Last Gasp of the Sleeper Picks

 

It's wild, after everything that has traversed this season, that the Tigers and Cubs have...palpable shots at making the playoffs. It's not a guarantee in either case, but they're both close. As I write this, the Tigers are  3 games back from the Twins' playoff spot, while the Cubs are 5 games back from the Mets' spot. If something were to go wrong with teams above the line, these two teams could sneak their way in.

In the case of the Tigers, the momentum they've gained in the last several weeks could constitute a random October journey. Considering that these guys were sellers at the deadline, and gave up Jack Flaherty and Mark Canha, nobody really expected them to factor much into the rest of the season. They were kinda dead in June, Javier Baez was still taking up roster space, Torkelson still wasn't working, it was a mess. And then right at the beginning of August something clicked. There were a lot of roster moves, things switched around, people who weren't working were demoted, etc. And then...with a cleaner, more confident outlook, the Tigers just started winning games. 

I think the biggest catalyst for the rise in Tigers success has been production from the young players who'd lay despondent for so long. I think Parker Meadows started the season with a .059 average, then after being brought back midyear he went on a tear, he now has a .733 OPS and is one of the flashiest offensive producers on the team. Colt Keith had his big August, he's probably gonna finish the season with the 2nd-most RBIs of anyone on the team. Torkelson's even doing better now, he's got 35 RBIs and 8 homers. The bullpen improved, with Tyler Holton, Jason Foley and Will Vest returning to April levels of dominance. This kid Brant Hurter, who nearly no-hit the O's the other night, could be something, too. 

On the other hand, while the Cubs are further from the wild card spot than Detroit, they may have, like last year, evolved into a fully competent team as the season heads into its final series'. It took the Cubs forever to really find a working formula, and then you cut to now and Swanson, Bellinger, Suzuki, Taillon, Amaya--all doing well. Even Pete Crow-Armstrong, who's clearly had his offensive struggles, is beginning to put a competent rookie campaign together. In addition to 44 RBIs, 8 homers and 26 steals, he's an elite outfielder with killer speed. He's had several big game moments so far this year, and he's very much coming into his own in the majors. I also think it's wild that Christian Bethancourt's hitting .300 with the Cubs after barely hitting with Miami, but he honestly goes at his own pace. 

The Cubs have been building for longer, winning bigger and winning with more of an exclamation point. I sum up their cutthroat mindset this year by the speed in which they brought over Jorge Lopez after he defected from New York and Shawn Armstrong after the Cardinals game up, and how quickly they both became bullpen standouts for them. This is a deceptively strong Cubs team, and even if they have a longer road to a postseason spot than the Tigers, as theirs involves lapping Atlanta, it could still happen. Any of this could.

If the Tigers and Cubs make the playoffs and the Braves and Twins don't...that might be the first sign of some regime changes in the league. Yes, the Astros, Dodgers, Yankees and Guardians are all getting in, but if the little teams are moving up, their days could be numbered.

Coming Tomorrow (?): A young fireballer helps wrap things up in the Bay Area. 

His & Herz

 

When you're talking about a decidedly noncompetitive team, you have to look for the people that may not have the biggest statistical advantage but the bones are there. I think about when Robbie Ray was with the Diamondbacks, back when they were bad. There was one year where I think he led the league in losses but still struck everybody out. Same with Sandy Alcantara a few years ago, he was losing a ton of games, but you can't really blame him. Sometimes it's not you, it's just the team you're playing for.

The Nationals have four very good pitchers with sub-.500 W/L ratios that have held things up this season [and also Patrick Corbin]. I can see MacKenzie Gore, Jake Irvin, Mitchell Parker and D.J. Herz being real standouts in a version of this team that isn't mediocre. Hell, if Josiah Gray is back next year, in full force, he could be the fifth man that makes that rotation into a powerhouse. 

Looking at D.J. Herz this year, you can definitely see how good he'd look if he had a better team behind him. He's 4-7, but he has a 3.70 ERA and 98 Ks through his first 17 MLB starts. Herz was one of the guys the Nats got from Chicago in the deal that sent Jeimer Candelario to the Cubs, and seeing that Candelario is currently hurt on a different NL Central roster, Herz is looking like the better end of the deal. He's strong, imposing, reliable, consistent and strikes people out. He's also a pretty unique type of pitcher, there's not a ton of people out there who lunge at you blonde and red-faced. Like you're being attacked by Ian Ziering. 

This year alone, the Nats have called up Mitchell Parker, D.J. Herz, James Wood, Jose Tena, Trey Lipscomb, Andres Chaparro, Dylan Crews and Darren Baker. That could be the makings of the next generation of Nationals baseball. It's similar to the Orioles in the past few years, where you'd blink and then Rutschman, Henderson, Hall and Rodriguez would all be up in the majors. Well, now Dylan Crews and James Wood are 2/3rds of the Nationals outfield, and both are doing alright. Not full levels of dominance yet [like C.J. Abrams], but they've hit well enough to remain at the MLB level. Which is a very good thing for the future of this franchise.

I honestly think the Nats might have enough to compete next year. They only need one or two slight retoolings, and maybe some small free agency pieces like Adam Frazier who'd transition into support roles when everything worked out. The bulk of the youth movement is up, and hopefully they'll be helping this team along pretty soon.

Coming Tomorrow- For two years running he's been one of the best relief specialists in Detroit, which is honestly saying something. 

Lowe Point

 

A three game sweep from the Philadelphia Phillies?? That's what I'm talking about! Ladies and gentlemen, you are not gonna have to worry about the Rays this postseason! Savor the moment, the one team that constantly refuses to pay people [except if they're bigoted or committing felonies] won't be taking home the gold this year! And looking around at this team, they don't really deserve to either.

Now I want to just make something clear, because I'm pretty sure I've been spiteful towards the Rays all season, and it's been thanks to the same few bullet points, that they trade people away instead of paying them, and a bunch of their relievers boycotted pride month, and they're always good despite not actually building a team the way they're supposed to, and they always have a top 5 farm system for some reason. And I'm aware of this. I don't like consistently bagging on a team like this, and I try not to unless they deserve it. But it's the Astros and Rays that just really test me sometimes, and just consistently do things I don't like.

Now, are there good things about this Rays team? Of course. Actually getting to see Taj Bradley, Ryan Pepiot, Shane Baz and Zach Littell perform well at the MLB level has been great. I kinda wish they'd all be healthy at the same time but that seems to be the issue league wide this year. I think both Yandy Diaz and Jose Caballero are really entertaining players, and add a lot to the league. And I genuinely think this team has something with both Christopher Morel and Junior Caminero, even if it hasn't hit immediately. Plus, once they get their new stadium in St. Petersburg, I'm gonna try to go. I bet it'll be a really nice place to watch a game.

So, yes, there are some good things about the Rays. Several even. And I try to emphasize that. But when a reliever that hasn't given up many runs at all this year gives up a bunch, then retaliates by plunking the next hitter up at back and expecting it to just go fine, then I get mad. Why would anybody do that? Edwin Uceta was doing GREAT. He was having a phenomenal year. He has one bad night, and instead of actually rising above it and moving on, he hits Nick Castellanos and gets Bryce Harper within seconds of punching him out. This is what I mean! The Rays just owe themselves to this kind of energy. They could be a decent, decidedly watchable sort of underdog team, but instead several of their players make conscious decisions to piss me off, and go beyond any sort of moral reasoning. It happened with Springs, it happened with Franco, it's happened now. 

And it makes it so much harder when somebody decent like Josh Lowe hits his stride. Lowe took a while to become healthy this year but he has 30 RBIs and 9 homers in 91 games. Jonny Deluca is similarly having a rise in productivity as a bench bat. But like...for every guy like that there's someone like Taylor Walls, who's great defensively but can't hit, or Ben Rortvedt, who's an efficient player with no pop. It's both dull and infuriating sometimes. They'll have a big win over a good team and they'll get it by having a nobody do something incredible, and that's just the plan.

The Rays, with several changes, could become likable again to me. I just don't feel like they really want to. And so we'll keep doing this dance, I suppose.

Coming Tonight (?): The second truly great starter the Nationals called up this year.

The D-Backs' Revenge Mission

 

This is actually perfect for Friday the 13th. Any horror movie, you think the evil's defeated, and you know deep down that the killer's gonna be back in a year or so anyway. Jason Voorhees never dies, or at the very least never gives up. And so, when the Rangers vanquished the Diamondbacks last year, they probably assumed that'd be the end of it. Wild Card team catches fire late, takes out everybody, that won't happen again, right?

