Wednesday, December 31, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Yankees

 

If the last year or so has taught me anything, it is this: everybody wants to play in New York. They just don't realize it til it's too late that they don't want to play for the Yankees.

In 2024, the Yankees had the biggest star in the game come to them and play beautifully, and then he decided the Mets were respecting him more. This year, Cody Bellinger had an incredible year with the Yankees, and now it's looking like Scott Boras is making a deal very difficult. Devin Williams, Luke Weaver and Clay Holmes are all suiting up for the Mets next year after we seemed to burn our bridges with them. The only people that haven't fled the Bronx have been Paul Blackburn and Amed Rosario. And meanwhile, we gave Caleb Durbin to Milwaukee, gave Michael King a much firmer place to start in San Diego, Drew Thorpe will start for the Sox this year if he's healthy enough, and in a year or two Roc Riggio is gonna hit 40 homers in Coors Field. We're much better at improving other teams than we are at improving our own.

The Yankees still had the third-highest record in baseball this year, delivered an MVP season for Aaron Judge, and was home to several great seasons from a variety of role-players. But that wasn't enough either. The Jays were better than us, and could consistently show up in October. And so here we are, still trying to win a World Series for the first time since Steinbrenner was still alive. Will it happen in 2026? For the low, low price of 199.99, a Yankee championship could be yours..

Austin Wells was the primary choice at catcher this year, as Jose Trevino was flipped to Cincinnati for a strong year of Fernando Cruz. Wellsy has his perks but he's not perfect. In 126 games he hit .219 with 21 homers and 71 RBIs, a very average offensive season. Defensively he was a liability this year. We've gotta do better than 'Wells or Rice' as a catching platoon, man.
2026 Prediction: A colossal improvement. I'm not sure if it'll be enough to become THE guy back there for the next 10 years, but it'll do the trick.

In a year without Gerrit Cole, and in a year where Luis Gil would be out for several months, the last spot in the rotation, behind Max Fried, Carlos Rodon, Marcus Stroman and Clarke Schmidt, went to rookie Will Warren. Warren had some chances in 2024, but was still a risk for a rotation spot right after a championship. Sure enough, Warren was one of two Yankees to make all 33 starts, and went 9-8 with a 4.44 ERA, 171 Ks and 80 earned runs in 162 innings. A little messy, and a bit too many long balls, but the sort of heat that the Yankee fans could get behind.
2026 Prediction: He'll be 27, and he just pitched a full season of high velocity work as a rookie. See ya in 2027. I'd love to be wrong and get another full campaign from him, but I just can't trust pitchers anymore.

Jasson Dominguez spent the entire year in the majors. He is 22 years old, still one of the most promising young players in baseball, and still reaching his full potential. Due to platooning him with Trent Grisham, Dominguez played 123 games, and hit .257 with 10 home runs and 47 RBIs. The moment simply has not come yet. It looked like it was here in 2023, when Dominguez was on fire on a call-up and aided the team before getting hurt, but he's really yet to take charge of an opportunity since then. I'm really worried Boone has given him the Yermin Mercedes effect, where he's been so warped by a manager's tough love that he can't perform to the standard.
2026 Prediction: It all comes down to whether or not the Yanks re-sign Bellinger. Cause if they do, and Grisham still takes seniority, we have another year of this. But if they don't, and Dominguez can start everyday, not only does he have a breakout year and 30 homers, but it's more of an incentive to get Spencer Jones up.

Clarke Schmidt only had 14 games up this year due to injuries, but he looked very good in them. In 79 innings he had a 3.32 ERA, 73 Ks and a 1.7 WAR. Very good use of our time. Sadly he didn't factor much into the team's progress in the second half.
2026 Prediction: Much fuller, healthier year. His free agency is coming up kinda soon, too, so it's about time.

And now, our bullpen, or as they will be known next year, the Mets' bullpen. Luke Weaver's been terrific for us since we turned him into a reliever, and this year he began to wear out his welcome slightly. In 64 games, Weaver had a 3.62 ERA, a 1.021 WHIP and 72 Ks, plus 8 saves as the Yanks went away from an initial closing choice. Granted, that higher ERA is a clue to why we needed bullpen help midyear. Weaver also had a 135.00 ERA in 3 postseason appearances so...yeah
2026 Prediction: Figures his shit out in Queens, becomes an ideal setup man again.

The biggest picture of 'the Yankees as the problem' came from Devin Williams, a sure shot in the ninth that didn't work at all here, despite the team bending the rules to let Williams keep his beard. Williams did not mesh well with this team, and with the moment; in 67 games he had a 4.79 ERA, with only 18 saves and a lot more blown ones. It's important to add that Williams was perfectly fine in an eighth inning role, and his 90 Ks in 62 innings gave us enough pure dominance to be placated by. But we traded Nestor Cortes and Caleb Durbin for the next great closer, and Williams was not that guy for us, despite everything that said he would be. He was, however, scoreless in 4 postseason innings, even getting a win. 
2026 Prediction: HUGE season in the ninth for the Mets. They'll move on from Edwin Diaz very quickly.

