I've been trying to wrap my head around this for the last week, and it's still not completely making sense to me. So...the Royals bought in at the deadline, sustained enough of their team to go for a wild card spot, and they're currently 57-58, 4 games out from a spot. The Miami Marlins have become a surprise sleeper favorite, have been winning a ton of close series', and might be going for a spot themselves. They're 56-57, 6 games out from a wild card spot.
But the San Francisco Giants, who sold at the deadline, vivisected their bullpen and even gave a major piece TO THE ROYALS...are 58-57, above .500, and closer in the line of succession to a wild card spot than the Royals or the Marlins. I don't understand why Buster Posey and his committee thought that his team didn't have enough to go for it when they very clearly still have an outside chance of sneaking their way in. Was it just more cost effective to give up than to go for a run? Who knows.
The Royals have always been a 'they're right there but just don't have enough' team in the divisional race. The Tigers were always gonna be the favorite, and the Guardians had enough to chase teams even though they completely ran from what made them a success last year. The Royals had the team, but not the luck- Ragans got hurt, Bubic got hurt, Pasquantino's been *okay*, and Caglianone's been below replacement level since the call-up. This is a very okay team that happens to have some excellent performers lifting them. Bobby Witt Jr. is still elite, he's hitting .287 with 16 homers and 64 RBIs, and leads the league in doubles with 37. Carlos Estevez leads the league in saves with 28. Maikel Garcia proved he's got serious staying power. Noah Cameron's a rookie mop-up guy who can also have big-game starts. And Michael Wacha of all people has been having a strong, consistent year, with a 3.36 ERA and 98 Ks in 23 starts. The hope is that Bailey Falter comes around and provides that back-half security, but that first start was rough.
The bones of a good team are still there with the Royals. The only issue is that, as opposed to last year where they had a strong middle and road that to the playoffs, now they have to be the 2024 Tigers and get momentum late and sneak in on that. And that is very hard to do. Heck, the former strategy only worked so well for the Royals anyway last year. Their goal was to be better than the 2024 team, and I don't know if they are.
The Giants, meanwhile, made every effort to retool and get a leg up on the competition and it didn't initially work. That Willy Adames looks as good as he does now, with 18 homers and a team-leading 61 RBIs, shouldn't distract you from his very rough first two months. He's getting hot in a Giants uniform now, which is very good, but while the team was in the thick of the race he was struggling. The inverse of that is Jung-Hoo Lee, who was excellent in the earlier part of the season but took a downturn when the team did. He's now hitting .246 with a .737 OPS. Very average. And Rafael Devers has hit for power, but not as often as the team would like, with 5 homers and 20 RBIs in 43 games.
For the Giants to make a playoff spot, they'd need to fight against the luck the organization has made for them. That means continuing to ride a strong stretch from Dominic Smith, getting better innings out of Carson Whisenhunt and Justin Verlander, keeping Heliot Ramos producing for more than a second and not letting the loss of Yaz completely upend them. It will be very tough for this team to compete now that the brass has lost faith in them, but it's still possible.
What I'm saying is if, of these three teams, the one that makes the playoffs is the Marlins, I'll be very amused.
Coming Tomorrow- Catchers turned 1st basemen aren't that exotic anymore, but this is one that I'm still getting used to.
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