Always Be Closing: That Misleading Statistic..

 

I think that when the 'save' was invented, it was a much simpler MLB climate. Relievers could still go 3 innings because they were essentially trained on the same stuff as starters. Nobody was training to just go 3 batters a day yet, and thus careers were longer. Saves were just an arbitrary 'you made sure the game wasn't a loss' thing, and then around the advent of the closing pitcher it became 'okay, you came in and polished it off on purpose', and then the save had some weight. But eventually, as the closer becomes the valued spot it became in the 90s and 00s, there eventually grows a disconnect between saves and pitching quality. You get closers after a while who save a ton of games, your Alfonsecas and Wickmans and Loopers, and do it without being terribly hard to hit. There's a lot of 30, 35 save seasons that have a 4 ERA attached to it. And eventually you segue to this current period, where the closer is less dedicated, it's more RP1, and there are guys closing games that are doing it because they're the best available option. 

And so that's how we've gotten to this current point, where Riley O'Brien of the Cardinals has made an all-star team, and leads the NL in saves with 34, without being, in my opinion, terribly great at actually closing games.

O'Brien was a Rays draftee who bounced around a ton of places before the Cardinals took him on and made him a reclamation project. Last year he was excellent in 42 appearances, with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.5 WAR. In Ryan Helsley's absence, the Cards primed JoJo Romero and O'Brien for a closing spot, and both did relatively well given the opportunity. In camp, the two fought for the closing spot, O'Brien won, and he got to close games for them all year. However, his six losses and five blown saves speak to the reality that for every effective closing appearance there's a few more really shaky ones. Against the Phillies, going into the ninth with a 4-0 lead, O'Brien gave up all 6 runs and effectively sunk the game singlehandedly. Then three days later he got up against Baltimore and gave up the ninth inning run that lost that one. He's one of those guys that can get a save while still letting a run slip by, like he did against the Cubs in May, or making it a little scarier than it should be [he gives up a lot of walks]. And thus, even with those 34 saves, O'Brien may not be an optimal reliever. The statistic tells you he's good at finishing games with wins, it doesn't tell you how dominant he was in those appearances, and compared to a Cade Smith or a Josh Hader, he's not dominant at all. 

O'Brien's rise tells you a couple things. The Cardinals require a lot of save situations, because their starting pitching isn't lights-out and there aren't a ton of blowouts, but they're also around .500 because there's 6 or 7 games that would have been wins had it not been for O'Brien. The Cardinals are very okay this year, and so is Riley O'Brien. It's really as simple as that.

You're seeing some signs things may get better, like Quinn Matthews beginning to field some starts, and the advent of Cade Winquest to potentially help the bullpen. Blaze Jordan is beginning to hit, and for his troubles has immediately gotten hurt. Joshua Baez had that amazing 3-homer game, and...frustratingly hasn't done a heck of a lot since. Next season will definitely have J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker plugged in centrally and trying to move forward, and that's a very good thing. Until then there's just gonna be a lot of awkward false starts and almosts, and 2026 is most certainly one of those, as the NL Wild Card race has pretty much broken away from the Cards at this rate. 

I guess the lesson here is that, while saves aren't as important as they used to be, relief pitching can still be the difference-maker. 

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know, a guy who nearly won an MVP last year and frustratingly refused to follow it up?

Kyle Do Anything

 

Alright, we've learned a lot about the Cardinals this week, we've learned they're better than the Phillies but not as good as the Cubs. This is very useful and solves nothing.

The Cardinals are teetering on the brink of a playoff push, and haven't committed but also haven't NOT committed either. They only gave up a few pieces at the deadline, just Lars Nootbaar, Dustin May and Jojo Romero, nobody too crucial, nobody driving the bus. I'd say it was to make room for some guys stuck in the minors but Quinn Mathews and Ryan Fernandez are still held up anyhow. The Cubs loss today went so badly that the Cards are immediately bringing up Joshua Baez, and are hoping he leads the leads the team forward...much like Blaze Jordan and Brycen Mautz and Quinn Mathews....uh, haven't done. 

It's very confusing, because the Cardinals have a lot in place that brought them back to relevance. J.J. Wetherholt is probably winning Rookie of the Year this year, he's terrific defensively and has also managed to hit pretty well, with 16 homers and 45 RBIs. Masyn Winn is still a terrific MLB shortstop, even if offensively he's been down a bit. Alec Burleson's having a terrific year, leading the league in doubles with 30 and very near a 100 RBI season. But beyond that, well...I'm not sure. Ivan Herrera's a nice power bat but he's got limitations, for sure. Jordan Walker WAS having a breakout year but he stopped hitting homers right after winning the Derby, and his strikeouts have really been piling up. Kyle Schwarber was able to snap out of the post-derby hangover, but Walker hasn't yet. Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott are chilling back in Memphis wondering where it all went wrong. After years of Yadier Molina followed by Willson Contreras, they now have Pedro Pages as the everyday, and he's *fine*. 

The rotation, while still very anonymous, is better, because all the people nobody's heard of are at least displaying consistent stats. Kyle Leahy, since June 23rd, has only allowed 7 earned runs and has 4 wins. His season didn't START the greatest, but he's putting something together here as he becomes more and more accustomed to going long. He, Pallante and McGreevy make up an unassuming but strong core, with 3.5 ERAs all around and all starts made. Pallante's having the best technical season of the three, with 12 wins, but all three are great. Even Hunter Dobbins is beginning to come into his own again, he's got his ERA below 3.50 and has been dominant, if unsupported, in his last two starts. 

I personally do not think the Cardinals are a playoff team right now, I think they're more okay than anything. But a lot of their competitors for a wild card spot [Pirates, Marlins, Phils], when given the option to be okay or shit the bed...shit the bed. So all the Cardinals need to do is keep a steady pace and not fall apart, which they're good at. Or just hope nobody they're deadlocked with suddenly takes off.

Coming Tomorrow- A very good pitcher having a very nice year whose team continues to ignore every inclination to seize the moment. 

Worth the Gamble?

 

I would say more than most other seasons, this particular deadline week is inundated with teams who could either be a buyer or a seller. Because the middle of the pack this year seems to dominate the conversation, only a few teams really are in position to feasibly buy or sell, and even so, the top and bottom teams might not even be the most crucial players. I don't think the Dodgers are going to do much this deadline season. People keep linking them to Skubal, but that might just be in free agency. Similarly, I don't think the Rockies will be as picked at as people seem to think. I think the middle teams have the most to gain...but too many of them are still noncommittal on whether or not it's worth it to make a run this year.

Genuinely, like half the league is in this conundrum right now. The Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, Blue Jays, Nationals, Astros, Padres, D-Backs, Twins, Tigers and Cardinals are all unsure of the direction of the next two months. That's 11 teams. That's...a lot. All still undecided, all still up in the air. 

The Cardinals have been one of the most fascinating teams of this season, because on a number of levels they have cracked what's baffled them to this point. J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker have lived up to expectations and are leading this team into their next era. Alec Burleson's having an extremely effective year as an all-around hitter. The rotation, despite being mostly anonymous, is holding things together, with Michael McGreevy, Kyle Leahy and Andre Pallante all working on nice seasons. Defensively this team has its stuff together on a number of levels. However...there isn't terribly much to this team, still. Blaze Jordan was brought in to be the surefire hit at third that Nolan Gorman wasn't, and he's sort of doing a lot of the same things. There's still not much bench depth, there's barely contact infrastructure [the team's hitting .239, and the bullpen is mostly perfunctory really, barring a star turn from Riley O'Brien. This is a very okay team with a bunch of very good pieces.

