Cease on Earth

 

So let's ignore for a moment...that the Blue Jays got the snot beaten out of them yesterday by the Colorado Rockies, and let's ignore that it happened because Cody Ponce immediately got hurt in his return to US pitching and handed it to a bullpen that completely collapsed given the opportunity to leg out the rest of the game, and let's also ignore that the Rockies went 0-3 against the Marlins and took it out on the Jays in a very similar manner to the 2024 Astros after getting swept by the Yankees, and while we're at it let's also blind ourselves to the fact that the starting pitcher that kept this team down was Tomoyuki Sugano, who 2025 Jays batters had a .291 average against with 16 hits and 2 homers in 3 games. 

Let's...ignore all that. The Jays began the 2026 season against the Oakland Athletics, a team that was actually expected to improve this year, and who are currently the only 0-4 team remaining. The Jays were able to diminish the output of Nick Kurtz, Brent Rooker, Jacob Wilson and Lawrence Butler. Regardless of how the A's are able to even out, that still takes a fair amount of skill.

I am still of the belief that the scrappy play that got the Jays to a World Series last year is only gonna work that once. Both Addison Barger and Nathan Lukes are still hitless, Alejandro Kirk's sole hit so far has been a homer, and even with Andres Gimenez hitting up a storm, the absence of Bo Bichette still casts a large shadow on this team. I think they're just gonna have to alter their approach a bit this year, and actually shift to a more traditional lineup rather than the army of fill-ins that led them to compete. The additions of both Jesus Sanchez and Kazuma Okamoto lead me to believe that while contact is still possible, it may just need to be a bit more balanced now, and a bit less unpolished. Okamoto can hit home runs and help out with contact, and Sanchez's OPS is telling me he's branched out as well. We'll just see how sustainable it is.

Currently unquestionable though is the degree of excellence in that rotation. Gausman and Cease both had terrific opening starts, with Gausman proving he can still be dominant even in his mid-30s, and Cease proving the K rate isn't the only takeaway, regardless of how things go the third time through the lineup. I do think Cease and the Jays are ideal for each other, and he's better off someplace like Toronto than weighing out San Diego. While I do think the team will really appreciate it when Yesavage and Bieber come back, Eric Lauer is still a perfectly fine starting option, Max Scherzer came back for a reason, and I'm guessing either Ricky Tiedemann or Jake Bloss will fill in sufficiently in Ponce's stead. 

Right now, even with the Rockies loss in their rearview, the Jays look like the team to beat in the AL East. Yes, I'm aware that the Yankees also had a nice start. I'm just waiting to see how long it takes for their offense to come back after last night. 

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of the Rockies, a trusty infield bat for the team that made them start 0-3.

18 and Life

 

The Dodgers, this week, are gonna become the first team in history to start 3 Japanese pitchers in a row. Roki Sasaki tonight, Shohei tomorrow, and Yamamoto Wednesday. It's genuinely amazing to see a team go all-in on Japanese pitching, and it's cool that it's the Dodgers, who technically re-started the trend in '95 by bringing over Hideo Nomo, and later Kasuhisa Ishii, doing it. This, in combination with the use of Hyeseong Kim as an infield piece, have made the Dodgers one of the most internationally-friendly teams out there.

And it might be an exciting narrative if the Dodgers weren't already the far-and-away favorite to win the World Series. 

Look, as it's the third year of this, I've tried to get my feelings on this to atrophy a bit, because I feel bad. I don't HATE the Dodgers, they develop great teams and their heroes are hard to hate. It's the wealth disparity thing I dislike. This offseason the Mets spent a great deal to try and catch LA, and other teams like the Cubs and Yankees still put the money up for things like this. But the Dodgers still have one of the best teams, and used the offseason to get Edwin Diaz, one of the best closers in the bigs, and Kyle Tucker, one of the best outfield bats out there. All the things that are leaving the Dodgers are things they no longer have a use for, all the main pieces are still in their prime, and all the people joining the team are excellent. Generally, if the best team wins it all, it's not the most exciting outcome, especially when they're already spending more than anyone else. 

Now again, it's not just spending, it's the rubber hitting the road. And so far, the Dodgers, given a series against an easy team like Arizona, are undefeated. They've done this, strangely, without much offensive production from Shohei Ohtani, Kyle Tucker, Mookie Betts and Teoscar Hernandez. That's...the bulk of the power. And they're still winning games, just off contact and some of the other stars. Alex Freeland's already making waves coming in on Miguel Rojas's position, the bullpen has yet to give up an earned run, and Will Smith leads the team in RBIs with 5. 

And they've held it down with some great starting performances so far. Tyler Glasnow and Yoshinobu Yamamoto have held up the top of the rotation well, both going 6 with 6 Ks. Yoshi is gonna be relied upon as the ace this year, and I think he's fully able to take that on. Honestly, Blake Snell might settle into that 3 spot when he come back, and Emmet Sheehan, unless he recovers, might be relegated to a swingman role. There's much worse guys to hand the ball to in a big game than Yamamoto, and I'm so glad he's become a great MLB option after a strong Japanese career. 

I think the Dodgers are already proving that they can build a competitor even if it's not the ways you're thinking they will. I think they can afford some slow starts provided everything comes together by September. I think it'll be great for history if they can win a third. Maybe not for me specifically, or for people that like interesting developments, but it's been years since the Yankees dynasty, or the Giants', and maybe it's just needed now. 

Coming Tomorrow- He throws smoke, he gets the job done, and he leaves teams right at the moment they stop winning games.

Dom Voyage

 

Everything I saw about the Italian national team in the WBC just made me happy. Cause it was always tinged with 'LOOK AT THESE FUN DUDES'. You've got Jac Caglianone, Dominic Canzone, Michael Lorenzen, Vinnie Pasquantino, Aaron Nola and Jakob Marsee, they're all hangin out and upsetting games and you can't not love that. It's also illegal to not enjoy a team coached by Sal Fasano and Jorge Posada and managed by Francisco Cervelli. I'm not Italian but I was rooting for those guys after a while. And when I couldn't love them enough, Pasquantino brings out the espresso machine, which all the money from went towards local autism charities. Like, COME ON. 

And it was so welcome compared to the US team, which was devoutly serious. They did that tournament like they were preparing for war. Country music blaring, no joking around, 'this is a job to do'. And the 2017 team was so much fun. Granted, there were a few more non-white people on that team, so uh...draw your own conclusions. Like, there's a reason Cal Raleigh got absolutely clowned on for refusing a handshake from Randy Arozarena. Randy understands that this tournament is for bragging rights, and it's mostly just a fun time with your contemporaries from the same country, it's about national pride. It's not a frigging land operation. 

I just think it's really cool that Dominic Canzone goes from the feel good team of the WBC to a truly exciting Mariners team. You know, ya whetted your appetite, you got your reps in, and then you go and play outfield for the guys looking to win the AL West. Keep in mind, the Arozarena-Raleigh thing is still dying down, and Raleigh's been struggling to find his 2025 swing, but there in the corner is Dominic Canzone just doing his thing, he's got 2 hits so far, both of them homers, and 3 RBIs. Sometimes you need a fun vibes guy like that when everything's fraught. Canzone is sharing right with Luke Raley pretty much but both guys are off to nice starts. The idea, I'm guessing is for Canzone to take the majority of starts at RF, Raley to platoon at DH with Rob Refsnyder, and the younger infield to keep things cool. Even without J.P. Crawford I'm confident this team has the pieces to hold things down, with Rivas and Young and all.