Luis Gil, as he tends to, missed some time with injuries this season, and when he returned you could tell he was still being very careful not to overexert himself. It seemed to work well enough in terms of dominance, as he had a 3.32 ERA, a 4-1 record and a 1 ERA in 11 starts, despite only 41 Ks. Gil needed to just keep balls in play and work carefully, and it seemed to work out, even if his postseason start didn't go especially well.
2026 Prediction: Much better year, much more on target and closer to 2024.

It initially baffled me when the Yankees traded for Amed Rosario, even sacrificing Clayton Beeter to do so, but Rosario became a very helpful utility bat for us. While a later addition would be the defensive version of this, Rosario had some cool power moments, hitting .303 with 10 hits, 5 RBIs and a home run in 16 games. He also had 3 hits and an RBI in 10 postseason at-bats. From the strength of this small sample size, the Yanks kept him on, making Rosario the only person to seem to prefer the Yankees to the Mets this decade.
2026 Prediction: Nowhere near as contact-friendly but he'll have some cool moments late.

Landing David Bednar from the Pirates was a huge move, as it finally gave us an effective closer after the last two had let us down. The man known as the Renegade had a rough start in the Bronx, but, as he had earlier this season, found his footing and became an excellent ninth inning man, with a 2.19 ERA, 4 wins, 35 Ks and 10 saves in 22 appearances. He also had a 1.50 ERA, 9 Ks and 2 saves in 6 postseason innings.
2026 Prediction: 35+ saves, the culmination of his whole career.

Shakier still was Camilo Doval, who'd led the league in saves a couple years ago for the Giants. Doval's control issues got the better of him in New York, and in 22 games he had a 4.82 ERA, plus a 1.607 WHIP. Doval figured some things out by October, and gave up 1 earned run in 3 postseason innings.
2026 Prediction: He just needed to adjust. Becomes a really nice relief asset for us, even if it's not pretty in points.

My personal favorite mid-year Yankee pickup was Jose Caballero, who was leading the AL in saves when we got him from the Rays. Cabby is insanely versatile, can play multiple infield positions, hits for contact and steals bases. We needed a guy like him, even if McMahon was taking most of the reps at 3rd. Cabby was a huge success with the Yanks, hitting .266 in 40 games, with 21 hits, 9 RBIs, 3 homers and 15 steals. He was limited in the postseason, but the fans seem to really like him.
2026 Prediction: If Volpe doesn't figure the big leagues out, Cabby might be a winning everyday shortstop. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but it certainly could.

And that was 2025. It was a lot. Lots happened this year, in baseball and in general. I didn't post as much as I wanted. I dunno how often I'll post in 2026, or how often I'll have new cards worth posting about. We'll see where things go, I guess. As it stands, thanks for checking out the blog this year, and I hope you've enjoyed the writing and content. I hope to have near as much to say in the following 12 months, and I hope things are a little happier for all of us. 

Tuesday, December 30, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: White Sox

 

For the second year in a row, the Chicago White Sox, in lieu of a proven option, gave the Opening Day start to someone I had either never heard of or who only had a handful of major league starts to his name. Which genuinely feels like a sign of defeat from the jump.

Last year, of course, that no-name, 'why is he the only person here who can start Opening Day' choice turned out to be Garrett Crochet, now one of the best pitchers in the AL and the reason the White Sox's rebuild is accelerating at its current rate. This year, it was Sean Burke, who'd started a few games in 2024, and rather well at that. What bowled people over was the fact that the Opening Day rotation, consisting of Burke, Davis Martin, Martin Perez, Jonathan Cannon and surprise March call-up Shane Smith, managed to silence opposing teams, only allowing 2 runs in total in the first go through the rotation. Those two runs were both courtesy of Smith. Granted, this rotation wouldn't hold for the whole year, as Perez would get hurt and Cannon would need to go down, and they'd give Aaron Civale a try, but to have a pretty consistent rotation over the course of the season, with no particularly awful options, meant that the White Sox were definitely improving from being a gutter punchline in 2024. 

They still lost 102 games this year, but I now know who they are. As do they, I think. And now, at the very least, they've signed an actual crucial free agent, Munetaka Murakami, and while it is likely because 28 other teams passed, that's still an average of 18 more home runs than most current White Sox are capable of hitting nowadays.

Anyway, after a really nice Opening Day start, Sean Burke evened out and wound up with a very okay full season, with 28 games, 22 of them starts, 133 Ks, a 4.22 ERA and a 4-11 record, meaning Burke wound up with the most losses of any White Sock. To be fair, I think Chris Flexen ended 2024 with like 90 losses, so it just feels like an improvement.
2026 Prediction: Gets another shot in the Opening Day rotation, does better but misses time due to an injury.