Well...here we are, month before the playoffs, the D-Backs have a nice handle on a wild card spot, so many guys who were struggling early have heated up big time, the rotation looks fuller than last year's, the lineup has way more strong points than last year's, and that crazy momentum is starting to build again. And what's more, the team's last three wins have been BIG wins against the two teams who competed in the ALCS last year. The next few series they have will be against the Brewers, who just got crushed by San Francisco, the Rockies, and the Brewers again. And they have the momentum. 

So...for those of you who were thinking the Diamondbacks were just gonna let 2023 be a fluke? Not so simple.

To me it's kind of welcome, because unlike other surprise momentum teams, the bones have always been there. Even when the D-Backs were struggling earlier this year, they still had Ketel Marte, Zac Gallen, Christian Walker and Joc Pederson playing extremely well. Gaining Perdomo, Corbin's power bat, Kelly and Bell only sweetened the deal. And now the team is benefitting from another late season tear from Eugenio Suarez, who has 28 home runs and is 8 away from an 100 RBI year. Suarez is notoriously fickle, which was something that infuriated Reds fans even after his monster power years, but when he's on he's unstoppable. He came through big time last year for Seattle, and it's happening again for Arizona. There is a nonzero percent chance that Geno crosses the 300 home run mark next year, which is something that sounds insane...til you remember, oh yeah, he's hit over 30 homers in a season 4 times already, and he's going for #5 right now. 

Having a guy like that on the D-Backs, in addition to, y'know, Walker and Bell and Pederson and Carroll, that's scary. Like, that's a TON of career power hitters. And oh, of course the guy leading the team in home runs is actually Ketel Marte, an all-around contact phenom who also occasionally goes yard, and his having another consecutive OMG year. And then you have bench guys like Pavin Smith and Randal Grichuk who can also have excellent power moments. It's not really much of a question how this team's taken off like this, it's more like 'how far can they go' at this point.

The D-Backs are currently in sole position of the top Wild Card spot, meaning they're likely looking at a playoff series against the Padres if current trends continue. I assume those will be really evenly matched, and it may not especially come easy for Arizona. But...this is the kind of team that could go on another run if the stars allow for it, so just be prepared for that possibility.

Coming Tomorrow- A strong outfield bat for a team that just got trounced from the playoff picture.

Belated Reinforcements

 

This week alone, the Rangers will be starting Kumar Rocker, Max Scherzer and Jacob deGrom. Rocker will be making his first start of his MLB career, deGrom will be making his first start of the 2024 season, and Scherzer will be making his first start since July. Perhaps if things had gone better for the Rangers this season, this trio rejoining the squad would mean something other than 'oh, well that's helpful I guess'.

But as it stands, this trio of hurlers will be joining a Rangers team with no chance of making the playoffs, too many injured pieces, and too much riding on them to stick it out til the end of the season. Hell, Rocker will likely be taking the rotation spot of his old Vandy teammate Jack Leiter, who was beginning to improve as a starter but just isn't 100% reliable yet. The fact that with all these great pitchers on this Rangers team, there's really three vacancies with this far to go, that's...not really something that should be happening to a team that just won the World Series last year. And even with these three returning, there's still worries that either A.) Eovaldi could miss time again, B.) deGrom could immediately need to be returned to the IL, or C.) Rocker doesn't have it yet. Meaning, folks, Jose Urena starting in September is a real possibility here.

I think the disappointment of this team can be summed up with Adolis Garcia, who was coming off several really strong years. This year he has 22 homers, 74 RBIs and is batting .219, which, despite the power numbers, is a really imbalanced, off-target year for a guy who routinely vied for 100 RBIs. Even his outfield arm is seeing a slight downturn, which, as he's 31, is somewhat understandable. It just feels like he just hit his prime, and he's just arrived as a perennial hitter, and now he's slowing down. You have to hope that he rebounds next year, because if not, it just proves how much is being lost when people are getting brought up at like 28. 

You also have to figure that a lot of people might leave next year. Heaney, Scherzer, Yates, Jankowski, possibly even Eovaldi. So even if that does leave space for Rocker, Dunning and Leiter in the rotation...they all have to, like, pitch well as well. Dunning got his chance this year, his ERA rose above 5 and now he's back in the minors. Leiter fared similarly. There is a nice chance that, like with most years of Bochy ball, a year of not making it will inspire an even bigger rise the following year, and if that's the case...maybe all of this squandering the moment will have been worth it.

Coming Tonight: This guy always seems to catch fire right when you've written him off. As he has once again this year.

Instability Killed the Reds

 

When they were up in the majors, Hunter Greene, Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder all displayed excellent skills, had untouchable starts, and instilled confidence in Reds fans. Now the trick, I gather, is getting them all to be healthy at the same time. Because this current strategy, of getting a rotation together only for someone to get hurt and needing to find a replacement, for the SECOND YEAR RUNNING, is not it.

And that is ultimately the issue of employing so many pitchers who consistently overthrow and go for high speeds consistently. Greene is one of the deadliest pitchers in the league, but he may never go for a full season without compromising his fastball. Abbott and Lodolo also had nice runs this season but, again, all that hard throwing is not a sustainable strategy. They just NOW got Brandon Williamson back, and while he's been really good in his first couple starts, that was 5 whole months where he wasn't on the table, so it only means so much that he's here now, while everybody's hurt and there's no playoff chances.

Rhett Lowder was honestly the 'well if the whole season's a wash, let's at least fill seats' tactic. Lowder, despite being picked 6 spots lower than Paul Skenes, has gotten some comparisons to the Pirates hurler, and blazed through the Reds' minor league system in a year's time. In his first three starts, Lowder has a 0.59 ERA, a 1-1 record and 12 Ks. He's not the full strikeout artist that Skenes is [yet], but he's eerily on-target and just doesn't score many runs. He is the kind of efficiency that the Reds desperately need right now, and if everybody else is gonna fluctuate and be on and off the IL, Lowder really needs to condition himself properly to keep off the IL. 

I also wonder about how many extra starters the Reds are gonna keep around next year as depth options. Nick Martinez is definitely an option, seeing as he's been extremely helpful down the stretch this year. Julian Aguiar could be the taxi guy, keep him in Louisville unless like 2 guys drop. Carson Spiers could be a trade candidate at this point, unless the Reds really have a plan with him. And then maybe the Reds sign a swing guy just in case, someone who can be a beast as a long relief man but could start if the opportunity came up. Somebody like Bryse Wilson or Drew Smyly or possibly even the return of Jakob Janis. It's time to be smart about this, because if not, they get caught with their pants down for the third year in a row if the rotation all get hurt.

You also saw the Reds underprepare for lineup injuries. Both Matt McLain and CES got hurt early, resulting in both Noelvi Marte trying his best post-suspension, the wheel of free agent signings like Dominic Smith and Ty France, and Jeimer Candelario, who was hot for a month then got hurt. Stuart Fairchild, clearly the depth OF guy, tellingly got a lot of playing time this year, and...while he's fine and all, you could tell that being without Friedl and Fraley for a bit did severely wound the outfield. The Reds are extremely lucky they got a full season of Elly de la Cruz, and that it was such a satisfying one. I just hope he continues amazing people as the Reds themselves improve, perhaps with more contingency plans and better injury luck in general.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the most dangerous outfield arms in baseball, even if his bat has been hit or miss this year.

Still Smooth

 

Carlos Santana has hit 322 home runs in 15 seasons. I think a lot of people forget that.

Obviously the one they call Slamtana isn't exactly gonna be in much consideration for the Hall of Fame in six or seven years, but he's played in a World Series, started an All-Star Game, has four 25+ homer seasons, and is one of the rare players to actually improve defensively as his career goes on. Moving him from catcher to first was a wise move by Cleveland, as it lengthened Santana's career and allowed him to blossom into a routinely-above-average 1st baseman with power perks. Santana rarely got hurt, is perhaps responsible for two down years in his whole career, and is still playing, and hitting home runs, at 38. 

