Uncustomed Heroes of 2024: Cubs

 

I think what 2024 proved for the Cubs is that the next level, which is competition and playoff advancement, cannot be reached until the last of the baby teeth have come out. What was holding back the new, intimidating, explosive version of this Cubs team were some of the dispatches from its 2021-2022 era of tanking. Once those aren't weighing the team back, they can actually make moves to outlast the Brewers, Cardinals and Reds next year. 

One of those big pieces of dead weight, sadly, was the last remaining member of the 2016 World Series team, respected ace Kyle Hendricks. Hendricks...had a weird season. He began with a 10.57 ERA, and an 0-4 record. Hendricks had struggled before, but this was painful, and moving him to the bullpen was really the only choice the Cubs had. Then, amazingly, Hendricks rebounded. In his next ten games, Hendricks had a 3.86 ERA, culminating in a return to the rotation. Whatever he was struggling with, he seemed to get the hang of. And then, of course, he struggled again as the season went on, ending with a 5.92 ERA. But, crucially, his last start for the Cubs was a true gem. He went 8 innings against the Reds and allowed 2 hits and no runs. For what is likely Hendricks' last start at Wrigley in blue, he left the fans satisfied.

2025 Prediction: For the Angels, Hendricks will be decent, with some shades of his Cubs numbers, but more akin to Tim Lincecum's stint there.

The other piece of dead weight that needed to go was Patrick Wisdom. Wisdom was the one piece that remained after the 2021 purge, and his early work laid the basis for a nice few years as a power bat. Unfortunately, the magic has worn off, and Wisdom is now a below-average power bat with no infield perks. In 75 games he hit .171 with 8 homers, as his position was deemed null by Isaac Paredes. Unsurprisingly, the Cubs non-tendered him last month. What else was he really capable of contributing at this point?

2025 Prediction: Serviceable bench bat for somebody dangerous. I say Tampa.

The Yan Gomes experiment wore off in 2024, meaning the starting position finally belonged to Miguel Amaya, who'd been waiting for a couple years. Amaya is a solid defensive catcher with the occasional offensive perk. As a starter, he made for a definite upgrade, with a 1.7 WAR, 47 RBIs and 8 homers in 117 games. The Cubs need someone like Amaya, just a steady, trustworthy catcher who doesn't need to be the center of attention, and can just keep pumping. 

2025 Prediction: Wins a gold glove. Or at least is up for one.

It was a headline-causing incident earlier in the year when the Mets unceremoniously cut Jorge Lopez after throwing a tantrum after a game and proclaiming the Mets 'the worst team in the MLB', not knowing that without him they'd get to an NLCS. But the Cubs, never averse to a bargain, capitalized on this by bringing Lopez on in a crucial relief role. As good as Lopez was in Queens, he may have been better in Chicago; in 24 games, Lopez had a 2.03 ERA with 31 strikeouts. This was Lopez's most wired-in, confident season in years, and hopefully wherever he ends up in 2025 will be a better fit than the Mets.

2025 Prediction: I mean, the Mets ARE looking for bullpen help. Lol. Honestly, it wouldn't shock me if somebody like Kansas City or Minnesota brings him back, they both need guys like him.

The Cubs' initial closing man, Adbert Alzolay, struggled with injuries all year. Their eventual next pick, Hector Neris, squandered the opportunity by being reminded of how terrible he is in the ninth. And so it was up to rookie Porter Hodge, already having an excellent season in relief, to take the closing job next. I think the Cubs may have an answer; Hodge got the closing job late in August, and was responsible for 7 saves to end the year, including polishing off Kyle Hendricks' 8-inning shutout to end his Cubs tenure. Hodge was also the reliever that closed the door on Shota Imanaga's no-hit bid in September. Hodge is young, efficient and confident, and he could be a strong closing option for the Cubs going forward.

2025 Prediction: It really is a question of how much the Cubs trust Hodge at this point, because they could very easily get a Kenley Jansen or somebody to take the ninth. I think they do give it to him, and while I don't think he'll get to 40 saves immediately, I think he'll make them proud.

After doing nothing with the Marlins, Christian Bethancourt found himself a free agent, around the time the Cubs were phasing out of Yan Gomes. They were ultimately a perfect match for each other, and Bethancourt returned to his 2022-era surprise dominance. In 24 games, he hit .281 with 15 RBIs and 4 homers, culminating in a wild .814 OPS. 

2025 Prediction: Doesn't do that again. That only shows up when teams aren't expecting it to. Still, that's not gonna stop somebody from taking him on as a backup next year.

The Cubs' big trade of the year was nabbing Isaac Paredes in exchange for Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson. Paredes in Chicago was...fine. Nothing especially noteworthy or anything, which is kind of surprising for the guy who was supposed to lead them to the postseason. Paredes hit .223 in 52 games, only hitting 3 home runs and 25 RBIs. For contrast, he hit 16 homers and 55 RBIs in 101 games with the Rays. This wasn't the most opportune time for the learning curve to kick in.

2025 Prediction: I think letting him train with the Cubs from the start will be better for him, and he'll have a full year closer to his Tampa standards.

Very late in the season, the Cubs let the fans look into the future by bringing up prospect Kevin Alcantara. It's clear that not all of the Cubs' big prospects have worked lately, as Matt Mervis, Jordan Wicks and Alexander Canario haven't found their footing in the majors yet. Pete Crow Armstrong only got there recently, and his bat still has a-ways to go. So Alcantara was expected to, at the very least, get his feet wet and do one or two cool things. And that's kinda what happened. In 3 games he had 10 at-bats, 1 hit. Decent in the outfield, no immediate signs of anything else. Not sure when the next look at him will be, considering how set the Cubs' OF might be next year [it's Bellinger-Happ-Suzuki, with PCA backing up til Bellinger leaves], but he's definitely in the picture.

