Easy Street

Here is a list of teams the Dodgers have left to play in 2026. The Reds, the Marlins, the Giants and the Padres. That's two noncompetitive teams, one mostly noncompetitive team, and a team on the bubble that the Dodgers have no problem beating when it means something. Now, for comparison's sake, the only tough teams the Padres have to face are the Dodgers and D-Backs, while the D-Backs have the Rangers, Yankees and Padres on the docket. Curiously all three NL West teams have games against the Marlins this month.

So look, do the Dodgers have THE easiest schedule of the competitors? No. But it's up there. The object is to get to the finish line without getting embarrassed by any of these teams, and getting a decent enough seed [the 1 is still in play, despite the Brewers working like hell to prevent this]. There is just one issue, and that is the Dodgers are in danger of losing Shohei Ohtani. They just announced he won't pitch again this season. Normally they'd do this as a dramatic gambit to set up a big final act, but no, he's done, he's focusing on hitting. And he should be, because that part seems to be falling off a bit. He's down to .277, with ONLY a .902 OPS, and ONLY 30 homers. The closest thing to a human year Ohtani's had since before the breakout in Anaheim, 2021-ish. He's missed a lot of games in the past week, and he's 2 for his last 18 at-bats with no extra base hits. Something's wrong, and the team can only stay so afloat without him.

Stranger still, the saga of Kyle Tucker's overblown market continues, as the outfielder might not even be an outfield starter in the playoffs. They might honestly need him, especially if Pages is gonna miss some games, but the way he's hitting is not at all what they signed him for. He's played in virtually every game but is hitting .221 with 12 homers, 59 RBIs and a .671 OPS. His WAR is at -0.1. Genuinely, Tucker has not been this pitiful since his 'struggling for playing time' days in the late 2010s in Houston. pretty much every season since he's gone from 4 to 6 WAR, and this season is a very odd outlier, a heartbreaking one. I don't know if it's him or it's LA or what's going on, but I do recall a sharp drop-off in the second half of last season, and it may have just continued. Still, that dead weight in addition to the lack of Ohtani help has been a huge hit to this team.

And yet...they keep winning. By the strength of their schedule, and the weakness of their opponents, they just keep winning. 

It's funny, last year around this time we were all going 'well Blake Snell's a waste of money if he's not gonna be healthy', and that's not really the case at all, because when he is healthy he's still excellent. So far in 6 starts this season, Snell's 6-1 with a 1.97 ERA and 43 Ks. Vintage Snell, for sure. Glasnow's been pretty decent too since coming back, he's 4-0 with a 3 ERA in 10 starts. Emmet Sheehan just had a really nice start this past week once it became do or die time with all the rotation vacancies. Skull's looking like himself, with a 3 ERA, 48 Ks and a 1.116 WHIP in 7 starts. And then Yamamoto you never really have to worry about, he's simply one of the most consistent pitchers in baseball, and he makes it look so easy. This is his third season and every one of them has been a gem. 

I still think the lineup schematic could be tricky if Ohtani isn't 100%, and some of the usual players [Hernandez, Muncy, Smith] are slowing down, but this Dodgers team is so well built that even this might only be a scratch. Obviously it's more interesting if someone else gets to win this time around, but will the Dodgers even let them? Is that even a possibility?

Coming Tomorrow- A Canadian legend already, and one of the best contact hitters in baseball at the moment. 

Wild Card Series' Day 1: Who You Came For

 

The Tigers have a lot to prove since blowing the divisional race to Cleveland, and I think starting their Wild Card series by putting their ace out there and shutting the Guardians down was the correct course of action.

Everyone's expecting this series to be close. Judging from the fact that Gavin Williams was similarly working, aside from his run, it's going to be. If Skubal didn't show up in this first game and give the Tigers a head-start, this wasn't gonna be productive at all for Detroit. That's the one one-up card they have, if that fails there's no point. Skubal went 7 and 2/3rds, struck out 14 and only allowed 1 hit. It's a truly sensational opening performance from THE guy for the Tigers, and it speaks louder than the small ball that ultimately won it.

I'm intrigued to see how the Guardians do against a pitcher that isn't Skubal tomorrow. I'm guessing the playing field will have been evened.

The combination of a Wrigley home crowd and a pitcher who's notoriously worse on the road spelt doom for the Padres immediately. Nick Pivetta against the Cubs faithful was gonna lead to an outcome like this. And though the Padres bullpen did their best to work around it, it's clear this Padres team cannot outhit the Cubs this year.

The Cubs got production from Seiya Suzuki and Carson Kelly, and power production at that, in addition to contact dominance from Nico Hoerner. They outpowered San Diego, the better power team who got nothing done against Matthew Boyd. The only Padres run was scored on a PCA error. Boyd himself kept the balls close and didn't overheat. I did not think this Padres team could be contained this easily, but there you have it. What's more, the team's usual closing option, Daniel Palencia, was in to relieve Boyd in the fifth, meaning the save went to Brad Keller, which was a pretty cool touch. 

