My Unofficial 2024 Baseball Hall of Fame Ballot

 This Hall of Fame year is the kind of one I'd known was on the horizon for a couple years. Because we've had a couple 'I guess it's just this guy' years in a row now. Obviously 2021, where nobody got in, and then we've just had years where people who'd been on there for a while, like Scott Rolen, pop in and a lot of people settle around 60%. After 2019, where a bunch of people got in, we haven't had many overwhelming HOF classes. And this year has the potential to be one.

It's not quite certain how many people are in. My guess is there's three that are probably in, and maybe two more that have the potential to sneak in if the other half of the votes go their way. And with virtually every last one of these ballot members being people I grew up watching, or was blogging in their heyday, it's a pretty big year for the Hall of Fame. Also, considering that next year could be an even bigger year with two surefire inductees and three with really intriguing cases [not counting the two holdovers from this year that I think are future HOFers anyway], we might be seeing an influx of great players heading to Cooperstown in the next stretch. 

So the way the 2024 voting goes is very important. This could be the first of many big HOF years. So it's very exciting writing this post, even if it doesn't mean anything.

As per usual, I'm adhering to the BBWAA standards, meaning I'm limited to 10 names. I'm not sure if I'll do a full 10, but there's a lot of borderline cases that are now looking a lot more legit. 

So here are the names I'm going with, and the people on this ballot that I would vote for Hall of Fame enshrinement this year:

Bobby Abreu

Even 5 years into his eligibility for HOF enshrinement, Bobby Abreu has just been unlucky. With so many other cases that have come from the background in, like Edgar Martinez, Scott Rolen, Larry Walker, and now people like Andruw Jones and Billy Wagner, there hasn't been much room for Abreu's case to be discussed. I think it's a phenomenal case, as his prime years were electric for baseball. Abreu's one of five non-steroid-abusing players on this ballot with a career WAR over 60, and a lot of that is thanks to his Phils run, where he gathered 47.2 WAR, more than 8 ballot members' career totals, and hit .303 with 1474 hits. Nobody came close to him as a contact bat or as a defender. I think his post-31 numbers sour the case for many people, but [like another Phillie on here] no one can deny the power he was capable of in his prime. He's got 5 more years for people to catch on, and I really hope they do.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

Odds of 2024 Induction: 20 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 10 to 1

Carlos Beltran

The way Beltran has been polling on preexisting ballots, it's looking like the Astros scandal is enough to give him a handicap for the foreseeable future. Yet I still think Beltran's a Hall of Famer. It's different from the steroids guys, because the primes of their careers were affected by cheating, and Beltran started cheating right at the very end. You take the 2017 season out of the equation when dissecting Carlos Beltran's numbers, first of all his career WAR raises to 70.9. Secondly, his career batting average raises to .281. You can't exactly make fun subtractions like that with Bonds and Clemens without sacrificing MLB seasons and record-breaking years. What's one age-40 season? Beltran was still one of the best hitters in the game during the 2000s, was a hero for the Mets and Cardinals, and was a power bat even into his late 30s. I think he deserves to be in, and at the same time, the cold shoulder most sportswriters are giving him right now is still warranted. 
Team of Induction: New York Mets
Odds of 2024 Induction: 7 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 5 to 1

Adrian Beltre

Every Hall of Fame roster deserves a sure bet, and this is 2024s: Adrian Beltre is a member of the 3000 hit club, was 23 home runs away from 500, led the league in hits, doubles and homers at multiple points in his career, had all of his All Star Game appearances come after his 30th birthday, never struck out more than 120 times, won both a gold glove AND a silver slugger at 32, and has a 93.5 WAR. Beltre's in. Everybody knows it, nobody's disputing it. It's just a matter of how close he gets to 100.

Team of Induction: Texas Rangers

Odds of 2024 Induction: Even

Odds of Eventual Induction: Evener

Bartolo Colon

Every year I allow myself one guy who I know is gonna fall right off the ballot that I put up for vanity reasons. This year, and this shouldn't shock you, it is Bartolo Colon. He's not a Hall of Famer, we all know it. But goddamn, the fact that a player like him pitched into his late 40s and was a strong rotation option despite being twice the age of many of his teammates--that is an incredible story and I couldn't help but love it. Colon has the most strikeouts, and the second-most wins, of anyone on the ballot, as well as, unsurprisingly, the most innings pitched. The man may only get like 3 votes this year, but if Bartolo Colon has a million fans, I'm one of 'em, and if he has one fan, it's me.