Right now there's the slightest bit of concern with the Mariners, as even if they've stayed toe-to-toe with Cleveland they've dropped 2 very close games, both thanks in part to Chase De Lauter coming alive late. The bullpen is not as strong as last year, and Eduard Bazardo, Gabe Speier and Andres Munoz have struggled putting games away. Josh Naylor has yet to register a hit, and Cal Raleigh only just got started. Julio Rodriguez is also off to a slow start, but...that's kinda normal for him honestly. Midway through May he springs to life and takes off, that's his thing. 

I'm still very confident the Mariners can get something done this year, but they need to clean up some of these early stumbling points, including the usually-strong pitching. I'd love for them to repeat as AL West champs, but this year they have competition, and the Astros probably want revenge or something silly like that. So we'll see how things end up.

Coming Tomorrow- Speaking of Italy, someone recently asked me if Mario is canonically a Dodgers fan. Which confused me. And then he showed me an official Dodgers promotion for a bobblehead of Yoshi, from the Mario games, in a Dodgers uniform, wearing #18. And I had to go 'oh, nonononono. Y'see, there's this guy on the Dodgers...'

Miz-ery Business

 

Here's a fun fact about the Milwaukee Brewers, looking to defend their momentous NL Central championship from last year: only one person who's played in a game for the team so far is over 30. Christian Yelich. Obviously there are a couple others on the pitching staff who haven't appeared yet, Jared Koenig and Trevor Megill and Brandon Woodruff, but this is a very young team. The Cardinals are similarly young, but there's not a single all-star to be found on that team, whereas the Brewers have Contreras and Yelich and Sanchez and the Miz. And that's the thing: this may be a young team, but there's still infrastructure. I genuinely believe that they've built enough to get them far.

Now, again, after the trades this team made to get the payroll down, that may seem ambitious. Not only is Freddy Peralta, the staff ace, gone, but so are Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins, two guys that could have been young stars going forward. But the idea I'm getting is that they have so many young pieces that they want to build properly and not trap guys that could be MLB options under perennial stars, or the Jasson Dominguez tract as it's known in the biz. Therefore, Collins gets dealt so Frelick, Mitchell and Lockridge can play, Durbin gets dealt so there's eventually room for Jett Williams and Jesus Made, and Peralta's dealt so Henderson, Miz and even Carlos Rodriguez can see starting time. So even without those pieces, the Brewers can still stand a chance, as they have so far.

The Miz start on Thursday was the stuff legends are made of. He gives up a home run early, fine, but he locks in, K's 11 and cements his place at the top of the rotation. There was some hesitation putting Miz out there Game 1, as the Brewers have Brandon Woodruff, and could have leaned on veteran presence rather than putting the kids out there immediately. But Misiorowski does have the stuff, and the controlled innings last year gave him enough juice to power through a full year this year. The optimal idea would be for Henderson, Chad Patrick and potentially Robert Gasser and Quinn Priester to line up behind Miz for a formidable rotation going forward. It's really just a matter of if all these guys are durable. 

I also look at somebody like Joey Ortiz, who's very much a placeholder til Williams and Made are here. Ortiz put in the work to improve at the plate during the spring, and he's already got 3 hits and 2 RBI as I write this to begin the season. Even if he knows he's cannon fodder once the prospects are ready, he's performing better than he has to date, and he wants to make this team great. Same with David Hamilton, he's clearly filling third for the time being, but he's got even more perks than he did in Boston, and has the needed contact prowess to fit in with this team. I put Lockridge into that category as well- like last year, he's filling in for Jackson Chourio, but he's excellent in the outfield and he gets on base. He's gotta be valuable while he can.

The big indication that the rebuild will happen as the team's competing was the news today that Jeferson Quero's joining the team, filling in for Andrew Vaughn. What this allows for, I'm guessing is for Gary Sanchez to DH more often, Jake Bauers to cover 1st more often, and Quero to become the go-to backup catcher. Quero was this team's big prospect before Made came along, and I'd love to see Quero cash in the second he gets the chance and give this team even more stability at a position that previously seemed a non-issue. 

So yeah, even if some of the exclamation point has dissipated, this is still a very strong Brewers team, and I still see them accomplishing great things this year, despite the competition. 

Coming Tomorrow- Fresh off surprising a lot of people in the WBC, he settles in as a reliable depth option for another reigning champ.

Why Wait?

 

I think we can all agree that Opening Day of 2026 was a net loss for the Pittsburgh Pirates on more levels than anyone previously thought.

Not only does Paul Skenes get chased, not only does Oneil Cruz crap out, not only is the bullpen not there yet, but by the end of that first day you see universally that the only team to not give a big rookie prospect a day 1 shot may have been the Pittsburgh Pirates. Who held Konnor Griffin back for the service perks, like usual. Looking around at the rest of the league, you're seeing immediate success from rookie call-ups, or rookie leave-ups, and while the Pirates did bring Hunter Barco with them to the bigs, Griffin is still trapped behind Nick Gonzales and probably won't make the bigs til mid-to-late April, or whenever Topps' Update cutoff is. 

So...let's rub it in some more and talk about the guys that did super well yesterday on call-ups:

-Kevin McGonigle, Tigers. The big one. In game one, the Delaware County native went 4-for-5 with 2 RBIs, 2 doubles and 2 runs. Right from the start of spring training basically, all anyone heard about was how this guy was on the way to greatness, even on a squad that still has Max Clark coming soon. Giving McGonigle shortstop out of camp, even with Jace Jung still on the team, seems to be the way forward, and if the rest of this season is as good as that game was, the Tigers might be alright.

-J.J. Wetherholt, Cardinals. Another young infielder, this one the prized Cardinals prospect, a former 7th overall pick, and a rare Cardinals farmhand not netted in a firesale. Wetherholt took over from Brendan Donovan's run at 2nd with a bang, hitting a homer in his first at-bat, and finishing the day with 2 RBIs. The Cardinals' eventual comeback victory over Tampa doesn't happen without Wetherholt being the forerunner. Already fans are excited about this guy, and in a season without any clear veteran presence, what's not to be excited about?

Chase de Lauter, Guardians. The outfield bat made his debut during the 2025 postseason, so yesterday's opener against Seattle was technically de Lauter's regular season debut. He made it count, with a TWO-HOMER GAME, the second of which coming late enough to be the difference-maker. 

Justin Crawford, Phillies. For about a year now it's been clear that Crawford, the slap-hitting CF speedster son of Carl, was on the way, and the hope was that we wouldn't deal him before he got to the bigs. Lo and behold, a spot was paved directly for him to start the season, and his debut against Texas came with 2 hits and a run. Dude did exactly what he came to do, and was part of an excellent Opening Day win.

Sal Stewart, Reds. Crucially, this corner infield phenom for Cincinnati is a bench bat for my fantasy team this year, and I wanted him to get off to a decent start for that reason, in addition to reestablishing the full-team stronghold for the Reds. Even against a dominant Red Sox team, Stewart still had a very productive day, going three for four with 2 doubles. The Reds had only 4 hits in that game, and Stewart alone was responsible for 3 of them.

Carson Benge, Mets. If Mike Tauchman doesn't get injured, I'm not certain Benge, the well-hyped outfield bat for the Mets, gets this opportunity, but given a starting spot in a crowded Mets lineup yesterday he still had time for his first ever career homer, making Lindor and Bichette the only hitless Mets v. Pittsburgh.

So that tells you everything you need to know. If all those guys can allow for young players to start day 1 and be the hero, the Pirates have absolutely no excuse. As usual.

Coming Tomorrow- I got very worried when he gave up a home run immediately yesterday, but 10 strikeouts later I was a lot more at ease.

