Rhys Offering

 

It really doesn't say much about Rhys Hoskins' appeal in Philadelphia that there hasn't been a gaping hole at 1st without him. Bryce Harper moved over, became a gold glover, and there's been no atrophy at that position because Bryce is the friggin best. Rhys did a lot during his 6 years at the corner in Philly, but his flaws were well-documented: he wasn't great at hitting for average, he'd find very unfortunate times to get hurt, and he struck out a ton. Yes, he hit 25 or more homers on 4 occasions, had that insane 18-homers-in-50-games stretch to start his career in 2017, and had 6 homers and 12 RBIs during the 2022 postseason, but Hoskins, as much as we loved him in Philly, was limited. He was a great power hitter, mediocre defensively and wasn't great running bases. When you have two guys who are on the roster purely for power...and one of them is Kyle Schwarber, who can hit for contact when he's on, the other guy isn't gonna look like much.

But at the same time, even without being that multi-dimensional guy, Rhys Hoskins was a legend in Philly. He got us through a very dark period of Phillies baseball, became a tight battery with Harper, and helped us get to a World Series. He got us from 'well, we have to believe in something' to 'well, here we are.' When he got the injury in 2023, and it became clear that his Phillies career was likely over, it was a sad moment. And like, he got applause in Philly when he came back with the Brewers. Granted, the 2-homer day off Luzardo probably didn't help, but we love the guy.

Now...what makes this interesting is the fact that there's a nonzero percent chance we deal for him in a month.

Hoskins in Milwaukee has been...passable. He hits home runs, that's for sure. 26 last year, 9 already this year, he's on pace to hit 200 this season. He's also got 38 RBIs right now, and he's hitting .264. As a power bat, he's doing everything he should be doing, but it's clear that he stands out among a much younger Brewers infield, and his defense doesn't warrant the starts at 1B. Tyler Black is in the wings as a corner option, and I guess Oliver Dunn is too. If the Brewers need to trade Hoskins, they won't be completely screwed, and they have plenty of young guys coming. Also, if the Phils want to trade for Hoskins, Bryce Harper has said that he'd gladly move back to right field to accommodate it. 

It honestly depends on if the Brewers will be in position to sell. They have a good team, and are in the thick of it, but lack some of the punch they had last season, and definitely have a rebuilding pitching staff. We'll see if they eventually go through with it, and if it ends up being a deal that benefits the Phils. But I think it'd make a lot of people back here very happy.

Coming Tonight: Now that Mike Trout's back, the pressure's slightly off this guy, but he's still gonna be one of the most crucial guys on the Angels. 

Perfectly Even

 

Looking at the Twins now, 2 months into the season, is fascinating. This might be the single most even, level and consistent team in the bigs. You look around at this team and pretty much everything is working. Even on the really good teams there's some pitching issue or a hole at 3rd. The Twins just have good people everywhere right now, and...as such, they're in second and rolling.

For the first time, it feels like a lot of the factors that have been building for years in this organization are finally paying off. Byron Buxton having his fullest season in years, hitting .274 with 10 homers and 37 RBIs. He's finally feeling like the all-around hitter the team's deserved for years. Chris Paddack, who the Twins traded for years ago in the hopes he'd perform as he did in 2019, has turned into a pretty strong mid-rotation arm, with a 3.58 ERA in 12 starts. Pablo Lopez, despite skipping a couple starts, has continued his excellent Minnesota pace, with a 2.82 ERA and 60 Ks in 11 starts. Jhoan Duran was the strongest reliever in the bigs last month, currently has a 0.99 ERA, and headlines a very strong rotation with several multifaceted arms. And a number of mid-lineup hitters, like Ryan Jeffers, Trevor Larnach, Kody Clemens, Ty France and Matt Wallner, have been producing consistently as of late. Now Willi Castro's joining in, with a couple days of consistent RBIs.

There are slight stumbling points at the moment, like Zebby Matthews in that 5th starting spot [should be David Festa] and Brooks Lee and Royce Lewis's struggling prospect platoon at 3rd. But they're not killing the team. The idea is for Lewis to go on a tear [like he usually does], or for Matthews to finally acclimate to the majors, and enough is going well that these things can take their time. Right now there's only 3 people on the IL, and none are especially crucial pieces; Danny Coulombe and his 0.00 ERA will be back eventually, and Luke Keaschall is 22 and will have plenty of other chances. Hopefully the injury luck stays this good, although Byron Buxton, Royce Lewis and Chris Paddack are aware of the odds there.

