Room at the Bottom

 

The Rockies recently became the first team officially eliminated from the playoffs, and they did so with a marginally better record than the Angels, who haven't been eliminated yet but will be in the next 24 hours. Both teams have an outside chance of reaching 100 losses, but it's not guaranteed yet. 

I mean, first of all, let's step back for a moment and think about the fact that there's probably more of a chance of the Brewers reaching 100 wins than the Angels reaching 100 losses. Both may happen but it's nice that there won't be discourse about there being more 100 loss teams than 100 win teams [or any at all]. 

The Angels are probably more likely to reach the mark first because they're up to their ears in replacement-level guys. The number of guys that only hit well against the Yankees has grown to two, as Vaughn Grissom has joined Christian Moore as an in-house Yankee killer without doing much else against the other 28 teams. Grissom is hitting .249 with 10 homers and 59 RBIs as a baseline infield fill-in guy, far from where he thought he'd be about four years ago. Inches from succeeding Dansby Swanson in Atlanta, he was passed over for Orlando Arcia, traded for Chris Sale and never achieved any sense of MLB stability...until this year, where he's an everyday guy for a last place Angels team. The Angels tried a lot of gambits for roster roles this year [Nick Madrigal, Jeimer Candelario, Trey Mancini, Alek Manoah, Michael Fulmer] but Grissom might be the most successful. I don't think this means he'll have a true rebound, but if the Angels continue at this very worrying pace, he could be a good placeholder piece. 

Then again I am seeing a lot of those the more I look around this Angels team. I do think Denzer Guzman is a placeholder guy, as he's not hitting much at all despite having third base, but...he's also 22. Same with Moises Ballesteros, who's shown none of his Cubs-era finesse and is limping along, hitting .179 with barely any offensive production. Christian Moore isn't doing much else, he's hitting .162 in 19 games. The idea is for these guys to inherit the team. Y'know, like Caden Dana was supposed to. Eventually something is going to work, but I still think that timeline is a-ways off. They'll go ahead with Schanuel, Meckler, Urena, Joyce and, I'm guessing, Mike Trout, but I don't think they'll actually be intimidating again while Trout is still here.

The Rockies, meanwhile, do have some solid bats to work with, which is why the 100 loss mark isn't a guarantee just yet. Hunter Goodman, Cole Carrigg, Jake McCarthy, T.J. Rumfield, Zac Even, Troy Johnston and somehow Connor Norby and Adael Amador have continued the relatively decent upward momentum of the Rockies lineup. Goodman's at 36 homers, and he could hit 40. Carrigg's very much at home in the majors, and has an .808 OPS. Johnston is the ideal slap contact guy, even with only 48 RBIs; he's on-point, relatively consistent, and does what he's supposed to. Same with Norby almost. Filling the bench with contact guys is a very nice way to get further towards competition, and assuming Johnston and Norby stick around, they could pad the roster while Carrigg, Karros, Rumfield, Goodman and Even get the everyday glory. It's also very refreshing that Adael Amador has finally learned to hit at the MLB level. He'd be very useful as an everyday second baseman, and moreso now that Willi Castro's gotten hurt.

Pitching is obviously going to be an issue going forward. Ryan Feltner, Gabriel Hughes, Mason Adams and Chase Dollander will be the main starting options, as I'm assuming Sugano will find a better environment for his craftsmanship and the Freeland contract will finally be over. To be honest...you could do worse with a homegrown base. Hughes has a 6.19 ERA, but surprisingly he's got a 3.81 ERA at Coors. Half his starts have been home starts, and they're not bad at all. You get a Feltner or a Lorenzen who's equally bad both home and away, but having young, impressive guys like Hughes, Adams and Dollander who could potentially carry the rotation is...a start. They just need to come into their own without pressure, which I think next year could be good for. I'd recommend grabbing one cheap free agent to pad things [Chris Bassitt? Miles Mikolas? Jordan Montgomery?], but letting those kids go could be a nice start.

I don't think either team will compete as soon as next year, but the Rockies might do so sooner than the Angels. Not White Sox rebuild levels of turnaround but...the seeds have been planted, and you never know when that team will take off.

Coming Tomorrow- A rookie who was traded at the deadline, made his debut and might be making the playoffs anyway.

Uncustomed Heroes of 2022: Braves

 

It is insanely hard, in this current playoff climate, for there to be repeat World Series winners. The playoffs now last so long that it's impossible for the 'best teams' to hold onto momentum the entire way through. The era of the Yankees or Braves winning every year may be behind us.