2025 Prediction: ...yeah, that IS a crowded OF picture, even with Canario there as well. If somebody is gonna get dealt this season, it might be Alcantara. 

Coming Tomorrow- The Diamondbacks were inches from the playoffs and couldn't make it. A few reasons why they should have.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2022: Twins

 

The Twins have done the '1st place team falls apart and doesn't make the playoffs' thing as recently as 2017. The Twins have done the 'Byron Buxton gets injured and the team shutters without him' thing as recently as last year. And the Twins have done the 'finishes low in a tight race but still doesn't make the playoffs' thing as recently as 2018. 

The Minnesota Twins by the halfway point were playoff favorites, and by the end of the season they were in third behind the exactly .500 White Sox. What a fall. It's not that it was a bad year, as Luis Arraez had an incredible year, and so many young pieces came alive. But two of the team's top 4 performers, Carlos Correa and Gio Urshela, will not be on the team as they suit up in...underwhelmingly-designed new uniforms.

Nick Gordon, after years of bubbling up, finally got a full year to showcase his skills in Minneapolis, and the 26-year-old hit .272 with 110 hits, 50 RBIs and 9 homers. Gordon seems to be a bit more versatile than his older brother [who bowed out with Washington this year], and can be useful as a power hitter, a contact hitter, an outfield bat and a speedster. And, as another one-up on Dee, he's not on any illegal substances.

2023 Prediction: Another full year, some more great production, and perhaps a nice extension of some sort?

Trevor Larnach, like Buxton, was excellent when he was healthy but bowed out too soon to aid the team down the stretch. In 51 games, Larnach hit .231 with 37 hits, 18 RBIs and 5 homers. The goal is for him to be more useful over the course of a full year, but we've never seen such a year from him so far.

2023 Prediction:  Kepler hasn't gone yet, but I reckon he will at some point, after which Larnach will get a ton more reps and a ton more eyes on him. I think he'll notch 20 home runs at least.

Several Twins starters this year fell into the category of 'how the mighty have fallen'. Dylan Bundy was a strikeout artist in his prime, and was a phenom for LA as recently as 2020. However, he struggled mightily last year, and this year he tried his damndest to not rely on throwing hard as much as he had. Bundy started all 29 games, and had a 4.89 ERA, an 8-8 record and 94 strikeouts. An improvement over 2021, but a pretty boilerplate year overall.

2023 Prediction: Minor league deal, maybe a few MLB starts, but the big stuff might be over for this guy.

Similarly, Chris Archer was an absolute stud for the Rays before he lost his footing and never picked it up again. He'd done well in Tampa last year with more control, but his hard stuff is sorely missed. This year with the Twins, Archer, had a 4.56 ERA, 8 losses and 84 Ks in 25 starts. Yes, fuller season than usual, but like with Bundy, the edge is gone.

2023 Prediction: I hate to say it, but I don't think anyone comes calling. Maybe he tries the international leagues.

Bailey Ober starts were fleeting this year due to both call-ups and injury, but he made the most of them, with a 3.21 ERA and 51 Ks spread across 11 starts. Ober is young, reliable, and coming into his own, and if the Twins' rotation wasn't so crowded in 2022, he could have proved it.

2023 Prediction: Thankfully the rotation will be a lot sparser next year, so he'll get 28 starts and be a top arm for this team.

The injuries got so bad at one point that the Twins called upon Voorhees, NJ product Devin Smeltzer, who they'd flirted with giving some starts to in 2019, for some integral starts. Smeltzer outdid expectations, with a 5-2 record, a 3.71 ERA and 40 Ks over 70 innings. Once some more arms got activated and dealt for, Smeltzer's role diminished, and after the year he was cut to make room for...somebody.

2023 Prediction: I really, really hope someone picks him up. You always want local kids to succeed, and he's pretty sharp.

Royce Lewis was the Twins first overall pick in 2017, and it's taken him this long, thanks to injuries and such, to make it to the majors. Ironically, his first ever MLB season was halted in its tracks by another injury, but until then he was actually doing pretty well for the Twins, hitting .300 with 5 RBIs and 2 homers in 12 games. 

2023 Prediction: Correa and Urshela are both gone, Farmer will get one infield position...maybe Lewis tries at another one, and plays more than 12 games this year.

As for the trade deadline deals, the Twins got saddled with some bad luck. Tyler Mahle was a great piece for them, as he'd been stellar in Cincinnati. Mahle only got 4 Twins starts, with a 4.41 ERA and a 1-1 record, before he was injured for the majority of the season. Meanwhile, Spencer Steer, who he was traded for, got some playing time in Cincinnati. 

2023 Prediction: My thinking is he stays healthy and pitches well enough for his own good, but not enough to make much of a difference.

Then, after a phenomenal year in the bullpen for the Orioles, Jorge Lopez landed in Minneapolis with the closing job basically his. The only thing that could stop Lopez was a third party getting in the way, and that's ultimately what Jhoan Duran did, though Lopez' 4.37 ERA and 2 blown saves didn't help either. Lopez filled in as a decent middleman, but was nowhere as dominant as he was in Baltimore.

2023 Prediction: An improvement, but I don't think he'll be used in the ninth as much as he was.

Tomorrow, more about that 81-81 White Sox team.