Expressly Ryan

 

For the first 19 games of the season, you could describe the Twins as 'better than anyone thought they could be'. They were 11-8, having big games against tough pitchers like Tarik Skubal and Garrett Crochet, and getting production out of a noticeably slimmer lineup. Since then, however, the Twins have only won once, and that was against the Mets right before they ended their streak. 

So what was it that allowed the Twins to propel past the Tigers and Jays in early April before struggling against the Mets and Rays in late April? No one is quite sure. Some people have theorized there's some sort of Target Field advantage that allows the team to figure out great pitchers, either a tell or a full cheating thing. We may not know about that til they make it back home tomorrow against the Mariners. Yet that doesn't explain why the Reds came to Minneapolis and swept them cleanly, and that's a team that has Andrew Abbott and Brady Singer, two easy-to-exploit starters. 

I think the main truth is that the Twins simply aren't great this year, and as things have evened out it's all been confirmed.

I root this argument back to Josh Bell. Josh Bell is a strange case, because he only seems to succeed when playing for bad teams. The second he's traded to a good team, like the 2022 Padres or the 2023 Marlins, his bat stops working. But when the pressure is off he springs into action. Last year, on a completely meaningless Nationals team, Bell became a viable power DH again, hitting 23 homers and 63 RBIs. The Twins took a gamble, and so far he's hitting .244 with 3 homers and 16 RBIs. Not immaculate, but decent production for a team without a ton of real success. It stands out more when the foundational guys, like Trevor Larnach, Matt Wallner, Luke Keaschall and Royce Lewis, simply aren't producing many runs. Someone like Austin Martin, amazingly hitting .300 with only 6 RBIs, should not be so valuable to a team's success.

At the very least, the Twins, for the time being, still have Joe Ryan, who's a very good starting option. Through 6 starts he's got a 1.021 WHIP, a 3.90 ERA and 33 Ks. He's very much at the mercy of the run support on many occasions, but he's still the staff ace and he's still a great guy to have around. It's very promising, though, that this team also has Taj Bradley, Bailey Ober, Mick Abel and, if his first start is anything to go by, Connor Prielipp, to rest on if anything were to happen around, say, July. Bradley in particular is looking better than he ever has on a mound. Who knew there'd be someone that wouldn't succeed until AFTER they left Tampa. Besides Joe Ryan of course.

The Twins now at least still strive to outdo expectations, and I think, if April is anything to go by, they're still capable of big games. I just don't think it's the norm for this team. I don't really think they have it in them.

Coming Tomorrow- There's a lot of teams that don't have anybody left from 2022, let alone 2018, but this guy has been on the Cubs since before they crumpled-and-tossed. And now he's helping them compete again. Gotta feel amazing for the guy.

Sandy & The Hourglass

 

The Marlins are in second place. Are they in second place because they are honestly kinda good, or are they in second place because their competition is the Nationals, who aren't great, and the Phils and Mets, who had awful losing streaks? It's too soon to say. But it has to help that Sandy Alcantara's finally pitching like his old self again.

The Sandy Alcantara era in Miami has been a strange one, because when they had absolutely nothing they still had him, and then once they were able to build a team and compete, Sandy, well...he got hurt, missed a season and spent 2025 not being too great. And now for 2026 they have a lot more cemented. Xavier Edwards and Otto Lopez make a great DP combo. Kyle Stowers just returned to aid Owen Caissie and Jakob Marsee in the outfield. Liam Hicks is having the contact season of his life. And the bullpen has finally locked in consistently. 

But now...this growing, improving Marlins team has a great Sandy Alcantara performance behind it. Through 5 starts, he's got a 2.80 ERA, 23 Ks, a 1.019 WHIP and a complete game shutout under his belt. This is the guy who won the Cy Young a few years ago. There was a worry that the big season cooked his arm, but that doesn't seem to be the case. He's still dominant, he's still trustworthy, and he can still lead this rotation forward. And just to be clear, he's not exactly doing all the work either. Max Meyer's off to a pretty nice start, and has 28 strikeouts already. Janson Junk and Eury Perez have had some pretty nice starts. I figure Braxton Garrett will be back eventually, there's still room for outside voices, but what they have at the moment is working despite the lack of real exclamation points.

I think what's most relieving about this Marlins team is that the parlance 'well, it won't be pretty' doesn't apply to this team as much as it did to past iterations. There is much better hitting on this team, and more of the contact variety. 5 years ago it was easy to get like 6 guys who hit homers and then only hit .220 and be alright with it, but now that Edwards, Stowers, Hicks, Sanoja and Lopez can just hit for other reasons than just hitting home runs, it gives more of an idea of what the team can accomplish. Last year the Blue Jays contact-hit their way to a World Series, and the Guardians' contact game gets them to the playoffs frequently. The Marlins have enough varied hitting energy to get them far. And if all else fails, they have Deyvison de los Santos, who could probably hit 30 home runs if they can keep him in the majors. 

I feel good about this Marlins team. Granted, if the bottom two disappointments can really turn things around, they'll need to shift into a different gear, so hopefully there's a higher ceiling than usual for the Marlins.

Coming Tomorrow- I still can't believe that this is like the one guy the Rays couldn't wait til he blossomed to trade. They just did it immediately. And now he's one of two ex-Rays leading the Twins rotation.

Bigger, Badder and More Canadian

 

It's the kind of prophecy that feels like it's out of a movie, but imagine being in Montreal in 2003, around when it became clear that Vladimir Guerrero was leading the Expos in free agency. Cause it would feel like all the hope was going away with the loss of one guy. Imagine if you had the knowledge to go 'don't worry...there will be another Vladimir Guerrero in 15 years, and he'll be just as good as the previous one, and what's more...he'll get to spend even more of his career in Canada. Cause that's where he was born'.

It sounds ridiculous, but somehow Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has guaranteed, even just 8 seasons into his career, that even as legendary as his father was in all his years in the league...he will be the most Canadian Vladimir Guerrero to ever play. Canada by way of the DR. It just gets more Arthurian the more you think about it. Born in Montreal, plays in Toronto, gets 'em to their first World Series since before he was born, and signs a contract ensuring he'll stay in Canada for years to come. All that remains is for him to play well, and that's what he's been doing.

Through 8 seasons, Vlad Jr. has 185 home runs [15 away from 200, and that's certainly doable], 603 RBIs, 1107 hits, a career .290 average and 26.8 WAR. By 27, that's a strong resume, even without adding the 5 straight all-star appearances and the 8 homers in one postseason. The expectations were huge for Guerrero, and he's definitely risen to them. I think in 2023 there was a moment where we all kinda rethought things for a second, as he was only hitting .260 and not getting 30 homers, but then he replied with 2 straight top-tier seasons and that postseason campaign. Right now he's hitting .337 with 12 RBIs and 30 hits, proving that the emphasis doesn't have to be on power all the time. Guerrero's just turned into a truly tremendous hitter, and an excellent centerpiece player who, even without Bo Bichette, can still command a lineup. 

The Jays themselves, meanwhile, are under .500 and doing their best to bounce back. The full team effort from 2025 seems to have subsided slightly, as the lineup's a bit more piecemeal. Losing Kirk and Springer hurts, and not even a surprise bench turn from Eloy Jimenez and the latent production of Kazuma Omamoto have patched things tremendously. It's just a comparatively less exciting lineup, and that returns the Jays to being a slightly above average team in a division where you need to be overwhelmingly great to survive. The Rays and Orioles are head of the Jays in the division in a year where the Jays felt like a shoo-in for at least 2nd. The pitching is only marginally better, as the 'break in case of emergency' starters, Eric Lauer and Patrick Corbin, are already several starts into the season, Scherzer's looking really cooked and Jeff Hoffman forgot how to save games.

Of course this team can turn things around, as they've done it before. But it just seems like even more of an uphill battle than last year. In 2025, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. felt like one of many prime, pivotal hitters, and now it feels like more is on his shoulders again. Hopefully the rest begin to step up soon.

Coming Tomorrow- He was elite, he got hurt, he struggled...and now he appears to be back.  

Un-X-pected

 

A Padres team desperate for starting pitching, where Fernando Tatis has 0 home runs and Xander Bogaerts has 3, has won 17 games, with 9 of those wins being saved by Mason Miller, who has yet to allow a run. I knew these post-Seidler teams were gonna be weird, but this is wild, guys.