That being said, if anybody was gonna go back-to-back, I thought it was gonna be the Braves.

The 2021 team was a feel good come to prominence that no one expected, and it was a season I knew they'd be able to build on. Sure enough, the Braves outdo the Mets in the 11th hour for the division, make smarter decisions, call up killer pieces like Spencer Strider and Michael Harris, and look like a more confident, more pronounced team. 

...and then they got trounced in the playoffs by the Phillies of all people. I sure do know how to call 'em.

The Braves have a lot to be proud of, though, and still probably have the strongest team in the NL East [sorry, Mets]. As much as some pieces are leaving in free agency, the big guns that make this team can't-miss baseball are tied up for most of the decade. 

Adam Duvall, fortunately, is one of the aforementioned free agents. Not that his season was bad, as he did nearly make the All-Star team, and he hit 12 homers, but in a shortened 86-game season he still struck out 101 times and hit .213. Duvall is still very much a one-dimensional power hitter who is good to you when he's surging, and this year he really wasn't surging. Then he got injured, missed the playoffs and spent the rest of his contract at home. As much as he helped the team in 2021, I doubt he'll be missed. 

2023 Prediction: A middle of the road team signs him to a 1-year deal, he does okay. The big years may be over.

Then you have Marcell Ozuna. After the battery charges, the Braves haven't really decided what to think about Ozuna, even if he did have a monstrous 2020 season as a DH. With the team growing up and more outfielders and power hitters settling in, there's less of a place on this team for someone like Ozuna, and despite that he's still signed until 2024. This season, in 124 games he hit 56 RBIs and 23 homers while still being phased out as much as the Braves could.

2023 Prediction: Similar numbers. I don't even think the Braves WANT Ozuna to have anymore good seasons. If he does, he'll likely be trade bait for somebody. 

After being a respectable, consistent closer for the Los Angeles Dodgers for 10 seasons, Kenley Jansen took the free agency period to find a new place to play, and landed in Atlanta, who...moved Will Smith over to make room. Jansen, despite a 3.38 ERA, is a rock in the ninth, and led the NL in saves with 41, bringing his career total to 391, bringing him within 10 of 400 overall, and bringing him to 8th overall on  the all-time saves list, and three under former Braves closer Craig Kimbrel. It's clear that Jansen is etching his name in the history books as a closer, and while he wasn't perfect for the Braves, he did exactly what they signed him to do- dominate the ninth by any means necessary.

2023 Prediction: Similar to this year, somebody signs him, he gives them the traditional Jansen material with another 30-40 saves, and we might be doing this for a bit. I dunno if anyone wants to give him a long-term deal.

A few favorable bullpen heroes for the Braves this year. First, Collin McHugh, former Astros starter, has become a pretty efficient bullpen arm since stints with the Red Sox and Rays. In 58 appearances he sported a 2.60 ERA and 75 strikeouts, in addition to notching a considerable amount more innings than most relievers due to his starting experience. McHugh was a much-needed long-man presence for a varied relief squad.

2023 Prediction: I'm not sure who is on the Braves' shortlist to close, or if they're getting anybody, but...guys, Collin McHugh might be working the ninth for some spots this year, and that's alright with me.

 

A.J. Minter, the perennial Braves bullpen favorite, had another strong year this year, with a 2.06 ERA, 94 Ks and 5 wins in 75 games. Minter is a workhorse and a club favorite, and the Braves are lucky to have him.

2023 Prediction: The way Minter has swung recently, 2023 is looking like a down season, but I still see big postseason moments coming his way.

Even with a packed rotation, the Braves gave a few starts to rookie Bryce Elder, who already looks like he's been living in the woods for some time. Elder impressed for the most part, with a 3.17 ERA and 47 Ks in 10 games, 9 of them starts. Ultimately I think he was just low on the depth chart, and once Anderson came back he was back down in the minors.

2023 Prediction: Either there is room for him, and he has a Kyle Wright-esque breakout, or there isn't and he's a big piece in a trade deadline deal. It kinda depends on whether or not Mike Soroka is gonna be a thing in 2023, and I'm honestly not sure if he will be.

This story you've already heard, but...for the purposes of this post. So Ozzie Albies gets injured, right? The Braves do what they did when Acuna was injured and bring up a rookie who's ready to take on MLB work to take his place for a bit. Like Michael Harris before him, Vaughn Grissom took to the majors like a trout to water, and hit .291 with 18 RBIs and 5 homers in 41 games. Mind you, the man is 21 years old. Yes, Albies eventually rejoined the Braves lineup and Grissom became a bench man, but ooooh boy is this kid valuable. The good news for Braves fans is he can play shortstop, and might have to considering who might be leaving town.