Look, man. I don't care who you are. If your goal is to hit two different lefties throwing 100mph for 9 innings, you can't get too mad if you're not able to. That's insanely difficult. The Yankees have struggled against Crochet all year, and they haven't had much luck off of Chapman either. I applaud them for even being able to get hits off of Crochet at all, and the AV homer was a very big moment. Now...that was the extent of it, and there was a lot of guys left on, which is infuriating, but...Chapman's tough, man. He used to get bases-loaded saves with the Yanks all the time. Just give you the sliver of hope and then go in for the kill. 

The Yankees tried. But this game was gonna be the tough one, even with Max Fried having a similarly strong night. They figured out the flaws in the bullpen, and Yankee-killers like Masataka Yoshida and Alex Bregman found those puncture points. I can't say much else, man. We knew our weaknesses, and they knew 'em, and they found 'em and won. All you can hope for is that it doesn't happen again. 

This is the kind of playoff game you'd have expected from the Dodgers going into the season, with no knowledge of how disappointing much of the season would be. A huge offensive explosion against a great pitcher, double-homer days from both Ohtani and Teoscar Hernandez, some full-lineup padding, even bit players like Rortvedt and Call getting in on it, and a masterful ace performance from Blake Snell. This is what the Dodgers wanted this season to lead to, and the fact that they got a game like this even after the tumultuous year before it speaks so much to their organizational depth and forward thinking. They can build a great team and it'll be so great that even injuries can't kill it. That's the Dodgers.

Snell, by the way, erased any angst from his mostly-lost season by being his usual, dominant self, going 7 strong with 2 earned runs and 9 Ks. This is the Blake Snell that the Rays loved giving the ball to back in 2020, and the Blake Snell that eventually became a hero for San Diego. And here he is, doing exactly what he's supposed to.

The Reds did show some fight late, which makes me think Game 2 could be a little closer, and the Dodgers' very atrocious bullpen did nothing to especially quell things. But if the Dodgers start rolling now I don't know if anyone will be able to stop them.

Blake of Fire

 

Scott Boras clearly wanted the right deal for Blake Snell. That's why he worked so hard to sell his client, in a way that alienated virtually every team when the numbers weren't matching his zeal. And to be honest, Boras probably thought that getting a long-term deal for a Cy Young winning pitcher still in his prime would be simple, as it always used to be. But I think what wounded Snell was the fact that this is 2024, and it's becoming rarer and rarer for pitchers to have consecutive great seasons without some degree of wear and tear. And so...clearly scouts saw a drop-off in Snell's material as he worked out in the spring, they saw a down year, and they backed off. All of them. The Yankees were the favorite to sign snell all Spring, and they backed off and instead went for Marcus Stroman, who...honestly, was exactly the kind of guy they needed.

So all Blake Snell ended up getting from the Giants, a team that turned out not to be ready to compete, was 1 year, 32 million, and a player option if, for some reason, Snell wanted to trust the system for 2025. All Snell was given was one year, when he clearly wanted four or five. And so I do not blame Snell for his first three months. Not only was he coming off a key year, and expecting to pitch exactly like it, but he was mad at the whole Boras situation. He'd be getting to the majors late, the pressure would be on immediately, it would not be the ideal situation. So Snell getting eaten alive out there in May was bound to happen. It happened to Jordan Montgomery too. Clearly, the scouts' concerns did have some truth, and Snell was faced with a terrible first half. 

A lesser pitcher would let that stop him. Blake Snell is not that.

So Snell's past 8 starts have been nothing short of incredible. A 1.03 ERA, 70 strikeouts, 6 earned runs. A no-hitter. A .117 opposing batting average. Probably one of the best stretches of Snell's career, and that includes the Cy Young seasons. Snell is pitching like he's got nothing to prove. Clearly he's fighting for his own worth, to get a better 2025 contract, but he's pitching like nothing's on the line. The Giants are gonna succeed or fail regardless, and he's only gotten the win in 2 of his starts, which...is telling. But Snell has also gotten through 5 starts without allowing a run. This is what he's capable of right now.

The other night, Snell, against the A's, struck out 10 and allowed just one run. It was a game the bullpen would make closer than it needed to be, but it was a game where for the majority of it, the Giants didn't need to worry. And Snell, at 31, is still capable of those kinds of games, regardless of whatever the hell he was dealing with earlier in the year.

All I hope for someone like Snell is that he straightens everything out with management, and figures out how to get a modest enough deal that still gives him what he's worth without leaving him hung out to dry if he's headed for a down year. He's a smart enough guy, he just needs to learn the right lesson from this year. The obvious outcome is the Yankees spending too much money on him and things not working out from the jump, but Snell needs to figure out the best way forward, without wasting anymore of his best years.

Coming Tonight: With many homegrown youth options hurt or leaving, a replacement super-ute takes the spotlight in Toronto.

What You Get For Counting Him Out

 

Blake Snell, in his many years in the league, has become extremely good at becoming excellent at baseball at moments where no one expects him to. It happened in 2018, where he went from a mid-rotation strikeout artist to a Cy Young, then it happened in 2020 where he led his team to a World Series, then it happened last year where, after a few years of counting his money in San Diego, he put together an insane, completely unhittable campaign. 