In an era of baseball where everyone's coming up at 25 and actually starting consistently at 27, then getting hurt for consecutive seasons, that's all too rare. Not many hitters are as consistent and reliable as Santana, which is wild, because Santana is a professional power hitter. Those are known for wear and tear. Yet here Santana is in Minnesota, with a .751 OPS [his highest since 2019], 63 RBIs and 21 homers. He's close to notching his fifth career 25+ homer year, and he's doing it with a team that, at most, was expecting him to be a DH piece this year. But y'know, Kirilloff got hurt, Larnach is best at DH, Santana's still decent on defense, so sure let's...have 38-year old Carlos Santana be our everyday first baseman. And SOMEHOW...this has worked really well for them! I'm amazed!

I think I just find it interesting that this is a moment where Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Max Kepler, the three most integral hitters on the team arguably, are all hurt, the playoff race is coming down to just a few games, and the Twins are desperately hanging onto the last playoff spot, and a lot of the load is falling on Carlos Santana's shoulders, and it's working out. And that's why this Twins team is so good this year, because in the absence of those guys, people like Jose Miranda, Matt Wallner, Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach and Willi Castro are coming to the rescue and keeping the team together. Pablo Lopez has had a wonderful month, and he's now 15-8 with a 3.88 ERA and 183 Ks, another excellent season for the hurler. Griffin Jax is putting together one of the top relief seasons of the year, with a 2.01 ERA in 65 appearances. 

The depth going on in this Twins team, which was not always this good, is keeping them a contender. And there's also the threat that these guys who are hurt now will be back for a playoff run, if one happens. This is a very different kind of Twins team than the previous ones to advance to the postseason, even from last season. And hopefully they can surprise some people again this year.

Coming Tonight: And to think, if Brandon Williamson had been ready just a week earlier, we wouldn't have been able to see this guy succeed at the MLB level this year. 

The Myth of Another Homegrown Mets Ace

 

In 2016, the New York Mets had multiple pitchers that came specifically through their system that were succeeding for them. Matt Harvey was still in his prime, Jacob deGrom was right about to catch absolute fire, Steven Matz was just getting started himself. Thor and Wheeler were acquired in trades, that's been well reported, but even with Bartolo Colon hanging around, what made the mid-2010s rotation fresh is that so much of it was homegrown, and so much felt like the Mets had earned it themselves.

Right now, there are two former Mets pitching products with genuine Cy Young cases. Neither of them are playing for the Mets. So that's where we are now.

The Wheeler thing I don't blame the Mets for. Zach Wheeler spent so much time injured that once he did hit his prime and become a league talent, he was no longer really wanting to stay in New York, and Philly just had the better offer. But Seth Lugo is gonna be something people look at for a while. Because at any point in his six or so years in New York, they could have started him. They just repeatedly chose not to. And then the moment a team decides to start him, he hits his potential and now with the Royals he's one of the best pitchers of the year. If things get managed differently, Wheeler and Lugo hit their primes in New York, and possibly deGrom even sticks around. But instead...deGrom's making his comeback in Arlington, Wheeler's helping Philly get back to the playoffs, Lugo's a part of a huge Royals team, and the Mets' rotation consists of people like Sean Manaea, Jose Quintana and Luis Severino.

Yet this year, the Mets do have a homegrown starter with a 9-2 record, so that's a step in the right direction.

David Peterson was one of those guys who I wasn't sure if he was ever gonna happen. Mets fans had been excited about this guy for a while, and then he'd get to the majors and do nothing. Lather, rinse repeat. And now in his fifth MLB season, at 28, he's finally having a breakout year. He's 9-2, has a 2.98 ERA and 83 Ks. He's been solid, consistent, reliable and a welcome source of stability after Joey Lucchesi and Christian Scott flamed out. Tylor Megill has also been decent recently, filling in for Paul Blackburn, but I really don't think he's ever gonna show any actual consistency, because the second he starts doing well something terrible happens, and this is every year at this point.

The Mets, meanwhile, have to be thankful for pieces like Peterson, as they're still looking like a surprise favorite for a playoff spot. Right now the Mets and Braves are still deadlocked, and though for a while today's Mets game was looking like a sad sight, eventually Lindor and Alvarez prevailed and made it possible for a potential lap. The Braves have the slightly easier schedule this week, considering that the Mets now have to head to Philly, but the Mets have seen Francisco Lindor, Pete Alonso, Jose Iglesias and Mark Vientos go from questionable to surging, and right now they're on their best tear since the initial Grimace takeoff. 

It's not 100% certain that the Mets completely take advantage of this, but if it happens it could lead to an absolutely bonkers playoff campaign for these guys. 

Coming Tomorrow- I never thought when he came up with Cleveland that he'd still be playing, and still be a really reliable hitter, at 38.

Many Such Casas

So. The Red Sox' lead over the other AL Wild Card competitors has diminished. And now the Sox, Mariners and Tigers all have the same record, and are all waiting for the Twins to fall so that there's even the slightest chance of sneaking in. Now, as they say, it's a party.

The Red Sox, this year, have been one of the best okay teams in the bigs. At no point this year did they have any shot at first...but they were never a shoo-in for last either. They seemed to get over debilitating injuries fine, having David Hamilton and Dominic Smith cover for Trevor Story and Triston Casas, then got 'em both back by September. They're responsible for a Rookie of the Year candidate in Wilyer Abreu and a potential MVP candidate in Jarren Duran. They've held the same rotation for the majority of the year, and have kept behind Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford and Brayan Bello that whole time. Yet, at the same time, their bullpen is more 'fine' than good, 4 guys have over 130 strikeouts, and three starters have sub-.500 W/L ratios, including Houck. This is a very good team that, to me, is missing a dimension or two.

Yet, at the same time, you know who this Red Sox' team's key players are now. You know how much revolves around Duran, Casas, Devers, Abreu, Rafaela, Houck and Bello now, and those guys have proved they're consistent performers. So next year, knowing how good this team was at this point, there's so much more potential for improvement. The Yankees and Orioles may have dominated the AL East this year, but the Sox could be right back in it with them next year, if they don't end up sneaking in this month. 

Casas and Story's returns have been a nice boost though. Casas has 8 homers and 19 RBIs in 45 games, and has retaken 1st without much lag. Story has gotten a hit in each of his first 3 games back, and has an RBI as well. The team has lost a bit of ground, hence the other guys catching up, but just won big against the O's, and may look to keep doing so. After that, it's games agains the Yankees, Rays, Twins and Jays, so the road to a postseason berth is lined specifically with teams that put the Sox' status as a potential competitor into question. They're a good team, I just don't know if they're good enough yet, but we'll know once we're far enough into this last stretch of theirs.

Also...the humor in this team releasing Rich Hill, known to his friends as Dick Mountain, in favor of a reliever named Richard Fitts is....genuinely incredible. I hope they're in on the joke.

Coming Tonight: Of ALL PEOPLE to become the standout of the Mets rotation, I don't think anyone was expecting this guy.

Seconds to Spare

 

Sometimes the MLB schedule lines up crucial series in consequential points on the map. For instance, right now the Mariners, who are 3 games removed from a wild card spot, have to play the Padres, who have a wild card spot and are trying to hang onto it as the Mets grow nearer. Winning and losing this series could dictate the direction of the remainder of the season for both teams. 

They didn't know that when they made the schedule. Yet here we are.

The Mariners, after looking hopeless for a good month or so, are actually in a decent position. They're 4.5 games behind the Astros for the division, which isn't ideal, yet they're 3 games behind the Twins for the last wild card spot, which initially seemed too out of reach for them. Around August 22, the Mariners turned a corner and actually started hitting, and have been 9-7 ever since, with only an Angels series looking like a mar on the record. Very helpful have been the additions of Randy Arozarena and Justin Turner, who've both had several hero moments already after coming over at the deadline. 

Equally helpful, though, has been the progressions of many hitters who've been on the team the whole time and are only now starting to hit. Luke Raley was very much a background presence in the first half, maybe he'd have some power moments, they wouldn't come often. Now he has the highest OPS on the team with .764, which only newer members Robles and Arozarena have topped. He's got 18 homers and 49 RBIs, and he's been especially on target this month, where he's hit .308 in 7 September games with 6 RBIs and 2 homers. Having Raley, Jorge Polanco and Julio Rodriguez hitting now, despite earlier weak spots, is a good thing, and having a fuller, more reliable lineup gives this team everything it needs to compete.

