Flexing From Third

 

Right now, despite a slight difference in overall pictures, there's a team in each league that is currently playing the same role. They are currently in third place in the division, overcame a really rough run, have a 1% shot of a division win thanks to either a comfy favorite or two comfy favorites within a handful of games of each other. They both have some bright young pitching, a few very important pieces joining the team in September, and a halfway decent shot at competition. Right now one team, the Red Sox, has a five game lead over any other wild card competitors [from the second spot], and the other team, the Diamondbacks, has a decent hold on the third spot but are quarreling with the Padres for it. 

The Sox are 74-63, the D-Backs are 73-65. Both teams want it. My prediction is that only one of them will make it, and the other one probably won't despite having a better record than like 2/3rds of the AL. 

The Red Sox, even after getting lambasted by the Yankees this past weekend, look as ready as they did last year, and arguably the lineup's even beefier now. Willson Contreras is having a terrific season as a power corner, with 26 homers and 79 RBIs. Ceddanne Rafaela, aside from his terrific center field defense, is still a ridiculous clutch hitter, leads the league in doubles with 32 and has 67 RBIs. Wilyer Abreu has 23 homers and 70 RBIs. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story just got back and are making the power numbers look even better. I am a little concerned that Adley Rutschman still isn't hitting very well, and has yet to really embrace playing for a competitor again, but on paper this is a team that can go deep.

The downside is that the rotation, while still sporting Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez, is still a little untested. Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle have impressed in full seasons, but neither have displayed the elite dominance that the team will need to take down a Yankee team or a Guardians team. Bennett is 9-6 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP, but he's had some rough starts that are beginning to pile up. Same with Payton Tolle, who's got a 3.09 ERA and 141 Ks. The only guy on this team with over 10 wins is Sonny Gray, meaning the depth guys don't get the team behind them as much as they should. And when some starts have to be handed to Patrick Sandoval and his 4.20 ERA and others need to be an opener game eventually handed to Brayan Bello, who's NOT getting it done at all this year, that reassurance would be nice. This team needs to be durable in a postseason environment, and when Suarez and Sandoval can struggle against New York even in August, it's a bit concerning.

The reason I think they're a better bet than Arizona is that the Sox have so much going on, so much rejoining the team and so much that we know works in October. The D-Backs haven't been since 2023, have a lot of shaky or injured heroes from that team, have minor pieces coming back but have heard mum on the status of Corbin Burnes, and have to outdo the Padres, who arguably have more going on.

The D-Backs went 15-13 this past month, meaning they did actually get a nice amount done but only slightly broke even. Losing Ketel Marte did not help, especially considering how he went out. That's definitely not an ego boost. This team also just lost Mike Soroka again, which isn't ideal especially if Gallen's still out. 

The good news is the core is still surging. Corbin Carroll doesn't have enough going on offensively to truly vie for an MVP this year, but he's got 16 triples, 19 homers, 20 steals and some impressive plays in right, so he's still the talk of the town. Arenado's come back season has crossed the 20 homer mark. Perdomo and Moreno have been very steady and very helpful. Ryan Waldschmidt has filled in pretty well in center, he's hitting .267 with decent contact work and great defense. Jordan Lawlar's finally back, and somehow is getting the edge over Lars Nootbaar. It's not an overly wild offensive team, but they do good, steady work and sneak their way out of tough situations.

Without Gallen, and without Merrill Kelly's better numbers, the rotation has needed to evolve naturally. Eduardo Rodriguez's better numbers has returned, and he's at ace status again, with a 14-4 record and a 2.50 ERA. Somehow Brandon Pfaadt came back after a rough first two months and became must-see TV again, being the starter for 7 wins after coming back [with a 6-0 personal record in that time]. He's been getting rocked a little recently, but it's still a decent year for Pfaadt, with a 3.50 ERA in 24 games. People thought he'd be the future of the franchise when he came up as a postseason hero, and while that hasn't exactly happened he's still come through when the team has needed him. 

Also, this team has a very underrated bullpen. Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo, Brandyn Garcia, Gerardo Carillo and now Justin Martinez have all been excellent, especially in the last couple months. This team has even gotten Dennis Santana to stop sucking. That is an ACCOMPLISHMENT. 

I do ultimately think the Sox have a better road to October than the D-Backs, but the D-Backs are the kind of team who could sneak in and catch fire, much like they did in 2023. I'm not sure how likely it is given the Padres' strengths, and given the fact that the Marlins are still somewhat in the race, but I could see it somehow happening even with everything I know to be true.

Coming Tomorrow- Last year the Marlins had a starting catcher. Then they traded him to Tampa in favor of a younger guy. He started this year. Then they traded HIM to Tampa for a younger guy. This is that younger guy, and he's playing well enough to not exactly start scouting for beachfront property in Tampa about now.

Shallow Cal

 

The good news is that last week, Cal Raleigh returned to form with a 3-homer day against the Philadelphia Phillies, bringing him to 18 homers and 52 RBIs in a shortened, maligned season. The bad news is everything else.

People have made the claim that the lack of Cal Raleigh's better numbers have led to the decline of the Mariners this year, and I'm not at liberty to disagree. The pitching has been very good, Arozarena's having a terrific year, there's still stars in this lineup, but without Raleigh, the weight is gone. Julio tried carrying this team for a bit, Josh Naylor did before he started hitting, Cole Young did, but it all felt imbalanced. By the time Cal got back and started hitting it was too late. The Mariners are hitting .228 as a unit, and the pitching now has a 4.13 ERA cumulatively because even Kirby and Woo are struggling at this point, without even mentioning the bullpen. The playoffs are more and more of a fantasy unless the AL West picture changes drastically, as they are still only 4 games back from the division. Right now though, the losses really are piling up, and there have been some huge losses in the past week. Yesterday was Kade Anderson's second start, and while I'm writing this before the game's actually happened, I sincerely hope the Mariners didn't ruin it for him. But there's always this idea that they could. 

The Raleigh thing may even stem back to the World Baseball Classic, where he was really weird about turning down a handshake to Randy Arozarena despite the fact that they're literally teammates. Like, you don't need to keep kayfabe, this isn't even Olympics level stuff, it's a friendly tourney for bragging rights. The idea is that this ruined his clubhouse goodwill, despite what interviews have said, and him getting off to a horrible start this year didn't exactly help that. He's now hitting .165, which is *better*, but after last season, it's not exactly a strong mark, especially going forward trying to make the Mariners a league superpower. And so the idea of 'was this a fluke' is now circling. The Mariners have had a lot of sure things fade upon entry, including Kyle Lewis, Jarred Kelenic, Evan White and Ben Williamson. The worry is that Cal Raleigh, despite how amazing he's been the last few years, might be headed to that category. I personally do not think he is, I think this is just a rough season, but in baseball things really can turn that quickly.

And so there's already the thought of 'if Cal Raleigh can't carry this team, who can?' Cole Young is already a really sharp young star, he's a contact hitter with excellent infield defense, I think he's a sure bet for a while. Kade Anderson seems to be the real deal, and was as MLB-ready as everyone was thinking. The idea is that Cole Emerson is gonna come into his own and relieve J.P. Crawford of his duties, which might be a little overdue honestly. Now there's the idea of Brock Rodden as a corner infield guy, and if he starts hitting that'll be even better. Naylor's here for a while, as are Julio and Cal. I'm not thinking Randy Arozarena is gonna stick around given the option to stay in free agency [Scott Boras is his agent after all], but hopefully there's enough that can be done to patch this up. 

I think 2026 was very much a harsh lesson for the Mariners, one that still isn't completely unsalvageable but is in danger of being so. If they don't pick back up next season and reverse the narrative, the 2025 season may be a grave 'what could have been' in a history of rotten luck.

Coming Tonight: With how his season started, I did not expect this guy to be such an important piece of this Diamondbacks team hitting the stretch.

Always Be Closing: That Misleading Statistic..

 

I think that when the 'save' was invented, it was a much simpler MLB climate. Relievers could still go 3 innings because they were essentially trained on the same stuff as starters. Nobody was training to just go 3 batters a day yet, and thus careers were longer. Saves were just an arbitrary 'you made sure the game wasn't a loss' thing, and then around the advent of the closing pitcher it became 'okay, you came in and polished it off on purpose', and then the save had some weight. But eventually, as the closer becomes the valued spot it became in the 90s and 00s, there eventually grows a disconnect between saves and pitching quality. You get closers after a while who save a ton of games, your Alfonsecas and Wickmans and Loopers, and do it without being terribly hard to hit. There's a lot of 30, 35 save seasons that have a 4 ERA attached to it. And eventually you segue to this current period, where the closer is less dedicated, it's more RP1, and there are guys closing games that are doing it because they're the best available option. 