And then Scott Boras screwed him and he wound up scaring other teams and signing a short term deal with the Giants, his arm was still tired from last year resulting in terrible starts and a couple IL stints, and it looked like the Giants blew it signing him.

And then...Blake Snell comes back off the IL, and he proceeds to pitch better than he has in years. Solely because no one is expecting him to.

This no-hitter against the Reds was the pinnacle of this. Until last night's game, Snell had never pitched in the ninth. They always take him out after like 5 or 6. Kevin Cash famously lost a World Series because of this. Mostly to conserve his arm. We'll see if they had a point in the coming weeks. But Snell looked dominant as hell against a fairly tough Reds team, and silenced even their marquee players to give the Giants their first no-hitter since Chris Heston. He's not the first Giants pitcher to throw a no-hitter after already having won two Cy Young awards, but he's definitely cemented himself in Giants fans hearts for finally going the distance after some early struggles.

Snell is one of the defining pitchers of the last decade, regardless of his ebbs and flows. And to see him get a no-hitter in addition to his other accolades is pretty cool. Not every great pitcher can no-hit a team. In fact, a lot of terrible pitchers have no hit teams. One even pitched a perfect game last year. But Snell added another great accomplishment to his book, and that's pretty awesome. 

How The Boras Guys Are Doing

 

The story so far: this offseason, it took what seemed like forever for a ton of Scott Boras clients to find places to sign. The negotiating that Boras was doing, asking for huge contracts and not coming down, despite teams being more realistic about how much they wanted to spend, and for how long, on these guys, annoyed the hell out of the whole league. It got to the point where, after he signed, Jordan Montgomery went with a different agent. I think that teams, and players will be less prone to work with Boras going forward, though considering that he represents one of the biggest free agents of the 2025 offseason...hold onto your hats, folks.

But I thought it'd be interesting to look at those main 5 guys that Boras held til the last month of the offseason, and see how they're doing, if the shorter spring training period has affected their gameplay, if teams were right in holding out. 

Matt Chapman: The deal that Chapman signed with the Giants is a 1 year deal worth 20 million, with mutual options for the next three years, and judging by how he's been doing so far, I hope for the Giants' sake that Chapman enjoys his return to the Bay Area. Defensively, Chapman's still one of the best third baseman in the bigs, and he's fit in well with this infield. He's only hitting .224 with 12 RBIs and 4 homers, but it's still decent production. I think that Chapman's more likely to shoot for 25 homers these days than 35, and I think the Giants are aware of that; seeing that they have Jorge Soler and Michael Conforto, they're not 100% relying on Chapman for power. I do think that, of the Boras guys, Chapman has had the least amount of learning curve to the new location, though the hope is that his hitting numbers will heat up soon enough.

Blake Snell: Of all of these guys, I think this is the case where I get why the teams didn't completely go all in. Blake Snell is an excellent pitcher, and a Cy Young winner, but he's never been excellent multiple seasons in a row. He needs his comedown periods, and I think everyone's aware of it. Snell got 1 year 32 million from the Giants, with an option for Snell if he wants to stick around for 2025. Truthfully, it's because they don't know if Snell's 2024 will be a disappointment or not, and want to hedge their bets. And so...so far, it's looking like the Giants made the correct move. Blake Snell, through 3 starts, has an 11.57 ERA, an 0-3 record and a 1.971 WHIP. He's struck out 12 batters, so he can still do that, but people are hitting him more frequently than they did last season. Now, the case could be made that this wouldn't be happening if he had a full spring with the Giants to iron out the kinks, but...after last season, there's a chance he overexerted himself and needs a longer cooldown period, or perhaps another damned surgery. He could come back around, he could just need a few starts to adjust, but this isn't looking great.

Cody Bellinger: It was pretty clear that Bellinger was gonna end up back with the Cubs, it was just a matter of how long he'd be down for. Because of Boras' prattling they only got 1 year guaranteed with a couple options, for 30 million, and while it does prevent against Bellinger's 2023 being a fluke, it also makes this process repeat if Bellinger's 2024 goes well. So far, though, he's been purely alright, with 4 homers, 14 RBIs and a 0.3 WAR. Basically, he needs to have a few more really strong hitting weeks and he'll be 'back' in a sense. I'm not thinking he's reverted to how he was in his last few years in LA, at least not yet, but Bellinger is the kind of guy that could heat up out of nowhere. 

Jordan Montgomery: Gumby was the longest holdout, signing near the very end of Spring Training, and this saga ending in a 1-year, 25 million dollar deal with Arizona does explain why he eventually sought out different representation. Because of the late signing, he began the season in extended camp, made some minor league starts, and didn't make it up to the D-Backs til a few days ago. Thankfully, his first start for the team seemed to be indicative of his 2023 success, as he went 6 innings with a 1.50 ERA, allowing only 1 earned run and getting the win. Funnily enough, said debut was in a game against Blake Snell, who did not do as well. I'm thinking Montgomery got enough done in the minors to let the adjustment not completely psych him out, and he should be good going forward.

