Too Close to Call

 

I remember when the Tigers had a rough stretch in July, as the Guardians sort of approached them in the standings with a parallel streak, and the Tigers were able to get out of it, and I myself thought 'well that was the one moment this year they've really had to prove themselves'. Because the Tigers have been one of the league's alphas since the very beginning of the year, completely flipping from their 2024 'surprise wild card threat' moment. They were a 1st place team early, kept it despite that losing streak, and retook the lead and rolled through August.

And yet....here we are again. Only it's way more crucial.

The Tigers have blown 8 of their last 9 games, including three to Cleveland. The Guardians, meanwhile, are in the midst of a 10 game winning streak, and are 18-4 in September. These Guardians teams are very good at finding ways to catch fire without a great deal to work with, and this team is no exception. Right now, the Guardians are simply playing better baseball than the Tigers, and it's enough to, potentially, completely derail the narrative of the entire season. 

Yet I think I like this better than a complete steamrolling.

We've really only had one division where it's been an out-and-out runaway, and even then the Cubs are a good enough team that they're still a playoff favorite despite the Brewers being heads-and-shoulders ahead of them for the division. Every other division has been tight. The AL West just got flipped in dramatic fashion. The NL West still isn't a foregone conclusion. The AL East still has time to get close. And if this had been a simple 'well nobody could catch the Tigers' thing, that wouldn't have been as fun. The White Sox had one of those a few years ago, and they couldn't do much with it in October. Sometimes competition makes you a better long-term threat, or it illuminates your flaws.

So now we're seeing a lot more flaws in this Tigers team. You really can't trust Jack Flaherty as much as you could last fall, and he leads the league in losses with 14. Beyond Skubal and Mize, the lack of depth this rotation has is kind of infuriating, as Charlie Morton needs to be trotted out there every 5 games due to lack of options, and this isn't peak June Charlie Morton. Riley Greene isn't hitting, and he's looking to lead the league in strikeouts. Baez has sort of reverted to his old Tigers self. The stronghold has dissolved a bit. Not that the spark could still appear, but there's a desperation that was not there before.

The Guardians, however, have turned desperation into opportunity. What was once a very messy rotation now has roles for excellent performers like Parker Messick, Slade Cecconi and Joey Cantillo. Cantillo's been excellent since coming back, with a 2.44 ERA and 41 Ks in 8 starts. We knew last fall that he was capable of greatness, he just needed the opportunity. In a weird way, the Guardians' rotation sort of fulfilled a lot of promises, because Tanner Bibee and Gavin Williams did, in fact, make all their starts. Granted, they weren't all gems, but those two integral pieces stayed healthy. Thus, this 6-man September schematic of Bibee-Williams-Allen-Cecconi-Cantillo-Messick is truly effective, and leads to a lot of possibilities if October happens.

Still, one game separates the Tigers from the Guardians. Even if they're able to stave Cleveland off, it's a very crucial moment in a season they once thought was destined for greatness. And even if this coup doesn't happen for the Guardians, I'd also be fine with them taking the Astros' playoff spot. Just as satisfying honestly.

Coming Tonight: The Red Sox did not know what to do with him, so they let him go. And of course the guys that pick him up turn him into one of the most crucial starters of the season.