Tuesday, February 4, 2020

Mook Before You Leap


11 or so years of doing this blog, following baseball...I'm still so gullible.

The past week, I've been hearing rumors of the Red Sox trying to trade Mookie Betts to LA, and the whole time I'm just going '...yeah, RIGHT.' Like, from a logical standpoint, there's no way you trade your star player to a team with an unbeatable lineup. But from a financial standpoint, sometimes you have to do that sort of thing, and this is the second time in the past eight years the Sox have been forced to do something like this to clear payroll.

Now, last time...the Sox gave away Josh Beckett, Carl Crawford and Adrian Gonzalez. All 3 of them are currently out of baseball. Beckett has already been booted off the HOF ballot. With the exception of maybe A-Gon, none of them made huge impacts on the Dodgers.

So now we have this entire flurry of moves, and at the end of it, I'm gonna ask if it's any better than that firesafe deal that LA relieved Boston of in 2012.

So...the initial deal, which is pretty simple in itself, is Mookie Betts and David Price, two very large contracts, in exchange for Alex Verdugo. Betts for Verdugo alone works because there's no vacancy in the outfield, and they just take each other's place. Betts fits in pretty well with Bellinger and Pollock in that outfield, and Betts and Bellinger together is a pretty insane high-WAR combo. Also, having Betts alongside Justin Turner, Corey Seager, Max Muncy and Will Smith will make for a hella intimidating lineup in 2020.

Then there's the Price question. Since landing in Boston, Price has been hit and miss. On one hand, he's gotten a high of 17 wins and 228 strikeouts, but on the other, his 3.84 ERA is his highest team ERA. Either Price is losing his luster, OR he's just not suited for Fenway, which is something we've been suspecting since that deal was made. Price in Dodger Stadium is an intriguing prospect, and it'll be nice to see what he has left in the tank. I do think it's a Josh Beckett situation where they'll use him late in the rotation and he'll have occasional sparks of his former self, but he could surprise the shit out of me and have a 20-game year.

And then Verdugo in Boston is something that could definitely work. It's a little odd now because the youth movement has sort of grown up, and now fitting Verdugo, himself a product of a different youth movement, in there beside Benny and Bradley (unless they trade him too) might make for a interesting dynamic. I definitely think Verdugo will have a fuller, more fleshed out year now that he's not pushed into either starting or a bench role in the crowded Dodger climate. But again, what will he perform like outside of LA? Will he fit into this roster? I think the two team dynamics are very different.

After this, the deal got a little trickier, as a third team was added to the mix, and the Twins pitched in Brusdar Graterol to go to Boston in exchange for Kenta Maeda. Maeda in Minneapolis is interesting, as, again, there's a less crowded rotation picture, and Maeda could fit behind Berrios and Odo. However, you also have to think about Rich Hill, Randy Dobnak, Homer Bailey, Michael Pineda and Devin Smeltzer, all of whom want rotation spots. AND you have to remember that Maeda is the kind of guy who'll be pushed to the bullpen come September due to being the sole rotation asset to have an ERA over 4 or something like that. Hopefully he'll regain a bit of control in Minnesota?

Graterol in Boston works because Graterol is probably gonna compete for a rotation spot in Boston, now that there are so many, and because the Twins have been touting Graterol for the last few years.

AND THEN, the Dodgers decided to clear up the outfield picture a little by trading Joc Pederson to the Angels in exchange for Luis Rengifo. Both pieces of this deal are gonna be crucial, by the way, so it's kinda funny that this aspect has kinda been minimized,

So, Pederson in Anaheim means he'll be essentially taking Kole Calhoun's place, and sharing an outfield with Justin Upton, Mike Trout, and occasionally Brian Goodwin. Trout-Pederson-Upton is actually a pretty great outfield, and if all three hit over 30 homers in 2020, that'll be insane for the Angels. Pederson seems to be finding his way again after a few middling seasons, and had career highs in homers (36) and average (.249). Maybe he keeps the momentum going as a starter in Anaheim.

Rengifo, meanwhile, is another interesting piece of the Dodger infield picture. Rengifo is a factor at 2nd base and shortstop, and clearly is a rival for Chris Taylor at both of those positions. He's also a rival to Enrique Hernandez, whose average has been flighty ever since getting the starting job. Rengifo is going to jumpstart a bloodthirsty Spring Training battle for those positions. It might end kind of bloody- I'm predicting that Chris Taylor might not be a Dodger for much longer after the dust settles. That or Rengifo gets waived or demoted. But it's gonna make things interesting.

At the end of this, I honestly do think it's bigger than the 2012 deal. The 2012 deal was simply 'we have the payroll, we'll take 'em', and then fitting them into a preexisting picture. Now, the Dodgers are reforming their entire team around this deal, getting rid of Kenta Maeda, Joc Pederson and Alex Verdugo to make way for Price and Betts, which is a pretty big statement.

A very huge move by LA. I'm interested to see the ramifications of this throughout the year.

4 comments:

  1. Is that a custom '72 Mookie?

    Always a lot of moving parts in a trade in that the Dodgers likely only get one year of Betts in exchange for many years of Verdugo. So it has only been a few years that anyone could objectively grade the big 2012 trade....& then there were the things Boston managed to accomplish in 2013...

    I think the biggest thing this trade says is how good the Dodgers are at scouting and drafting and how it allows them to build their roster.

    Graterol has an excellent baseball name and I look forward to seeing his Player's Weekend cards eventually. 'Triple Digits' on the radar gun is always impressive but rarely a long career with perhaps Aroldis Chapman being the exception that proves the rule.

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