July 2024 in Review [feat. Willson Contreras]

 

The dust is settling on what was undoubtedly a very wild July, culminating in a very lively trade deadline. The picture shifted for a lot of teams, and the wild card picture is now a lot clearer as we head into the last two months of the year.

First, let's go back to the 5 predictions I made last month for July:

1. Something infuriating involving the All-Star Game. Not really. The replacements, roster-stocking and everything were really well handled this year.
2. A manager loses his job. Somehow no. Pedro Grifol arguably shouldn't have one, but everybody hung on.
3. Even 'Judge slowing down' still puts him on a scary pace in the home run race. Yeah, he's got 39 homers and 99 RBIs and there's two months left. We're all good.
4. Bryan Cashman conveniently schedules nap time for 4:00 PM on deadline day, again. Honestly? He got two great relievers and a prospect from Houston, and didn't sacrifice Verdugo or Cortes to get 'em. He did fine this year.
5. I am infuriated by a team entering the race on deadline day who should be playing far more conservatively. Somehow this did not happen this year. Nobody made a grand statement, or pulled more than their current status. Everybody played this pretty conservatively. What a concept!

Which does tie into the next section of this, 5 things about July 2024 that nobody could have predicted:

1. The Pirates are legit this year. There were shades of this, in Paul Skenes, in Reynolds' start, in fleeting moments. But in July, the Dodgers had big wins against the Mets, Brewers, Phillies and especially the Astros, who they embarrassed towards the end of the month. And in picking up IKF and Bryan de la Cruz, the Pirates established their desire to compete this year, which they honestly could do. The pitching staff truly is there, especially with Gonzales and Ortiz back and surging, and the lineup is even mightier now that Cruz and Taylor are both on tears. The Pirates are now firmly in 2nd place and heading the Brewers' way, and it could lead to a really cool end of the year.

2. The Rays sell, but still linger. Yes, on one hand the Rays parted with Zach Eflin, Amed Rosario, Isaac Paredes, Jason Adam, Shawn Armstrong, Randy Arozarena, Phil Maton and Aaron Civale this month. Those are all very big pieces, and they made the Rays competitive this year. Yet at the same time, they traded very wisely, and managed to get pieces like Christopher Morel, Dylan Carlson and Hunter Bigge for them. All while holding onto Brandon Lowe, Yandy Diaz and Pete Fairbanks, and securing the future by holding onto Taj Bradley, Shane Baz, Ryan Pepiot, and all the injured guys, one of which, Jeffrey Springs, just got activated. The Rays are still technically in the wild card race, and could feasibly stick around, even if they've lightened their load tremendously. 

3. Garrett Crochet and Luis Robert stay where they are. This honestly is the White Sox' fault. Everybody wanted Garrett Crochet, but Crochet spoke about wanting an extension to prevent against getting screwed in free agency upon an injury, so teams were told to stay away. They also really couldn't get anything going with Robert, even if multiple teams, including the Phillies, expressed interest. So even if the White Sox dealt a ton of great pieces, and already have several MLB-ready guys [Miguel Vargas] they got in return, they've forced the two biggest ones to ride out a last place year despite both preferring to play elsewhere. So that's not a great look. 

4. Blake Snell suddenly clicks into place. After months of injuries and rough starts, the real Blake Snell finally showed up in SF this month. In July, Snell held a tantalizingly low 0.75 ERA, with 30 strikeouts and only 2 runs over 4 starts. The sad part was that the Giants couldn't hand him a win in this period, leading to speculation that Snell would be traded [he wasn't.] But now that he's figured all of this out, he'll likely have an equally strong finish to the season, making himself known to teams on the off-chance he chooses to test free agency.

5. The hailstorm of power hitting in Oakland. The Phillies series was only one piece of it. The A's just went wild all month with power hitting. Lawrence Butler, Brent Rooker, J.J. Bleday, shit even DAZ CAMERON were reliable as power pieces this month. Butler was the biggest exclamation point, as, after having a slow start to the year, he caught fire early, first attacking the Phils and then taking it out on the rest of the league. He now has 12 homers for 2024, 10 of which happened in July. Rooker was just as good, and thankfully the A's were able to keep him. It may not mean anything in the long run, but it's been fantastic to see this team feel intimidating.

And on the other end of this, 5 things about July 2024 that a lot of people could have predicted:

1. The big guns let the gap even out. The Yankees, Phillies and Dodgers all slowed down this month, significantly in the case of the Dodgers and Yankees. This isn't season killing for any of the three, as they all made nice deadline moves, and the Yankees already seem to be heating up again. 

2. The cycle continues for Royce Lewis. Hit tons of home runs, get injured, get activated, hit tons of home runs. This is just how it goes.

3. The Cardinals add at the deadline while also subtracting. Sort of an opposite of the Rays. The Cardinals got big pieces in Tommy Pham and Erick Fedde, while also brushing some of the last regime, including Tommy Edman and Dylan Carlson, under the rug. They're like a snake, they've got to shed their previous youth movement every so often. Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman are just happy they're playing well I suppose. 

4. The Ranger Suarez story dies off. It was bound to happen eventually, and after getting rocked a few too many times, Suarez hit the IL. The good news is that Tyler Phillips has been awesome in a rotation spot. The bad news is that Kolby Allard hasn't. 

5. Jackson Holliday just needed a little time to figure things out. That grand slam upon activation is definitely a good sign. Here's to more of that energy. 

Now here are my picks for the 5 Most Important Players of July 2024:

1. Aaron Judge, New York Yankees

2. Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates

3. Shohei Ohtani, Los Angeles Dodgers

4. Tarik Skubal, Detroit Tigers

5. Jose Ramirez, Cleveland Guardians

And finally, 5 Bold Predictions for August 2024:

1. There is one specific team that is immediately aided by their trade deadline strategy.

2. I'll be specific for a change here: the return of several Rangers pitchers brings them right back into the race and spells doom for at least one AL West competitor.

3. A big team that had a tough July hits a second wind.

4. At least one more kick in the crotch for A's fans before the team leaves next month.

5. Something really silly happens around waiver wire deadline season.

So yeah, definitely a July to remember, now hopefully things pick up next month.