And so that's how we've gotten to this current point, where Riley O'Brien of the Cardinals has made an all-star team, and leads the NL in saves with 34, without being, in my opinion, terribly great at actually closing games.

O'Brien was a Rays draftee who bounced around a ton of places before the Cardinals took him on and made him a reclamation project. Last year he was excellent in 42 appearances, with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.5 WAR. In Ryan Helsley's absence, the Cards primed JoJo Romero and O'Brien for a closing spot, and both did relatively well given the opportunity. In camp, the two fought for the closing spot, O'Brien won, and he got to close games for them all year. However, his six losses and five blown saves speak to the reality that for every effective closing appearance there's a few more really shaky ones. Against the Phillies, going into the ninth with a 4-0 lead, O'Brien gave up all 6 runs and effectively sunk the game singlehandedly. Then three days later he got up against Baltimore and gave up the ninth inning run that lost that one. He's one of those guys that can get a save while still letting a run slip by, like he did against the Cubs in May, or making it a little scarier than it should be [he gives up a lot of walks]. And thus, even with those 34 saves, O'Brien may not be an optimal reliever. The statistic tells you he's good at finishing games with wins, it doesn't tell you how dominant he was in those appearances, and compared to a Cade Smith or a Josh Hader, he's not dominant at all. 

O'Brien's rise tells you a couple things. The Cardinals require a lot of save situations, because their starting pitching isn't lights-out and there aren't a ton of blowouts, but they're also around .500 because there's 6 or 7 games that would have been wins had it not been for O'Brien. The Cardinals are very okay this year, and so is Riley O'Brien. It's really as simple as that.

You're seeing some signs things may get better, like Quinn Matthews beginning to field some starts, and the advent of Cade Winquest to potentially help the bullpen. Blaze Jordan is beginning to hit, and for his troubles has immediately gotten hurt. Joshua Baez had that amazing 3-homer game, and...frustratingly hasn't done a heck of a lot since. Next season will definitely have J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker plugged in centrally and trying to move forward, and that's a very good thing. Until then there's just gonna be a lot of awkward false starts and almosts, and 2026 is most certainly one of those, as the NL Wild Card race has pretty much broken away from the Cards at this rate. 

I guess the lesson here is that, while saves aren't as important as they used to be, relief pitching can still be the difference-maker. 

Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know, a guy who nearly won an MVP last year and frustratingly refused to follow it up?

Never Really Ober

 

Okay. So now that the Twins are 4 games back from the nearest wild card spot, and have been lapped by both the Orioles and Blue Jays...that means they can power down a little, right? It's wild to me that a team that's 6 games under .500 is still technically a playoff-chasing team. Then again a team that's at .500 has hold of the AL West right now, so it's all kind of a mess anyway. 

The single wildest part about the Twins' case to compete lasting this long is that their trade deadline acquisitions might be the most successful of anybody's. Dean Kremer's been excellent in four Minnesota starts, with a 3.18 ERA, 20 Ks and a 0.7 WAR. A.J. Minter has a 0.84 ERA in 10.2 innings. Jeff Hoffman has a 4.50 ERA, which compared to his Jays numbers is Bob Gibson stuff. They also brought up Kaelen Culpepper since the deadline, and in 16 games he's hitting .333 with 3 homers and 6 RBIs, already looking like a favorite to start at shortstop next Opening Day. But no matter you drape over this team, fundamentally they still have a long way to go, and only have so many good pieces. The hitters have a combined 13.5 WAR, and that's mainly because the starting lineup is a bunch of 1, 1 and a half WAR guys all doing perfectly alright. With the exception of Byron Buxton, this is a team of pedestrian players doing their best. Brooks Lee, Luke Keaschall, Royce Lewis, Trevor Larnach and Kody Clemens are doing everything they can, even if on any other team a lot of them would be a bench bat. Keaschall I do see a future with, but these days he's a pretty good bat with some defensive struggles. 

You also think about the fact that beyond Taj Bradley, Joe Ryan and Dean Kremer there's still rotation unrest. Zebby Matthews and Connor Prielipp are two fundamentally strong pitchers that aren't having great seasons. Bailey Ober is perfectly fine right now, he's 7-4 with a 4.50 ERA. We've seen him do better. In a season where the Twins had a lick of a playoff chance, this was not the right #3 man performance. Maybe if Mick Abel, Pablo Lopez and Mike Paredes had stayed healthy we wouldn't be here, but that's not the hand the Twins were dealt. You can't really blame the ownership for screwing the pooch here, they actually tried, they didn't completely burn the team down in the offseason, an effort was made. It just didn't really work out, regardless of how close it got.

Even now you can still see some effort being put in, a decent Trevor Larnach season with 11 homers and 43 RBIs, Kody Clemens leading the AL in triples because Corbin Carroll isn't here, and Byron Buxton trying to make the most of yet-another injury-shortened year. There's even the entry of a new rookie star, outfield bat Walker Jenkins, a man born in 2005, meaning there's now people ten years younger than me in the major leagues, which is quite sobering. Jenkins was hitting .308 in St. Paul, got to emerge from the corn in Iowa a couple days before the other Twins did, and now gets to [supposedly] finish the season in the majors. Hopefully he's the next step to a year that doesn't end as strangely as this one for the Twins.

Coming Tonight: An all-star closer who's just now seeing the other shoe beginning to drop.

Shuffling the Bank

 

So since the trade deadline, the usually-strong Phillies fielding strategy has been flipped a bit. Because Luis Arraez is now the everyday second baseman, Bryson Stott has moved to third, Alec Bohm has moved to first, Bryce Harper has moved to right, and Trea Turner...is still playing short despite some really rough play at short. But this seems to have solved enough problems otherwise. The idea of Stott losing playing time to a shift also lit a spark in him, as suddenly he's become one of the best hitters in town, with a .263 average, 59 RBIs and 23 steals. I think earlier in the season Stott was an average piece at best, but suddenly he's got a nice season going on. I'm not exactly sure where Brandon Marsh's bat has gone off to, but we'll take Stott's.

The thing about the Phillies right now is that there's a lot of gambits, but they all seem to be working. Aaron Nola and Andrew Painter both had excellent starts their last time through the rotation. Bryan de la Cruz has been an unexpected gem of a pickup, hitting .350 with 11 RBIs in 20 games. Derek Hill might still be one of the best clutch guys in the league, with 17 RBIs in 46 games. Alec Bohm still has 14 homers and 76 RBIs, and has made up for defensive inefficiency with some cool power displays. And now suddenly J.T. Realmuto is hitting, he's got 9 homers and 44 RBIs in 99 games, the old JT seems to have returned. All this and Kyle Schwarber hitting 40 home runs has kept the Phils alive in the wild card race. 

I think the thing that's getting me grumbling right now is the realization that the MLB keeps actively avoiding handing a Cy Young award to a Phillies pitcher. Zack Wheeler's been up for it like three times, can't get one. Cristopher Sanchez was up for it last year, nah, Skenes's year. Sanchez again has been the frontrunner all year, 'ah actually Jacob Misiorowski's stuff is more interesting'. I mean...yeah, but Sanchez has a 7 ERA, 16 wins, he'll get 200 Ks soon enough. Is that not enough for people anymore? If Sanchez misses half the season next year [heh], you'll all be going 'oh if only we gave him one while we had the chance. Wheeler, despite missing 5 starts, is also having a good season, but since he got lit up by the Mariners his ERA's 3.40. How depressing if you're a sportswriter. Looking at a guy going 'oh, a 3.40 ERA in August, better fire up the crematorium'. I'm fairly convinced, and I mean this jokingly, that most sportswriters don't like it when Philly has nice things. Then again, most Philly FANS don't like this either. I have a friend from middle school who I only hear Facebook posts from when the Phils are losing. When they're winning? Not a peep. What's the point of that? Probably more boring. 

I do think the Phillies are on the right track at this rate, after a strong August. They've got a good hand on a wild card spot, and they're 5 games out from the division, which is slightly doable considering that, and it's wild that I'm saying this...the Phillies might have more pitching depth than the Braves. I know, it's insane to say out loud. I like this team's chances, and I think getting a low seed is a nice way of gaining momentum, as they did before. It's just gonna take more stretches like this one and less series' like the Mariners one.

