Predicting the Home Run Derby: 2022

 Yeah, still doing terrible predictions. It's like my brand at this point. 

The Home Run Derby is tonight. I always like watching that for a bit, it's a fun time, you get a lot of personality from the competitors, there's stories from year to year, and right now there's a 2 time champ trying to become a three-time champ. Last year's was pretty fun. This year's looks pretty fun too, with some great comeback players and some interesting inclusions. The matchups have been announced, and I'm gonna analyze them and try and predict how it's all gonna go. 

Albert Pujols v. Kyle Schwarber

Who Should Win: Well, like in the All-Star Game, Albert Pujols is here not for his 2022 merits but for his career merits, and so in the grand scheme of baseball it's probably gonna make more sense if Pujols wins.

Who Will Win: The guy with 29 homers at the first half will win. It'll be nice to see Albert though.

Juan Soto v. Jose Ramirez

Who Should Win: Juan Soto has more HRD experience and is looking to use this week as a showcase for teams to trade for him now that he's made it clear that he doesn't want to stay in Washington, so he's the perceived favorite.

Who Will Win: Jose Ramirez has been having the better season, and has more momentum...but Soto also used the HRD to get hot last year, so maybe he just thrives best in this situation. Uh...hell, I'm going Soto. I could be wrong, but I think he'll crack it here.

Pete Alonso v. Ronald Acuna

Who Should Win: Alonso has won two of these.

Who Will Win: As good as Acuna has been, and as strong as he can be in these, I just don't see Alonso letting up here. It'll be close, might go to sudden death, but Alonso takes it.

Corey Seager v. Julio Rodriguez

Who Should Win: Corey Seager has been very hot recently, and with more MLB experience, knows how to condition himself properly at the ASG break.

Who Will Win: ...but also Seager comes off like first-round fodder here, and Julio Rodriguez is looking incredible right now. I honestly think Julio will take it and do something insane like the rookies did in 2019.

Round Two: Soto v. Schwarber

Who Should Win: Juan Soto is Juan Soto and has more HRD experience

Who Will Win: I honestly don't think anybody will be able to stop Kyle Schwarber at this point in the season, and even if Soto goes on a roll here, of the two, Schwarber has more seasonal momentum. It'll be an upset to casual MLB fans, but I think Schwarber goes for it.

Alonso v. Rodriguez

Who Should Win: Alonso's having the better season, and, again, has won two of these.

Who Will Win: ....yeah, I'm calling an upset. Julio Rodriguez is gonna outhit Pete Alonso and nobody's gonna see it coming because they're gonna forget that rookies have done really well in the HRD lately. Alonso's gonna put up a lot, but he's gonna have to give up his crown this year.

Final Round: Rodriguez v. Schwarber

Who Should Win: Schwarber has more experience and the bigger power season.

Who Will Win: ...guys, it's gonna be Julio. I'm just gonna warn you, it could go some predictable ways, but I honestly think Julio Rodriguez is gonna take this whole thing. Everything he's been doing lately has been giving me the idea that he's just got the momentum for it right now. And the M's are coming off a big streak, mostly thanks in part to him. Schwarber's gonna try his best, but I feel like me predicting Schwarber to win it is just wishful thinking.

So yeah, I'm picking Julio. Whatever, I'm not putting money on it, let's be ballsy.