This'll be a cool 'fun fact' in a couple years' time: the most home runs of any White Sox player in 2025 came not from Andrew Benintendi, Luis Robert or even Colson Montgomery, but from middle infield guy Lenyn Sosa, who cracked 22, and actually did a lot of nice power stuff with 75 RBIs and a .261 average. He's not perfect, and led the team in strikeouts with 127, but it's nice that somebody managed to move forward offensively on this team.
2026 Prediction: Well...look. Chase Meidroth is gonna be the answer at 2nd. Colson Montgomery is gonna be the answer at short. Miguel Vargas seems to have third. Up until very recently I assumed Sosa would be the guy at first, but then this Murakami guy landed and I'm now thinking he might take a lot of the reps, assuming he's not a full-time DH. So Sosa is gonna have to be a bench bat/utility guy, and his defense isn't really befitting of that. So who knows, really.

Jonathan Cannon also began the year in the rotation, and unlike Davis Martin and Sean Burke, Cannon didn't display much growth from that dismal 2024 year. In 22 games he had a 5.82 ERA, a 1.486 WHIP, and some time in Charlotte.
2026 Prediction: Okay, so the way things are looking right now, the White Sox' Opening Day rotation is looking like it'll be Shane Smith, Anthony Kay, Davis Martin, Sean Burke, and either Sean Newcomb or a fully rehabilitated Drew Thorpe. You also have to remember that at some point, the White Sox are gonna call on Hagen Smith. And Ky Bush might factor into things as well. I'm saying all of this because I don't think Jonathan Cannon will be doing much starting next year, and honestly he might have better luck as a long reliever.

Since coming back from Korea, Mike Tauchman has been a Chicago bench favorite, and he continued that run into the South Side after two years with the Cubs. Tauchman wound up as one of the highlights of the White Sox this year, hitting .263 with 9 homers and 40 RBIs in 93 games, shortened by injuries. I think Tauchman's cut came because of how confident the Sox were in building their homegrown outfield, even if they still trade Robert. They seem to think Brooks Baldwin is the guy in right, and I feel like they have someone getting ready in center at some point. 
2026 Prediction: Honestly, the Padres could really use a guy like him, or maybe somebody like the Reds or Giants. 
The Sox' top relief specialist was rookie Mike Vasil, who took a charter role in the bullpen and absolutely took off, with a 2.50 ERA and 82 Ks in 101 innings. His 2.9 WAR was the 3rd-highest on the team, and the highest of anyone who made the Opening Day roster. Very cool that Vasil and Smith, two Opening Day rookies, were some of the most valuable White Sox at year's end. 
2026 Prediction: They're going with Jordan Leasure as RP1, so Vasil will be the chief relief specialist without needing to close, and will have a very strong first half. I worry that all that work will lead to overexertion though.

Martin Perez was an Opening Day rotation member that had a stellar run, got hurt and finished the year strong. Though he only had 11 games in Chicago this year, the veteran starter had a 3.54 ERA, a 1.107 WHIP and 44 Ks. He did wind up with 6 losses, which I attribute to rough run support.
2026 Prediction: Somebody's gotta sign him, right? He can still pitch. He's 34, very much still that guy. The trouble is I think Jose Quintana's cornering his market a bit, and the people who miss out on Quintana might have to settle for Perez.

Coming Tomorrow- At long last, the end of December, which means I have to talk about how my Yanks blew it again.

Monday, December 29, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Twins

 

In May 2025, the Minnesota Twins won 13 games in a row, including 6 wins against the Orioles, and key matchups against playoff teams Boston and Milwaukee. 

From August 15, 2025, until the end of the season, the Minnesota Twins won only...13 games.

So something clearly happened. And that something was the organization completely giving up.

After the deadline, not only were some of the few short-term successes, like Harrison Bader, Chris Paddack, Ty France and Willi Castro, gone, but so were some long term organizational pieces like Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, Jhoan Duran, Louie Varland and Danny Coulombe. By the end of the season, Rocco Baldelli would join them out the door. So now, going into 2026, the Twins only have a few strong pieces remaining. Byron Buxton is still there, but how healthy will he be at 32? Pablo Lopez and Joe Ryan are still starting weapons, provided they're not dealt in the next two months. Royce Lewis is still there, assuming he doesn't miss 80 games again. And Luke Keaschall, Zebby Matthews, Mick Abel and David Festa will all factor into this team's development. Eventually.

But it's clear that the dream of the Baldelli years is over, the Bomba squad is all but dead, and the new task needs to be reestablishing an identity. I will most likely be checking in on the Twins in Ft. Myers this spring, and hopefully what I have to report back with is remotely positive. 

