Trapped in the Drive-Thru

 

Evidently we have left the 'Grimace era' of 2024 Mets baseball.

Look, the Grimace thing was great because it revitalized a fanbase that had grown despondent after like 2 months. Mets fans should have hope for longer than that. But it was looking really bad for a while, and with next to no pitching, a lot of hitters not doing anything, and the culling of fan-favorite Tomas Nido [a friend of mine from college was especially devastated by this one], many Mets fans had already given up and begun the wait for the Jets to embarrass them further.

But all it took was for Grimace to throw out the first pitch at a Mets game and suddenly, the fire under this team had been lit.

There's conflicting reports as to what exactly happened, people are also saying there was a team meeting where things got really heated. There was a celebration Lindor was doing early on in the post-meeting era that involved looking at the dugout and miming repeated slaps, so people theorized that Mendoza said something like 'if you people don't start playing well, I'm going to slap all of you upside the face'. Whatever it is, people who were struggling earlier on, like Brandon Nimmo, Pete Alonso and Harrison Bader, started heating up and giving this lineup some definite oomph. Alonso and Nimmo both have 42 RBIs, Alonso has 16 homers, Mark Vientos has an .856 OPS and is looking like the answer at third, and Jose Iglesias is somehow batting .438 since being called up. Starling Marte's also having a great season at the plate, even if he's nowhere near as good defensively as he used to be. 

The big piece of the last few weeks of Mets upticking is J.D. Martinez, whose late 2024 development worried fans. But he's finally hit his stride, and he's hitting .287 with 31 RBIs and 9 homers in 48 games. This isn't quite peak J.D., but he's still an extremely good power hitter, and is the exact kind of consistent piece the Mets need, especially if McNeil isn't gonna cut it. Also important, Francisco Alvarez has been back, and he's been hitting .271 with 15 RBIs. Somehow the Mets are finding a working model going forward, and it involves Alvarez, Vientos, and, surprisingly, Tylor Megill and David Peterson.

And then, after a 7-game streak, the Rangers finally got tired of getting the snot beat out of them, and gave the Mets their first loss off the Grimace era. The Cubs handed them another one today. So the positive vibes may have been temporary, and it may not be a 'flick of a switch' thing that makes this team wholly amazing. But I see a lot more working on this team than I did before, and I think even in losses you're still seeing more things they'll be able to keep using moving forward. Plus, Lindor's finally feeling like a hero this year, and that always helps.

The Mets finally have something to fight for this season. Here's hoping they won't need an appearance from the Hamburglar to start winning again.

[I was gonna say 'Mayor McCheese' and then I realized Eric Adams isn't too far off...]

Coming Tomorrow- Anthony Rendon has become the go-to trope of 'guy who always gets injured and seems to want to get injured'. This guy is the opposite. 

Where There's a Wilyer..

 

In a season where the Braves conned them out of their ace before he pitched his best season in years, the star shortstop got injured immediately yet again, the pitching breakout of 2023 backtracked and the finally-MLB-competent 1st baseman got hurt after a month and a half, it's wild to me that the Red Sox are still 5 games over .500. You batter these guys, rip them off, throw them around, and they still come back and beat you.

It's outstanding how competent this core is now. Definitive answers have formed in all three outfield spots, catcher, shortstop and possibly 2nd base, and the makeshifts at 1st and right are still extremely competent. David Hamilton, Ceddanne Rafaela, Connor Wong and Jarren Duran are all looking like they could be sticking around a while at these positions in Boston. Wilyer Abreu might be the biggest surprise, he's turned into a really nice outfield bat, hitting .272 with 22 RBIs and 6 homers. He's been hurt for a lot of June but he should be back this week. You're also seeing viable replacement options in Enmanuel Valdez and Dominic Smith, in addition to the continued power presence of Rafael Devers. This lineup has really come together, and if a few more things get ironed out, and the injured guys are all ready next year, this lineup could compete.

Even more excitingly, the rotation combo of Tanner Houck, Kutter Crawford, Nick Pivetta and Brayan Bello is still really working out. Houck's having his best season to date, Crawford's building on a great 2023, Pivetta's improved after struggling last year, Bello's been shaky but still 7-4, and while Cooper Criswell was a decent fifth man, the Sox may have something else up their sleeve [what it is I'm not entirely sure looking at their Worcester options]. That elusive fifth man, which would have been Lucas Giolito or Garrett Whitlock had the injuries not struck, is keeping them from being elite but not completely holding them back from being good.

And that's really the thing with the Sox: they're flirting with being a great team. This past week they've looked ferocious against both the Yankees and Phillies, have fared extremely well against division rivals the Blue Jays and Rays, and are capable of winning big games by long margins. Only issue is that they're prone to get beaten almost as much as they beat others. They won big against the White Sox a couple weeks back, then the White Sox took two from them. The Orioles in particular have had no trouble with this team. They're still too inconsistent to really be seen as a league power, even if they've definitely come into their own.

I think the next month or so will be a good indicator of the Sox' stamina going forward. If they even out and prove they can compete, they could be a sleeper hit this fall.

Coming Tonight: It took him a little longer than the fans would have hoped, but this guy managed to find his swing eventually in a new uniform. 

Just Pretend Nothing Happened

 

Every so often you'll hear some guy on Twitter with no life and an American flag in his profile picture going on about how Trevor Bauer shouldn't be pitching in Mexico right now considering that he didn't do anything and that he should be on an MLB roster right now. And...while that's a really dicey issue that I feel like it's unwise to really weigh in on, it got me thinking about what our collective bar is for MLB players with controversial off-the-field antics. Just this year alone we've seen the Mets retire Darryl Strawberry's number, the resurrection of the Pete Rose Hall of Fame campaign after the Ippei Mizuhara incident, the banning of multiple MLB players, including Tucapita Marcano, Michael Kelly and local product Jay Groome, and the rehabilitation of both domestic abuser Marcell Ozuna and HGH abuser Fernando Tatis Jr. 

Tatis, for the record, is in full 'scandal? what scandal?' mode a couple years after the suspension, and is having another strong season in San Diego. He's currently hitting .280 with 14 home runs, 36 RBIs and an .822 OPS. This is the standard of hitting Padres fans expect from him, and with Machado down and Soto gone, he's fulfilling the expectation. So far he's also got a nice amount of All Star Game votes, and could be starting for the NL this year. I think that enough people have accepted that the doping Tatis did wasn't to the extent of others before him, and was an accidental breach of banned substances. Like nowhere near Manny Ramirez disavowing the rules, or people doing intentional steroid abuse or anything. This was a foresight by a young kid, so say the MLB viewing public. I still think it's slightly dubious, and would love to see some proof that he's learned his lesson, but I guess we'll all have to see together.

That's also the tactic Marcell Ozuna's using. He's hitting like hell, having his best season than years [even better than 2023], proving his worth, and Braves fans are mostly going 'well at least SOMEONE'S hitting'. It's very similar to the Nelson Cruz thing, where, yes, there's a mar on the record, but with the extent of production it's impossible for fans to completely dislike him. Yes, he probably did some bad shit at home, but Ozuna is reportedly behind that, and is also nowhere near as detestable as some other recent abuse cases [Domingo German, Aroldis Chapman, etc]. And so I think people are kinda letting him off the hook.

I think for the Padres, because they truly need a central figure like Tatis, it's harder for them to cut off any support for him. He's still in his prime, he's trying to get them back to glory, he's still fun to watch. And even people like Luis Arraez and Jackson Merrill have been bowing to him this year. Without him, there's no strong through line for the lineup. Ozuna is similar, but in that case it's mostly due to the injuries of people who would be more central.

I think Tatis is due for a nice resurgence, even if I'm not even sure he can get to the heights he was headed towards in 2019 and 2020. Hopefully he can still bring the Padres some good luck this year.

Coming Tomorrow- Surprisingly, one of the early favorites for AL Rookie of the Year.

Both Ends Burning

 

It's looking like the key injured pieces for the Rangers may be returning soon, as Max Scherzer is finishing his rehab assignment and is eyeing a return to the team. DeGrom might not be too far behind. And it couldn't come at a better time. Yes, the Rangers do have a full rotation, and a well-stocked one, consisting of Nate Eovaldi, Dane Dunning, Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney and Jon Gray, but...considering that the depth chart going into this season foreshadowed a Scherzer-DeGrom-Eovaldi-Gray-Bradford rotation...you see how that's less exciting, right?