Since the All-Star break, the Cardinals have come back to earth a great deal, with a 3-9 record, bringing them below .500 and to fourth place again. With the Cubs in town, who have a ton more momentum currently, the Cardinals aren't looking like they'd be wise in buying at this rate. But that's never stopped them before. On many occasions the Cardinals have taken on smaller pieces and have opted to be a spoiler in case a wild card spot surfaces, and that mentality got them Jordan Montgomery at the deadline a few years ago. They're also one of those teams that never thinks they're out of it until it's impossible to think otherwise. They may still buy, as a way of using the additions as a springboard to make an okay team great, which is...not how I think trade deadline acquisitions should work, they should supplant great teams, not make teams competitors singlehandedly. 

Who knows, the Cardinals could go for Skubal or Volpe or somebody huge. Or, they could decide to unload some small stuff and focus on 2027, as they should do. But we've established that the Cardinals aren't very good at doing what I want them to.

Coming Tomorrow- One of the few people still trying on a team that's basically given up.

Winn Now?

 

The maddening thing about the Cardinals being a good team is that it's still not a certainty that they're good for the long haul. They may just be good right now. I'm not getting a ton of roster depth that would indicate a deep run, especially pitching-wise. And yet...they're 7 games over .500, have some of the biggest performers of the division, and aren't looking like they'll be selling. Like...they've been linked to Skubal. That's how all-in they are, as of right now. The stats can tell you otherwise, cause the Cardinals only have one guy going to Philly next week [though it arguably should be two], but here they still are as a major player in the NL. It's the kind of run that doesn't make sense, but is fueled by pure momentum and ability.

Getting Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn, Jordan Walker, Ivan Herrera and Lars Nootbaar all on the same page, and healthy, the last few years has literally been like herding cats. 2024 was a terrific year for Winn, okay, so that's set, right? No, he struggles a bit in 2025. Jordan Walker has an amazing start to the season in 2024, he's ready, right? No, it takes him another two years to actually become a consistent power hitter in the majors. Ivan Herrera finally finds a niche as a DH, he's good, right? No, he immediately gets hurt. Nootbaar keeps conking out right when things get good as well, and while he's back now he's still trying to catch up. But as it stands, Winn, Walker, Herrera, Burleson and J.J. Wetherholt are all in really nice form. Winn has 37 RBIs so far, and is helping the team that way on account of some rising errors. Walker has 20 homers and leads the league in RBIs with 67. Burleson's got an .818 OPS with 14 homers and 63 RBIs, he's having his fullest season to date. Wetherholt's been so good that people think he should have made the all-star team, and I'm one of them.

What does worry me is that now you're seeing a shelf of non committing prospects beginning to form. Already Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott have been demoted back to Memphis. Blaze Jordan is up with the team, but he's a .246 hitter and not adding much, so Bryan Torres's taking most of the starts at third. Thomas Saggese is once again back in Memphis as well. They brought up Brycen Mautz a couple months ago, longtime pitching prospect, that didn't work either. These guys are beginning to pile up. Tink Hence, Cooper Hjerpe, Tekoah Roby, Hunter Dobbins, all prized organizational pieces just not progressing as planned. The only promotion so far that HAS worked out, aside from Wetherholt, has been the return of Ryan Fernandez, who's over his 2025 struggles and has been lights-out in relief. But we're gonna need a lot more than that if this team is supposed to be something.

This team just won games against the Cubs, but they've got a LOT of Brewers matches up next, followed by a Braves series. If they want it, they've gotta break even on this series, or else they'll be headed back towards .500 and could be in danger of falling out of the race. This week could decide the direction of the season for the Cardinals, and they need it to turn out positively. 

Coming Tomorrow- For years he struggled to find a place on this team as his colleagues outran him for starting spots. Now, suddenly, he's a power player at last.

Under-Armer

 

The good news is that Dustin May narrowly avoids an ironic punchline involving his name. His ERA in the month of May, over his whole career, is lower than any other months, at 3.65. Now, granted, he's only started 14 games in May in 7 years cause he's always hurt, but it's nice that it's not 'his name's May but he gets lit up every May'. Which is nice cause until last year, the joke was 'his name's May but he gets hurt midway through April'. Thankfully he's been healthier since 2025. I remember when we were calling him Gingergaard, cause he was a Noah Syndergaard-esque hard thrower with curly red hair, but now Syndergaard's moved onto a career in shit-stirring, so now May can actually stay healthy. 

This has the potential to be May's fullest, surest season since the pandemic-shortened 2020, and it's with a Cardinals team that is teetering on the brink of being good, which is weird to say about a team that's in 2nd place and 6 games over .500. For a while May, to me, was one of the signs that the team wasn't all the way there yet, as he was getting starts every 5 games and not really doing anything to warrant the job. Then he pitches a 1-hit complete game shutout against the Padres and it becomes clear he's gotten his stuff together. His last four or so starts have been pretty good, the Ks are flying as fast as they were in his peak in LA. Right now he's got a 3.75 ERA, 75 Ks and a 5-6 record, it reflects some early struggles but it's better than what caused LA to trade him in the first place last year. 

It's the Cardinals' rotation that still continues to confuse me, because they're rolling with McGreevy, May, Pallante, Liberatore and Leahy, and until recently they were all kinda getting by without doing anything over the top. Placefiller starters really. McGreevy has a 2.99 ERA but only 51 Ks and a 3-5 record, meaning he's very much at the mercy of the run support, and because Wetherholt, Herrera, Walker and Burleson have been pretty hot recently it hasn't been much of a problem. But...McGreevy being an ace while just being a serviceable leverage guy is...I dunno, man. The Guardians can pull it off cause they have Gavin Williams behind Messick. The Cards have Pallante and May positioned behind McGreevy where...and I'm sorry, but all three would be a 5th man on a better team. I'm sorry. I know they're making it work now and it's fine, but...I just don't see a guy who can serviceably nail a Game 1 of a playoff series. The 2019 team had Jack Flaherty at least. I don't know if McGreevy is there yet. Or if May is that guy all the way through a season.

I'm not disputing this team's ability to hit, though, as it's gotten them way over .500. Jordan Walker leads the league in RBIs with 57, and Alec Burleson's not far behind. Wetherholt's still looking like a major player in the ROY race. Nathan Church is real nifty as an outfield bat. Blaze Jordan seems to be the answer at third, and it takes the sting out of Nolan Gorman not being the answer there [get ready to learn St. Petersburg-ish, my dude]. And Nootbaar's healthy and heating up. 

There's a chance the Cardinals hear all this and make a major deal for a starter. I don't know if they can swing Skubal but they're exactly the kind of team that could surprise everybody for him. Or even a deal for Sandy Alcantara or something. Either somebody becomes the ace or they trade for one, and then they're there pretty much.

Coming Tonight: Arguably another team that doesn't really have an ace, and their closest equivalent. 

