Mack Tonight

 

There is still this decent enough chance that the Marlins sneak into the playoffs this year. A lot of their contemporaries, such as the Pirates and Cardinals, have sunken pretty deeply below them, and they're currently 3.5 games back from the Padres-D-Backs scrum, which...all things considered, is not the worst deficit, especially for a team gaining ground. The D-Backs and Padres, as we know, are inconsistent, can drop the ball for a bit, and can allow for enough room for the Marlins to sneak in. This just takes the Marlins, equally inconsistent, to have a swell that outdoes them. And I guess we're about to see if that can happen.

I think a good way to sum up this Marlins team, just from where the production comes from, is even. This is a pretty concise group of people, with no huge superstars, no egos on the way to a bigger market, and no disconnect between factions. Otto Lopez is having an MVP caliber season as a contact superstar, but I think he knows he's not Babe Ruth. He's a very good player having a great year, and helping this team compete, but he's not a 'carry the team on his back' guy, like Griffin Conine can be in extras. I don't see Joe Mack as that type either, but he has been extremely good on a come-up, with 12 homers and 39 RBIs in 85 games. Mack came in as an alternative to Agustin Ramirez has backup catcher, then when Liam Hicks got traded he got the job fully, and has honestly earned it. He's very good behind the plate, hits for power and is young enough to grow into a cool piece for these teams. Considering that the Marlins' old catching battery is now the Rays' current catching battery, it's nice to see a young catcher who's probably sticking around. 

I did not expect Heriberto Hernandez to lead this team in homers this year, nor did I expect Esteury Ruiz to lead this team in steals. But here we are, and it's honestly really cool. Very speedy team honestly, four guys with 20 or more steals. And then you've got Stowers, Caissie, Conine and Hernandez covering the power faction of the team, though 6 different guys have over 50 RBIs, including Javier Sanoja. I just really enjoy how this team has come together as a hitting unit, and it makes me kind of optimistic, even if nothing happens this year.

I think the pitching without Max Meyer has been somewhat worrying, but the old Sandy Alcantara is back, going deep into games, making all his starts and doing exactly what he's supposed to. Alcantara's 13-8 with a 3.50 ERA, and he's looked really good recently. Eury Perez doesn't look bad either, with 142 Ks and a 3.44 ERA in 24 starts. Janson Junk and Ryan Gusto have come around and are pretty steady starting options. They've been letting Tyler Phillips start more games, and he's not too bad, with only a handful of outings where he actually got chased. The bullpen's seen better days though [why did they trade Lake Bachar??] but there's a lot of good young guys getting better. 

I think logically this Marlins team is maybe a year away, but they could also get hot enough to chase the competition and sneak into the race. Stranger things have happened, and with this Marlins team having as many facets and strengths as they do, you can't exactly count them out. And so I won't.

Coming Tonight: Despite no longer being on the Yankees, this guy is still an excellent hitting infield option doing his best in a less-competitive market.

It's Not Nepotism if it Wins Games

 

The 'second generation player' thing has been a nice development in recent years, but the rarer version of this is seeing a second generation MLBer playing for the same team their father did. Mike Yastrzemski making the bigs was great, but if he was in Sox colors that would have melted brains. We don't always get huge ones, we got Moises Alou as a Giant, briefly, and we now have Ryan Weathers on the Yanks. Both Griffeys playing for the Mariners is really the biggest version of this.

Well...I think we can add the Conines to this category, because Griffin Conine is essentially doing the same thing his father Jeff did for the Marlins, which is clutch hitting and contact hitting the team into the larger conversation.

Griffin Conine, for a while, seemed like one of those 'aw, if only' sorts of stories, because every time he'd get going, he'd get hurt. Last year he was off to a huge start, got hurt and missed the majority of the season. This year it happened again in April. One of the great things about Jeff Conine was that he was always around, always available, and Griffin has been the opposite. But in the past month or so he's been healthy, and so he's gone from a bench bat to the starter in right basically, and he's given this team a heck of a boost. In this period, he's hitting .273 with 11 home runs and 24 RBIs, plus a .916 OPS. He's clobbering the ball at a very similar rate to his dad, and doing it for the team that his dad helped win big. So that's gotta be really cool. Remember, he was chilling in the Blue Jays system for a while until being traded for Jonathan Villar, so it wasn't even a serendipity thing. All of this has fallen into place, and it's happening in a way where Conine can really help this team.

The Marlins, as it stands right now, are right outside the center circle of the wild card conversation, but they're only 3.5 games back and they're above .500. The return of Sandy Alcantara's better numbers, FINALLY, has fueled the recent surge, in addition to the return of Pete Fairbanks' ninth inning dominance, the return of Esteury Ruiz's uncontrollable contact energy and steals, and the return of Owen Caissie's power ability after like 3 months of lying dormant. Otto Lopez continues to be one of the best pure contact hitters in the game, Xavier Edwards continues to be just as effective, and Heriberto Hernandez now leads the team in home runs with 17. Losing Liam Hicks did not wound this team enough because Joe Mack is a perfectly viable catching option and Agustin Ramirez can now hop in at DH. So much has been freed up somehow, and the Marlins seem to keep getting stronger even as improbable as a playoff berth might seem.

The Marlins have to play the Phillies this week, which seems difficult, but the Phillies are desperate and this is the exact kind of series they could mess up. The Marlins could shock the world by competing this year, and it's something that'd be really cool, if slightly impractical.

Coming Tomorrow- Like Conine, a guy that typically gets injured right when he starts hitting. This one's a little more well-known for his longball. 

Unstoppable Force, Movable Object

 

To finish off June, the San Diego Padres lost 8 consecutive games. And for a team with next to no pitching and an alarming lack of depth, that was considered par for the course I suppose. Around this time the Miami Marlins were taking off, with a 20-6 record in June. Two teams going two very separate directions. So how do you explain the results of this Padres-Marlins series, where the Padres took all three, meaning the Marlins have now lost 12 straight, despite winning six straight beforehand? What the hell went wrong? The Marlins haven't lost anybody. The Padres haven't gained anybody. Now the Padres might be more of a wild card threat than the Marlins, despite them both having the same record.

Manny Machado is the guy who most represents the strangeness of this Padres season. They're not good, but they were given the belief to be at least decent. Hasn't gone 100% according to plan. Much like Manny Machado's season. This has been the first real down season the man has had since his early days in Baltimore, like his 2014 season where he, at 21, only hit .278 with 12 homers and 32 RBIs in a shortened season. Or his 2017, where, in between star-making campaigns, he hit .259 with 33 homers and 95 RBIs, most accomplished in a second half struggling to make up for a down first. Machado, in the midst of a Hall of Fame career that will no doubt cross the 400 home run mark this year and possibly the 500 mark eventually, is hitting .210 with 23 homers and 36 RBIs, with a 0.8 WAR owing to a high strikeout percentage, poor defense and a lack of real pull in the direction of the team. But he was still able to hit a crucial home run off of Lake Bachar last night, in addition to Jackson Merrill, who's also suddenly hitting despite a subpar overall campaign.

The Padres will likely sell at the deadline...or will they? We thought the Marlins would be buying, but now that they're back under .500, who knows? The Padres have Michael King, Ty France and Mason Miller to deal, and probably still will even if they're better than they were. But now there's been this swell, they're chasing the Diamondbacks who are ducking again, and now they're playing two much worse NL West teams, and...they could buy after all? Is there a way they could even out while still dealing Miller and France? Who knows. The Tigers still chased glory a couple years ago after dealing Jack Flaherty. 