I always expected these Padres teams to come down to Tatis and Machado, and so far neither has been much of a factor. Tatis is technically hitting, and stealing bases, but the power numbers are way down. Machado's hitting .188, and the fear is that the peak years may have subsided. Jackson Merrill is doing *alright*, but he's not 2024 good yet. And so...having Xander Bogaerts around to ace the contact game again is a very good thing. He's looked a bit aimless the last couple years, but now he's back to leading the team in hits and returning to his old power perks. It's a little weird that a team the Padres now needs guys like Ramon Laureano and Miguel Andujar to do a lot of the run production work, but Bogie running things was always a hope when they signed him, and though he's not completely in world-beating mode like he was in Boston, he's still feeling more like himself than he has in a while.

And that's the ultimate feeling. There's a definite spark that is lifting this team over the competition, and it's led to a start that's put them, at long last, at the top of the division with the Dodgers. Now, last year, if you'll recall, the Padres had so many opportunities to gain a cushion against LA but simply could not, due to constantly losing their divisional matchups together. This year, even if there's still some weak spots in the lineup, they've gained enough momentum early to match up to the Dodgers. It's an unassuming Padres team to do this with, but it's appreciated.

Once again, I do worry about the thin rotation aspect. Musgrove isn't back for a couple more weeks, Pivetta's probably mid-May, Canning's second half. They just went and got Lucas Giolito, like they should have two months ago, and Walker Buehler and German Marquez are beginning to wear out their welcomes. Right now it's just Randy Vasquez and Michael King looking halfway decent up there, and while it may be enough for now, there's gonna be a point in the season where you need 5 strong options. I don't care how good your bullpen is, you can't go on 2 sure things and a prayer. It's kind of the exact opposite of the Dodgers' playoff strategy last year, giving all the relief opportunities to starters and hoping the actual relievers don't need to go in.

I still think the Padres can surprise people this year, and if people like Machado, Merrill and Tatis really take off, the Dodgers could have some serious trouble on their hands this year. 

Coming Tonight: I think there was a moment a few years ago where I was beginning to think the hype around this guy could be overblown. I don't anymore. 

Excessive Gore

 

To be at .500 and in 2nd, and ahead of your two greatest competitors in the standings, has to feel weird. Like you're there, you're accomplishing your goal...but is it earned? Are you beating yourself as much as you're beating them? The Rangers are looking decent right now, but is it because they've gotten off to a less rough start than Seattle or Houston, or are they actually on the precipice of something?

The issue of this team, since having to follow up the championship season, has been the inability for the young, homegrown core to actually inherit the team, still relying on contracted veterans like Corey Seager, Jacob deGrom and now Brandon Nimmo to do the heavy lifting. Wyatt Langford, Josh Jung and Evan Carter have flirted with greatness but injuries have prevented its consistency. Langford is once again hurt, right as he gets going. The good news is that Carter looks good, hitting a homer as I write this and letting his multi-tool ability distract from his comparatively pedestrian average. Jung's hitting .300, that's a nice start. Even Kumar Rocker's beginning to grow accustomed to MLB hitting, and has his ERA below 4. Beyond that, though, this is still a hodgepodge of acquired guns rather than a full youth movement. Which does explain why the team's development has sputtered a bit.

I do credit the Rangers for bringing on MacKenzie Gore, who's still young enough to be on the ground floor of something here. Gore is known for his high-K, high-velocity mentality, which also occasionally leads to a higher ERA. Sure enough, Gore has 35 Ks, a 1.192 WHIP...and a 4.15 ERA. Everything they figured would happen is happening. Still fits into this rotation pretty well though. I don't think Gore is gonna be the full package that the Padres were figuring when they drafted him, but he's still a handy flamethrower to have around. And then you have Jacob deGrom, still very much a viable ace, who's got a 2.29 ERA in 4 starts. I worry a bit about Evo and Leiter, but the season's young. 

Regardless, even if it's not pretty or sustainable, the runs are getting produced. Jake Burger's still an RBI machine, Seager's still the fearless captain of yore, Nimmo's having a comeback year, and Langford and Carter look confident and versatile. The team average is low, and there's a bunch of people still not hitting, but games are getting won. I think any sense of a gameplan went out the window when Bochy left, and now the Skip Schumacher approach just involves winning with what they've got by any means necessary. 

And if that works better than Bochy-ball did...it just proves that you can't really predict anything.

Coming Tomorrow- It's possible he may never live up to his Red Sox numbers, but he's still doing whatever he can to keep his team in the conversation.

The Thrill of the Chase

 

So, we find the Reds rotation in its current incarnation, with Hunter Greene and Nick Lodolo injured, Andrew Abbott not injured but looking really rough, Brandon Williamson and Rhett Lowder not injured and doing well, Chase Burns looking even better than he did as a call-up last year, and Brady Singer...just waiting til someone notices he's still here. It's not what everyone expected it to look like, but it seems to be working.

The fundamental issue with these Reds rotations is always going to be that because the four main arms throw as hard as they do, it's very unlikely for them all to be healthy together for a consistent period. It's what doomed the 2010s Mets, and it would have doomed the 2025 Dodgers had they not been unstoppable. I would love to see a version of this team that had Greene, Lodolo, Lowder and Burns all together, healthy and good, but the throwing regimens demand that we only get them for a certain amount of time before they need to sit for a couple months. 

Regardless, the version we've got now seems fine. Chase Burns is the current standout, he's 2-1 with 30 Ks in his first 5 starts, looking very MLB ready. Rhett Lowder's pretty good too, he's the most dominant guy they have, even if he hasn't struck as many guys out as Burns. Williamson looks decent, he's probably a better bet for consistency than the other two, though Abbott may just be having a rough April. And luckily the Reds' bullpen is the best it's been in years, with Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, Pierce Johnson, Sam Moll, Connor Phillips and Brock Burke all in excellent shape. A shame about Emilio Pagan's blown saves, though...he has a tendency to do that. 

And then to back them up you have Sal Stewart and Elly de la Cruz off to terrific starts, both with 8 homers, and Sal with 24 RBIs already. Elly excelling is no surprise, and he may finally be chasing that MVP, but Stewart is not only MLB ready, he's already one of the most intimidating sluggers in the game. Already a slam dunk at first base. The sad detail is that it's really only them who are hitting right now. Lot of guys flirting with .200 or looking for their first homer or trying to match up. Steer, Friedl, Stephenson and McLain represent the backbone of this team and they're all giving absolutely nothing. Suarez is trying but he's only hit 3 homers so far. 

I sincerely hope the Reds can capitalize more on this great pitching year by bringing forth a full lineup effort, because right now it's just 2 guys doing all the work, and that's not sustainable. You can't waste great seasons by Chase Burns and Rhett Lowder, cause who knows how long it'll be until their arms let them have other ones.

Coming Tonight: He got out of Washington right when his new team was about to shock the division.

Mize on the Prize

 

I still think Tarik Skubal essentially taking the pressure off of Casey Mize was the best thing to happen to Mize. Gets picked overall, has 1 good season, gets hurt then struggles to cope with not being the center of everything. And luckily at that point the Tigers have Skubal playing amazingly and he can just...have a nice enough season without the added expectations. It's worked out for all involved parties.

Mize is 29, and has really only had 2 full seasons in the MLB, which is the kind of thing that happens when your development is held up by a pandemic and then injury concerns. Last year was the fullest view of Mize post-TJ, and it earned him an All-Star nod and a surer place in this rotation. As it stands now, he still doesn't have as much to carry as Skubal, or even late-game dominator Framber Valdez, but he's been very nice through his first 4 starts, with a 2.78 ERA, 25 Ks and a 0.8 WAR. Even if he's clearly a #4 guy in this rotation [for now, Jack], he's more sure of himself than he's ever been and he's continuing his 2025 success with similar consistency. 

It's very funny how a lot of this team goes along the idea of 'despite what you might think, the #1 overall guy isn't gonna save the world for this team'. Spencer Torkelson, despite a decent 2025, is back to flirting with the Mendoza line. Still hasn't hit a homer this year. Riley Greene, while not a #1 overall pick, was a highly regarded organizational piece for a while, and though the hope was for him to be a starring man, he's...kinda doing his own thing? He's hitting .265 with 14 RBIs and just 1 homer. It's a very pedestrian year from him so far. Hopefully it heats up at some point. 

What I'm saying is that, because some of the draft picks have sputtered, the Tigers' success has been left to a lot of other guys, and...that may explain why the team hasn't exactly taken off yet this year. Dillon Dingler's having another strong year, with 5 homers and 18 RBIs, but I don't think it's a Cal Raleigh situation where he can become a marquee guy. Gleyber Torres is hitting, but he's below his 2025 standard. At least Kevin McGonigle's still hitting .300 and filling all boxes, but a rookie shouldn't be leading a competitive team in WAR. It doesn't feel like much of a group effort right now, despite the much better pitching picture. 