J.D. Martinez: The only one of the Boras guys that has yet to play this year, J.D. Martinez signed a minuscule by comparison 1 year, 12 million dollar deal with the Mets, went through a similar extended camp period to Montgomery, and because of some injury setbacks, has remained in Port St. Lucie. The Mets announced yesterday that they're hoping Martinez will be up with the club by the end of the week, and seeing as the injury to Francisco Alvarez has left them really needing a DH, it could come at a great time for the team. Time will tell if Martinez is worth his weight, and at 36, he hopefully has enough left to calm Mets fan concerns.

We'll see if these early periods have any effect on the full seasons of this group. It's looking good for Chapman and Montgomery at the moment, but you never know how things will fully develop.

Coming Tonight: At worst, he's still a gold-glove infielder. We're beginning to see him at his best. 

Prolonging the Inevitable

 

The theme of this MLB offseason was clearly money. How to spend it, when to spend it, how to flex how much of it you have. The most intriguing developments of the offseason involved either the Dodgers spending hundreds of millions on Ohtani and Yamamoto and deferring contract payment, or the Orioles being bought by someone willing to spend money and secure players, or the Brewers signing Jackson Chourio to an extension before he even plays a game in Milwaukee. A year after the biggest development of the offseason was...well, the owners refusing to move an inch on concessions to the players' union, it's definitely a change of pace that some of the most talented players in the game are getting their money's worth, and then some [at the expense of the quality of uniforms, perhaps, but still..]

And yet here we are, less than a month before the season is to begin, and three of the biggest free agents on the table still haven't signed. Coincidentally, they're all represented by the same agent, the ever-slick and ever-infuriating Scott Boras, who has spent the offseason pumping Blake Snell, Matt Chapman, Cody Bellinger and J.D. Martinez up to believe they deserve hundreds of millions and long term deals, all while the teams they are negotiating with aren't at all willing to fork over that kind of money for these kinds of players. The stalemates are even more infuriating when you consider that one of these players, Snell, just won a Cy Young and is considered one of the most valuable pitchers in the game, and another, Bellinger, is coming off an excellent comeback season and deserves a higher payday. 

Like the strike, there can be criticisms of both sides. You know, 'how dare the owners be conservative and not want to win', of course people will say something like that. But Boras is, at the end of the day, a salesman, and there's this belief that his years of overselling and overpoaching has infuriated the owners, and they've all become more stubborn, and more deliberate, in dealing with him specifically. Some of this has nothing to do with the players; as we found out last night, the Giants were going to sign Matt Chapman regardless of how long it'd take. It was just the price that Boras and Chapman were asking for wasn't at all what the Giants were planning on, especially considering that they'd just taken on Jung Ho Lee AND Jorge Soler. The same thing happened with Cody Bellinger; everybody knew that Bellinger would re-sign with the Cubs, and the fact that it took three extra months for the two parties to agree on a dollar amount is kind of sad. Yes, they got a deal together, even if it was less than Bellinger arguably deserves, but now Bellinger is in camp and catching up to be ready by Opening Day.

And that's the main problem I have with Boras' holdouts. Yes, you can condition all you want in your own training facilities and do whatever conditioning and individual prep you want but there is a direct correlation between arriving late to Spring Training and underwhelming regular season statistics. I think of the two holdouts of the 2019 season- Josh Donaldson eventually caved and signed with Atlanta, and his numbers, while fine, were the beginning of a career downturn for the former MVP. Craig Kimbrel waited until the season had already begun to sign with Chicago, and by that point he was looking at a truncated season anyway, the quality of which was, understandably, shaky. Even last year Carlos Correa was a later addition to the Twins' roster, and while he had some cool moments, you could tell he was still a bit thrown off for a lot of the year. 

That is what worries me about all four of these guys. Their offseason limbo has spread to spring training, and the clock is ticking on how much actual prep time they're gonna get before somebody hands them the ball. Blake Snell clearly wants to pitch in the Bronx, and there's clearly space for him in the rotation, but he's gonna have to accept a smaller, shorter deal if he wants to cut to the chase and sign where everyone is expecting him to sign [I suppose he could sign with the Angels as well but I have no idea why he'd want to do that]. J.D. Martinez is either gonna sign with the Mets or the Tigers I think, and I don't think he's willing to accept that it's wiser to go with a 2 year, inexpensive deal, seeing as he's turning 37 this year and exiting his prime period. I assume there's at least one more week of stubbornness that all parties will allow Boras before this becomes a problem, though the recent signings of Bellinger and Chapman do point to something happening very soon with both players.

There's always going to be something inherently wrong with the structure of baseball. Scott Boras is thankfully a 'something wrong' that can be helped, I think. It's just gonna take players realizing that he's not the answer. 

As for Yamamoto and Ohtani in LA? I really hope both of them pan out the way the Dodgers want them to. I look at last season, and how there was an entire pitching rotation that cratered because none of them stayed healthy, and I worry it could happen again, especially considering that Yoshinobu Yamamoto is a Japanese pitcher acclimating to US hitters. I know it's easy to root against the Dodgers, but I kinda want this to work solely because a team with Ohtani, Freeman and Betts would be cool if it won everything. Not sure if it will, but it'd be cool.