Team of Induction: Cleveland Guardians

Odds of 2024 Induction: 10,000 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 75 to 1

Todd Helton

Todd Helton on the Hall of Fame ballot, much like his Rockies teammate Larry Walker, was just going to be a matter of when the support would show up. From early numbers on this year's ballot, it's looking like it's finally here. Last year Helton was a good 3% away from induction, and he's been building a case for the last few years. I think he deserves the extra attention, Helton was easily one of the best hitters in the game during the 2000s. When the Rockies made a World Series in 2007, Helton was the star, and he led the charge [along with fellow ballot member Matt Holliday, who deserves more votes than he will be getting]. Helton has 2500+ hits, 350+ homers, and a career .316 average, the highest on the ballot. Helton was an unmistakable presence on those Rockies teams of the 2000s, and his contact numbers should help ring in a very contact-heavy HOF class.

Team of Induction: Colorado Rockies

Odds of 2024 Induction: 3 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 2 to 1

Andruw Jones

Andruw Jones is next in line. Once Sheffield, Helton and possibly Wagner come off the ballot, the sportswriters will be less distracted by other cases in waiting, and actually focus on Jones' numbers. It's something that's been cooking for a while, as Jones pulled 58% on last year's ballot, and looks to pull into the 60s this year. The writeup remains the same: Andruw Jones' career drop-off was ludicrous, but his prime material was incredible. Between 1997 and 2006, Jones hit 337 homers, 1010 RBIs, and 1553 hits, all while playing in World Series', making several ASG appearances, and getting to 50 homers in a season. There have been plenty of Hall of Famers with staggering career dropoffs [Roberto Alomar, Jim Hunter, Jim Kaat], and many players who couldn't accomplish what Jones did in their prime. I think that Jones is a piece of those 90s/00s Braves teams that made them even more of a weapon, and even with Glavine, Maddux, Smoltz, McGriff and Chipper in, Andruw belongs as well, even if it's probably another year away.

Team of Induction: Atlanta Braves

Odds of 2024 Induction: 9 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 6 to 1

Joe Mauer

It's funny, I wasn't sure going into this year if Joe Mauer would be a guy that sportswriters would catch onto. Yeah, great catcher, strong defender who could hit for average, but, like with many others, I thought that the lack of career longevity would turn people away. Judging by how Mauer's been polling so far, this doesn't seem to be much of an issue. Mauer's peak years are pretty incredible, including three seasons where he led the league in average, and that MVP season where he hit .365. Even with an age-35 retirement, Mauer hit 2123 hits and finished with a .306 average. From 2006 to 2010 he had 28.9 WAR, which is a pretty incredible stretch for a catcher. Really, other than Buster Posey, you will not find many great offense-heavy catchers on the ballot anytime soon. Power-hitting catchers maybe, as Victor Martinez is on this one, but Mauer was multi-faceted, versatile, resilient and a perfectly likable baseball guy. I saw him rehabbing for Rochester once and even then he seemed humble as hell. If people are saying he should be in, sure! Why not? Didn't think it'd come this easily.

Team of Induction: Minnesota Twins

Odds of 2024 Induction: 5 to 2

Odds of Eventual Induction: 2 to 1

Jimmy Rollins

Aside from Colon, this is probably the biggest stretch on here. Rollins doesn't have the full career wow of his fellow Phils on the ballot. All Rollins was was just a solid, consistent shortstop with base-running perks and the occasional monster, MVP-caliber season. Like Mauer, though, Rollins was a role model in the clubhouse and a stand-up guy that everyone loved playing with, and that smile added to his stats, including 2455 hits and 470 steals. The odd part is, we're in an era of HOF ballots where there aren't a ton of true classic infielders coming up. It's loads of corner guys right now, the next few infielders to get in will likely be 1st basemen and 3rd basemen. The only other middle infielders on right now are guys that won't get in [Phillips, Reyes] and guys I never want to vote for again [Vizquel]. Thereby, Jimmy Rollins and his former battery partner are the best remaining middle infielders on the ballot. How wild is that? I think the other guy is a surer shot, but I will keep voting for Rollins until I can no longer do so.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

Odds of 2024 Induction: 30 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 15 to 1

Chase Utley

Chase Utley's Hall of Fame case is surprisingly strong. From 2005 to 2010, Utley is one of the most valuable players in baseball, in the same league as Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, Tim Lincecum, Miguel Cabrera and Johan Santana. In this stretch, Utley sports a 45.5 WAR. Albert Pujols only has 7 more in that stretch. Also in that prime block, Utley has 992 hits, 162 homers, 572 RBIs and a .298 average. Ryan Howard was the face of the 2000s Phillies teams, but Chase Utley was probably the better player, as he not only hit like a champ but was a delight to watch at 2nd, which explains why he was a 6-time All-Star. People may keep him out of the Hall for a bit due to his heel turn with the Dodgers, and his bloodthirsty play specifically against the Mets, but Utley may be one of the best 2nd basemen of all time, and one of the sole reasons why the 2008 Phillies went all the way. I think Utley will get in eventually, but I don't think anyone is expecting his numbers to make as much sense for the Hall as they do.