2023 Prediction: Vaughn Grissom will be the next Brave to be locked up for the foreseeable future. 

Onto the trade deadline acquisitions. Robbie Grossman was the most useful guy they got, as he'd been a durable, contact-hitting favorite in Detroit, and Oakland now that you mention it, for the last few years. Just a guy that's good to have around. In Atlanta, Grossman improved on a slow 2022 start and hit .217 with 30 hits and 22 RBIs in 46 games. He also posted some of his best defensive numbers since his 20s. 

2023 Prediction: Back to what he was doing before, signing with non-competitive teams and having great seasons for them.

In a very interesting move, the Braves traded Will Smith to Houston for Jake Odorizzi, as they were better off with rotation security than bullpen security. Now, we know how this went, considering Smith got his second consecutive World Series ring with the Astros, but Odo was no slouch either, striking out 40 in 10 games, despite an ERA over 5, and giving up 2 runs in 3 playoff innings. He's still a reliable depth piece at this point in his career.

2023 Prediction: Well, he's at the back half of a rotation led by Jacob deGrom. The odds are, if he stays healthy, and he probably will, he will get a ton of starts next year. I'd love for deGrom to stay healthy, we all would, but...I feel like Odo is gonna get a lot of work next year in Texas. A lot like Jordan Lyles and Kyle Gibson once Kluber got hurt.

And in the second baffling trade the Braves made this July, they shipped Jesse Chavez and Tucker Davidson over to LA to have Raisel Iglesias work the eighth...which is odd, because working the ninth is more his thing. I think it was just in case Jansen fell apart. Still, Iglesias was excellent as a Brave, allowing only 1 earned run in 36 innings, and striking out 30/100 batters. Iglesias is still scary when he's on, and his back half numbers gave the Braves some good feelings about their long term bullpen security.

2023 Predictions: I'm thinking Iglesias is just the Braves' new closer, so he's gonna be really good at that for a couple years.

Tomorrow, a few members of a Brewers team that were so close to a playoff run.

Attack of the Braves Rookies

 

You know how last year the Braves traded for a bunch of people and then they carried the team to a World Series? This year's like that, but instead of traded people it's rookies. Michael Harris, Spencer Strider, William Contreras and now Vaughn Grissom are giving this team the boost they need to make themselves a postseason contender again.

And a lot of these guys are providing the same kind of services the add-ons from last year did. Eddie Rosario, Joc Pederson, Adam Duvall and Jorge Soler all got added because Ronald Acuna was injured and Marcell Ozuna was out. This year, Acuna was only injured for a bit, but Duvall and Rosario were out for longer stretches. So in came Harris, a 21-year-old defensive upgrade with an excellent contact bat. Harris is currently hitting .298 with 45 RBIs and 13 home runs. Not bad for one of the youngest people on the roster. 

Then you have the Ozzie Albies injury. Last year, the Braves would have traded for somebody, Josh Harrison or Cesar Hernandez or somebody. This year they call up Vaughn Grissom, also 21, and he proceeds to hit .324 with 10 RBIs in 3 homers in his first 18 games. It's the kind of insane performance that makes me wonder what's going to happen once Ozzie Albies comes back. As great as Grissom is, can they really afford to keep him down in the minors again after this? Why do I see a trade in Grissom's future?

And then the other two, Strider and Contreras, have been here since the start of the season and have had great full rookie campaigns, building themselves into the foundation of the team and feeling like veterans already. Contreras has been an excellent catcher for a team that already has Travis d'Arnaud, and has a healthy version of him [Mets couldn't even secure that]. Strider has been excellent rotation security for a team that struck out with Huascar Ynoa and Ian Anderson this year. Strider might be a heavy ROY favorite, and I think he's got a strong case.

The team itself also has the strength of Max Fried, Austin Riley, Dansby Swanson, Matt Olson and, yes, Ronald Acuna, powering it through to September. I definitely think the Braves will be a heavy favorite this postseason, and could go pretty deep into things if other teams make the mistake of going against them as if they were still operating by 2021 rules. I finally figured it out. The 2021 Braves are like the 2010 Giants. Lots of veterans holding things together but the youth is juuuust ready, and now from here on in, they'll be running things just fine.

Coming Tonight: A nasty young reliever for a team determined to somehow stay in the fight.