Moving On By Force

 

2025 is the year that it has become abundantly clear how urgently the Astros need to leave their past behind them. The majority of their championship staffers have left, and while a lot of the 2022 team still remains, they're not as essential as they were [barring choice examples like Framber Valdez and Jeremy Pena]. This year alone, the Astros have seen their perennial hero, Jose Altuve, struggle to competently play left field, their 2017-era fireballer Lance McCullers get lit up in a long-awaited return and then have to fend off death threats from sports betters, and their longtime favorite Alex Bregman have an incredible season...for the Boston Red Sox.

The dream may, in fact, be over. They're over .500, and in 2nd, but they're more human than they've ever been. They need to act like what they are, not what they were. Because it's a different team. Not better exactly, but different. And they need to embrace that.

For instance, right now one of the Astros' best hitters is Isaac Paredes, who they traded Ryan Pressly, another remnant of the 2010s teams, for. Paredes is an excellent power bat with some defensive third base perks, and he can plug into just about any lineup and be a consistent producer. So far he's hitting .267 with 19 RBIs and 6 homers, plus 40 hits overall. It's exactly what you need, even if it's not full Bregman style dominance. Similarly impressive is Jeremy Pena, who's hitting .315 with 6 homers and 23 RBIs. He's not the full flashy Carlos Correa type, but he's efficient and does his job. Hunter Brown, who's 6-1 with a 1.48 ERA, is coming to prominence not through overwhelming numbers like Keuchel, Cole and Verlander had, but just keeping people down and staying sharp. They've outgrown the 'villains of the MLB' thing I think, and nobody left [barring Altuve] really seems like a villainous force in the game. Even Ronel Blanco, who no-hit the Blue Jays out of revenge, has mellowed into just another solid starter. 

The Astros are capable of taking off the pressure and just playing baseball, and so far they've been doing this. They're 2 games over .500, a game back from Seattle, and they're not forcing anything. So I'm not really threatened by the potential of them taking first. I don't think it'll last, as they have so many pieces that just aren't working [Christian Walker, Brendan Rodgers, Yainer Diaz, a lot of overblown rotation arms], but you can tell this iteration of the team is just taking it kind of easy at this point. A Hinch/Baker team wouldn't have done that. 

I hope they continue at this pace. It'll be easier for me to manage. Though if Altuve suddenly shoots up to a home run lead or something and we start pretending he's MVP caliber, I'm gonna lose it.

Coming Tonight (?): Ironically a starter the Astros wanted this past offseason. But ultimately the D-Backs got him. 

[One-Sided] Rivalry Weekend

 

To all the people crying foul over whether or not Pirates-Phillies counts as a rivalry, my dad informs me that before the division realignment, Bucs-Phils was a pretty tight playoff matchup. Those 70s/80s teams always ended up meeting at some point, and it was always tense. Since the Pirates now count as a Central team, and since the Pirates and Phillies are rarely ever both great at the same time, it doesn't matter as much. The Phillies' chief rival is the Mets, the Pirates' chief rival to me is probably Chicago or something like that. But since they share a state, and they're both kind of without a dance partner, this is what we're doing. Phils-Pirates, in Philadelphia, where a sea of red will likely be laughing the Pirates away, except for the one game that Paul Skenes is supposed to pitch. 

And that is how you sum up the Pirates right now. Listless, unmemorable and uninspired, except for like 5 innings a week when Skenes is on the mound. And even he's still letting runs by every so often. He's 3-4, meaning not all of his games are being blown by the bullpen. They're being blown by the offense not answering runs. This is the Jacob deGrom shit all over again. Already you're hearing rumblings that they might even try to trade him, which...while ridiculous, also kind of tracks for the Bob Nutting era. You draft one of the most insane pitching prospects in recent memory and it hurts your business if you keep him. 