The Marlins...I just don't understand it. Nothing's changed. They still have the same offensive onslaught since before the losing streak began. Still Stowers, Hicks, Hernandez...they've just all gone cold. Stowers is still hitting, but only .234, despite the 13 homers and 45 RBIs. Hicks is cold after a terrific start, now down to .277. Marsee's stopped hitting, Joe Mack's cooled down, it's the whole team basically. It's not that the team's suddenly bad, it's that they all picked the same time to go cold. The Yankees do this all the time, they just did this a month ago. Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara are still viable answers in the rotation, with 3.5 to 4 ERAs and high strikeout totals. The bullpen's hit a bit of a snag, but since John King is back that could be coming to an end. Otto Lopez still leads the league in batting average with .328, and he might be the only guy in this lineup who hasn't really slowed down. But alas, even against the Padres, they just couldn't find the will.

They honestly should still buy. The core still is successful, this month has just sucked for them. I think one more rotation arm would do it, possibly another contact bat or an actual 1st baseman [France?], and getting Max Meyer back eventually would possibly be helpful as well. I also think that potentially Deyvison De Los Santos could be a very helpful midyear callup, but I've been saying that for like 3 years at this point so what do I know? 

This should be a turning point for both teams. The Marlins should respond to this Padres series with the intensity to ensure it'll never happen again. The Padres should respond to this Marlins series with the mentality that'll either confirm that they're a seller or add fuel to the fire that a wild card run is still in the cards. We'll see what actually comes from it though.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles just gave him a lot of money to stick around, so that...knocks out ONE potential deadline target I guess..

Rising in the East

 

So, once again. To anyone who thought the Nationals would be the surprise breakout team in the NL East, you may be entitled to financial compensation.

The Miami Marlins are becoming something of an under-the-radar monolith, especially in the month. They were 26-34 leaving May, and they are now 25-8. Meaning they've almost doubled their entire prior win total in the last month and a half, and have only lost 8 games, 2 of which coming at the hands of the Philadelphia Phillies...who they are currently tied with for second place, and three games behind the Braves. It's a wild development, but...it's one you wouldn't be called insane for seeing coming.

Let's remind ourselves, that the Washington Nationals, in spite of their uproarious offense, great base running and great new-school ideas...don't have much of a rotation. It's Foster Griffin and look out. Littell was on a decent pace but now he's getting lit up all the time. The Marlins had depth even before they became good. Max Meyer, Eury Perez and Sandy Alcantara were all there, dormant, even before they became the keys to this rotation's success. Sandy had a rough start, Perez had a rough start...look at 'em now. Perez now leads the team in WHIP with 1.105, and has 89 Ks and a 3.84 ERA. Meyer is still looking very sharp, with a 9-1 record, a 2.58 ERA and 116 Ks. And even if this isn't peak Cy Young era Sandy, the guy still looks good, leads the league in IP with 123 and has a 10-4 record with 92 Ks. The back half is a little shakier, it's Tyler Phillips and a pen game, but it's working. Way better than the Nats'.

And with the amount of offensive depth the Marlins came into this season with, a moment like this where almost every option is a good one is pretty satisfying. Kyle Stowers was hurt for a bit, then cold for a month. And NOW he's taking off again, with 12 homers and 41 RBIs, plus an .801 OPS, making up for lost time. Stowers is very much the same kind of power bat that blew up last year, and while his sustainability is still in question, he's still crucial to the team's current success. Owen Caissie just got injured, so Stowers, who'd been filling in at 1st, will get more OF time. But even still bench OF options Griffin Conine and Esteury Ruiz are still pretty good. Having to choose between Heriberto Hernandez and Griffin Conine is still a pretty nice choice. It also helps that Marsee seems to be heating up a little, and that Liam Hicks has no issue filling in at 1st while Joe Mack continues his excellent campaign behind the plate. Also very cool that Javier Sanoja seems to have won the race for third by default, and is getting time there everyday. 

The core of this team being Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards and Kyle Stowers is something that I never thought would work, but they're winning games and outhitting great teams [THE MARINERS]. I hope it keeps going, and I hope they can shock some people further down the stretch. 

Coming Tomorrow- A Tigers pitcher that has stayed healthy all season and probably won't be leaving anytime soon. What a concept, right?

A Breakout Within a Breakout

 

So. To give you an idea. Last week the story was the surprise blowup of the Washington Nationals, a full lineup effort based on outhitting you no matter who you are, and they were gaining serious traction in the NL East. Then the Phillies series happened. As good as that Nats team is, their bullpen could not withstand this Phils team, and they blew all three games in the ninth. Many times to Derek Hill. And so now...the Nats are in fourth.

...leaving the Marlins, ANOTHER surprise breakout NL East team, to take third. And...they might have something cooking here.

The Marlins are 16-5 in June, they have the best home record in baseball, and they have a lineup full of young fun contact hitters. Edwards and Lopez have ruled this season, along with Liam Hicks, but a lot of peskier seasons are coming out of the woodwork this month. Heriberto Hernandez is a simple contact bat with no real defensive help, but he's been really on target lately, hitting .274 this month with 6 homers and 11 RBIs. Joe Mack has emerged as a viable catching option in the wake of Hicks' injury and Agustin Ramirez's demotion, he's got a .723 OPS and 18 RBIs in 38 games. Unlike the last bevy of catching options in Miami, Mack looks like he could be a foundational catching piece in addition to a steady bat who can catch. After a few weak seasons in between, Esteury Ruiz has gone back into his old role with the A's, as a decent contact bat with tons of steals. He's got a .897 OPS in 74 at-bats, which I was not expecting.

The thing about this Marlins team is you'd expect cheesy power, and there is some of that...it's just not pretty. Kyle Stowers is not as good as he was last year, and he's only got 8 homers and 29 RBIs through 57 games. Owen Caissie has 9 homers and 43 RBIs, but it's not pretty, and he strikes out way too much for that low hit total. Marsee ain't doing much better. Connor Norby got sent down due to how cold he's been hitting, so now Kyle Stowers is picking up more at-bats at first, and that's...sort of working. Him and Sanoja I guess. This isn't really a home run team, which is wild considering what last year was foreshadowing, but the contact game is so good that it's keeping them in the race.

Also very happy with this bullpen. The Blue Jays like to throw around the 'team of uncommon men' thing but look at these weirdoes! Lake Bachar and his swamp aftertaste coming in and striking you out. John King having a bounce back season after flunking out of St. Louis last year. Michael Petersen, a 32-year-old up and comer from Essex with a 3.18 ERA. Anthony Bender is continuing his run as the Marlins' best relief asset this decade. Tyler Phillips is now opening games and it's still working out. Even Fairbanks is beginning to loosen up and actually nail saves. The rotation is imperfect but the bullpen is ensuring the team can win close games.

Does this Marlins team have legs? Maybe? Maybe they can spin this into a low-key playoff team. They're kinda close, and there's less general mess than usual. There's still a lot of competition in the NL Central, and they already have to contend with a strong Phils team. It can be done, but it's gonna take even more long-term work from these hitters, like Hernandez, having a great June.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up right when the team, which was a playoff competitor, was trending downward. Can he do anything to stop that??

Looks Max-ing

 

[This title is one of the serious downsides of there still being a relatively young person in the blogosphere. Also, no, I couldn't tell you what it means either.]

The Marlins are usually deeply weird, but this year is a new breed of abject strangeness. This Marlins team is one where Otto Lopez is highly likely to make an All-Star team and has a batting title, Liam Hicks is vying for an RBI title, all but three active batters have a WAR of less than 0.5, two of the best power hitters with MLB experience are sitting in Jacksonville waiting for Joe Mack or Connor Norby to have a stroke, three necessary starters are hurt [one of which immediately after making his MLB debut] and another is pitching so poorly that HE'S sitting in Jacksonville, and the bullpen may be one of the Top 5 in all of baseball. Essentially hollow at the plate, above average on the mound despite the swiss cheese.

Just once I want to write about a normal Marlins team that just wins a division and has stars and isn't a barrel of nonsense. Just one time.