For now, there is at least the fact that the Twins got 27 starts out of Bailey Ober this year. They weren't the highest quality, and he had a 5.10 ERA and a 6-9 record, but he was there for the Twins all year, topped out at 146 innings and ensured they at least had two guys they could count on all year.
2026 Prediction: A much better year. Not sure if he'll still be around by August though.

Trevor Larnach has consistently attempted to legitimize himself without being an altogether impressive ballplayer. He's never hit above .260, he's never notched 20 homers, his defense is nonexistent, and this was his fullest season yet at 142 games, and his most disposable. Larnach hit .250 with 17 homers and 60 RBIs, fine for a mid-lineup bat but I really thought he'd be on a better pace by now.
2026 Prediction: Loses playing time to younger, and better, competitors.

Similarly, Ryan Jeffers, who had a terrific year in 2023 as a difference-making contact catcher, has mellowed out to being perfunctory both offensively and defensively. This year, Jeffers hit .266 with 9 homers and 47 RBIs, offensively more on target than last year. Trouble is his defense is an issue now. Meaning at a certain point Christian Vazquez felt like a defensive upgrade.
2026 Prediction: At some point, the Twins are gonna give Noah Cardenas a shot, and Jeffers' days may be numbered in Minnesota.

Royce Lewis is the definition of a novelty. When he's healthy, he blasts homers out of Target Field at an alarming pace. But he's NEVER healthy. This was Lewis's fullest season yet, at 106 games, and also his least noteworthy. He hit 13 homers and had 53 RBIs, with a .671 OPS. Big whup. Not much better defensively either.
2026 Prediction: It will be his age 27 season. Sometimes, somebody can do something incredible at 27 and then go back to how it was before. I'm thinking Lewis will fall into that category.

In a move that initially confused fans, the Phillies sent Kody Clemens to Minnesota midyear, in what would later become a move to free up space for Otto Kemp. Clemens had no trouble finding playing time in Minneapolis, and took 1st from Ty France after he left, doing a pretty bang-up job, with 19 homers and 52 RBIs in 112 games. I think Clemens is best used as a backup/utility guy, but even in a starting role with a dire team he was one of the highlights.
2026 Prediction: May start occasionally but I think the Twins will use him mostly as a backup 1B, assuming they have any desire to make Josh Bell play 1st at all.

Coming Tomorrow- I was not expecting I'd have this many White Sox left. They actually seemed to figure out what the future looks like after a bit.

Sunday, December 28, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Tigers



I'm not sure what people will remember more about the Tigers' 2025 season: that they blew a commanding lead over the division, that they still managed to beat the actual AL Central winner in a playoff series, or that they still ended up losing anyway. 

The Tigers immediately cemented themselves as a league power in the first half after an underdog come-up in 2024. Then so many of the pieces that had brought them forward, including Riley Greene, Spencer Torkelson, Jack Flaherty, Casey Mize and Javier Baez, stuttered down the stretch. The deadline retoolings, which were intended to be minor fixes, ended up looking that much worse as the team fell apart. And even if the Tigers stood a chance against the Mariners, the script had flipped. Any leverage they had in the first half was gone, and all the momentum was held by a now much-stronger Mariners team. Thus, even with Tarik Skubal, their road ended at the ALDS.

I still think the Tigers will compete going forward, and a lot of the pieces are still hanging around. You keep hearing they're gonna try to trade Skubal, but you're also hearing they're trying to sign Bregman. They're still trying to move forward, and with Max Clark still on the way there's still a ceiling for this team.

The Bregman rumors seem to make sense, considering that one of the main choices at 3rd has been Colt Keith, and...he's fine. He's a 2nd/3rd guy, and he also played the majority of games this year at DH, which should tell you a lot about his appeal as a defender. The good news is he was better at the plate, hitting .256 with 13 homers and 45 RBIs. His OPS was .746, way better than last year, and he's at the very least beginning to find staying power in the league. But the Tigers thought Keith was gonna be a strong option at 3rd and he's been incomplete so far. 
2026 Prediction: I think the Tigers are going to get an upgrade at third, McKinstry's gonna get more reps elsewhere, and Keith might need to be a backup/DH type. I think that'll work for everyone.

Another 2024 rookie that sought to play a larger role in the 2025 team [only to somehow have less of a presence than last year anyway] was Keider Montero. He was a depth starter this year who was phased out in favor of...Charlie Morton and Chris Paddack. Mostly because he wasn't all the way great yet. Montero had 20 appearances, 12 of them starts, and had a 4.37 ERA, 72 Ks and a 5-3 record. He also went scoreless in 5.1 postseason innings. 
2026 Prediction: Starts more down the stretch, an insane sub-2.50 ERA run happens, has a crucial postseason start.

