...And Expecting a Different Result

 For the past two seasons, the Chicago Cubs and Pittsburgh Pirates have flirted, in fleeting moments, with legitimacy, and have yet to actually capitalize on it. While the window isn't exactly closing for either team, this may be their most crucial season yet to compete. The Brewers, as good as they were last season, aren't exactly a shoo-in for 1st, and may have to sweat it out like everyone else [rather than just waltzing to first like the Dodgers likely will]. The Cardinals may still be bottom-feeding, the Reds may be another year or so away, it's all kind of up in the air. And it may not be for long.

The Cubs have come the closest to actually competing, and for the past two seasons have finished second with an 83-79 record. Just a dash above .500, just a smidge away from a wild card spot. Same record and everything, two years running. And this is the Cubs in the Bellinger era, the team that can sign talent and piece together a competent lineup but still isn't all the way there yet. Clearly changes needed to be made. I didn't think one of them would be 'trading Cody Bellinger for a Triple-A pitcher' but here we are.

Miraculously, the Cubs still managed to attract strong upgrades this season, like Kyle Tucker, Matthew Boyd, Colin Rea, Ryan Pressly and, honestly by accident, Ryan Brasier. Even with the probability of a rookie like Matt Shaw or Gage Workman nabbing an infield spot as Nico Hoerner heals up, this is a pretty great looking lineup, and it might have the most potential production of anyone in the NL Central. Swanson, PCA, Tucker, Happ and Amaya all look primed for great years. The rotation, which, for the first time in 10 years won't have Kyle Hendricks in it, also looks pretty well rounded. The goal is to get a more 2023-esque year out of Justin Steele, who took a good couple months to get there last year. Steele has looked pretty good this spring, as have most of the rotation so far. It's also reassuring having Ben Brown as a pretty strong depth starter if things go south.

But again, there's no telling how this team will fail to meet expectations as well. Who'll go cold at the wrong time, who'll just refuse to play well. Ideally this doesn't happen, but it just keeps tending to, and so I'm kinda prepared for it. 

The Pirates, meanwhile, have had collapses that are far sharper, and arguably funnier. The Pirates began the 2023 season as one of the best teams in baseball, and had a terrific record in April. And then the schedule evened out and they sort of gelled into their mediocrity. Last year the Pirates were at .500 at the All-Star Break, and with Paul Skenes, Bryan Reynolds and Oneil Cruz all having terrific seasons, it looked like they had a chance, even becoming buyers at the deadline. But their torrid August and even more pathetic September led them to a last place finish. It looked avoidable, and yet it still happened. 

This is very much a sign of the Bob Nutting teams, circumstances that seem advantageous that don't seem to work as well as before. The Pirates still have Isiah Kiner-Falefa from that competitive week, and while he does look to factor into this season at short, there's a ton of young competition throughout the infield, guys like Billy Cook, Nick Yorke and Enmanuel Valdez. Even Jared Triolo has been designated the professional utility man, and Spencer Horwitz seems to have taken 1st from him. IKF is looking to at least have a decent year, but even he might be in danger of a midseason trade if the youth progresses otherwise. 

Ultimately, even if the lineup has a few too many question marks, the rotation looks great. Skenes and Jones at the top, Falter and Heaney in low positions, and Mitch Keller still steadily providing strong work even if the stats don't always show it. Keller, despite the higher ERA, still made all his starts last season and still notched 166 strikeouts. This will somehow be his age-29 season, and hopefully the team will give him a firmer backing before his prime years end. I think he's gotta be thankful he's no longer the ace thanks to Skenes, but he still has a lot of responsibility in this rotation, and I think he still has time to capitalize.

The Cubs have the best put-together team, but the Pirates have a chance of surprising people and becoming a fun team down the stretch, a lot like the Tigers last year. If the NL Central shifts this year in favor of one of these guys, I think I'll honestly be here for it. 

Steele and Glass

 

So here's what's absolutely wild to me.

The NL Central race has looped and twisted so many times this season, without ever making it a surprise who's gonna end up in first. The Brewers are winning the division, we know this. But the saga to crown even ONE wild card team from this division has been ridiculous. I think virtually every single team in this division has had a turn at first, and all of them have had a turn at last. These teams have bobbed around like nobody, all for the opportunity to potentially edge out the Braves, Mets or Padres for a wild card spot. 

And the strange part, to me, is that the Cubs, who at one point absolutely bottomed out and laid there with virtually no shot, are basically the only NL Central team left with a shot at the wild card.

And it's not a 'by default' thing. The Cardinals, Reds and Pirates have all slowed down recently, to horrifying degrees, but it's not like the Cubs have just...stayed put. They've advanced. The Cubs are 15-13 since the ASG break, and they're 23-18 since July began. This run included huge wins against the Orioles, Cardinals, Royals and Twins, and opportunities for their big stars to come back into their own. 

I put it this way. The Cubs season bungeed and recoiled in the same time it took Justin Steele to get injured, come back, struggle and then click again. Steele is not fully at 2023 levels of excellence, and some early season starts took away from that, but he's still got a 3.10 ERA and 115 Ks in 20 starts. And that's really the thing about this rotation, there's a lot of people who've ebbed and flowed and it's really only now that they're all kind of hitting at once. Imanaga's back to a more consistent pace, only giving up 4 or less runs the last 5 starts. Hendricks has found the knack again and he's slowly getting his ERA back down. Assad is pretty much the only guy who's just been this consistent all year, and he's probably even better now than he was near the start. It's really only Taillon who's struggled lately, so having those four in great shape is at least a great ratio. 