In all of the pitching uncertainty, Max Meyer has emerged as a relatively strong ace. It's been a rocky road for Meyer, missing a few years with injuries, coming back last year and struggling some more before eventually finding his footing. This year he's been terrific, going 6-0 with a 2.81 ERA and 81 Ks in 13 starts. It's upsetting it took him until 27 to reach this point, but he's here now, and his work, plus occasional greatness from Sandy Alcantara [he does have a CGSHO under his belt this year], are aiding this team tremendously. Beyond that, they're stretching out Tyler Phillips as a starter again, and while it didn't go well in Philly it's worked fine so far. I'm not sure what the heck their plan is beyond that, but I would guess Bradley Blalock would get a go, and possibly Braxton Garrett again if he behaves this time. 

The lineup, beyond Lopez, Hicks, Edwards and Sanoja, really isn't doing much. Owen Caissie's a great outfield bat on paper but he strikes out too much and he has poor defense. Connor Norby's fine but counterproductive. Stowers and Marsee are both way down from last year. This team has Deyvison de los Santos, Agustin Ramirez and now Rece Hinds all stuck in the minors while people like Leo Jimenez, Joe Mack and Chris Morel eat precious roster space. I know that the runs can score with these types of guys, but it's not a working model, and you can't build that much from it. If guys like Marsee, Caissie and Norby did what they were supposed to, we'd be in better shape, but they're wasting this year.

The Marlins are now fighting to keep from being lapped by the Mets, who, while having a bigger payroll and more working factions, are still the Mets. So that'll be interesting for sure.

Coming Tonight: His infield defense may not be terrific, but his burst of offense has been keeping his team from being the total failure many people figured it would be.

If It Ain't One Thing...

 

The Marlins are having a hell of a time right now getting everything straight. So many pieces have been moved around only for something else to completely nullify the thought behind the move. There's so much to explain that it's hard to do so without coming off deranged.

So here's what I can gather immediately. 

The Marlins began the season with an outfield consisting of Owen Caissie, Jakob Marsee and Heriberto Hernandez. None of them are hitting. Caissie had a great first week, not much since then. They had Griffin Conine, who was hitting, but as it tends to happen, Griffin Conine got injured immediately. Heriberto's been moved to DH, Stowers is back...he's only hitting .200. The depth OF, Esteury Ruiz, despite having 7 steals, isn't hitting. 

Christopher Morel, who was supposed to be the starting 1st baseman this year, isn't hitting. He got the job because the Marlins didn't keep Eric Wagaman, who sort of was hitting. He was gonna take the majority of the reps and be backed up by Connor Norby, who lost the 3rd base job to Graham Pauley. Pauley isn't hitting, got demoted, and Morel, as established, isn't hitting. So Norby got the 1st base spot. He's...hitting well enough I guess. .726 OPS, 13 RBIs, he's fine. Javier Sanoja was promoted from utility guy to semi-regular 3rd baseman, he's hitting .250 without much pop at all. If it weren't for Edwards and Lopez, both hitting .300, they'd really be screwed.

The biggest twist has been Liam Hicks behind the plate. Last year he was brought in to replace an injured Nick Fortes as catcher, then Hicks got the majority of the reps when Fortes stopped hitting. Fortes gets traded, Hicks and Agustin Ramirez hold the catcher position, great success. This year...Agustin Ramirez has stopped hitting. In 2025, this was the only thing Agustin Ramirez could do properly. Now he's a .230 hitter with barely any power. Back to the minors with him. I'd suggest keeping Deyvvison de los Santos up long-term but apparently nobody wants to actually keep him in the majors. Hicks this season, though, has been wonderful, hitting .287 with 9 homers and a league leading 38 RBIs. I did not think, this time last year, that Liam Hicks could be an RBI leader, or even a borderline All-Star pick. But here we are. Unfortunately, to remind you, Hicks, Edwards and Lopez are the only people on this team who are actually hitting. 

I also think it's very funny that the Marlins cut Chris Paddack to make room for Robby Snelling, only for Robby Snelling to immediately get hurt in his first start. But that's more tangential than anything here.

Today, somehow, the Marlins upset the Rays in extras by scoring EIGHT RUNS in the 10th. They couldn't do that in regulation but the Rays' bullpen is so bad that they can do it in extras. The run scoring was thanks to people like Hicks, Lopez, Norby, Sanoja and Esteury Ruiz. It's as close as we're gonna get to a full team effort without Stowers as a locked-in central force. This team can still win games, and in the NL East that's a relief, but compared to the competition there's just not a ton that's working right now. There's the occasional bolt of lighting but through regulation the offense was limited to a Sanoja RBI and a Heriberto Hernandez homer. 

There's gotta be more than this. Cause as it it's just a lot of frantic chaos. Typically that leads to something. 

Coming Tomorrow- He's shifted into ace mode, his team's upsetting giants, and the guy playing me in fantasy this week started him. God help us all. 

Sandy & The Hourglass

 

The Marlins are in second place. Are they in second place because they are honestly kinda good, or are they in second place because their competition is the Nationals, who aren't great, and the Phils and Mets, who had awful losing streaks? It's too soon to say. But it has to help that Sandy Alcantara's finally pitching like his old self again.

The Sandy Alcantara era in Miami has been a strange one, because when they had absolutely nothing they still had him, and then once they were able to build a team and compete, Sandy, well...he got hurt, missed a season and spent 2025 not being too great. And now for 2026 they have a lot more cemented. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez make a great DP combo. Kyle Stowers just returned to aid Owen Caissie and Jakob Marsee in the outfield. Liam Hicks is having the contact season of his life. And the bullpen has finally locked in consistently. 

But now...this growing, improving Marlins team has a great Sandy Alcantara performance behind it. Through 5 starts, he's got a 2.80 ERA, 23 Ks, a 1.019 WHIP and a complete game shutout under his belt. This is the guy who won the Cy Young a few years ago. There was a worry that the big season cooked his arm, but that doesn't seem to be the case. He's still dominant, he's still trustworthy, and he can still lead this rotation forward. And just to be clear, he's not exactly doing all the work either. Max Meyer's off to a pretty nice start, and has 28 strikeouts already. Janson Junk and Eury Perez have had some pretty nice starts. I figure Braxton Garrett will be back eventually, there's still room for outside voices, but what they have at the moment is working despite the lack of real exclamation points.

I think what's most relieving about this Marlins team is that the parlance 'well, it won't be pretty' doesn't apply to this team as much as it did to past iterations. There is much better hitting on this team, and more of the contact variety. 5 years ago it was easy to get like 6 guys who hit homers and then only hit .220 and be alright with it, but now that Edwards, Stowers, Hicks, Sanoja and Lopez can just hit for other reasons than just hitting home runs, it gives more of an idea of what the team can accomplish. Last year the Blue Jays contact-hit their way to a World Series, and the Guardians' contact game gets them to the playoffs frequently. The Marlins have enough varied hitting energy to get them far. And if all else fails, they have Deyvison de los Santos, who could probably hit 30 home runs if they can keep him in the majors. 

I feel good about this Marlins team. Granted, if the bottom two disappointments can really turn things around, they'll need to shift into a different gear, so hopefully there's a higher ceiling than usual for the Marlins.

Coming Tomorrow- I still can't believe that this is like the one guy the Rays couldn't wait til he blossomed to trade. They just did it immediately. And now he's one of two ex-Rays leading the Twins rotation.

Do My Eyes Deceive Me?

 

Every year, in addition to the teams we figure are gonna do well, there's always one that has a strong start that nobody is expecting to. A couple years ago the Pirates were one of the best teams in April, and then a joke by June. Last May the Twins had a ridiculous winning streak and by July the Pohlads decided it wasn't sustainable. I like to think, at this point, that I know the difference between the start of something beautiful [the 2015 Mets in April] or a complete mirage [the 2013 Brewers]. 