Coming Tomorrow- A veteran starter for a team that technically still has a playoff shot but...I mean, come on.

Cole Fired

 

You tilt your head up at Brian Cashman a little when he says 'oh, we don't need any starting pitching help this year', seeing the board, and then you remember you have Gerrit Cole up there every five days still throwing amazing stuff, and it all makes sense.

As I'm writing this, Gerrit Cole's given up three runs against the Astros. He's human. Christian Walker's a tough out. But I would still say Cole is among the best pitchers in the game, and definitely among the most accomplished. Verlander and Scherzer are probably done after this year, Sale and deGrom are gonna go next, and after them Gerrit Cole is the next-nearest pitching icon. He's got over 2300 strikeouts, has an outside chance of getting 200 wins, has a career 3.17 ERA, has only missed one full season to an injury, and even at his worst is still a dominant, consistent flamethrower. His weakest season to date, 2017, he still wins 12 games, strikes out 196 and tops 200 innings. This is a classic, old-school starting ace, and the Yankees have definitely gotten their money's worth from this contract. Three all-star teams, a 22.3 WAR, a 3.12 ERA, over 1000 strikeouts and that Cy Young in 2023. The injuries have been tricky the last few years, but even in shortened seasons he's still been great. Right now he has a 3.11 ERA, 100 Ks, 7 wins and a 2.5 WAR. He's not the best pitching performer on the team right now, but when this team also has Cam Schlittler, Carlos Rodon, Max Fried and Ryan Weathers, he doesn't need to be. Schlittler's on the road to a Cy Young this year, Rodon's looked good since coming back, and even Elmer Rodriguez held down the Astros the other night. 

The Yankees right now are in a pretty decent position that's only gonna get better once people start coming back. Cody Bellinger was just activated, he's been hot as hell since coming back, he's got 58 RBIs. Ryan McMahon and Max Fried will be back very soon [and Weathers will likely be back in time for October], and Aaron Judge is probably gonna shoot to return before the end of the year. The team is already good, and rolling, and there's the prospect of them getting better. Luis Garcia's been an excellent addition, he's got 5 homers and 11 RBIs in 19 games. Spencer Jones has filled in mightily as the outfield bat, he's got 7 homers and 23 RBIs. Jose Caballero's still a very sneaky little player, with 30 steals and 44 RBIs. Now Jazz Chisholm's heating up, he's got 18 homers, 53 RBIs and a league-leading 36 steals. Trent Grisham was just getting hot, he's got 18 homers and 56 RBIs. These are all people not named Aaron Judge, and they were all running this team in his stead. There's also the possibility that Jasson Dominguez comes back up when the rosters expand and continues his relatively strong work. And once again, George Lombard was ready for the majors, has 2 homers and 6 RBIs, and has a better shortstop play than his contemporaries. 

Here's how on-track this team is right now. Michael Fulmer just suited up for them the other night. Yeah, that Michael Fulmer. He's in our bullpen now. And he got it done. This bullpen already has David Bednar, Brent Headrick and Paul Blackburn surging, and we have Yerry de los Santos on a good pace. Now that Fernando Cruz is out for a couple weeks, we had an opening, Fulmer was around, so sure. And he's been great so far. I'll take it at this rate.

The Yankees are in very good shape right now, Astros struggles notwithstanding, and I'd love them to turn this into something tangible this fall. I've been burned before, and probably will be burned again, but this team has put it together really nicely this year, and is about to become even better. 

Coming Tonight: A trade deadline deal moved him to third, and made him think his job was in danger. So he shifted into overdrive. 

Minding the Jet-Lag

 

It's gotta be weird when you come up with the new-regime Dodgers and move to a market where the postseason isn't guaranteed anymore. Cause the Yankees could have a fluke bad season, like they did in 2023, or they could have some rebuilding years in between Jeter and Judge. But the Dodgers have made the playoffs every year since 2013, meaning there's a majority of current high schoolers who hadn't even been born yet the last time they didn't make the playoffs. Remember in 2012 when the Dodgers could have Kemp, Kershaw, Hanley Ramirez, Andre Ethier, Adrian Gonzalez and Josh Beckett and still not make the playoffs? That is wild. But they've been there in every subsequent season, and guys like Joc Pederson, Corey Seager, Walker Buehler, Cody Bellinger, Yasiel Puig, Dustin May, Max Muncy and Gavin Lux can all come into careers where they're just in the playoffs every season.

And then they leave, either via trade or free agency, and it's not guaranteed. 

Corey Seager left the Dodgers after the 2021 season, signed a mega-deal with the Rangers, and the year after he got there he was a World Series winner again. His Rangers WAR totals have eclipsed his Dodgers WAR totals, probably because the Rangers have gotten a healthier, more consistent Seager who's been able to play a leading role. Since joining the Rangers, Seager has topped 30 home runs 3 times, which was something he never did with the Dodgers, and his 96 RBIs in 2023 were higher than his Dodgers totals. In joining this team, Seager went from a pretty solid, likable young infielder to a contact machine with a possible Hall of Fame trajectory. He just had to sacrifice the playoff certainty, because aside from the 2023 World Series win, he hasn't really made it back to October too much. 

This year is a closer bet than most, as the Rangers are still circling the division lead, as they and the Astros keep trading off who gets to be good so nobody actually takes a lead. They haven't gotten the BEST version of Seager, as he's still missed a lot of time. He's hitting .224 with 13 homers and 34 RBIs, so at least the production is there. It's been up to a combination of wild contact from Ezequiel Duran and his clutch ability and Cheesy Power Hitter Corner courtesy of Joc Pederson and Jake Burger. This appears to be doing something, and I put them ahead of the Astros for the division, but it's not a definite yet, or even a playoff appearance in general. So that has to be sobering for Seager and Pederson.

Then you have Walker Buehler over in San Diego, and it's a much different situation than the Dodgers years. Because the Padres actually have a nice playoff shot, they're eyeing a wild card spot at the moment, they've all been playing really well recently. Fernando Tatis has caught fire, he's looking like his old self, he's leading the team to glory. Jackson Merrill, Ty France and Xander Bogaerts are playing better now than they have all year. The pitching additions have worked, the team looks way better, and they've been 24-14 since the ASG break.

But Buehler's in a weird position. After all the injuries and delays, he came back last season and wasn't all that great. Made the playoffs with Philly, wasn't used much as a starter. Signs with San Diego, makes the Opening Day rotation, does...fine. Right now Buehler is 8-6 with a 4.63 ERA and 108 Ks, it's fine but not as great as his heyday. But because the team has been steadily chugging along, he's not really much of a detriment. He's succeeding even without his best stuff, and is still a crucial member of a potential playoff team without being 2019 Walker Buehler. So it's an interesting balance. Buehler may have some really critical starts going forward, but right now he's not as valuable to the team as someone like Michael King, Randy Vasquez or Robbie Ray. But he's here, and he's doing his best, and he's still not an awful choice. It's just not what he's used to given how pivotal he was to those Dodgers rotations back in the day.

Both Seager and Buehler have a good chance of making the playoffs, but it's not definite. This is the tougher road to glory, but it's one they're taking nonetheless, and hopefully it goes well for them.

Coming Tomorrow- I think I've seen this guy pitch more than any other guy in my lifetime. Almost always excellent up there.

Outmuscled

 

It really is this simple, even still. The Cubs have six guys in their starting lineup with over 500 plate appearances, and all of them are among the best hitters at their position. Bregman, PCA, Suzuki, Happ, Hoerner, Busch. All show up every day and do their absolute best and outhit everybody, and they do that. One of them's probably winning an MVP unless Shohei has anything to say about it. The Cubs' hitters are hitting .250, there's three guys with over 20 homers [the whole outfield], and even the less-heralded positions have extremely good security. And yet because the pitching staff has a combined 4.6 WAR, compared to the hitters' 31.5, I'm not sure what kind of playoff team the Cubs are going to be.