Look, a lot of this is just the Rangers' poor luck, and this has already cost them Josh Jung, which is already pretty heartbreaking, but losing Cody Bradford after an insanely insane start to the season, not even getting Scherzer or deGrom til the season's half over, and already losing Eovaldi for some starts, just feels cruel at this point. In 2020, when they lost Corey Kluber immediately, they still had contingency options. Last year when Jake Odorizzi wasn't an option out of camp they still had Dunning, and eventually Bradford once deGrom got hurt. And they're extremely lucky they had viable starting options in this event. But...I dunno, some of this just doesn't feel as reassuring anymore.

I mean, they do have Michael Lorenzen, having fully recovered from his post-breakout shakiness last year. Lorenzen, who was honestly only a last minute addition of a signing, has been a steady, consistent option for the Rangers, which is wild in itself. He's got a 3.00 ERA in 12 starts, isn't overtaxing himself and is just being very smart with ball placement. Overthrowing got him in trouble with the Phils after the no-no, he seems to have learned his lesson and is just vexing batters rather than bowling them over. Lorenzen having a lower ERA than Eovaldi, Gray and Dunning is...surprising. 

And it's not like it's not understandable. Eovaldi throws hard, of course there's gonna be some wear and tear. Dunning's been on 6th man duty for 3 years, he's had to be on the whole time, of course he's sagging a bit. The point of this rotation was for people like Dunning and Heaney to take less important roles, not be this much in the spotlight. And the hope is that once Scherzer and deGrom come back, Dunning and Heaney can shift back into long relief roles and even out a bit. But...when they come back, are they gonna stay awhile? 

The lineup has Semien, Seager, Heim and Josh Smith surging, but Adolis Garcia has gone positively cold, Wyatt Langford's still struggling, Nathaniel Lowe's less accurate than usual, and the soon-to-return Evan Carter is looking far less confident than he did in the frigging playoffs last year. The thrill, even in June, seems to be gone. The Mariners are way ahead, the Astros are gaining, the momentum's just not there. And the hope is that it soon will be, and the returning pitchers will bring some, but...is that too much to put upon two guys who've famously missed a lot of games the past two years? 

It's so indistinct. A complete 180 from last year. Sad to see, honestly.

Coming Tonight: Last time the votes were tallied, it was looking like he had a nice shot at starting an All Star Game. Is...is he back??

Bear Witness

 

After looking impressive through their first month and a half of MLB play, the 2024 Chicago Cubs completely hit a wall. And thus, they've spent the last month or so just completely falling apart. Which honestly, even if it's a well timed skid by an overconfident club, is kinda hard to watch.

Look, even at their current state, the Cubs began this season with an amazing amount of hubris. They managed to get Craig Counsell to come over, from their chief divisional rival, and sign a contract to manage there for the foreseeable future. Forget screwing over David Ross. They got a great manager, and the fans were really impressed. Then they re-sign Cody Bellinger, get Shota Imanaga, who's still excellent, and wrangled Hector Neris over and prevented the Yankees from being stuck with him when he inevitably started tanking in the ninth again. They go into the 2024 season as overwhelming favorites, even over the Reds and Brewers, solely because they have the money to get people and the organizational depth to build off it.

And then the season starts and lol Cubs.

It's not without a conscious effort to not suck. The Cubs' pitching is very good, but saddled with terrible luck. Justin Steele has his ERA under 4, but he's still 0-3 and nowhere near his 2023 self. Kyle Hendricks will have amazing starts, as he just did, and also many terrible starts. Then, just when Ben Brown figures out how to start, he gets hurt. I'll give the Cubs credit for making Hayden Wesneski and Drew Smyly, and Luke Little, into halfway decent bullpen options.

But...the strong, varied offensive core of this Cubs team just hasn't shown up. Dansby Swanson, one of the 2023 standouts, is having a weaker year, he's only hitting .214. Nico Hoerner's only hitting .243. Seiya Suzuki and Cody Bellinger are in the .260s, nowhere near their highs. The only Cubs hitter with an OPS over .800 is...former Dodgers prospect Michael Busch, who has somehow become the Cubs' first baseman and is surprisingly hitting really damned well. I mean, in all actuality he's hitting as well as Suzuki and Bellinger, but his accuracy and consistency has given him the edge. He's had less at-bats than his contemporaries and more success in those at-bats. It's also just fun that he's suddenly come up and become a major factor in this Cubs team. A lot like Patrick Wisdom in 2021, though...Wisdom, like other establishment Cubs, isn't doing much at all.

It's really just Busch and Ian Happ who have WARs higher than 1.0, and with Happ it's because of his defense probably. So that's a lot of people who are here, and are healthy, and just aren't hitting. Even Pete Crow-Armstrong, who was hitting initially, has cooled down and isn't doing a ton.

The Cubs are currently in fourth place, and though they've improved slightly, they need to unstick themselves from the mud and get back to what they were doing before if they have any hope of looking intimidating at all this year. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of the few starters in Texas that hasn't gotten hurt yet.

Marsh Lands

 

The Royals seem to have a lot figured out. This year so far has been the perfect balance of homegrown youth success [Brady Singer, Maikel Garcia, Michael Massey] and key acquisitions [Cole Ragans, Seth Lugo, Garrett Hampson], all behind Witt and Perez. And yet the funny thing is that as this rotation was set up, one of the people I didn't think much of has become something of a secret weapon for them.

Because in the Spring, you could see what this rotation was becoming, and I was going 'alright, so Brady Singer, Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha are gonna be up here in the front, then Cole Ragans if he's for real, and then Kyle Wright whenever he shows up, and I guess Daniel Lynch takes the last spot. I didn't think there was much room for Alec Marsh, who started some games last year in KC. And yet, as Wright got hurt, and Lynch struggled in spring starts, Marsh moved his way up in the depth chart and wound up starting out of camp.

So far, despite a slight injury break, Alec Marsh has had some really nice moments this year. The moment that put him on my radar was holding the Yankees to 1 hit during the series we had with them. He's a nice durable arm, he goes late into games, only recently he's been getting blown up but he hasn't made a habit of it. He's a nice extra guy to have around, and even if Royals fans would prefer to get Kris Bubic back, he's a decent trade-off. He's struggled more than a lot of Royals starters, but I just see what he can do when he's really on, and I think they're gonna see a lot more of that as they go. 

That's really why the Royals have felt so strong this year, even the depth options are feeling better realized. We've already gone over the fact that Freddy Fermin, the backup catcher, could be a starter on any other team. Nick Loftin is coming into his own at 2nd while covering for Massey. Sam Long has been impressive in his first 10 games in middle relief. Dairon Blanco, the go-to pinch runner, has 14 stolen bases. Even if the outfield isn't great, Kyle Isbel's still an excellent defensive weapon, taking after Alex Gordon honestly. There's so much more to this team than there used to be, and having Bobby Witt in the midst of a prime season certainly helps that.

The real tricky part is gonna be getting past the Guardians, but I think Bobby Witt right now is better than Jose Ramirez. May be controversial, but there you go.

Coming Tonight: The Dodgers didn't have room for him, but he's certainly gotten going in Chicago. 

Their Truist Selves

 

Something is missing in this Braves team. I don't just mean the lack of Ronald Acuna, Spencer Strider and now Michael Harris. It just feels like the central core of this team matters less than it ever has.

I think about it this way. The Braves developed this team around Acuna, with Ozzie Albies, Austin Riley, Matt Olson, Sean Murphy and Marcell Ozuna forming around them, and developed these young pitchers like Max Fried, Strider, Ian Anderson and Bryce Elder to inherit the team once Charlie Morton left. And right now the people doing the most for the Braves have been the afterthought guys. Reynaldo Lopez is still the team's best pitcher, he's got a 1.69 ERA and 70 Ks. Marcell Ozuna is responsible for the most offensive production of anybody, he has 20 homers and 63 RBIs. People like Chris Sale, Jesse Chavez and Travis d'Arnaud have had major hero moments for this team. And the core is...kinda there? Doing their best? But they're not the main event, like how Judge is in New York or Harper is in Philly or Ohtani and Betts are in LA. 