The Tigers are at .500 right now, and trying to gauge how much it'll take to overtake Minnesota. I still think they're a competitive team, and have a chance at the division title, but this is an inauspicious start for a team that was firing on all cylinders at this point last year. Hopefully something clicks soon enough, as they were working on a streak last week before they had to play Milwaukee. 

Coming Tomorrow- Young, throws smoke, and is getting an opportunity to start for the Reds because...the other young guys that throw smoke keep getting injured for some reason.

Elder Buried

 

I dunno if I'm ever gonna be able to figure out Bryce Elder. Cause either he's a dominant, forceful fly-ball pitcher with a low K rating, or he can't keep runs down to save his life. There's something very classic about Elder, he just stays up there and stays in long enough to get the job done, no real 100mph stuff. Sometimes that results in an ASG appearance and a low ERA, and sometimes that results in everybody killing him at the plate and nobody taking him seriously. I suppose it's connected to how viable the Braves' offense is, cause Elder was great when the Braves were good, and last year when the Braves struggled he was subpar. 

So anyway, the Braves are good again and Bryce Elder has a 0.77 ERA through 4 starts. I dunno if it's gonna make sense, I just know that it's a good thing.

The Braves' rotation has this 'handle with care' quality to it, because it hinges on four guys who throw hard and get injured more often than not. If Chris Sale, Spencer Strider, Spencer Schwellenbach and Hurston Waldrep didn't overthrow and run the risk of missing time, they'd be able to accomplish more and potentially win more titles. But this is the life they've chosen. So the Braves now have to stack the pitching staff with supplanting options that don't overthrow. Reynaldo Lopez is one of them, and after a lost 2025 he's back in full force, with a 2.18 ERA in 4 starts. Grant Holmes has been very reliable, and durable, in a swing role, and so far while his ERA is closer to 4 than he'd like, he's still a valid innings eater. Even 35-year-old Martin Perez has joined in on the fun, with 4 games of pure dominance and a 2.21 ERA despite only 10 strikeouts. 

If the team has the leverage and the pitcher can stay on, control guys like Elder and Holmes can still be valuable pieces. It's actually a very efficient strategy, one that I'm really interested to see morph once some more starting options return. Strider and Waldrep should be back soon, and they're gonna want to get Didier Fuentes more starts at some point [unless they mean to dangle him for an upgrade]. 

That level of pitching depth combined with a ferocious lineup has made the Braves a definite standout so far. Nobody wants to go up against a team where Drake Baldwin, Matt Olson, Ozzie Albies, Michael Harris and Dominic Smith are not only hitting but surging. Dominic Smith has gone from a handy fill-in in SF to a genuine DH standout, with 4 homers and 16 RBIs in 17 games. Baldwin's a power hitter who's also hitting .304 right now, he's everything you want. Mauricio Dubon might just be the guy going forward at short, with apologies to Ha-Seong Kim. Only guy that isn't really hitting is Yaz, but it's early.

Now that the Braves have sufficiently embarrassed the Phillies, they now get to play Washington for four games and arrive home in time for the Phillies to have hopefully remembered how to play baseball. It's looking extremely good for the start of the Walt Weiss regime in Atlanta, and I reckon it's about to get even better. Cause Acuña's barely even woken up yet.

Coming Tomorrow- He was drafted 1st overall, and was thought to be the first piece of a legendary youth movement. It didn't work out 100% as planned, but he's still a very important piece of their next act.

Rice to See You

 

After a really embarrassing stretch, where the A's, Rays and Angels took some really winnable games away from us, the Yankees finally rebounded, with a commanding sweep of...a team that's supposed to be better than any of those three.

...we can't touch Aaron Civale but we torch Cole Ragans? What a team. Anyway,

The immediate takeaway is that, as vital as Aaron Judge has been to this team, Ben Rice might quickly be becoming just as vital. Judge has 9 homers right now, and Rice just hit his 8th. Rice currently leads the Yankees in RBIs with 18 and average with .338, and doing this while, just weeks ago, Aaron Boone still wasn't convinced Rice was an everyday player, is a big statement. Rice should be in the lineup everyday, cause when he is he does things like that. He's hit home runs in four straight games. That is pretty special. And that is everyday player material. 

I've been eyeing Boone's judgment a lot this year, especially given that Randal Grichuk began the year with the team, going 2-for-20, while Jasson Dominguez and Spencer Jones are still stuck in the minors. Some guys who aren't hitting can't really be helped, like Austin Wells, and some know their days are kinda numbered, like Ryan McMahon, but Grichuk can't be wasting a roster space when there's genuine young talent that could be helping the team. I get it, contract control, whatever, but we want to win games and we can't if we keep starting a guy that can't hit. That's why the 'well Goldy should start here instead of Rice' made no sense even BEFORE Rice went on the homer tear. Seniority doesn't mean shit if you're cold as hell. 

Through all of the lineup tumult, and there's been lots, the rotation hasn't been much of an issue. Fried-Schlittler-Warren is a solid punch, Weathers had a great start yesterday, and Gil...Gil at least isn't Taijuan Walker bad. It's the bullpen guys that have been acting up, especially Bednar and Doval. Even Angel Chivilli struggled a bit keeping the Royals at bay to end yesterday's game. At least Tim Hill's still Tim Hill. Dunno what we'd do without him. 

This is a flawed Yankees team, but we can hit, and we can hold down runs. Bellinger's still a success in New York, Stanton's bat is still a valuable asset, and Jose Caballero can still steal bases. The Sox are up next, and the Astros follow, and with a worse team, and better Sox and Astros teams, I'd be more worried. But this Royals series quieted my anxieties slightly. Maybe we'll gain some momentum and stay strong against two noted rivals. If Rice can stay hot, anything's possible.

Coming Tonight: A guy that keeps his ERA low by having a terrific team behind him and not overexerting himself. So it's odd seeing him next to Chris Sale and Spencer Strider.

Empty Pages

 

Hey...guess who has the best record in baseball? No, really, guess. You'll never get it.

Despite being upset by the Rockies twice this weekend [more proof that the Rox are quietly improving], the Dodgers are still 15-6, and surging in all the places people thought they would. Shohei Ohtani's on-base streak is still active? Of course it is. Freddie Freeman's still an elite 1B option even after 35? Of course he is. Yoshinobu Yamamoto's still one of the best starters in the game? You know it. 

Though shockingly, the team's current WAR leader is not Shohei Ohtani, nor Freeman or Yamamoto, but one Andy Pages. Pages had a strong first few months to the 2025 season before balancing out a bit, but his April's been outrageous, with a 1.083 OPS, a .389 average, 28 hits and 21 RBIs, all league highs. Pages also has 5 homers, tied for second place with Ohtani and...Dalton Rushing?? Is that right? The Dodgers' backup catcher can rake like hell? Damn, that's pretty helpful in case something happens to Will Smith. But yeah, Pages has led the charge, and unlike some contemporaries [James Outman mostly], he's proven to have MLB staying power and has become more multifaceted than before. Gotta love that this team can still find new heroes even in a lineup with 3 MVPs in it. 

You're also seeing some of the guys who had slower starts begin to find themselves. Kyle Tucker's slowly heating up, he has 3 homers and 13 RBIs now. It's not as immediate as his Chicago success was but he's still pretty damn good. Ohtani only has 10 RBIs but he's also like their best starter so I think the Dodgers can let it slide. Glasgow's 2-0 with a team-leading 29 Ks and a 3.24 ERA, so he's getting his stuff under control. Jack Dreyer and Tanner Scott have gotten their ERAs back down, and Edwin Diaz is trying to. Even Justin Wrobleski can hang on for a truly dominant start in a rotation that happened to have an open space, and now he's sticking around. I do think once Snell and Knack come back he'll be back to long relief, but this will at least make him look desirable to the other 29 teams.

Even without Mookie Betts and Blake Snell, this is still a good Dodgers team because it's gained depth naturally vs. out of injury necessity. Justin Wrobleski feels like a genuine starting option and not a failsafe. There are no stunts to avoid bullpen depth. The bench guys are valuable MLB options. The system doesn't feel like it's being gamed...yet. Though...if nobody can stop this team then we really do deserve a lockout. Cause they're good, but they're not immaculate. No team is immaculate. So hopefully a successor can take them out. And seeing as the Padres are only a half game behind them now after doing some serious streaking, maybe it'll come sooner than we think.