The Cardinals Continue to Baffle Me

 

I think there's probably a connection between whether or not I like a team and whether I can understand when they start doing well. Because I'm very logic-based, I try to imagine that most teams have ebbs and flows in the usual way, and that when a team takes a few years to regroup they'll surface when they really have the right team, or when a team starts losing key players they'll ultimately stop winning games. The Astros and the Cardinals routinely defy this logic, and I believe it's specifically to vex me.

The Cardinals have won only 5 games since May 17th, have to trot Dustin May out there every five days and start Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott daily, and yet they're still 2nd in the NL Central and generally well regarded. This week has been all about the Pirates scoring 10+ runs repeatedly, Chase Burns allowing no runs and PCA getting his groove back and yet here we still are with this Cardinals team ahead of them.

There are elements that work, of course. J.J. Wetherholt, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson, Ivan Herrera, Jordan Walker and Nathan Church are all having excellent seasons and earning their right to start everyday. Michael McGreevy's having a terrific full season ahead of the rotation, with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.101 WHIP. Riley O'Brien has 15 saves. Nelson Velasquez keeps making contact. Yes, of course all of that is good. I'm so relieved that Jordan Walker can actually perform at the MLB level after all this time. That is valid and good and happening. Beyond that this is a very dull, okay team. 

What is this rotation, even beyond McGreevy. Last year at least they had Sonny Gray and his strikeouts. Now what do they have? Dustin May can strike people out and go deep but he has ZERO wins above replacement and it's June. Matthew Liberatore still cannot get his ERA below 4. Andre Pallante and Kyle Leahy would both be great 5th options on a better team. The idea is for McGreevy to be the Jack Flaherty type young guy the team can rally around, but McGreevy's a very simple, low-strikeout control artist and to me that's not enough to lead with. The Guardians can do that with Messick because they have Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee already. There's just...no depth, man. Richard Fitts is done for the year, Roby and Hjerpe are hurt, Tink Hence is struggling so bad he's been moved to relief, and they tried Bryson Mautz and he wasn't ready. So we're stuck with these five. Yay. 

The Cardinals could, for all intents and purposes, compete with this team. But literally every other NL Central team has a better rotation than they do. At least the Cubs have Imanaga, I'd take him over McGreevy. I just don't get excited about these guys. If they improve over time, like the Brewers' rotation last year, then great. I just don't see it right now. 

The other teams are circling the Cardinals, and I'm expecting them to drop in the standings a bit. Remains to be seen whether they're still competitors, though part of me thinks they'll persist mainly to spite, and confuse, me.

Coming Tonight: The Tigers gave this guy away and have struggled to fill third base ever since. Astros are doing just fine there though.

Biscuits and Gravy

 

Since April 28th, when the Cardinals were just 14-13, they have gone 14-8. There was some talks of 'look at them streaking a bit', but...aside from a few losses, it doesn't tell me that much is different. They're 8 games over .500, but for a team that's that statistically thriving it's a very commonplace run of things. Not a lot of double digit wins, not a lot of double digit losses, not a lot of blowouts. Just sort of pedaling fast enough, staying in second and avoiding the Cubs as they plummet back downwards. I can't really tell you too much about this team's full season prospects right now, cause they're GOOD...but there's still limitations.

Like...we've gotta be honest with ourselves, this rotation is far too mediocre for the amount of wins this team has. Other than Michael McGreevy, none of them are really doing anything. Kyle Leahy's evened out with more innings even after a rough start, but May's struggling, Liberatore gets lit up more often than not, and Andre Pallante is, again, inoffensive if nothing else. Bullpen's not much better, it's really the Gordon Graceffo show with a lot of okay showings from the rest. Riley O'Brien has 13 saves and a 3.13 ERA, I guess that counts as good this season. I dunno, I haven't really heard much about good closing pitching this year apart from Mason Miller. I guess that's good? Maybe?

Either way none of it matters because this offense has been crazy. I can say with the pitching 'yeah, this isn't really second place material', but I can't say that about the lineup. It took YEARS, but Jordan Walker, Alec Burleson, J.J. Wetherholt, Ivan Herrera, Masyn Winn and Nathan Church represent a very strong young core. And YOUNG is the key word, as the whole lineup's under 28. Bryan Torres had a huge moment earlier today, and he's a 28 year old rookie. A rookie...who is older than the entire rest of the lineup. Imagine that. Unlike some other teams, 'young' doesn't mean 'inexperienced' here, and Winn, Burelson and Herrera feel like vets.

Burleson in particular is handling the power numbers handily, with 7 homers and 34 RBIs, plus 54 hits and 12 doubles, with a .290 average. He just feels surer of himself than he has in prior years, and his bat is that much more valuable on a team without a Goldschmidt or an Arenado. The same can honestly be said for Jordan Walker, who FINALLY works as a proven power hitter, with 13 homers and 35 RBIs. Imagine if he just keeps doing this consistently? After all that time struggling to? That'd be the twist ending of the century. My one worry is the lack of real depth with this lineup, as we're finding out now that Church is hurt and the nearest fill-in is Thomas Saggese and his .159 average. There's more immediate pitching depth than hitting depth, which is helpful considering the lack of pitching identity, but you're gonna need both to leg a full season out.

The Cardinals do have enough hitting to keep them in second, but the Cubs aren't gonna sink forever, which should indicate that they're not gonna CRUISE forever. Works both ways. 

Coming Tomorrow- Beyond Mike Trout, there is him, trying to build a bridge to the next chapter. We'll see if he lasts long enough to get that to happen. 

Get the Balance Right

 

Miraculously, well into their rebuilding period, the Cardinals have managed a 2nd place team and a working, relatively stable lineup schematic with proven young stars and a plan for upward momentum. Just...don't look at the pitching.

It's wild that so many pieces of this team have come together to work now, rather than at any point before. Having Jordan Walker, J.J. Wetherholt, Alec Burleson, Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera all hitting, and all hitting well, gives this team so much more to say than the last few years of transitional shrugging. Before, getting Burleson or Gorman or Carlson to do anything was asking for a lot. And now this lineup actually feels intimidating. Wetherholt's a genuinely great MLB infield option, with 7 homers and 18 RBIs in his rookie season. Burleson's putting together a strong campaign himself, hitting .269 with 28 RBIs already. Jordan Walker's already hit 10 homers and finally figured out how to fix his swing. The offensive production that was tricky before is coming so much more naturally now because this team is younger and has more urgency. Getting Arenado out of there was honestly the best plan.

But...that doesn't really carry over to the rotation, because getting rid of Sonny Gray, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas just makes this an anonymous, unreliable group of misfits. At least the Nationals have some young guys they can rely on. What do the Cards have?? Michael McGreevy's got a 2.52 ERA but he's mostly a ground ball pitcher. Same with Andre Pallante. Matthew Liberatore was supposed to be the ace but he's got a 4.50 ERA. The idea is to keep runs down but the Cards are honestly a team just barely outscoring their opponents because the starting squad just isn't much at all. Having a good bullpen helps a little, as O'Brien, Romero and Graceffo have been good, but so many of the guys that were so reliable last year [Kyle Leahy and Matt Svanson mostly] are seriously burned out. So it just seems imbalanced, impractical and unsustainable.

The real question is whether the hitting is good enough, and the depth is strong enough, to build off this. Cause if not, there's a possibility Burleson could be dealt midyear, pushing the rebuild back a tad. The fact that they're enough of a force to be on the brink of competition is scary, especially for NL Central competitors, but the next few weeks will probably show how real they are. Especially as the Brewers and Reds balance themselves out a bit more.