But I'm looking at this Marlins team right now and I don't know what I believe. Yes, it is more likely than not that the Braves, Mets and Phillies will come storming back and control the division like everyone is expecting them to. But the Marlins...look good. I know they played the Rockies in the first series and have had to play the White Sox this week, but even if it is against bad teams, this is a more confident, well-assembled Marlins team. Clearly.

There's so many pieces of this team that, in 2025, were thought as perfunctory or auxiliary pieces, and those guys are now plugged into this team firmly. Javier Sanoja seems to have a permanent infield position and is hitting .583. Liam Hicks is no longer a fledgling backup catcher and now he currently leads the league in RBIs with 12. Janson Junk was a swing guy who took a few starts when the Marlins had no options, and now he's a trusty fifth man who does what he's supposed to. Additionally, there was a spot on this team to fit Owen Caissie [perpetually blocked behind PCA and co], and he's been tremendous in Miami, hitting .350 with 8 RBIs. I do think about what the outfield is gonna look like when Kyle Stowers gets back, and how he, Caissie and Jakob Marsee could form a pretty powerful unit out there.

The new factors of this team are also reestablishing just how well-ironed some of the preexisting aspects are. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez, their first couple years in Miami, felt like potential place-filler options until better guys came along, and as something resembling elder statesmen on this team, they still have a big role to play. Edwards's contact game has been sharp, as he's currently hitting .409 with a steal. Lopez is hitting .318 and has a homer. Sandy Alcantara is back to his old self, 2-0 with no earned runs and 12 Ks through his first 2 starts. There's a chance some may be dealt later on this year, but knowing how impressive the youth movement is on this team, it could just be for all the right reasons. Besides, considering how ready Deyvison de los Santos looks for the majors, I kinda wish for any sort of move to justify bringing him back up.

The real test for this Marlins team will be how they do against the Yankees this weekend. There's a good team with a much fuller lineup and a much scarier pitching staff. Can they show they can be a spoiler, even this early? Or will this go...just about as well as everyone's thinking it will?

Coming Tomorrow- A guy that made a postseason roster, than an Opening Day roster, then he hit a ton of home runs.

On the Verge [Once Again]

 
It's weird that one of the themes of the 2020s in general have been 'the Marlins and Reds are good enough to contend but not good enough to ever do anything', but here we are. 

That's why I think the first year of this decade having an expanded playoff field was absolutely wild, because in a sense it illuminated not only the passing fads of the time [the White Sox, Ross Cubs and the A's], but it revealed the sort of teams that could be something if it were 18 teams every year. Of course, that year, both the Reds and Marlins made it, and if you'll recall the Marlins actually beat the Cubs in a playoff series, eventually getting swept by the Braves because how can you not?? Since then, both teams have flirted with long-term success, with the 2023 Marlins making a Wild Card series but getting embarrassed by the Phillies, and last year's Reds getting immediately bounced by the Dodgers. 

But both teams have regularly been in playoff conversations. The Reds have the angle of 'they're in a tough division but look at what they have'. Any playoff push that involves Elly de la Cruz and Hunter Greene is gonna get eyes on it, and last year with help from Ke'Bryan Hayes, Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar, they were right there with the other wild card hopefuls. You can also see them continuing to build a long term competitor, calling up Sal Stewart late last year and banking on both Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns for crucial 2026 roles, plus the addition of Eugenio Suarez back in the heart of that lineup. Yet, again, thanks to the Brewers and Cubs they are a borderline playoff team, and this is a year where they might have to work extra hard to keep the Pirates at bay. 

The Marlins have been competitive less frequently, but when it does happen it's always a fun burst of energy. Last year the team was a late wild card spoiler that failed to fully materialize, and as a result the team lost Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Dane Myers, Eric Wagaman and Troy Johnston. The joy of this team is there's a ton of young options that can pop right up and take over, and Owen Caissie, Heriberto Hernandez and Graham Pauley are all in play for crucial positions. The core of the team is still a sneakily effective young mix of former organizational castoffs, including Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee and Agustin Ramirez. Griffin Conine, Connor Norby and Eury Perez are eyeing full breakout seasons. Even in a division as tough as the NL East, you can never completely count out the Marlins, and even if it requires less-than-dignified means, the Marlins can power their way through some insane wins.

Not that it'll be easy for either team. The Reds will begin the season without Hunter Greene, and the Marlins just lost Kyle Stowers for a few weeks. But the fact that we're talking about this possibility at all means it hasn't been completely counted out. The Mets could bottom out again in August, as could the Cubs. Both the Reds and the Marlins can take advantage of a lull, and make it their own. It'll be interesting to see if this can happen for either, or both, this year.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2025: Marlins

 

In a year where the usual NL spoiler, the New York Mets, were too depressed to actually catch would-be competitors, the surprise spoiler may have been the Miami Marlins. They were never gonna make the playoffs, especially not with such a disappointing year from Sandy Alcantara, but they were good enough to make it interesting, and may have provided crucial losses that kept the Cardinals, Rangers, Royals and, yes, the Mets from making the playoffs, plus a few losses that kept the Tigers from taking the Central. They set themselves up for an even bigger year in 2026, with so many young pieces primed to take major roles. If Kyle Stowers is back in full force, there's definitely a chance for some damage.

Another cool factor would be a full season from Griffin Conine. Conine, son of the beloved '03 Marlins outfielder, had a brief come up in 2024 with some great contact work, then got an Opening Day spot this year. However, not too far into April he was stopped by an injury that held him out until September, robbing him of what could have been a breakout season. In 24 games, Conine hit .253 with 2 homers and 8 RBIs. 

2026 Prediction: 150 games, 100+ hits, and people mad he didn't make the ASG.

Ryan Weathers had a similar predicament in 2025, and honestly in 2024 as well. He was guaranteed a rotation spot this year, but couldn't stay healthy enough to really take advantage of it. At the very least the material the Marlins got from Weathers this year was still good, as he had a 3.99 ERA with 37 Ks in 8 starts. But again, having him missing 23 starts meant that the Marlins needed to get replacement guys for a lot of the season.

2026 Prediction: 20 starts, a 3 ERA, and some trade chatter.

The addition of a utility gold glove has allowed for some unsung heroes to get their due, and this year it meant that rookie utility man Javier Sanoja got a trophy immediately. Sanoja was mostly an extra outfielder that backed up Connor Norby, and his defense was excellent wherever they played him. Offensively he wasn't always as reliable, with a .243 average, 6 homers and 38 RBIs, but I want to make it clear that his best offensive moments of the season were almost all against the Philadelphia Phillies. In 11 Phils games, Sanoja hit .385 with 8 RBIs and one homer, far and away his best average against any divisional opponent. 

2026 Prediction: Starts a bit more, hits a bit more, still kills the Phils.

The Marlins were without usual catcher Nick Fortes for a lot of the season, so presumed backup, and rookie, Liam Hicks, a Toronto native netted in the previous year's rule 5 draft, ended up as the defacto starter for a lot of the season. It proved to be a good move, as Hicks was a slight upgrade at the plate, hitting .247 with 82 hits in 119 games. In 13 May games, Hicks was hitting .313 with 7 RBIs and 3 homers, giving him the gig until Agustin Ramirez would give him a little competition.

2026 Prediction: So Hicks is a better defender than Ramirez, but Ramirez' bat is gonna need to be in that lineup everyday. I think they platoon things so Hicks still starts more often than not, and he has a similarly fine year. Though if any Marlins catcher is gonna get dealt, it will be Hicks.

Speaking of competition, Connor Norby, in an injury-plagued year, struggled to cement himself as well as fellow Baltimore farmhand Kyle Stowers in a full year in Miami. He only played in 88 games, and shared time with Graham Pauley and Javier Sanoja upon his return. He hit .251 with 8 homers and 34 RBIs in that time, which is still decent production, to the degree that he was at in 2024.