Like, let's be honest, the Cubs went into July knowing they needed to fix the rotation, and they did. They already picked up David Peterson, then they got Kevin Gausman and Clay Holmes. The rotation is now Imanaga-Boyd-Peterson-Holmes-Gausman, and you all see how that's better, right? Holmes has been terrific in 4 starts, with a 1.96 ERA, and Gausman's continued his steady but not prime season with a 2-1 record and 22 Ks. Peterson's 4-1 with a 3.93 ERA in 9 starts. Obviously this is better. But it's still not elite. Without Justin Steele, Cade Horton or Ben Brown, it's not elite, and the Cubs will need to hope that Imanaga stays this sharp, or that Boyd continues his upswing. They have Daniel Palencia back, he is closing games, but he's still a little shaken. The bullpen's a liability in general still. They got Ryan Zeferjahn to prevent this and he hasn't helped at all.

So the idea is just to keep hammering away, which is effective. PCA's now going for the 30/30/30 season, he's at 26 doubles. Happ has come alive again all of the sudden, he's looking for his 25th home run sooner or later. Carson Kelly's been very steady, he's got 8 homers and 45 RBIs, continuing his positive production from last year. Michael Conforto's been an excellent DH, he's got 12 homers and 33 RBIs. Pedro Ramirez has been a HUGE help filling in for Swanson, he's hitting .291 with 21 RBIs and 10 doubles. They've had some huge wins in the past week, including scoring 19 runs against the Mariners, and now get to play the Reds this weekend as they head towards a quiet fall.

I just know that the other teams in the NL will be more balanced. The Phillies have great pitching and some definite stars in the lineup. The Braves and Brewers have both facets in droves. The Dodgers obviously are balanced. I can see this team outmuscling the Padres but that's basically it. Unless the Cubs somehow figure it out in a way that fixes all the issues the pitching has had all year, they may exit the postseason around when they did last year, and I really don't want that for them.

Coming Tonight: One of the single most consistent all-around performers in the game. He's got two World Series rings. Right now he's trying to get his team to the playoffs, which is way tougher than it should be.

Kwan the Record

 

So as it stands right now, with a month or so left in the season, the Cleveland Guardians have the third AL Wild Card spot. The Yanks and Sox have an insane lead for those first two, the Guards have the third, and are a game ahead of the Rangers for it, while also being 2.5 games behind the White Sox for the division. It's not a bad place to be. The thing about this Guardians team is that the tide can shift at any moment because, as you'll recall, this team was poised to lead the division for the first few months, then May and June happened and they fell away from .500, and then late July and early August happened and they got even less of a foothold.

However, they have won their last seven games, which works out considering they were all against noncompetitive west coast teams, and now get to play the Royals after they're done with LA, so this time I believe there is an effort to make the Guardians a playoff team yet. Not sure if it's being led by the Guards themselves or the MLB, but there you go.

After a really dull first few months, Steven Kwan is now one of the most important players on this team. His defense is still league-tier, and his contact game is as helpful as always. There are so many years where the Guardians were about to trade Kwan, or could have but didn't, and so he's remained the backbone of the lineup, with some production guaranteed despite the lack of extra base hits this year. A team that has Steven Kwan, Jose Ramirez and Brayan Rocchio together doing the contact work is way ahead of the competition, and the hitting by those guys alone has been very impressive, not even mentioning the power guys like DeLauter, Lowe and Adell. By the way, Jo Adell is working pretty damn well as the right field option in Cleveland, he's got 4 homers and 18 RBIs already and the fans love him. Angel Genao's also coming into his own at short, meaning Bazzana and Genao could be a recurring thing going forward. Like usual, the Guardians are a swiss army knife of great young players who can all trade off being the hero, and now that Angel Martinez's better numbers are back the team's even more volatile.

In addition, Foster Griffin appears to be working as the fifth rotation guy. He hasn't been Nats-strong yet, but keep in mind that he took about a month to lock in with Washington, and he's still got a 4 ERA, and 3 wins. Bibee, Messick and Williams are perfectly fine handling most of the work though, and Williams is in the midst of a 200-K year, which should surprise no one. I blinked and Cade Smith has 35 saves, that's pretty awesome considering the job was all but Clase's a year and a half ago. Just the best bullpen in the AL probably, despite Craig Yoho's best efforts. 

The Guardians currently look better than the White Sox, and could reclaim the division and make October very interesting. They have a very nice chance of making the postseason, but unless they make a run at the division, their berth may be at the hands of whichever bandwagon wild card team wants to take off. Which won't be as fun.

Coming Tomorrow- A very sturdy catcher for one of the best hitting teams in baseball. 

Keeping Distance

 
As I write this, both the Braves and the Rays, who've been leading their respective divisions for the majority of the summer, now have a competitor 3.5 games behind them. Both teams have lost a ton of ground in the last few weeks. The Rays dropped 5 of 7 games to the Orioles, one of which I was in attendance for and was truly glorious. The Braves are 6-10 since the start of the Yankees series back on August 7th, and despite a nice showing last night against the Dodgers, are in danger of being lapped. 

Of the two, the Braves probably have the better team, or moreover the one with better infrastructure. The current incarnation of the team has Ronald Acuna, Austin Riley, Ha-Seong Kim, Sean Murphy and A.J. Smith-Shawver all healthy, for once. Now, forget for a moment that none of them are playing especially well. The infrastructure is still there. Mike Yastrzemski and Lane Thomas are all on hand to prevent against Acuna getting hurt again. Jim Jarvis just went down but something tells me he'll be back soon enough to buttress Dubon and Kim. The point of getting Tyler Mahle was to ensure that A.J. Smith-Shawver wasn't gonna overtax himself trying to be that strong fifth man, and Mahle's honestly been a better answer, he's 2-1 with a 1.52 ERA and 23 Ks in 4 starts, better arguably than his Giants numbers. 

I did get to see Ronald Acuna hit a homer a few weeks ago. It was during a loss. So him doing his flapping his arms schtick and clowning around, even during a loss, that doesn't work as well. That works when they're all playing well as a unit, or when Acuna's having a 40-70 season or something, but not when he's trying to salvage another mid year. It's clear he's still a great talent but he's not consistent. Every year either he's gonna give you gold or hobble through half the season and be alright for the rest of it. This year he's not the main takeaway from this Braves team, Baldwin and Olson are. And I'm not sure how he is with that.

The Rays, meanwhile, came into prominence after steadily climbing the division and going on a streak once the Yankees went cold. They've sustained the momentum for most of the season, but they're 4-7 since the A's series ended [along with a 9 game winning streak], and 5 of those games, as discussed, came at the hands of the Baltimore Orioles. The other two came from another division rival, the Blue Jays, so it really just adds insult to injury. Freddy Peralta's still struggling like he did in New York, the bullpen's beginning to turn again despite Bryan Baker leading the league in saves with 38 [he did give up the double to Dylan Beavers that sunk the game I went to though], Aranda and Diaz are beginning to calm down a tad, and the magic of late June through July may be wearing off. 

I want to stress that there's still a lot that works about this Rays team though. Getting Liam Hicks was a really savvy decision, as he's an excellent contact hitter that went yard when I was in Baltimore. He's not a great catcher, but he hits better than Nick Fortes does. Ryan Vilade is a big, well-built truck of a man who isn't terrific in right but hits pretty well, with 11 homers and 37 RBIs. He's somewhat limited but he's a great role player, a lot like Jonny DeLuca honestly. Chandler Simpson is leading the AL in steals with 35, and he leads it in triples with 6, though still no home runs. And of course, Junior Caminero's having another phenomenal year, with 35 homers and 84 RBIs. The man is a star.

Here's what I'll say, regarding who gets caught. The Yankees have a higher probability of catching the Rays than the Phillies have of catching the Braves, because the Phillies have forgotten they're a baseball team more often than the Yankees have. The Yanks just got Cody Bellinger back, Max Fried should be on the way, and they're gonna keep getting stronger. The Phillies had a nice week back there but now they're waking up the Mariners and some of the same issues are still at play. I still think the Braves are a better team than the Phillies, and the Dodgers series is proving it. The Yankees might be on the same level as the Rays, and could get very close to lapping them if current trends hold. 

Coming Tonight: One of the most consistent hitters of the decade in a Cleveland team that, need I remind you, has also had Jose Ramirez on it. 

Whatever Motivates You...

 

I did not think it would take signing Edwin Diaz for Tanner Scott to become a great closer again.

