Busch vs. Miller

 

Earlier today, I was talking about the fall of the Tigers, and how they're in danger of someone like the Guardians catching up to them. The Cubs, like the Tigers, have gone through the majority of this season without major competition. The Cardinals did threaten to for a little, but eventually arc'd back down. Same with the Reds.

However...right now the Cubs are in the most danger of being lapped that they've had all season. And it's a familiar time for the Cubs to lose momentum. It's happened around July and August the last couple years. And it's not as if the Cubs have really lost that much momentum. They're still 62-43, and are consistent enough to stay well above .500. The majority of the pieces that made this team a league talent, like Pete Crow-Armstrong, Matthew Boyd, Nico Hoerner, Kyle Tucker and Michael Busch, are still having great seasons and have shown no signs of slowing down. 

The issue...is not that the Cubs haven't been good. But since mid-June, the Brewers have been better.

Since June 19th, the Brewers have only lost 8 games. In that time period they had two four-game winning streaks and an 11-game winning streak. They got Brandon Woodruff back, doubled down on the Miz, committed to Quinn Priester and Chad Patrick, slid in Andrew Vaughn to cover for Rhys Hoskins [which has somehow worked perfectly], and are now riding a wonderful Jackson Chourio hitting streak. Even if the Cubs did...marginally better than they've been doing, I don't know if they'd top this Brewers run. It's been pretty fantastic. And ultimately, it is once again the central Craig Counsell conundrum of 'does he get further by simply staying where he was?'

I do think the Cubs have enough that they can still contend with Milwaukee, especially as they face off this week for the division. Michael Busch, after breaking out last year, has managed some surprising staying power in Chicago, and has become a really cool corner infield piece. He's got 20 homers and 60 RBIs, and he's hitting .275. Meanwhile, PCA is just three homers and a steal away from his first 30-30 season, and the season's young enough that he could theoretically try for 40-40. Matthew Boyd has been a worthy presence in the absence of Justin Steele, and while he's been inconsistent this year, Ben Brown has been capable of some excellent stuff. And recently Matt Shaw has been heating up, as since the ASG break he's been hitting .444 with 10 RBIs and 4 homers. 

There's enough going on with this team, all throughout, that I don't see the drop-off that happened the last few years happening here. This is a better team, and a team I see breaking through the playoff threshold. The trouble is the Brewers are also looking like a playoff team, and while the Cubs want to break their drought, the Brewers want to win a playoff series for the first time in years. So it's gonna be very bloodthirsty down the stretch.

Coming Tomorrow- A well-respected catcher for a first place team that's also trying to stay afloat. This one I feel a lot less bad for.