But one of the things standing in their way is this Padres series, as the Padres are a very good team with arguably more momentum than they have now. The hitting was never a problem for the Padres this year, as what was already good in May with Jurickson Profar, Jackson Merrill and Fernando Tatis is now even better with Machado, Bogaerts and Higgy all hitting. Jake Cronenworth, I think, may still disappoint people who want him to be the versatile utility contact guy he was when he came up, and seeing as he's already 30 despite debuting in 2020, he only has a handful of peak years left as it stands. But the slow pivot to power bat isn't the worth thing for Cronenworth, as his 16 homers and 78 RBIs are a very good show of offense, even if he's really not the best defender anymore. Arraez, Cronenworth and Donovan Solano are all having weak defensive seasons, but they are, in fact, all hitting well, which helps.

The Padres also have the important factor of having hydra-like regenerative abilities. Ha-Seong Kim got hurt last month, so the team went to rookie Mason McCoy, who's held his own as an infield replacement. Right when the rotation was getting hairy, Yu Darvish came back and continued his extremely strong 30s work. Jason Adam, Bryan Hoeing and Tanner Scott have made the bullpen possibly the best in the league. Hell, this team didn't even lose much ground when Tatis got hurt. They've got excellent depth, so many reinforcements, and have retained momentum excellently.

The Padres have a level of consistency this year that the Mariners wish they have, but the Mariners have the better pitching staff and are dangerous in the clutch. No matter how this series goals, it'll definitely have ramifications on just how both seasons end.

Coming Tomorrow- Red Sox fans were sad when Dominic Smith was released, but the man who replaced him made this sadness pretty short-lived.

Missouri Loves Company

 

Paul deJong vexes me. He always has, and I'm pretty sure he always will at this rate. 

For a few years, with the Cardinals, he was a consistent, surprising infield bat, with an incredible 2019 season, defensive perks, and an ability to hit for power. Then after a while he completely fell off, and for a few years he just...couldn't get a damned thing done at the plate. The Cardinals cut him last year, he bopped along, wound up starting for the last place White Sox this year and doing well, then was surprise upgrade by the Royals. And at that point he starts playing amazingly and supplanting a killer playoff case.

Now...I may be pulling this out of my ass. But Paul deJong fell apart around the same time the Cardinals did, bided his time and wound up on a much better, upwardly rising Missouri team. Perhaps this was his plan all along. 

With the Royals, deJong has become a flexible, versatile infield bat, who's already hitting .244 with 6 homers and 15 RBIs. deJong is also close to his second 30-homer year, and first since 2019. He's just six away, and seeing as he hit 18 in four months it's not unheard of for him to hit another 6 this month. deJong has made for a nice platoon at third with Maikel Garcia, and has added to the Royals' infield flexibility in general, as they plug Yuli Gurriel in at 1st to cover for Vinnie Pasquantino. It feels like he has more power as a member of this unit than he did in St. Louis.

Which is funny, because the Cardinals, after years of cycling different parts and progressions of their organization around, seem to be locking in for a lot of positions. Brendan Donovan seems to be the answer at 2nd, and is having another strong season defensively. Michael Siani seems to be the answer at CF, as he had an unexpected breakout season there this year. And Jordan Walker and Victor Scott are still getting chances at the corner positions. Meaning what was going to be the feel-good Cardinals story of the year, Tommy Pham returning to hit for contact, got lopped off at the knees when Pham got DFA'd.

So now Pham's joined deJong in Kansas City, which is kinda fitting. I see them both as members of the late-2010s Cardinals regime, both were on for a while and suddenly off for even longer, both had clutch moments like you wouldn't believe. Pham's currently hitting .296 as a Royal, with 4 RBIs in 7 games. This is Pham's seventh team in three years. One might get the sense from that, as well as the fact that he picked a fight with Joc Pederson over something as silly as fantasy football, that people don't enjoy having Tommy Pham on their team, and I think the fact that he's performed WELL for all seven of those teams speaks to the contrary. Pham isn't exactly a babyface type MLB character, his heel turn was expected. But he can still contact hit like hell, and he's still a crucial piece no matter where he plays. Pham has 9 different MLB teams under his belt. He's 36 and hitting competently. I say he keeps going. 

The Cardinals are looking like they're gonna finish the year without a playoff appearance, all while across the state the Royals have enough of a youth movement, and enough pure power, to propel them to a wild card spot. It's a welcome changing of the guard, and it says more about Matt Quatraro's ability to build an inherited team than it does Oli Marmol's. 

Coming Tonight: The Rays traded him for a contact bat. Without realizing they have enough contact bats and they really should hang onto some power bats. 

Follow the Money Mike

 

The Braves and Mets, with three and a half weeks left to go, are dead even. A team that began the season with everyone, and a team that began the season a punchline, are tied in the wild card standings. The last month of the season will decide who gets the last playoff spot and gets to play a team that very well could be the Brewers in a wild card series. The stakes couldn't be higher. If the Mets lose, they managed to undo the goodwill of the entire fanbase by not making the next leap from novelty to runaway.

...whereas if the Braves lose a year after a monolithic regular season, they may never recover. If you have your best players under team control til the end of the decade, a Cy Young performance from a guy who's always been a bridesmaid his whole career, an 100-RBI season from a guy everybody wrote off, and two excellent seasons from starters who weren't even supposed to make the team, and you don't make the playoffs, then what are you even doing? 

Injuries have dulled the point of the Braves this year. Without Ronald Acuna, Ozzie Albies, Spencer Strider and Austin Riley, there's just not as much of a punch. Michael Harris is back, which is nice, and he does have 15 RBIs and 4 homers since coming back, but...he's not hitting for average. Orlando Arcia's season is a disappointment after last season's ASG campaign. Same with Sean Murphy, he's hitting around .200 and seems to just not be on this year. Matt Olson's got 25 home runs, which is nice, but last season he hit 54. And quite obviously Bryce Elder has struggled to find his 2023 mojo. 

Like, it is nice that the pitching, for the most part, has kept things moving, people like Sale, Fried, Lopez and Schwellenbach are keeping offenses down. But this offense can only do so much without its core intact. You have Jorge Soler, Whit Merrifield, Gio Urshela, Ramon Laureano and Adam Duvall trying to contribute something and not really doing much. There's only two people on this team, active, with more than 50 RBIs and 20 home runs. And it's Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson. It can't just be on those guys to keep the offense going, this isn't New York.

The Braves are still favored to take the spot right now, because they're built better, and have better overall luck than the Mets. But I think if you asked your asked your average sports fan, they'd want the Braves to take the fall. They're do. The Mets sliding into their space would be a great underdog story, especially in a year where the Braves don't really deserve the glory. So with all these games left to play, there's no telling who'll be standing on the spot when the season ends, but if it is the Braves, they're gonna need to do a lot of lifting to prove themselves in a postseason of titans.

Coming Tomorrow- One of those players who I can never tell when he's gonna be back on. He was miserable the last two years, and now a competitor's using his hot streak to their advantage.

A Big Eflin Deal

 

I was thinking about something yesterday as Connor Norby hit two home runs against Seth Johnson in Miami. Norby, an Orioles prospect traded for Trevor Rogers due to having no space to play in Baltimore, was succeeding for the Marlins, while Johnson, an Orioles prospect traded for Austin Hays due to having no space to play in Baltimore, failed to even strike anybody out. 

An Orioles prospect teeing off an Orioles prospect...at the expense of the Philadelphia Phillies. And then I thought about it, and...Zach Eflin, Seranthony Dominguez, Craig Kimbrel and Gregory Soto are now playing for Baltimore, and some of the only prospects the Orioles gave up this year are actively hurting the Phillies. So maybe THAT was why they traded for Trevor Rogers. So it would set off a domino effect that ended in misery for Phillies fans. 

...shame the Ravens didn't benefit from this plan, but there ya go.

Anyway, despite sitting a half game behind the Yankees for the division, the Orioles are looking very good rounding the last few weeks of the season. A lot of the momentum from the oncoming former Philadelphia residents may have helped. As I predicted, Seranthony Dominguez figured out whatever was ailing him in Philly and has a 2.76 ERA in 16 appearances. Zach Eflin's first six starts as a member of the Orioles have been excellent, going 5-1 with a 2.37 ERA and 38 Ks. He's reaching legitimacy he only flirted with in Tampa this year, and is the kind of rotation addition the O's wish Jack Flaherty was last year. Craig Kimbrel does continue to be an issue in the ninth, but every so often he'll channel his former glory for a save. 