Not that he was bad last year, but around midway through, things hit a snag. 23 saves is all well and good, but he kept blowing them, and ended the year with a 4.74 ERA and a -0.6 WAR. Yes, he still won a ring, but he saw no playoff time with the Dodgers because the team was too scared to actually use its bullpen, so they had like 4 other starters do all the relief work, gaming the system. Scott, at his peak with Miami, was one of the most effective relief pitchers in the game. To be perfectly honest, him not always succeeding as a closer isn't really a knock on him, as he's arguably just better as a setup man. Those 23 saves he got last season while tanking were a career high for him, so I think being a better closer involves not doing all the things that make him a great reliever. It's kind of screwed up. 

So moving Scott back to a setup role wasn't exactly a death sentence, and to be fair it worked alright for Blake Treinen. But then Edwin Diaz absolutely flounders in LA, leaving the ninth open and plenty of opportunities for Scott to save games. So he's been a ton better this year, with a 2.24 ERA, 19 saves and 64 Ks. He feels elite again, and he's stayed extremely consistent. Being surrounded by Jack Dreyer, Edgardo Henriquez, Alex Vesia and Brock Stewart also helps, as they've all been fantastic in relief roles. 

For the Dodgers, the return of Tyler Glasnow means the overpopulation of the rotation is once again a factor, because nowYamamoto, Skubal, Snell and Glasnow are non-negotiable, and it's down to either Roki Sasaki, who's not terrific but still good enough, and Eric Lauer, who asked to be traded from Toronto due to being made to do long relief appearances, for that last spot. AND at some point Shohei Ohtani is expected to start games again, so that'll make it even more crowded. I really do think going for a skeleton crew formation for now, emphasizing Yamamoto, Snell, Skubal and Glasnow, and priming the other two for relief roles in the playoffs, is the way. That way if Ohtani is ready to start again by the postseason, at worst that means you'd be using Glasnow in long relief as well, and that's...still pretty nice, despite how shaky Glasnow's seemed tonight.

The Dodgers have won six straight after a messy mid-August, but these six have been against the Rockies and Pirates. This week is the Braves, who are still quite good, and the Tigers who are really sneaky and are looking good against the Rays right now. From there they play a lot of teams that could be spoilers, from the Nats to the Marlins to the Reds. The Dodgers want that top seed, or at least enough security and momentum to make October as easy as the last two, and without Shohei Ohtani's usual batting dominance [he's ONLY hitting .288 with ONLY 30 homers and 80 RBIs, the madman], the team will need to try harder than usual. It's looking trickier now that Andy Pages is hurt and both catchers are still out for another week, but they're trying everything. Alek Thomas is now starting in center, giving the outfield a combined WAR of 0.0. Kyle Tucker might be an albatross around this team's neck if he doesn't start hitting, because at least Bobby Abreu would do some hitting when you signed him. Tucker has a .689 OPS. Miguel Rojas, who's about to retire and manage somebody probably, has a .720. Ye gods.

I'm not as mad as I am at the Astros that the team's still a frontrunner, because there's so much that's elite about this team, the runs have no problem getting scored and the depth is there, I just don't think they're the best team in baseball right now. The Dodgers might be playing more defense standings-wise than they're used to this year, and they'll need to really dial in if they want that threepeat, because right now there's one or two teams that might want the NL more.

Coming Tomorrow- A man that is all torso, all neck and all business. 

On the Precipice of Another Yanks-Stros Series

 

So here's what we know. When it doesn't count, the Yankees have a winning record against the Astros. Regular season play we win a lot of our series' against them now. This season the Astros lost their first series against the Yankees back in April. Admittedly that was when we still had Aaron Judge but it's okay now because Heliot Ramos and his negative batting average is here. 

It is now late August, and both teams have playoff considerations. One team is on a relatively strong run right now, and the other team has been shakily bobbing back and forth between 1st and 2nd on a sub-.500 record. One team is getting stronger as more people come back, and one team just fired their GM and traded away a starting pitcher in a year they really needed starting pitching.

What I'm saying is I'm worried.

Tonight, the Astros are starting a rookie named Ethan Pecko, a guy from Upper Darby who, between him and Adam Macko, ensure that Texas will now lead the union in names I cannot take seriously. ETHAN PECKO. Sounds like a side character in an Animaniacs sub-character segment. The Goodfeathers take on Ethan Pecko in Breakfast: Impossible. He did fine in his debut last week, but gave up the sole two runs of the game against the Angels, meaning the bullpen, which has been snakebitten but improving, had to save the day. Considering that Peter Lambert and Hayden Wesneski are playing big roles for this rotation, why not Ethan Pecko? I'll remind you that Cristian Javier is struggling to stay unhit, Ronel Blanco's chilling in the minors after an 8 ERA, Kai-Wei Teng and Tatsuya Imai aren't allowed to start anymore and Spencer Arrighetti's now helping a team I don't hate make a playoff run. And that these rotations used to be so packed that Jose Urquidy and Luis Garcia would barely make the cut. But sure, Ethan Pecko.

I feel similarly about Cam Smith, one of the go-to outfield bats for the Astros now. He's been here all season and he's hitting .215 with a .671 OPS, despite 17 homers and 48 RBIs. This outfield has seen George Springer, Michael Brantley, Josh Reddick and Kyle Tucker, and now it's basically down to Cam Smith to keep things moving, and...he's a sharp enough player but right now he doesn't compare. And the team desperately needs him to. At least Jeremy Pena has covered for Carlos Correa excellently, and is having a terrific year despite missing time. At least Yordan Alvarez is probably winning an MVP as a rare returning Astro who can actually do what he's supposed to. If there's no support, and a lot of okay options rather than strong ones at multiple spots, there's no point.

There's still a chance the Astros can win the division, because the Rangers are similarly noncommittal and the Mariners seem to have decided to punt. But I really think it's an uphill battle with this specific squad. I'm still very worried they can outdo the Yankees this week and get rolling, but I just don't see the vision with this team going deep.

Coming Tonight: He was given the ninth in a huge market last season, and he struggled. So they got someone else. Then that someone else shat the bed big time and now the other guy's a great closer again.

Murph-ection

 

Heading into what could be the last MLB postseason before a lockout, there's one thing that the majority of MLB fans are hoping for, and that's a thwarted threepeat. The Dodgers winning isn't interesting anymore. Not that it isn't cool for the team with Shohei Ohtani to win rings, no that's fine, but it's not interesting that it keeps happening despite all the other more interesting stories coming out of the woodwork. The Dodgers are supposed to be the place-setter that other teams subvert. It didn't happen last year, even if it arguably should have.

So here we are again. The Dodgers are one of the best teams in baseball, and the Brewers currently have a better record than them. This week they have to play the Mets, perennial spoilers, and the Rangers, who are likely just about to decide they'd like to win the AL West after all, and- NO, DON'T CLOSE THE STREETS DOWN YET, LOS ANGELES.

I think I look for so much logic in baseball, a very illogical pastime, and I always expect the top team to face some bit of difficulty getting to the end since this is a larger playoff schematic, and...well, the ones I root for always do. So I try to expect something different given the recent subversions and changes and I still get gobsmacked by a trite, unexpected outcome that...ultimately is the most expected outcome.

The Brewers are currently the best team in baseball. They haven't been to a World Series since the 1980s. They've been to three NLCSs since 2010. They have a team with the depth to withstand just about anything. I really want this to happen.

Logan Henderson is a big piece of 'why this year', because it took him a while to stay healthy, and it took the Brewers a while to find room for him, but the stars aligned. This year he's been phenomenal, with an 8-2 record, a 2.60 ERA and a 0.894 WHIP in 13 starts. He's looking confident, durable and exactly as advertised. Misiorowski is obviously the takeaway, he's on a Cy Young path, and Harrison is a really nice, consistent second option, but having Henderson there as the strong third option makes for a really winning October combination. And Shane Drohan, Robert Gasser and Dustin May aren't too bad either. A whole onslaught of really impressive arms, plus arguably one of the best bullpens in baseball. Like, when even losing Abner Uribe doesn't really wound the unit, that's when you know you're alright.

And beyond that, the core of Jackson Chourio, Jake Bauers, William Contreras, Brice Turang and Garrett Mitchell is truly excellent. Chourio's still one of the most unstoppable young players in the league, Bauers is having a career year and might get to 25 homers, and nearly everybody is hitting. Luis Lara and Cooper Pratt are also both contributing and having excellent moments. Lara's a great contact hitter with great outfield coverage, and Pratt's already making shortstop his own, despite the recent surge from Joey Ortiz. The talent runs so deeply, and the forward progress is across the board.