Team of Induction: Philadelphia Phillies

Odds of 2024 Induction: 12 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 4 to 1

Billy Wagner

I've gone back and forth on Wagner. Yes, his stats are incredible, he was one of the best closers in the game from 1997 from 2008, but to the earlier standard I felt like he wasn't much more than just...a solid career closer. And then the last year or so made it clear how fricking rare that is these days. Who's the next closer that deserves Hall of Fame induction after Wagner? Craig Kimbrel? Kenley Jansen? There's nobody who's been completely ironclad in the ninth due to the expansion of bullpens and the rise of more variable relief specialists. And that makes what Wagner did all the more impressive, even if he did make some enemies as he went on. Wagner saved 422 games and rarely had runs scored off of him. He was consistent, reliable, nasty and extremely hard to get the best of. And when a lot of closers have gotten 40 saves while blowing a ton more, Wagner, even down to his last year, was notching 40 saves and leaving with a 1.43 ERA. I think that somebody like Wagner, a consistent closer whose prime was squarely in the 2000s, is a rare breed, and should be inducted because of it. It's not 100% locked in for 2024, but I think he will get in.

Team of Induction: Houston Astros

Odds of 2024 Induction: 5 to 1

Odds of Eventual Induction: 3 to 1

I think 3 guys get in this year. Beltre, Helton and Mauer. Perhaps Wagner sneaks in. But I think it'll be a solid bunch that readies the field for what's coming next year. 

Contract Offloading With a Purpose

 

It had to have been an easy conversation between the GMs of the Mariners and the Giants. "Listen...I paid too much for a guy that always gets injured, YOU paid two much for some guys that always get injured...why don't we make our lives easier there?" And that's why I can sort of get behind the logic that sends Robbie Ray to San Francisco in exchange for Mitch Haniger and Anthony Desclafani. 

First of all, the biggest exclamation point for Mariners fans is 'hey, Haniger's back!' The hard-hitting outfielder provided his best work in Mariners colors, and despite constantly getting off to a great start then immediately getting injured, a presence like that was sorely missed in 2023. Meanwhile, Giants fans got...a guy who has a great start then immediately gets injured. They hadn't exactly been missing that in Evan Longoria's absence. Putting Haniger back in Seattle is good for all involved parties, because he clearly likes it there, and the fans really like him. It also solves a problem the Mariners caused themselves by trading away too many outfielders, as now that Kelenic and probably Teoscar are gone, they have outfield space that Haniger can now fill. It's a very feel good, 'this is how it should have been all along' sort of move.

The 'Disco for Ray' thing is where things get a bit harder to understand.

Trading away Robbie Ray in itself, while on the surface a little baffling, does make sense. As strong as Robbie Ray was in 2022, he was a no-show last year, meaning that the M's had to rely on so many young options to fill the void. Luckily they figured out a really strong rotation schematic by the end of the year, going with Luis Castillo, Logan Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryce Miller and Bryan Woo. Five young, strong, controllable arms that were consistent through the last third of the season. Going into a 2024 with those options AND Emerson Hancock AND Robbie Ray, obviously someone would be sitting out. And this move indicates that the M's would either trade Ray to somewhere less crowded than demote Woo or Miller to keep a veteran on top. It's an efficient, cost-cutting move that makes a ton of sense. 

Now, the part that's a little baffling is what they're gonna do with Anthony Desclafani. Disco is a great pitcher, but he's been even more injury prone than Ray, is older than Ray, and less of a 'let's stick him ahead of the young kids' trap card. So now you just have another low man on the depth chart. Disco will basically be the Chris Flexen of the 2024 rotation- if he gets starts, it will be because of injuries to the young core. If not, he'll be a successful long man and a sturdy arm when he can get there. They're paying him a bit to BE a sixth man, but I think it's the most efficient way through this.

