The Sleeper Pick

 

Today, the Rangers won a game against the Cleveland Guardians, their nearest wild card competitor, and lapped them in the standings. They are now at .500, while Cleveland is now 1 game under .500. This puts the Rangers third in line for a wild card spot, and cements their status as the uncontrollable variable in the AL.

Honestly, this role has served them well before. In 2023 they spent a lot of time being the leader in the AL West, then upstairs demanded the Astros win the West again so they got hot midyear, and the Rangers swelled late to sneak into the playoffs anyway. As a lower wild card seed they outclassed their competitors and eventually took down the Astros to make, and win, a World Series. Then last year everybody got hurt and it didn't happen.

So as the Rangers begin to squeeze their way into a picture that was looking pretty solid before, it occurs to me that perhaps this is Bruce Bochy's new legacy. The Giants teams always took 1st in the West and rolled from there, save for the 2014 team which was a wild card pick that rolled. Then the Rangers was a wild card pick that rolled. Maybe...this is just what Bochy does now. He makes wild card teams into winners. He got a Rangers team to the finish by getting great seasons out of Jonah Heim, Josh Jung and Evan Carter, all of whom have been shakier since. Maybe now his legacy is getting a playoff team out of guys like Rowdy Tellez, Patrick Corbin, Josh Smith and Kyle Higashioka. 

What this does indicate is that some large pieces are gonna be out of commission. The Rangers just announced that Marcus Semien is likely missing the rest of the season. Semien, like usual, had a year where he stunk for the first two months then caught fire and became one of the team's best hitters. He'll finish the season with 108 hits, 62 RBIs and a 3.3 WAR, which isn't bad at all. Also currently missing are Evan Carter, Sam Haggerty and Jake Burger, who've been very helpful recently, and it's doubtful that Tyler Mahle will return this year. 

But the Rangers are still getting excellent quality from their biggest pieces. Nate Eovaldi has a 1.73 ERA, and it's a crime that more people aren't talking about him for a Cy Young. deGrom's having his fullest, and best, season in years, 10-5 with a 2.76 ERA. Merrill Kelly had an excellent start today and is on track to be a very useful starter down the stretch. Corey Seager's having another career year with a 5.6 WAR. Wyatt Langford is finally blossoming into the star the Rangers knew he'd be, with 19 homers and 52 RBIs. And now Tellez is heating up as well. 

There's still a lot of elements at play, like the Royals going at a steady enough pace, or the three teams in the spots at the moment not doing a ton of moving, but the Rangers are definitely a factor in this, and could still spoil some teams. We've got a month, crazier things have happened in a month.

Coming Tomorrow- A hard-hitting outfielder doing his best to move the needle slightly as the end of another non-contending season wraps up.