This week, the two Western divisions came very close to flipping entirely. The Mariners were chasing the Astros in the AL, while the Padres briefly eclipsed the Dodgers in the NL. One of these has since been resolved, as the Padres were batted back down during their series with the Dodgers, but the Astros spent the weekend getting absolutely flambeed by the Orioles while the Mariners really only needed to just keep on target to not waste it. As I'm writing this, we're still waiting to see how the little league classic goes, and if it brings the Mariners within a half-game.
All I can say is that for a season that is succeeding now that the theme has become 'rejecting inevitability', it's a development I'd prefer. This season has seen big downswings for teams that were considered league superpowers heading into the season, like the Yankees, Astros, Mets, Braves and now the Dodgers. With one or two exceptions, the majority of the teams that competed heavily last year have struggled to deliver comparable follow-ups, citing atrophy, injuries or whatever the Yankees' excuse is this week. You're seeing exciting stories like the rise of the Blue Jays, the Brewers' incredible run, and wild card cases from the Reds, Red Sox, and possibly even the Marlins. That thrills me more than 'well it's the Dodgers again'.
So this Dodgers-Padres series was a bit of a bummer. At this point the Dodgers do have leverage, and were able to outdo even heroes like Manny Machado and Dylan Cease this weekend. The Padres' main issue right now is their rotation's back half. Beyond Pivetta, Cortes and Cease, there's a lot of unsteady ground. Yu Darvish is worth some Ks but he's a bit shakier than his heyday for the Padres. Cease, for the record, barely got through 3 innings against the Dodgers, as that lineup had him for breakfast. Despite 171 Ks, Cease is 5-11 with a 4.61 ERA. And the current strategy without King is to throw some pen guys out there and let Randy Vazquez do long relief rather than simply starting him. This is what happens when you give your two top starting prospects away for a catcher.
Fermin, by the way, has been an excellent upgrade behind the plate, and Ramon Laureano has had some nice games himself, already hitting .321 with 3 homers and 11 RBIs. Ryan O'Hearn, meanwhile, has run out of the magic that made him a star in Baltimore. He's only cracked 1 homer and 4 RBIs in 12 games. Not a great look at all. Furthermore, Mason Miller only has 1 start. I did not expect someone like Nestor Cortes or Freddy Fermin to be more pivotal to this team's success than Miller or O'Hearn. You really can never tell.
The Mariners have had slightly better luck with their additions. As has been well-documented, Eugenio Suarez is taking a bit more time than expected to get to Arizona levels of production, hitting .143 with 2 homers and 7 RBIs since joining the team. But Josh Naylor has been miles better, hitting .275 with 4 homers, 10 RBIs and 11 steals in 19 games. He has an .826 OPS already, higher than any Mariner who doesn't famously have a big ass. Naylor, as predicted, was exactly what this team needed, and has fit right into the lineup dynamic. Meanwhile, Raleigh's still rolling, with 46 homers and 100 RBIs, Randy and Julio are both headed towards 25 homer years [and 25 steal years] with aspirations of 30-30 years, and Cole Young seems to be a fixture in this lineup despite all that.
And even with all the dysfunction they had earlier in the year, the Mariners' lineup is rolling again. Bryan Woo, Luis Castillo and Logan Gilbert have put together great seasons, and George Kirby has been quickly catching up thanks to some excellent late-summer starts. This team also has a lot of really strong bullpen threats, and Caleb Ferguson's just the latest one. I genuinely think the Mariners are better put-together than the Astros, and have more to succeed with. They've struggled slightly against the Mets, but they still have the leverage.
Of these two, I think it's more likely to see a Mariners coup than a Padres one, but nothing's off the table.
Coming Tomorrow- Another team that pulled an insane coup in the AL East, and became a league superpower. This guy was out of the league last year and now he's their secret weapon.
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