As for Robbie Ray in SF? Honestly, that fit might be the best one of this whole trade. The Giants need to build a rotation that isn't relying too much on Logan Webb, they have people like Kyle Harrison and Keaton Winn working their way up, and aside from Webb and Cobb, they don't have many sure things for the rotation. With Robbie Ray back at 100% hopefully, despite the uncertainty of him being ready for Opening Day, the Giants now have another proven starting weapon that can, hopefully, give you 32 starts and keep you rolling all year long. It takes the pressure off of Webb, and it begins to build this team back as the vets begin to leave. 

Some of the pieces will likely fall into place, but this Giants-Mariners deal actually makes a lot of sense. Now, this Jose Caballero for Luke Raley thing? A team with too many DHs trading for a DH and a team with too many .150 hitting defensive middle infielders trading for a [slightly better] hitting defensive middle infielder? THAT doesn't make a lick of sense. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Yankees

 

The good news is that the 2023 Yankees finished above .500.

Everything else is gonna be what people take away from this season. Poorly-timed injuries, people worth hundreds of millions of dollars not playing to their worth, a guy pitching a perfect game and then getting another domestic abuse suspension, and the single most prized prospect in the organization coming up for 10 games and then immediately needing surgery. That is the 2023 Yankees: tragedy on multiple levels.

There was a lot that went well for the Yanks this year, including a monster season from Gerrit Cole, an impressive rookie year from Anthony Volpe, 37 homers from Judge even in a shortened season, and the knowledge that Juan Soto will be suiting up for us in 2024. But there was a lot of misery, and we had to stomach that.

All I can say is that if you think being a Yankee fan was hard this year, imagine having to root for either of the two football teams in addition. Unrelated, but go Birds.

Giancarlo Stanton essentially confirmed how ill-advised it was to take on a jekyll-or-hyde power machine or injury-prone goat for nearly a decade. He's had some nice years for us, but he's whittled away so much of his early promise, and now he's just taunting us. The good news is that I got to see Stanton hit 2 homers in person this year, including one of the most incredible long-shots I've ever seen. The bad news is that this is really all Stanton can do anymore. In 101 games, Stanton hit .191 with 24 homers and 60 RBIs, passable power numbers but knocked down by his inefficiency otherwise. 

2024 Prediction: Because absolutely no one would expect it, a comeback year DHing.

Nestor Cortes was coming off two excellent years starting for the Yankees, so it was only natural that he'd let us down. Cortes battled injuries all year, and only had 12 games up in the majors in between setbacks. He was decent in that period, with a 5-2 record, a 4.97 ERA and 67 Ks, but compared to his incredible 2022, it wasn't much.

2024 Prediction: Cortes is gonna have an excellent start for us, and make up for lost time, but something tells me that around July the rotation is gonna get crowded, and he might end up doing long relief work again.

Luis Severino has been with the Yankees since 2015. I remember watching one of his first starts in a bar in Pt. Pleasant, NJ. He gave us an incredible pair of seasons in 2017 and 2018, threw out his arm and hasn't been the same since. 2023 was just another year of Sevvy trying to do what he did before and just not having it; in 19 games he had a 6.65 ERA, a 4-8 record and 79 Ks. He can still strike people out, but he's nowhere near as dominant as he was before the injuries, and he's yet another victim of young players throwing too hard too soon.

2024 Prediction: He will get Mets fans excited for exactly 5 seconds.

Clay Holmes, of all people, has become a pretty decent closing option for us. I never thought that somebody like Holmes, a career reliever who can work his way up a depth chart and hold the ninth, would take over for the line of career closers that was the Yankee 2010s. Holmes has done well for himself, and had another strong year in 2023, with a 2.86 ERA and 24 saves in 66 games.

2024 Prediction: For the last year before free agency, Holmes will have his best relief year yet, and teams will overpay for him in 2025.

Kyle Higashioka is a perfect portrait of the Yankees of the early 2020s: he was supposed to be our backup, but he's caught 242 games for us since 2021. Higgy is a perfectly acceptable catcher with some perks and some drawbacks. He wasn't great defensively this year, but he hit .236 with 10 homers and 34 RBIs, which isn't bad for a backup pressed into the starting spot.

2024 Prediction: Wouldn't it be funny if San Diego, after giving us Soto and possibly even Hader, has a Sanchez/Higgy catching platoon? I reckon Higgy will be the backup for the Padres, no matter who they get.

