I swear, that's what the Cardinals are this year. Masyn Winn is the top bun, Ryan Helsley is the bottom bun, and there's a whole lot of nothing in the middle. .500 record with a month and change to go, 5 games back from a wild card spot, 10 games back from the division, the hero just hurt himself again and the rotation looks like an event organizer leading zumba at a retirement home. Everybody will go 'look at the Cardinals, the Cardinals are still a factor'.
...are they? Are they REALLY?
So just to put it into perspective, the rotation right now is Sonny Gray, who has 11 wins and 179 strikeouts but has been melting down late way too often, Miles Mikolas, who just doesn't have it this year despite leading the team in IP, Kyle Gibson, who's a solid enough innings eater but doesn't have much of an edge this year, Erick Fedde, whose numbers have curiously gone down since he was traded to an actual baseball team, and Andre Pallante, who once again has done tremendously upon being moved to the rotation and is 6-5 with a 3.52 ERA. Pallante currently is the looker of the group. You're looking at potential playoff series' against teams like the Braves, the Brewers, the Padres and the Diamondbacks, and that rotation isn't really winning out against those ones. Look, these are pitchers who've had great careers, and who've done great things even this year, but they're outmatched. Kyle Gibson is not at the point in his career where he can be handed the ball in a win-or-die playoff scenario. The Orioles knew this last year.
You've already seen the bits of the Cardinals lineup that were working earlier this year begin to decay. Nolan Gorman fell off and got demoted. Brendan Donovan's average fell to the .260s. Tommy Pham has mellowed incredibly since rejoining the team. Burleson's...fine I guess, but not as hot as he was in June. And now so many people are hurt that they're trying Jordan Walker and Victor Scott again, and, surprise surprise, they're still not MLB ready. Having one guy like that last year was disappointing enough, and now there's two. Arenado's doing way better than he was earlier in the year, but Goldy's very much looking past his prime.
And yet this team has a nonzero percent chance of landing a playoff spot. It's not the likeliest outcome, the Mets and Braves are still fighting over the last spot, but if they both fall apart the Cardinals would be the next at bat. And...I don't think they really deserve it. It's not the first time the Cardinals have weaseled into the conversation without the team to back it up, but they are notorious for catching a little momentum in September and using that to go long. This team, as flawed as it is, could do that. I don't think they will, but...this is the exact kind of team that COULD piss me off.
The Cardinals have to play the Padres, Yankees, Brewers and Mariners next. If they still look halfway decent after that, then we'll talk.
Coming Tonight: The last Mariners starter I haven't done a custom of yet.
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