2026: Nothing is Immovable

 

The first game of the day I was able to watch was Mets-Pirates. I think stagnating the day as they did was a little odd, as they could have just done a bunch at 1 and a bunch at 7. Doing one game at 1, and it being Mets-Pirates...I mean, I get that it's a cool matchup, but don't you want to do some other ones as well? A little variety on the first real day of the season? I dunno, they seem to want to do it this way, and...fine. At least they put a game on NBC so people could actually watch it. 

But I did end up watching Mets-Pirates, because it felt like however way it went would be cool. I was of the opinion that Skenes would shut down the Mets' offense and the bullpen would blow it, and Peralta would be strong but not be ironclad against the improved Pirates offense. I was half right. Peralta gave up 2 homers to Brandon Lowe, and a solo shot to Ryan O'Hearn. The new guys did exactly what they were brought there to do, and that makes me feel better overall about the Pirates.

But...Paul Skenes could not get out of inning one. Against the Mets. Not that the Mets are bad, it's just the sort of older, high-risk/high-reward team he could do well against. But the combination of Skenes giving up easy ones and Oneil Cruz not being in position to cast them cost the Pirates 5 runs, and the bullpen cost the Pirates even more. 

The telling stat is this one- without that first inning, the Pirates win the game. If either Skenes doesn't struggle or Yohan Ramirez starts the game, that's 5 runs erased. And even if the Pirates bullpen, mostly Isaac Mattson, gives up even more runs, including the first career homer for Carson Benge, they still outscore the Mets. Freddy Peralta, strong as he was [comparatively], gave up 4 runs, Tobias Myers gave up 1 and Luis Garcia gave up 2 more. If there isn't a lead they need to be padding, they lose a game 7-6 to the Pirates on Opening Day. 

The moral, thereby, other than to always keep fighting, is that even the idea of putting Paul Skenes and Freddy Peralta in a position to succeed doesn't guarantee an outcome. Skenes can still struggle, Peralta can still struggle, and the offenses can still come alive. Nothing is guaranteed, not even Paul Skenes. 

It'll be interesting to see how both teams learn from today. For the Pirates, the game they could rely upon wasn't even a gimme, and they couldn't get it done, despite the continued offensive support. For the Mets, they outdueled a titan and found success with Bichette and Polanco at new positions...but they still allowed 7 runs, even with their best starter on the mound. If the wins are gonna be this close, they need to solve the problem before it ruins them, like last year. 

Regardless, this game was an excellent pacesetter for the season. The rest of the day was full of epic rookie debuts, huge HR moments and incredible pitching [especially in Milwaukee]. And it gives an idea of just how exciting this season's about to be. I'm here for it, for sure. 

As the Curtain Arraezes...

 

It's the autism in me that makes this as obvious as it is, but to all of the people with the belief of 'the real Opening Day isn't until tomorrow', the first game of the season is being played tonight. Thereby...it opens the season. So today is Opening Day. I'm sorry I've avoided the nuance, but that's just how I see it.

Starting the season with Yankees-Giants is odd but somewhat understandable. These two teams did, in fact, used to play just down the road from each other. I've said that I come from a long line of Yankee fans, but the truth is my grandfather came from a long line of New York Giants fans. The last time the Yankees began the season playing the Giants was, if you'll recall, 2023, and the rumor going into the offseason was that this was planned with the knowledge that San Francisco was where then-free-agent Aaron Judge was favoring [given it's near home and all]. Henceforth, the Giants-Yanks series on a yearly basis has been dubbed, by me at least, the Arson Judge Classic. Because the Giants thought they'd be starting the season with Judge, and they started the season, instead, with Blake Sabol.

Now, 3 years later...not a ton has changed. The Giants have a new manager, Tony Vitello, trying to establish more of a college-coach-to-MLB-coach pipeline, and he's hoping to be more of a Jim Harbaugh and less of a Chip Kelly. But aside from that, it's two teams with similar strategies and different luck. Both teams are using money and roster building to stick themselves into an already crowded divisional setup- the Yankees have had more success, and look to be a major contender this year, while the Giants still haven't made the playoffs since Posey retired. If he gets in the Hall of Fame next year it'll be even more damning. 

It's not like the Giants don't try, they've brought genuine talent to the bay, and have Matt Chapman, Willy Adames, Jung Ho Lee and now Willy Adames in prime position. It's the development that's been really an issue. Joey Bart was a slam dunk, now he's a DH in Pittsburgh. Marco Luciano was supposed to be the next OF star, he's now swimming around the Yankees minor league system. Hayden Birdsong and Kyle Harrison were primed for starring roles, now Birdsong is out til next May and Harrison is hoping to get playing time in Milwaukee. When Drew Gilbert, another big time prospect, struggled upon a 2025 call-up, I saw the trend very plainly. I get that the new Posey regime is trying to jumpstart things, but none of these prospects have taken to the bigs as they should have. Even Heliot Ramos took like 3 extra years to craft major league success, and even still he's faded into the background more than one would hope for. 

And so here we are, starting 2026 with no real prospect guys having any part in the 26-man roster. Drew Gilbert did not make it. Bryce Eldridge did not make it. Carson Whisenhunt, despite being 3rd in the depth chart, did not make it. The only person making a debut this series is Daniel Susac, and he's their Rule 5 guy. I get the idea that so many more trustworthy MLB options are in front of them for positions, but need I remind you that this team is hoping to contend for 2nd or 3rd. We're already at 'IF this works' territory, and this is a team with Rafael Devers, Luis Arraez and Matt Chapman on it. 

So I'm really intrigued by how the Giants are gonna look against this Yankee team, who also have something to prove, but far less. All the Yankees are trying to do is prove their bullpen's better, the four-man rotation is a working concept and keeping Dominguez and Jones down is a good idea. Both teams are gonna learn right away just how much work they're gonna need to do from now til September. And hopefully the Giants can get closer than they've been in a while to actual legitimacy. 

That said, may it be a fun Opening series, and may everybody stay healthy and play their best.

The Last Few Burning Questions of Spring

 

The last few exhibition games are being played out tonight, to get the last few trials in before the real ones. The final cuts are currently being made, call-ups are being announced, and we're finally ready to get the season moving before there's no season to play. It's the most exciting moment of a season, because it's the last moment where there's still potential energy, before the sobering reality hits. And then the colors mute, the cold returns, and the season runs ahead. 

I've still got a couple more customs from Spring Training to dole out, and so from there, let's examine some of the last few lingering concerns and loose threads that might be at play during the 2026 season.

-Does Ranger Suarez mean the Red Sox' rotation is for real? On paper, the combination of Garrett Crochet, Sonny Gray, Ranger Suarez, Brayan Bello and Connelly Early looks good, but with the exception of Early, all of these guys have shown downsides in recent history. Gray's coming off a down year, Suarez struggled to come back fully after the hand injury, Bello's ERA stayed plainly around 4.50 for a while, and Crochet was in injury hell for a while. How likely will it be that everything clicks at once? Luckily, Johan Oviedo, Payton Tolle and Kutter Crawford are around in case something goes wrong.

-Will Kevin McGonigle succeed where other Tigers infield prospects haven't? Trey Sweeney and Jace Jung, two infield prospects that looked like hits, both failed to make the team out of camp. Colt Keith still has second for now, and Zach McKinstry is mostly an interloper. The future is paved for McGonigle and Clark, but will they take advantage of the moment or end up like Jung, Sweeney, Ryan Kreidler and more?

-Is the world ready for a decidedly non-competitive Cardinals team? Despite the complete lack of star power, the entirely decimated pitching staff, and the reliance on guys like Masyn Winn and Ivan Herrera to provide some form of normalcy, many pundits are still predicting the Cardinals will finish with more wins than the Pirates. Even with substantial evidence that Oli Marmol is well past his expiry date. It's not like the Patriots where it can just suddenly happen overnight. J.J. Wetherholt is likely very good at baseball, but is he gonna be enough to get anyone to care about this team? 