2026 Prediction: The Marlins give him third from the jump, he keeps it all year and had a 30+ homer season.

The Marlins' most effective bullpen piece this year was Anthony Bender, after settling in last year. Bender's season was shortened with 2 months left to go, but in 51 games he had a 2.16 ERA and a 1.060 WHIP. 

2026 Prediction: Ronny Henriquez has ensured he won't need to close, but he'll still be the go-to setup guy and come close to his 2025 heights.

In his stead, the Marlins gave a ton more reps to Tyler Phillips, who broke out last year with a terrific couple of starts for the Phillies, followed by a depressing drop-off. Being rejected by the Phils' fans made Phillips pretty angry, cause he's from the Philly area, and upon becoming a relief specialist in Miami he channeled that to great success, smacking himself before appearances, and preserving a deadpan, realist guise in postgame interviews. It may not be healthy behavior, but it paid off on the ballfield, with a 2.78 ERA, a 1.146 WHIP and a 1.9 WAR in 54 games and 77 innings. He can do long work, he can get saves, and he made the Bender loss a ton less crucial.

2026 Prediction: Well I sincerely hope he lightens up. Maybe has to fill-in as closer and does alright. Maybe they need him to start at some point and does alright there too.

With all the great rookies on this Marlins team, many of which I've spoken about here, it's easy to overlook Heriberto Hernandez, but judging by the fact that he got a small bit of ROY votes, there could be something here as well. In 87 games, Hernandez hit .266 with 10 homers and 45 RBIs, as an OF bat but also as a DH. The Marlins have Stowers and Ramirez as power bats, but Hernandez could be right there with him.

2026 Prediction: Gets more OF starts, has a 25 homer year.

Coming Tomorrow- So many New York Mets.

September 2025 in Review [ft. Ronny Henriquez]

 

In the years I've been doing these month by month reflection posts, I've never seen the picture of a season change as dramatically as it had this season. We had stakes in April that were completely overhauled by a new breed of competitor, and teams so battered by injuries that they couldn't follow the path set out for them by previous years. And it culminated in one of the wildest Septembers in recent memory. So of course it's worth it to look back on what the hell went on there.

First, let's look at the 5 bold predictions I made last month:

1. At least one laughably humiliating breakdown from a team at this point expected to make the playoffs. THE NEW YORK METS. Absolutely, positively the Mets. The Astros could go in here as well. 

2. Schwarber and Raleigh have some Sosa/McGwire style intrigue as they clobber further. I guess you could say this happened, though it was a bit subdued compared to Sosa and McGwire. Raleigh still got to 60 though, which is pretty huge.

3. At least one really good divisional series with serious stakes. Bunch of these actually. Guardians-Tigers had excellent moments, there was a great Reds-Brewers series, a Mariners-Stros one that cemented the Mariners' status. I forget if that last Phils-Mets series was this month but that too.

4. At least one rookie really gets people excited for 2026. I suppose Samuel Basallo counts. Had such a big aura around him that the O's locked him up over Rutschman. I guess Jonah Tong and Brandon Sproat also go here. 

5. One of the onlookers in the AL Wild Card race [Royals, Rangers, Guardians even] makes a Tigers-esque run. THE CLEVELAND GUARDIANS. Holy moly, what an amazing month they had.

And that ties directly into 5 things from September 2025 that nobody could have predicted:

1. The Guardians lap the Tigers. The lead that the Tigers had midyear that they managed to completely destroy over a month or so is going to be studied. It's not that anything in that team stopped working, it's just that the close games they were winning in the first half weren't getting won because instead of bringing on young talent the Tigers brought on 5 pitchers over 30 and none of them did what they were supposed to. I mean...I guess Kyle Finnegan did, but then he got hurt. Meanwhile, the Guardians suddenly clicked into an awesome rotation schematic of Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Joey Cantillo, Slade Cecconi and Parker Messick and absolutely rolled into the playoffs. I saw the Guardians make a ton of mistakes midyear and have truly awful stretches, and something just clicked in a way that the Tigers couldn't this year. Them immediately having to play each other in the wild card series is gonna be pretty insane.

2. The Reds send the Mets to Cancun. I had...HOPED for the Mets to fall off, but I didn't think the Reds would be able to do it. Their team is scrappy, useful, but not fully developed. Elly wasn't hitting homers for 2 solid months. Abbott and Greene would blow a start right after soaring. But somehow, the Reds kept winning enough close matches, even against the Brewers, to stay in it, while the Mets just kept getting owned by people they were supposed to sweep. Once the Reds had the tiebreaker, and the leverage, nothing the Mets could do would have saved them. I don't know how WELL the Reds are gonna do against the Dodgers, but the fact that they could get there over the Mets, who had such a lead at one point, is something they should be proud of.

3. The Mariners come alive like never before. I had always said that if the Mariners tapped into their potential and played as well as they looked on paper, they'd be a playoff team. In September, this happened. After getting swept by the Rays and losing one to the Braves, the Mariners turned around and never looked back, winning 10 straight, then winning 7 straight, including a sweep of the Astros, sealing their fates. Suarez is finally taking off as a Mariner, Gilbert and Castillo have stepped up, Julio and Randy are still killing it and Raleigh hit 60. Not only are the Mariners in, they're a playoff threat, and I'm so happy to see it.

4. The Marlins become the ultimate spoilers. The Marlins surprised me this year by being a good team that just kept being too underdeveloped to be taken seriously. The formula of guys like Kyle Stowers, Xavier Edwards, Agustin Ramirez and eventually Heriberto Hernandez and Griffin Conine just finding new and different ways to get past pitching definitely works. And the fact that they eventually became wise to their own strengths and decided to get hot down the stretch and chase competitors made for a great finish. During their September run they took 2 from Detroit, swept the Rangers, and used Alcantara, Perez and Cabrera to land the final blow on the Mets' season. Imagine how good this team will look with everything finalized. 

5. The Dodgers don't get a first round bye. In March this would have shocked people. But honestly, you can't have that many injuries and still be the best team in the league. It helped that Glasnow, Snell, Muncy and Sasaki returned for September and helped them outlast the Padres, but there was so much lost time due to those injury issues. It also doesn't help that Will Smith is probably out for a bit, and the bullpen is a complete mess at the moment. This Dodgers team is still ultimately the Dodgers, and could still dominate this year, but...they didn't finish the regular season as hugely as everyone thought.

And counterpoint to that, we also have 5 things from September 2025 that lots of people could have predicted:

1. The Yankees make it close for the division title. I don't think anybody was expecting the Yankees to completely lay down and die this year, this wasn't 2023. There was enough talent to get this team back into the mix, and with Grisham, Chisholm, Bellinger and Stanton all surging this month, it was always gonna be a possibility. Ultimately the midyear slide made it so that it was never gonna be enough to catch Toronto, but the Yankees were always gonna be a factor.

2. The Padres forget to make it close for the division title. The thing I noticed about the Padres this year is that they'd have these hot streaks, and then the second everyone noticed they were hot they'd respond by completely leveling out and trying to sweep it under the rug. They were always close to lapping the Dodgers and then they'd get to actually PLAY the Dodgers and it wouldn't come together. I'm assuming there's a chance they'll run into each other again if...things completely turn inward for both high seeded teams, but the Padres could have surprised people and just chose not to.

3. Alex Anthopolous wasn't gonna let this year end without trying as much crap as possible. Here is a list of all the waiver claimed players that came to Atlanta in the last three months. Erick Fedde, Vidal Brujan, Ha-Seong Kim, Stuart Fairchild, Jake Fraley, Brett Wisely, Joey Wentz, Carlos Carrasco, Dane Dunning, Cal Quantrill, Joel Payamps, Alexis Diaz, Alek Manoah, and finally Charlie Morton. That is a lot of people. Many of them, like Kim and Manoah especially, might be in the mix for next season. Several more contributed to the late season swell that saw a random 10-game winning streak. If the Braves are awesome again next year, it's cause Anthopolous never stops working. 