Like last year, Parker Meadows was limited to only an addition during the stretch run. While he was the 'magic hat' that fueled the Tigers' postseason push in 2024, Meadows could only add so much this year in 58 games, hitting .215 with 16 RBIs and 4 homers.
2026 Prediction: Well it would be really great if he had a full season of work, cause I think he'd be able to put together a winning campaign. I think it will happen next year, to the tune of a .300 average.

The Tigers' bullpen was full of really strong options this year, and somehow without many of the usual suspects [Jason Foley, Alex Lange] contributing. For most of the season, the Tigers used a platoon of two different guys as the main closer, and the most successful one was Will Vest. I had Vest on my fantasy team for a while, and he was a really nice pickup, locking in with any role the Tigers gave him. In 61 games he had a 3.01 ERA, 75 Ks and 23 saves. He was also scoreless in 8 postseason innings, with 9 Ks and a save.
2026 Prediction: Leads the bullpen in appearances, takes most of the big relief assignments and takes the odd save when pressed.

The Tigers also had Tommy Kahnle, fresh off a strong year in New York. Kahnle's output took a step down this year, with a 4.43 ERA and a 1.302 WHIP in 63 innings. He still managed 9 saves, and had a nice run in May/June before things sort of fell off.
2026 Prediction: Rox invite him to camp, he trails off where his career started.

Much like when Mike Elias did it, the Tigers puzzled people by trading for Charlie Morton at the deadline. Yes, he locked in halfway through May and started playing like himself, but he was still 45 and had the potential to fall off. While his first couple Tigers starts were pretty good, the old Morton returned, and he was cut in September after posting a 7.09 ERA with 31 earned runs in 9 games. He retired as a Brave, fittingly. He could have maybe legged it out in Baltimore rather than spoiling a division title for the Tigers, but they thought this might help. 

One deadline deal that did help was bringing hometown boy Kyle Finnegan over after a great run in Washington. Finnegan got hurt midway through August, so he didn't get to do as much as fans wanted, but he was still an impressive closing option, with a 1.50 ERA in 16 games, plus 4 saves. In 6 postseason appearances he had a 3.86 ERA, a little shakier with tougher opponents. It didn't deter the Tigers though, as he's on for another two years in Detroit.
2026 Prediction: Well, seeing as Kenley Jansen will be in town next year, I don't think he's gonna be a 30 save guy, but I do think he'll be a killer, 2 ERA setup man. 

Coming Tomorrow- A few of the people who were still left in Minneapolis when the year ended.

Saturday, December 27, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Royals

 

On the surface, there's not a ton fundamentally different between the Royals team that went deep last year and the Royals team that missed the playoffs this year. Both AL Central teams that made it this year rode huge waves of hot streaks, and the Royals couldn't really do that in the second half. The Royals were also without Cole Ragans for a lot of the season, and had a limited version of Seth Lugo. Plus, the Brady Singer for Jonathan India trade, which I could have told you was short-sighted to begin with, robbed them of a crucial workhorse. With the pitching depleted, not even the best closer in the AL could keep them in the divisional race. With no fault of Witt, Garcia or Bubic, the Royals stayed home this October. That doesn't mean the Quantaro era is through, and considering the young talent taking over it may just be taking off.

On the plus side, the Royals got another great season of offensive production from their captain, Salvador Perez. From the looks of things his ability to play great defense behind the plate is pretty much gone, and all that remains is an above average power bat to play DH everyday, which isn't a bad thing. This year marked Salvy's third 100+ RBI year [100 exactly], and his second year of 30 or more homers [30 exactly]. This season put him over not only the 300 homer mark but the 1000 RBI mark, both very good things, even if Perez isn't exactly a lock for the Hall of Fame.
2026 Prediction: So his contract is up, but I don't think Salvy has any desire to play somewhere other than KC, so I think they're gonna give him the Kershaw/Cutch track. Just keep re-upping, as long as you wanna play for. Next year won't exactly be a 100+ RBI year but he'll be relied upon as a power bat for sure.

Cole Ragan has been so good since coming over from Arlington that a mediocre season felt like a huge blow to the Royals' plans. And it's weird to say that about a year where Ragans still had 98 strikeouts in 13 games. He obviously can still outsmart batters, and he's still very dominant, but he had a 4.67 ERA this year, and whatever went wrong was clearly enough to sideline him for the rest of the season almost. The good news is that he was strong for his first few starts, and his September starts were a big part of why his ERA went below 5. But man that April-May stretch where he was clearly hurt wasn't fun.
2026 Prediction: As I write this, the Royals have been rumored to be shopping Ragans, potentially gauging Boston's interest considering that Jarren Duran might still need to be moved as well. I don't think Ragans will end up being moved though, and he'll have a stronger, fuller year for the Royals.