-Similarly, will THIS team be the Angels team that brings non-Ohtani relevance back to Anaheim? A lot of the pieces that worked separately in 2025 are still intact. Trout will be healthy and ready to go, Neto's onto another stage of his peak, Adell can finally power-hit in the majors, now Grayson Rodriguez has a place to pitch, Logan O'Hoppe looks to have a strong year, Soler's healthy. If all goes according to plan, the Angels could surprise some people. But in a division with the Mariners, A's and Astros, will they be able to get anything done?

-Has the injury bug already doomed the Braves before the year can even get going? Yesterday Spencer Strider was announced as an injured piece. The team already knew they'd be without Spencer Schwellenbach, Hurston Waldrep, Ha-Seong Kim and Joey Wentz for a while. This team also has Chris Sale, Reynaldo Lopez, Austin Riley, Mike Yastrzemski and Martin Perez on it. And Ronald Acuna is back, but who knows if he'll be at full capacity this year. Even if there's more reinforcements this year with that possibility in mind, will they have enough to keep them in the mix all year, or will they be running on fumes by August once again?

Will the White Sox finally lap the Twins in a battle for least inept team in the AL Central? Believe me, the White Sox have had a nice head start and had some truly terrible seasons, but the Pohlads completely have up and the Twins now consist of Byron Buxton, Joe Ryan and a bag of chips. Even with strong second-year infielder Luke Keaschall gearing up for a more dominant full season, the Twins don't have much at all this year. Pablo Lopez is hurt, none of the young core has developed, Royce Lewis still spends 2 months on the IL every year. Do the Twins have enough accumulated to outdo the White Sox's smarty-built younger squad?

-Are the Rockies looking at another year firmly on the bottom? I don't really see any evidence that suggests otherwise. Some of these rookies look decent, Kyle Karros and Chase Dollander and Zac Veen, plus the possibility of Charlie Condon and Roc Riggio sometime soon. But man, there really is nothing to this team, even still. And they have to play a ton of games against the Dodgers and Padres. Will there be anything at all that will be seen as an improvement by year's end?

-How off-kilter is the Nationals rotation going to be? In years' past it's been pretty straightforward, the young core of MacKenzie Gore, Mitch Parker, Jake Irvin and D.J. Herz, plus assistance from Trevor Williams. Now it's taken a turn. Josiah Gray was set to make his comeback after 2 years of injuries, but apparently that's not happening for a while. So what's left? Is Cade Cavalli ace material? Does Miles Mikolas have anything left? Did the other 29 teams pass on Zack Littell for any specific reason? Is Foster Griffin a viable MLB option? And is there any place for Cole Irvin, and eventually Herz and Parker, on this shifting team?

-What are the Rays getting at now? At last they get a working core, with Caminero, Aranda and Lowe all propelling them forward, and then Lowe, Mangum, Fairbanks, Josh Lowe and Baz all end up elsewhere. Is it possible that the Rays were closer to competing before than they are now? Even with Chandler Simpson, Carson Williams and Ben Williamson looking to make strides this year, the holes are apparent. If the Rays actually wanted to build a team without needing to save money, they definitely had the opportunity to. Will this season, and an impending lockout, give the Rays any incentive whatsoever to attempt to build a perennial competitor?

Just food for thought, I suppose. Tomorrow night we kick this whole thing off.

On the Verge [Once Again]

 
It's weird that one of the themes of the 2020s in general have been 'the Marlins and Reds are good enough to contend but not good enough to ever do anything', but here we are. 

That's why I think the first year of this decade having an expanded playoff field was absolutely wild, because in a sense it illuminated not only the passing fads of the time [the White Sox, Ross Cubs and the A's], but it revealed the sort of teams that could be something if it were 18 teams every year. Of course, that year, both the Reds and Marlins made it, and if you'll recall the Marlins actually beat the Cubs in a playoff series, eventually getting swept by the Braves because how can you not?? Since then, both teams have flirted with long-term success, with the 2023 Marlins making a Wild Card series but getting embarrassed by the Phillies, and last year's Reds getting immediately bounced by the Dodgers. 

But both teams have regularly been in playoff conversations. The Reds have the angle of 'they're in a tough division but look at what they have'. Any playoff push that involves Elly de la Cruz and Hunter Greene is gonna get eyes on it, and last year with help from Ke'Bryan Hayes, Zack Littell and Miguel Andujar, they were right there with the other wild card hopefuls. You can also see them continuing to build a long term competitor, calling up Sal Stewart late last year and banking on both Rhett Lowder and Chase Burns for crucial 2026 roles, plus the addition of Eugenio Suarez back in the heart of that lineup. Yet, again, thanks to the Brewers and Cubs they are a borderline playoff team, and this is a year where they might have to work extra hard to keep the Pirates at bay. 

The Marlins have been competitive less frequently, but when it does happen it's always a fun burst of energy. Last year the team was a late wild card spoiler that failed to fully materialize, and as a result the team lost Edward Cabrera, Ryan Weathers, Dane Myers, Eric Wagaman and Troy Johnston. The joy of this team is there's a ton of young options that can pop right up and take over, and Owen Caissie, Heriberto Hernandez and Graham Pauley are all in play for crucial positions. The core of the team is still a sneakily effective young mix of former organizational castoffs, including Otto Lopez, Xavier Edwards, Kyle Stowers, Jakob Marsee and Agustin Ramirez. Griffin Conine, Connor Norby and Eury Perez are eyeing full breakout seasons. Even in a division as tough as the NL East, you can never completely count out the Marlins, and even if it requires less-than-dignified means, the Marlins can power their way through some insane wins.

Not that it'll be easy for either team. The Reds will begin the season without Hunter Greene, and the Marlins just lost Kyle Stowers for a few weeks. But the fact that we're talking about this possibility at all means it hasn't been completely counted out. The Mets could bottom out again in August, as could the Cubs. Both the Reds and the Marlins can take advantage of a lull, and make it their own. It'll be interesting to see if this can happen for either, or both, this year.

The Strangest Sights of Spring

 

Prior to 2026, Andrew McCutchen had spent approximately 3 months of his 16-year career on American League team, that fun autumn with the 2018 Yankees. Everyone assumed he'd retire as a Pittsburgh Pirate. However, Bob Nutting, in finally putting money into the team and building something of a competitor for 2026, did so at the expense of the fans, who would have loved to keep getting to see Cutch. In his place, the Pirates now have Marcell Ozuna at DH, which is arguably more value and WAR, but a much less likable player with a much more suspect track record.

And so now Cutch had to soldier on the only way he knew how, by putting out feelers for any other teams that needed veteran help and trying to make the club that way. The Rangers bit, and now we have the bizarre sight of Andrew McCutchen in Rangers blue, looking to make the club as a bench DH type. All the while, Ozuna seems to be a lock for his old DH spot in Pittsburgh, and will be trading in the green sleeve for a yellow one. Regardless of what emotion it brings out from any loyalist, either of these looks are just downright odd, even if they do last. 

And that's the main factor, as we round out the end of Spring Training. Like any preseason year, there's some sights that just don't look right. And either you get used to them during the season or they fade off in the distance, never quite panning out. I'll rundown some favorites in each of the 30 camps. It's not just 'a player in a new uniform', but it's players in uniforms that will take a while to get used to. Again, think of cutch on the Rangers, a lot like Hunter Pence on the Rangers. It's a real shock honestly.

Angels: Alek Manoah, a surprising favorite for an Opening Day rotation spot, and someone with a real desire to prove his success was not a fluke. The shift from Jays to Braves I could stomach, but this is a different color scheme and a different section of the continent. Maybe this works out.