So going into this Phils series, a game of which I will be attending, I'm not completely intimidated by this team. There's a ton of replacement players, a lot of rookies that haven't panned out, and a lot of dead space. But every so often there is someone who is genuinely worrisome. Someone who, if he gets hot at the right moment, could spell doom. And as good as the Phillies are looking going into this series, I'm still worried about Oneil Cruz.

This is someone who, if you put the ball in the right place, he'll hit it harder than anyone else. His .830 OPS and his 8 home runs lead the team, and his 16 stolen bases lead the NL. This is a guy who didn't work at shortstop but is a lot more comfortable at CF, and, while he is something of a liability on defense, is better than some of his contemporaries. It's not that he's an overwhelming standout, as he's only hitting .238, but he seems to be the only Pirates hitter doing what he's supposed to at the moment. You're seeing a team of people who were untouchable in the minors just collapsing here, guys like Henry Davis, Endy Rodriguez and Ke'Bryan Hayes who were supposed to be huge but are just kinda there. If there was actually competent farming and organizational leadership then all of these players would be either doing what they were supposed to or already shifted out in favor of better options. But it's just been this slow crawl, where even in May the team feels dead on arrival.

So Saturday night, I will be watching Zack Wheeler take on the Pirates lineup, and [checks notes] Carmen Mlodzinski try and keep down the Phillies lineup. No real idea how that's gonna go.

Coming Tomorrow- He played for two teams famous for dealing away talent before they can truly develop. Now he plays for the Astros. So thank heavens he's playing well.

Comparatively Alright

As the White Sox go towards another dilapidated, disappointing last place finish, they are weirdly beginning to do so from a point of leverage. Because now, after a season with one of the worst single season finishes by a team in a while...there now seems to be a team worse than the White Sox. The Rockies have won 7 games, lost 35. They are on pace for a season worse than the 2024 White Sox, who at least had Garrett Crochet, Erick Fedde and moments of good Tommy Pham. Who do the Rockies have that's doing even slightly alright? Jordan Beck and his awful defense? Ryan McMahon and his strikeouts?

 Meanwhile, the White Sox actually look better this year. Not GOOD. No, they're...probably still gonna lose 100 games. But they've won 3 of their last 4. This month they've taken 2 from the Astros, taken a big win from the Brewers and are now handling the Reds. The 2024 team couldn't really do things like that, except for that random week midyear where they were suddenly winning things. Now they actually have people who know what they're doing in crucial positions. Now there's actually a substantial amount of young players taking hold and proving they're here at the right time.

And...Andrew Benintendi actually looks kinda competent. His first two seasons in Chicago weren't great, and he couldn't really reach the contact work he was doing with Boston or KC. Now, despite being sidelined with an injury, he's still one of the better hitters on this lineup, with 5 homers and 12 RBIs. That may not look great, but when you consider that many hitters are just completely blowing it right now, like Andrew Vaughn, Jacob Amaya and Michael Taylor, it's at the very least a nice factor. Benintendi is still capable of great numbers, he just hasn't had the health or consistency lately. And now that this team honestly needs a guy like him, he's been a little better.

You're also thankfully seeing younger players get off and running on their careers with this team. Edgar Quero is hitting .303 with 9 RBIs in 21 games, Chase Meidroth has been a major improvement at 2nd, and the pitching is being run by Shane Smith, Sean Burke and Mike Vasil. To remind you all, in 2024 the rookies were pushed into the picture and many of them were burned out very quick. Ky Bush and Drew Thorpe are out for this year due to the need to have them in the majors last year. So I'm glad that Shane Smith was eased in from camp, has been given plenty of room to succeed, and has a 2.08 ERA and 38 Ks, with some rookie standards for keeping runs down. Unlike Crochet, who was essentially getting his bags packed in May, Smith will probably be a White Sock for a little while, and he's a piece they can definitely build on. And on a team of Brooks Baldwins and Miguel Amayas and Miguel Vargases, guys they're just putting up to fill the roster, that's a promising presence.