4. Paul Skenes is going to win the Cy Young award. Not even Cristopher Sanchez can come close. Dude's just on another level. Shame about the team though.

5. Once they actually have a good rotation, the Orioles are a halfway decent baseball team. Bradish and Wells came back, Rogers straightened out, Kremer and Sugano got over the hump, and somehow this is a team that can win the close games again. I really hope Mansolino keeps his job, as he seemed to be the main force that turned the team around this year, aside from everybody getting healthy again. 

Now, here are my picks for the 5 most important players of September 2025:

1. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

2. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

3. Hunter Greene, Cincinnati Reds

4. Garrett Crochet, Boston Red Sox

5. Nolan McLean, New York Mets

And finally, 5 bold predictions for this coming postseason

1. Some wild card team gets insanely hot and drives the narrative for a while.

2. Someone who is not going to win the Cy Young has some incredible moments that makes some sportswriters second-guess themselves during voting [I call this the Corey Kluber in 2016 factor]

3. A perennial postseason thumper does something crazy again. Y'know, a Giancarlo or a Schwarber or a Muncy, someone like that.

4. This one's really bold: we went the whole season without a no-hitter but someone pitches one in October.

5. The team that wins the World Series is one who hasn't won it lately, or at all, and truly deserves it. Maybe wishful thinking there but sue me. 

For Tomorrow

 

These days, unless you debut in like mid-May or whatever, you're probably not getting a Topps rookie card in the calendar year you debut. The cutoff keeps zipping back up, to the point where it wouldn't shock me if, by the end of the decade, there was no room to do anything in Update except redo half of flagship regardless of anything that's happened during the season. I think about the fact that Jacob Misiorowski, Cam Schlittler, Roman Anthony, Kyle Teel and Cole Young won't have cards in Update because the Topps printing schedule is now at 1978 levels apparently. In 2011 they'd all be fine. That's the shitty part. 2011 Update, the city upon a hill Topps knows they're matching up to with Update sets, at least could include rookies from later in the season. If it had today's standards, Mike Trout would have to wait til 2012 Topps to see cards. That'd be worth way less. 

I look at some of these guys who came up in August differently though. Wouldn't have made the cutoff anyway, probably a shoo-in for 2026 Topps, mostly up to run out the clock. Good previews of what's to come. And that's how you describe guys like Jakob Marsee and Parker Messick. Just appetizers for what could happen in a full season.

Jakob Marsee, I'd say from the moment he came up for the Marlins, seemed like one of the most powerful young hitters in the game. In 36 games he has 41 hits, 25 RBIs, 4 homers and a .926 OPS. He's showing more offensive ability and versatility than a lot of people on this team. The majority of this team is guys like Dane Myers and Xavier Edwards and Derek Hill, replacement level guys from other systems who CAN have good seasons now while waiting for organizational pieces to come up. And in the last year or so we've seen genuine keepers show up, like Kyle Stowers, Edward Cabrera, Otto Lopez, Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez. Marsee seems like the next step forward, because you can see the team circling around him and setting him up as the big piece. 

Then you have Parker Messick, who just became a viable rotation option with the Guardians. Parker Messick has made 4 major league starts, and already he ranks 7th on the team in WAR. Honestly that says more about the Guardians this year than it does Messick, they have a lot of replacement level disappointments on the roster this year, or guys who are good for like a month and then drop off. But still, in those four starts, Messick has displayed a starting dominance that rarely anyone else in Cleveland has shown this year. Maybe Ben Lively before he got hurt, but all of Bibee, Allen and Williams have had their awful stretches. Messick, since activation, has a 2-0 record, a 1.93 ERA and 18 Ks. He's figured out how to keep runs down and not overexert himself, and that might be enough. I do wonder what a full season of that will look like, because last year we had a low-K, all-dominance pitcher in Valente Bellozo and this year we found the limits of that. So it'll be interesting to see if Messick is a full season success given a revitalized Guardians rotation.

I see Jakob Marsee having a bit more staying power than Messick, but you can never tell from just a couple months in the bigs. Maybe we'll find out next year..

Coming Tomorrow- After several years of injury-plagued obscurity, a guy that almost won Rookie of the Year and lost to some has-been named Ohtani roars back with a team desperate to stay in the race.

The Bus Stops Here

 

Okay. So the Marlins aren't a playoff team. As cool as their July surge was, they're not getting over .500, and they're way too inexperienced to craft a decent competitive performance. They also just lost Kyle Stowers to an injury, and Edward Cabrera seems to be calming down tremendously in August. So this really seems like a 'the horror is over' season without the benefit of a great ending.

However. I now know way more about the direction of this Marlins team than I did last year. Because last year, Kyle Stowers, Connor Norby and Eury Perez were all question marks, and now we know the team can rely on them. And last year, this Marlins team didn't have Liam Hicks, Ronny Henriquez, Agustin Ramirez, Heriberto Hernandez, Jakob Marsee or Janson Junk in position to succeed, and now they do. Hicks might be a more confident catching choice going forward than Fortes, Henriquez joins Bender as an excellent relief option, Hernandez has been hot this month, Marsee has been hitting like a storm ever since the call-up, and Junk allowed for some stability in June.

Of all of them, Agustin Ramirez might be the most important piece. The Marlins have, in the same farm system, two different pieces that can absolutely annihilate the ball despite some sloppy mechanics. They have Ramirez and they have Deyvison de los Santos. De los Santos hit 40 homers in the minors last year, and the fact that he's only hit 12 this year probably tells you why he hasn't made the majors yet. Ramirez got off to the better start this year, and had more contact luck in Jacksonville, which is why he's here. So far, despite being a downgrade defensively, Ramirez has 18 home runs and 56 RBIs, and has been one of the team leaders in production. Ramirez has the second-highest slugging percentage on the team, being Stowers and Hernandez. Even if all Ramirez will be is a power-hitting DH, that's still a good thing for the Marlins, as they need guys like that. Stowers, Marsee, Hernandez and Ramirez all look to contribute to this team for the foreseeable future, and the power numbers are gonna be insane if they all continue to pitch in like this.

Ultimately this team is gonna need to figure out how to keep their starters in one place without anybody getting hurt or falling off. They seem to have gotten Alcantara working, but they've gotten 3 straight bad starts from Cabrera. Weathers is still hurt, Garrett probably isn't showing up at all this year. Perez has been pretty good at least. If those five were all good at the same time we wouldn't be talking about what could have happened. But they all picked their moments and everything was spread out. With Ryan Gusto and Adam Mazur in the mix, who knows if all 5 will even get that chance next year.

At the very least, it is unlikely the Marlins will finish in last, they will be somewhat close to .500, and Clayton McCullough will probably keep his job. The bar will be slightly higher next year though.

Coming Tomorrow- He's been stalling for so long on living up to his reputation as a prospect that his midyear turn has caught a lot of fans off guard.

Worth the Wait?

 
Back in March, I had a post talking about guys who'd been out for a while that may factor into this season, and a lot of them were people like Ronny Mauricio, Endy Rodriguez, Alek Manoah and Kris Bryant, who really haven't. A few of them I was onto something, like Mike Trout having a relatively full season or Brandon Woodruff being a true force upon activation. But these two above were two of the ones I really wanted to work out, because for the amount of time they'd missed, if they'd fizzled out it wouldn't have been worth it.

Trevor Story signed his contract with the Red Sox in 2022, and after a decent-enough but still injury-shortened first year in Boston, Story kept having the absolute worst health luck over the next 2 seasons. 2023 would last only 43 games, and 2024 would last only 26. Unlike Anthony Rendon, with Story you got the sense that he genuinely hated missing time, and wanted more than anything to be able to contribute to this team. And so 2025 being a full, consistent and hot year for Story feels like a very fitting payoff.