I dunno, I was expecting this team to skirt the middle but because so much is working, and so uniformly, the Twins might be a surprise sleeper favorite. If they stay this consistent for the next few months, they could be working on something. And that doesn't even account for the guys that weren't working in April or May that have the potential to spark fire and help the team later on. I'm really intrigued by this prospect of this team continuing to factor into this division, and I hope they can keep the Guardians and Royals at bay for a bit longer.

Coming Tomorrow- He left my team, he hit some home runs, and now there's this idea that he could come back.

Don't Get Too Comfortable..

 

The Marlins have a relatively straightforward week ahead of them. They're playing the Rockies right now [and have already dropped a game], then get to play the Rays, Pirates and Nationals. All teams that aren't terribly competitive, and all teams where they have a chance of winning some games. And hopefully they do, because after that stretch the next time they get to play a team with a record close to theirs is the Orioles series...right before the ASG break.

Which means the Marlins are about 10 days away from spending practically a month facing teams that are trying to compete. Fasten your seatbelts, boys...

I think there was a belief that the Marlins would be better this year, because so many pieces got set up last fall, and they'd be going in with a healthy Sandy Alcantara, and really nothing productive has happened. Alcantara has completely fallen apart since coming back from his surgery, with an 8.47 ERA and a 2-7 record. Whatever the case, he was clearly not like this before, and hopefully he's able to rebound over time. Meanwhile, Jesus Sanchez, thought to be the marquee star this year, has barely factored into the Marlins' season at all, hitting .268 through 40 games. Most of the slack is being picked up by people like Dane Myers, Xavier Edwards and Derek Hill, all of whom have [or continue to] spent time on the IL this year. 

And so once again, the biggest WAR guys on the Marlins are the unsung role-players, rather than full on dominators [though Kyle Stowers and Anthony Bender are getting there]. Otto Lopez, for the second year in a row, has put together a great season on the grounds of his own defensive prowess. He's only hitting .239, but he [like Hill, Myers and Javier Sanoja] has above-average defensive ability, and his SS work has given the Marlins a crucial piece. Myers is similar, having a great season in center while also batting .315 with 14 RBIs in 33 games. According to the WAR chart, the Marlins' best starter right now is Valente Bellozo, he of the low-Ks and keep-it-in mentality, though Edward Cabrera and Ryan Weathers are certainly gaining on him with their more conventional seasons.

You can see the skeleton of a decent team with this Marlins club. Kyle Stowers, Ryan Weathers, Otto Lopez and Anthony Bender are the kind of guys you can build a team around...that is, if you decide not to trade them. And considering they've all arrived in Miami through trades, that's kind of ironic. 

Coming Tonight: Another Lopez, ironically a former Marlin himself. Currently on a much better team.

Vlad Ambassador

 

The Toronto Blue Jays were able to do what the Montreal Expos failed to do 22 years earlier: they gave a Guerrero enough money to stay in Canada. 

Though honestly wouldn't that have been weird? If Jeffrey Loria somehow had enough money to extend Vladimir Guerrero yet was perfectly content with shitcanning the franchise and moving to DC then selling? Wouldn't it have been wild if Vlad Sr. got to play for the Nats? I don't know if I could even imagine that. 

But regardless, Vlad Jr. got his extension, and from the looks of things, he will play the rest of his career as a Blue Jay. Now, when Vlad came up in 2019 he was the first piece of what was to be a promising youth movement with plans to compete. That never...really happened. And I still think it's awkward timing extending him now as the team is still in flux and bobbing about in the middle of the division. But I think the idea is to cement his status as a marquee star as the team transitions from that era to the next.

As it stands, Vlad Jr. might be one of the few players that gave this team anything resembling an identity at the moment. He's hitting .283 with 28 RBIs and 8 homers, and has an OPS of .829, second only to George Springer. Vlad has finally come into his own as a contact bat, in addition to the power numbers he so confidently displayed in prior seasons. He's also really embracing the leadership role, even as Bo Bichette struggles with his veteran status and George Springer flounders past his prime. I think Vlad is on a path to continue to be this guy for the Jays for a while, and these current numbers do affirm the team's faith in him.