Like...Albies is hitting .260 this year. Arcia's hitting .220. Riley's hitting .240, and is lucky his defense is great. Murphy's juuust heating up again after struggling with injuries. Elder's tanked this year. It's really just Max Fried who's actually been performing to his potential. Everybody else is kinda letting the reinforcements take the lead, and...that only works to a certain degree. Like yes, it's nice the Braves are getting vintage Chris Sale this year, or it's nice that Marcell Ozuna's hit enough long balls to make everybody forget about the domestic abuse charges, but this team looked so complete last year. And now they're just sorta...hoping they pull through, I guess.

I also look at their approach to the ninth inning vs. the last few years. Cause they've layered relief options on top of each other, and made sure there were enough reinforcements barring catastrophe. The 2021 run had Mark Melancon, Will Smith and eventually Chris Martin and Richard Rodriguez. And then as people left you just saw Raisel Iglesias sort of get handed the ninth. Like 'well it's either you or A.J. Minter, maybe it's best that you take it'. And he's been good as a closing man, which shouldn't be too shocking. He's got 19 saves in 29 games, he's reliable as heck. But you have to think like 'if he goes, then who takes the ninth?' Minter? Pierce Johnson maybe? It's not as layered as usual.

Look, I'm seeing this Braves team on Sunday. It's not 100% certain who they're giving the ball to. I'd guess Fried, but it was supposed to be Hurston Waldrep, the only Brave with a posher name than 'Dansby Swanson', and he got hurt. I'm still thinking it'll be a tight game but I don't know how much of a punch this team can throw without the main source of energy. But hey, maybe Marcell Ozuna will do something. 

Coming Tomorrow- Of all the people slated to start games for the Royals this year, the one I was the most unsure about. And of course he's been great.

Arm City

 

It's weird that, even without John Means, Tyler Wells, Kyle Bradish and Dean Kremer, the Orioles still have a very intimidating rotation. And that's not because Albert Suarez just gave every Yankee fan in America a heart attack last night.

This is the kind of pitching depth the Orioles had been waiting to build for years. Once Means came up, he was supposed to be the start of something. Him not staying healthy enough to see it is another thing entirely, but without him, we don't get Kremer, Wells, Bruce Zimmermann, Grayson Rodriguez and Bradish coming in and making something count. 

And so now we're at the point where the Orioles have such an expansive homegrown pitching core that they can take on extraneous reinforcements. Hence Suarez, who nobody can really hit right now, thought the Yanks certainly got to him last night. And now Cade Povich, who came over in the Jorge Lopez deal [which has taken on a new meaning now], has been wonderful in his first two starts of the season, with his second start being a scoreless, dominant affair against the Braves. That this sort of b-team, which also includes Cole Irvin, who's also been wonderful this year, has been keeping things together in Baltimore this year is very reassuring.

Also reassuring is the quality of the top two guys, which has stayed unmoved all year. Obviously Corbin Burnes was an 'exactly what it says on the tin' type acquisition; you get Burnes, he's gonna be hard to hit. So far he's 8-2 with a 2.14 ERA and 89 Ks in 15 starts, which is pretty incredible, even by his standards. Undoubtedly he'll be making an All-Star team, and hopefully Rubenstein will ensure that it's the first of many. And then you have Grayson Rodriguez, primed for long term success this year. In 12 starts, he's been 8-2 with a 3.20 ERA and 77 strikeouts, and he's finally proving his MLB durability after years of being a top prospect. Last year was shakier, but the bones were there, and now Rodriguez is as trustworthy as they all thought he'd be.

The Orioles so far have matched up decently against the Yankees, though New York getting the edge in game 1 came down to superior offense and superior starting pitching. But that's subject to change, considering Povich and Irvin will get chances against Gerrit Cole and Luis Gil later on this week. And while the Yanks neutralized Gunnar Henderson in Game 1, with the fire that's now building between these two, who knows if he'll stay dormant this series.

Yanks-O's is fun again, after years of being lopsided, and I'm very much here for it. Just maybe cut back on the whole 'eye for an eye' thing please.

Coming Tonight: He's closed for many teams, but they've all been teams that wear red. And this is only the latest. 

Flick of the Wrist

 

Boy, it's a bad time to be the wrist of a future hall of fame hitter.

In the last few days, two of the biggest players in the game, and two MVP candidates, just got handed very worrying injuries of almost the exact same type. Mookie Betts was the first, needing to miss 2 months with a hand injury. And then tonight, Aaron Judge gets hit on the hand with a pitch, exits, and as I write this it's not certain whether or not he'll need to miss time. Considering what amazing seasons both of these guys were having, this is the worst case scenario, honestly; losing Betts severely wounds the Dodgers, and the prospect of losing Judge puts the incredible Yankee start into jeopardy.

The Dodgers may honestly have more to lose. They already began the season extremely injury-bitten, and are still without Clayton Kershaw, Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and Emmett Sheehan. Now they are without Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Michael Grove and Bobby Miller, in addition to Max Muncy, who recently got hurt. So already, they're on fumes as far as the pitching is concerned, and are hoping that James Paxton, Gavin Stone and Tyler Glasnow are a strong enough core for the present moment. They got Walker Buehler back, and he's been decent, if flawed. They're getting Miller back this week, he should hopefully be in better condition than earlier in the year. There's no real news on when the big three will be back, so hopefully the unit works enough in that interim.

But with one less superstar in the lineup, the flaws are going to become more evident. Miguel Vargas has been thrust back into short, and it's going about as well as it did last year. Gavin Lux, even after all the wait to get him starting again, hasn't been worth it, and neither has Chris Taylor. Andy Pages is talented but still isn't hitting that well. Heyward and Rojas are good, but they've both done better. 

One of the takeaways of this team, besides the obvious ones, is that when you need him to, Teoscar Hernandez will absolutely annihilate a baseball. He did it a bunch of times during the Yankees series, and right now he's got 17 homers and 51 RBIs. As good as he was with Seattle last year, this is a steadier, more potent Hernandez, and he's been the spoiler on a number of occasions. The Dodgers had enough strong people in well defined roles, and now they have a nice power bat to make sure it's not all on Ohtani.

This Dodgers team still has enough to get by on, and they'll likely stay ahead for a bit. But I don't know if they'll be as potent without Betts, and I'm guessing it'll be a long series of weeks while they wait for him to come back.

Coming Tomorrow- Not the starter that may have hurt Judge's wrist, but AN Orioles starter.

Trident and True

 

Julio Rodriguez does this thing where he takes a couple months to take off, just to give you the idea that he won't. It's happened in all of his MLB seasons to this point. Remember how his 2022 rookie year got off to a slow start only for him to go into full Julio mode and win the hearts of the MLB? Remember how last year he had a slow April but still ended up making an All-Star team and coming 4th in the MVP voting? Because he's still only 24, he's not at his full potential yet, and I have a feeling that in the next couple years, we will see him hitting .300 in April, and then all of y'all are gonna be running for cover.

Right now, Julio's doing...alright. He's hitting .268, he's got 29 RBIs and 7 homers, plus 16 steals, but you're seeing the RBIs and production begin to accelerate in the last few games. The one thing Julio is leading the league in right now is strikeouts, and yes, when I saw him in the Bronx, he certainly struck out a couple times. But again...this is around the point he kicks into high gear, and you're seeing things begin to pick up. He and Josh Rojas are tied for the highest WAR of the hitters on the Mariners, and I can already tell you that Julio's more crucial to this team's success than Rojas is. The other night he had another hero moment, and, again, you're seeing those begin to pick up. I think he's gonna catch fire this month.

It's about time someone did in this lineup, anyhow. The pitching's been much-heralded, even with Bryan Woo skipping a start, but not until recently has the hitting been anything at all. Rojas, Raleigh and Rodriguez have been improving, and now you're seeing Dominic Canzone, Luke Raley and...somehow Victor Robles all joining in on the fun. It's somewhat disheartening that Ryan Bliss and Tyler Locklear, and the since-demoted Jonatan Clase, haven't completely taken to the majors yet, given the pressure surrounding their promotions, but hopefully they get there. 

Look, the Mariners are in first because they're outpitching everybody. That is abundantly clear. Nobody's hitting Gilbert, Castillo, Kirby, Gilbert, Hancock or Woo. They're just not. And nobody's hitting Andres Munoz either. I think what's keeping them in first is the slow build of the lineup, and guys like Julio and Raleigh finally showing up and keeping this team from being an all-arm, no run support type of team [like they kinda were in May]. The Rangers can outhit these guys, that's for sure, but this series proved that they really can't get past this rotation, and that's gonna go a long way as the season rolls on.