Cy Youngs: An Ironic Reparation

 

Blake Snell won 20 games in 2018 and got a Cy Young. Gerrit Cole won 20 games in 2019 and got nothing. Both of them won Cy Youngs tonight. Confidentially, the wrong pitcher got his second.

I think about some of the pitchers that have gotten two Cy Youngs in the last 20 years, and not all have had the career legs that said accomplishment would normally denote. Johan Santana, Tim Lincecum, Corey Kluber..they all have 2 each, and they were unable to perform equally impressive second acts. Snell got his second Cy Young during his age-30 season, and he's a free agent. Sounds a lot like Robbie Ray after getting his first. Someone is gonna overpay for Snell this offseason and probably have to deal with some injuries. 

This isn't meant to diminish Snell's season. In a year where Darvish, Musgrove and Wacha were expected to perform, Snell just pitched steadily all year, setting a career mark in strikeouts with 234, and leading the league in ERA with 2.25. This was a season that was serviceable in the first half and became even more impressive in the second, as frontrunners like Zac Gallen and Logan Webb suffered inflated ERAs after choice starts. Snell is personally not the guy I would have gone with, as like in the AL last year, my pick for the top pitcher in the NL wasn't even in the top 3. Justin Steele was the top dog for me, but perhaps he'll prove himself in the coming years.

Snell had his most consistent, most healthy and most dominant season in 2023. I really hope he can recreate this somehow, though I'm not sure if he will.

As for the AL pick...we all knew. I knew in March when I saw Gerrit Cole in a Spring start. I knew when I saw him in June. I just knew he had the stuff, and if he kept rolling, no one would catch him. And that's exactly what happened. Gerrit Cole, surprisingly I might add, didn't have to out-strikeout everybody, with only 222 Ks [LESS THAN SNELL]. He didn't even need a 20-win year, he only finished with 15, thanks mainly to the Yankees' rough final 2 months. All Cole needed to do was cruise, and he absolutely did; he had league marks in innings pitched, starts made, ERA and WHIP. He also set a new career WAR mark, which, after his Astros years, is pretty satisfying.

This is the exact kind of season the Yankees signed Gerrit Cole for. He's delivered virtually every year of the contract, and this was the next logical step in it. This season also put him on the right track for both 200 wins and 3000 strikeouts. I sincerely hope Cole continues to deliver for us, and continues to be relied upon, even as he enters his mid-30s.

MVPs tomorrow. One is simple. The other...should be simple, but I'm kinda hoping isn't.

The Snell of Victory

 

It's very odd how this Padres team worked out. It would have been hard for me to predict back in March that in a rotation consisting of Yu Darvish, Joe Musgrove, Michael Wacha, Blake Snell and Seth Lugo, that Snell would be having the best season.

By one metric it'd be an easy assumption- Snell has a Cy Young, the rest don't. Tell that to the Mets, they have like 6 Cy Youngs in that rotation and are still behind Philly. Awards don't always mean something when indicating future success. And so while Snell was excellent with the Rays, for a while I just thought he caught his peak at the right time and with the right team, and would be fairly serviceable in all other roles. And for the last few years, that's what Blake Snell has been, serviceable. He improved slightly last year by getting his ERA back under 4, but it took an 8-10 record to do that. Snell has averaged 170 strikeouts in the last two seasons, which is a fine metric to simmer at considering he's only broken 200 once in his career. 

Even now, as he leads the rotation in innings, has 121 strikeouts and a 3 ERA, he's got a negative W/L ratio. Snell has only finished a season with more wins than losses twice in his career, which is a weird thing to say about someone who was considered one of the best pitchers in the game a few years back. Even now he's 5-7, which you can chalk up to the Padres being something of a disappointment this year. Snell came to San Diego to compete, and now he's wound up in a similar place he was in back in Tampa, where it's really up to him to do the brunt of the work while the offense may or may not show up. And, like, it's going well for him, but I think they'd all prefer it if the team was better.

The Padres have been doing better lately, and have won 4 of their last 5, but it's looking like they'll be going into the ASG break with an under .500 record, which is not what a team that nearly made it to a World Series should want to look like the following year. It's not like the stars have exactly let this team down per se, as Tatis, Soto, Bogaerts and Hader are handing in great seasons, and now Manny Machado is catching up, with 20 RBIs and 6 homers since June 10th. This team also has Ha-Seong Kim, who might be one of the single best defensive players in baseball, and whose added offensive ability is making him even more valuable.

The problem is that this division is still one where so many teams want to get a word in edgewise, and though the Giants have returned to earth a bit, they still have more working starters and more lower-budget successes. The Padres have had expensive misfires, like Nelson Cruz, Matt Carpenter and Drew Pomeranz, who's still barely pitched for this team since signing a new contract. There have been successes on the buying front, but they won't be full successes unless this team does something, and it's getting to be likely that it might not even be this year. The Padres need to figure out if 2023 is a wash or not, and how to properly prepare for that.

Coming Tomorrow- Like his father before him, he annihilates baseballs.

