So every year, when I do these trade deadline posts, in addition to the ones where I can see what a GM was trying to do, and what strategy was in mine, there are some deals that I cannot fully support. Either they're trying to accomplish something that I cannot comprehend, or they're deals where one team thinks they're accomplishing something when in reality they're getting railed by a better GM without realizing it. Ultimately, if I can answer the question of 'did this trade really need to happen?' with 'no', it belongs on this list.
There were only a handful of these this year, ranging from puzzling to infuriating, but I think there's enough for a post. So let's start with pure confusion and work our way down.
Now, on paper, this is a decent enough depth move that serves a purpose. The Red Sox needed a defensive backup to cover for Connor Wong, their current backup was A.) better at a DH and B.) a genuinely horrific human being, and its karmic justice considering that this will be the second time that Danny Jansen has rendered Reece McGuire obsolete. But then you think about it, and...were the Red Sox really the best team to get Jansen? Could you make the argument that his services as a defensive backup would be better used somewhere like Milwaukee or Arizona? And then you think about the fact that the Sox already kinda have an heir apparent at catcher on the way, an extremely lethal double-A piece named Kyle Teel who's likely a year or so away. Jansen is a good rental piece I suppose, but I think they could have gone on at the same pace without much difference. I'd love to be proven wrong, and if Jansen goes on a tear this fall then I'll take it back.
-Trevor Rogers to the Orioles, Connor Norby and Kyle Stowers to the Marlins
So. You couldn't get Tarik Skubal.
That's the root of it for me. The Orioles already went and got Zach Eflin, which was an excellent move for them, and could have very easily kept going with Albert Suarez in that 5 spot. But they wanted a full upgrade, so they went with Trevor Rogers, who...while hot recently, has struggled mightily since his breakout rookie year in 2021. 2022 was a palpable step down, and last year was injury plagued. It took a bit more failure for Rogers to start figuring it out, and he ultimately leveled himself to a 4.53 ERA in 21 games. That, to me, is not worth Norby and Stowers, two guys who, while they don't have room in Baltimore at the moment, are still very crucial pieces. I'd even say that Stowers is more valuable to the Orioles than Jimenez, but...they went with this move because they needed a solid fifth starter. I do not think Rogers is as good as they're letting on, and I do not think he was worth two really good prospects, who will no doubt help repopulate Miami now. But yes, it did pave the way for Jackson Holliday, which...at the moment seems like a good move.
Now this only works if you absolutely belief the central theory that the Mariners this year are better off without Ty France. Which I absolutely disagree with. Yes, he's not as good as his peak years, but he still had 8 homers and 31 RBIs, and was at least something of an offensive boost, even in the weak periods. The Mariners really think they are better off with some combination of Justin Turner, who was DHing in Toronto for a reason, and Tyler Locklear, who has not proved himself to be MLB ready yet. France was at least a solid, somewhat trustworthy everyday option, and the Mariners thought they were better off with a more flexible arrangement. Which is definitely a gamble, considering that the Mariners are still trying to compete, and for a division as well. Giving France to the Reds, who could still feasibly make a run this year, is also a perplexing move. I just really hope for the M's sake that this was 3D chess kind of thing, or else they just vacated 1st base for no reason.
-Isaac Paredes to the Cubs, Christopher Morel and 2 prospects to the Rays.
The Chicago Cubs are currently in last place, careening quicker everyday despite a very nice performance last night against the Reds, and came extremely close to losing Jameson Taillon the other day. They are still dead set on competing, despite being very behind in the wild card race and still making very easy mistakes. And so the Cubs decided they were the team that needed to get Isaac Paredes, one of the best hitting infield pieces of the bunch. So...even if Isaac Paredes does help the Cubs this fall, I don't think it's enough to make them a playoff winning team. And meanwhile, you're not only giving more prospects to the Rays, which is literally exactly what they want, but now there's a nonzero chance they turn Christopher Morel into a star by releasing his full potential amidst a lower-stakes lineup. I know the Cubs wanted to level up with this but I don't see them winning this trade in the long run because this is exactly what the Rays wanted. You played into their hand.
Similarly,
-Dylan Carlson to the Rays, Shawn Armstrong to the Cardinals
This is like an arms deal between Skeletor and Darth Vader, it's really not gonna go well for anybody. It was clear that Dylan Carlson wanted out of St. Louis because A.) like many Cardinals from the Shildt era he didn't get along with Oli Marmol, and B.) he had no room to play amid the new regime. The Rays were selling but laterally. So with this deal, the Cardinals get bullpen help with Armstrong, and the Rays get a proven OF bat with Carlson. It's a decent enough move, but I don't like that its genesis is 'hey, this good outfielder doesn't wanna play here anymore'. If you're another team and you're hearing from a trade partner, 'will you take our players, they don't wanna play for us', then you have to think about the people you are sending...to the place where people want to be traded from. It's a little different for Armstrong, as given he's a reliever there's no doubt he'll get playing time. But it is kind of a worrying detail.
And let's end on the one that I literally begged teams not to do:
-Yusei Kikuchi to the Astros, Joey Loperfido, Jake Bloss and 1 other prospect to the Blue Jays.
So...the Astros didn't need pitching help. They just don't. There's enough people that will come off the IL anyway, and plus in scratching Bloss they learned that Tayler Scott can not only start games, but start them really well. They have enough starting innings. So why do they trade for Yusei Kikuchi, who's been terrible in the last couple months? Because they want to be the best. They trade for someone having a really weak year who plays for a team that's created a lovely little home environment for him...because they want to be the best. And in exchange, they give up not only one of their top outfield prospects, who did some decent work in the majors this year, but their top pitching prospect, who was JUUUUST getting the hang of major league hitting. How pissed d'you think Jake Bloss feels? He flies through the minors in a year, gets four starts with the team that drafted them and is immediately passed off for Yusei Kikuchi, who's gonna get lit up and be a relief piece in the playoffs while he suffers in Toronto. That is humiliating. Bloss will no doubt become a great pitcher, probably for the Jays, but he could have been given the opportunity to do so for a surging Astros team. And they got cocky and wanted Yusei Kikuchi.
If the Astros fall apart in the next couple years, it'll be because of deals like this. Because they valued one-upmanship over development. I hope they lose to the White Sox this month.
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