As for Julio? He let you catch your breath. Be grateful for that.

Coming Tonight: A former Mariner ironically, wondering what exactly he's gonna do without a newly-injured star player.

Ahead by a Central-ry

 

There are a few deep moats between division leaders and the competition right now. Both the Mariners and Dodgers are ahead of their competition, and the Phillies famously have a lot on Atlanta. But the most crucial lead is the one the Brewers have in the NL Central. Because literally every team in this division is somewhat competitive right now, and the Brewers are the only ones over .500. 

Everybody else is just in a line, a couple games apart from each other, struggling to stay in it. The Cubs have dropped to the bottom and are trying desperately to get back up. The Pirates and Reds are juggling 3rd and 4th. And the Cardinals, simply because the competition is 'who can be the most mediocre?', are ahead. And yet, despite being wrung out by the Phils a few weeks ago, the Brewers are comfortably ahead and looking very good.

A lot of that is because, after a few slumpy years, Christian Yelich is back to being the central figure of this team. He's probably not gonna perform at the heights of his 2017-2019 run again, but he's still a great hitter with slightly less outfield perks. So far Yelich is hitting .333 with 31 RBIs and 14 steals. It is a season that's already gotten him All Star Game votes, and it's a season that's ensuring his hero status among Brewers fans. Because I think there was some worry that he'd be done being relevant after tanking in 2021. The last two seasons have been a lot better for Yelich, and he's still just as crucial to this team. It's also a lot better than the brunt of the work isn't solely on him, as William Contreras and Brice Turang are also having exceptional seasons and lifting this team further.

You're also seeing Blake Perkins and Joey Ortiz come into their own as solid role players. I think there's still too many replacement level guys in major positions [Jake Bauers, Gary Sanchez], but this lineup is still pretty versatile, and there's enough guys who can show up and deliver when you need. Rhys Hoskins...I mean, he's doing kinda what he did in Philly, one-dimensional power, but you live for the moments where he's on. I'm also thrilled that, after Devin Williams and Abner Uribe went down, Trevor Megill of all people became a solid enough ninth inning option, and already has 12 saves. 

The Brewers, as they are always, are the kind of good team that goes under the radar and you may not think about often, but is still capable of big things. Unfortunately, this hasn't resulted in especially great playoff luck for the Brewers. And the rotation is holding me back from thinking that'll change this year. Breaking up the big three, and putting the emphasis on people like Colin Rea, Bryse Wilson and Tobias Myers certainly is a choice, and it'll be interesting to see if this pays off. But for now, if Yelich, Contreras and Turang are gonna be this good, then who knows?

Coming Tomorrow- It's a decent idea for him to start showing up a bit more, y'know, to help the pitching and all. 

Fry'd and True

 

The Guardians are the anti-Mariners. Their starting pitching isn't the greatest and you see a lot of high ERAs out there, but even if you can get hits off them, the Guardians can get hits off of you in so many creative ways. You already have a guy hitting .386, and another guy with 62 RBIs, but what if I told you there was a superutility-catcher with a .300 average as well? 

David Fry, undeniably one of the breakout stars of this Guardians team, has been a surprise success, and one of the most heralded utility men in the game. So far Fry has played games in the outfield, at third, at first, and behind the plate, and he's above average at all of them except for first. His catching skills have been very useful, considering that the other two catching options, Bo Naylor and Austin Hedges, can't hit. But the idea is also that he can start somewhere and slide in somewhere else, meaning Naylor can keep getting reps without being hung out to dry. 

And in addition to Fry's versatility, he's hitting really well right now. He's got a .317 average with 8 homers and 30 RBIs. For a utilityman, that's pretty damned good. Wherever they put him, it ensures another great hitter alongside Ramirez, Naylor, Kwan and Gimenez, and just from those five guys you see so many different kinds of hitters. Kwan and Fry are two very different kinds of contact bats, Naylor and Ramirez are different types of power hitters, Fry and Gimenez are different types of multi-tool guys. And they all work. Yes, it'd be nice if some of the prospects started hitting, as I think Johnathan Rodriguez, Kyle Manzardo and, well, Bo Naylor, were supposed to be more potent than they are right now. But the heart of the lineup works, and Jose Ramirez [who evidently had a very nice father's day] is pulling his weight at the center of the lineup.

And even if the rotation's not as good as last year, the bullpen's been fabulous. You have all these newer guys like Tim Herrin, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis, who no one can hit. You have Emmanuel Clase still holding court as one of the best closers in the bigs. And you have Hentges, Sandlin and even Scott Barlow staying consistent for this team. They may be without James Karinchak, Trevor Stephan and Eli Morgan, but the bullpen's still pretty strong, and is keeping the rotation woes from killing the team.

The Guardians are not just good, they're interesting. So many fun stories coming from this team. Fry's just one of them. If they keep this up they'll be bringing a really intriguing team to the postseason, and who knows what'll happen then.

Coming Tonight: A former MVP who's made up a ton of ground since his recent down years.

The Downside of Overexposure

 

It's fitting in a year where my two favorite teams are among the best in baseball that two of my least favorite teams have acted as the spoilers this month. The Cardinals' Alec Burleson famously sent a comeback to Ranger Suarez's hand, which he thankfully rebounded from. And then the Red Sox, who I was actually beginning to tolerate, have used this weekend to chip away at both of these teams, starting with the Phils and moving to the Yanks, during an explosive homestand.

So while both the Yankees and the Phillies are still looking very good, this week has definitely humbled both of them a tad. It's...wild that the Red Sox were the chief force to do this, but...I mean, honestly, good for them.

The Phillies have had the hardest time out of everybody, as they followed their Sox series with an extremely tense back-and-forth with the Orioles. They managed to secure a win in extras to start it off, but the O's wouldn't make it that simple for the rest of it. I think the way the AL East is structured, the O's have the toughest schedule of the two top competitors, and so they may be a more formidable team than the Yanks [at least right now], even if they have the worse record. So the O's rolling out Henderson, Santander and Rutschman against these guys, and battering down even Aaron Nola and Zack Wheeler, that's understandable. It's not really a 'something is wrong with this team' moment, the O's are just better at this specific point in time. 

And the Phils are still doing so much right. Ranger Suarez is still unhittable, and he's 10-1 with a 1.77 ERA in June, which is pretty fantastic. Bryce Harper is exceeding the standard, and has 15 homers and 46 RBIs with a .901 OPS. Edmundo Sosa's been so good at short that it's been sparking serious conversations about what to do when Trea Turner returns this week. Marsh's injury was such a non-factor that he's already back, and that at least prepares this team more for a month or so without Realmuto. So the team's still great, and with the Padres coming to town I'm not exactly worried about losing much momentum. 

The Yankees aren't exactly worrying me either, but seeing as I'm seeing them in a week I've gotta be at least a little worried. This Sox series has been their most substantial bloodloss since the Dodgers were in town. LA I can understand, they had Mookie and Yamamoto healthy that week, they're also a really well-put-together team. The Red Sox just have enough guys that can slow us down. They got to Carlos Rodon last night, and we couldn't even get to Cooper Criswell. You're seeing new guys like Enmanuel Valdez and Jamie Westbrook get RBIs against us, all while Volpe, Dugie and Gleyber stay silent. This is not the ideal outcome for a Yanks-Sox series when we know we're better than them.

Even if Rodon and Cortes have slipped, the pitching is still better than most teams. We're probably gonna get Cole back within the week, but even if there's a setback I'm loving Cody Poteet's stuff. It's looking like I'll be seeing Marcus Stroman next Sunday, and I'm perfectly fine with those odds, even if his away ERA is lower than his home ERA [which we knew would be the case]. The 'pen is still pretty good. Soto's injury was exaggerated and he's back to what he was doing before. Stanton and Judge are hot [Judge hit #26 as I was writing this]. This team's been looking pretty complete, and I really hope they keep hanging on.

People are gonna wanna use this weekend to undercut the legitimacy of these two teams, and I still think they're the best in the league, and have so much more to build. These two teams will face off at the end of July. It'll be interesting to see what they look like at that point.

Coming Tomorrow- The summation of what it means to be a super-ute in 2024.