And now aiding the already strong central core of the lineup are people like Eloy Jimenez, who's hitting .268 and has become a beloved power player off the bench, and Austin Slater, who's .295 and is doing the exact kind of sneaky contact stuff that made him a favorite in San Francisco. Plus, both Anthony Santander and Gunnar Henderson are chasing 40 home runs. Two Orioles from very different parts of the rebuild, uniting to hit home runs and have excellent seasons. Colton Cowser really has turned into a nice everyday outfield bat, and he might get some ROY votes this year. And Holliday, even as he does run from his April stats, does seem like the guy going forward. 

The Orioles are good right now, though they have lost some recent games against mediocre opponents. A lot of divisional matchups lay ahead, including against the Yankees and Red Sox, and by the time they finish with the Twins they'll have needed to sustain some section of the momentum. I do not want to see these guys make another easy exit from the playoffs. They are too much fun for this. 

Coming Tonight: As a late injury return, he could be the difference-maker in the quest for the last playoff spot. 

Too Much Muncy Business

 

The Dodgers are really gonna have a guy vy for a 50-50 season for the first time in MLB history, all while their entire rotation is held together with scotch tape and decaying velcro.

I have no idea how they're doing it at this point. They've landed on a rotation of Jack Flaherty, still-ailing Walker Buehler, Bobby Miller, Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski, with the idea that Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be back within the week to relieve Wrobleski. All while Gavin Stone, Tyler Glasnow and  Clayton Kershaw are down and Ryder Ryan, Emmett Sheehan, Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin are firmly in the 'do not use' pile. They're going to the postseason with 'I mean, I guess this'll have to work.' This is not what you want! The one sure thing in this rotation is a guy they got from Detroit midyear who has a tendency to either crap out or get hurt, and everyone's just relieved and surprised that he hasn't yet. This is what the weight of the team is hinging on, Jack Flaherty's ability to not be Jack Flaherty. And remember, there have been many playoff teams in the past few years who've run into calamities basing their season on that very factor.

I'm just dumbfounded by the fact that a faulty rotation hasn't stopped the Dodgers. Cause we've seen this prevent great teams from competing before. The Red Sox took ages to form a decent rotation this decade, and suffered for a few years. The Astros were not a great team this year til the rotation took shape, and now that Hunter Brown, Framber Valdez and Spencer Arrighetti are locked in, I uh...hate them again. The Dodgers never really had a moment where the rotation came together though, they just went with it and hoped the lineup would bail them out. And luckily, a lineup consisting of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman, Tesocar Hernandez, Max Muncy and Will Smith tends to do that quite a lot!

And that's gonna get the Dodgers relatively far, a lot like the Astros. Your problems don't seem to big if you have an energized lineup that can keep producing consistently. Max Muncy picked up right where he left off, hitting .321 with 7 RBIs and 2 homers in 10 games in August. He's been a bit colder this month, but he always finds a way to produce in September and October. Mookie Betts, despite no longer being the MVP frontrunner, is hitting .311 since his return, with 23 RBIs and 6 homers. Freddie Freeman has another 30-homer year under his belt, and if he's not too upended by an injury Teoscar Hernandez might join him. Even against the also-great Guardians, the Dodgers still look confident and powerful.

Now...I don't know if this is the Dodgers team to get back to the World Series. Not with this pitching staff. But it's all about happenstance now, so they may do something crazy.

Coming Tomorrow- The Rays actually signed him to a nice deal last year. So it shouldn't shock you that he's already having a great second half for an entirely different team. 

Always Be Closing: Has Hader Still Got It?

 

I think the key issue with the modern closing pitcher is because everything's engineered by depth chart order and not by actual closing prowess, there's a shortage of players who just close 30 games every year for 10 years. We're away from the standard of Troy Percival or Billy Wagner or Bruce Sutter just keeping the gig due to their own consistency. All we have from that era are Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel, and both of them are decidedly inconsistent now.

Which is why Josh Hader is so fascinating. Because he is a true perennial closer, and he made a name for himself by closing games in Milwaukee like a pro. But like a lot of other closers who got the job out of convenience instead of actual worthiness, Hader is not consistent. We saw back in 2022 that when Hader happened upon a tough stretch, he was poison. The Padres remember this from his early tenure there that fall. But then in 2023 he came around and got himself a worthy deal for the foreseeable future.

...The fact that Hader's taken this long to feel like himself, despite being a perfect fit for the Houston bullpen, tells you everything you need to know about his inconsistency.

In April 2024 alone, Josh Hader had a 6.39 ERA 2 losses and 2 saves in 13 games. It was extremely upsetting to watch. And you can go 'well this was April, everyone on the Astros was bad', but Hader might have been the worst part. He'd struggled before, mostly in 2022, but this was a new level of inefficiency. The guy couldn't get a thing done that month, and even as he improved in May and June, it was hard for Astros fans to feel that optimistic about him. August 2024, however, was his best material; with a 0.68 ERA, he struck out 17 batters and got 8 saves, bringing him closer to 30. Now he was finally a great closer playing for a great team, and while that doesn't erase several of the months that came before, it at least proves that this kind of performance is still possible from Hader. 

Now...he hasn't pitched in over a week. His last stats were in August. It's a mixture of the Astros not having any save situations for him and them trying to test out their other relievers, who are in need of decent innings. At this point they're just trying to make sure Hector Neris, Nick Hernandez Caleb Ferguson, Bryan Abreu and Ryan Pressly don't embarrass them in the postseason, which is honestly likely.  This bullpen has looked way better in years past, and right now Hader is honestly the anchor, so I understand why he's been away for a week. But...it's slightly worrying. Not entirely, but slightly.

The Astros are pretty good this year, and are using a series with Arizona to distract from the fact that they just got the shit beaten out of them by the Reds. They're likely winning the division this year, and considering that Manfred politely handed them 6 September games against the Angels to make up for the tough April, they have a chance for a first round bye as well. The Astros seem to be the only team immune from the first round bye curse, solely, it seems...because it pisses me off. But if enough of their players, including Hader, stay hot, they could make another run. I really don't want them to, but the possibility is always there. 

Coming Tonight: After being out for most of the year, he finally returned last week, and unsurprisingly the power numbers aren't gonna be an issue.

Sal of the Century

 

In every full season since 2017, the Milwaukee Brewers have finished with 86 wins or more. This includes years they didn't make the playoffs [2017 and 2022]. And despite having a 95-win season in 2021, all of these recent campaigns have ended the same way. Since Craig Counsell became the manager, the Brewers had one season where they were inches from a World Series, that classic 2018 NLCS where they were doing back and forth with LA. And that's as close as they got, as every subsequent playoff attempt was met with an early exit from the playoffs, including a string of years where the Brewers couldn't even get past the first rung.

So, when Craig Counsell took David Ross's position in Chicago this year, it felt at the time like an upgrade for Chicago. The big contract team finally getting the big-game skipper. But now, in hindsight, it feels like the same kinda move the Yankees made back in the day, firing Joe Girardi for continuing to not get them a ring, and hiring Aaron Boone who...well...got them a little closer. And so Pat Murphy being the guy who leads a Brewers team that looks like they're gonna eclipse a lot of the Counsell ones almost immediately is...a fun development that nobody really knew they were getting. 

This Brewers team, even without Yelich or Woodruff, feels so much more consistent, and so much better formed all over. There are proven answers at every position. Going into the year, there were a lot of stabs in the dark, like 'I guess Joey Ortiz goes here' or 'I dunno if Perkins or Mitchell has this one', but things feel really cemented with this team. Sal Frelick has pinned down right field, not just with his diving catches back there but his excellent contact work. The fans seem to have gravitated towards Frelick, which shouldn't be a shock whatsoever. Blake Perkins has the defensive leg up for center field, despite the fact that Garrett Mitchell is also pretty good on defense as well. Joey Ortiz, who, again, was kind of an afterthought at third, has been an everyday guy with 48 RBIs this year. And Contreras, Adames, Turang and Chourio are all stars, and this year's confirmed it.

It also just seems like all the pieces have really come together. Devin Williams is back and is in peak form, with 8 saves already. Frankie Montas and Aaron Civale have been excellent additions to the rotation. Freddy Peralta's proving that leaving him the head of the rotation wasn't a bad idea. Eric Haase has become a really fun bench piece. Rhys Hoskins, even if he's having a one-dimensional year, has still been a tremendous source of power. Hell, Willy Adames has his first 100+ RBI year ever, that's a pretty big deal.