 Astros: Nick Allen by default, but he honestly looks odd in most uniforms. An Allen-Altuve DP combo would be cool because there wouldn't be much of a height difference. 

A's: Jeff McNeil. Not only does McNeil look odd out of Mets pinstripes for the first time since his career began in 2018, but he just looks odd standing next to all of these young, talented players starting their careers. McNeil will be sharing playing time with Zach Gelof and Tyler Soderstrom, and attempting to prove he's still a durable MLB option. 

Blue Jays: Jesus Sanchez. In my defense, this is the first time in his career he's not in wholly dark tones, and the more optimistic light blues and whites of Toronto will be interesting. It'll also be interesting to see what he can add to this team after standing out in Miami and falling short in Houston.

Braves: Mike Yastrzemski. Seeing him in Kansas City blue was also weird for the record. I think I just assumed he'd stick with SF til the contract ran out, then keep re-upping, and seeing him now as a crucial piece of this return-to-form Braves squad is something I wasn't expecting.

Brewers: Akil Baddoo. Even if he doesn't make the team it'll just be a weird note after a bunch of Tigers seasons.

Cardinals: There's actually a lot of competition. Ryne Stanek in bright red looks odd, Ramon Urias in bright red..I'm giving it to Dustin May because it's a complete inversion of how I pictured him in LA.

Cubs: Lord have mercy, welcome back to the bigs Tyler Austin!! Austin was a Yankee farmhand around the same time as Aaron Judge, flamed out, then became a big star in the Japanese leagues. Here he's back, and is trying to crack the overstuffed Cubs roster. Honestly, with Seiya Suzuki hurt he's got a chance. Mostly want him to succeed for the joy of it, but man is it weird seeing him out of pinstripes.

D-Backs: Nolan Arenado, as discussed. Verging on Longoria vibes.

Dodgers: Edwin Diaz probably, but there really isn't much competition. I think I'm still extremely used to seeing him in Mets colors, as is most of the league. Odd that it really was SEVEN SEASONS in Queens. It didn't feel that long.

Giants: I think this'll be Harrison Bader, because this is the furthest west he's ever played and the most he's ever been in black. 

Guardians: Either Colin Holderman or Rhys Hoskins. Equally known for either one team or one shade or so. Hoskins in the AL will be very interesting.

Mariners: Rob Refsnyder for sure. This'll be the first time in a while he's suited up for a team that isn't the Red Sox, and the M's are banking on him in a full time DH role, which is huge. I sincerely hope it works out for him, he's the exact kind of guy that could work in Seattle.

Marlins: Really just Owen Caissie. Cubs fans thought they'd be getting him next, then the Cabrera deal happens, now he's become the latest and greatest big time prospect to try to make it in Miami.

Mets: Clearly there's a lot of competition, but of all of them I think Jorge Polanco looks the strangest. I never considered him a possibility to play for the Mets. You know how some people just have that 'yeah, the Mets will go for them' feel? Polanco's not one of those guys for me. Hell, 1st base isn't even his position, and he'll be covering for Pete Alonso, so that's even stranger.

Nationals: Miles Mikolas, as I just assumed he wouldn't play anywhere else other than St. Louis. Still red, but just slightly off.

Orioles: Shane Baz. I think mostly because I think of him as a kid in dark tones, and now he's there wearing the orange highlighters. A little off. Really hope he works out in Baltimore though.

Padres: Nick Castellanos narrowly beats German Marquez. Mostly cause it just makes me sad.

Phillies: Brad Keller in a color other than blue. Though, real talk, I really hope he keeps it going for us, cause we deserve some good bullpen luck, FINALLY.

Rays: Cedric Mullins. I'm thinking I'll get used to this, but Mullins just seems like a different kind of player from the sort of veteran the Rays usually bring in. Perhaps he'll be dealt by June.

Red Sox: Willson Contreras in the AL is the weirdest bit of this, weirder than Ranger Suarez in the AL. I think I'm mostly just caught off guard still by the Cardinals trading him. And now he's the first baseman, supposedly for this Sox team, or maybe the DH. It might work but it doesn't compute for me at the moment.

Reds: Dane Myers probably, but Pierce Johnson and J.J. Bleday come close. Myers might actually work better in Cincinnati than he did in Miami. Slightly better team.

Rockies: Michael Lorenzen I think. I just never expected to see him on an 'it's a living' signing, not after the Tigers one.

Royals: Starling Marte, like his old teammate Andrew McCutchen, has only spent 3 months in the AL, from his 2021 stint in Oakland. This will be an odd venture, not only as a KC DH, but on likely his last legs. I remember when he was the speedy, powerful rookie, and now he's just kind of hanging around. That's very odd.

Tigers: Kenley Jansen's really the only one of these that looks anywhere close to strange. It's not the Dodgers, after all.

Twins: Orlando Arcia, probably. A shame so much of this team is just people trying to keep playing. More minor league than anything else.

White Sox: Anthony Kay, another returning guy from a couple continents over. Used to him in Toronto colors, now he tries Act 2 as a White Sox. Hope it goes as well for him as...well, teammate Erick Fedde, though perhaps sustained over a longer period of time.

Yankees: N/A. Cause even Ryan Weathers is a second-generation Yankee. Nothing looks too out of the ordinary...yet.

Weathering With You

 

It should be concerning that I'm going into a Yankees season going 'look at Ryan Weathers', but, with the way things have worked out, Ryan Weathers might be a major factor in the Yankees' rotation this year. That's right, Ryan Weathers, the guy who couldn't find a job pitching in San Diego, then got a prime seat for one in Miami and whenever he got the chance immediately got hurt, is a favorite to be a mid to late rotation arm for the New York Yankees. If you think that means we're doomed, you're not paying attention.

It has been made clear that the Yankees will be without Gerrit Cole and Clarke Schmidt for a little while, and Carlos Rodon for at least the first few weeks of the season. Three really important pieces not joining you from the jump. So that requires rotation depth. However, as established last year, that's something we have now. We have Will Warren, who made all his starts last year in a season where he wasn't even a lock for the rotation, and we have Cam Schlittler, who had a phenomenal rookie stretch and some incredible postseason appearances. Like the Dodgers, we have contingency plans for injured starters. And it's very fitting that one of them, Ryan Weathers, is himself an oft-injured starter. 

So starting the season, the Yankees will be going with Max Fried, Luis Gil, Cam Schlittler, Will Warren and Ryan Weathers. People are writing this rotation off because it seems like a No. 2 guy and four No. 5 guys. It's not. Gil can go deep, and certainly did in 2024. Last year he was a little more human, he was due for a down year. Schlittler is on his way to ace status and will probably improve further in a full season of work. Warren, like Gil, can eat innings and go deep, and certainly strike people out. And Weathers, when healthy, is a good guy to have around. In 16 games in 2024, he had a 3.63 ERA, 80 Ks and a 1.177 WHIP. So far in Spring Training he's gotten into some trouble with the Mets but he still looks like a solid option. 

I think the perceived step down is just because it's an untested, lower-key rotation. There's no Gerrit Cole to fall back on. And I realize that the Jays will be coming in with Dylan Cease, the Red Sox now have Ranger Suarez, and the Orioles have Shane Baz, but I still think the Yankees have enough of a lineup to stay in the race until the hurt starters come back. They kept Cody Bellinger for a reason, and he really works in New York. We're also gonna see how Jose Caballero, Jasson Dominguez, Jazz Chisholm and Ben Rice do with eyes on them. 

I think about it this way: when the Yankees come in looking big, that's when they fall. That's when they embarrass themselves. They need to earn the status and get there without the big expectation, and then build on that. I think they can do this, but they need to convince people. 

And then who knows. Maybe Spencer Jones eventually makes an appearance and dials things to the next level.

