For a month of baseball missing roughly a week of play, a lot happened this July. The first three months gave the idea of a season that would go one specific way, and July twisted things on its head with new frontrunners, new heroes and new underdogs. Going into this month, both teams I root for were perceived as strong frontrunners, and uh...now that's not really the case.
So, let's look at the 5 predictions for July 2025 that I made a month ago:
1. At least one late All-Star roster addition that makes absolutely no sense. There were a few of these this year. The Miz being named after only starting 5 games. Adrian Morejon and Robert Suarez going because now none of the Saturday starters wanted to go.
2. The Dodgers get at least one crucial pitcher back, and he makes a difference. Glasnow is back, and he's been very reliable since activation. You could also throw Ohtani in here, and Snell will be back today. Granted, I don't think it was worth trading Dustin May.
3. The AL Central currently lacks an underdog competitor, with the Tigers out in front, and I say one emerges next month. Well...the Royals would really like you to think that it's them, judging by their deadline work and the fact that they bought while Cleveland, ahead of them in the standings, sold. Remains to be seen whether or not they'll do anything though.
4. Rafael Devers isn't the only guy that gets unceremoniously yanked out of Boston this summer. No, he is. The Sox got better so they didn't need to pawn off anymore people. Which makes the Devers thing even funnier.
5. Brian Cashman does something ridiculous. I mean, I personally think trading for three of the best bullpen pieces in the game, who immediately blow a 9-run lead, is pretty ridiculous.
So I was relatively spot on. Yet, despite that, here are 5 things from July 2025 that no one could predict:
1. The Brewers stage an epic coup. The Cubs have had enough of a stranglehold on the NL Central this year that I just assumed they'd roll, but their bullpen has completely caved in recently [which is what happens when your bullpen consists of a bunch of 35-year-olds]. While that's been happening, since June 17th, the Brewers are 28-9. Nobody has been better in this stretch. Christian Yelich has been his peak self, and now has 70 RBIs. Chourio was on a monster hitting streak before he got hurt. Woodruff and Peralta are throwing like it's 2021. Durbin and Collins have been excellent rookie additions. Today Brice Turang hit 2 homers. There are so many fantastic pieces to this team that even losing Chourio and Misiorowski for a little while probably won't kill their momentum. The Cubs will need a similar stretch to combat this, and that'll take a lot of things clicking.
2. The Yankees absolutely crater. I don't know why it keeps happening with these Aaron Boone teams, but at a certain point these Yankee teams just stop hitting. This month it was basically just Cody Bellinger and Ryan McMahon keeping the lights on. Judge was doing alright before he got hurt. Too many games were either lopsided or blown late. Then the deadline acquisitions didn't work in the bullpen. To add insult to injury, August has began with the Yanks getting killed by the Marlins. Something clearly has to give, and if the Yankees don't reclaim this season, a lot of people, namely Boone, are about to lose their jobs.
3. The Jays and Sox inherit the division. This was the other piece of the AL East drama that stands out, because the Jays and Sox aren't surging because the Yanks aren't. It's completely independent momentum. The Jays locked down a formula that works, including an old-school contact mentality in the lineup and a strong rotation led by Jose Berrios. They had enough pieces, dormant or no, that once the boom happened, all the guys who were struggling [Bichette, Schneider, Springer] all sprung to life and helped the team up. The Red Sox also rode a series of streaks to glory, won some really close games on hero-making walk-off moments, and have yet to regret keeping Jarren Duran right as his 2025 truly takes off. Even if the Yankees somehow comeback, this is a very convoluted divisional battle, and it's about to get even more interesting.
4. The big winners at the deadline are the Seattle Mariners. The Red Sox, Cubs and Padres were looking to accomplish more, but, like last year, the Mariners found themselves with enough momentum to compete and didn't want to miss any opportunities too. Their deals with Arizona netted them a supreme contact 1st baseman and one of the best power hitters in the game right now, himself a former Mariner. We know Suarez works in Seattle because he did two years ago, and already it seems like Naylor's working there as well. Even throwing in the comparatively minor addition of bullpen guy Caleb Ferguson, the Mariners got two really important lineup pieces, and did so as their MVP candidate catcher continues to mash and their star outfielder notched his 4th straight 20-20 season to begin his career. AND the Astros just got swept. This could be the season-making moment for them.
5. What the hell is Nick Kurtz doing?? Here are some facts about Nick Kurtz. He's from Lancaster, PA, which is why people call him the Big Amish. He was picked 4th overall last year, and made his debut of April of this year. He was good enough at 1st base to relegate the LAST home run hitting 1st baseman the A's had, Tyler Soderstrom, to the outfield. And in July alone, he hit .395 34 hits, 27 RBIs and 11 home runs, including 4 in one glorious game in Houston. Plus, now his 23 homers tie him for most on the A's, tied with Brent Rooker. Between Kurtz, Jacob Wilson and Denzel Clarke, the rookies in Sacramento have been telling the most clear story, and Kurtz alone is giving fans a lot of reasons to be excited.
And in opposition to those points, here's 5 Things from July 2025 that probably were predicted by a lot of people.
1. An Astros team this anonymous doesn't stay unopposed forever. It's very simple. If all the stars get injured and all that's left is a couple pitchers and a struggling Jose Altuve, you're gonna lose games. Carlos Correa's return was the 'break in case of emergency' move, and even that couldn't prevent the Red Sox from sweeping them. They have to play the Sox again in a couple weeks, after they're done with the red-hot Marlins and the Yankees, who've had a lot of fun with them in regular season play recently.
2. Phils-Mets is just gonna be a yearlong tussle. These are two very evenly-matched teams with a lot of similar issues. The Phils fixed a couple of theirs, like the back half of the lineup and its 9th inning vacancy, but even that couldn't get them past the Tigers in 2 games. The Mets also fixed their bullpen and snagged Cedric Mullins, but they were still neck and neck with the Giants all series. They're gonna ebb and flow the whole time, and it's likely that both teams make the playoffs.
3. Tarik Skubal's 2024 wasn't a fluke. I get the same feeling I got about Max Scherzer around 2013 or 2014, like it's not just a year thing, this is for real. Skubal's 2.09 ERA is currently lower than the 2.39 ERA that won him the Cy Young. Not even the Phillies could touch him yesterday. Skubal might just be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and teams are really gonna need to figure out how to handle him in the postseason.
4. Ronald Acuna was the magic hat for the Braves, and a barely effective one at that. The Braves were mediocre when Acuna was healthy, and now that he's hurt they're circling last. What a terrible season this has been for Atlanta.
5. The Twins give up. The only shocker here is that they didn't trade Joe Ryan. Years after their first playoff series win in years, the Twins gutted their team, trading Carlos Correa, Griffin Jax, Chris Paddack, Harrison Bader, Danny Coulombe, Brock Stewart and Willi Castro. Pieces remain, yes, but far less of them, and it'll be way harder for this team to compete going forward.
For posterity's sake, here are my 5 Most Important Players of July 2025
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