This Brewers team not only seems great right now, they seem well engineered. The last few years there's been a feeling of 'they could surprise some people', but I do see this Brewers team winning playoff series' and being a clear standout. It will come down to seeding, and they could get handed an opponent that does something crazy, but with how good they've been recently, and how many great players they have truly surging right now, I have a really good feeling.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically, the Brewers' former closer.

Never Too Early for Big Christmas

 

It really is as simple as this. After many of their power prospects didn't work out, the Cleveland Guardians brought up a 6'3, 250 lb Dominican guy named Jhonkensy Noel, whose entire thing is hitting home runs. And it's worked out pretty well for them.

I think that since Franmil Reyes fell apart, the Guardians have needed that surefire power bat in the lineup. I wouldn't put Jose Ramirez in that category, he's much more multifaceted. Just a pure hitter who can be relied upon to do just that...whenever. Somebody who fills the same role as Yordan Alvarez in Houston. And so far, Noel has just been that kind of power bat. Through 50 games, Noel is hitting .254 with 27 RBIs and 13 home runs. Already, fans adore this guy. A schtarker who can rake, what's not to love. And so he's already been given the name Big Christmas, because when the Cleveland massive figures out a great nickname, that thing's never going away. 

And all this as the previous utility/DH the Guardians have relied upon this season, David Fry, has cooled down significantly since his June rise to glory. Now he's only hitting .261. That's really the problem with some of this Guardians team, that a lot of what was really working midyear has cooled down. Steven Kwan is now hitting under .300, and his OPS has calmed down significantly. Josh Naylor, despite having an 100-RBI year, has his OPS under .800 as well. And Lane Thomas still hasn't been able to stay above .200 in Cleveland, owing to his decidedly down year. But...this is still a team with peak Jose Ramirez on it, and he's making this team remain a contender despite some slowing progress.

Additionally, this rotation, of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Ben Lively, Alex Cobb and Matt Boyd, has been even stronger than anyone would have thought. Because with all those injuries you think it's gonna collapse on itself, but Cobb and Boyd, despite looking like replacement level choices, have been really strong so far. And Bibee, without being too flashy, has been a worthy ace in Bieber's absence. It's definitely a DIY type rotation, but the thing works. And don't get me started on the bullpen. No one could even dream of being able to hit most of those guys.

The Guardians are very close to bringing home the division this year. If they stay afloat through matches against the Dodgers, Twins, Cardinals and Astros, it'll be theirs. And then it'll be time to see if there's a conversation to be had about the Guardians going long. I think they're not completely there yet, but they could surprise people, including me.

Coming Tonight: Last August he was called up to a lot of fanfare, and made some quick fans right off the bat. A year later he's helping his team make yet another postseason push.

Phils Like Home

 

Typically, around this point in the season, you'd be expecting the Philadelphia Phillies to spontaneously inherit the momentum of an entire Roman army. Without warning. But 2024 is different, because the Phils have sported this kind of momentum repeatedly throughout the season, and are back to it for the umpteenth time. No longer do teams have to be careful around a Phils team that could be unstoppable; now it's a Phils team that is unstoppable, and aspires to continue to be unstoppable.

The last week or so has been an upgrade from the usual pre-October tomfoolery. The Phils won important series against the Royals, the Astros and the Braves, three teams with serious postseason aspirations. While the Astros did silence the Phils on one occasion, to the point of Spencer Arrighetti nearly no-hitting them, they still dropped two to them, making this the second time in recent history that the Phils have embarrassed Houston a month or so before the postseason. And then the Phils took two from the Jays, including a tour de force performance by Kyle Schwarber, who's once again reminding us all what a wonderful move signing him has been. And now they're just having fun against the Marlins, who really don't have much left save for the lingering possibility of a fuller Edward Cabrera in 2025. 

And it's important that the Phils are still rolling, because we're coming upon some foibles that could have stopped past Phillies teams. Today Alec Bohm hit the IL with a hand injury, while Bryce Harper has been held out recently with a small injury of his own. Losing these two this soon before the playoffs could have been debilitating before, but with the possibility that both would be back by October, and the existence of Edmundo Sosa and Kody Clemens as excellent fill-ins this year, it's not an especially worrying development. Clemens has been hot as hell recently, notching 15 RBIs and 4 homers this season alone. Weston Wilson's hitting .322, with the cycle under his belt, as well as 19 hits, 7 RBIs and 3 homers in 26 games. And Sosa covering third is still a very good thing, as his defensive excellence, and his .264 average, have been crucial to the Phillies' continued success this season.

Really, the only point of weakness the Phillies have right now is that fifth starter position. The top four, all of them are excellent. Wheeler's chasing Cy again, which...Sale's got him on the ropes but it could be a photo finish, Nola's having another excellent year, Suarez seems to be back to normal, and Cristopher Sanchez is proving his worth, with a 10-9 year with a 3.45 ERA and 131 Ks. But both answers at the 5 spot have been upsetting so far. We've established Taijuan Walker doesn't work, and now Tyler Phillips has been pretty cooked ever since his complete game appearance earlier in the year. I guess the next best option is Kolby Allard, he's been a decent enough seat-filler. But...y'see, there's this guy the Phils got from Baltimore named Seth Johnson, and he's been impressing people this year all-around, and...I think it'd be cool if he got a shot. I know, we're doing this for September's sake, we've got starters for October, but it'd be good to start figuring out options going forward. It'd be great if we had Andrew Painter right now, I know, but Johnson could be something too. 

The Phillies look...incredibly good right now. They're filling with me with confidence, despite the worry that their status as a top seed could spell doom for their playoff prospects. Hopefully the momentum won't be able to handle any oncomers, and hopefully this is the team that brings something home, after the last two came so close.

Coming Tomorrow- Cleveland is the land of excellent MLB nicknames. 'The Human Rain Delay'. 'Cookie' Carrasco. 'Pronk'. And now, this guy, who's already been dubbed 'Big Christmas.'

Throwing September the Yankee Way

It's infuriating when the way to win is right in front of someone and they refuse to see it.

I think about Doc Rivers a couple years ago playing DeAndre Jordan over Paul Reed. Doing the whole 'this is where he should be right now' schtick, and then unsurprisingly it went nowhere. A couple weeks ago, Rob Thomson doing the whole 'Taijuan Walker is the best person for this position' schtick as he kept refusing to win games. 

But what's going on in New York is the worst of it. The Yankees have been sliding all month, and just dropped a pair of really crucial games to the Rangers, who aren't going to the playoffs this year. There's swaths of the lineup that aren't hitting, including, suddenly, Aaron Judge. And Aaron Boone and Brian Cashman seem to think that the best course of action right now is keeping Jasson Dominguez in Scranton. Dominguez has been murdering the ball in Triple-A, and is an upgrade from Alex Verdugo in left. But despite this being THE move, and despite everyone being ready for it, they won't commit. 'Alex is our left fielder', yada yada. 

And thus the Yankees keep losing games, and wondering why.

Carlos Rodon, the other day, had his best start as a Yankee. He struck out 11 people. Only allowed one run. The Yanks were leading with 2 outs in the bottom of the ninth. Then Clay Holmes gives up a walk-off grand slam to Wyatt Langford, who proceeds to rob what could have been a crucial home run during Wednesday's game. Langford, by the way, was drafted last year, and made the majors this year because he was ready, and everyone knew it, and there was no use keeping him in the minors. Take that as a hint, Yankees. We're being fricasseed by a 20-year old who's major league ready because his organization has the balls to actually play him in the majors. And you're losing because you wanna ensure you control YOUR 20-year-old for as long as possible.

It's not like it's been all bad recently, but it's been infuriatingly mediocre. Jazz Chisholm, at the very least, is the answer at third base, hitting .333 with 9 homers, 15 RBIs and 11 steals in 26 games. I knew there was a chance someone like Chisholm would be too much in New York, but he's been wonderful so far, and has been lifting this team in this period. Soto is still hot, he's 2 homers away from 40 and 2 RBIs away from 100. Rodon, Cole and Cortes are on hot streaks right now, and this week we get Schmidt and Gil back. With no offense meant towards Marcus Stroman, if that rotation continues to hold up we could be alright. 