Still...if this team can compete without pitching, it'd be pretty insane. Like I can't even remember the last time the Cardinals didn't have any pitching. The 90s I guess..

Coming Tonight: Oh you know...that guy everyone really likes. Guess he's not past his prime after all.

Arch Arrival

 You know, 30 years ago, if a guy spent his first three seasons in the majors striking out 100 times without hitting anywhere above .200 and then suddenly becomes a consistent and powerful hero, it's because of one of two things. Either he's juicing...or he's just a late bloomer. And there weren't really a lot of late bloomers in the 90s because all the late bloomers just took steroids. 

But now that the development periods are different, you either get people who get called up in their early 20s and waste no time, people who don't get called up til their mid-to-late 20s and make it count, or people who get called up in their early 20s, struggle for a couple years and then after the MLB development time lock into place. And even if I prefer players get called up in their early 20s, we have seen that more frequently nowadays. Casey Mize was like that, Jo Adell was like that, Nico Hoerner was like that, and now Jordan Walker is like that. For three years he was absolutely unfit for the majors, and struggled to do anything at the plate. Now he is 25, and he's hit 7 home runs in 15 games. Keep in mind that his previous single season home run total is 16, from his rookie season in 2023.

Just when the novelty was running out, Jordan Walker's apparently arrived. And that really says a lot about the Cardinals. They know people were just giving up on them, and they're still finding ways to surprise people. Jordan Walker hitting home runs left and right is one way, Gorman and Burleson forming a pretty solid power core finally is another. The Cardinals don't have a ton to work with this year, but they're still not completely out of the conversation.

First of all, as was becoming evident last season, the bullpen. Riley O'Brien, JoJo Romero, George Soriano and Gordon Graceffo have had terrific springs so far, with O'Brien and Romero having yet to give up an earned run. O'Brien has also moved into a consistent 9th inning spot, and that's gone super well so far. Soriano is looking way better in St. Louis than he did in Miami. And even if it's very clear that something is very wrong with Matt Svanson, the core of this bullpen is definitely enough to really rest on. Getting McGreevy, Liberatore and Leahy to provide more consistent starting protection is the next step, but considering this is a year where, for the first time in ages, the Cardinals really don't have a proven ace, I think it's logical that this group takes some time to find itself. Who knows, it could be somebody like Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, Brycen Mautz or Cooper Hjerpe. Then again I'm mostly just waiting for Jurrangelo Cijntje to come up cause I wanna say his name. Ooh, those dutch pronunciations are fun!

I think with J.J. Wetherholt in this lineup, the Cardinals stand more of a chance in the long run. If Wetherholt and Winn are gonna be there for a while, that's a perfectly respectable foundation to work around, and the pieces are gonna fall into place. I think it does mean Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera might need to go at the deadline, because I don't know if they'll be able to break even by July. But it does show more optimism and forward momentum than the team had in the last few years. 

Who knows, with an organization as well-run as the Cardinals' maybe it'll take far less than 11 years to rebound from a stunning playoff loss to the Phillies.

Coming Tonight: One of the best power-hitting catchers in the AL. Very glad he's out of New York for a bit. 

The Last Few Burning Questions of Spring

 

The last few exhibition games are being played out tonight, to get the last few trials in before the real ones. The final cuts are currently being made, call-ups are being announced, and we're finally ready to get the season moving before there's no season to play. It's the most exciting moment of a season, because it's the last moment where there's still potential energy, before the sobering reality hits. And then the colors mute, the cold returns, and the season runs ahead. 

I've still got a couple more customs from Spring Training to dole out, and so from there, let's examine some of the last few lingering concerns and loose threads that might be at play during the 2026 season.

-Does Ranger Suarez mean the Red Sox' rotation is for real? On paper, the combination of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello and Connelly Early looks good, but with the exception of Early, all of these guys have shown downsides in recent history. Gray's coming off a down year, Suarez struggled to come back fully after the hand injury, Bello's ERA stayed plainly around 4.50 for a while, and Crochet was in injury hell for a while. How likely will it be that everything clicks at once? Luckily, Johan Oviedo, Payton Tolle and Kutter Crawford are around in case something goes wrong.

-Will Kevin McGonigle succeed where other Tigers infield prospects haven't? Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, two infield prospects that looked like hits, both failed to make the team out of camp. Colt Keith still has second for now, and Zach McKinstry is mostly an interloper. The future is paved for McGonigle and Clark, but will they take advantage of the moment or end up like Jung, Sweeney, Ryan Kreidler and more?

-Is the world ready for a decidedly non-competitive Cardinals team? Despite the complete lack of star power, the entirely decimated pitching staff, and the reliance on guys like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera to provide some form of normalcy, many pundits are still predicting the Cardinals will finish with more wins than the Pirates. Even with substantial evidence that Oli Marmol is well past his expiry date. It's not like the Patriots where it can just suddenly happen overnight. J.J. Wetherholt is likely very good at baseball, but is he gonna be enough to get anyone to care about this team? 

-Similarly, will THIS team be the Angels team that brings non-Ohtani relevance back to Anaheim? A lot of the pieces that worked separately in 2025 are still intact. Trout will be healthy and ready to go, Neto's onto another stage of his peak, Adell can finally power-hit in the majors, now Grayson Rodriguez has a place to pitch, Logan O'Hoppe looks to have a strong year, Soler's healthy. If all goes according to plan, the Angels could surprise some people. But in a division with the Mariners, A's and Astros, will they be able to get anything done?

-Has the injury bug already doomed the Braves before the year can even get going? Yesterday Spencer Strider was announced as an injured piece. The team already knew they'd be without Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Ha-Seong Kim and Joey Wentz for a while. This team also has Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Martin Perez on it. And Ronald Acuna is back, but who knows if he'll be at full capacity this year. Even if there's more reinforcements this year with that possibility in mind, will they have enough to keep them in the mix all year, or will they be running on fumes by August once again?

Will the White Sox finally lap the Twins in a battle for least inept team in the AL Central? Believe me, the White Sox have had a nice head start and had some truly terrible seasons, but the Pohlads completely have up and the Twins now consist of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and a bag of chips. Even with strong second-year infielder Luke Keaschall gearing up for a more dominant full season, the Twins don't have much at all this year. Pablo Lopez is hurt, none of the young core has developed, Royce Lewis still spends 2 months on the IL every year. Do the Twins have enough accumulated to outdo the White Sox's smarty-built younger squad?

-Are the Rockies looking at another year firmly on the bottom? I don't really see any evidence that suggests otherwise. Some of these rookies look decent, Kyle Karros and Chase Dollander and Zac Veen, plus the possibility of Charlie Condon and Roc Riggio sometime soon. But man, there really is nothing to this team, even still. And they have to play a ton of games against the Dodgers and Padres. Will there be anything at all that will be seen as an improvement by year's end?

-How off-kilter is the Nationals rotation going to be? In years' past it's been pretty straightforward, the young core of MacKenzie Gore, Mitch Parker, Jake Irvin and D.J. Herz, plus assistance from Trevor Williams. Now it's taken a turn. Josiah Gray was set to make his comeback after 2 years of injuries, but apparently that's not happening for a while. So what's left? Is Cade Cavalli ace material? Does Miles Mikolas have anything left? Did the other 29 teams pass on Zack Littell for any specific reason? Is Foster Griffin a viable MLB option? And is there any place for Cole Irvin, and eventually Herz and Parker, on this shifting team?