Carlos Rodon was supposed to be one of the biggest exclamation points of the Yankees' 2023 season. Of course, because he threw harder and more accurately than ever in 2021 and 2022, he was injured going into this year, and only made 14 starts for us this year. In that stretch, he went 3-8 with a 6.85 ERA. In a rebuilding year for the Yankees, this was a recovery year for Rodon. The hope is that he can get back to where he was next year and we didn't just pull a Carl Pavano/James Paxton again.

2024 Prediction: The 'that's more like it' season.

With Higgy starting, Trevino hurt and Rortvedt clearly not the answer, the Yankees went with a rookie for some Aug/Sept. games, that being organizational favorite Austin Wells. Like another Austin in Yankee history, Wells might be a lot of pomp for a perfectly acceptable backstop choice. In 19 games he hit .229 with 4 homers and 13 RBIs. Not a bad start, but the hope is that he builds on it.

2024 Prediction: Doesn't have the position to start the season, but definitely earns it as the season wraps up.

And then there's this guy. The Martian. The guy that every Yankee fan has been waiting for since the story broke on how insane this guy is. Jasson Dominguez made waves in Spring Training, then in Scranton, and by August he was called up to start in the Bronx. When this happened I was floored--we were already out of contention pretty much, and they weren't even gonna save Jasson for next year? Alright then. The second Dominguez took the plate, I understood. In 8 games, Dominguez hit 4 home runs, and 7 RBIs. The 20-year-old looked like a hitting machine from the very beginning, and we all got so excited. And then, of course, Dominguez gets injured and might miss the majority of 2024. Which is so indicative of this season. We get 8 games of the future and then he gets yanked away.

2024 Prediction: Will make some late appearances, and will get right back to what he was doing this year. The Soto-Judge-Dominguez OF isn't far away, guys.

And that was 2023. A wild, unpredictable year with a baseball story that thrilled me, and a lot of great players to keep me excited. I hope you enjoyed it as much as I did.

To all my readers, I wish you a happy and healthy 2024. I'm gonna, as usual, take a lot of January off. I'll be back when there's something to write about. You'll definitely see me back here around early February, there's a big milestone to celebrate. 

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: White Sox

 

For the Chicago White Sox, 2023 was where the dream ended.

The leadup to competition in 2019 was this joyous, exciting moment, where all the pieces the team had been building for years were leading to a strong team. In 2020, they made it to the playoffs thanks to a strong end to the regular season, but despite a strong postseason start from Lucas Giolito, were cut off at one series. In 2021 they won the AL Central easily and built a strong, formidable team that, despite being dwarfed by Boston and Houston, still seemed to hold promise heading into a postseason scenario; ultimately, Houston mopped the floor with them. By 2022, bad managerial decisions, injuries, aging veterans and career downturns led to the team missing the postseason, and letting centerpiece Jose Abreu leave in free agency. 

And then this year, with their stars depleted, their youth strong but scattered, and their best assets given away at the deadline, the White Sox gave up. By the end of the season, it had been made clear that the team was moving on from its administrative regime, and had hired a new GM, a new president, and new people to build the team into something worthwhile, while also keeping Pedro Grifol for a reason that is still not entirely known to me. 

If you want to know why the White Sox have fallen off, look to their marquee star from their peak, Tim Anderson. Anderson was stellar in his prime, hitting .300 every year and leading the league in batting average during the 2020 season. He was a slick, fun player that was the best summation of this team. He's ultimately become the best summation of this team at their worst, as when they're struggling, he's more ornery and his attitude shows up. Aside from his abysmal .245 average and -28 rBatting figure, in addition to awful defensive numbers, Anderson's foul mood polluted an already dampened Chicago environment, as his brawl with Jose Ramirez, the kind of guy who it's hard to truly dislike, didn't win him any favors with the modern fan.

2024 Prediction: Signs a one-year deal somewhere, like either Miami or Tampa at this rate, and rebounds while also continuing not to remind fans of his 2020-era peak.

Speaking of once-strong pieces who've fallen off, Yasmani Grandal had his second subpar season in a row for the Sox, completing his late-career collapse after a decade of hard work behind the plate. Even after hitting up a storm in 2021, Grandal was saddled with a .234 ERA this year, with 33 RBIs and 8 homers, and his defense is not what it was a decade ago. This was thankfully the last year of Grandal's contract, as the team can placate themselves with Martin Maldonado before an actual multi-dimensional organizational piece comes up.