Kyle Isbel has been a steady, reliable outfield choice for the Royals for the last several years. In 135 games this year, Isbel hit .255 with 33 RBIs, but the offensive angle is not the takeaway, as he's such a great option in center field that it makes the team more well-rounded. Witt, Garcia, Isbel, Michael Massey to a degree- they're all excellent defenders that are helping the Royals stay in it and stay formidable. Yes, the power hitting helps too, but you can't outscore opponents if you don't have a Kyle Isbel.
2026 Prediction: The hope is that eventually they get someone who'll relegate Isbel to a Myles Straw-esque substitution, but I don't think that happens next year. Does more of the same.

Ever since coming back from his injuries in Cincinnati, Michael Lorenzen has made a name for himself as an underrated, durable starting option. In Anaheim, Detroit, Philadelphia, Texas and now Kansas City, Lorenzen has eaten innings, had nice starts and done exactly what's been asked of him. 2025 was something of a setback for Lorenzen, as he went 7-11 with a 4.64 ERA in 26 starts, but he still made 140 innings, and, miraculously, he led the team in strikeouts with 127, beating his nearest competition [Lugo and Wacha] by only one or two Ks. 
2026 Prediction: Why stop now? There's tons of teams that could use Lorenzen. Arizona maybe? Milwaukee? Baltimore? St. Louis? I think he'll have a better year for any of 'em. 

For the second year in a row, one of the most effective relief specialists for the Royals was Lucas Erceg. In a full year with this team, he doubled his output and wired in, with an 8-4 record, a 2.64 ERA and a 1.174 WHIP. He did miss a smidge of time midyear but still made 61 appearances. 
2026 Prediction: I think with Erceg the magic is more likely to keep going than fade off now. The Royals will be better next year, and Erceg will continue his strong work, complete with an averted close call in October.
It is the year 2025, the game is ruled by a guy who was at LSU like two years ago, the Royals called up Jac Caglianone, and Rich Hill, who is 45, still pitched in MLB games. The Royals had him on for two starts this year in between some roster moves, and Hill...well, Hill pitched like a 45-year-old man. Not everyone can be Philip Rivers. He had a 5 ERA over 9 innings, gave up 5 earned runs and lost both games. Yet he still struck out 4. 
2026 Prediction: I know logically he's probably done, but this man still probably thinks himself indestructible. He is, after all, a New England Patriots fan. Look, if the Pats miss the AFC Championship, he might decide there's still more to do. If Drake Maye isn't there yet, he can just keep holding out til he is. So uh...screw it, Sox invite him to camp, makes 4 starts, has one insane scoreless outing. Why not, man? 

Adam Frazier, who was a good depth infield piece for the Royals last year, made a return before the deadline after spending a bit more time in Pittsburgh and remembering why he was grateful that he left. In 56 games in KC, he made up for a slow spring and hit .283 with 4 homers and 23 RBIs. Frazier, despite his best efforts, has become one of the more in demand utility infield helpers in the game, and the Royals clearly know that.
2026 Prediction: Why do I feel like the Royals already re-upped him? If they haven't already, they really should, it's nice to have security for Michael Massey.

In a move that shocked a lot of people, especially me, the Giants traded Mike Yastrzemski to the Royals. All that goodwill, all he'd done for the team, gone. Yaz only did so much to help the Royals' similarly doomed stretch run, but in 50 games he hit .237 with 9 homers and 18 RBIs, amounting to an .839 OPS. Clearly this one panned out for them, in addition to boosting Yaz's free agency case.
2026 Prediction: It's not gonna initially feel like it, but the Braves made the absolute correct choice nabbing him. It'll kick in very late.

In exchange for catcher Freddy Fermin, who, as I'll explain, they may not have needed anyway, the Royals got two more depth starting options to plug in for injured aces. Stephen Kolek had a 4.18 ERA in San Diego this year, and while he only got 5 starts in Kansas City, they were very sharp starts. Kolek had a 1.91 ERA, a 0.758 WHIP, 21 Ks and a 1.1 WAR after that month of work.
2026 Prediction: I think of the two guys they got, Kolek has more of a chance of getting flexed to a long relief position, but he'll have some nice starts when needed.

Ryan Bergert, at 25, has the higher ceiling of the two, and looked like the better choice in San Diego, with a 2.78 ERA in 11 appearances, 7 being starts. His KC work was less sharp, with a 4.43 ERA and 39 Ks in 8 starts. Cumulatively it's a 3.66 ERA, 1.4 WAR, 73 K season, which isn't awful to be fair.
2026 Prediction: Big year. Makes all his starts, becomes a really strong third man in this rotation.

After a certain point this year, there was really no avoiding it. Jac Caglianone, one of the top prospects in baseball, needed to come up. Unfortunately, as ready as he was in triple-A, his perks weren't all immediately evident in the majors in 2025. In 62 games, Caglianone hit .157, with 7 homers and 18 RBIs. He is 22 years old, just getting the hang of things, and will be fine. Not everyone can be Bobby Witt and have a rookie year that still looks better than 98% of rookie years even if, for Witt, it's mediocre. 
2026 Prediction: It won't be a full smash, but I think for three months we're gonna see some high quality offensive performance from this guy. I just don't know if it'll be right out of camp.