Satisfaction Not Guaranteed

 

There's been a lot written, or made or whatever, about the myth of the tragic character who has everything but is willing to risk it all for the one empty space he's after. The man who has every opportunity to settle and be happy with what he's done but isn't finished until it feels perfect. The Jay Gatsby parable, the O. Henry type hero, the tragic hero who undoes himself. You see it with every celebrity, the people that keep chasing the high and forgetting what they have, til they look perfect, til they have everything. 

So by that metric I totally understand why, after winning two World Series' in a row, the Dodgers went and got Edwin Diaz and Kyle Tucker. They're not satisfied yet. They want Jordan Bulls numbers, Torre Yanks numbers, Belichick numbers, they want a dynasty because they have enough to procure it. I completely get that. Doesn't mean I have to enjoy it, but it's nice when something that seems mighty and powerful admits its shortcomings and actively does what it can to mend them, for all to see.

The Edwin Diaz acquisition points to a frightening truth about the Dodgers, that since parting ways with Kenley Jansen they've yet to find a truly terrific closing option. They went with Craig Kimbrel, arguably in a year where they didn't really need a closer, and he was mediocre. They brought up Evan Phillips, he had one terrific season then some injuries, and while he's stayed in LA the prevailing theory is that he's probably better off as a set-up man. They tried Tanner Scott last year, best available, and he had his weakest year yet, blowing saves and squandering the opportunity. Even Kirby Yates, the backup option that booted Ryan Brasier off the team, had a 5.25 ERA last year, and is hopefully still able to put in any work for this team.

So, again, with Scott, Yates and Phillips relegated to middle relief work, the Dodgers went with the best available bullpen option, this year being Mets stalemate Edwin Diaz. And it's a tricky conundrum, because  Edwin Diaz has, at many points, excelled as a closing pitcher. Both 2022 and 2025, Diaz displayed both ninth inning dominance and 30+ save years, something that seems all too rare. The saves totals were never terribly high in Queens because...I mean honestly a number of reasons but mainly the saves are more often to be blown than not with some of those teams. There's also just years in between where he was just...fine. Y'know, did his thing, maybe his ERA was closer to 4 than it should be.

Edwin Diaz is one of the best active closing options, and in an age where the closing position is more 'what have you done for me lately' than ever, the fact that he's kept this job for 10 years despite waning dominance is great. Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel, Josh Hader, they've all similarly had down years but they've always bounced back. And so has Diaz, even if it isn't always as pronounced. 

I say this because the Dodgers shelled out the extra money to ensure that they have a closing option, in Diaz, that works. But it shouldn't have come to this. Phillips should have been sustainable. Scott should have kept the momentum going. So even as they look to repeat as Champions for a third straight year, the Dodgers are still trying to plug this hole in the ninth with Edwin Diaz, and even then that's not guaranteed to be the working variable. 

At least with Kyle Tucker you get the sense that the success will happen from the jump. Tucker's in his prime, he had another excellent year with Chicago last year, he's a proven postseason bat, he's perfect for this team. Diaz, even with his track record, isn't a sure thing because no closer is a sure thing anymore. And the fact that Diaz, who's had some of the best seasons by a reliever in the past 10 years, is considered an erratic option comparatively--that says a lot. 

The Dodgers are banking on this to work, and for Diaz and Tucker to get them at least 2 more rings now that everybody else is nailed down. It's just a matter of whether or not another flaw becomes apparent, and if another team can work hard enough to exploit it.

The Black Hole on Second Base

 

What the Mariners will be doing with Brendan Donovan this season, after trading him for a bunch of people including Ben Williamson and Dutch switch-pitcher Jurrangelo Cijntje, both makes absolutely no sense and tons of sense depending on how well you know their situation.

Donovan is a multi-instrumentalist, and has played second base, third base, left field, right field and shortstop at the MLB level, which is one of the reasons the Cardinals valued him, before...y'know...trading him away. His defense has routinely been good-but-not-great, but as an infielder with contact ability he's very valuable, and is definitely a crucial piece for Seattle, who can always afford to up their contact game. But going into this season, the plan seems to be to let Donovan start as the primary third baseman, despite 2nd base being his primary position to date, and continue to let Cole Young [and to a lesser extent Leo Rivas] mature at second base.

And it seems like a very odd move to break in Donovan at a position he's obviously played but isn't as well known at. It's like the Red Sox signing Hanley Ramirez to play the outfield, or the Mets signing Jorge Polanco to play 1st, or...the Mets signing Bo Bichette to play third, or...the Mets signing Clay Holmes to start ga-you may be noticing a theme here. But I see the reasoning on a few levels. Firstly, Donovan is that kind of multi-position guy to not be too fazed by a move to third, and also...second base has been very problematic for this team in recent memory.

Since...I would say 2018, Seattle has been where promising second base signings and trades go to die. You could trace it back to when the Mariners, in 2016, traded their prized 2nd base/SS prospect Ketel Marte to Arizona for Jean Segura, who was primarily a shortstop in Seattle. That move poisoned the well, and every subsequent 2nd baseman in Seattle experienced pain and misery upon their arrival. Starting with Dee Gordon, whose strong Miami years trailed off, as did his OPS and defensive ability. In 2020, the team went with Shed Long as the primary 2nd base option, and while he was a promising farmhand with contact potential, he hit .171, and then .198, given the opportunity, and never recovered. Many times over the course of the next few years, the M's would attempt to give Dylan Moore the starting 2nd base job, but he'd only excel when used as a bench bat. So in 2021, Moore as the main 2B option was so overwhelming that they traded for Abraham Toro, who was nice down the stretch but completely underwhelming in 2022. 

Then, starting in 2022, the Mariners made attempts to actually sign and field talent for 2nd base, which would be even more disastrous. Adam Frazier, after an all-star season in Pittsburgh and San Diego, hit .238 despite appearing in more games than any other Mariner. Kolten Wong, dealt for Toro ironically, was coming off a number of underrated contact seasons in Milwaukee only to hit .165 in 67 games, effectively ending his career. Jorge Polanco was next, and the interesting detail with Polanco is that, similar to Moore, he doesn't start really picking up until after he's moved to a DH option. As a 2nd baseman in 2024 he's decent, hitting .213 with 16 homers and 45 RBIs, but last year, as the primary DH, Polanco hit .265 with 26 homers and 78 RBIs. Prompting the misguided Mets contract. 

Lost in all this was the fact that Cole Young, an organizational gem, was decent enough in a call-up year, despite a .211 average in 77 games. A slow start is understandable, especially for a 21-year-old. So moving Donovan to 3rd to keep Young in the lineup means they have faith in him to break this curse. And honestly, at this rate, I trust them.

Because, I don't know if you recall this, but the Mariners used to have a similar black hole at the backstop, going back to when Dan Wilson left. From 2005 til the early part of this decade, the catching position was a revolving door of both replacement options and fleetingly-kept answers. Names like Welington Castillo, Omar Narvaez, Miguel Olivo, Yorvit Torrealba and John Jason made their way through as hole-plugging options that didn't amount to anything. At the same time, this team tried to find young catchers to build into career guys, but Kenji Johjima was a disappointment, Adam Moore never stuck in the majors, and Mike Zunino, admittedly the best they could come up with during this period, wasn't any good as a catcher. This period even had the saga of Mike Marjama, a decent young catching option who left baseball for charity work, then came back only to get slapped with a PED ban. Snakebitten doesn't even begin. So for a position like that to go from completely hopeless to in amazing shape thanks to some guy named Cal Raleigh...that proves that even something that feels cursed has hope.