2024 Prediction: DHs somewhere. I think his relevant numbers are over.

Yoan Moncada arrived in Chicago in exchange for Chris Sale, and was one of the biggest prospects Boston could fork over. With all of the promise that he had, Moncada has a career WAR of 14, with two great seasons under his belt and a lot of injury-prone ones following them. This year was another one where Moncada got injured and tried his best to play catchup afterwards. In 92 games, he hit .262 with 11 homers and 40 RBIs.

2024 Prediction: Will finish the last year of his contract quietly, then end up as a spare part somewhere like Washington.

While Jake Burger broke big and found a ticket out of Chicago, his fellow young utility piece Gavin Sheets was left back here, trying to establish consistency in an OF role for the Sox. Sheets hit .203 with 10 homers and 43 RBIs, which wasn't much to give the fans a ton of confidence.

2024 Prediction: Will be on the cusp of starting when an unexpected homegrown outfielder takes the position from him.

Speaking of homegrown outfielders, when word got out that Oscar Colas was starting the year up with the club, a lot of people got the same 'oh, they know what they're doing' feeling as they did when the Sox started the year with Eloy Jimenez up, or Luis Robert up. Colas is another strong outfield prospect, and it says a lot about where the Sox are now that Colas didn't succeed as much as people thought. In 75 games, split between a demotion, he hit .216 with 19 RBIs and 5 home runs.

2024 Prediction: Comes into his own a little more, though it may take either an injury or a departure for that to happen. 

And then, after surviving lymphoma and finishing his treatments, beloved White Sox closer returned to the majors and took the ninth again. He lasted 5 games, notched 1 save and 2 wins, and then was put back on the IL. He will miss the majority of 2024 in recovery from Tommy John surgery. I really wish this guy had better luck, as he's a run relief guy that you always want to do well.

2024 Prediction: Does get to pitch this year, and maybe even has some postseason appearances.

Coming Tomorrow- Some reasons why the Yankees cratered midyear.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Twins

 

The name of the game with the Minnesota Twins is depth. They may not always have the assets they were banking on, but there's enough options waiting to strike if somebody gets hurt. This year featured injuries to Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan, Jorge Polanco, Royce Lewis and Tyler Mahle, and yet the team still had enough pieces to get to the postseason and take down Toronto. Depth is going to be the deciding factor going forward in the AL Central, as it saved the Guardians' rotation and made the Tigers a second place team. In a year that may come down to who's the most prepared, the Twins may have a few legs up.

Jorge Polanco, yes, despite missing half the season, was able to accomplish a lot for the Twins. In 80 games, he hit .255 with 48 RBIs, 14 home runs and a 2.2 WAR, which is not bad at all for a 9-year veteran in a partial season. The thing about Polanco is that not only is he versatile and really skilled, but NEXT SEASON will be his age-30 season. He's done all this already since joining the Twins in 2014, and he hasn't even hit 30 year. That's so damned rare in today's age of bringing people up at 26. 

2024 Prediction: This could be the last year of Polanco's deal, though there's a chance the Twins could keep him on for 2025. I say he has another strong year while also paving the way for Edouard Julien, an equally important presence on this team.

I thought the Twins pulled a nice move in signing Christian Vazquez, as he'd been a reliable backstop and decent mid-lineup bat for the Sox and Astros. Plus, being a Sox lifer, he'd only have to go a little further down the road from usual to report for Spring Training. Vazquez's 2023 was not exactly what fans were expecting; in 102 games he only hit .223 with 6 homers and 32 RBIs, major steps down from his peak seasons. The good news is Vazquez is still an excellent defender, but this lack of offensive production led to Ryan Jeffers starting a ton more.

2024 Prediction: An improvement at the plate, but I think Jeffers might be looking at a starting gig by the end of the year.

Michael Taylor is one of those players that clearly has some flaws but does enough right that he's been employed constantly and has had excellent moments recently. The Twins signed Taylor for 2023 after two nice years in Kansas City. Taylor's defensive numbers were down in 2023, but he was doing a lot more offensively, with 13 steals, 51 RBIs and a career-best 21 home runs. 

2024 Prediction: Similar production in a smaller market. I don't know if this means he's a full-time home run guy now, but I think his defense will rebound.

The Twins have been waiting for Alex Kirilloff to happen for a while now, and every year something begins to work and then he sort of fades off again. This year was a slight improvement, as the Twins did manage to give Kirilloff some reps at 1st in between Donovan Solano's. In 88 games, Kirilloff hit .270 with 41 RBIs and 11 homers, both career marks for the 25-year-old.