The White Sox are still technically a bad team. As alright as they've been lately, they're gonna have weeks that are downright awful, and they're coming. But at this rate, they'll finish ahead of Colorado and stay on a pace to eventually bounce back from bottoming out. It will take some time. 

Coming Tonight: He's extremely tall and hits harder than the majority of the league, and even he can't keep the Pirates out of last.

Eastern Promises

 

This year, Ichiro Suzuki will become the first Japanese player inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame. It's hard to look back at 2001, where Ichiro was an insane rookie hitter, and think about how the Japanese player was a novelty at one point. Hideo Nomo playing for the Dodgers may have broke the thresholds open 30 years after Masanori Murakami, but the conveyer of Japanese players to the MLB was still very spotty and unrefined for a while. Whereas now they're everywhere and serving so many purposes.

My point of reference is the period where the Japanese imports were already in their thirties, guys like Kosuke Fukudome, Yasuhiko Yabuta and Hiroki Kuroda, guys who'd maybe have one or two of their peak years in the states before declining. Now they're coming over in their prime and continuing it playing for the best of the best. It's to the point where now that we once again have an older, veteran Japanese rookie in Tomoyuki Sugano, that feels like more of a novelty than anything. Sugano, 35, has been a bright spot in a very disappointing last place Orioles team. Through 8 games he's 4-2 with a 2.72 ERA. He's not a high strikeout guy but he's just been dominant and consistent, and with all the injuries in Baltimore, they need that right now. 

Meanwhile, Kodai Senga, despite being 32, is still one of the most fearsome starters in the game. Right now through 8 he's also 4-2, but with a league leading 1.22 ERA, plus 42 Ks. This was the dominance that Senga displayed in his fantastic rookie season, and despite some shakiness in his rehab season last year, he seems to be back and stronger than ever...much like the Mets. 

And you're also seeing that getting a young, full-prime Japanese player isn't the slam dunk it used to be. Roki Sasaki is 23 and was an absolute phenom in Japan, yet he's struggled mightily in the States, culminating in an injury. Even while the strategy evolves, sometimes planning and expectation is meaningless, and the players themselves chart their own course anytime they want. 

Let's have a look at some of the other Japanese imports in the league, and see if any are defying their own ages:

Angels: Yusei Kikuchi is 34, and despite not getting a win yet he's still very reliable, and has a 3.72 ERA. Kikuchi has only gotten better as he's matured in the majors, and his Jays run has been his peak so far, which the Angels hope continues with them.

Cubs: Seiya Suzuki is 30 and is still pretty much in his prime, though I worry he's not exactly the hitter that was advertised. Shota Imanaga's 31 and still definitely in his prime. 

Dodgers: Ohtani is Ohtani. Yamamoto is 26 and having an incredible season, with a 1.80 ERA and 53 Ks. A Japanese pitcher has never won a Cy Young award, despite Darvish coming in 2nd a few years back, and Yamamoto is already figuring heavily into the conversation.

Nationals: Shinnosuke Ogasawara, in his rookie season at 27, has a 4.80 ERA in 3 starts...in Rochester. I don't know if it's the Nats rotation or Ogasawara himself but this may be more on the side of novelty.

Padres: Well, Yu Darvish is 38 and injured, but he's had a full career. Yuki Matsui is 29 and still a very crucial part of this bullpen, with a 2 ERA. 

Red Sox: Masataka Yoshida is still very much in his prime, but he is currently hurt. 

Tigers: Kenta Maeda, a rare care of a Japanese player clearly past his prime, was cut a few weeks ago after posting a 7.88 ERA in relief. 

So honestly, it varies, but the quality of player is now good enough that there's less drop-offs and more powering through, even in their early 30s. It bodes well for both these players, and their teams. And for Roki Sasaki honestly. He may not have clicked now, but who's to say he won't eventually?

Coming Tomorrow- The closest thing to a veteran star the White Sox have.

Yaz I Was Saying..

