There have been a lot of unnecessary additions to rookie discourse, like teams intentionally keeping players down to control service time, Topps' unnecessarily early rookie cutoff only depicting Rookie of the Year stories that happen in the first one and a half months of the season, the entire 2020 season, where Devin Williams got an award for having a good August, and the very definition of what counts as a rookie season keeping players eligible for awards even after making a breakout impact. It's all a little bit broken, and it's kind of unfairly balanced against the players' side. I still don't think Luis Gil deserved a ROY award in 2024, because to me his rookie season was 2021, because that was the season where he set a rookie record.
But what's really complicated talking about rookies now is the unnecessary conditioning of pitchers to throw hard in their teens and overexert themselves to the point where, by the time they hit the majors, they're a ticking time-bomb waiting for Tommy John surgery. Nobody works their way up anymore, nobody embraces craftsmanship. It's all about smoke, because it's all about longballs. All extremes. So the rookie of the year, if it's a pitcher, is a lot of the times 'which pitcher went the longest without getting hurt'. Luis Gil was that and he wasn't even a rookie.
So it's gonna be very interesting to see how people talk about Andrew Painter this year. Andrew Painter is 100% a rookie, he's never played an MLB game, his likely Opening Day roster inclusion will mark his MLB debut. But with the way Painter's development has gone, I'm not even sure if this season will truly feel like a rookie campaign for him. Painter, a 2021 first-rounder, was looking MLB-ready for a 2023 debut, and then in Spring Training his arm started showing wear, and so he got Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2024, and was shaky in Lehigh Valley all last year, hence no call-up. If he had made the majors in 2023, if that damage was found a month or so later, then some of those 5.20 ERA Lehigh starts would have been major league starts, meaning 2026 would be primed for a comeback campaign, sort of like Casey Mize last year.
But because Painter never reached the majors, his comeback season at 23 will also be his rookie season. Meaning if, by some chance, Painter starts 32 games with a 3 ERA and wins a Rookie of the Year, which is not impossible, it'll have some very interesting subtext, a rookie season with the energy of a post-TJ comeback season. How will it be judged? How will PAINTER be judged going forward?
If any Phillies season would need a dominant Andrew Painter season, it would be this one. Ranger Suarez is gone, Zack Wheeler might still miss some starts, Aaron Nola might be past his prime, and it's really looking like Taijuan Walker might be relied upon for a bit. In a scenario where Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Nola and Walker are rounding out the Opening Day rotation, and the Phillies want to remain a match against the Mets and Braves, they need Painter as a great MLB option. It's a lot of pressure, yes, but seeing as Painter's been terrific went healthy, and went 13th overall for a reason, it could work out. The thing I think is troublesome is the fact that for the Phillies to retain dominance, they need Painter to get MLB hitting immediately, and I'm not 100% sure of that yet.
The Phillies have the appearance of a team beckoning on diminishing returns, with no real new blood and a lot of core people hoping to shake off rumors of going past their prime. Andrew Painter, and for that matter Justin Crawford and the potential of an Aidan Miller debut, could quiet that. If there's a successful shift to the next era, the Phillies could remain a league superpower in the same way the Astros have, just persisting. It just takes a lot going right this year, and a full, healthy season from Painter is a huge part of that.