So I hope Cole Young figures it out this year, and spends a long career at second in Seattle. It's the relief this team deserves. And if it's not him, hopefully they find the guy soon, even if it needs to be Brendan Donovan. Though I won't blame him for not immediately wanting to test fate.

On the Possibility of an American WBC Title, Now

 

[DISCLAIMER: I go into some...unconquered, on purpose, territory with this post, talking about current events. If this one isn't to your liking in that respect, I apologize. This had just been on my mind.]

I can't think about what the U.S. team is thinking about heading into the WBC. It's the most high-stakes low-stakes tournament possible.

Like, say you're Bobby Witt, or whoever. You're a charter member of the US team, a mid-lineup star, and you are being tasked with performing to the best of your ability, for your country, and then after winning this you have to immediately go back and perform to the best of your ability for the Royals in both what could be the last full season for a little while AND the a season that coincides with the 250th anniversary of the country. There are a lot of people who would really like the US to win some sports tournaments this year, considering the WBC is happening, and then the World Cup is happening in North America. And being very honest, there's more of a chance of a WBC Championship title than a FIFA World Title this year. 

Now, the US team has won a WBC before, in 2017. But the stakes were lower, this was before everyone knew who Ohtani was, and this was before it became the tentpole that it is now. Now you've got more of a drive for players to participate, and more pressure for the greats of the game to do it, even if it risks injury. And there's already been nonsense about insurance, teams not sending players out cause they worry they're gonna get hurt, and that's already lightened some roster loads. Yet I think that this is a point where, for some reason, some indistinct reason that isn't coming to mind somehow, the US needs a pride boost. And I think these guys have taken it to heart to embody the sort of patriotic, 'I love America' sensibility to capture the nation. Like apparently they're playing Toby Keith on busrides, going heavy on the patriotism and all of that. And...I say this respectfully, but...I dunno if that's the move, especially when a team that's supposed to reflect the sum of the nation's best ballplayers only has Byron Buxton and Aaron Judge as nonwhite representatives. 

I think this tournament happening right after the Olympics has added more pressure as well, cause there was something where people were representing the country on the world's stage and you saw a contrast of the ways that can be done. You had people all over looking at people like Alysa Liu or Jack Hughes and going 'why aren't they representing America the way I want them to?'. I think both the figure skating win and the hockey wins were good for the country for different reasons, but I think some wins were more reflective of the potential of the American experiment than others. And how that ties into patriotism, especially at this moment, made some wins easier to stomach than others. The immediate contrast between how someone reacts to winning an Olympic medal and then how they rationalize this as a degree of American patriotism could be stark at points. Because it can be argued that representing the country, and all that comes with it, means something different now.

And so that informs a lot of forethought about the WBC, and how a winning US squad will look now, after the Men's Hockey Team's win, in an era where not only is the US team evenly matched in this tournament but there is also the idea of a forthcoming women's baseball league, which will lead to an even larger conversation. What does it mean if this team wins now? Does it mean anything? Is it good for the game, for the country? 

I suppose the upside of this is you get people from the deepest reaches of the country. I think about guys like Mason Miller, who's a local hero in West Virginia for his time as a college athlete there. An old friend who grew up in that area followed Miller to the majors and cheered him on as he became the best relief asset in baseball. Everywhere you've got pockets of people who must have known one of these guys as they came up and got to see them make the majors. That is the American dream, to come from anywhere, from anything, and succeed on the world's stage. 

It's just very difficult to be all 'rah-rah, America's the greatest' right now. Even if there's enough people like Bryce Harper and Cal Raleigh and Bobby Witt trying to craft the story of an American monolith that takes down any country in its path...I'm not entirely sure that's an especially helpful narrative at the moment. I'm not saying they should punt the World Baseball Classic, just keel over against the Czechia team or something, but...if they want to look like the heroes this tournament, they need to keep their perception in mind. The 2017 team was exciting because they represented the state of the game, and the country, in an optimistic way. If there's a way for the US team to do that now, they need to figure it out. Because right now, Japan winning is a better story, the Dominican Republic winning is a better story, Puerto Rico winning is a better story, even Czechia and their plumbers and dentists would be an unbelievable story. 

All of those teams don't dream about giving up a home run to Aaron Judge, they think about striking him out. So if we're gonna be the heroes again this time around, we're gonna need to earn it.

How Do You Get Anywhere?

 
Obviously the discourse surrounding the planned salary cap/floor has been completely normal and has been met with absolutely rational thinking. 

Right.

The players don't want a cap, the owners don't want a floor. Manfred has discussed a floor, who knows how high it'll be. The whole point is to incentivize small-market teams to actually build competitors and not be afraid to spend money on high assets. Already this past offseason, you've seen the Athletics, Orioles and Pirates spend more money than they have in years on genuine pieces to grow from, ranging from extended young players to contracted veterans. Obviously some did more than others, and the Pirates arguably should have done more of the extending, but a change does seem to be apparent.

And yet there still continues to be teams that are good, and will continue to be in the conversation, yet consistently let homegrown talent go for the sake of keeping the payroll low. The Brewers and Guardians may still compete this year, and both are expected to. The way both youth movements are going, they will be fine for a while. But this marks another year for both teams where stars have been traded, or left via free agency, and have been replaced with cheaper options. And that's not the direction teams should be going. There's running it back and then there's taking a running start and breaking into a stroll instead.

The Guardians' offseason was very 'business as usual' knowing them. No extreme moves, no big departures, but...that in itself is telling. In 2024, the Guardians made an ALCS, then they traded Andres Gimenez and Josh Naylor and mostly 'ran it back'. Then in 2025, with mostly the same team and even more youth, they traded Shane Bieber midyear then somehow still won the division after an incredible September. And then...repeat. Running it back, relying on young stars, not building on it. On one hand, I sort of get it- signing the occasional free agent, like Eddie Rosario or Josh Bell, hasn't really worked for this team. Rhys Hoskins was a late-offseason signing that only happened because Dave Dombrowski foolishly didn't want him back. 

But on the other...the only way this team can ensure a more dominant regular season performance that doesn't need to rely on late momentum is by putting money into the team. Having a young team helps, but there are people in the league who could do better than a ton of these starters. Arias, Rocchio, Jones, Martinez...they're not proven MLB options right now. It's nice that the rotation looks better this year, and that Gavin Williams has finally proven himself as an MLB starter, but you're kinda hoping that Slade Cecconi, Joey Cantillo and Parker Messick can do full seasons of what they all showcased for like a month. 

I forget who said this, but someone in an interview let on that Jose Ramirez was undervaluing himself in order to stay in Cleveland. As in, because he enjoyed the organization so much and saw loyalty towards it, he was intentionally not taking better money elsewhere. And this player said this as if it was a disparaging thing, like the optimal thing is asking for Shohei Ohtani money as a mid-level star. Jazz Chisholm will never get the contract he wants because he's limited in a few respects. Jose Ramirez could theoretically be making Ohtani money, but getting to play in Cleveland as a legend til he retires is more important to him than taking a paycheck somewhere he's not as certain about. Honestly, more players should be like Jose Ramirez. It doesn't excuse the Guardians refusing to pay other players, but at least the players they do pay have the right idea. 

Then you have the Brewers. The Brewers could have been a World Series team last year, and were unlucky enough to have to face the Dodgers in an NLCS. They succeeded where so many other Brewers teams failed, and built a strong enough squad to master the second half, even outdoing the Cubs late. In response to that finish, the Brewers traded Freddy Peralta, Caleb Durbin and Isaac Collins, three crucial members of the team, to competitors. Trading Durbin and Collins felt really short-sighted, as they're both young players with a lot of upside. But the object in Milwaukee is to make room for other young talent, like Jett Williams and Jesus Made and Logan Henderson.

