I think that when the 'save' was invented, it was a much simpler MLB climate. Relievers could still go 3 innings because they were essentially trained on the same stuff as starters. Nobody was training to just go 3 batters a day yet, and thus careers were longer. Saves were just an arbitrary 'you made sure the game wasn't a loss' thing, and then around the advent of the closing pitcher it became 'okay, you came in and polished it off on purpose', and then the save had some weight. But eventually, as the closer becomes the valued spot it became in the 90s and 00s, there eventually grows a disconnect between saves and pitching quality. You get closers after a while who save a ton of games, your Alfonsecas and Wickmans and Loopers, and do it without being terribly hard to hit. There's a lot of 30, 35 save seasons that have a 4 ERA attached to it. And eventually you segue to this current period, where the closer is less dedicated, it's more RP1, and there are guys closing games that are doing it because they're the best available option.
And so that's how we've gotten to this current point, where Riley O'Brien of the Cardinals has made an all-star team, and leads the NL in saves with 34, without being, in my opinion, terribly great at actually closing games.
O'Brien was a Rays draftee who bounced around a ton of places before the Cardinals took him on and made him a reclamation project. Last year he was excellent in 42 appearances, with a 2.06 ERA and a 1.5 WAR. In Ryan Helsley's absence, the Cards primed JoJo Romero and O'Brien for a closing spot, and both did relatively well given the opportunity. In camp, the two fought for the closing spot, O'Brien won, and he got to close games for them all year. However, his six losses and five blown saves speak to the reality that for every effective closing appearance there's a few more really shaky ones. Against the Phillies, going into the ninth with a 4-0 lead, O'Brien gave up all 6 runs and effectively sunk the game singlehandedly. Then three days later he got up against Baltimore and gave up the ninth inning run that lost that one. He's one of those guys that can get a save while still letting a run slip by, like he did against the Cubs in May, or making it a little scarier than it should be [he gives up a lot of walks]. And thus, even with those 34 saves, O'Brien may not be an optimal reliever. The statistic tells you he's good at finishing games with wins, it doesn't tell you how dominant he was in those appearances, and compared to a Cade Smith or a Josh Hader, he's not dominant at all.
O'Brien's rise tells you a couple things. The Cardinals require a lot of save situations, because their starting pitching isn't lights-out and there aren't a ton of blowouts, but they're also around .500 because there's 6 or 7 games that would have been wins had it not been for O'Brien. The Cardinals are very okay this year, and so is Riley O'Brien. It's really as simple as that.
You're seeing some signs things may get better, like Quinn Matthews beginning to field some starts, and the advent of Cade Winquest to potentially help the bullpen. Blaze Jordan is beginning to hit, and for his troubles has immediately gotten hurt. Joshua Baez had that amazing 3-homer game, and...frustratingly hasn't done a heck of a lot since. Next season will definitely have J.J. Wetherholt and Jordan Walker plugged in centrally and trying to move forward, and that's a very good thing. Until then there's just gonna be a lot of awkward false starts and almosts, and 2026 is most certainly one of those, as the NL Wild Card race has pretty much broken away from the Cards at this rate.
I guess the lesson here is that, while saves aren't as important as they used to be, relief pitching can still be the difference-maker.
Coming Tomorrow- Oh, you know, a guy who nearly won an MVP last year and frustratingly refused to follow it up?
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