But keeping Duke Ellis, an outfielder no one has heard of, in the majors over Jasson Dominguez is gross negligence at this point. Every game Dominguez isn't up, hitting like he is, feels like a thrown game. And that's what games against the Cardinals and Rangers have felt like, thrown games. The lineup feels uninspired some days- you have any idea how difficult it is for a lineup with Juan Soto and Aaron Judge in it to feel uninspired?? Plus, with Soto threatening to sign elsewhere, we don't even know if a Soto-Judge-Dominguez outfield will ever happen again after this season, which is why it needs to happen now, while all three are ready. 

If the Yankees lose easily in the playoffs again, and they refuse to bring up Dominguez until it's far too late, they don't get to ask why. They just don't want to win. And it's easier if they outright say it than if they continue to make moves like this.

Coming Tonight: Leave it to the fifth man on the chart to somehow have himself an All-Star season.

Fade to Blackmon

 

I feel like I had a similar post on this subject last year, but seeing as the guy in question is closer to replacement level than he was last year, it's probably more appropriate now.

So, Charlie Blackmon's on the last year of his contract in Colorado. He was supposed to be done after last year, the Rockies brought him back, he's now 38 and batting .250 with none of the contact perks he displayed in his prime. There's a definite possibility that Blackmon's rounding out the end of his Rockies tenure. I don't know what else he has left to prove both in the bigs and in Denver. At least Joey Votto waited until he knew he had nothing left; Blackmon I think is getting to that point. And it's become clear that the Rockies have spent enough money on people who aren't gonna even yield 1 WAR this year, so...it's better off that this is the end.

Now, the one issue with that is that without Blackmon, who is the sole heroic figure on this Rockies team. In an ideal world it'd be Kris Bryant, but the man hasn't exactly shown up yet. He's been here for 3 years now, has gotten several opportunities to match up to his Cubs days, and it really hasn't happened. In 37 games this year, he's hit .215. This man won an MVP once. And I don't know if he even knows how to get back to the material that did so. 

What does help is that there's more of an identity to this regime of Rockies teams than there was before. I can easily point to Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar, Brenton Doyle and Michael Toglia as cemented pieces of this team, and can feasibly see Drew Romo, Nolan Jones, Brendan Rodgers and Victor Vodnik continuing to factor into this team's growth. I can see all of those guys hanging from banners outside Coors Field in the foreseeable future. Romo, the big prospect who came up recently, has yet to hit consistently in the majors, but all signs point to him being the backstop of the future in Colorado, and for a franchise that's never truly had a homegrown multi-tool catcher, that's a reassuring forecast. 

But the thing is, as reliable as some of these people are, will they come close to the wall-to-wall impressive nature of the LeMahieu-Blackmon-Arenado-Story years? The Rockies had a goldmine of contact hitters and only could do so much with them. So this franchise needs to build something better, and from the looks of what's coming around now...they may need more time to flesh out. Which isn't the worst thing, but I don't think anyone wants it to be another, like, 5 years before the Rockies can compete again.

Coming Tomorrow- They asked him upon getting here if he could play third base, and he seemed to be alright with the prospect. Which is not how I figured the answer at third would arrive in New York.

Farm to Table

 

I think it says a lot about the Angels as they stand at the moment that the two 2010s-era mega-draft prospects, Jo Adell and Mickey Moniak, are having one-dimensional, frankly underwhelming seasons, while there are some really nice 2020s-era draft picks, essentially fresh out of the pack, who are already leading the team. Zach Neto, from the 2022 draft, is the best player on the team with great offensive and defensive work this year. Nolan Schanuel, from last year's draft, has put together a solid enough sophomore year, with 12 homers and 43 RBIs. And they just brought Caden Dana up, the 20-year-old 2022 draft pick who did really well in his first start. 

So maybe NOW the Angels' luck is beginning to turn up? Y'know, with...no sign of Mike Trout and the team's best player from last year looking to win an MVP with the Dodgers.

Pretty much all of the best stories from the Angels this year have come from post-pandemic draft classes. Ben Joyce, with his 105-mph fastball, was another 2022 draft pick. Meanwhile, two 2019 draft picks who've been called up this year, Kyren Paris and Jack Kochanowicz, have struggled, with Kochanowicz trying to keep his ERA under 5. 

And it's also just very funny in general how many former Top OMG Prospects have made their way through this Angels team this year. All of Cole Tucker, Miguel Sano, Keston Hiura, Willie Calhoun and Matt Moore made appearances for the Angels this year, and I can tell you with certainty that all five of those guys have had their rookie cards stockpiled by a prospector in the last decade and a half. Remember when Hiura was supposed to be THE guy for the Brewers, and then he just completely fell apart? Remember when we all yelled at the Dodgers for giving up Willie Calhoun in the deal that netted them Yu Darvish? Remember when Matt Moore was supposed to be the Rays' next Cy Young guy, then it became clear that he couldn't pitch for more than two innings? 

It's a wonder this team has landed on prospects that actually work, and can actually keep a team going. Schanuel and Neto, a year after they were called up to fill urgent positions, have become everyday guys with a lot of perks. I'm thinking Dana will fill a certain role, as [hopefully] will Samuel Aldegheri, the first ever Italian-born MLB-er, netted in the deal that gave the Phillies their surefire ninth inning man this year. And while I'm not even sure what else Mike Trout can do for this team considering his recent track record, there's at least the possibility that the farm system will eventually make this team a factor again soon. I just...don't think Trout'll be around to see it. He might retire in a year or so at this rate.

The Angels might be bad for a little while longer, but from the looks of these recent draft picks, they might come around eventually.

Coming Tonight: It's his last contracted year, there's no knowing whether or not he'll be back anywhere next year, and I think he's just enjoying the moment at this point.

For Your Cubsideration

 

Last year, the Chicago Cubs, despite some dips in quality, got insanely hot late in the year, yet couldn't sustain that momentum for a postseason run. This year, the Cubs...have had some dips in quality, have been one of the hottest teams in baseball since the ASG break, and are still 4 games behind the Mets-Braves scrum. It may be more of the same, or it may be an inexplicable playoff run from a team everyone counted out.

Something that was always clear about the Cubs, even in the weak points, was that they were a well-built team that had terrible luck. They made an upgrade at manager by getting Craig Counsell, they brought back Cody Bellinger and signed Shota Imanaga, and they lined their team with solid, consistent players. It was just a matter of getting everybody to be good at the same time, and that took them until now. Shota Imanaga was incredible in April, then he...met Angel Reese and cooled down significantly. Kyle Hendricks has Jekyll-and-Hyded like no one has in a while, just over the course of this season. Mike Tauchman had a big May and did little else.

And now, you're seeing all these people that took til NOW til build something, like Dansby Swanson, Nico Hoerner, Justin Steele, Seiya Suzuki and Miguel Amaya, working on great seasons. Swanson honestly came out of nowhere, and went from a low-level contact rate to now having 55 RBIs and 13 homers, in addition to another year of solid defense. Nico Hoerner was always steadily there but I think he became more important as the year went on, as this sort of leadership force with durable defensive skills and a team-leading 27 stolen bases. Suzuki has slowly accumulated more momentum, and now leads the team in OPS with 64 RBIs and 19 homers. 

This team, since mid-August, is 12 and 5. They're above .500, 2nd in the NL Central, and one of the few teams left in that division with any hope of making the playoffs. They've lost a few recent games to Pittsburgh, and now have the hell of playing the Yankees and Dodgers back to back. And then they finish the season by playing 4 bad-to-medicore teams and also the Phillies. If they can at least split the big series', and keep rolling through the Rockies and A's and those guys, the Cubs have a chance. They're a good enough team, the pitching's held up, the bullpen's surprisingly great, and they seem surer this year.

But...the Mets are ahead, and they might be a better version of the Cubs. They weren't supposed to compete, had an early deficit, surged like hell midyear and are now rolling. But they're rolling when the Cubs have stalled, and the Mets are very close to lapping the Braves for that wild card spot. If the Cubs want to outdo the Mets, they need to beat them at their own game and not bleed until they're in. The Mets are funny when they're hoisted by their own petard, and the Cubs aren't. People are expecting the Cubs to miss the playoffs, which is why they have to strike now.

Coming Tomorrow- A year ago he was one of the quickest draft-to-roster additions in recent history. Now he's got a few other colleagues from that draft class trying to shake up the team. 

