A couple weeks ago, I wrote one of these on the Reds, essentially saying 'obviously the team could crater without Elly de la Cruz, they need to prevent that'. And barring two big wins against the Yankees, they really haven't.
I got to watch these guys in the Bronx friday night, the one game they lost out of the series, and I saw a team that looked kinda lost. Rhett Lowder was starting, and he's more of a leverage guy than I previously figured. Not a whiffer, at least not anymore. And while his placement was overall pretty strong, on a couple of occasions he put it in the wrong spot and somebody, like Jazz Chisholm or Ben Rice, took advantage. Lowder's also one of those 'don't overthrow or out for ages' kinda guys, so it's a treacherous game to play. The lineup itself, without Elly, felt listless. They've got guys who can hit, like J.J. Bleday or Sal Stewart, but against the Yanks' pitching that night they really couldn't. The heart of that lineup is guys like Tyler Stephenson, Matt McLain, Spencer Steer and Nate Lowe who are...fine, but...not over the top great. They had Edwin Arroyo in for Elly that night, and...yeah, very replacement level. And the bullpen contains guys like Caleb Ferguson or Zach Maxwell, a guy who throws absolute smoke and has no control over it.
And the things that are working are just kinda weird. Like they have Blake Dunn up right now, and Dunn's one of those guys that's just struggled to find success in the majors, to the point where I always confused him with Oliver Dunn, a Brewers guy who had a similar track record. But Dunn's been excellent covering for T.J. Friedl, and he's hitting .272 with 37 hits in 36 games. Far and away the best hitter in the Elly-less stretch, though Stewart had some bombs in that run too. Bleday is kinda already in this category, I wrote him off after last season and now he's a mainstay yet again. Even Andrew Abbott's having a comparatively strange season, because it started with a lot of rough starts and run bleeding....but by and large he's honestly having a fine year. 3.83 ERA, 5-4 record, 1.8 WAR. He's definitely improved over time, and the Yanks start helped. I think I'm just surprised he's not 2025-good, but it's better than getting hurt, like most Reds pitchers after a strong season. Like you can see that Lodolo and Singer are fried from what they did while healthy last year and look a little strung out. Same with Pagan honestly. So it's very nice that Abbott and Burns are holding up alright.
Still, everything you've heard from the Reds so far this week has been 'look how badly the Brewers' pitching is feasting on them'. First Woodruff has a 1-hit dominant start. Then the other Brandon, Brandon Sproat, has a 1-hit dominant start. They had Shane Drohan tonight, and to be fair he's given up a few more hits, but it is going similarly, otherwise, as I write this. So even with Elly back, that's still the narrative. The Reds are a last place team in a tough division not delivering on the promises of the 2025 season, and waterlogged by injuries and inefficiency despite two genuine starmaking performances. Occasionally you get a cool nugget, like Julian Garcia finally making it to the bigs, but right now that's all they're good for.
Then again...who knows what'll happen when Hunter Greene comes back.
Coming Tomorrow- The Astros have a lot of frayed or vacant pieces this year...but they still have Yordan Alvarez and this guy.
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