Aha Blake Heartbreak

 

Even if the Brewers have lost a little ground in the NL Wild Card race, they're still two games behind the pack for a spot. Which means we have a Wild Card race where four teams are hunting for three spots. Someone is going to be unlucky, and with the Braves essentially guaranteed that fourth seed, it's going to be either the Padres, Brewers or Phillies.

Now...one of these teams is famously unlucky, so even if we all know going in that the likeliest of these three to choke is prooooobably the Phillies, it's still anybody's game. All three of these guys have had numerous human moments this year. The Brewers dropped a lead to the Cardinals and had a torrid August. The Phillies...well take your pick, but blowing this Braves series probably qualifies. And the Padres have only won 8 games so far this month. Even if the wins have been nice, many of them recent, the losses have bogged them down and stopped them from being the postseason lock they were earlier in the season. Now, Padres fans saw this happen just last year, and it was heartbreaking to see the team fall apart in August and miss out on a wild card spot in September.

...probably not a great note that they would have made the playoffs if the expanded wild card scenario was instituted last year. So, thanks Manfred. 

The Padres do thankfully have a fuller, more competent team this year, even without Tatis. Soto, Bell and Drury have been strong, if imperfect, additions to the Padres' lineup, and Soto has fit right into the bigger-game mentality in San Diego. Manny Machado has fulfilled his status as the everyman hero for this team, and Jake Cronenworth, Ha-Seong Kim, Trent Grisham, Jurickson Profar and Austin Nola have been excellent, versatile supplemental pieces. 

The rotation has gotten even stronger as the year's gone on, with Blake Snell improving on a weaker first half with a current ERA of 3.85 and 146 strikeouts. Mike Clevinger, though not quite as satisfying as the ace the Padres thought they were getting in mid-2020, has still been strong in 19 starts, notching 83 Ks in that time. And, obviously, Darvish and Musgrove are still having awesome seasons, with Darvish turning in a career start yesterday. This team has a ton of postseason options and could be a match against any of their wild card rivals. 

I do think the Padres have the best chance right now of the three up-in-the-air wild card teams, but they need to prove they have enough to make it past the first round. They have a good team, but it needs to really catch fire. 

Coming Tonight: A contact-hitting outfielder who seemed like he couldn't make it anywhere. So, naturally, he makes it in Tampa.

Snells Like Teen Spirit

 

It's looking like the last NL Wild Card spot is going to come down to the Reds and the Padres. Two teams that made the playoffs last year. One got extremely far and went toe-to-toe with the Dodgers, only losing by a slim margin. The other didn't last long at all but still made themselves known.

And while the Cardinals and Phillies could still find themselves in there...the Padres still have the best case of anybody to take on the Dodgers, I think. Unlike the Reds, Phillies and Cardinals, I do see the Padres beating the Dodgers in a one-game playoff. Pitch Joe Musgrove, Yu Darvish or Blake Snell and see what happens.

I just look at this lineup, and it still feels like a playoff team. Machado, Tatis, Cronenworth, Hosmer, Grisham, Kim and Pham are all having excellent seasons. Tatis has even gotten over an injury and a position change and he's still playing really well. Frazier and Marisnick haven't been perfect but still have had some nice moments. There's amazing power numbers AND contact numbers. This is a team that can do so many things without being even the top team in the division.

I do worry about the second half downturn of people like Yu Darvish, Ryan Weathers or Dinelson Lamet, and the fact that...as of right now, the Padres' rotation isn't as strong as it has been all year. And the lower ERAs are the result of the sort of slope the team has taken since the end of the first half. On the other side, Blake Snell has improved greatly in the second half, has had some very nice starts, including a near-hitless outing that was fouled up by the bullpen, and is looking more like his Tampa self as we go on. Snell could be a huge player in a playoff scenario, as could Darvish and Musgrove. 

It just takes holding onto this stretch, fending off the Reds, and proving that they have what it takes to take on the Dodgers. Because it's a game that both everyone wants to play and no one wants to play, because for most teams it's a definite loss. But the Padres have enough to convince me that they can overthrow the alpha and take it further. It's not definite, but they have a chance, in my eyes.

Coming Tonight: An outfielder fighting to join his older brother in the playoffs. 

2020 Topps Final Edition: Cards #181-189

180 cards in and these 2020 Final Edition cards are still fun to post. Lot of interesting cases, lot of impressive stories. Lots that factors into the 2021 season as well. Onto another 9

Card #181- Dylan Floro, Los Angeles Dodgers

Dylan Floro first came to prominence as a trusty relief option in Cincinnati before being traded to the Dodgers at the deadline. Floro quickly became an under-the-radar relief talent for the Dodgers, especially during their championship season last year. During the regular season, and 25 games of play, Floro had a 2.59 ERA with 3 wins and 19 Ks, then struck out 7 in the postseason despite being a bit more hit-friendly against the Rays offense. Floro is now a relief option in Miami, and so far he's been doing extremely well. 