But looking around, I really don't see too many seeds of the future. There's a few young players on this team who've done well this year, but, a lot like the Rays, they're all on the older side. Ernie Clement, who's breaking out in a big way, is 29. Nathan Lukes, a great bench bat, is 30. I suppose Addison Barger, a 25-year old corner breakout, is a good piece for the future, but many people thought to help carry the team as recently as last season, like Will Wagner, Jonatan Clase, Davis Schneider and Bowden Francis, just aren't getting it done. I still think Alek Manoah not being the perennial ace this team needed was the piercing blow to the team's future, because so much else was dependent on older veterans. 

The Jays are in second, and above .500, and have used the last half of May to soar above floundering competitors, but I'm not sure if this team is really ready for October baseball this year because they really don't know who they are yet. There's no consistent identity, it's all being flown in different directions. And Vlad is trying to be this unifying figure but the formula hasn't been cemented yet. Maybe things change this year, but even with some good trends I still can't tell what the Jays are this year.

Coming Tomorrow- Ironically an infielder the Jays gave up. 

Finally Pivotal

 

There is some sort of magic in the water in San Diego, especially in relation to starting pitching. They can take guys that people have written off and make them into the best pitchers in the game. We saw it with Seth Lugo and Nick Martinez a few years back. We saw it with Michael King after the Soto deal, and honestly with Randy Vazquez to a degree. We saw it with Blake Snell over the course of an entire contract in San Diego. And now we're seeing it with Nick Pivetta. Whatever the Phillies pitching coaches do to guys, or at least the bullpen coaches, the Padres' pitching coaches do the opposite.

Nick Pivetta was always a great pitcher in concept but had the hardest time pulling things together. Even in 2022, the closest thing Pivetta's had to a truly dominant season, he went 10-12 for the Red Sox. He got so persnickety that the Sox moved him to the bullpen, then brought him back due to lack of options. And last year he did pretty well for himself, notching 170 Ks or more for the fourth straight season. 

So far in 2025, however, Pivetta's on track for a new career mark. He's 6-2, with a a 2.74 ERA, 71 Ks and a 1.8 WAR. Pivetta, in a rotation with Michael King, Yu Darvish and Dylan Cease in it, has been the surest bet every time. Not that Cease is doing badly, he's struck out 78, but he's 1-4 through 12 starts. He's got a 4.66 ERA. Whatever he eventually found last year, he hasn't gotten to yet. Pivetta, meanwhile, has been the big game guy for the Padres through 2 months, and has been a welcome distraction from the gaping hole in the back half of the rotation [which Stephen Kolek is currently trying his best to fill]. The idea is that King and Darvish will be back soon [and Matt Waldron will be back eventually I hope], and any jitters will be dealt with.

But as it stands, the back half of May was not a great time for the Padres. They're 6-9 since May 15th, after starting the season at an unstoppable pace at home, and the worry is that things are slowing down. Not having an especially strong rotation, beyond Vazquez at least, is the root of this. They are hitting, and the core of Tatis, Machado and Merrill still makes them a competitor, but teams like the Mariners and Blue Jays, like-minded but more depleted teams, are sweeping them. The good news is the Giants slowed down at a similar pace, and there's still a tight lock for 2nd, but now the Dodgers are well ahead and they could pull away if this pace continues. 

The Padres certainly have the team to approach the Dodgers with, but they need the momentum to fall their way, like it did in April. Hopefully everything comes together. But it can't just be Nick Pivetta soaring in that rotation for this team to click. It needs to be everybody.

Coming Tomorrow- He signed the extension. Now what?

Astros Update: Something is Broken Edition

 

Here are some facts about the Astros. In the past week, the Astros have suffered two different losses where they gave up 13 or more runs, both to the Tampa Bay Rays, they have lost two major organizational figures [Ronel Blanco and Yordan Alvarez] to injuries then immediately lost both Chas McCormick and Zach Dezenzo, meaning they're running out of outfielders as well, and have had to defend Lance McCullers from cyberattacks after ruining prop bets with a security brigade. This is a week's worth of team breaking crises, which the Astros are experiencing...as they proceed to what could be a first place berth. 

Yes. That's right. Even with everything that's been going wrong, including Altuve's awful left field experience, Brendan Rodgers' awful time filling in at 2nd, and the back half of the rotation caverning, has not stopped the Astros from being in position to lap the Mariners, who, while still winning games, are only a half game ahead. And while both teams are playing sub-.500 teams right now, the Mariners are playing the ones who are beginning to pick up [the Orioles]. Meanwhile, the Astros get to play the Pirates. I mean...come on now. 