Breaking Rox in the Hot Sun

 

The Rockies only have three wins so far in June. All of them were by one point, two of them were against the Cardinals. The rest, the losses, are games where the team gave up 4 or more runs. 

The Colorado Rockies: The Wins Are Close, But The Losses Sure Aren't.

It's honestly wild that Cal Quantrill still has a 3.30 ERA. Even Austin Gomber's has gone above 4 at this point, despite his strong start. And Quantrill isn't a particularly powerful pitcher, he's only struck out 56, but he's not giving up many runs, or hits. He just keeps batters down, and doesn't make many debilitating mistakes. He's 6-4 right now, and clearly the best starter on this team. I am worried about the long term success of somebody like Quantrill heading up a rotation, as in San Diego in Cleveland he was always better at being a 4th or 5th guy. I mean, so were Gomber and Hudson and now they're sort of struggling anyhow.

The fundamental issue here is that, with Justin Lawrence and Jake Bird hurt, the next nearest bullpen pieces, guys like Tyler Kinley, Nick Mears and Anthony Molina, are getting massacred. All of those guys have ERAs over 6.50, and those...are the main options. At least Victor Vodnik and Jalen Beeks are better, but batters are even getting to THEM now. And the wild part is that Mears, Kinley and Molina combined don't have as many losses as Dakota Hudson. I just picture Freeland, Marquez and Senza just sitting on the bench in the bullpen shaking their heads every night.

There are people hitting well but many of them, including Elias Diaz, Jacob Stallings and possibly even Charlie Blackmon if they want to be particularly cruel, might be gone in a month or so. Diaz has been an option for many teams needing catching help, and Stallings flirting with .300 as a backup is only boosting his own appeal. McMahon, Tovar and Doyle have all fallen into place, they're doing the best they can. They've thrown in Adael Amador at 2nd, and he hasn't really done anything yet but he keeps threatening to. Jones and Montero still aren't hitting, Goodman and Toglia still haven't shown up and Bryant's still hurt. So the struggle continues.

This is very much like 2014 or 2015 for Colorado, because you can see some of these pieces begin to crop up and inherit the team. If Ezequiel Tovar continues on this pace he might be yet another legendary shortstop for the Rockies. It just sucks that it continues to be such a pitching suck, regardless of how hard anyone's trying to not be lit up in Coors Field. 

Coming Tonight: Setting a team record for wins to start a career should have been a tipoff that he'd be something. But we all wondered if he'd ever be something again. Well...turns out he still had a lot left to show for himself. 

O'Hoppe Day

 

It had to be weird being a Phillies fan, coming back from the loss to Baltimore today and reading that the Angels won a tight game over San Francisco thanks to RBIs from Logan O'Hoppe and Mickey Moniak. Yes, Brandon Marsh is working perfectly fine for the Phils, but they've gotta be thinking about the catching situation without Realmuto going 'man, if only we still had O'Hoppe.'

Logan O'Hoppe is one of those versatile, multifaceted players that every team needs a few of, and if they're a catcher, even better. O'Hoppe so far has been hitting up a storm, with today's monster home run his 9th of the season. He's a decent defensive catcher, certainly no Realmuto, but considering that the team moved on from Max Stassi and demoted Matt Thaiss to give him a shot, the okay defense isn't enough of a liability. O'Hoppe's great because he can hit for contact and power, and yet thanks to Taylor Ward, Luis Rengifo and Zach Neto, he doesn't necessarily need to be the star of the lineup. He's just a very impressive piece to have, and today's win definitely showed that.

Without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Angels have needed to draw from some very strange places to stay competent, and it's kept them out of last. We've spoken of the insane comeback of Kevin Pillar, who's still hitting over .300 with a 1.022 OPS. after a month. But you're seeing all these odd types of players contributing positively to this team. Willie Calhoun, as he did last year in New York, has been a surprisingly peppy bench bat, he's hitting .290 with 9 RBIs in 35 games. Luis Guillorme has been a contact smash already in 14 games in Anaheim, hitting .286 with 14 hits in 21 games. You're also seeing Michael Stefanic come in favorably for the 2nd base job. And Jo Adell, after years of trying, is finally mastering MLB production, with 31 RBIs and 12 homers. 

And look, even if Reid Detmers has fallen off in the last month, you're seeing great starts from Tyler Anderson, Patrick Sandoval, Jose Soriano and Griffin Canning. It's a surprisingly tight rotation, even without a clear anchor like Ohtani. Plus you still have Carlos Estevez as a reliable 9th inning guy. 

This is obviously not a terrific Angels team, but so much is working, and games like today's prove that you can't completely write this team off. It looks like they're headed in the right direction, even if they may still be a long shot to compete. But hey, y'never know if Mike Trout's eventual return will give this team the fire it needs.

Coming Tomorrow- The second of two starters surprisingly tearing it up in Denver this year. 

Vote of No(lan) Confidence

 

Right now there is only one team in the NL Central that is over .500. Due to the Cubs slumping for a bit, the Reds' come-up sputtering, and the Pirates still just being mediocre, the other four teams have entered a tight race for 2nd, where everyone is within a game or a game and a half of each other.

And y'know who's in second? The team that's been steadily rising since mid-May without many major mishaps, the damned St. Louis Cardinals. 

I got in trouble a while back for saying the 2014 Orioles were leading the division by default when they actually had a really nice team that should have won it all. So I think saying the Cardinals are in 2nd by default is a lot less controversial. Yes, they're winning games, and they're keeping runs down, but they're not a good team, at least not entirely.

The fundamental issue with this Cardinals team, as it has been, is that two of its biggest stars, Goldschmidt and Arenado, are past their prime, and the other, Willson Contreras, is hurt. That leaves a lot of lesser pieces left to pick up the slack, and while some have, like Masyn Winn, Nolan Gorman and Sonny Gray, there are too many fundamental issues with many of these guys for there to be unilateral success. Alec Burleson is a flawed player, because he's decent enough in both the hitting and fielding categories, but he's spotty. He doesn't show up consistently. He does make contact and it goes right for Ranger Suarez's hand. He's not the consistent, impressive contact hitter that should drive a team, like Winn, but more the streakier, less consistent clutch guy that only gets something done when it's most inconvenient. 

Nolan Gorman is a little better than that, though. He's succeeded as a power hitter, and has 15 home runs and 33 RBIs. He also has 83 strikeouts and only a .760 OPS. Clearly there are limits. Gorman was one of those mega-prospect types the Cardinals brought up expecting big things from, and while he has been very good, I don't think he's as well-rounded as people predicted. Winn is pretty well rounded, he can hit and play great defense. Gorman is missing a few pieces, honestly.

And while Kyle Gibson, Lance Lynn and Miles Mikolas are pitching well, they all have higher WHIPs and ERAs than they should. In my opinion, you really should only have one of this type of pitcher, the 35+ veteran who can eat innings and get by without overexerting himself, who may be slightly past his prime but still smart and controlling enough to be trusted. The Cardinals are almost all guys like this. Sonny Gray is still in his prime but even he's had more moments of humanity than last year. The only guy under thirty in this rotation is Andre Pallante, who's been given the go to start again and is doing...alright with it.

And yet the team is still winning games, close ones as well. There's definite flaws with this Cardinals team, not just on the field but organizationally, as many people are overhearing how exhausting it is to play for this team from current and former players. And yes, it's still only a matter of time before Oli Marmol loses his job. But right now they're in 2nd and playing better than their competitors. This is the kind of luck that only shines upon this kind of team, and hopefully they make the most of this moment and start fixing the fundamental issues they have before it runs out.

Coming Tonight: One of the most even trades of the last few years sent this guy to LA, and it's gone great for him. 

Before He Sheets

 

I will give the 2024 White Sox credit, their series with the Mariners was positively gripping.

It ended up being a pretty fair matchup, as both teams have had stars in the starting rotation, and both teams have had several cases of the lineup just not showing up. So seeing games where both pitchers go far without giving up many runs made for a cool and impressive atmosphere, not befitting of a last-place team who'll likely be losing 100 games. Even if the Sox only ended up winning one of these, it was still a tense matchup between Garrett Crochet and Emerson Hancock. Still, even the pitchers that started in losses, including Jonathan Cannon, Erick Fedde and newcomer Drew Thorpe, only gave up a run or so, and mostly have the bullpen to blame for further tomfoolery. 

