. Anthony, in 71 games, hit .292 with an .859 OPS, with 8 homers and 32 RBIs. It was a very confident MLB audition, one that would have garnered more ROY votes had Anthony not gotten hurt mid-August.

2026 Prediction: Get those posters up on Yawkey Way. Crochet. Story. Anthony right in the middle. This guy's the future, and the future's gonna kick in big time next year.

The Sox made some minor moves at the deadline, mostly supplanting the pitching staff. In a move that still confuses me, the Sox got Dustin May from LA, looking to...LIGHTEN their starting load. Yes, they still won it all, but I think May could have helped. He got 6 games in Boston before getting hurt, and went 1-4 with a 5.40 ERA. 

2026 Prediction: Rebounds slightly with St. Louis but unless he plans on figuring out how to stay healthy for all 7 months, it's not gonna really matter.

Meanwhile, after having a tremendous season as a swingman and reliever with the Cardinals, Steven Matz landed on the Sox for a similar reason for the stretch. In 21 games, Matz had a 2.08 ERA, with a 0.877 WHIP. Nobody was getting past this guy this year. He went scoreless against the Yanks in the playoffs as well.

2026 Prediction: Well, now the Rays are gonna figure out how to work with him. My guess is they start him, he's great, they trade him for prospects and then he gets hurt again.

Coming Tomorrow- The Reds, similarly, broke through and made it to the playoffs after years of trying. It didn't end well for them. 

Wild Card Series Day 3: Scores Settled?

 

A lot of 'was this trip really necessary?' outcomes for the wild card round. Lot of teams just beating the lower seed. The only 'upset' came from the team that had led the division the whole year beating the team that won it in the last few games. Still some intriguing baseball games to get us there but it's very much calling into question of the reason for expanding the playoffs, aside from 'to give teams the ownership group likes a chance'. Though...considerably less of that than in 2020 or 2022. A lot like Survivor instituting a final four tiebreaker to ensure the winner they want only for the people they like in the last several seasons to be shit at making fire.

The Tigers were able to win against the Guardians in October, after...not really being able to do so in September. They did it with contact, like RBIs from Wenceel Perez, Kerry Carpenter, Spencer Torkelson and Riley Greene. The only real long ball was an inconsequential one from Dillon Dingler. The Tigers did almost spoil their win once or twice, and Spencer Torkelson's defense at 1st allowed 2 more runs to score, but they finished off Cleveland simply by being a better-developed team than them, and promptly punched their ticket to Seattle. Right now the Mariners are the favorites, which is a weird thing to say considering how well the Tigers were playing in June, but with Skubal on the mound anything's possible.

The Guardians were over a dozen games out of 1st at the beginning of September and still made the playoffs. That alone is an accomplishment. They were able to take the division with a wildly depleted team, led by a ton of rookies and unsung guys, and still pose a threat to the Tigers in a wild card series. That they didn't completely get the job done is sad, but understandable. The heroes yesterday were guys like George Valera, a rookie outfielder responsible for a rare earned run for Cleveland, and Chase DeLauter, the rookie prospect who got his first hit in the postseason, and Brayan Rocchio, who finished the season making up for all the time he wasn't hitting in the first 5 months. They will be back stronger, better developed and more commandingly. 

The Cubs were the better team heading into their wild card series and were able to stave off the Padres after all, despite...being the Cubs. A lot had been made about their rough postseason luck since 2017, and they were able to erase that thanks to a home crowd, a better team and a commanding start from Jameson Taillon. If Seiya Suzuki, Pete Crow-Armstrong, Nico Hoerner and Michael Busch are gonna be great playoff pieces, they might be in for a long run. And if Jamo's a valid October option, only allowing 2 hits in 4 innings, they might have the starting depth after all. Cubs-Brewers has the potential to be the tightest series of the four, as the Brewers don't want you to know that they've actually lost steam since their insane August. Could go either way honestly. 

As for the Padres...they got here, and they fought hard, but if Tatis and Machado aren't gonna hit then there's no point in showing up. At the end, the Padres were starting fights with the umps, saying they took the series from them. No. The Cubs were better and you couldn't hit them. Don't try and blame the system. One of the few Padres to actually show up this series was Freddy Fermin, the catcher they traded for to ensure they actually had a decent option back there. Fermin went 4-for-11 this postseason, hitting .364. The goal is for the rest of the team to show up as well. Jackson Merrill getting a late homer isn't gonna be enough. Next year it may be tougher for them to catch the Dodgers unless they really put the effort in.

As for my Yankees...what else can you say but 'wow'? Cam Schlittler getting Game 3 was a risk, and it paid off in dramatic fashion. The man went 8 innings, striking out 12, allowing no runs and no walks. It was a masterful performance, made even crazier by the fact that Schlittler was nearing 100mph for most of the night and was hitting 97 in the 8th. Nobody could hit this guy, and nobody could hit the bullpen either. The Yankees won this game by completely silencing a very tough Red Sox team, and remembering to contact-hit when they could. And again, the guys we got midyear, like Amed Rosario, David Bednar and Ryan McMahon, were the true difference maker. Very proud of these guys, and hopefully they can regain momentum in Toronto.

Connelly Early didn't do terribly badly himself, he struck out 6 through 4, but the problem with the Sox starting Nathaniel Lowe and Romy Gonzalez is that the errors that the Yankees' infield worked to avoid are gonna happen. That 4th inning illuminated just how unfit defensively this Sox team was for this moment, and they failed Connelly Early. The Red Sox were very close to winning this series and shocking everyone, and for the first time since 2003 they simply couldn't stop the Yankees. 

I assume they'll be back, bigger and badder, with their big 3 next year, and that'll be...fun. For now, we've got 4 fun looking series scheduled for this weekend. Still a lot of teams I really enjoy in the mix, so I'm enjoying this.