2024 Prediction: I think the plan is to give him the starting gig at 1st, but I think the Twins are playing the game of 'that's riiiight, we're totally gonna start Alex Kirilloff at 1st, it would be a PITY if something were to happen to prevent us from doing so..."

Kenta Maeda handed in one excellent campaign for the Twins and then struggled to stay healthy for any more of them. This year he, at least, got 20 games, and he did alright enough, going 6-8 with a 4.23 ERA and 117 Ks. Maeda is 35, he's looking a little cooked, but he was still able to be a solid enough fifth man for a competitive Twins team, and that's what they wanted.

2024 Prediction: I don't think it will be for a full season, but the Tigers will get some peak Maeda material next year.

And then with all the outfield instability, Matt Wallner, who was looking like a fifth-string guy for a while, got some chances to prove himself with this team. In 76 games, Wallner hit .249 with 41 RBIs and 14 homers, and finished the year with a 2.2 WAR. 

2024 Prediction: I think he'll factor into the starting outfield for this team, and his star will continue to blossom.

Coming Tomorrow- The manager for this team kept his job and Buck Showalter didn't. Think about that.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Tigers

 

For a noncompetitive team, the Detroit Tigers managed to do a lot of very intriguing things throughout this season. And it starts with the fact that, despite going 78-84, the Tigers ended 2023 in second place. Over the Guardians. 

I mean...looking at this team, there's not a TON that screams second place. Good players, of course. Great performances, a no-hitter in there, and some great youth down the stretch. But this is a very mediocre team that made it to 2nd because they had the least things go wrong in the last stretch. Thanks to their reinforcements and healthy additions, the Tigers had an excellent September, which should, in theory, be a prelude to better times.

I hate to say it, though, but someone who might not be around long enough to experience the Tigers being good is Akil Baddoo. He was excellent in his rookie season in 2021, and hasn't delivered a full campaign worthy of that start yet. In 112 games, Baddoo hit .218 with 11 homers and 20 more strikeouts than hits. 

2024 Prediction: Mark Canha will ensure that Baddoo doesn't have to start as much, and he'll be better off as a bench guy.

This season marked the Tigers moving away from Eric Haase behind the plate and towards Jake Rogers, who made himself known with a strong start. Rogers actually finished the season with the 2nd-most home runs on the Tigers, which is interesting considering that Javier Baez, Austin Meadows and Jonathan Schoop were also on this team at one point. Rogers, in 107 games, hit .221 with 49 RBIs, and secured the position while Haase was dealt to Cleveland.

2024 Prediction: Rogers has maybe a year or so before the Tigers go with a homegrown, above-replacement-level choice, so he'll do well enough next year. 

In a year where the bullpen options in Detroit were better than ever [even without Jimenez and Soto], Alex Lange put on another understated but powerful season. Lange was given the all-powerful closing gig, and in 67 games had a 7-5 record, a 3.68 ERA and 26 saves. It remains to be seen whether Lange is a professional closer or just a great reliever, but what he did during this season was pretty nice.

2024 Prediction: Keeps the ninth. Breaks 30.

The Tigers' rotation was beaten up to begin the season, but then slowly people started getting activated and joining the fun. No, Casey Mize was not one of them, but his two battery-mates definitely showed up. Matt Manning got 15 games this year and got back to business, including being part of that no-hitter, and going 5-4 with a 3.58 ERA and 50 Ks. Manning just needs a full, healthy season and he'll be alright.

2024 Prediction: 30 games, 10+ wins, the undivided attention of the league.

You also had Tarik Skubal popping in midyear, having an even sharper 15 game run. Skubal went 7-3 with a 2.80 ERA and 102 Ks, a terrific stretch that brought to mind his early successes in 2020. 

2024 Prediction: A monster first half that will reassure fans that he can carry the rotation.

After coming up in Arlington and struggling to find a niche, Andy Ibañez found himself as an acceptable starting 2nd base option in Detroit, and he actually didn't do too badly for himself. In 114 games he hit .264 with 11 home runs, 41 RBIs and some nice defensive play. I do see him as a replacement guy for this period, but he's a sharp piece. 

2024 Prediction: His importance will decrease as the youth solidifies itself in this infield.

And then, while all the other pitchers were hurt, the Tigers brought up a rookie hurler named Reese Olson, and he actually was a pretty satisfying choice for a seat-filler. The 23-year-old Olson finished his rookie year with a 3.99 ERA  with 103 Ks in 17 games. With the crowded field only slightly decreasing with Eduardo Rodriguez's departure, Olson will need similar numbers to make 2024 work.