Coming Tomorrow- Aaron Judge has 9 home runs, but this guy has 8. And he's no slouch either.

Falling Backwards

 

The AL West is kinda weird right now. The Mariners and Astros are in last, and the Angels and Rangers are fighting for first. It may be only April, but it's at least giving the Mariners an opportunity to work their way up.

It's very clear what's plaguing the Mariners right now. Cal Raleigh, Julio Rodriguez, Josh Naylor and J.P. Crawford just aren't playing well. And that's the majority of the core from last year, not to mention Polanco and Suarez are gone. So already, if a lot of guys are muted, that doesn't match up, immediately. To have three crucial hitters batting under .200, not even including Rob Refsnyder who's yet to even register a hit, makes it much harder for other teams to take you seriously. Cal Raleigh conquered the world last year and now he's a .163 hitter, despite 11 RBIs. Either teams have figured him out or it's just a rough start.

It is therefore helpful that, at least, somebody is providing stable hitting in Seattle. And it's Randy Arozarena, already pretty beloved there after a year and a half. Arozarena's just a good guy to have around, can do all sorts of things and can go on a tear when you need him to. So far he's hitting .284 with 21 hits, 7 RBIs and 5 stolen bases. All sorts of fun contact work, plus the occasional homer. In fact the contact guys, like Cole Young, Brendan Donovan and Dominic Canzone, have been off to the best starts. And Luke Raley's power numbers don't hurt either. There are definitely pieces of this Mariners lineup that do work, but until the larger half do their part it's just gonna keep looking this awkward and scattered.

At the very least the pitching hasn't been much of an issue so far. Emerson Hancock, Bryan Woo and George Kirby all look great. Hancock seems to finally have recovered from a few injury-plagued years, and he's 2-1 with a 2.28 ERA. Logan Gilbert doesn't look TOO terrible, but he's still 1-3 with a 4+ ERA, s hopefully the reps bring that down. Luis Castillo might be cooked after a few excellent, consistent seasons in a row. I'm not sure who the 'break in case of emergency' starter is. Cooper Criswell maybe? Bryce Miller's out for a bit longer, I dunno if it'll sync up perfectly. Bullpen looks pretty good too, barring some struggles from Andres Munoz.

Look...there is a good team in here, it's just that not all of it has hatched yet. I imagine Julio Rodriguez and Cal Raleigh will start hitting soon, and things will flip around. The team's so well-designed that even if it doesn't happen all the way, good things will still happen. There's depth, there's failsafes. Last night they looked really good. I think they'll be alright eventually. 

Coming Tonight: I remember hearing about this guy as a prospect and thinking that, seeing as the Dodgers hadn't traded him yet, they clearly knew something cool was gonna happen. And I was right. 

Cold as Brice

 

If you were wondering what a Brewers team without Jackson Chourio, Quinn Priester, Andrew Vaughn or Christian Yelich looks like, and how it stands a chance without those pieces, well...Pat Murphy could manage his way out of a tornado if he was given the opportunity. This is a team where Brandon Lockridge or Brandon Sproat can be the hero. Anything's possible, even without Yelich. That was always the fear, when Yelich became the MVP guy, it was always a worry of 'what is this team without him'. And without him, the Brewers still have Brice Turang.

Brice Turang is one of those players who can do just about anything. Hit for average, hit home runs, steal bases, play great 2nd base, get on base, lead the team. Between Chourio, Turang and Contreras, the Brewers have a lot of those multifaceted guys. But Turang right now is the most crucial, because he's hitting, leading the team in WAR, and leading the team in OPS. Turang has quietly become one of the most crucial players in baseball since breaking out in 2024, and as a former high-tier prospect in this organization, it's very affirming. That's what's great about the Brewers, their top prospects pay off. Jackson Chourio, Jacob Misiorowski, Logan Henderson, Brice Turang, and now Coleman Crow have all delivered on the promises the scouts have made. So with Jesus Made and Cooper Pratt on the way, and possibly Jeferson Quero if they can manage to keep him up for more than 5 seconds, it's very reassuring. The last true 'sure thing' to dive-bomb out of Milwaukee was Keston Hiura. 

The Brewers' ability to grow around injuries has served them well this season. Jake Bauers has been covering 1st, and he's been doing pretty well, leading the team in homers with 5. Joey Ortiz is doing his best to avoid being replaced by Jett Williams or Jesus Made, and so far it's working, with 4 steals already. Brandon Lockridge is aware he's just a placeholder for Jackson Chourio but he still had a nice day at the plate today. And Kyle Harrison, Brandon Sproat and Coleman Crow have all capitalized on a freer rotation. It's a shame Logan Henderson couldn't run on that opportunity, but Crow seems ready, and Harrison and Sproat are more than willing to let their former teams regret trading them.

Truth be told, the Brewers' season this far has been pretty sporadic. A hugely successful stretch to start, then six straight losses, and now 4 straight wins. I think they've got enough leverage to ram back into the lead, and this is even before Chourio comes back. 

Coming Tomorrow- It is so refreshing to not have to play this guy like 16 times a year anymore. I already dug him fundamentally but now that he plays for a team I enjoy I think it's safe to say I do really like this guy. Anyway he's been hitting well.  

Messick I've Made

 

I caught about five seconds of the near-no-no Parker Messick was attempting last night. I turned it on in the ninth, saw the O's keep Cleveland down, and then Messick got up and immediately gave up a hit. Which is the effect I have on most no-hitters. 

The thing is, hearing Parker Messick's hitless through eight isn't exactly a 'WHAT??' sort of news piece. Messick's been brilliant since the Guardians brought him up last year, and he's already 3-0 with a 1.05 ERA in 4 starts. Messick isn't too flashy, he's just a stocky guy who out leverages hitters and keeps runs down. That was Tanner Bibee for a bit, but now he's struggling to keep runs down. Messick is closer to the old school pitching mentality, and for someone like him to be succeeding in Cleveland alongside Gavin Williams, one of your standard high-speed/high-K pitchers of the 2020s, that once again proves how versatile the Guardians are. The age of the Guards' rotation being a murderers row is mostly done, but having useful, sturdy guys like Joey Cantillo and Slade Cecconi following in still does the trick. Messick is very close to ace material, which is wild when Williams and his 29 Ks are right there, but he just seems like the guy this pitching staff can congregate around.

Now, while the rotation has improved from last year, there's still some bullpen arms that are stuck in 2025. Cade Smith is a fundamentally strong closer that still keeps giving up runs and hits even before he gets the save. Smith made the 9th tougher than it should have been last night, and it's a lot like what he was doing last year. The good part is the bullpen still has enough reliable, homegrown options like Erik Sabrowski, Tim Herrin and Hunter Gaddis that the cumulative bloodshed is still low. This why the Guardians build their teams like they do, so there's always a pool of guys they can trust. 

All that said, the pitching has been leading the way for this Guardians team so far. Not that the hitting isn't good, it's just still a bit unrefined. Obviously Jose Ramirez works, obviously Steven Kwan works, and now it's clear that Chase De Lauter works. Beyond that it's a lot of guys who ebb and flow. I guess Brayan Rocchio's good again, he's playing elite shortstop alongside Daniel Schneemann, making waves at 2nd. Angel Martinez seems to have a handle on left field finally, that's good. Beyond that, Kyle Manzardo's backpedaled tremendously, Juan Brito's not ready yet, Austin Hedges is hitting better than Bo Naylor [which...lol], and David Fry still isn't at 100%. This is a scattered offense, and while occasionally good things happen, there's less depth than you would think. 

But...in a tumultuous AL Central, the Guardians have been one of the sole constants thus far. Even if the Twins are currently leading, one does not expect them to continue at that pace the rest of the season. The Tigers have stalled and then raced forward, the Royals have struggled and then soared. Nobody's really walking in a straight line...except, comparatively, for Cleveland, who even on their worst days still can turn around and have a strong game. I think they'll earn it over time, but the Guardians are currently the team to beat in this division, and having Parker Messick as an ace certainly doesn't hurt.

Coming Tomorrow- A rare kind of player who can do just about anything. Brewers are lucky to have him. 

Wood Work

 

I've been writing this blog, and following baseball, for over a decade. I've seen a lot of bad teams that, for all intents and purposes, could be lost to history without anyone noticing. Aside from the last two seasons of all-time ineptitude, I've seen versions of the Pirates, Orioles, Marlins, Rays and Astros that completely refused to be anywhere close to good, and trudged along out of their own necessity. 

