Storytime for any long time readers of the blog, and for those of you asking, yes, apparently this thing has longtime readers that didn't originate in a processing plant in Singapore.
Back in 2014, I was a freshman in college, and was still trying to make an attempt to follow baseball while also taking on multiple freshman classes, the expectation of a social life and various other ill-fated desires of an eighteen-year-old without much self-awareness. I've written off a lot of the blog's content before 2014, and I've also kinda written off some of its content during that freshman year, because my mind was so many other places.
Which is why in September of 2014, I wrote a post, which I since deleted, about how the Baltimore Orioles, with a genuinely great team led by prime Manny Machado, prime Adam Jones and Chris Davis before he fell off a cliff, didn't deserve to be in first place, and the Yankees, with its contractual bloat and flux between eras under Girardi, did. I had the guise of someone coping with the fact that Jacoby Ellsbury, post-Braves Brian McCann and end of career Hiroki Kuroda weren't getting anyone a championship, and I was taking it out on the Orioles because I couldn't see why they were better. They just were. They nearly got to a World Series that year. And I had a handful of people telling me that I was wrong for saying the Orioles were only in 1st place 'by default', which I was. The Orioles earned it, the Yanks weren't there yet, it was obvious even then.
Why do I bring this up? Because knowing how damaging it can be to say that a team is in first place by default despite all of the effort put in to make that possible, it is my genuine opinion that the Houston Astros are only in first place right now because nobody is currently good enough to knock them off. It's not that they're better than the Mariners or Rangers. They're just better at winning when those other teams lose. It's not effort, it's luck.
The Astros have not had the team, and have had so many harbingers that the end is nigh. Jose Altuve is firmly past his prime, and like the team's other RBI/HR leader Christian Walker, he's not moving things forward statistically. Jason Alexander is having to start games, and the Astros are insanely lucky his ERA's below 4. Bryan Abreu is covering the ninth for Josh Hader, and you can tell it's not his preference. Alvarez and Meyers are trying to make up for lost time but it's slower than expected.
Most of all, Carlos Correa has plugged into third base in place of Isaac Paredes, and it's a clear attempt to bring Astros fans back to 2017. The glory days are back, here's the old shortstop hero, look at him go. Correa is definitely a step up from where he was in Houston, he's hitting .305 with 4 homers and 16 RBIs, but...he's not really producing. He's a liability on fantasy because he barely scores you points. And he's only slightly above average statistically, a far cry from where he was. Correa is giving this team name recognition without giving it a surefire answer, a bandaid on an amputation.
And so the Astros stay in first, despite dropping games to the Angels and Yankees. The Mariners, as discussed, have blown so many opportunities to inch up to the Astros in the standings, and it's really up to the Rangers now, as they have more matches against Houston this month. And I'm not even sure if the Rangers are even good enough to make that happen this year, despite the strides they've made in the past month. If anyone in this scrum has the best team, it's the Mariners, it just doesn't do what it's supposed to. So here we are, with two inferior teams battling it out for a division title because the Mariners have the worst luck in the last third of the season.
The Astros have some very good elements this year, like Jeremy Pena and Hunter Brown. It's not a full team effort. It's not a World Series team, and if they get there it'll be through the same annoying luck [or even cheating] that's gotten them there in years past.
So there. The Astros are currently in first by default. If the Mariners or Rangers take 1st from them it'll be well deserved. Send any and all hate mail to rmanfred(at)mlb(dot)com
Coming Tonight: He had a blazing start with the Orioles, then carried that over to even more damage with San Diego.
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