Thursday, September 4, 2025

Don't Knock the Sample Size

 


For a career that, after 2015, could have ostensibly ended without harming his HOF case, Clayton Kershaw's full numbers are still extremely fascinating. His last full season without missing a start was 10 years ago, and since then he's been limited by yearly injuries and strains. Yet he's never been terrible, and is still insanely reliable even in what was hinted [by Rob Manfred] to be his last season. 

Compare that to several of his contemporaries. Right now Justin Verlander and Max Scherzer are rounding out their careers with lesser efforts. Scherzer is fine but flawed in a starting role in Toronto, Verlander has the occasional dominant start but has a high ERA in SF. Even Zack Greinke finished his career with an underwhelming year in KC a couple years ago. Retiring on top seems to be an outdated approach, the kind people like Sandy Koufax or Mike Mussina or Roy Halladay would do. JV has Kate Upton to come home to, and here he is pitching every six days. I sure hope she doesn't get a call from Gisele Bundchen's lawyer. More people honestly just don't know themselves if they're not throwing, even if it means they're missing time or not at full capacity sometimes. If someone offered Rich Hill a contract right now, he'd take it. Sometimes you just have to keep at it.

And so Clayton Kershaw, at 37, is coming to a year which, in theory, would be a good one to hang it up after. He did start the season late, but since he got here he's been terrific, with a 9-2 record, a 3.28 ERA, and 61 Ks in 18 starts. He's not the workhorse he was in the early 2010s, but he's capable of gems, and he's been taking the heavier workload like a champ. Looking at his 2020s stats so far, he's missed the odd game, but he's still been consistent when healthy. 2022 and 2023 were both all-star years for Kershaw, with ERAs under 2.50. Even in the pandemic-shortened 2020 season he got some Cy Young votes for some excellent consistency on the way to a World Series ring. Last year was a rare mar on the record, with a 4.50 ERA in only 7 starts, but the fact that he's back and dominant again this year, and looking to be a postseason starter as well, says a lot about his inherent talent. Even in injury-plagued years, no one will be able to take that away from him.

Kershaw's surge is a nice presence in this period of the Dodgers' season, which...if you wanna know how well they're doing, they just lost 2 to the Pirates and with Skenes on the mound they're in danger of losing a third. Their next two series' are against last place teams, Baltimore and Colorado, and with Ohtani missing games, Will Smith out for a week and Tanner Scott now falling apart, it's not looking as surefire as you'd think. I think the playoffs are still a certainty, and with this team's talent it'd be hard to not think this, but the division is becoming less and less of a definite considering how strong the Padres have stayed. It's gonna take more than just Kershaw to secure the inevitable, and with Snell, Glasnow and Ohtani healthy, for the moment, the contracts are gonna need to lead somewhere.

Coming Tomorrow- Last year he made a lot of people think his early-2020s hot streak was coming to an end. As his team looks to take a highly contested division, he proves 'em all wrong.

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