But something to be aware of is that it's very hard for a bad team to still have nobody I collect on it. The 2000s Orioles still had Brian Roberts. The early 2010s Astros still had Hunter Pence. I think about the stretch from 1994 til like 2005, where the Brewers had virtually no one I would ever think of seriously collecting playing for them. Aside from that one year of Hideo Nomo and the beginning of Nelson Cruz, it's a wasteland of replacement level guys and 'that guy's. At one point, Milwaukee seriously subsisted off of a core of Jeromy Burnitz, Geoff Jenkins, Jeff Cirillo, Jose Valentin, Fernando Vina and Dave Nilsson. Really.

So what I'm saying is that the 2026 Nationals...likely will be a bad team. They're not looking terrific, not gonna lie. They won yesterday against the Pirates in a squeaker, and even then most people are chalking that up to Don Kelly's mismanaging rather than anything the Nats actually did. Even though they currently lead the Mets in the standings, and are arguably playing better than the Phillies right now, they are not exactly expected to compete, and the general idea is that they'll likely sell at the deadline. But...even if they are a bad team, they still have James Wood and C.J. Abrams, and both are terrific. 

The Nationals have taken on several prospects from other teams, Abrams chief among them, with the intent on starting a new dynasty. Some have already moved on; Lane Thomas is now with Kansas City and MacKenzie Gore is now with Texas. The majority are still impacting the direction of this team. Even though Wood and Abrams came over in the same deal, they're still the marquee guys for this Nats team. Abrams is off to a scorching start, hitting .367 with 19 RBIs and 6 homers, plus a crazy 1.175 OPS. It is very possible that the Nats could trade Abrams at the deadline, and the lack of any 1st place prospects have sort of cemented that.

Which leaves James Wood, who I do not think is in danger of being traded anytime soon. And the Nationals are all the better for it. Wood is 23, reaching his prime, and still hitting great power numbers, with 5 homers and 14 RBIs already. Dude's a born power hitter, and though the high K rate is still scary, his production can't be denied. The hope is he can stay in Washington for a bit and help the team develop. You're already seeing Brady House, Foster Griffin, Daylen Lile, Nasim Nunez and Clayton Beeter becoming everyday options, and it's better than the carousel of replacement guys we've seen over the last few years.

The Nats at least have control over how much they can accomplish even in the midst of a seemingly lost year like this one. If James Wood, C.J. Abrams, Cade Cavalli and Jacob Young can deliver on great seasons, that'll at least be a step in the right direction. 

Coming Tonight: He just took a no-hitter into the eighth right around the point where Cleveland fans really started tiring of the old ace.

Wilyer Or Won't You

 

I don't think anybody could have predicted just how rough the Red Sox's start would be. I don't think many people were thinking they'd be a 1st place finisher, but the idea was that these guys could chase the division and contend with some of the bigger guns on account of their lineup core and well-stocked rotation, but...yeah if anybody came into this season thinking this would be an outright last place team, I doubt it'd gain too much traction. 

Let's see, what's failed already for this team. Okay, so Ranger Suarez in Fenway has gone essentially as badly as one might expect, he's struggled to find his footing already. Johan Oviedo made one appearance and is now out for a few months, meaning they gave up The Password, still chilling in Indianapolis, for nothing. Caleb Durbin's been an absolute train wreck at third, hitting .126, meaning they could have avoided this by signing Bregman. Marcelo Mayer still can't hit at the MLB level, and without David Hamilton's security, and with Romy Gonzales and Triston Casas hurt, the infield's looking dire. Jarren Duran still isn't hitting, and has now resorted to flipping off fans. Brayan Bello's having another disappointing year after so much promise. And now, after a rough start in Minneapolis, Garrett Crochet has a 7.58 ERA, which he will spend the rest of the season trying to get down despite the ability to slow down any team, which he still has.

That's a LOT that isn't working. And that doesn't even include the fact that they have no pieces left from the Rafael Devers deal, and one of them, Kyle Harrison, was redeeming himself in Milwaukee til the injury. Too many flighty decisions are coming back to haunt this Sox team early, and it's begun to piss off the fanbase. And if there's one thing you do not want to do, it's piss off New Englanders. They took the Pats thing fairly well, but this Sox thing is happening on top of the potential of both an early Celtics exit and a rough seeding against the Sabres. If anything else bad happens, the Boston fans are gonna start storming the field and fighting Trevor Story.

It's not that there aren't highlights, but they feel hidden. Wilyer Abreu's off to a phenomenal start, hitting .333 with 10 RBIs and 3 homers. He leads the league in WAR with 1.4, which is pretty nice. Roman Anthony and Willson Contreras have already been pretty productive in terms of power numbers, and are looking to keep the top of the lineup looking that scary. Connelly Early has been providing a shocking bit of consistency amid a rotation that should be pitching better, as he's the only one of the 5 with an ERA lower than 3. And Aroldis Chapman seems to love Boston, and still has a very low ERA. Not sure why a guy who has a history of hitting things would enjoy Boston so much but there you go.

The Sox don't just look bad right now, they look dire. As dire as a team with that much money put into it can look. There's always a chance to turn things around, but this really isn't a great start.

Coming Tomorrow- Since Soto left, the Nationals have been looking for a piece that could be described as 'foundational'. I think they found one.

Fill a Buster

 

You'd think that adding Rafael Devers, Willy Adames, Harrison Bader and Luis Arraez to a Giants team like this would amount to a beefed-up lineup, right? That's kind of the idea when you get those guys. Instead, we have a team that's only scored 6 or more runs in 4 of their first 14 games. A lot of games of milling around, scoring maybe a run, or just getting blanked. Devers is hitting .212, Bader's hitting 115, Heliot Ramos is hitting .226, and only Willy Adames has hit more than 2 home runs. 

Kind of an odd way of going about it, but Buster seems to know what he's doing.

And that's just been the refrain ever since Buster Posey took over the head office. 'Well, he knows what he's doing'. His leadership brought 3 rings to the city, and his final season surge brought a surprise NL West winning year in 2021. Yet so far, the Giants have been...kinda similar to how they were when Buster took the job. Lots of promise, not a lot of payoff. Now they don't even have the luxury of Logan Webb, as he's struggled in his first few starts. The rough go has landed the Giants at the bottom of the division, below even the Rockies, who are at the very least 'okay' this year. 

There is SOME positive movement in this lineup, but it's not where everyone thought it would be. Willy Adames, after a rough year 1 in San Fran, is definitely his old self, hitting .273 with 6 RBIs, 9 doubles and and 3 homers. Matt Chapman and Luis Arraez are both off to strong contact starts. The big surprise has been Daniel Susac, a rookie catcher who's surged in a backup spot, already 7 for 12 with 3 RBIs. Beyond them, though, it's been disappointing. The whole outfield is struggling, Bailey's still not hitting, and Devers...might just be this kind of high-K hitter now.

At the very least the pitching's better. Webb's gonna come around eventually [hopefully], but until then there's still Robbie Ray, former Cy Young winner and ace. Ray's gotta feel bad that he left Toronto AND Seattle before both teams took off, and now he's in SF without much hope for contention. He's still a very strong option though, with a 2.42 ERA and 24 Ks in his first 4 starts. Ray is 34, a few surgeries removed, and still a strong strikeout artist. Landen Roupp and Tyler Mahle haven't been too bad either. All else fails and they might give Carson Whisenhunt another go, and maybe that'll work this time.

There's enough to distract you from the general disfunction, but the Giants still aren't a true competitor, after years of trying desperately to match up to the Dodgers or Padres. Now they can't even match up to the Rockies. The season is still very young, and a surge is always possible, but not without a lot of much needed waking up. If Devers can go on an April/May run like the one that got him to SF, maybe they'll be alright.

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of where Devers was last year, uh...they're not doing too great either. This outfielder in particular is, but...otherwise it's pretty rough.

The Return of Nola Day

 

You forget how much of a luxury it is for a guy to pitch for the same team for over a decade, routinely make all his starts, and continue to achieve the same level of fan support. Without Wainwright or Kershaw being active, it really is just Aaron Nola right now that's accomplished this. With the exception of last year, where frankly he was kinda burned out, and 2016 and 2017, where he was spending time in Lehigh Valley to get the balance right, every year of his career he's made all his starts and been a reliable, well-loved arm for the Phillies. I've been to my share of Nola Days, I've seen him flirt with a no-hitter, and I've grown to respect him as a veteran arm in an age where the Phillies were more prone to deal a great pitcher, if we'd even had one.