Card #182- Andre Scrubb, Houston Astros

2020 was a year where, despite still being relied upon as a threat in the AL West, the Astros needed to rely on a lot of rookie talent. Enter rookie reliever Andre Scrubb, with a cut-and-dry delivery and an imposing stature. Through 24 innings, Scrubb had a 1.90 ERA and 24 Ks, plus a 1.0 WAR, and was similarly lights-out in the postseason. Scrubb's particular and controlling ways have been missed in the past month of Houston baseball, but Scrubb will hopefully be off the IL relatively soon.

Card #183- Tommy Milone, Baltimore Orioles

This will be a good fun fact in about ten years- Tommy Milone was the Orioles' Opening Day starter in 2020, despite the rotation having John Means, Alex Cobb and Jorge Lopez. Milone was heavily relied upon in his month of Baltimore tenure, and posted a 3.99 ERA in 6 starts, despite a 1-4 record. He was rewarded for his decent numbers with a trade to Atlanta, at which point his numbers ballooned and an injury paved the way for Bryse Wilson. Now he's pitching in relief for the Blue Jays

Card #184- John Gant, St. Louis Cardinals

John Gant has been one of those names that's been around the Cardinals pitching staff for a few years now and yet hasn't really had many huge moments yet. 2020 was something of a prelude though, as the right-hander continued his bullpen dominance from the previous year by having a 2.40 ERA in 17 games, and proving himself as a consistent option in a season of inconsistency in St. Louis. The ploy worked- Gant is now a trusted starter for the Cards, and has been strong in 4 starts so far.

Card #185- Trevor May, Minnesota Twins

I already gave you Tyler Duffey, one of the Twins' perennial relief masters of late, a few posts ago, so here's his battery partner, or former battery partner, Trevor May. 2020 was another strong season for May, with 38 Ks in 24 appearances, and a 3.86 ERA. It led to the rest of the league taking notice, and eventually the Mets had no choice but to sign him to a 2-year deal. So far he's been decent.

Card #186- Alex Claudio, Milwaukee Brewers

Two years removed from his long run as a member of the Rangers bullpen, Alex Claudio finished off his similarly-strong tenure in Milwaukee by being one of many trusted bullpen arms in a very odd yet competitive Brewers season. Claudio closed out 7 of 20 games, and had 15 Ks as well. His ERA left a bit to be desired, which explains why the Angels took Claudio on cautiously, but hopefully he'll get back to his Rangers numbers eventually.

Card #187- Jeurys Familia, New York Mets

Something about homegrown relievers in New York that breed controversy. First Jenrry Mejia, then Jeurys Familia. Edwin Diaz wasn't homegrown but he's sure been divisive as well. Familia isn't exactly forgiven for his recent control issues, and his 2018 departure in search of a playoff run, but having his best year since the return certainly helps. Familia's 25 games weren't in the closing role [again, Edwin Diaz had that], but a 3.71 ERA and 23 Ks were enough to get fans back on his side, at least a little bit. Plus, he's doing pretty well once again so far this season. 

Card #188- Franchy Cordero, Kansas City Royals

Hey, a batter! One of the earliest trades of the 2020 deadline was a relatively simple one- Tim Hill to San Diego; Franchy Cordero to Kansas City. The deal worked pretty well for both parties- Hill was a great bullpen piece for the Padres, and Franchy Cordero was a major player in the race for the empty outfield spot in KC. Cordero's 16 games only yielded a .211 average and 7 RBIs, but it was enough for the Red Sox to trade for him in the Benintendi deal. Cordero is currently yielding similar results in Boston.

Card #189- Blake Snell ASG, Tampa Bay Rays

Realistically, if there had been an All Star Game last year, Blake Snell definitely would have been asked to be on the AL's pitching staff. It's just a matter or whether A.J. Hinch would have removed Snell too early or not. 

Friday we get 9 more cards from this set. More hitters, thank the gods, and a few cool ignored sights people have been waiting for. 

Don't Yu Believe It

 

So, let's check in with the new additions to the San Diego rotation.

Blake Snell may have made the biggest splash, with 8 strikeouts and no earned runs in nearly 5 innings. The concerning part is the early departure, but I figure that Jayce Tingler is following in Kevin Cash's footsteps in taking Blake Snell out of a game too damned early. Maybe it's the thing people do. 

And then Joe Musgrove had another really nice first start in San Diego, with 8 Ks and no earned runs in 6 innings, plus a game win. Was not expecting Musgrove to look the most polished out of everybody, but apparently what's good for Pittsburgh is also really good for the rest of the league as well.

And then there's the guy everybody thought would be running things. Yu Darvish. Whose first start left a bit to be desired.

I'm not saying Yu's first start of indicative of his entire season. Heck, his Cubs tenure famously took a while to get going, and he's one of those pitchers who needs time to acclimate to new environments. But 4 earned runs in 4.2 innings is not a good look, especially for an Opening Day start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, who are circling last this year. If it weren't for an insanely strong bullpen saving the day, including pristine numbers from Emilio Pagan, Taylor Williams, Keone Kela and closer Mark Melancon [I like the sound of that], the Padres would have been worse off.