The Wrong Kind of History

 

In my lifetime, I have a few different standards for ineptitude. The 2002-2003 Tigers is in there, probably the 2000s Devil Rays and Pirates, most recently the 2023 Athletics. Teams can be bad. Teams can rebuild specifically to be good in the future, but in order to do that they have to be bad.  And so it's understandable when a team has to tank, but usually they're...somewhat passable at times. Usually they have some strong moments or have a rare game where things come together.

The 2024 White Sox are a different animal entirely. I can say I remember the period in the mid-2010s when the White Sox weren't great, but even then they had people like Alexei Ramirez, Adam Dunn, Chris Sale and Jose Quintana. This team wishes they had that degree of success. This team's best player, Garrett Crochet, is the baseball equivalent of a ticking timebomb. He's throwing really well, he's capable of great starts, but because he's never thrown a full season he could get injured at any second, and seeing as he's the last good player on this damned team, that really shouldn't happen. His ERA's down to 3.61, he's 6-10, he's got 188 Ks, he's slowed down exponentially, for a reason. 

So the brunt of the work has been passed to fellow veteran Chris Flexen. With Seattle and Colorado, Flexen was a serviceable, if limited, starting option. All he's been tasked to do in Chicago is eat innings and keep things moving. Unfortunately, his last 20 appearances have resulted in White Sox losses, even if the loss hasn't always specifically been Flexen's. It just means that either he's failed to get through games without blowing up, or he's done alright enough for himself and the bullpen's blown it. He only has 2 wins this season, and a 5.36 ERA. And yet...it seems, by default, Flexen has the third-highest WAR of any active player on the White Sox. Luis Robert is on this team, and he's not doing statistically as well as Chris Flexen and his 14 losses. How is that even possible??

The White Sox are beyond a punchline at this point. Since Grady Sizemore's come onboard, the Sox are 3-19. Last night, in Baltimore, they were already losing 0-4, and then on a routine flyout by Eloy Jimenez, who seems to have gotten out easy, three infielders misplayed the ball, resulting in even more runs and bleeding. As Orioles broadcaster Kevin Brown put it, 'the White Sox have just gone full White Sox', which means this team's ineptitude now owes itself to specific vernacular. For years, the '62 Mets have been the go-to punchline for a terrible team, and now it just might be the 2024 White Sox. I have no idea what can even be salvaged from this team, or what can be built upon for 2025.

That's the frightening part. Next year's team might not be much better, because the whole rebuilding thing that was supposed to result in prospects coming into their own...hasn't been working out. Ky Bush didn't work in the majors. Oscar Colas still doesn't work in the majors. Prelander Berroa, a former Mariners can't miss prospect, is absolutely missing. So there's no progress on the actual rebuilding part of this plan. All they're doing is tanking, because that's all they know how to do right now.

The current White Sox experience is extremely depressing. It may not get any more exciting anytime soon. But hopefully it won't continue to be as bad as it is right now, because...yeesh. 

Coming Tonight: An infielder for a Chicago team that's doing much better. 

Who's Left?

 

It's weird looking at the Opening Day lineup for the Marlins now, because it just looks like a team that doesn't even exist anymore. It feels like it could have been from last year. Oh, remember when Josh Bell, Avisail Garcia, Jazz Chisholm, Trevor Rogers and Nick Gordon were on this team? Yeah, it was just a couple months ago. And it didn't work.

Right now, some of the only remaining Marlins from the April iteration of this team include Jesus Sanchez, who has 17 home runs and 51 RBIs, Nick Fortes, who wasn't exactly being relied upon for his bat anyhow, Jake Burger, who at the very least will finish with a 25+ homer year, and Edward Cabrera, who's been really strong in his last few starts. Everything else has been filled by replacement players, rookies and anyone who needed a job. There are some promising young guys on this team, like Valente Bellozo, Griffin Conine and Connor Corby, but next year the Marlins will likely rival the White Sox in terms of pure ineptitude. 

But, just so we have this for science, let's see how some of the people who left the Marlins this year are doing:

Josh Bell: As a sturdy fill-in for Christian Walker, Bell definitely has his mojo back, hitting .283 with 4 homers and 15 RBIs since coming over. 

Emmanuel Rivera: In only a week with the Baltimore Orioles, the former extra infield piece is hitting .286 with 5 RBIs and a homer. For a backup infielder for a competitor, that ain't bad, and he could factor into the postseason roster.

Jazz Chisholm Jr.: Chisholm has taken like a fish to water in New York, hitting .333 with 15 RBIs and 9 homers in 24 games. The extra spark that seemed to be missing from his Marlins numbers is all over these Yanks stats.

Bryan de la Cruz: It hasn't been as pretty as some of these other guys, but with the Pirates de la Cruz has, at the very least, been a nice source of power, with 12 RBIs and a homer in 26 games.

Luis Arraez: Regardless of his thumb issue, the veteran contact hitter still leads the NL in hits with 171, and in average with .310. The Padres will be using his effortless hitting abilities heading into a likely playoff scenario.

Christian Bethancourt: After hitting .159 in 38 games in Miami, Bethancourt somehow went on a tear in Chicago, hitting .387 with 3 homers and 15 RBIs. No one knows how this has happened. Not even Bethancourt.

Trevor Rogers: eh...we can skip him.

Tanner Scott: In 16 games with the Padres, Scott has a 2.40 ERA with 17 Ks and 2 saves. It's a solid progression of an already excellent season for the former Marlins chief relief specialist.

Bryan Hoeing: Similarly, the other reliever in that deal has a 1.13 ERA and 13 Ks in 11 games. So they did well all around.

A.J. Puk: This is the most insane one to me. Cause Puk struggled in the first half, both as a starter and just in general. So he heats up after returning to relief work. The Marlins trade him to Arizona. And once he gets there, he sports a 0.61 ERA in 17 games, meaning he's given up ONE EARNED RUN in that time, plus 22 strikeouts. This is incredible. All it took was getting out of Miami.

I really hope the Marlins can improve as a full unit next year, because this just got depressing after a while. The White Sox at least have Garrett Crochet. The Marlins have...like...people coming back from injuries, but...will they WANT to?

Coming Tomorrow- We're waiting to see if this season will have a twenty-game winner, but we definitely have a guy who's pitched in 20 straight losses.

A New Junior Jay Has Appeared

 

It's funny, with the Jays not making the playoffs this year and pawning off Jansen, Kikuchi and Biggio, it gave the idea that the Junior Jays era was coming to an end, and that the dynasty that Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette were trying to build didn't exactly pan out. And yet one of the biggest rookie sensations in Toronto in the last month has been Will Wagner, a contact machine who, get this, happens to be the son of Astros closer extraordinaire Billy Wagner. 

Yep, that's right, yet another second generationer, and yet another son of a truly great player. And this one's really good too. So here we go again, I suppose...

Will Wagner, in his first 17 games, is hitting .345 with 20 hits, 8 RBIs and 2 home runs. The hope is that Wagner will become the everyday 2nd baseman over time, but...y'see, that's what people said about Davis Schneider last year when he went on a similar tear. Schneider, for the record, is hitting under .200 and playing left field for the most part. I wanna believe that Wagner keeps it up, but considering that his main competition is Spencer Horwitz, who also had a hot streak but has cooled down immensely, who's to even say at this point. It's nice that second generationers are still leading the narrative in Toronto. I think about the fact that the Jays originally had Griffin Conine as well, and traded him to Miami, which, to be fair, makes for a sweeter outcome anyhow. There's probably other future second generation players in the Jays' system at this rate. Wouldn't shock me is all.

It is helpful that as all this has elapsed with Wagner, the original second-generation Jay is holding court still. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is turning in a classic season this year, hitting .324 with 27 home runs and 89 RBIs. I think for a while we were playing the game of 'where's the old Vlad Jr.', but he's turned things around and is back to what he was doing in 2021, and in spades. I have no idea if the Jays are gonna hold onto him after the season or trade him to a competitor, but if they do this'll be a great sendoff for the slugger in Toronto. I know they loved the guy there, and I know he'll do well wherever he lands.

But, of course, if Vlad does leave does this mean the rebuild is on? Does this mean it's gonna be on people like Will Wagner, Leo Jimenez and Joey Loperfido to play more crucial roles in this team, just a year after coming up? Are they gonna get a gradual descent, sort of like they did in 2018 [when I was in town], where they had enough good players to not completely fall on their ass but weren't exactly competitive anymore? They've got options, and they could look like a variety of things next year. I don't think they'll be fully competitive, though. Unless....something big develops.

Coming Tonight: A rare power producer still left in Miami.