I really think the Brewers can go deep this year, and learn from the 2025 loss to become even better going forward. Obviously the MLB itself would prefer a Dodgers win...but a Brewers win might be even cooler.

Coming Tomorrow- A second-year outfield bat from a team nobody is stopping from winning the division. 

...Just to Keep From Being Thrown to the Wolves

 

The White Sox have about five weeks left to cement the unthinkable. In a year where the Tigers, Royals and Guardians were all expected to compete, they are still hanging onto first place for dear life, on the strength of a bunch of 20-year-olds, a Japanese rookie who hits dingers, and a ton of really close games and walk-offs. For a team this streaky and basic, it's not gonna be over til they wave the flag, and they need to keep from coming apart. This is year one of the competitive White Sox experiment, and they want to take this as far as they can.

Already you're beginning to see a few of the strings come undone. After being one of the best pitchers of the first half, Davis Martin has slowed down and will be missing time with an injury. Sean Burke has stepped up in his stead, and Anthony Kay, Erick Fedde and Luis Castillo are doing what they can to support him, but...you see the issue, right? The hook of this rotation was that it was centered around the youth movement. Now Noah Schultz, David Sandlin and Shane Smith are all sitting in the minors rather than supplanting the older, shakier rotation options. The fear is that those guys aren't much better, and recently Schultz and Sandlin have gotten roughed up, but it's worth a shot, right? We saw Shane Smith's highs. He hasn't been TERRIFIC in Charlotte but he's still a confident enough young arm. Hagen Smith is also around, but the team is very hesitant to let him start, and I'm still not sure why, considering he was doing pretty well at that in the minors until someone got the bright idea to start using him in relief. You don't see the Mariners doing that with Kade Anderson, right? No, they started him, and it worked. This is what the Pirates did with Bubba Chandler last year, and I don't think that worked for them either.

I think the idea is just to outhit everybody and hope that still works, and judging from all the walk-offs that's been doing the trick. Jake Rogers had the big one the other night, the blast so incredible that one lady in the crowd nearly showered the contents of her purse all over the field level seats. Yesterday was Tristan Peters's turn, he had a walk-off homer. Two guys are closing in on 30 homers, and a 3rd ain't too far off. The depressing part is the lack of catching stability but Rogers and Romo are doing what they can.

An underrated piece of this team this year is Andrew Benintendi, who's been around since before the rebuild. Benny was supposed to be a huge piece of those competitive Red Sox teams going forward, and has wound up as the least accomplished of the Killer B's, with his speed basically gone, his contact ability waning and his defense nonexistent. All that remains is a halfway decent power hitter, and with 13 homers and 64 RBIs he's been that. It's not pretty, and he's not on target as much as his contemporaries, but he's got a role to fill, and he's filling it pretty well. 

The Sox have to play fellow AL competitors the Rangers and Twins coming up, and hopefully they can stave off the Guardians for that playoff spot. Nothing's over in this division til the Guardians say it's over, and the Tigers aren't completely out of it either, so hopefully this Sox team can be in it for the long haul.

Coming Tonight: Once he figured out how to stay healthy, and once the team found room for him on the MLB roster, the big game stuff was bound to show up.

The Right Time to Duck Out?

 

Last year, Bo Bichette helped the Blue Jays get to a World Series. Then he left in free agency. Now, from the looks of things, neither his new team nor his former team will be making the playoffs at all. The Mets are out of it, the Jays are a game or so behind but not looking great. Was this trip really necessary?

Let's look at Bo's numbers with the Mets this year. He's hitting .268 with 14 homers, 66 RBIs and 101 strikeouts. His atrocious defense has followed him from Toronto to New York, and now at third he's not really in his element, in addition to the shaky hitting numbers. It's not like this is the first flaw for Bo, his 2024 was kinda rough too, but in the first year of a new contract, he was expected to play a large role in the Mets' run, and despite not getting injured [unlike most of the rest of the team], he's made only a light impact. 1 win above replacement despite 550 at-bats. Reminds me a bit of how his dad's first year in Cincinnati went. Admittedly I don't think he's as bad of a fielder as Dante was, but it hasn't been doing him any favors.

And in a season where so many pieces have gotten injured, a lot has been on Bo, and he's only done so much. And now some of the guys who got injured are beginning to do the work anyway. Luis Robert hit two moonshots yesterday. Francisco Alvarez seems to be hitting again. Marcus Semien's been piling up cheesy power. Sean Manaea's had a bunch of decent starts. Even Kodai Senga seems to be working as a closing option somehow. But Bo seems to just be kind of there. I'm not saying that's how the whole contract will go, assuming he doesn't opt out [who am I kidding, he's toast]. But it's an uneven step for a career that seemed to be on a strong path just last year.

Yet I don't think things would have gone too differently had Bo stayed in Toronto. It's been a similar story- Guerrero, Kirk, Springer, Lukes and Sanchez have all spent time on the IL, and it's dulled the output tremendously. The difference is that the rare 500+ at-bat guy, Ernie Clement, is not only having a nice season but feels central to so much of the action. That's why he was the top vote-getter in the AL. He's a terrific contact hitter with nice defensive perks and everybody loves him. It's not as if the fans have given up on Vlad Jr., there's still room for him to improve given all the equity, but all wasn't exactly lost without Vlad's better numbers. This team still has a 25+ home run guy, even if it is Kazuma Okamoto admittedly slightly off his game from the usual averages. 

But I feel like if Bo was on this team, he'd be doing the same thing, and it would be a 'what is going on with the Jays' year, cause he and Vlad would be struggling at the same time. And that's not good if you're the defending AL champions. Even if you have call-up stories like Brett Bateman and Charles McAdoo coming around, or Jose Soriano making the most of the deadline gambit, or the continued inevitability of Dylan Cease stealing the Cy Young out from under Cam Schlittler's fingertips, if the marquee guys aren't cutting it, there's an issue.

I'll give the Jays this- Alejandro Kirk has been making up for lost time, and he's on fire recently, with 7 homers, 28 RBIs and a .283 average in 55 games. Once again he feels like his old self, and while it's nice to have Brandon Valenzuela around for the security, Kirk is the #1 catching option for a reason, and can still be relied upon. In something of a lost year, even if there's still a chance of making the playoffs, that's at least a plus.

Who knows where Bo and the Jays will go next year. I see Bo making improvements and reclaiming the narrative on a team that isn't the Mets, and I see the Jays reforming and contending again. Who knows how accurate that read is though.

Coming Tomorrow- I never thought he'd end up as a fairly average power DH after how impressive he looked as a rookie, but I suppose this is how things are going.

Rockie Business as Usual

 

The best thing you can say about the Rockies this year is that they are no longer historically bad. They are no longer 'worst ever' bad. They are just plain bad, which works I suppose.

Every so often you do hear of something good happening to this team, like a Jake McCarthy multi-homer day or a Hunter Goodman RBI masterclass, or Mickey Moniak still doing something cool. So the Rockies can still hit for power. That helps I suppose. You're in Denver, why not? The defense is still kind of atrocious, you've got Karros, McCarthy, Johnston and Moniak all doing well enough at the plate then drawing straws to see who gets to DH. Ezequiel Tovar's defense used to be a perk, but he's just not good at anything this year. The only really good defender on this team is T.J. Rumfield, and everyone else is average or below average. 

Willi Castro is pretty indicative of the issues here. He is a career utility man, and can play a few different positions, but the trick is that he's got to be able to play them well. At second base he is decent I suppose, but he's losing defensive runs and doesn't have the range you'd expect. He's playing 2nd more often than not because Edouard Julien didn't work there [what a shocker], and the cool thing is, seeing as this is Denver, his power numbers are up. He's got 14 homers and 53 RBIs, plus a .423 SLG, which isn't Moniak or Goodman levels but is still good. It helps that this team has pure contact guys like Troy Johnson and Kyle Karros in addition to the power core.

Losing Hunter Goodman for a bit is a pretty harsh blow, but the Rockies have been moving some guys around from the minors. Zac Veen is up again, and he's been doing better than last time, with 2 homers, 7 RBIs and a .263 average in 8 games. Connor Norby's up after the trade for Victor Vodnik, he's hitting .269 with some of his usual contact success. I'm not sure if he's gonna be a working piece for them going forward, seeing as he's sort of limited defensively, but the contact numbers certainly help. I'm not sure if Jordan Beck's gonna be a thing for them sadly, he's still a sub-.200 hitter without much versatility. Brett Sullivan's a decent enough backup catcher that also is an above-average pitcher in blowouts. And for some reason, after failing to keep anything down in Los Angeles or Philly, somehow it is DENVER that levels Jordan Romano, as he's got 8 saves in 14 opportunities, and seems to have the position despite many younger options. 