 

Mike Yastrzemski, especially when you compare his numbers to his grandfather's, might have one of the most fascinating careers of the moment. Yaz didn't make his MLB debut til he was 28, after years of toiling in the minors, and since then he's averaged 3.5 WAR and .241 per season while still being one of the most respected Giants of the current regime. His best statistical season was during the pandemic-shortened 2020, and it would have given him an All-Star nod that has still evaded him. He's never played a season with more than 148 games, and he's never hit more than 57 RBIs in a season. Yet whenever he's healthy he always hits well, plays great defense and is well liked.

Yaz...feels like he would have been more at home in the time his grandpa Carl played. Back then, they called you up at like 21, you played for 20 years, you didn't have to swing at every pitch and you didn't get hurt as often. It's just upsetting that the second he really finds his sweet spot in the majors is right around the end of his peak. Not that he's not an exciting and crucial player, even at 34, but I suppose the Giants wish they got more of 20s Yaz rather than the guy who many get injured right when he really gets going.

Yaz is a perfect summation of the Giants to this point: a guy capable of great things who does very well but for an infuriatingly narrow period of time. Thankfully Yaz, like the Giants, are widening that period this year, being a very strong third place team with aspirations of dethroning the top two.

Are there disappointments this season for the Giants? Of course. Willy Adames is not playing as well as promised, LaMonte Wade simply isn't hitting, Justin Verlander has been simply passable, Ryan Walker's dominance is absent, and Patrick Bailey, the catcher so promising that the Giants traded Joey Bart to Pittsburgh to keep him as the starter, hasn't hit above .200 yet. There are definite flaws, places where the answer hasn't shown up yet, and some close recent losses. But ultimately, this is a team that can hit, and has a lineup where nearly everyone has over 10 RBIs. 

Yaz, alongside Matt Chapman, Heliot Ramos, Jung Hoo Lee and Wilmer Flores, make up a very strong, potent, powerful core. Lee is definitely for real, leading the team in hits and still managing 24 RBIs. Chapman continues to be one of the best third basemen in the game and also consistently hits home runs. Flores, for a period, led the league in RBIs, and his 33 is still a great mark. And yes, with Robbie Ray and Logan Webb in peak form, and enough young guys that will eventually get the idea, the pitching is in great shape as well.

The Giants just look very good, and have managed some excellent wins, even in spite of having two teams that are better in the same division. The upset is possible, and if this lineup keeps producing at this rate, it will become more and more of a certainty.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles are down a lot of their best pitchers right now, meaning one of their rare offseason signings is actually coming in handy right now.

That Familiar Feeling

 

I think this is the third straight year that the Angels have peaked in April. And it's been almost the exact same thing every time. A thrilling start from some young players, the veteran pitchers doing what they're paid for, the promise of a new star in the making, and then within seconds they hit a losing streak and Mike Trout hits the IL. It happens this year every April. They just get it out of the way, and the rest of the year is filled with abject mediocrity. Like, this year it was literally 'oh wow, they're 9-5 and taking down Houston, this could be turning around, what's that they're in last already?'

Because a lot of teams, like the Rockies, Pirates and White Sox, will infuriate fans with just how pathetic they can be, but the Angels keep giving the fanbase the illusion that they'll be good. They put money into the team, they have good prospects, they position a strong group of people...and yet it always leads to this garbage.

There are a few people on this team worth a damn, but they're not exactly in much position to turn the tide. Zach Neto might be the only person in this lineup doing everything he's supposed to. He's still in his prime, has 4 home runs and has been great at short. And the rotation trio of Tyler Anderson, Yusei Kikuchi and Jose Soriano has been pretty damn strong actually. Anderson's having another great season in Anaheim, with a 2-1 record, a 2.58 ERA and 39 Ks. This would be great even for a team that wasn't the Angels. Kikuchi, despite not having won a game yet, also has 39 Ks and a 0.9 WAR. Soriano, essentially auditioning for a spot on another rotation now, has a 4 ERA and 37 Ks. These guys, while generally at the mercy of the lineup, go deep and provide the needed cover. 