Lately, Story has felt like one of the hottest hitters in the Sox lineup, which says something considering Jarren Duran, Wilyer Abreu, Masataka Yoshida and Roman Anthony are also in there. Story is hitting .260 with 19 homers, 73 RBIs [leading the team] and 19 steals, some very solid numbers for the veteran infielder. Since mid-June he's been particularly potent, and his coming into vogue recently has really helped matters, especially as Rafaela and Bregman have calmed down a bit. After too many seasons where the guy the Sox had paid all that money to play shortstop didn't end up playing much shortstop, it's a welcome surge, especially since the guy they paid all that money to play third base...well, you know. 

Eury Perez has had a similarly satisfying resurgence. His rookie season in 2023 was a breath of fresh air that helped propel the Marlins towards October. As a 20-year-old rookie, Perez was eerily dominant, posting a 3.15 ERA and 108 Ks in 19 starts. Then he gets hurt, misses all of 2024 and doesn't come back til partway into 2025. Even with everything in Miami that hasn't worked out, Sandy Alcantara especially, Perez has been exactly what people had been wanting. In 11 starts he's got a 3.25 ERA, 52 Ks and a 1.012 WHIP. Even on a team like the Marlins, who either don't show up or score 12 points off you, he's been very reliable. Him and Edward Cabrera have been the rare elements from the 2023 rotation that still seem to be working as well as everyone thought. 

Both of these teams have been trending upward thanks to these returning guys, and both of these teams are factoring heavily into divisions that were previously thought settled. The Sox are now ahead of the Yankees in the AL East standings, and look to keep their leverage as the Yankees begin to fight back. The Marlins are juuuust on the tip of the wild card race, and have enough momentum and spoiler energy that they could sneak in, especially as their lineup keeps pounding away at even formidable teams. 

Hopefully from here, these two can stay healthy and consistent, and keep their fanbases from waiting without end for their return.

Coming Tomorrow- The Twins have absolutely nothing left, but they do have this one rookie that's finally healthy again.

Junk Baller

 

It amazes me that the Marlins are in third. They, by all accounts, resemble a last place team, and would be a fourth place team in most other divisions, but thanks to A.) the Nationals being a complete dumpster fire and B.) the Braves somehow not having a competitive team this year, here they are in third. They're being led by a genuine star-making performance from Kyle Stowers, some very strong starting seasons from Edward Cabrera and Eury Perez, and the comeback of the century from a guy everybody wrote off.

The name 'Janson Junk' is not one you soon forget. When he came up with the Angels in late 2021, I heard the name and assumed he was a craftsman. The thing with Junk in the majors is that, the few chances he got, he wasn't really able to make much of an impression. A mix of injuries and hierarchy issues caused him to get lost in the shuffle in LA, and he was mostly a mop-up starter in other markets. The Marlins gave him a shot after some great starts in Jacksonville, and for the big league club, Junk has been a surprise hit. Yes, he got lit up last start, but he's got a 3.09 ERA and 39 Ks in 11 appearances. Junk worked in long relief, he's worked in the rotation, he's got 4 wins, and he's been more consistent than Sandy Alcantara. 

That's the wild part. The narrative going into this season was 'Sandy's back, everybody watch out'. Sandy is...not good this year. And for a while it looked like it would ruin this team's chances. This was before they brought up Agustin Ramirez and activated Eury Perez. Somehow the meek-looking youth movement has been lifting this team. Ramirez is a production machine, with 14 homers and 44 RBIs. Otto Lopez has 52 RBIs and is statistically the team's best player. Nick Fortes, Jesus Sanchez and Dane Myers are playing strong roles in this team. And look at Kyle Stowers go, hitting .295 with 22 homers and 61 RBIs. Stowers is mashing in a way he simply couldn't in Baltimore, and I'm glad it's finally happening.

Now, considering that the Marlins are still under .500, and have to play in a division with the Phillies and Mets and have like 5 other wild card opponents with better cases, I'm not certain anything's going to truly happen with this team. They had a streak, some big July wins, some offensive dominance. They still need 2 or 3 more great starters, a few more lineup pieces far above replacement level, and one more sure star. I think if Griffin Conine hadn't gotten hurt I'd be a bit more confident. I'm cool with them being a spoiler but unless something really erupts I'm not sure if they'll be much more than that.

Coming Tomorrow- The Mets traded for him then gave up on him. And then the White Sox gave him a go.

Land of Too Many Backup Plans

 

I think the Marlins have a right to be frustrated. The thing that was supposed to be the factor that thrust them back into the race, that being Sandy Alcantara, hasn't done what it's supposed to. The last year and a half has been leading up to the return of Alcantara, a Marlins hero to this point, and he just hasn't been the same. He currently has a 6.98 ERA, is 4-8, and just today melted down against the D-Backs, which would have been a lot worse of a look had the Marlins not come back and won it. It's confusing everyone, it's confusing the Marlins, it's confusing all the people that were gonna trade for Alcantara, it's confusing Alcantara. 

And while the Marlins weren't quite expected to lead the East, it's put them at even more of a disadvantage. Cause they don't have peak Alcantara, they haven't gotten peak Eury Perez, they lost Griffin Conine right when he was about to win a starting spot, and they're without Ryan Weathers for even more time. And, to add insult to injury, they just lost Max Meyer. The plan is going out the window, and we're getting to the point where they could be just trying shit out and hoping it works. Yet...as all this is happening, the Marlins are...on a winning streak. They've won their last 6 games, and 7 out of their last 8. Something, even if it is, like...brief...is happening.

The most important part of the Marlins' season so far is actually forming a solid lineup of people who will likely be sticking around for a while. Going into this season it was pretty much just Jesus Sanchez, but now Kyle Stowers, Dane Myers, Otto Lopez, Liam Hicks and Agustin Ramirez have all felt like everyday guys for this team. Hicks came out of practically nowhere, took advantage of an early injury from Nick Fortes and has made himself a more feasible catching option, hitting .279 with 4 homers and 26 RBIs. Ramirez has been a much needed power bat, with 12 homers and 31 RBIs in 56 games; he and Stowers have upped the power numbers by a ton for this team. Myers is a .300 hitter with great speed; granted, he's 29, and has taken forever to stay put in the majors, but he can continue at this pace and give the Marlins something. Then the Marlins bring up Heriberto Hernandez, another .300-hitting outfielder, and you're seeing the pieces of a really fun, varied team begin to form. Eventually this team will find a perennial first baseman, as neither Eric Wagaman nor Matt Mervis are the answer, but they've got a surprising amount pinned down.

And while the rotation has suffered with the number of holes thus far, you're still seeing some people who know what they're doing. Edward Cabrera is the most crucial one of these. The thing you expect from Cabrera at this point is at least a month or so of injury, and at least a month or so of bad pitching, and then some sweet spot that makes it all worth it. We're currently in that. He currently leads the team in strikeouts with 69, has a 3.78 ERA, and has been excellent all June. Janson Junk is like that too, he went from being a longman to starting, and has been responsible for some really dominant outings in between the occasional shellacking. There are still guys who are solely there to eat innings, Cal Quantrill chief among them, but you're seeing signs of life. And if you're getting offense, sometimes that can win games.

The Marlins' surprise surge has put them ahead of the Nats in the standings. They may have more to them than we all previously thought, and that could lead to something cool eventually.

Coming Tomorrow- The Dodgers flipped him for a 2nd baseman and two relievers that got them a ring. So the fact that he's done anything for the guys they dealt him to is a big deal. 

Don't Get Too Comfortable..

 

The Marlins have a relatively straightforward week ahead of them. They're playing the Rockies right now [and have already dropped a game], then get to play the Rays, Pirates and Nationals. All teams that aren't terribly competitive, and all teams where they have a chance of winning some games. And hopefully they do, because after that stretch the next time they get to play a team with a record close to theirs is the Orioles series...right before the ASG break.