So I will give the White Sox that credit. Even while stinking it up, they've managed to compile a fairly strong rotation of people like Crochet, Fedde, Cannon, Thorpe and honestly Chris Flexen who can go deep into games and keep runs down. Unfortunately I'm not sure if Fedde, Flexen and Crochet will still be around in a month or so. I'm not even sure if it's a good business move to trade those guys, as Fedde's signed til next year and Flexen and Crochet are still under team control for a bit, but like...they're good players and the Sox are trying to rebuild.

I can say with some certainty that Luis Robert Jr. will probably be dealt this year. He's the only real tentpole piece left on this team, the majority of the contract is through, and even in an injury-shortened year he's shown elite numbers and big hits. Robert has 7 homers and 10 RBIs in 16 games. Most of this team don't have the kind of production to hit those numbers until a month of play has passed. Having him on this team, healthy and hitting, will give the Sox a slight boost, and give them a bit more of a reason to exist, but it'll make it very clear how much he needs to be on a more balanced roster as well. 

The rest of the Sox is just a mix of mediocrity all throughout. Gavin Sheets leads the team in RBIs with 28  but is also hitting .238. Korey Lee is outhitting Martin Maldonado and starting behind the plate, but I feel like if he's trying to do this to stick it to Houston then he should probably know that they actually have a decent backup this year and have already forgotten who both of them are. Oscar Colas and Corey Julks are hitting consistently at an MLB level, but the team they'll be inheriting is not the one they thought they would a couple years ago. And Andrew Vaughn is hitting .225, which is enough to get Sox fans to want Jose Abreu back, EVEN NOW.

It's still a dire situation, even if the pitching picture has improved. You have to hope that the steps are being taken to improve the quality of play but I don't know how many people have to leave for that to happen at this point.

Coming Tomorrow- You blink and all of the sudden this guy's hitting well and his team's in 2nd. 

Lend Me a Tanner

 Here is how dire the situation is in Miami currently. Recently, the Marlins had a promotion that advertised that before the game, there would be an onfield celebration of Miami as the setting for the Bad Boys movies, led by Bad Boys: Ride or Die stars Will Smith, no not the pitcher for the Royals nor the catcher for the Dodgers, and Martin Lawrence. Additionally, Lawrence and Smith would partake in the ceremonial first pitch, clad in modern Marlins jerseys adorned with the surnames of their Bad Boys characters.

Let's think about this. The plan to get Marlins fans in the seats is not by, say, putting money into the team or making it an entertaining product, but doing a promotional appearance by two people who are not Marlins fans, one of which infamously defied SNL censors by making derogatory jokes about feminine hygiene, the other whom committed a sin so heinous that he shouldn't even be allowed into LoanDepot Park...that being growing up as a Philadelphia sports fan. 

That's not a great advertising hook! 'Come, Marlins fans, and see our special guest, a Phillies fan! And if you don't, there's a non-zero percent chance he will punch you!'

The thing is, Miami has been a great hub for the modern cultural conversation. One of the current ambassadors for hispanic presence in baseball is Marcello Hernandez, an SNL player who's getting positively huge right now. Hernandez is a Miami native and Marlins fan, and features prominently in promotional material for MLB's Beisbol initiative, alongside ballplayers from spanish-speaking countries. The rebranding the Marlins had in 2019 was successful in staying true to the Miami area's Cuban and hispanic roots, as have the City Connect uniforms. The Marlins are very much a great symbol of the rise of Miami as an American culture point. You're seeing way more modern Marlins caps than you did Rainbow Fish caps in the 2010s, because it means something to be a Marlins fan, or from Miami, now.

Now...if only the team didn't suck. 

I haven't had this much trouble finding players to customize from a team, THIS EARLY, in years. Nobody is playing well. The people who were, like Ryan Weathers and Bryan Hoeing, are hurt. There are multiple players who have succeeded in the majors that the Marlins are keeping in Jacksonville for no reason, while Nick Fortes, Christian Bethancourt and Tim Anderson get to remain on the roster. The team's best hitter, Jazz Chisholm Jr., has a 1.0 WAR. And the team's best pitcher, Tanner Scott, a reliever with a 1.30 ERA, looks to be getting the hell out of Miami. This team was not this dire in 2023, but they're extremely dire now, and just don't have any starters with an ERA lower than 5 or any starting lineup pieces hitting more than .250. 

The White Sox are a worse team, but at least they have Erick Fedde, Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert, at least for the moment. The Marlins have nobody like that, and they're struggling to get by without any people who can consistently be the hero. And it's really depressing to watch.

I want the Marlins to improve solely to meet the demands of Miami's burgeoning moment. But I don't know how long it'll take for them to get there.

Coming Tonight: A hitter for, somehow, a worse team. 

End of Jays?

 

With Cavan Biggio being picked up by the Dodgers, there's a sense that whatever process began in 2019 with the arrival of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette and Cavan Biggio has since dissipated. The attempts to strengthen the team have resulted in dealing away great central pieces like Teoscar Hernandez and Lourdes Gurriel, letting great trades like Marcus Semien and Matt Chapman walk away in free agency, and sitting on contracts like George Springer's and Kevin Kiermaier's as they age out of their primes. 

And thus we have this current moment, where the team's circling last, and they're seriously considering trading Vladimir Guerrero Jr.

I remember the buzz in 2018 about Bichette and Guerrero, and even if the Jays weren't terrible in 2018 there was a sense that these young kids would be a new foundation that would bring the team back to relevancy. And in a sense they did, as Vlad made a few Home Run Derbys, has made 3 straight All-Star teams, nearly won an MVP in 2021, has a home run title and, even in a lesser year, still feels like one of the best hitters in the game. Same with Bo Bichette, who's already led the league in hits twice, hit for .300 three times and has shown more versatility and range than even his dad. With these two, and a few others, the Jays made the playoffs 3 times in the 2020s...though they couldn't get past the Wild Card round each time. Last year stung the most, as it was the confirmation that this team, no matter who was at the helm, just couldn't succeed in October.

And with the current fourth place position and sub-.500 record, the Jays are seriously thinking about whether or not it's worth it to keep competing. Next year alone the Jays will lose Yusei Kikuchi, Yimi Garcia, Kevin Kiermaier and Danny Jansen, and are coming to the end of contracts with Vlad Jr., Jordan Romano and Bo Bichette. Already, this team has openly discussed dealing some of these guys, even Vlad. And that's very upsetting, considering that at one point Vlad felt like the future of this club.

This year he's had decent enough numbers,  hitting .281 with 7 homers and 30 RBIs, but he's definitely gotten hotter in the last few weeks. I think he knows teams are gonna be looking at him, and wants to come off as strong as possible, even if it means parting with the organization his father entrusted to bring him up. It's uncertain who'll be making the deal, but Houston, San Francisco, Cincinnati, maybe even Seattle or New York, could go for an upgrade at 1st. Or maybe none of it happens and he rounds out the year in Toronto. Or maybe somehow the Jays figure it out and stuff themselves back into the race.

I don't know if the Jays are gonna sell this year, but if it does happen, it'll bring out some sadness in me that I never thought I'd feel for a Jays team after 2016. 

Coming Tomorrow- It is June, and there is a team where literally nobody is worth making a custom of. So I had to go with a reliever. 

Joc Steady

 The deal with Joc Pederson has traditionally been that you're gonna get power numbers. His defense was never especially the draw, even in LA. You get him, you're gonna get 25-to-35 home runs, some solid RBI numbers, some low averages and his younger brother pumping everybody up. That's already a pretty good deal. Pederson has 2 World Series wins, has competed in two Home Run Derbys, is responsible for 12 postseason home runs, and is one of the most fun guys to have around. In the heat of an All-Star season in San Francisco, when Tommy Pham went at him, almost nobody thought it was because of anything Pederson did. It's not like Josh Donaldson egging on Tim Anderson or anything. No, Pedey was in the right and Pham was bringing stuff about their fantasy league into the ring, and Pham got rightfully attacked for it.

What I'm saying is I thought I knew the limitations of what Joc Pederson could bring to a ballclub. And so here he is, in Phoenix, with his best contact hitting year of his career. Hitting .286 with 44 hits, 23 RBIs and an .878 OPS. And his slugging numbers are a .494, but he's gone higher. He only has 7 home runs. It's not really about power this season. Which is kinda wild, cause...this is Joc Pederson we're talking about here. Career .239 average Joc Pederson. 