But...too many people on this team are just not playing well. Luis Rengifo, Taylor Ward, Nolan Schanuel, Reid Detmers, Travis d'Arnaud, Jo Adell...that's too many guys that were trusted to keep this team moving and just haven't. Ward, despite his 8 homers, is hitting .182. The theme of this team is that while there is power hitting, done by Trout and Ward and Jorge Soler, it's not pretty. Only three guys have an average over .250. Even Kyren Paris, after a fantastic April, has gone cold and his average is hurtling back towards .200. It's not pretty. Even without Trout and Rendon, which is kind of a given, the Angels just cannot get anything done.

It's more infuriating when you see teams like the Mariners and A's doing better, working towards the top of the division, while the Angels continue not to learn, even WITH Ron Washington. I'm not even sure what will work at this point. People are convinced that Trout coming back will save this team, and the way he was hitting before doesn't convince me too much.

Coming Tomorrow- There was a feeling, when he hit the majors after years in Triple-A, that he'd be a nice flukey, flash-in-the-pan story for a year. And now here he is six years later still leading the team and playing beautifully. 

To the Victor..

 

I will give the Cardinals credit for this: instead of completely buying into the controversy and giving us a season where they're at odds with Arenado and nothing's working, the Cardinals are a team of younger, scrappier contact players that also has Nolan Arenado contributing. This is a team that can work with or without Arenado, and as the trade rumors continue, it's no longer a truly horrifying thought. Because god forbid if Arenado goes, they can just plug Thomas Saggese or Nolan Gorman into third and keep on going. Everyone will be on the same page, there won't be a gaping hole. They'll just keep on rolling. 

The biggest stars of the season so far, besides Arenado, have been the guys you weren't thinking about. I mean, maybe you were thinking about Brendan Donovan, but he's not your textbook MLB star, at least not yet. People like Matthew Liberatore, Ivan Herrera, Kyle Leahy and Lars Nootbaar have been the most important factors into this season. Victor Scott, after some really unpleasant MLB tries, finally feels at home in the majors, leads the team in steals with 11 and is hitting .292. I think they were banking on Jordan Walker getting to that point but that really hasn't happened yet, so Scott's a very nice alternative. All of Scott, Masyn Winn and Thomas Saggese putting it together at once does make me very intrigued for the future of the team. It's no longer a messy assembly line of outfield prospects that have to be culled every year, it's finally blooming in a way that makes the most sense. 

Granted, it does make the other contracts stand out more. Willson Contreras is hitting .248 with 22 RBIs and 5 homers. It's not terrible, but we've seen him hit way better, and his 1st base skills aren't quite Goldschmidt-levels. Sonny Gray is 4-1 with a 3.50 ERA, and, again, we've seen better from this guy, even if he does have 47 strikeouts thus far. But you get the sense that most of the contracted guys, like Miles Mikolas, Steven Matz, Erick Fedde, even Ryan Helsley, will be gone next year anyhow and the team will progress naturally to replace them. Not that many of these guys are playing badly [Fedde just had a beautiful start against the Nats], I just know the Cardinals have guys that fit better with the current MO, and they'll lead to a more uniform, unified group. It may be another year away, but it's definitely in sight.

The one issue is that without Arenado, I'm not sure who's going to be responsible for most of the home runs. This is a very contact-heavy team, and hopefully someone, like Burleson or Gorman, will go on a tear naturally, but right now you're not really seeing much. It's not too much of an issue, but it could be if the nearest competition [the Cubs and Reds] is great with the long ball. 

The Cardinals have, for the moment, made it through the mid-division scrum and are in a decent position for now. It's uncertain whether or not the Reds or Brewers will find the leverage to flip things, but as of now the Cardinals are doing a lot right, and they're seeing what's possible if they tune out the noise and just do what they're supposed to.

Coming Tonight: I sometimes worry that when a flukey starter gets a multi-year deal, it won't come to fruition for whoever signs him, but the Angels have been pretty lucky with this one.