Pretty much everything has finally fallen into place for this Cubs team. Swanson and Bellinger are back, and showing signs of productivity. Suzuki's hitting again and feeling like the guy the Cubs wanted all those years ago. PCA is very much Volpe in 2023, not offensively clicking yet but defensively incredible. All the new additions to the bullpen have turned the narrative around, and now that there's no longer a need for Hector Neris all involved parties can breathe easier. I think the issue for me is that there's no central offensive figure. Like the closest is Ian Happ but he's...fine, not blowing the doors off the place. Hoerner, Bellinger, now Paredes just haven't been that guy. But maybe they will.

The Cubs have the opportunity to push forward and land in the conversation again. I sincerely hope they take advantage of it before the division flips again.

Coming Tomorrow- I didn't think the A's could do 'defense-friendly infield specialist' at this stage of the rebuild, but here we are.

Steele Wheels

 

I will give the Cubs this, even keeping their 2021 obliteration in mind: In the carryover from the end of the 2021 season til right now, the Cubs have found young, mostly homegrown players that were good for them when they needed to build, and have continued to be good as the team has built. Justin Steele, Nico Hoerner, Keegan Thompson and Ian Happ have stuck with this team as they've strengthened with more free agents, and they're all as good now as they were a few years ago.

And that's honestly what you want. The Cubs couldn't win it all in 2016 without Bryant, Baez, Hendricks, Contreras and Schwarber coming up and staying good. And look, this current incarnation can do whatever they want with Jameson Taillon and Marcus Stroman, both doing relatively well so far, but I genuinely think that Justin Steele is that homegrown lynchpin that is keeping this rotation together. Steele's 2-0 so far, has 19 Ks and a 1.42 ERA. Stroman may be a bit showier, but now in his second full season and he's the most consistent, consistent and reliable option the Cubs have. 

I kinda hate that Kyle Hendricks isn't as reliable as he was, or that Marcus Stroman still has the occasional messy start that needs to be mopped up, but...if they can build off of someone like Steele, especially keeping people like Hayden Wesneski, Javier Assad and Caleb Kilian in mind, they could be in good shape.

That's how the lineup has been working with people like Happ, Hoerner and Patrick Wisdom. Now that Swanson, Mancini and Hosmer are in town, Wisdom isn't as relied-upon for power hitting, and while Wisdom does have 5 homers at the moment, his contact struggles aren't as jarring. I mean, Hosmer and Mancini aren't exactly hitting for contact either but, regardless, it doesn't stand out as much. Swanson and Hoerner as a battery has worked insanely well, and Bellinger is honestly beginning to heat up a little. I'd give Seiya Suzuki another week or so to catch up but I think he's ready for a crucial full-season effort. And honestly, Yan Gomes hasn't been the worst as the starting catching option, though I find it funny that former-gold-glover Tucker Barnhart is better than him offensively right now but not defensively.

As flawed as this Cubs team is, I can see promise. Upping both the power hitters and the innings-eaters was a good depth move, and I think they'll be a lot closer to breaking .500 this year vs. the last few. 

Coming Tomorrow- An outfielder for a team that, I'm guessing, is gonna be really hard to find people good enough to make customs of this year.

Steele Away

 

I'll say this about this newest Cubs rebuild- almost all of the key players on this Cubs team are actual Cubs farm products. 

Yes, the 2016 World Series team relied upon a ton of homegrown talent, but it's easy to forget that the key piece of that team, Anthony Rizzo, was a player drafted by the Red Sox, traded to San Diego in the Adrian Gonzalez deal, and then traded to the Cubs in the Andrew Cashner deal. The cornerstone of this current iteration of the team for right now is Willson Contreras, who was a Cubs product. As it's likely he'll bounce after this, that right may fall to Nico Hoerner, who was also a Cubs product. And right now, the big rookies, such as Justin Steele, Christopher Morel, P.J. Higgins and, yes, Seiya Suzuki, all came up in the Cubs system.

So at least you can say that. The Cubs may not be doing great right now, but most of what's working is homegrown. In fact, the biggest disappointments of the season, like Marcus Stroman, Andrelton Simmons, Jonathan Villar and, eternally, Jason Heyward, are all contracted players. I know it may still be a few more years before the Cubs come back and compete, but at the very least this season is proving that the farm system can produce gems to refill the team. 

Now, it hasn't helped too much, as the team is still well under .500 with little to no chance of making the playoffs, but these farm pieces have been putting a bit more confidence into a shaky lineup. Justin Steele has come forward as a breakout starter, with a 3.43 ERA and a team leading 111 strikeouts in a full season in the rotation. It's honestly pretty rare for a guy that a team takes a flyer on out of camp to be such a backbone in a rotation, but I'm glad the Cubs accomplished it with Steele. They also lucked out with Keegan Thompson, who's mostly picked up where his 2021 left off, with a 9-5 record and 88 Ks. And Nico Hoerner's been having a fantastic season, giving the Cubs reassurance that he can carry the team going forward.

And...honestly, some of the fill-ins aren't too bad either. Drew Smyly's finally achieved something of ratedness, in between his overrated seasons in Tampa and Detroit and his underrated seasons in Philly and Atlanta. And Franmil Reyes already has 11 hits and 2 homers as a Cub, because of course he does.

This is not a good Cubs team, and isn't gonna be remembered, but I definitely see them setting up the dominoes for a future run. May not be for a bit, but this isn't as dire as a lot of rebuilding teams.

Coming Tonight: He got some playing time with the Rays, now he's a trusted corner infield bat with the Rangers.