The main issue many fans have with Aaron Nola is those meatballs right down the middle. He can have a start where he strikes out 8 or 9 batters and gets the win but still gives up a home run or two that could have been avoided. In 2024, despite a great season, he led the lead in homers allowed with 30. In 17 starts last year he gave up 18. And in three 2026 starts, despite a 3.63 ERA and 19 Ks, he's allowed...three home runs. When you have guys like Zack Wheeler, Andrew Painter and Cristopher Sanchez, who really don't give up long balls like that, it stands out. And it'll ultimately prevent Nola's stats from being fully embraced when it comes time for HOF enshrinement. The dude's likely to hit 2000 Ks this year, and will very likely get to start his 300th game. But he wasn't THE BEST consistently enough to get the rest of the league to really care, not like Waino and Kersh did for sure. 

At the same time, he's still a very good starting pitcher, who's had a great career, and still has a handful more seasons to play in Philly. He starts tonight's game against the Cubs, and I will be in attendance. There is the concern that the Cubs' menagerie of power hitters could get to him, but seeing as last night was a race to see whose lineup could wake up first that the Phils ultimately won, I'm still optimistic.

The Phillies themselves have began the year 8-8, and haven't really been hitting as well as the reputation would imply. Last night Kyle Schwarber had 2 homers, but I'm still not sure if this'll be a messy 40+ homer season for Kyle or a dignified one. Bryce Harper's thankfully hitting, mostly out of spite, and he's got 3 homers and 10 RBIs already. But honestly, this lineup still feels like something's missing. Alec Bohm is being given more power opportunities and he's not taking advantage of them. Turner and Garcia have been good but not great. Justin Crawford is a terrific contact hitter but isn't anywhere in the lineup where he can really bat runs in. It just seems like an incomplete hitting unit, hence the struggles.

Thankfully the pitching's been doing a lot for us, especially the bullpen. Jhoan Duran, thankfully, IS the guy for this team, and has been terrific so far. Tim Mayza and Tanner Banks have been terrific, and Brad Keller's slowly catching up. And let's not ignore the fact that Andrew Painter's the kind of guy that can recover from a horrible migraine incident, come into the game 2 innings late and still be absolutely elite. Even with the rotation security, we NEED a guy like that. 

The Phillies still look good in points, but you can never tell which team's gonna show up, or when they're actually gonna hit. Hopefully they can continue their damage from last night into a game I'll be there for.

Coming Tomorrow- If the Phillies' have struggled hitting, his team has REALLY struggled hitting, but thankfully he can still pitch 6 innings of clean baseball.

Capitalized

 

I dunno, I think it's kinda ironic that the Mets, this past weekend, got clobbered at CitiField by a guy named Shea.

Here's how variable the AL West has been recently. Since their New York trip, the A's are suddenly in 1st place, after starting the season 3-6. They were 1-5 before they got to Houston, and then they took two from the Astros, which isn't especially difficult this year, then two from the Yankees and then a full sweep of the Mets. And now they're leading the division. Interesting to note that I don't think anything's drastically different between stretches. I just think they've woken up, and are finally playing to potential after a rough opening week. 

It's funny, I was looking through my current hitters binder today, cause I try to collect a handful of current guys, and for the first time since everybody left after the 2021 season, the A's have a really well stocked lineup. And this is even with Rooker hurt. Kurtz, Butler, Soderstrom, Wilson, Langeliers and Muncy represent years of development all paying off at once. If the most notable 'hired hand' guy is Jeff McNeil, who actually isn't doing too badly and sprung to life against his former team, then they're doing something right.

The secret weapon of this A's team that everyone underestimates is Shea Langeliers, who's once again off to a crazy power-hitting start with 5 homers and 10 RBIs. I think it's just tough, in a division with Cal Raleigh in it, to be a notable power hitting catcher. Langeliers has it tough, Yanier Diaz, Kyle Higashioka...it's just tricky. But Langeliers, while he may lack the name brand recognition, is still a crucial part of this lineup, and he's not bad defensively either. Kurtz and Wilson are probably the more impressive all-around players, but having a catcher that belts is always a good thing. Better than having to start Austin Hedges 4 out of 5 games. 

You're seeing the A's begin to form that sort of fun depth that every great team needs. Carlos Cortes is the hungry bench bat with killer perks. Denzel Clarke's the web gem guy, in the grand tradition of Ramon Laureano and Billy Burns. Hogan Harris is the resident long relief specialist now. Jack Perkins also hosts Biography on the side, it's a whole thing. And while this team is still in desperate need of homegrown starting pitching, having comeback seasons from both Aaron Civale, which is surprising and welcome, and Jeffrey Springs, which...annoys me, is definitely helpful. Jacob Lopez is that guy filling the void, and I don't know if he's enough right now. He's also 28. 

I think the reason why everything looks so much sunnier and optimistic for this A's team is that, even keeping in mind the temporary nature of it, the A's are finally wearing 'Sacramento' on their chests and playing as the Sacramento Athletics, even if the MLB isn't word-for-word granting them that. But hey, it says so on the jerseys. Sacramento A's. No use hiding it. 

But yeah, if the A's do intend to take off and make a run, I'm 100% behind them. I think this team can outhit a lot of people, and so far they've really done so. Maybe the world is ready for the A's to be good again. I know I certainly am.

Coming Tomorrow- He made his debut over TEN YEARS AGO. TEN. Making me feel ancient. And he's still in the exact same city, playing the exact same big game situations. 

Arch Arrival

 You know, 30 years ago, if a guy spent his first three seasons in the majors striking out 100 times without hitting anywhere above .200 and then suddenly becomes a consistent and powerful hero, it's because of one of two things. Either he's juicing...or he's just a late bloomer. And there weren't really a lot of late bloomers in the 90s because all the late bloomers just took steroids. 

But now that the development periods are different, you either get people who get called up in their early 20s and waste no time, people who don't get called up til their mid-to-late 20s and make it count, or people who get called up in their early 20s, struggle for a couple years and then after the MLB development time lock into place. And even if I prefer players get called up in their early 20s, we have seen that more frequently nowadays. Casey Mize was like that, Jo Adell was like that, Nico Hoerner was like that, and now Jordan Walker is like that. For three years he was absolutely unfit for the majors, and struggled to do anything at the plate. Now he is 25, and he's hit 7 home runs in 15 games. Keep in mind that his previous single season home run total is 16, from his rookie season in 2023.

Just when the novelty was running out, Jordan Walker's apparently arrived. And that really says a lot about the Cardinals. They know people were just giving up on them, and they're still finding ways to surprise people. Jordan Walker hitting home runs left and right is one way, Gorman and Burleson forming a pretty solid power core finally is another. The Cardinals don't have a ton to work with this year, but they're still not completely out of the conversation.

First of all, as was becoming evident last season, the bullpen. Riley O'Brien, JoJo Romero, George Soriano and Gordon Graceffo have had terrific springs so far, with O'Brien and Romero having yet to give up an earned run. O'Brien has also moved into a consistent 9th inning spot, and that's gone super well so far. Soriano is looking way better in St. Louis than he did in Miami. And even if it's very clear that something is very wrong with Matt Svanson, the core of this bullpen is definitely enough to really rest on. Getting McGreevy, Liberatore and Leahy to provide more consistent starting protection is the next step, but considering this is a year where, for the first time in ages, the Cardinals really don't have a proven ace, I think it's logical that this group takes some time to find itself. Who knows, it could be somebody like Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, Brycen Mautz or Cooper Hjerpe. Then again I'm mostly just waiting for Jurrangelo Cijntje to come up cause I wanna say his name. Ooh, those dutch pronunciations are fun!

I think with J.J. Wetherholt in this lineup, the Cardinals stand more of a chance in the long run. If Wetherholt and Winn are gonna be there for a while, that's a perfectly respectable foundation to work around, and the pieces are gonna fall into place. I think it does mean Alec Burleson and Ivan Herrera might need to go at the deadline, because I don't know if they'll be able to break even by July. But it does show more optimism and forward momentum than the team had in the last few years. 

Who knows, with an organization as well-run as the Cardinals' maybe it'll take far less than 11 years to rebound from a stunning playoff loss to the Phillies.

Coming Tonight: One of the best power-hitting catchers in the AL. Very glad he's out of New York for a bit. 

Cosmic Rays

 

Y'know...a week ago the Yankees could have scored runs off of Nick Martinez.