It will never cease to frustrate me how consistently well the Astros can do while statistically not deserving to. It's the equivalent of a senator always getting elected and never getting primaried but never actually doing anything to deserve to stay in power. So much is going on behind the scenes to ensure that this current balance remains, regardless of whether or not it should be. The Astros have had multiple seasons now where they've clearly demonstrated a subpar, below-standard team, and yet they keep frigging winning. They've made the playoffs every year since 2017, and only one of those years wasn't a division win. There have been so many more deserving teams in that stretch. The 2010s A's teams. The 2023 Rangers team. Any Mariners team from the past few years. Right now, the Mariners are the better team, have the better pitchers, and have more power hitters doing what they're supposed to, and because they're the Mariners they ebb and flow more than most.

I will give the Astros some credit. They have a good amount of people playing well. Jeremy Pena, as much as he confounds me, is having a great season, hitting .309 with 9 homers and 30 RBIs. Isaac Paredes is still a fixture at 3rd, with 11 homers and 32 RBIs. Brown and Valdez are in excellent shape, the bullpen's pretty solid across the board, and Cam Smith is coming into his own. But this just doesn't feel like a first place team to me, and it pains me to see this organization continue to get out of every scrape imaginable. 

I just wanna go back to the early 2010s when the Astros were terrible, it was so much simpler then.

Coming Tomorrow- He flirted with greatness but struggled with consistency for Philly, and then for Boston. Yet something about how the Padres were ready to throw the vault at him just moved me to pick him up in fantasy this year. Probably one of my best gambles.

May 2025 in Review [ft. T.J. Friedl]

 

What a month May was. Went to two games, and combined to the one I just got back from, I'm 3-0 rooting for the home team [those expecting a writeup of said earlier Orioles game will be saddened to learn that I spent most of the game in a suite drinking with a wedding party and only occasionally watched the game, and when I did I'd have sworn there were two men in the batters' box at the same time]. A bunch of divisions saw new leads, new competitors and new mayhem. Acuna and Trout came back, a bunch more got hurt. Such is life. And now we recap, as per usual.

First here are the results of those 5 predictions for May I made last month:

1. One guy who's been terrible in April gets insanely hot and commands the narrative again. Chris Sale and Rafael Devers fall into this category, both had tough Aprils but figured things out this month.

2. Conversely, a team we've seen April success from goes embarrassingly cold. Again, a couple teams qualify. The Mets? The A's? EMBARRASSINGLY cold harkens back to the Rangers, or even the Red Sox.

3. Either another 4-homer game or a genuine no-hitter happens. Nope and nope.

4. A lot of usual Cy Young hopefuls are either hurt or slumping. Either a typical name goes on a tear or a new name enters the fold and makes the case for elite status. Tarik Skubal is having a season that's on par with, if not better than, his 2024 season. Zack Wheeler is off and rolling again, as is Sale. 

5. Something incredible happens at the Pirates-Phillies game I am going to mid-month. Nothing 'incredible'. Good things, yes. Very good pitching from Zack Wheeler. But nothing incredible. 

So, off of that, here are 5 things from May 2025 that no one could have predicted:

1. The Mets weren't gonna stay in first forever. Right now, thanks to a rough weekend for the Phils and a...Rockies series for the Mets [and you're CERTAIN they don't make these schedules like this on purpose?], the Mets have reclaimed the division. But for most of the month it did not look like that. The Phils were surging, with the whole rotation doing well [even Taijuan Walker, now being replaced by Mick Abel apparently], and the whole lineup showing up. Then one Harper injury later things started falling apart. But the Mets, ever since the Yankees series, have been losing even more ground, and blowing some crucial games to the Pirates and Red Sox. But they've battled back in the last week, winning close matchups against the Dodgers, and the aforementioned Rockies series put them back on top. What we've established this month, however, is that it's gonna be one close race for the remainder of the season.

2. Three interim managers by June 1st?? Compared to last season, when nobody really last their job til later on, this was a bloodbath, and one such case, Brandon Hyde, didn't really deserve it. But now the O's are without the manager that arguably brought the team back to 1st, the Pirates are without the manager that...did his best despite Bob Nutting's misgivings, and the Rockies are without the manager that, despite his strengths, got them off to the start they did. Now all three will try and limp to the end with the second in command. I thought one or two could have legged it out another month, but I'm not an owner.