-What are the Rays getting at now? At last they get a working core, with Caminero, Aranda and Lowe all propelling them forward, and then Lowe, Mangum, Fairbanks, Josh Lowe and Baz all end up elsewhere. Is it possible that the Rays were closer to competing before than they are now? Even with Chandler Simpson, Carson Williams and Ben Williamson looking to make strides this year, the holes are apparent. If the Rays actually wanted to build a team without needing to save money, they definitely had the opportunity to. Will this season, and an impending lockout, give the Rays any incentive whatsoever to attempt to build a perennial competitor?

Just food for thought, I suppose. Tomorrow night we kick this whole thing off.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Cardinals

 

I personally think it's kinda funny that the Cardinals haven't made the playoffs since being embarrassed by a wild card Phillies team. Now they know what it feels like I guess.

As the Oli Marmol era traipses on in St. Louis, and as John Mozeliak continues to prove that he has no idea what the hell he's doing up there, the standard seems to slip more and more for Cardinals baseball every year. This year, they couldn't even get a great season, or a trade, for Nolan Arenado. Jordan Walker, Nolan Gorman and Thomas Saggese continued to disappoint when given golden opportunities. The starting pitching wilted, with even surefire successes like Erick Fedde and Ryan Helsley letting them down and needing to be dealt. And even surging seasons, like those Masyn Winn, Brendan Donovan and Ivan Herrera had, were cut short by injuries. This team finished in fourth place this year, behind three far superior competitors. And they only stayed ahead of the Pirates because, while Mozeliak can be misguided, he's not a complete trashfire of an executive like Bob Nutting is. 

Though, granted, he did give away Sonny Gray to Boston in exchange for a guy named Richard Fitts, so...perhaps it's closer than I'd like to admit. Boston may have been too cruel for Dick Fitts. We'll see if he fits in St. Louis, I suppose.

Lars Nootbaar, for the second year in a row really, settled into quiet, slightly-above-average mediocrity. In 135 games this year, Nootbaar hit .234 with 13 homers and 48 RBIs. The Cardinals' once-stellar battery of young outfielders is down to just him, Burleson and Victor Scott. And we're already hearing that Burleson might be on the block.

2026 Prediction: Traded midyear, and is a HUGE help for a competitor. 

Miles Mikolas may have had a shaky couple years after his MLB return, but since 2022 he's made 30+ starts a season and has been a reliable backbone for these Cardinals staffs. Now, granted, since 2023's season ended the quality hasn't exactly been sky high, but he's still capable of putting in the work. This year was an improvement over the putrid 2024, with a 4.84 ERA and 100 Ks in 31 starts. 

2026 Prediction: Ideally he retires but part of me thinks he's gonna try for one more go at this, and another part of me thinks the Cardinals will be the one that bites.

In the meantime, the Cards had a surge, finally, from former Rays top prospect Matthew Liberatore. They'd been waiting on prime stats from Liberatore for a while, and he gave them some in May, with a 2.97 ERA and 28 Ks in 6 starts. The rest of the year kind of diluted things, as he finished off with a 8-12 record and a 4.22 ERA. Still, it seemed like a decent enough start, despite a really rough July-August stretch.

2026 Prediction: An improvement, and a needed strong season considering the amount of question marks that are about to flood this rotation.

The Cardinals gave another rotation shot to Andre Pallante, and he started 31 games for them, pitching 162 innings. They weren't great innings though, as he went 6-15 with a 5.31 ERA and a -1.2 WAR. The fa fact that the Cardinals haven't cut Pallante yet means they're really worried about their rotation situation.

2026 Prediction:There's gotta be SOMEBODY that relegates this guy to the pen, right? Tink Hence? Tekoah Toby? Brycen Mautz? I'd rather try them out than keep Pallante up there if he's gonna be this crappy.

Pedro Pages was the designated backup catcher this year, and with Ivan Herrera hurt for a while, Pages got plenty of time to start. He hit .230 with 11 homers and 45 RBIs, but was much better behind the plate. The key is DHing Herrera and keeping Pages in at catcher, this way you get Herrera's power bat and Pages's occasional contact bat.

2026 Prediction: More of the same, with a slight offensive uptick.

At the very least, the St. Louis bullpen showed some serious staying power, though not the guys I thought. Going into this year I figured it'd be more favoring John King and Ryan Fernandez, but they both struggled this year. Kyle Leahy had room to thrust into high gear though, with a 3.07 ERA, a 1.5 WAR and 80 Ks. His 88 innings were the most of any reliever in St. Louis, and he was a worthy pace-setter this year.

2026 Prediction: Tries to close, isn't great at it, makes up for it in the eighth.

Similarly, Jojo Romero continued his excellent run with the Cardinals with another strong year, including a 2.07 ERA and a 1.7 WAR, taking 8 saves in place of Helsley after his trade. 

2026 Prediction: Carries most of the closing duties and gets 25 saves out of it.

The Cardinals have been very careful on using Michael McGreevy, as they only kept him up when they needed his talents in the majors. They honestly could have kept him up all year, he was clearly ready, but apparently they wanted to see if Andre Pallante was gonna turn around at all. McGreevy mostly impressed in 16 starts, despite a 4.47 ERA. He went 8-4 with 58 Ks. 

2026 Prediction: Breakout year, begins to inherit the rotation.

Coming Tomorrow- A handful of Cubs that finally went to October.

The Game of Musical Backstops Continues

 

Two years after Yadier Molina's retirement, and three years after acquiring Willson Contreras, one of the best catchers in the league, the Cardinals finally have their catching situation figured out. Probably.

Contreras is better off at 1st these days, and he's, at the very least, hitting a lot better and will be finishing this season with over 80 RBIs for the first time in his career. The majority of the season had Pedro Pages behind the plate, who is a very good defensive catcher despite hitting .226. But that's not your answer. Yadier Molina was able to give over mediocre offensive numbers for as long as he did because he was a rock behind the plate. And yes, eventually he did manage to have some great catching seasons. But the Cardinals, as they are now, cannot afford to have a passive catcher in their lineup, and need someone who can provide some offensive stability that the rest of the lineup has lacked all year.

Enter Ivan Herrera.

Herrera turned heads this year right off the bat when, in April, he had a 3-homer game, and got off to a .381 start after 7 games. Then he got hurt and the Cardinals had to go with Pages at the primary, who was...fine. He comes back in May, is hitting .320 in June, then gets hurt again. Since he's been back, from July on, Herrera has been one of the team's strongest hitters, and his power game has taken off. He's currently got an .832 OPS, 16 homers and 57 RBIs. I have him as my backup in fantasy, and he's been pretty handy for me honestly. If the Cardinals can start him everyday without him breaking down, that's at least a promising answer. 

Now...the thing is that Herrera, due to his defensive numbers, isn't a starting catcher this year. The injuries have kept him at DH, and because of the depleted catching numbers that might be the trick going forward, especially with Pedro Pages much better back there. As much as I'd thought that this season would mean that Herrera would finally be the guy at catcher, I don't even think the Cardinals think that right now. The idea is to keep both Pages and Herrera in the lineup, with Pages keeping balls from passing and Herrera hitting as well as he has. I'd hate for the plan to be to get Herrera reps at 1st as well, because the last thing you'd want is two different Molina replacements fighting for first base, but...this may be the reality.

