Flexing From Third

 

Right now, despite a slight difference in overall pictures, there's a team in each league that is currently playing the same role. They are currently in third place in the division, overcame a really rough run, have a 1% shot of a division win thanks to either a comfy favorite or two comfy favorites within a handful of games of each other. They both have some bright young pitching, a few very important pieces joining the team in September, and a halfway decent shot at competition. Right now one team, the Red Sox, has a five game lead over any other wild card competitors [from the second spot], and the other team, the Diamondbacks, has a decent hold on the third spot but are quarreling with the Padres for it. 

The Sox are 74-63, the D-Backs are 73-65. Both teams want it. My prediction is that only one of them will make it, and the other one probably won't despite having a better record than like 2/3rds of the AL. 

The Red Sox, even after getting lambasted by the Yankees this past weekend, look as ready as they did last year, and arguably the lineup's even beefier now. Willson Contreras is having a terrific season as a power corner, with 26 homers and 79 RBIs. Ceddanne Rafaela, aside from his terrific center field defense, is still a ridiculous clutch hitter, leads the league in doubles with 32 and has 67 RBIs. Wilyer Abreu has 23 homers and 70 RBIs. Roman Anthony and Trevor Story just got back and are making the power numbers look even better. I am a little concerned that Adley Rutschman still isn't hitting very well, and has yet to really embrace playing for a competitor again, but on paper this is a team that can go deep.

The downside is that the rotation, while still sporting Sonny Gray and Ranger Suarez, is still a little untested. Jake Bennett and Payton Tolle have impressed in full seasons, but neither have displayed the elite dominance that the team will need to take down a Yankee team or a Guardians team. Bennett is 9-6 with a 3.27 ERA and a 1.035 WHIP, but he's had some rough starts that are beginning to pile up. Same with Payton Tolle, who's got a 3.09 ERA and 141 Ks. The only guy on this team with over 10 wins is Sonny Gray, meaning the depth guys don't get the team behind them as much as they should. And when some starts have to be handed to Patrick Sandoval and his 4.20 ERA and others need to be an opener game eventually handed to Brayan Bello, who's NOT getting it done at all this year, that reassurance would be nice. This team needs to be durable in a postseason environment, and when Suarez and Sandoval can struggle against New York even in August, it's a bit concerning.

The reason I think they're a better bet than Arizona is that the Sox have so much going on, so much rejoining the team and so much that we know works in October. The D-Backs haven't been since 2023, have a lot of shaky or injured heroes from that team, have minor pieces coming back but have heard mum on the status of Corbin Burnes, and have to outdo the Padres, who arguably have more going on.

The D-Backs went 15-13 this past month, meaning they did actually get a nice amount done but only slightly broke even. Losing Ketel Marte did not help, especially considering how he went out. That's definitely not an ego boost. This team also just lost Mike Soroka again, which isn't ideal especially if Gallen's still out. 

The good news is the core is still surging. Corbin Carroll doesn't have enough going on offensively to truly vie for an MVP this year, but he's got 16 triples, 19 homers, 20 steals and some impressive plays in right, so he's still the talk of the town. Arenado's come back season has crossed the 20 homer mark. Perdomo and Moreno have been very steady and very helpful. Ryan Waldschmidt has filled in pretty well in center, he's hitting .267 with decent contact work and great defense. Jordan Lawlar's finally back, and somehow is getting the edge over Lars Nootbaar. It's not an overly wild offensive team, but they do good, steady work and sneak their way out of tough situations.

Without Gallen, and without Merrill Kelly's better numbers, the rotation has needed to evolve naturally. Eduardo Rodriguez's better numbers has returned, and he's at ace status again, with a 14-4 record and a 2.50 ERA. Somehow Brandon Pfaadt came back after a rough first two months and became must-see TV again, being the starter for 7 wins after coming back [with a 6-0 personal record in that time]. He's been getting rocked a little recently, but it's still a decent year for Pfaadt, with a 3.50 ERA in 24 games. People thought he'd be the future of the franchise when he came up as a postseason hero, and while that hasn't exactly happened he's still come through when the team has needed him. 

Also, this team has a very underrated bullpen. Taylor Clarke, Jonathan Loaisiga, Juan Morillo, Brandyn Garcia, Gerardo Carillo and now Justin Martinez have all been excellent, especially in the last couple months. This team has even gotten Dennis Santana to stop sucking. That is an ACCOMPLISHMENT. 

I do ultimately think the Sox have a better road to October than the D-Backs, but the D-Backs are the kind of team who could sneak in and catch fire, much like they did in 2023. I'm not sure how likely it is given the Padres' strengths, and given the fact that the Marlins are still somewhat in the race, but I could see it somehow happening even with everything I know to be true.

Coming Tomorrow- Last year the Marlins had a starting catcher. Then they traded him to Tampa in favor of a younger guy. He started this year. Then they traded HIM to Tampa for a younger guy. This is that younger guy, and he's playing well enough to not exactly start scouting for beachfront property in Tampa about now.