The Rockies are still kind of a mess. I have no idea what this rotation will look like going forward because there's no slam dunk options, and Chase Dollander constantly had to be opened for and still got hurt. If they can't get a halfway decent rotation together, in Coors Field, they're just gonna be like this for the rest of the decade, and again...there's a way of avoiding this that nobody in the front office wants to approach. So for now, enjoy the mildly interesting shitshow and let's hope there's some level of improvement.

Coming Tonight: He missed a lot of time for Toronto, but he's certainly been making up for it in the last few weeks. 

Groom and Bored

 

Thursday's game against the Astros really worked both poles for the Angels. Yes, they completely ravaged Peter Lambert in the 4th with 6 runs [in addition to the 4 he already gave up], then kept beating down the bullpen with 8 more, culminating in a 7-RBI day for Zach Neto...but Wade Meckler, one of the most exciting and fun pieces of a lost season, went down midgame thanks to a Bryan King pitch that hit him in the head, and now he might be on concussion protocol. And they just lost last night's game in extras thanks to a Ezequiel Duran walk-off, one of like 6 walkoffs yesterday it seems.

At this point, the Angels really are just trying to keep the lights on, but Meckler was one of the guys making that a lot easier. He's 26, was mostly a Giants farmhand that was relegated to Sacramento mostly after a promising call-up in 2023 that went nowhere, and wound up being cut after last season and claimed by the Angels. He's got good defensive skills, hits for average, and is just a sneaky little contact guy that helps any roster he's on. The Angels had issues with Josh Lowe and Jose Siri as left field options, and so Meckler got the gig a few months ago, but he's ran with it, hitting .288 with a .740 OPS and 59 hits in 70 games. He only has 20 RBIs, but he's been excellent in the last month, and has been a bright spot in a lineup very much hanging it up by this point. And now they might not have him after the HBP. That sucks.

I'll give the Angels this, I know where they're headed I think. I don't assume Zach Neto or Nolan Schanuel will be traded in the offseason, though there's always a chance, and those two are still mighty tentpoles. Neto has 21 homers and 61 RBIs, and is an excellent shortstop. Schanuel's been heating up, is hitting .276 and has 49 RBIs. Vaughn Grissom and Oswald Peraza have been nice additions to the roster, and have provided some semblance of stability. Jose Siri's having a decent comeback year in between injuries, and has gotten a lot more playing time since Jo Adell left. There's still issues, like the lack of a solid catching option, the inability for Denzer Guzman to get anything going, and rotation depth in general, but there is a gameplan in place. And yes, having Mike Trout putting in some solid enough late-career work is very helpful.

The most intriguing thing about this Angels team is that, since the deadline, the bullpen has entirely crumpled and tossed and now looks entirely different. Suter, Zeferjahn and Silseth are gone, Sam Bachman is hurt, Mitch Farris is down. A whole host of people have been brought up and are now making for a much better bullpen experience. Some of these guys are long-injured favorites, like Ben Joyce, finally healthy again and capable of 100mph speeds. Some are recent callups that have been really strong in early appearances, like Luke Murphy, Ryan Watson and Blake Weiman. Some are former Rookie of the Year Michael Fulmer, looking to stay on a roster for a bit even in the midst of a career nadir. I think losing Samy Natera, someone I know will be a terrific bullpen piece given a healthy year, hurt, but these other guys have been doing really well, and point towards a much better follow-up year.

The Angels have signs of life, and could work on something given the right circumstances, and developments in the past week or so have kept me optimistic. They are, ultimately, still the Angels. But they're now in fourth place, ahead of the very hurt A's. So maybe this rally means better days are ahead.

Coming Tomorrow- A utility man known for being plugged in anywhere...being plugged in one specific place this year due to desperate times.

Throw for Broke

 

The Pirates have been so bad for so long that this team, that is likely to still miss the playoffs, is championship caliber almost. At last, a Pirates team that seems to actually know what it's doing and has enough young players to build on...potentially. 

The Paul Skenes thing is a little scary, no joke. He's not pitching as well as he was last year, or even earlier in the season, and people are worried he's gonna need surgery. He was better in his last start against the Tigers, but gave up 3 runs and only struck out 5. Something is probably up, and to be perfectly honest, there being the potential for work stoppage next year might be the best thing for him. But the silver lining is that this year it's not all on Skenes, and Braxton Ashcraft, Bubba Chandler, Jared Jones and Carmen Mlodzinski have all been picking up the slack. Jones got here late but has been pretty durable, with a 4.50 ERA, 72 Ks and a 1.203 WHIP in 14 games. Not perfect but he's eating innings and doing what he should be doing. Ashcraft has been the defacto ace, and he's got 13 wins, 159 Ks and a 3.68 ERA, very impressive. Chandler has improved greatly since the first few months, and has a 4.23 ERA and 108 Ks. And Mlodzinski has a 4 ERA and 81 Ks over a season split between long relief and spot starts. He seems to have a handle on things as a starter, which certainly helps. I feel like this rotation's maybe one arm away from greatness, and it looks like Mitch Keller might not be that guy anymore. I have no idea who the next young arm up at bat is, but I suppose we'll find out next year [I hope].

The array of young people stepping up and saving this team has spread to the lineup, as now Rafael Flores has popped up as a fun outfield bat, he's got 6 homers and 12 RBIs in 19 games. He's right there with Esmerlyn Valdez who, while he has slowed down, as 14 homers and 41 RBIs. It does continue to piss me off that Jhostynxon Garcia continues to not work in the majors, as once again on a come-up he struggled to get anything done, and even Jacob Gonzalez, who looked like a steal from the White Sox, is hitting around .210 in 29 games despite being a strong fill-in for Konnor Griffin. The veteran core of this team [Reynolds, Lowe, Cruz, Gonzales, Mangum] has been very helpful, and there's enough steady power and impressive offensive flair to go around. It's also just very good to have Oneil Cruz back, as he was just getting things together when he got hurt. 

Sadly, despite all the great bullpen additions [Lake Bachar, Kirby Yates, Luke Weaver, Camilo Doval], the Pirates still are a long-shot for the postseason. They have won 5 of their last 7 and cut the Tigers down to size a little, but they're still four or so games back from the main wild card scrum, and may not have done enough to really go for it this year. Hopefully it can be built on so that they don't run into this problem again in another two years.

Coming Tonight: Nobody knows who he is, or where he came from, but he's been a nice under-the-radar success for a team that recently made waves by getting the hell out of last place.

Your Driver's Outside

 I have seen several inexplicable comebacks over the 17 years I've been writing this blog. I saw Bartolo Colon bottom out and then become a backbone of multiple rotations in his 40s. I saw Jon Singleton come up, crumble and then return to help the Astros win a ring. I saw Eric Thames come back from Korea with a power-hitting vendetta. I saw Matt Bush finally make the bigs and become a relief specialist in recovery. I saw Rich Hill emerge from minor league hell and become a Dodgers and Red Sox hero. This year alone I saw Peter Lambert return from obscurity to lead the Astros' rotation. I thought I had seen it all.

And never in my wildest dreams did I ever think Randy Dobnak would not only return to the bigs, but be a reliable piece of a team again.

The thing about Randy Dobnak in his 2019 and 2020 heyday with the Twins is that he was a novelty, and everyone knew it. 24-year-old guy with more in common physique-wise with a mechanic than a major league pitcher, never threw especially hard, moonlit as an Uber driver. This was not going to be a sustainable model for MLB success because the age of guys like this finding careers was over, even in 2019. If anything, they could be relief specialists or knuckleballers, but not starters for contending teams. Dobnak was a secret weapon of the bomba Twins team, sporting a 1.95 ERA in 9 appearances, lighting up September and propelling to the playoffs...where he would later be annihilated by both Yankee hitting and Yankee fans. 2020 was a relatively strong sophomore effort for Dobnak, he was reliable and went 6-4 in 10 starts. But after that, the material was never especially great, and even though the Twins kept him around, I'm assuming, for the benefits, the return never exactly happened. I saw him signing for people when I was at Twins camp in 2023, and that's how you know Twins fans take care of their own. Dobnak was basically a triple-A guy by that point and he still had guys lining up for an autograph. 