Honestly, any answer is a good answer for the Cardinals right now, because they still really don't have a lot to show for themselves during this transitional period. The single biggest difference maker this team has had in 2025 has been that wonderful bullpen. Even with Helsley, Maton and Matz gone, you've seen star-making performances from Kyle Leahy, Matt Swanson, Jojo Romero and Riley O'Brien. It's certainly way more promising than the rotation, who are trying to position Michael McGreevy and Matthew Liberatore to run things and it's just not sticking. Pretty much every big piece except Contreras has spent time on the IL this year, and Winn's lost for the rest of the year. Despite all of this, Oli Marmol might keep his job, because if the last couple seasons haven't gotten him fired then who knows what Mozeliak's bar is.

I think the Cardinals could eventually be in position to compete again, but it's gonna take a few more years of disorder like this one to get there. Because this just isn't the answer.

Coming Tonight: I think his season may have cemented his Hall of Fame case, which is a weird thing to say about anyone from the 2025 Angels.

A Brand Diminished

 

Here's a fun stat: since the 21st century began, the St. Louis Cardinals have only finished a season under .500 twice: in 2007, the year after they won a World Series, and in 2023. Every other season they've finished over, with 16 playoff appearances, 11 division titles, four league championships and 2 World Series rings. The 2010s, the Cardinals were routinely excellent, with 5 seasons of over 90 wins. It felt like they were in the NLCS every year, and were able to bring in terrific players, build excellent prospects and put together great teams out of next to nothing. 

The 2020s so far have been a lot less noteworthy for the Cardinals. They've made the playoffs 3 times but have never made it out of the wild card round. They never truly recovered after firing Mike Shildt, as Oli Marmol's reign as manager has been particularly divisive. After the 2022 playoff collapse they've struggled to get consistent production out of Nolan Arenado, Miles Mikolas or Nolan Gorman. For the first time in a while, the Cardinals banked on a lot of prospect that weren't worth it, guys like Matthew Liberatore, Jordan Walker, Dylan Carlson, Juan Yepez and Andrew Knizner. And that turned into free agent signings that weren't worth it, like Steven Matz, Lance Lynn and, ultimately, Willson Contreras, who's beginning to really frustrate the fans. Apparently the Cardinals posted their lowest attendance in the history of Busch Stadium III the other day. It's a frustrating product now, and the Mozeliak factor has made it even more of a strain for Cardinals fans.

I never would have predicted this. Especially after the last two decades. How the Cardinals could go from thriving to completely at war with its own brand in just 5 years.

There are pieces of this team that have promise, but they're not going the direction they should be. Alec Burleson is a very good hitter, and is better at contact stuff than true power. Burleson's hitting .291 with 16 homers and 60 RBIs. He's just a big guy that loves to hit. He's not the most versatile guy there is, but he's a great lineup presence. I put Victor Scott Jr. in a similar category, where he's fast and great on defense but only hits .233. The ideal five-tool guy that the Cardinals were promised hasn't shown up. Nolan Gorman's a .225 hitter, Jordan Walker's even more limited, Lars Nootbaar strikes out too much and Andre Pallante isn't consistent. Brendan Donovan and Masyn Winn are the closest thing this team has to sure bets in their prime, and even they have their flaws. Donovan I see getting dealt in the offseason.

The best time for the Cardinals to actually benefit from their replenished farm system is actually coming up. Mikolas will be gone, Arenado might be dealt, and the emphasis will be on seeing about a lower-key, youth-led version of this team. There's a ton of prospects that could make the leap, and hopefully they won't be rushed. And if that works then the Cardinals could be back on track. If not...the 2020s are gonna be a decade that won't even be discussed as much as the 90s in Cardinals history..

Coming Tonight: An Angels pitcher whose steadiness and consistency was welcome in yet another noncompetitive year.

On Stopping Catching

 

Going into this season, the Cardinals were dealing with the large vacancy at 1st base left by Paul Goldschmidt, who'd been a gold-glover and MVP there since 2019. The decision to fill it by moving Willson Contreras out from behind the plate was left with some head-scratching. Yes, he's been getting injured back there more and more frequently, and this move would definitely contribute to a longer career, especially since he's still hitting as well as he did as a catcher. But also...not every catcher is destined to be a decent corner infielder. 

Obviously the best example is Carlos Santana, who kept getting reps at 1st and after about 8 years he developed into a trustworthy and gold-glove caliber defensive player. You can also talk about your numerous players who came into the league as catchers and ended up finding fame at other positions, like Craig Biggio and Bryce Harper. But for every one of those, there's a Johnny Bench in 1981, or a Victor Martinez late career year, or a Mike Stanley in the late 90s. And even Joe Mauer was...decent at best as a first baseman. Not as good as he was as a catcher, but holding his own.

So, by that metric, Willson Contreras's first full year at 1st base has been supremely okay. He's serviceable at 1st, but he leads the league in errors there. He's hitting .258 with 16 homers and 64 RBIs, but his WAR is looking like it'll be his lowest over a full season of work yet. By the metric of this specific Cardinals team, he's a standout and an integral player, but the team's WAR leader is Masyn Winn with a 2.6. This is not the most terrific Cardinals team, and this is not the best Contreras has been for the Cardinals. So...this may be the gig. He gets to play more often and hit more often, but he's not the player the Cardinals signed all that money to replace Yadier Molina.

And for the record, the Cardinals' current catching battery is Ivan Herrera, who's an excellent hitter but subpar behind the plate, Pedro Pages, who's decent behind the plate but can't hit, and Yohel Pozo, who's mediocre all over. So when I hear that Yadi himself is gonna be a guest coach this week, I assume it's to whip these amateurs into shape. They had one of the best catchers in history for nearly 20 years, and now it's a merry-go-round of 'well he's around'. At least Mariano Rivera gave the ball to a legacy of strong closers like David Robertson, Rafael Soriano, Andrew Miller and Aroldis Chapman before things went off the rails 10 years later. This is way too soon! 

Beyond this, the Cardinals are just sort of bobbing along this year. They're not really expected to favor heavily into the wild card race, they've really struggled since the ASG break, they lost their closer and a few other pitching guys, and they have to play a bunch of competitors in the next few weeks [and the Rockies]. I guess they could wander into some momentum but aside from Winn, Donovan and Contreras, I really don't know what this team's identity is.

Coming Tomorrow- A guy who's become one of the most overqualified utility infielders in baseball.

Winn or Lose

 

It is exceedingly difficult to write about the Cardinals. One week they'll be looking like a genuinely great baseball team, the next week they'll be completely ineffective in all facets of the game. 'Noncommittal' is the perfect way to describe these Cardinals, because we're like 3 weeks from the deadline and I have literally no idea what they're trying to do.