And hey, the D-Backs will certainly take it at this point. They're hitting .249 as a team, which is 8th in baseball, thanks to contact hitters like Ketel Marte, Jake McCarthy, Geraldo Perdomo and somehow Randal Grichuk. Walker and Marte are hitting home runs, even if resident home run hitter Eugenio Suarez...uh...isn't. Really the only disappointments here have been Suarez and Corbin Carroll, everybody else has been either decent or extremely good. And it's wild to see Pederson an integral part of the team. Not that I didn't think he could, I saw what he could do with the Giants and Braves, but you forget how versatile he is, and how many different things he can excel at. And he's reminding us in AZ this year.

Yes, quite obviously the injuries to the pitching staff has held this team back. We've still yet to see Eduardo Rodriguez, we're without Merrill Kelly for a while, now we're without Zac Gallen, and a rotation of Montgomery-Pfaadt-Nelson-Henry-Cecconi just isn't the same. This is what the D-Backs were trying to get around all last postseason with the Kelly-Gallen-Pfaadt trio. Now that the big pieces of the rotation are hurt it's just 5 guys with 5 ERAs. Montgomery is proving why he made the right decision firing Scott Boras, because that holdout may have tanked his season. If they didn't have Paul Sewald on fire in the ninth, and a very strong bullpen, it'd be over for these guys.

It's a lot like the Astros in the earlier part of the season, and the Marlins and A's now honestly. If there's no 'safe zone' starter to guide you through after a ton of bad starts, then you're really putting a lot on your lineup to show up. And the D-Backs are lucky this lineup can. If there was substantial pitching here, and healthy, they wouldn't be paddling through 4th place.

Coming Tonight: A guy who fans once thought would be the franchise's savior...beginning to look at other clubs. 

Understaffing Before Closure

So, here's a brief bit of topical depression from your local Jersey resident: I found out earlier today that one of our local diners just closed suddenly, out of the blue. This is the third or fourth diner in the last year or so to close down, one's been made into a dispensary. And this one was still standing but now it's suddenly gone. And there was no run-up to it, or signs that it might be on the way out. Nah, beginning of the week the doors were shut, the website was offline and the business was kaput. Thankfully there's a good diner still local, probably one or two others a bit further off, but this specific diner just skidding to a halt like this feels like the ultimate insult. 

It's not that the customers stopped showing up, it's that nobody really wanted to put in the work to keep it open.

Oh yeah and there's an Oakland A at the top of the post, I wonder how that anecdote is related...

Look, the A's were a decent enough team when there were healthy and viable starting options. That at least kept them in the race, and they actually had 5 guys starting all their games for a while. Then Paul Blackburn, Alex Wood, Ross Stripling and Joe Boyle all got hurt, and the replacements were people like Aaron Brooks, Luis Medina and Hogan Harris, who were left out of the picture for a reason. And then suddenly it makes sense that the A's aren't winning games. Nobody's really around to make the first 5 innings suspenseful in any way.

It's really just J.P. Sears right now, as he's the only one who's stayed healthy this time. And it's a good time for ex-Yankee pitching prospects in other markets. Michael King had an amazing day for the Padres [against uh...oh dear this is awkward], and just last night Drew Thorpe had a stunning debut for the White Sox. Sears has been relatively sharp since coming over in the Frankie Montas deal, he's just never particularly had the best teams to defend. This year does seem to be an improvement, as he's 4-5 with a 4.02 ERA in 13 games. Sears isn't an overpowering pitcher, but he's gained some control, and is the best asset the A's have right now. Having Joey Estes and Mitch Spence helps somewhat, but there's still a 'let's throw 'em out there' quality to most of the starters not named Sears, and it's at least nice that he can be reliable for them in a time when everything is failing them.

And now it's getting even more ridiculous than just simply 'no starters showing up'. One of the team's best relievers, Michael Kelly, is facing a long-term league ban due to sports-betting. The plan to get Brandon Bielak over and fix his issues didn't work because the A's aren't the Dodgers. There's three crucial hitters with sub-.200 averages, including one that has been linked to trade rumors due to his, uh, hitting. And two guys who looked like the future of the team last year, Ryan Noda and Lawrence Butler, are back in the minors. Even if people like Tyler Soderstrom, Kyle McCann and Max Schuemann are actually coming into their own, too many parts that were working have been knocked back off for there to be any progress. 

The hope at this point is that things don't get any worse. But seeing as the Twins and Royals are up next...I'm not all that sure...

Coming Tomorrow- A career power hitter having one of his best pure contact seasons yet.

Reds Up

 

Somehow it all just fell into place. The Reds were struggling throughout May, and circling last for a lot of the month. Then all of the Cubs, Pirates and Cardinals started tanking, and the second June started, the Reds took off, and have only lost 2 games since the month began. And guess who's looking at 2nd place all of the sudden?

It's not like the Reds were waiting for everything to fall into place. There was a lot about this team that was working before- Elly stealing all those bases, the golden trio of Greene-Abbott-Lodolo, a surprising amount of strong innings from Frankie Montas, and another fun bench campaign from Stuart Fairchild. But it just seemed like they weren't matching up well against other teams, especially surging teams like the Dodgers, Padres and Orioles, and teams in the midst of hot streaks like the Cardinals and D-Backs. Sometimes the schedule can screw you like that. And as has been documented, even genuinely good teams have trouble with the Dodgers. 

And yet in several games against the Cubs, the Reds have prevailed, and grown even stronger, thanks to Tyler Stephenson finally putting together a complete campaign, Jonathan India finally getting hot, and Nick Lodolo staying firm after his IL stint and looking better than he's looked in years. Lodolo is still a really nice asset, and so far he's 6-2 with a 2.92 ERA in 9 starts. Not the overall crowdpleaser that Hunter Greene is but a really solid, honestly underrated starter. The only upside of Ashcraft getting hurt again is that the Reds are giving innings to people like Nick Martinez and Brent Suter, swing men who can work a ton of innings without really giving out, rather than the carousel of inexperienced chumps that they went through last year. Hell, one of last year's failed starters, Carson Spiers, has become an excellent long-man, and could be given another opportunity to start after he's comfortable enough being opened for.

It's also helped just having people like T.J. Friedl and Sam Moll back, those were two very important pieces from last year. And you're at least seeing positive offensive production from people like Jeimer Candelario, Jonathan India and Spencer Steer, who've had slower starts than preferred. The team does come down to Elly de la Cruz right now, and he's still phenomenal, already with 34 steals and 11 homers. I don't know if he'll go 40, but he could definitely chase some of the numbers Acuna hit last year.

It's a lot more satisfying when this Reds team is doing well, and they could use this month to hold second for a while. I think a lot of people would enjoy them as a major factor heading into the more pivotal months of the year.

Coming Tonight: The Yankees traded him for a guy who's ironically now on the Reds. He's got a tall order upon him, and he's doing better than one might expect. 

North Correa

 

Some people hit a wall at 30, some at 33, others at 27. Carlos Correa had an amazing year for the Twins back in 2022, and despite the murmurings that there was a medical issue, and the botched attempts by the Giants and Mets, the Twins re-signed him anyway. Since then he's done...alright.

I mean, the thing is, with a 1.5 WAR, Correa's the second-best performer on the Twins right now. But like...we know what he's capable of. We know what he did with the Astros. And this is not that, clearly. Defensively he's just not the same, and lacks a lot of the pop he had in Houston. Yes, age, but he's only 29. I know some 29-year-olds that are still very good defensively, or even some 32 year olds. Correa, maybe due to some of the medical stuff that deterred the Giants and Mets, just isn't the same shortstop anymore, and is only sort of an average one.

Thankfully he can still hit, though. Right now he's hitting .270 with 27 RBIs and 5 homers. This is...around his usual pace, and his career average is .272 so it's not terribly off base. But...there doesn't seem to be an exclamation point or anything with this stuff anymore. In like 2017 or whatever, when Correa got hot it felt noteworthy, he felt big. For a 6 year period he was one of the best players in the game. And now that he's been banged up a bit he's...not that. He's just an above-average bat, in a way that sort of fits with the Twins, but not even in the way that Kepler, Buxton, Jeffers and Carlos Santana are above-average bats at this point. There just doesn't seem like there's an x-factor with Correa this time. Even Jeremy Pena, who I've criticized as never really being challenged, is having a better year than Correa. And that's got to hurt.