So...the prospect of a Randy Dobnak return was always gonna be a stretch for me. I figured he'd sung his song. He was in camp with the Mariners, looked good....yeah, good for you, but you're not breaking that rotation. If Kade Anderson can't break that rotation til August, you can't either. And then midway through July I noticed that the Royals had a new face in the WAR leaderboards, and then...it dawned on me. The Royals, without Cole Ragans or Stephen Kolek or Luinder Avila, needed rotation help, Dobnak was succeeding in Omaha, it was all they had. And Dobnak was...doing well? 

In 9 appearances for the 2026 Royals, Randy Dobnak, who is 31 and still not throwing especially hard, has a 1.58 ERA, a 2.1 WAR, and 29 strikeouts, which is a career high for him. He's also giving up a lot of walks, which has boosted his WHIP, but the dominance says enough honestly. Nobody has figured out how to hit this guy, and he's continuing to stifle genuinely good lineups with craftsmanship. Somehow, since his return last month, Dobnak has been the Royals' best pitcher.

Granted, this is happening during a lost season. Maikel Garcia's hurt again, and probably missing the rest of the season. Pasquatch, Witt, Caglianone and Isbel have all missed a substantial amount of time, and last place in the AL Central is basically theirs. This is a season that will likely result in Matt Quatraro's firing, a few months of Pujols speculation, and the crushing reality that this team still isn't all the way there. Dobnak is a temporary solution to a larger problem, the lack of roster stability and repeated injury beatdowns. The Royals fans are excited about Randy Dobnak because there's not a hell of a lot else to be excited about right now, and they know that Dobnak likely won't be a recurring thing. It'd be great if he continued this into next year like Rich Hill did, but...we all know what's the more probable outcome here.

For now, it's great that he's back, and it's great that he's winning games. Very positive MLB success story. I just wish there was more to say about the Royals this year.

Coming Tomorrow- He came up before Skenes, missed a year, and returned to honestly pick up a lot of Skenes' slack.

A Slight Adjustment

 

It's not exactly THE gutsiest of moves but it's something that's still kind of turning heads.

So C.J. Abrams is having the best season of his career in Washington, he's on the heels of what could be a 30-homer/100-RBI season, and there's a slight chance he's able to steal 6 more bases and make it 30-30 as well. Nasim Nuñez has been getting to play everyday, has a league-leading 40 steals and has been aiding the Nats as a speedy infield boost. Last week, the decision was made to switch the two defensively, meaning Nunez will play shortstop and Abrams will play 2nd. On paper this makes sense, as Abrams's defense at short wasn't great and he could use a change. But...they're also telling Abrams, in the midst of his best season to date, that he needs to move over. In the midst of a non-competitive year after it's been clear they're not a playoff team. And this is the same organization that suspended him for gambling and nearly traded him months earlier. So needless to say, Abrams isn't happy, and conveniently he's day to day with a minor injury. So, the Nats, once again potentially ruining a good thing. 

It shouldn't take away from Nunez having his best season yet, and stealing bases like it's his job. He's not really hitting all that much, as he's a .226 hitter with 34 RBIs in 117 games, but it's about getting him on base and watching him fly. I kinda wish there was more to him than that, and even James Wood and Jacob Young can steal bases while still remembering to hit. But hey, at least Nunez is good at something, and at least he's finding his niche on this team. You're also seeing the other pieces falling into place. Brady House is starting at third again and doing alright, with 9 homers and 31 RBIs in 65 games. Dylan Crews has 10 homers and 27 RBIs in 76 games. Abimelec Ortiz has burst onto the scene as a rookie corner infielder, and has 5 homers and 9 RBIs in 16 games. He could be a nice piece going forward. You're even seeing Harry Ford slowly creeping up to Keibert Ruiz, and beginning to figure out MLB hitting.

Again, frustratingly given the last few years, the rotation isn't as far along. Cade Cavalli and Andrew Alvarez have thankfully improved, with Cavalli going on a historic run and shaping up to sneak right into the 'best pitchers in the NL' conversation going forward. Jackson Kent has a lot of support behind him but two starts in and he may not be ready for the bigs. Beyond that...who knows? Openers? Trevor Williams getting to start again, which honestly isn't that bad of an idea? Jake Irvin trying his best despite being seriously cooked? The bullpen isn't much better, despite Clayton Beeter and P.J. Poulin's best efforts.

The Nats are nearly good, and nearly got something going this year, but seem to keep shooting themselves in the foot whenever it's about to get good. This Abrams thing, if he's actually mad, is the next stage of foolishness. He's already pissed off, the lockout might not help, I guess he might be traded soon, so there goes what you're trying to build I guess. I dunno, maybe this lineup without James Wood is reminding me just how bleak it might all be with the Nats.

Coming Tonight: Literally the last person I expected to make a custom of this year.

Tolle Boost

 

With a new CBA probably on the way, sometime after a settlement that will take far too long to be reached, there's always murmurs about a divisional realignment, which Rob Manfred wants to do but I don't think anybody else does. He always goes on like 'well, with the universal DH, the NL and AL are meaningless, and since all 30 teams play each other once a season, the divisional matchups mean less, so we can just put the Mets and Yankees in the same division because it's way easier that way', like...listen to yourself. You're tearing down things that work, and have worked, just to save time and money, and you're forgetting WHY they work. The Yankees and Mets being in separate divisions works because the rare times they do play each other feel special. That's also why an actual divisional matchup like Yanks-Sox can happen a ton of times per season, because it doesn't need to feel unique. Yanks-Sox is just normal stuff. Of course they're playing each other again, it's been a few weeks anyhow.

But the one argument in favor of divisional realignment is that some divisions are simply built better than others. The AL East this year, much like in other recent years, have three teams that have a better record than literally every other team in the AL. Nobody in the Central or West has a better record than the third place team in the AL East, and the last place team in the AL East has the same amount of wins has two teams fighting for a playoff spot in the AL Central. Conventional wisdom says you need to reshuffle. I don't necessarily agree, as I like that some divisions are better than others, but if you're a Red Sox fan you probably need things to change. Since the Yankees and Red Sox play each other less now, both teams can be good without one or the other suffering record-wise.

And so, while the Sox are still looking at a playoff spot, they've got this long road for something that should be more inevitable than it actually is. They've got more pieces than a lot of the great teams in other divisions, and have one of the best hitting performances in the game this season coming from Willson Contreras and his .927 OPS. But they still have to get through a wild card round that stopped them last year, despite a pretty decent team. And they've gotta do it with the possibility of there being no Masataka Yoshida, no Roman Anthony, no Trevor Story and no Garrett Crochet. 

Thankfully, Crochet's absence has not broken this team as much as you'd think, as they've survived well enough using their immediate starting options. Patrick Sandoval is the shakiest of everybody, he's got a 5 ERA in 7 starts, but he's not even that bad. Jake Bennett's improving, has a 1.066 WHIP and a 3.50 ERA. Ranger Suarez is sort of doing his usual thing, low ERA, not a lot of runs scored, same as in Philly. Sonny Gray's having a comeback season for the ages, with a league-leading 15 wins, a 2.65 ERA and 117 Ks. And then you've got Payton Tolle, a 23-year-old schtarker with the arsenal to fool everybody, who currently has a 3 ERA, 134 Ks and a 1.083 WHIP. He's not the fanciest pitcher here, but he works hard, gets people out and keeps things clean. I think the lack of a Crochet type will be obvious if he's out for the postseason run, but someone like Tolle will definitely help. Which is weird, because of him and Connelly Early I assumed Early would be the guy going forward, but evidently the Sox figured they didn't need him. Anyway, Curtis Mead's still injured. 

On that note, kinda weird that Jahmai Jones is more productive than any of the Sox's postseason pickups, including Adley Rutschman. 

The Sox have a surprisingly nice core, have used Andruw Monasterio, Anthony Seigler and Mickey Gasper in huge roles despite being replacement level, have gotten terrific seasons out of Contreras, Durbin, Rafaela and Abreu, and are keeping the momentum going for the most part despite a very precarious path to postseason glory. I think they could figure it out more than last year's team, but if they get the Yanks again it'll be another war of attrition, and I'm not wild about that.

Coming Tomorrow- Meanwhile, on the team they traded Early to, the league's base-stealing king gets a new everyday gig.