I think what keeps confusing me is that their starting nine is actually a pretty decent collection of people doing basically what's expected of them. Brendan Donovan, Masyn Wynn, Victor Scott and Alec Burleson are all having pivotal, strong peak seasons. Winn, for the second year in a row, has been an undeniable standout in multiple categories, being handy as a contact bat, a baserunner and a defensive shortstop. Winn and Donovan together in that infield is a trusted, proven combo that could lead this team for a while. Donovan's flirting with .300, leads the team in hits and got a well-deserved ASG nod. Heck, Lars Nootbaar leads the team in homers, and regardless of the fact that his lead is with 12 rather than, like, 33, it's still a very good thing.

The other thing about this team is that as much as it feels easy to dunk on the contracted players like Nolan Arenado and Willson Contreras, they're both actually doing pretty damn well. Arenado has 10 homers and 41 RBIs, and even if it's not peak Arenado, it's still pretty helpful. You're still hearing that the Cardinals might, or might not, trade Arenado, which we've been hearing for a year, or honestly since he was still with the Rockies. Contreras has 11 homers and 51 RBIs, and actually isn't too bad at 1st. Not Harper good or anything, but he's been helpful there since Goldschmidt's departure. 

And yet even with all that's working for this Cardinals team, there's still a lot of mediocrity around as well. There's no surefire ace in this pitching staff right now. Sonny Gray has 113 Ks, but a 4.50 ERA. You'd think Liberatore would be the young guy to rally around, but his ERA is 3.70, which is good but not terrific. Ryan Helsley, still on a lot of people's trade radars, has a 3.19 ERA, despite his 18 saves. People have figured out how to hit this team. Either that or they're really not capable of surprising people anymore, at least as far as the pitching is concerned.

I dunno, the Cards have been 2-5 since July started but they have this habit of springing back up the second you count them out. So I'm not gonna make any assumptions of their next move. I'm just gonna let them make the decisions themselves and we'll see how well it goes for them.

Coming Tomorrow- In a season where the rest of his lineup has sprung to life, he figured he'd get in on the fun as well. 

The Limits of Complacency

 

Let's be honest with ourselves. The Cardinals have a very okay team that's had some very good games. The star performer is Brendan Donovan, and again the Cardinals have to be careful about building the team around a utility guy. Nolan Arenado has calmed down, Fedde and Gray are human, and there just aren't standouts. The Cardinals have gone deep without standouts before, but in those cases there's been a sense that they're building something. In 2019, even if I didn't like the infrastructure of it, that was a youth movement backing up a core of guys like Goldschmidt, Ozuna and Carpenter. Here, everything's all over the place.

So seeing the Cardinals plummet through June, toiling around fourth, even after proving they can win games for a good month...isn't surprising for me. The Cardinals have trouble confusing a winning streak with truly clicking, and right now has cemented that they just haven't clicked. This current shellacking of the White Sox is an attempt to distract you all from that. It's only the White Sox.

Honestly, given everything that was put upon Sonny Gray when joining this team, he hasn't done too badly for himself. Last year he gave up a ton of homers but he still struck a lot of people out. His 203 K season was his second of 200 or more, and his first since 2019. And right now he's 7-2, with a 3.84 ERA and 85 Ks, which is a pretty decent line honestly. But he's not keeping runs down like he did in Minnesota. Maybe it's because he's 35, which...it's wild that we've reached veteran hurler era Sonny Gray after how he broke in as a rookie postseason hero. But the sheer dominance that got the Cardinals to pay for Gray has dissipated a bit. Now he's just a regular ol hurler with some K perks. It's still working fine for them, he's been pretty trustworthy, but the Cardinals' rotation doesn't have that strong ace, and hasn't since Jack Flaherty left.

There are good pitchers aligned in a group, but it's not really a cohesive rotation. I guess Matthew Liberatore is the closest thing to an actual young talent, but his ERA's over 4. Fedde, Liberatore, Pallante and Mikolas are all fine, but there's no one who can be consistently relied upon to close down an offense, just like there's no real consistent power hitter on this team. Nobody has over 10 home runs: Willson Contreras is the closest with 9. There's no real bench depth, an okay bullpen...this team just feels unfinished. And the first half of May has poked holes in the armor.

There's a chance the Cardinals bounce back, and the way this organization works it's always possible, but I think they're better off unloading some of the bigger pieces, doing away with Arenado, and just trying to get everybody on the same page at some point. Cause whatever this is won't get them a playoff spot. I don't even know what I'm looking at here.

Coming Tomorrow- Not even that disastrous 2022 season could derail his career, and that must mean he's in it for the long haul. 

The May-Clicks

 

The St. Louis Cardinals are 17-7 in May so far. Granted, this does not make them a first place team, due to the existence of the Chicago Cubs, nor does it make them a true successor for the division, due to the Reds only being a couple games behind, but in the span of a month, the Cardinals have gone from disappointing to impressive, and it may set the tone for the rest of the season.

The most notable part of this is the fact that they've ascended this much even with the continuing insistence on older arms in the rotation. But...this year they're kinda working. Miles Mikolas was DOA last year, and now he's a ton better, with a 4-2 record and a 3.50 ERA. The other Cardinals starter who fixed his issues overseas, Erick Fedde, has been even more dominant, with a complete game shutout under his belt in addition to his 3.90 ERA. These two and Sonny Gray at the very least going deep into games and getting the job done is a plus, as a lot of teams have gotten less mileage from starters over 30. And while this is a lesser version of Gray the Cards have signed up for, he's still got 5 wins and 66 Ks, so that definitely beats his Yankee numbers. Matthew Liberatore, however, has finally proven the scouts right and is a fully trustworthy MLB starter at last, with a 2.73 ERA in 10 starts. As good as the veterans have been, they need a guy like Liberatore to build the next stage around, and I can see Michael McGreevy and Tink Hence lining up behind him as soon as next year. 

The difference maker has been the amount of hitters that finally ripened for the Cardinals. Masyn Winn is now hitting .262 after a delayed start. Victor Scott has 16 stolen bases and is a great outfielder. Lars Nootbaar's having an excellent power season. Ivan Herrera, despite the injury, is succeeding as a hard-hitting catcher. Brendan Donovan is a true everyman contact guy. And Nolan Arenado, while not quite peak Arenado, is still hitting for power and has a 1.0 WAR. This team still gets listed as a potential seller a lot, with Fedde, Arenado and Helsley among the list of potential trade targets, but they're all aiding this team now, and helping them stay in the division race. 

And yes, eventually this team needs to have an identity conversation, and has to figure out if the answer is building the team around Donovan and Winn or assuming there's a true marquee guy in waiting [then again they thought Nolan Gorman was this]. But even 'crisis mode' for the Cardinals is working right now, as bizarre as it seems. We'll see if it lasts another couple months though.

Coming Tomorrow- He joined the major league club as they were about to defend their World Series title. Now, only a year later, he's one of the few people keeping them from falling into last. 

To the Victor..

 

I will give the Cardinals credit for this: instead of completely buying into the controversy and giving us a season where they're at odds with Arenado and nothing's working, the Cardinals are a team of younger, scrappier contact players that also has Nolan Arenado contributing. This is a team that can work with or without Arenado, and as the trade rumors continue, it's no longer a truly horrifying thought. Because god forbid if Arenado goes, they can just plug Thomas Saggese or Nolan Gorman into third and keep on going. Everyone will be on the same page, there won't be a gaping hole. They'll just keep on rolling. 