And that angle I sort of get. This farm system is popping out gold on the reg, then having absolutely no opportunity to play, oftentimes because of other prospect dumps. Durbin was from the Devin Williams trade [already undone], Joey Ortiz was from the Corbin Burnes trade [already undone], Chad Patrick was dealt for Abraham Toro, a deal no one remembers. And now you're seeing it happen again, as David Hamilton, who came over for Durbin, is now a favorite to start at third, meaning Williams might be waiting even longer here than he would have in Queens. 

But at the same time...if you have an opportunity to go 'that was our opportunity, we can't let it happen again', you have to go for more than that. There were tons of free agents available, and they wound up with Brandon Woodruff for one last ride essentially and Gary Sanchez. And we're back in rebuild mode essentially. Like 'well this MIGHT work, but who knows'. You're trying to outdo the Cubs, who CAN overspend on a competitor, and you're hoping the same luck that happened in August this year can happen again, without a portion of what made it possible. 

So now the pressure is on people like Chad Patrick, who was good last year but at least could be under Freddy Peralta, or Quinn Priester, who was a winning man for the Brewers for a while with a more varied lineup, or Andrew Vaughn, who finally figured it out at the plate midyear but saw the HRs drop over time, to repeat their luck. Everyone has said that if Jackson Chourio finally has an Acuna-style breakout year this is within reach, and I agree. The team wouldn't have signed him to a major contract before he'd even played a game if he didn't have the potential to be a team giant, and last year pointed in that direction. This team just needs to build on 2025, and hopefully they can do so with a lighter payroll, even as the Cubs reload theirs. 

I always want the small-market teams to do well. But the point is that under the current imbalance of power in the MLB, it's becoming harder and harder for them to do so. I want the Guardians and Brewers to do well, but I also want them to be able to afford sustained success. Hopefully that's at all possible.

World in Motion

 

Whatever picture has been crafted of the 30 MLB teams during the first couple weeks of spring training is now drastically altered due to the mass exodus of players warming up for the World Baseball Classic. I think they used to time this so that it'd happen earlier and the WBC guys would eventually rejoin the team squads in time for longer games and full-squad scrimmages. And now it's happening later and, as the MLB clubs ramp up spring action, they'll be doing so with incomplete squads. 

I think the good news about the White Sox heading into the next couple weeks is that they are not solely Munetaka Murakami and Kyle Teel. Maybe last year, or the year before, if those two players were taken out of the lengthened scrimmages and they had to develop a gameplan without those two guys, it'd be a little trickier. But the White Sox, somehow, have more of a team this year. Perhaps not enough to compete, but enough to not be a complete laughingstock.

First of all, this spring has confirmed that Murakami is the kind of contact DH that this team kinda needs. He's not all about the long ball, but he's got enough pop to get people home, and in droves. Murakami could have signed lots of places, and it's clear that it took his stock plummeting for him to land in Chicago, but everything about Murakami's demeanor tells me this is where he wants to be. He's not Shohei Ohtani, he's not 'I have to be the best'. Murakami didn't need LA money, he just wanted to be somewhere he could succeed, and he's crafty enough to see that in Chicago. So far, he's looking like an impressive piece for this team.

But even without him, the White Sox just have more depth this year. They're going in with Teel, Edgar Quero, Chase Meidroth and Colson Montgomery at the MLB level, and that's a really cool young core with a high ceiling and immediate perks. This season also means figuring out whether Brooks Baldwin and Miguel Vargas are transitional pieces or if they can actually factor into this team. I still think Vargas is just a placeholder guy that isn't meant to be a building block. Not everyone can wind up with an Anthony Rizzo or a Cedric Mullins immediately. And then they now have Austin Hays, who seems to thrive better in cities that aren't major or metropolitan for...some reason, so him in Chicago will be interesting. The rotation has been supplanted by Erick Fedde, as well as Anthony Kay post-overseas reinvention, so basically Erick Fedde 2 years ago. I'm hoping Fedde just thrived with these pitching coaches, cause he really couldn't figure it out last year. 

If all goes according to plan, this team will build enough of a base this March that, once Murakami comes back, he'll supplant the preexisting energy, and they'll be off to a decent start. Cause there's a lot more going on here, not even counting the potential call-ups of Braden Montgomery and Wikelman Gonzalez. Maybe Murakami knew something was coming and he wanted to be on the ground floor before it got big. And hopefully it goes better for him than it's gone for Masataka Yoshida.

Comeback Rookie of the Year

 

There have been a lot of unnecessary additions to rookie discourse, like teams intentionally keeping players down to control service time, Topps' unnecessarily early rookie cutoff only depicting Rookie of the Year stories that happen in the first one and a half months of the season, the entire 2020 season, where Devin Williams got an award for having a good August, and the very definition of what counts as a rookie season keeping players eligible for awards even after making a breakout impact. It's all a little bit broken, and it's kind of unfairly balanced against the players' side. I still don't think Luis Gil deserved a ROY award in 2024, because to me his rookie season was 2021, because that was the season where he set a rookie record. 

But what's really complicated talking about rookies now is the unnecessary conditioning of pitchers to throw hard in their teens and overexert themselves to the point where, by the time they hit the majors, they're a ticking time-bomb waiting for Tommy John surgery. Nobody works their way up anymore, nobody embraces craftsmanship. It's all about smoke, because it's all about longballs. All extremes. So the rookie of the year, if it's a pitcher, is a lot of the times 'which pitcher went the longest without getting hurt'. Luis Gil was that and he wasn't even a rookie. 

So it's gonna be very interesting to see how people talk about Andrew Painter this year. Andrew Painter is 100% a rookie, he's never played an MLB game, his likely Opening Day roster inclusion will mark his MLB debut. But with the way Painter's development has gone, I'm not even sure if this season will truly feel like a rookie campaign for him. Painter, a 2021 first-rounder, was looking MLB-ready for a 2023 debut, and then in Spring Training his arm started showing wear, and so he got Tommy John surgery, missed all of 2024, and was shaky in Lehigh Valley all last year, hence no call-up. If he had made the majors in 2023, if that damage was found a month or so later, then some of those 5.20 ERA Lehigh starts would have been major league starts, meaning 2026 would be primed for a comeback campaign, sort of like Casey Mize last year. 

But because Painter never reached the majors, his comeback season at 23 will also be his rookie season. Meaning if, by some chance, Painter starts 32 games with a 3 ERA and wins a Rookie of the Year, which is not impossible, it'll have some very interesting subtext, a rookie season with the energy of a post-TJ comeback season. How will it be judged? How will PAINTER be judged going forward? 

If any Phillies season would need a dominant Andrew Painter season, it would be this one. Ranger Suarez is gone, Zack Wheeler might still miss some starts, Aaron Nola might be past his prime, and it's really looking like Taijuan Walker might be relied upon for a bit. In a scenario where Cristopher Sanchez, Jesus Luzardo, Nola and Walker are rounding out the Opening Day rotation, and the Phillies want to remain a match against the Mets and Braves, they need Painter as a great MLB option. It's a lot of pressure, yes, but seeing as Painter's been terrific went healthy, and went 13th overall for a reason, it could work out. The thing I think is troublesome is the fact that for the Phillies to retain dominance, they need Painter to get MLB hitting immediately, and I'm not 100% sure of that yet. 

The Phillies have the appearance of a team beckoning on diminishing returns, with no real new blood and a lot of core people hoping to shake off rumors of going past their prime. Andrew Painter, and for that matter Justin Crawford and the potential of an Aidan Miller debut, could quiet that. If there's a successful shift to the next era, the Phillies could remain a league superpower in the same way the Astros have, just persisting. It just takes a lot going right this year, and a full, healthy season from Painter is a huge part of that.