Dealing Freddy Fermin away lampshaded the fact that the Royals had another option at catcher in the wings, and eventually Carter Jensen was deployed. In 20 games he bat exactly .300 with 3 homers and 13 RBIs, already showing promise as a contact bat in addition to fine catching skills. 
2026 Prediction: The Royals are going to sign a career backup, somebody like Elias Diaz or James McCann, as a security measure, but Jansen will be the starter and he'll be ASG-quality.

Coming Tomorrow- A lot of auxiliary members of a Tigers team that couldn't quite follow up on the promises of their 2024 run.

Friday, December 26, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Rockies

 

I'm sure you're all spending today cleaning up after Christmas, getting rid of all the ripped up wrapping paper and boxes, spent on leftovers and watching reruns on TV, and I won't even blame you if none of you want to read a post on the 2025 Rockies. Like if this post gets zero page views, then honestly it deserves it. There's a list on the sidebar of the ten most viewed posts, mostly bolstered by bot usage or random spikes or whatever, and if this one ends up on that list then I'll know it's time to end the blog, because if this shit is being rewarded then there's no point.

The 2025 Rockies were an extremely bad baseball team. Any talent was either too injured to contribute, too young to make an impact, too burnt-out to manage anything, or simply couldn't keep pitches away from people at Coors Field. This is a team with Kris Bryant, German Marquez, Kyle Freeland, Mickey Moniak and Orlando Arcia, and if you were to hear that eight years ago you'd have gone 'oh, that sounds like a decent team, right?' This team couldn't even win 45 games. If it weren't for an alarming number of wins against the Cardinals and Diamondbacks, this team would have been even worse than the 2024 White Sox. Imagine that! That was already the bar for ineptitude. And here come the Rockies, with no pitching, like 2 good hitters and a crap-ton of replacement level guys, and they're rivaling it. 

The Rockies' bullpen had a surprising number of clear standouts. Jake Bird before the trade. Jimmy Herget. Ultimately Victor Vodnik, a homegrown relief weapon with a name like a James Bond villain and an imposing stare to match. Vodnik's 1.8 WAR made him the third most valuable Rockie this year, behind Herget and Hunter Goodman, and he had a 3.02 ERA in 52 appearances, despite a 1.401 WHIP. His 10 saves also means he may rival Seth Halvorsen for the ninth next year.
2026 Prediction: Yeah there's no way he's lasting the whole year here, he's way too good for Denver.



Dropped from the Rangers' roster to make room for, I'm assuming, Merrill Kelly or one of the other deadline pickups, 1st baseman Blaine Crim's first season in the bigs was looking like it was getting off to a horrid start. But then the Rockies came calling, and plugged Crim into the lineup for 15 games as a replacement for Michael Toglia. Crim responded with an excellent stretch, with an .851 OPS, 12 RBIs and 5 homers, a fitting power burst for a team with nothing left to lose.
2026 Prediction: Well, the Rockies don't exactly have a lot of options, so he starts the majority of games at 1st and hits 25 homers.

Coming Tomorrow- So many Kansas City Royals.

Wednesday, December 24, 2025

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Reds

 

Ever since that 2020 squad made it to an extended playoff picture, the Reds have been desperately trying to relegitimize themselves. This year they put Terry Francona in the driver's seat, made some very smooth moves in free agency and trading, and put together a very nice, if scrappy, mid-tier competitor. Now, I will say that if Hunter Greene had made it the whole season, they may have won enough games to not have to play the Dodgers in the wild card round, but as is, they were completely embarrassed. The Reds were engineered to win close games, and the Dodgers didn't give them any.

That doesn't mean that they're a bad team, it just means that this time around they were outmatched. Maybe a tad underdeveloped. Maybe a few healthy pieces from greatness. But this team was able to make Elly de la Cruz, Andrew Abbott, T.J. Friedl and, yes, Hunter Greene into guys playoff teams had to manage around. And it's only the beginning, because you can see Chase Petty and Sal Stewart coming up the pipe. Plus, Rhett Lowder could be back soon.

Tyler Stephenson is in a somewhat awkward position though, as one of the few pieces of the last rebuild effort in Cincinnati. Stephenson was a great hitting catcher in concept but has mellowed into a very okay everyday player, with middling defense and underwhelming power numbers. This year he hit .231 with 13 homers and 50 RBIs in an injury-shortened 88-game season. 
2026 Prediction: A healthy improvement, just in time for free agency in 2027.