I dunno, man. You think you have a team figured out and then they can't do anything against Aaron Civale, then can't mount a comeback against a clearly mediocre Rays team. The Rays' bullpen has been vile this year, and still David Bednar goes 'watch this' and ruins everything.

What can't be disputed, even if I'd try to whine about how undeserving the Rays are of a .500 record even if they outperformed the Yankees at home, is the talent emanating from Chandler Simpson. THAT is a leadoff hitter. Get on base, hits triples, steals, gets home. Everything you want. The man is a contact machine, and he could ride a .300+ average for a while at this rate. 'Pesky' is a good word for someone like Simpson, and it's clearer to me how tough of an out he's gonna be in every subsequent Yankees series. At least last year the speedy tough out guy on the Rays could get traded to New York midseason and wind up as a fun utility guy here. Simpson's gonna be a Ray for at least another two years, maybe three if the Rays can't find a good enough trade partner in time. 

I say that, yet they still haven't managed to get rid of Yandy Diaz, and they're better for it. I never would have thought THIS GUY would be a valuable veteran power bat. I saw him as a fill-in infield guy playing for Cleveland in 2017 and I didn't really think too much of him, and then he goes to Tampa and becomes a white-hot power hitting corner. Diaz is currently hitting .362 with 21 hits, 14 RBIs and 3 homers. I know that the Rays expected someone like Aranda or Caminero to be off to a hotter power start, but they'll take more Yandy Diaz production, I know that. And admittedly Jonathan Aranda has 3 homers and 14 RBIs himself, so he's just heating up.

I think the perks of this Rays team get overlooked because it's so easy to see the flaws. Once again, they have no choice but to start Taylor Walls at shortstop, meaning they're wasting like 3 at-bats a game. The Cedric Mullins experiment is not working out yet, and he may in fact just be past his prime. The bullpen is still a major problem area, as even in today's win Mason Englert let an Aaron Judge homer by and nearly wrecked the game. The days of having a murderer's row of sneaky, unhittable specialists all in a line are gone; now these guys are just trying to keep a job. Only Hunter Bigge and Jesse Scholtens have ERAs below 2.50, and Scholtens arguably should be starting. At the very least Rasmussen, Matz and Martinez have been solid so far, but considering that Martinez was already a 'break in case of emergency' starter, and Ryan Pepiot's missing time, them having to reach into depth options IN APRIL isn't a great sign. This is why you don't trade Taj Bradley.

A sweep of the Yankees is a good source of dopamine, but it's still early, and this is still a weaker, flawed Rays team. Unless this really is a moment of pure turnaround, the Rays need to come to terms with their limitations or face another really rough July.

Coming Tomorrow- After three years of 'is he for real', 7 homers in 3 and a half weeks seem to provide a definitive answer to that.

Some Bounce, Some Don't

 

When you're dealing with two notoriously all-time-bad teams, your immediate inclination is to judge which one is worse solely on which one returns to something resembling 'good' faster. I think about how bad the early 2010s Astros were, and it took them til 2014 or 2015 to craft something palpable. The Rays, meanwhile, went from a 4th place team in '07 to a 1st place juggernaut in 2008. It really depends on organizational stuff, what's baking in the minors, what the team can retain, who's ready when. Lot of factors go into it.

So watching the Rockies and White Sox this season is definitely interesting, because you're waiting to see how long it's gonna take both teams to reform and contend again. With the amount of time passed since the White Sox bottomed out vs. the Rockies, you'd think Chicago would be progressing further, but not even Pope Leo shining on them could make the team look any better right now. 

The depth that was forming last year with this White Sox team seems to be evaporating. Brooks Baldwin, Mike Vasil and Kyle Teel, three signs of growth from last year, are all hurt right now. And the roster is simply wearing thin. The starting pitching seems even more pedestrian than before, and now that Shane Smith has been demoted and Jonathan Cannon is out for a bit, the team is down to Sean Burke, Davis Martin and Anthony Kay as viable starting options. Martin currently looks the best, he's 2-0 with 12 Ks through 3 starts, but that's a 5 man line for most other teams. Kay has a 2.45 ERA through 3 starts, and though Erick Fedde exists as a stark reminder that the post-international-leagues bump can wear off fast, he's still being relied upon. But beyond that...lots of openers and replacement level guys. It's not a great look, and it looks even worse when you line up the Sox' hitters, where really only Munetaka Murakami has done anything. Meidroth and Vargas have made some headway but the team's hitting .204 cumulatively. It's not pretty.

You can hope they improve over time, or as they get better pieces back, but it even looks like a setback from last year, which still wasn't terrific.

The Rockies, meanwhile, have shown immediate improvement over their dismal 2025 numbers. Some incredible things you're hearing. The bullpen kept runs down during a homestead. There's multiple starters, including Tomoyuki Sugano, who are really impressive. The young kids hanging around for starts last year are actually earning them now. So far the team's best hitter has been T.J. Rumfield, a career minor leaguer snagged in a deal that sent Angel Chivilli to the Yankees['s minor league system]. Rumfield jumped right in at 1st and is hitting .326 with 14 hits, 8 RBIs and 2 homers in 13 games. 

It's wild to see a core begin to come together for this team when nothing was happening last year. Troy Johnston has joined the power core and is looking like a definite everyday option [while Jordan Beck is looking less and less like one]. Mickey Moniak is hitting all sorts of homers off the bench. Tovar and Goodman still like decent organizational cornerstones right now. Kyle Freeland is still a very nice starting option, and has a 2.30 ERA in 3 starts. And somehow the team figured out that Antonio Senzatela doesn't completely shit the bed if you bring him out as a bullpen option. I knew the Rockies' pen had some nice options, but seeing all of Jimmy Herget, Jaden Hill, Victor Vodnik, Juan Mejia and Brennan Bernardino all looking genuinely great out there is a surprising, and excellent, sign. 

It is odd that I see the Rockies doing more this season than the White Sox, especially considering how the pitching could turn at any minute in that stadium, but the Rockies just seem better put together right now, and have more actual strengths. It could evaporate at any second, I'm aware, but the way things are going now, I see the Rockies looking 'good' sooner than the White Sox. 

Coming Tonight: A guy who absolutely refuses to be an easy out. Naturally he's playing my team this weekend. 

Not The Hit They Had In Mind

 

I know I just said this about the Orioles, but the Angels are a deeply strange team this year. While the Orioles' strangeness is helping them stay good...I'm still not entirely sure where the Angels' strangeness is taking them. Anywhere?

First of all, I don't think the Angels are competing this year. Far too much empty space going on for that. If Jack Kochanowicz and Reid Detmers are in pivotal starting positions and Oswald Peraza is, I assume, the everyday 2B option, then clearly we're a few drafts away. And that's not even mentioning that the contracted guys, like Yusei Kikuchi, Yoan Moncada, Drew Pomeranz and Jorge Soler are not pulling their weight. The most notable thing Jorge Soler has done in two seasons in Anaheim has been trying to punch a guy for throwing at his head when he's notoriously proficient in hitting off of him. Remember when he hit 40 home runs consistently? Can he, like, do that anymore?

The stranger story is the people who are zooming to life and leading the team nearly out of nowhere. Jo Adell, last week, had a night where he robbed three straight Mariners home runs in iconic, SI-spread fashion, and that should be an indication to anyone that after years of waiting, Adell is finally a viable MLB option. His strong 2025 helped, but now he's finally showing how multifaceted he can be, complete with some contact moments this year, some defensive moments, and, yes, a home run or two. I think the Angels were expecting Adell to be this guy from the jump but the relief is palpable nonetheless.

And then you have Jose Soriano, giving this team a homegrown ace at last. The Angels have had to rely on signings like Tyler Anderson and Yusei Kikuchi to head up the rotation for the longest time, with homegrown guys like Sandoval and Canning trying to pick up the slack but inevitably getting hurt. Finally, Soriano is THE guy for this team, and right now he's 3-0 with a 1.2 WAR, 21 Ks and only 1 earned run in his first three starts. If we can eventually get Grayson Rodriguez, Caden Dana and George Klassen to file in behind him and make up a young, dominant backbone in addition to the help Kikuchi has provided, this team could be in better shape going forward.

Aside from that, this is still Mike Trout's team, and this is still Zach Neto's lineup to lead. The Angels have taken two from Seattle and two from Houston so far this season, they're holding their own in a tough division, and they've somehow gotten Jordan Romano to find his control again. Even for a year with low expectations, things are starting out pretty alright for this team, and it's better than the alternative.

