Last year, in the absence of veteran arms, the Cleveland Guardians developed an all-rookie rotation that somehow worked out better than the initial one did. Tanner Bibee, Gavin Williams, Logan Allen and Xzavion Curry, with occasional assistance from a healthy Shane Bieber or a visiting Lucas Giolito or Noah Syndergaard, held things down for the Tribe last year, and instilled confidence that once the veteran arms would leave, things would be alright. Though only Quantrill left in the offseason, despite a plot to deal Bieber occasionally surfacing, the Guardians' rotation options looked vast and mighty heading into the season.
So far there's only been one rotation setback, as Gavin Williams will be missing time this year, alongside some bullpen members who also got hurt. The silver lining of that is that before Williams was scratched, he was honestly looking really good, striking out 9 in 4.2 innings, and it looks to only be elbow soreness. Everybody else seems to be themselves, though Tanner Bibee's early starts have been worrying. All of Curry, Allen and Bieber have looked sharp so far.
Most impressively, after a pair of injury-plagued seasons, Triston McKenzie's looking like his old self. So far he hasn't given up any runs, and is striking out batters like he did during his rookie year. Triston McKenzie I see as the Mike Clevinger type in this situation; he's not the youngest piece in this rotation anymore, but if he succeeds he could be the most crucial piece. He's the bridge between Bieber's vet status and Allen and Williams' greenness, and if he has a good season that's definitely something the team can build on.
But McKenzie's strong starts do raise some questions, like...how youth-based is this rotation going to be this year? Not only will Bieber and McKenzie be back, but Carlos Carrasco, in camp on a NRI contract, has an outside chance of making the team. It's not...a 100% guarantee, especially considering that it's a 7 man race for 5 spots at the moment, but there is a chance that Stephen Vogt goes with a veteran emphasis rather than leading with Logan Allen, Tanner Bibee and Xzavion Curry right off the bat. It's not exactly unheard of for Curry to start in the 'pen, do long-man work and eventually work his way up to starting. And while Allen [and Williams] has been excellent out of camp, you never know if that'll be the deciding factor for Vogt to start the year. There's also Ben Lively kicking around after his decent 2023 numbers with Cincinnati, and while he's a long shot for the rotation, like Carrasco he's not exactly out of the race.
So now the Guardians have to figure out what tactic they want to go with, or with lining the kids up behind Bieber is still a winning tactic. I think they should be fine this year if they let the kids play, especially considering they'll be getting Williams back eventually, but there's more factors at play than you might think given last year's success.
Still, I expect Cleveland to do better this year, and possibly contend. I do expect the Twins and Tigers to be tough to manage down the stretch, and it's not exactly a certainty as it has been in the past. But hey, this is the exact kind of Guardians team that could overperform.
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