2024 Prediction: Doesn't start the season in the rotation, but has some crucial starts down the stretch.

And then there were these two rookies that showed up towards the end of the year. Parker Meadows was one. The truly upsetting thing about this season is because of his brother Austin's issues with anxiety this year, there was never a moment where both Meadows brothers suited up for the Tigers, and with Austin a free agent that's not a thing that'll happen in Detroit. Parker did manage to have a nice season, though, hitting .232 with 13 RBIs in 37 games.

2024 Prediction: The outfield spot is not his yet, but once the Tigers figure out who their new DH is, he might get some more chances to start.

And then you have another Tigers pitching prospect. One of, like, 7 or so in this roster. Sawyer Gipson-Long got 4 starts at the MLB level, and did pretty well for himself, with a 2.70 ERA and 26 Ks. Is this a season that would have happened had everyone stayed healthy? No. But it is a preview of what the Tigers could be getting more frequently soon enough.

2024 Prediction: There is, in all actuality, a chance that Gipson-Long makes the rotation out of camp. It's not 100%, as Joey Wentz and Alex Faedo still exist, and I honestly think it won't happen right away. But when it does happen, the Tigers will be happy with what they see from him.

Coming Tomorrow- The Twins won their first playoff series in 30 years, and some of these guys helped with that.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2023: Royals

 

The end of 2022 felt like the pieces were finally falling into place for the Royals. People like Michael Massey, Nate Eaton, Daniel Lynch, Vinnie Pasquantino and Brady Singer were looking like foundational pieces for the forthcoming years, and the team was looking like they'd at least be better than they were.

The Royals didn't lose 100 games, but they did this year. So uh, back to the ol' drawing board.

It is sort of interesting that the Royals are going with the 'build up the rotation with contracts' strategy for 2024, as it gives off the idea that they don't trust their homegrown talent anymore. And judging by this year, I sort of get it. Bobby Witt was good, that's for sure, but literally nobody else was as good as they were supposed to be. People like Freddy Fermin, Kyle Isbel and surprise addition Cole Ragans had to pick up the slack, and they could only do so much.

Going forward, this team needs to be far more than just 'Bobby Witt Jr.' And hopefully they can build on this and create something better going forward.

The Royals got Jordan Lyles for a similar reason that the Orioles got Lyles for 2022; they needed a veteran to build the rotation around. The thought was that Lyles would help people like Singer, Bubic and Lynch come into their own, and wouldn't be relied upon as much. Lyles made all 31 starts, and was the only starter to do so. In that time, Lyles went 6-17 with a 6.28 ERA. Meaning that two veterans in this rotation had ERAs over 5. However, Lyles did sport 3 complete games for the Royals, so that's not bad at all.

2024 Prediction: Does not lead the league in losses. In fact, improves in time for the deadline. 

Amid the may amusing rookies and second years making the Royals more interesting this year was Dairon Blanco, a 30-year-old Cuban defector who played his first full season in the majors this year. As an OF bench bat, Blanco did a lot for this team, hitting .258 with 18 RBIs and 24 steals in 69 games. Blanco is a speedy, versatile piece that could play a number of roles going forward for this team.

2024 Prediction: He will start for the first bit of the season, but I still think he's better off as a bench addition/pinch guy.

...then again, he's a lot more well-rounded than M.J. Melendez, the backup catcher who was better off in the outfield this year...and by that I mean he was better off leaving it to Perez and Fermin. Melendez is not a great defensive outfielder, and he only hit .235 with 16 homers this year. I'm beginning to think that the Royals really don't have much for this guy to do if they want to move past their current iteration.

2024 Prediction: A slight improvement but they give up on him midyear.

Nick Pratto getting called up last year was a big deal, as he was a big-time prospect that was doing some damage in the minors. In 95 games this year, Pratto hit .232 with only 7 homers and only 35 RBIs. Even if Bobby Witt  is living up to his potential, Pratto isn't there yet, and that's...concerning.

2024 Prediction: The year they'd been waiting for. 25 homers, .275 average, some actual leverage.

The other big 2022 second half rookie that was meant to make waves this year was Drew Waters, the outfield prospect that came over from Atlanta. Waters is nice defensively, but this year he hit .228 with 32 RBIs, 8 homers and 100 strikeouts. 

2024 Prediction: Steps up and cements a starting spot, but those strikeouts will still be an issue.

Coming Tomorrow- A surprisingly large amount of Detroit Tigers.