Gavin Lux getting traded to Cincinnati was the Dodgers admitting that they have more faith in their ability to buy a great team than their ability to draft one these days. Between Lux, Dustin May, Hunter Feduccia, Michael Grove...it just hasn't been happening lately. So Lux got dealt to the Reds, and he primarily played a DH role, mostly because his defense has been atrocious. In 140 games, Lux hit .269 with 5 homers and 53 RBIs, meaning he's a decent contact bat without a ton of punch.
2026 Prediction: Lux is one of those 'oh who even knows' types because he'll either underwhelm or get injured. I say he does a little better than 2025 but the Reds are very quickly gonna get tired of him.

Nick Martinez has one of the surest gigs in Cincinnati, because all he has to do is sit there and wait for Nick Lodolo, Hunter Greene or Brandon Williamson to get hurt and then he does a nice job. Martinez was alright as a long reliever and depth guy, but unsurprisingly he also got 26 starts this year, going 10-10 with a 4.72 ERA yet a 1.248 WHIP and 106 Ks. Martinez, if nothing else, is sturdy, reliable and trustworthy. He fits into whatever role you've got and does what he can. Martinez also ensured that every Reds starter, of the core five, had a WAR higher than 2.2. Considering how many of these guys used to only be around for 10 starts, that's a good change of pace.
2026 Prediction: With the Reds supposedly moving on, and considering they have Burns, Lowder and probably Williamson backing up the core four, they have a right to, Martinez will find a mid-rotation job with a non-competitive team. Then maybe somebody cool trades for him at the deadline. Padres reunion perhaps?
Austin Hays, curiously I might add, didn't do as well in Philadelphia as he did in the laid back, homey southern tip of Baltimore. Also curiously he seemed to improve upon getting to play in Cincinnati. Very curious. I'm not gonna go into detail about my grievances against Hays, but suffice to say I think him getting to wear red this year was a bit on-the-nose. Anyway, Hays did well in a starting role in the Reds outfield, hitting .266 with 15 homers and 64 RBIs, plus some excellent defense, in 108 games. The injuries limited him, but it was a definite improvement for Hays.
2026 Prediction: Lol watch him sign with the Rays. Probably does okay somewhere. 

Will Benson was relegated to 'depth OF' position after an underwhelming 2024, and didn't make the team til midyear. This may have been the trick with Benson, as deployed in a bench OF/extra man sort of role he was way better, with 12 homers and 41 RBIs in 90 games. 
2026 Prediction: I think he's figured it out, he'll be even better in the first half and will play an elevated role in the stretch.

Tony Santillan, like a lot of Reds relief pieces admittedly, is terrific when he's healthy but will miss enough time to make you forget that. He was healthy all year this year, and appeared in 80 games with a 2.44 ERA, a 3.0 WAR and 75 Ks. It was the best season, and fullest season, of Santillan's career, and it was one the Reds had been waiting for for a while. 
2026 Prediction: Ow..

The Reds' main ninth inning option, in lieu of Alexis Diaz falling apart, was Emilio Pagan, the former Rays and Padres relief specialist who most recently figured his shit out with Minnesota. Pagan was not a perfect closer, and notoriously made things hairy in a few games against the Brewers, but still finished the year with a 2.88 ERA, 81 Ks and 32 saves. It was enough to ensure the Reds would keep him on long-term.
2026 Prediction: Not sure if he keeps the ninth all year but he'll be worth the cash I think.

Chase Burns, a HUGE organizational piece for the Reds, was given some midyear MLB starting opportunities. Usually that means the major league starters are all going down, but honestly this was a more natural and expected development than usual, despite Burns struggling to keep the job. In 13 games, Burns had a 4.57 ERA, despite a welcome 67 Ks. 
2026 Prediction: Well, ideally the Reds won't really need Burns for a while, but...if the opportunity presents itself, he'll be way better, and take a big role in a postseason run.

One of the smartest things the Reds did at the deadline was bringing on Ke'Bryan Hayes, on his way to a gold glove. Hayes continued to be one of the best defensive infielders in the game, despite not being especially helpful at the plate, hitting .234 with 3 homers and 13 RBIs in 52 games. So they platooned him with either Miguel Andujar or Noelvi Marte mostly.
2026 Prediction: At some point this season, Ke'Bryan Hayes is going to start hitting, and people will be too shocked about it.

And then to relieve Burns, and honestly Martinez, of starting duties, the Reds traded for Zack Littell, who'd been great in Tampa this year. Littell continued the strong work in Cincinnati, going 2-0 with a 4.39 ERA and 42 Ks in 10 starts. Unfortunately he was responsible for the loss in Game 2 of the wild card series.
2026 Prediction: The Rays want to bring him back, and I say they do so, but only for a year. And it goes alright.

Coming Friday: I'm giving you all Xmas off, and then on friday you get the baseball version of coal in your stockings, some extra Rockies.