3. The AL Central is now more deadlocked than the NL West. Four teams have 31 wins or more. Two of those teams, the Royals and Twins, have seen tremendous winning streaks this month. And while the Tigers are well ahead now, we now have proof that it won't be easy for them. The Twins won 13 games in a row, in a stretch where two of their biggest stars got injured. The Guardians sped ahead despite losing some crucial games throughout the month. The Royals kept in the race despite losing some big pitching pieces to injuries. The NL West is very close right now, but I can kind of predict how it's gonna go. I'm not there yet with the AL Central.

4. The back half of the Yankee rotation is not, as previously thought, death. Will Warren, barring a shellacking the other night, has figured out MLB hitting instincts, and his K numbers have been very nice, with 69 through 12 starts. Clarke Schmidt got over some struggles and got his ERA back under 4. And look at how Ryan Yarbrough's been doing as a starter again, with 2 wins and a 2.25 ERA through 4 starts. Obviously it'll be cool to get Gil or Stroman or Beeter back eventually, but I'm just relieved we can keep things down.

5. FIFTY LOSSES BY JUNE 1ST, COLORADO??? Obviously we knew they'd be bad, but...FIFTY LOSSES ALREADY? They're hitting .216 as a team, they've got a 5.64 ERA, their best player's a reliever who'll likely be gone by July and their big power guy heading into the season has been demoted after leading the league in strikeouts. This is even more disastrous than the 2024 White Sox somehow.

And on the other hand, 5 things from May 2025 that lots of people could have predicted.

1. Shohei Ohtani does more Shohei Ohtani things. Oh you know, he's on pace to finish the season with more homers than any Dodger, he's still punishing Yankee pitchers like it's his job and he might be on a mound this month. No big deal.

2. Oh hey look the Astros are back guys. There's a chance the Astros challenge 1st this month, as they're a game or so back at the moment, led by Hunter Brown, Isaac Paredes, and too many prospects achieved by sign-stealing, which is the baseball equivalent of casually having a family emerald mine. 

3. The O's without a rotation are gonna lay around for a bit. Again, I caught a win today with Charlie Morton on the mound, and it's mostly because they were playing the White Sox, but there was a while back there, before Eflin got activated, where absolutely nothing got done. You can't be putting Cade Povich, Dean Kremer and a past-his-prime Morton out there everyday and expect the lineup to routinely get out of it. And speaking of Baltimore,

4. The Orioles really shouldn't have traded Kyle Stowers. I think if they still had the Miami God of Clutch Hitting on the team they'd have won a couple more games. Certainly no different with or without Trevor Rogers on the IL there. Stowers is hitting .286, has 10 homers and 32 RBIs, and is the exact kind of power guy the Marlins needed. 

5. Even without consistency, the Reds do have something cooking here. Every week you'll get a different, fun standout. Maybe it's Will Benson, who went on a tear a couple weeks ago. Maybe it's T.J. Friedl, who's been hitting .305 and killing it. Maybe it's Austin Hays, who was doing great before he got hurt again. The Reds, especially with their pitching, have a team you can't exactly rule out, which doesn't bode well for the Cardinals or Cubs.

Now, for my money, here are the 5 Most Valuable Players of May 2025:

1. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

2. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

3. Tarik Skubal, Los Angeles Dodgers

4. Freddie Freeman, Los Angeles Dodgers

5. Cal Raleigh, Seattle Mariners

And finally, here are 5 bold predictions for June 2025:

1. Very big comeback from an injury, and it's 100% worth the wait.

2. There were a lot of streaks coming from mid-level competitors in the central divisions this month. In June there'll be a nice streak from a major metro era with a huge competitor.

3. Topps really doesn't have a big selling point for 2025 Update Series yet, and the rookie cutoff date is fastly approaching. I predict one more mega-rookie jumps in, and even if it ends up being Cole Young I'll accept it.

4. Schwarber in June is as big as advertised.

5. The year so far has been dominated, mostly, by the Yankees and Dodgers again. In June, we may see what the real narrative ends up being. [It make take a couple months to verify this].

Well, that's everything from this month. Let's hope the next one is just as fun.