To his credit, Correa's added a nice amount to this newly-surging Twins team, who've at least peaked above .500 again and are looking a lot better now that they don't have to play good teams anymore. Cause obviously the Yankees series didn't go well, but they have to play the Rockies and A's this week, so that'll go a lot better. Simeon Woods-Richardson and Jose Miranda are finally performing consistency in the majors, and Royce Lewis is FINALLY healthy again. Don't hold your breath, it may be like a John Means thing where it happens immediately after I post this. 

This is not a perfect team, much like this is not a perfect Carlos Correa performance, but they're getting by. There are worse teams in the majors, and there's teams with plenty less to work with. This team just needs to spark fire, like they did last year, if they want to be a match for Cleveland or Kansas City.

Coming Tomorrow- Another hurler the Reds' prospectors were thankfully right about.

Irvin Money

 

At the very least, 2024 might be the year that homegrown pitching finally begins to inherit the Nationals' rotation.

It was difficult for a while, though. There would be homegrown starters, guys like Tanner Roark and Erick Fedde, but all the stars of the show were people like Max Scherzer, Doug Foster, Gio Gonzalez, Anibal Sanchez and Patrick Corbin, all of whom came in trades or as free agents. It was really just Strasburg that was a homegrown ace. A couple years ago they tried Cade Cavalli, and he is steadily approaching 'whatever happened to him?' territory despite only pitching 1 MLB game. 

But in 2024, the Nats have been sending actual products of the farm system out there, and it's been working out. With no offense meant towards MacKenzie Gray and Trevor Williams [and lots of offense meant towards Patrick Corbin], the best work of the season so far have come from people like Jake Irvin and Mitchell Parker, both homegrown. Irvin's got a 3.12 ERA and a 1.027 WHIP, and he's only been heating up more and more as the season's gone on. Same with Parker, who's 4-3 with a 3.47 ERA in 10 starts. Parker has seemed to go right from the minors to a solid mid-rotation arm, and I think the Nats just need guys like that right now.

D.J. Herz is an interesting case, because he is a rookie getting starting opportunities but he's a product of the Chicago Cubs, who dealt him to Washington last year in a quiet deal for undisclosed compensation [probably a loose end in the Jeimer Candelario deal]. So Herz isn't a Nats product, and you can tell he isn't...because he's gotten walloped in his first two starts. Yes, he'll likely mellow out, but it's not the first impression the Nats were hoping for. In fairness they can probably just go 'look he's technically not our guy'. 

The homegrown mentality still hasn't completely taken over the lineup though, as it's really just Luis Garcia and Jacob Young and a bunch of other people's guys. Yes, some of them are very good, like C.J. Abrams and Jesse Winker, but you can tell there's still a lot of work to be done, and several of the people who were supposed to have strong years, like Keibert Ruiz, Lane Thomas and Eddie Rosario, really aren't impressing people so far.

So I'd call the onset of homegrown pitching an improvement, but it's gonna take more than that for this Nats team to really stand on their own in this division.

Coming Tonight: He was once one of the most important players in the game. Now he's...still good, but far less unique. 

Of Littell Faith

 

I feel like I'm dumping on the Rays a lot this year. Out of everybody I think I've done the most 'what are we even doing here' posts about the Rays. But if you look at this team, like 7 of the top 8 players on this team give off the vibe of 'reject from x farm system'. Isaac Paredes is the best player on this team, and this is a guy that wasn't good enough for the 2021 Tigers. Garrett Cleavinger was on the 2020 Dodgers and couldn't get it to work. Jason Adam was traded for Josh Willingham, and it still took him like 7 more years to properly impact a team. And this Rays team is the one they work in, all while the actual stars are, like nowhere to be found.

I think the way you sum the 2024 Rays up is that this is the kind of team that can make Zack Littell a star. Zack Littell was a decent relief guy with the Twins and Giants, and bopped around recently til becoming a swingman/opener with the Rays last year. Because the Rays are still without McClanahan, Rasmussen and Springs, and because there are so few sure bets in this rotation [even with Pepiot getting hurt], Littell got a starting role. He's done very well, with a 3.63 ERA and a team-leading 69 Ks in 13 starts. Even with Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale on this team, Littell might be the closest thing this rotation has to a rock. And while that is a good thing in the context of this season, in the context of the last 6 years of Rays history it's dire. We've gone from Blake Snell, Tyler Glasnow, Charlie Morton and Ryan Yarbrough to...well, here's Zack Littell, he's all we've got.

That is a good way to sum up this Rays team, honestly. It's all we've got. All those years of fielding great players in trades and refusing to pay them have led to Jose Siri, Richie Palacios, Ben Rortvedt and Amed Rosario inheriting this team. The fans are already pissed because the team DFA'd Harold Ramirez, who's become a fan favorite due to how fun he is on the field, and how much he loves his kid, in favor of Jonny DeLuca, who cannot hit. And the core that this team has relied upon, of people like Randy Arozarena, Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz, Josh Lowe and Taylor Walls, is....terrible. Arozarena's hitting .179. That whole 'smug crossed arms' thing only works if you're playing well. And honestly, the Rays might deal him. Either it's happening now or it's happening the moment he asks for a raise this offseason, might as well cut out the middleman. Diaz is at least batting .250 but compared to last year it's such a disappointment.

As I write this, the Rays are losing to the Orioles 4-2, despite 9 strikeouts from Ryan Pepiot and a 2-run home run from former Mariners catching prospect Alex Jackson. And guys...this shit isn't even interesting anymore. 'Oh, wow, a former prospect getting shelled and a guy you haven't thought of in 6 years being the only person to hit anything!'. Get a new owner, secure the St. Pete stadium, and stop this foolishness.

Coming Tomorrow- From the farm system that brought you Stephen Strasburg, Erick Fedde, Chad Cordero and Lucas Giolito comes....this guy, I guess.

Always Be Closing: The Inexplicable Titan

 

Here's something odd about the 2024 season so far. The story setup of 'there's this 30something pitcher named Suarez who'd left the MLB and gotten huge in international leagues, came back in the last couple years and is suddenly unhittable and being used in a major role by a competitive team' can be used to describe two different guys. 

There's Albert Suarez, who's been surprisingly lethal in a longman role with occasional starting perks in Baltimore. And then there's Robert Suarez, who was never drafted by an MLB team, became a relief giant for the Hanshin Tigers during the early 2020s, signed with the Padres, became one of their most dominant relievers, got signed to a multi-year extension at the height of Seidler-geddon, and now has 17 saves and a 0.69 ERA in 25 games this season. There's coming out of nowhere, and then there's whatever the hell this is. 

What's wild is that I didn't know Suarez was an unconventional rookie story. I just assumed, oh here's this new kid from the same system Pedro Avila, Adrian Morejon and Dinelson Lamet all wandered out of, good to see they've given him a chance. No, this is a pure export situation, where Suarez, like Ha-Seong Kim, got a small deal to see if he could work in the MLB, then got extended when it became clear that he could, and now the ninth is his. And considering that A.) last year was injury-shortened for Suarez and B.) the Padres no longer have Josh Hader, this ascent to the ninth just seemed like a perfect storm of great timing for the 33-year-old.

Suarez's 17 saves put him at 5th in the MLB, behind veteran closers like Emmanuel Clase, Kyle Finnegan and Clay Holmes, and relievers who are highest on the depth chart, like Ryan Helsley. Again, I submit that Helsley's come into so much luck being a reliever for the Cardinals that he wouldn't have found otherwise, and it's nice to see a self-made, underrated guy like Suarez come in on him. Suarez was lucky to inherit a team with a lot of save situations, as well as a team with a great bullpen heritage. Even taking Suarez out of the equation, the Padres have people like Jeremiah Estrada, who had this insane run to start the season, Yuki Matsui and Enyel de los Santos. Suarez is just the tip of this, and he's lucky enough to get the closing job. 

Now, another reason why he's been doing so well in the ninth might be that the Padres are currently at .500, and have teetered around there for a while. They have a lot that's going well, and a few too many players underperforming. Yet this is still a competitive team, one that could build given the right momentum. And having a guy like Suarez could definitely help this team sneak into the conversation as we head into the later months of the season.

Coming Tonight: The Rays had an abundance of relievers and too many starting vacancies. So this guy's been a top starter this year.