Which means the Marlins are about 10 days away from spending practically a month facing teams that are trying to compete. Fasten your seatbelts, boys...

I think there was a belief that the Marlins would be better this year, because so many pieces got set up last fall, and they'd be going in with a healthy Sandy Alcantara, and really nothing productive has happened. Alcantara has completely fallen apart since coming back from his surgery, with an 8.47 ERA and a 2-7 record. Whatever the case, he was clearly not like this before, and hopefully he's able to rebound over time. Meanwhile, Jesus Sanchez, thought to be the marquee star this year, has barely factored into the Marlins' season at all, hitting .268 through 40 games. Most of the slack is being picked up by people like Dane Myers, Xavier Edwards and Derek Hill, all of whom have [or continue to] spent time on the IL this year. 

And so once again, the biggest WAR guys on the Marlins are the unsung role-players, rather than full on dominators [though Kyle Stowers and Anthony Bender are getting there]. Otto Lopez, for the second year in a row, has put together a great season on the grounds of his own defensive prowess. He's only hitting .239, but he [like Hill, Myers and Javier Sanoja] has above-average defensive ability, and his SS work has given the Marlins a crucial piece. Myers is similar, having a great season in center while also batting .315 with 14 RBIs in 33 games. According to the WAR chart, the Marlins' best starter right now is Valente Bellozo, he of the low-Ks and keep-it-in mentality, though Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers are certainly gaining on him with their more conventional seasons.

You can see the skeleton of a decent team with this Marlins club. Kyle Stowers, Ryan Weathers, Otto Lopez and Anthony Bender are the kind of guys you can build a team around...that is, if you decide not to trade them. And considering they've all arrived in Miami through trades, that's kind of ironic. 

Coming Tonight: Another Lopez, ironically a former Marlin himself. Currently on a much better team.

Meyer Lemon

 

The prevailing theory when the Marlins lost Sandy Alcantara to a year-ending injury and then dropped out of the playoffs was 'well, once he comes back then the team will be good again'. We're currently witnessing evidence to the contrary.

It's not like the Marlins aren't a wealth of talent right now. A lot of the people playing badly are guys who have been very good, and have been put into an opportunity to continue to do well. It's just not happening. Sandy Alcantara, Edward Cabrera, Cal Quantrill and Connor Gillispie all have ERAs over 6 and negative WARs. Alcantara has an 8.42 ERA with 29 earned runs already, a far cry from his 2022 Cy Young season. The only competent starters at the moment [as Ryan Weathers and Eury Perez are still hurt] are Max Meyer, who's had terrible luck his last few starts and now has a 4.37 ERA, and Valente Bellozo, the ultimate low-K, keep-it-in-the-park craftsman. The point of someone like that is not to put that much weight on them. But, y'know, if Alcantara was actually pitching well then they wouldn't have to. I genuinely feel like Meyer, Cabrera and Alcantara could put together great seasons if circumstances are different, but there have been a lot of gutter balls, and a lot of teams that just light up the Marlins. 

The hitting might be just as snakebitten this year. Jesus Sanchez missed a ton of time and now arguably isn't at 100%, Otto Lopez had a great start then got hurt, Griffin Conine clicked in the majors then immediately needed major surgery, and both Nick Fortes and Connor Corby missed big chunks of April before helping out more recently. You can tell the situation's dire when losing Derek Hill qualifies as a big offensive hit. Statistically, the team's best hitter is former reserve outfielder Dane Myers, who's hitting .338 and has 14 RBIs and 6 steals. The team leader in home runs is Matt Mervis, and he's still not hitting for average. Javier Sanoja had one good series against Philly and hasn't done much else since.

You can at the very least see an offensive backbone growing, between Xavier Edwards, Dane Myers, Kyle Stowers and Agustin Ramirez, all of whom have been great this season. Ramirez is an excellent power bat with 4 homers already, and Stowers has 25 RBIs and a ton of wonderful clutch hits. Clearly there are competent hitters on this team, as evidenced by the team average being .248, a lot better than one would think. There's just a lot of mess, in the pitching, defense and contact. I was kind of hoping there'd be a Marlins team that didn't use as many replacement options in lieu of competent play, but this is apparently where they are still, and this is probably where they'll be for another year or so.

As fun as the Marlins are to talk about on the hitting side, I'm really worried that the pitching will make subsequent Marlins posts really dreary. And with Alcantara back I think that should have been avoided.

Coming Tonight: The comeback player absolutely no one was expecting.

That Certain X-Factor

 

Here's the wildest thing about the 2025 Miami Marlins, already the most fascinating of the 'bad teams' this year. Statistically, their best player right now is a reliever named Lake Bachar. Bachar toiled in the Padres' minor league system for 8 years, signed a deal with the Marlins and snuck onto the roster last year. So far he's been excellent in relief. Bachar is perfect for Miami baseball, because he has he look of someone who just crawled out of a swamp. He's got long hair, asymmetrical eyes, is somehow gangly and bloated at the same time, and looks perpetually like the mysterious insane drifter in a television show. Equal parts Old Man McGucket from Gravity Falls and Horace Goodspeed from Lost. More relievers should look like barroom denizens. We had Rod Beck, we had Bob Wickman, and now Bachar will do the trick.

I bring this up because the Marlins' thing so far this year has been getting wins out of the most anonymous, incomprehensible types of players. Going into the season, the narrative the Marlins were going with was 'Sandy Alcantara is back, Xavier Edwards, Jesus Sanchez and Connor Norby are the stars of this team, and we're building on last season in order to hopefully be good again soon'. Alcantara so far has a 7.27 ERA, Edwards is decent but limited, Norby and Sanchez just got activated and the team again seems to be reshuffling. And...in the most bizarre way, it's kind of working? The Marlins aren't in last, they're scraping by, and yesterday they won on a 5-RBI day from rookie Javier Sanoja, who also hit his first career home run.

This was against the Philadelphia Phillies, by the way. As was the previous game, which the Phillies won but the Marlins nearly flipped by tacking on 6 runs in the ninth. And you can easily go 'oh, well the Phillies bullpen is having troubles right now', but if the Marlins' lineup wasn't sneakily good then they never would have had much of an issue. 

Right now the Marlins' best starter is Max Meyer, who had some excellent 2024 starts despite spending a chunk of the year in the minors. He's got a 2.10 ERA and 41 Ks so far, and as we speak he's silencing the Reds' offense. The team's best power hitter is former Cubs prospect Matt Mervis, who has 6 homers and 12 RBIs despite struggling in most other aspects. Kyle Stowers is undeniably the team's best clutch hitter, as he's been proving since the season started. And the best defender is Otto Lopez, though his contact numbers aren't all the way there yet this year. Plus, Ronny Simon and Agustin Ramirez got called up tonight and both have fit snugly into the equation. 

The injuries to this team...you'd think would be more destructive. Obviously Eury Perez and Braxton Garrett are out for a bit, but this team is also without Ryan Weathers, Nick Fortes and now, just as he was getting going, Griffin Conine. And yet the roster depth and farm system are keeping the Marlins in it right now. Maybe not in the starting pitching division, but the variable quality of the lineup is definitely keeping the team fresh. Dane Myers, Eric Wagaman and Liam Hicks have played crucial roles in this team despite having more minor roles at the onset of the season. Only one person has truly outright failed so far, and he's off the team...though Cal Quantrill is close to that designation. 

The Marlins, despite any indication that they would be, aren't terrible this year. They aren't GREAT, but they haven't been as much of a disappointment as someone like Atlanta. Hopefully they build on this.

Coming Tomorrow- Fifteen years ago, if you had told me that this guy, all those years later, would still be starting for Cleveland, now coming off a gold glove season as a 1st baseman, I wouldn't have believed you.