Coming Tomorrow- The Phillies gave up on him, the Yankees gave up on him, and the worst team in the league was conveniently in the market for a corner infield bat.

2026 in Getting Out of Tampa

 
The cycle continues. The Rays get something together, then realize they have to play their players, trade people away, and then once again the Rays get something together. Absolutely exhausting.

Right now the Rays have only 1 guy left from the 2020 A.L. Championship season, namely Yandy Diaz. Last season had 3, and two of them were actively either dealt or cut. Now it's down to one. Occasionally you hear talks of Junior Caminero getting a longterm extension, possibly Jonathan Aranda, but nothing permanent comes down. I'll give the Rays credit for signing more free agents than usual, as Steven Matz, Nick Martinez, Cedric Mullins and Jake Fraley wound up here in signings. But that's not distracting from the fact that any homegrown talent is there to attract trade promise and net them even more young, controllable players. This has been the MO since the Kevin Cash years, pure small ball without overextending. The few times they actually sign players, they gamble incorrectly, like with Wander Franco.

And then when people finally get out of Tampa, and get paid...then it's easier for them to have breakout seasons, or even just strong years in general. You're seeing that all around. Taj Bradley got dealt last year for Griffin Jax, and so far he's been one of the best players on a rough Twins roster, going 2-0 with 22 Ks in his first 3 starts. Every bit uncomfortable and unpolished Bradley felt in Tampa is gone, and he's more confident than ever in Minneapolis. Then you have Brandon Lowe, who had another great season last year, then got traded to the Pirates and has been extremely helpful for them this year, with 4 RBIs and 3 home runs in 11 games, in addition to some traditionally strong infield play. Lowe looked to be one of the Rays' last two veterans, and now he's playing for a team that actually seems to be going somewhere.

Sifting through each of the other rosters, it is very easy to find players the Rays gave up on to meet a budget quota. And while we're here...

Angels: Josh Lowe, a late offseason trade loss thanks to a strong desire for Gavin Lux. Lowe was a fairly regular producer for the Rays, and with the Angels he's been slower to start but still getting enough reps.

Astros: Isaac Paredes, one of the Rays' more baffling midseason trades, is the starting third baseman in Houston, and already has 4 doubles and 5 RBIs in a prime position in this lineup. 

A's: Jeffrey Springs, in case none of you are aware, nearly no-hit my team today. That happening now...just seems way too on the nose. The Rays got rid of him a year ago after they grew tired of waiting for him to come back to full power, and the A's actually gave him some money. Only a matter of time before his arm gives out again though. 

Brewers: Jake Bauers was last with the Rays back before any of these people whose departures have pissed me off were even with the team, really. He got sent to Cleveland in the deal that traded Yandy Diaz to Tampa. Since then his career has died and come back, and now he's a handy bench bat with Milwaukee. 

Cardinals: Matthew Liberatore was a longtime Rays organizational staple before he was dealt for Jose Martinez [and also another guy named Arozarena]. He finally made it to the bigs, and is the closest thing the team has to an ace right now. 

Dodgers: Tyler Glasnow and Blake Snell, most notably.

Giants: One of the most egregious ones was Willy Adames, traded during a peak season solely to make room for Wander Franco. Then, when he was suspended and they were left with Taylor Walls and a clearl-not-ready-yet Junior Caminero, they had no one to blame but themselves.

Mariners: Lots, honestly. Randy Arozarena, Luke Raley, Cooper Criswell. Arozarena, like Paredes, was one of those 'you're just doing this to avoid paying him' deals, and while Arozarena has found more success in Seattle, he really should have become a Rays hero. 

Marlins: Xavier Edwards was another infield prospect that just couldn't find room, then got dealt and found playing time and his mojo. Pete Fairbanks was a truly unfair post-2025 cut, and had been doing well enough in a closing role for the Marlins before going on paternity leave. 

Nationals: Zack Littell had become a really nice starting piece for the Rays, and for his troubles he was dealt to the Reds. Now the Nats have him, and he's been serviceable. 

Orioles: Andrew Kittredge ended last year with the Cubs, yet still had a desire to return to the Orioles, because he seemed to enjoy it so much in the first half. That's not even mentioning folks like Shane Baz and Zach Eflin, two pieces of a near-powerful rotation that the Rays had no incentive to keep. 

Padres: You may recall that Jake Cronenworth was a Rays farmhand before his inclusion in the Hunter Renfroe deal. Dodged that bullet, I guess, or else, like Renfroe, he might be a journeyman by now.

Pirates: Jake Mangum and Mason Montgomery were also sent to Tampa in the Lowe deal. Both have found niche roles in Pittsburgh that aren't terribly different from their niche roles in Tampa.

Reds: Both Nathaniel Lowe and Emilio Pagan had crucial roles in competitive Rays teams. Neither have had tremendous starts to this season, but Pagan at least has 4 saves right now. 

Twins: Joe Ryan, like Bradley, was a Rays farmhand. Ryan was dealt for Nelson Cruz, found his way up in Minnesota and became a star.

Yankees: The Rays really could have kept Jose Caballero if they wanted to, but they traded the then-season saves leader to the Yankees, and since then Cabby's been a wise, trusty infield fill-in. 

I'm not sure if any lockout or bargaining agreement or salary cap or ANYTHING can change the way the Rays run their team. It's a very cheap way of doing business, and with no checks or balances against it from the MLB level, they're gonna keep doing it. I don't think they'll ever win a World Series this way, and I don't think the Rays Wall of Fame will be especially long if every plaque ends with 'after a strong four seasons he was dealt to a competitor, where he was paid more and won a World Series'. 

Coming Tomorrow- One of many pieces of proof in Anaheim that good things come to those who wait.

Could You Go About This Any Less Strangely?

 

Okay, we're two and a half weeks in and I'm already calling it, the Orioles are the strangest good team in the game. I dunno how to explain it. This team is working in some sort of mystical, black magic sort of way. Like, y'know how because the Saints play in New Orleans you can make the case sometimes that there'll be some voodoo ritual explaining why they're good? There's no baseball team in New Orleans, so you can't really do anything like that in the MLB, but...I get the strangest feeling with this O's team. This 'skeleton band of the dead' sort of breeze rushing through 'em. I don't know how else to explain it.

Because it's built in the way that a good team should be built. The Orioles finally have good money behind them. Pete Alonso's paid for, at least for a little while. Shane Baz and Samuel Basallo are sticking around indefinitely. I'd hazard a guess that Gunnar Henderson might be next for one of those. But...the guys being backed by contracts aren't the guys pushing the team. Alonso's done okay so far, only 1 homer and 3 RBIs. Basallo has 1 solo homer to his name, nothing else. Baz has been fine, solid if unspectacular. 

It feels like the people doing well for the Orioles right now are the people that everyone, including the team, counted out. And that goes for Adley Rutschman especially. Remember last year when everyone thought the O's were gonna trade him to Philly for Dante Nori or something, since Basallo's in for a while? Well...the funny thing about Samuel Basallo is he's not a viable catching option right now. So even after a down, injury-addled year, the Orioles needed Adley Rutschman. So him hitting like old Adley shouldn't be too shocking. He's batting .241, but he's got 4 RBIs and 7 hits, including 4 doubles. The production is to the degree that it was, as is his catching skills. This is a comeback season in the making, and with Henderson swatting 4 homers and counting and Taylor Ward surprisingly fitting right in with this team, he's instilled more confidence in this team's outlook.

But the strangeness is more in the odds and ends guys, the people I wasn't even thinking about. Like with Yennier Cano a few years ago, the Orioles have struck gold with an oft-cut relief option, namely Rico Garcia, a 32-year-old journeyman who's FINALLY locked in as a member of the O's, scoreless and hitless through 6 appearances. Ryan Helsley, after a disastrous 2025 in Queens, has bounced back big time, and already has 4 saves in 5 appearances. Brandon Young, who would either go deep into a no-no or get clobbered by 3 last year, was pretty fantastic in his first start of 2026. The staff ace, need I remind you, is Trevor Rogers, who everyone counted out after the injury. The requisite utility infielder is Blaze Alexander, who, at least before last game, was batting .300.

Even for a .500 team, the Orioles are getting boosts from the wildest places, and it makes me feel really good about their odds as a spoiler this year. The pressure of keeping 1st is mostly off, now they're trying to embarrass the big guns, and I think they can do that. Then when all the injured guys get back they'll be even more of a favorite.

Coming Tonight: I used to think the Twins were just desperate for pitching period, but maybe they really saw something in this kid.