The biggest stars of the season so far, besides Arenado, have been the guys you weren't thinking about. I mean, maybe you were thinking about Brendan Donovan, but he's not your textbook MLB star, at least not yet. People like Matthew Liberatore, Ivan Herrera, Kyle Leahy and Lars Nootbaar have been the most important factors into this season. Victor Scott, after some really unpleasant MLB tries, finally feels at home in the majors, leads the team in steals with 11 and is hitting .292. I think they were banking on Jordan Walker getting to that point but that really hasn't happened yet, so Scott's a very nice alternative. All of Scott, Masyn Winn and Thomas Saggese putting it together at once does make me very intrigued for the future of the team. It's no longer a messy assembly line of outfield prospects that have to be culled every year, it's finally blooming in a way that makes the most sense. 

Granted, it does make the other contracts stand out more. Willson Contreras is hitting .248 with 22 RBIs and 5 homers. It's not terrible, but we've seen him hit way better, and his 1st base skills aren't quite Goldschmidt-levels. Sonny Gray is 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA, and, again, we've seen better from this guy, even if he does have 47 strikeouts thus far. But you get the sense that most of the contracted guys, like Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, even Ryan Helsley, will be gone next year anyhow and the team will progress naturally to replace them. Not that many of these guys are playing badly [Fedde just had a beautiful start against the Nats], I just know the Cardinals have guys that fit better with the current MO, and they'll lead to a more uniform, unified group. It may be another year away, but it's definitely in sight.

The one issue is that without Arenado, I'm not sure who's going to be responsible for most of the home runs. This is a very contact-heavy team, and hopefully someone, like Burleson or Gorman, will go on a tear naturally, but right now you're not really seeing much. It's not too much of an issue, but it could be if the nearest competition [the Cubs and Reds] is great with the long ball. 

The Cardinals have, for the moment, made it through the mid-division scrum and are in a decent position for now. It's uncertain whether or not the Reds or Brewers will find the leverage to flip things, but as of now the Cardinals are doing a lot right, and they're seeing what's possible if they tune out the noise and just do what they're supposed to.

Coming Tonight: I sometimes worry that when a flukey starter gets a multi-year deal, it won't come to fruition for whoever signs him, but the Angels have been pretty lucky with this one.

Valuing the Inverse

 

So here's what has been made clear about the Cardinals so far this year: what has helped this team more than anything else has been when the pressure is off, and when the spotlight is not there. The people that are succeeding on this team are the ones who were either counted out or just didn't do well with all the attention on them. 

Here's the best way to explain this. To move on from Yadier Molina, the Cardinals signed Willson Contreras to a mega-deal. Here's your catcher for the next several years, dude can hit and he's well loved, done deal. Last year Contreras gets injured behind the plate, he's moved to 1st for 2025 and has been...terrible. So not only have you given a roster spot to a subpar hitting choice, but now the catching spot is open. However, the majority of the Cardinals' 2025 catching choices have been successful so far. Ivan Herrera got off to a crazy start at the plate, then got injured. Since then, the position's been held by Pedro Pages, who's been excellent, with 14 hits and 10 RBIs in 17 games. And backing him up has been Yohel Pozo, who's hitting .316 already with 6 hits and 2 RBIs. Everyone was expecting Contreras to be THE guy, and the expectations needed to be lowered, so that now that the Cardinals have found the answer by stuffing three young catchers in a trench coat and winning with that, it's a good thing.

This also works for Nolan Arenado. Going into this season, the Cardinals weren't pleased with his 2024 work and were trying to trade him during the offseason. Then the season starts and, randomly, the old Nolan Arenado is back and he's hitting .282 with 22 hits and 10 RBIs. Once the expectations were lower and it wasn't about people waiting around for him to do well, he was great. Victor Scott's in that category as well, he came into 2025 as an alternate outfielder and is not only hitting well but stealing bases, with 8 so far. Even Matthew Liberatore has started being pretty sturdy as a starting man the exact second Cardinals fans stopped waiting for him to happen. 

The one Cardinal who's doing exactly as well as everyone thought is Brendan Donovan, who seems as good as everyone had thought. Donovan, right now, is hitting .356, with 32 hits, and 13 RBIs. Donovan is one of those guys who can do just about anything, as he's great defensively, he's an amazing contact hitter, and he's still very fast. It's weird that, as this team has elapsed, someone like Brendan Donovan has become a sort of central figure for this team. You'd think it would be Arenado but he's sort of taking a lower rung approach. You'd think Burleson but he's just not getting it done this year. And until Winn comes back it'll be someone like Donovan, who...can get it done, and can be that guy. The Cardinals weren't sure whether or not Tommy Edman was that guy, and so they traded him to LA. I think they want to try a different approach with Donovan. 

The Cardinals aren't doing terrific at the moment, but I still think they'll be better than they were last year, as they have the starting pitching, the versatility and the youth options necessary to win games. It's just a matter if, at last, the competition can withstand them.

Coming Tomorrow- Mike Trout isn't hitting for average right now, so here's an Angels hitter who is.

Pinpointing the Mirage

 

After three games against the Twins, the St. Louis Cardinals were undefeated. After two games against the Angels they're closer to .500. I'm trying to figure out how this makes sense.

So. Alright, we've established the Twins aren't very good this year. They're not hitting, they're not doing anything. They just won a game last night by attacking the White Sox's bullpen but Carlos Correa hasn't gotten a hit yet. So the Cardinals, in that three game sweep, matched up well against them. Both catchers had great series's, Gray and Fedde had great starts, Arenado's going off on a tear purely out of revenge. So from that, you can make the argument, oh, okay, the Cardinals are back. They'll be a factor this year.

...and so the 'dropping two to the Angels' thing is where I'm having trouble following.

The Angels, regardless of what their current record might tell you, aren't very good this year either. The offensive production they're getting this year is in spite of droughts from Mike Trout and Jorge Soler. All of their starters have given up some runs [save for the impenetrable Jose Soriano]. Their bullpen, however, might be the real deal. Jansen's been excellent in the ninth, Detmers and Anderson have no trouble in relief jobs, and there's guys like Brock Burke, Ben Joyce and Ryan 'never played a day in the minors' Johnson, who's snagged a save and a win already despite some run leakage. 

But all their wins have been close, and led by clutch hitting and contact work. Kyren Paris is the team's best hitter. The wins, as close as they are, are deserved, because the right people are coming through at the right time.

So...where does that leave the Cardinals? They're better than a bad team, but worse than an okay team with good parts? Are they...still in the bottom half of the standings?

If anything, the Cardinals should be proud that the things they were struggling to activate last year are working now. Jordan Walker, Victor Scott and Lars Nootbaar are all hitting. For Walker it's a welcome development after years of just not hitting at MLB levels. He's hitting .429 with 6 hits, 2 RBIs and a homer. Scott, meanwhile, is hitting .350 with 5 RBIs and 4 stolen bases. And even if Winn and Contreras haven't done anything yet, there's enough in this lineup that has me convinced they're gonna be better this year. I still think Matthew Liberatore getting a rotation spot over Steven Matz isn't a great idea, but perhaps this is finally the year Liberatore clicks as well. 

Like a lot of records in the first week, the Cardinals' decent record will be tested by their next series against a proven, good team. And ultimately that might be coming very soon, with the Sox coming to town. It'll be interesting to see how they do there, and if the trends continue.

Coming Tonight: The first complete game shutout of the season was thanks to this guy.