The two hangers-on left in the rotation, Paddack and Morejon, are merely set dressing right now. Paddack is perfectly fine as a late-rotation starter [though he could pull a Patrick Corbin and come to life when nobody's expecting it], and Morejon is probably gonna surprise people by being pretty decent while they wait for Dinelson Lamet to come back. I'm writing this prior to Morejon's monday night start, so maybe he did a decent enough job against los Gigantes.

Meanwhile, the lineup hasn't been much of a problem. Eric Hosmer is absolutely on fire, Jurickson Profar is batting .400, Will Myers and Jake Cronenworth are providing great support and Fernando Tatis, while currently sub-.200, is still capable of mashing back in the early part of the season. You also have nice bench presences from former Yankee farmhand Jorge Mateo and Korean newcomer Ha-Seong Kim. While it's gonna take a bit for big pieces like Austin Nola and Trent Grisham rejoin the squad, they're still doing well enough right now to feel like a serious threat to the Dodgers for the throne.

In the coming weeks, we'll get a better picture of this rotation, and of Yu Darvish. Then I'll make a clearer judgment of things.

Coming Tomorrow- I was watching the movie Heist the other day. David Mamet film, very deliberate dialogue. There's a scene where Gene Hackman and Danny DeVito are talking about Hackman's girlfriend. Hackman says "I'm very resilient." Devito replies "so's Gumby." Reminded me of someone who pitches for my team. 

Friars are Buyers, Not Sellers, Thanks Preller

 
Six years ago, the San Diego Padres got Craig Kimbrel, Matt Kemp, Justin Upton, Derek Norris and Wil Myers during the offseason, beefed up their team with contracts and looked to be a contender for the 2015 season. Despite A.J. Preller's best efforts, they didn't. Solely because they didn't have a good enough foundation before getting several contracts. All they had was Will Venable, Alexi Amarista, Tyson Ross and...some hope.

Well...five years passed. Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Mike Clevinger and Tommy Pham arrive in San Diego, and Chris Paddack, Dinelson Lamet and Fernando Tatis have come up. Now we've got a solid foundation, so if A.J. Preller wants to sign and trade for some people, he can go right ahead.

And so he did.

Firstly, he commandeered a wily trade that got Blake Snell, the Rays' chief fireballer, to San Diego in exchange for Francisco Mejia and some prospects. That alone is pretty cool, as it gives the Rays something they lacked last year after Clevinger and Lamet got injured- a solid staff ace. Snell, if he stays healthy, will give the Padres 200+ strikeouts, some major velocity, and an ace presence that will hopefully be around for more than 5 innings per game. 

Then Preller did the most ill-fitting bit of the deals, and signed Ha-Seong Kim, the Korean infielder who was looking like one of the biggest international pieces on the board this season. Kim will be a great contact asset and infield boost...but the only problem is he's a SS-3B type, and Fernando Tatis and Manny Machado sure aren't moving. There's also Jake Cronenworth on 2nd, and he put a lot together for that position in 2020. What's probably going to happen is Cronenworth is gonna move to left, and Kim will just play there next season. Which hopefully will work, I mean I trust Cronenworth's versatility. But...it seems slightly excessive. Would Kim have fit somewhere that truly needed a middle-infielder over somewhere that would make Kim fit regardless? Probably.

But, thankfully, Preller rebounded with the biggest trade of the 24-hour period. 

Not only did the Padres manage to land both Yu Darvish AND Victor Caratini, but they kept most of their big prospects on the board and only gave up one established star, Zach Davies. 

So, now two of the biggest strikeout artists in baseball are on the Padres. Darvish nearly won a Cy Young last year, and is coming off one of his best seasons. I am worried about his learning curve in Chicago, and that the results may not come immediately in San Diego, but he's still a league-great asset and will definitely aid San Diego's playoff attempt. Plus, I reckon Victor Caratini will chase Austin Nola for the starting catching position, and possibly get it comparatively. Caratini is a great catcher that's just looking for a free enough climate to start games, and SD looks like that.

So...yeah, the Padres now have two amazing starting pitchers, a new option for catcher, and an infield phenom, and only got rid of a few established stars and prospects. Therefore, once again, Preller has an early lead over the offseason. It remains to be seen whether or not this will amount to a playoff run, though...it would be nice, wouldn't it?

Wild Card Series' Day 1: Color Me Shocked

 

Not even an impressive start from Kenta Maeda could keep the true villains of the MLB at bay, with George Springer, Framber Valdez, Michael Brantley and even noted villain Jose Altuve attacking the Twins' bullpen late to score a victory in Game 1. I am devoutly rooting for Minnesota in this series, solely because I want good things for baseball, but I'd really hate for the Twins' momentum to wear off right when they're playing an under .500 team in the playoffs. Hopefully tomorrow, and Jose Berrios, will bring better luck. 

Meanwhile, I had to watch this guy work for a few innings, and though the perfect game bid ended in inning 7, his stuff today was NASTY. So many confusing pitches that the A's couldn't make heads nor tails of, and so many solid innings of work. It did take some bullpen assistance to put them over the top, but the White Sox looked unbeatable against one of the best teams in baseball, and I absolutely love to see it.

The token 8-1 bracket in the playoffs has known to be kind of predictable, and when your 1 seed is the Tampa Bay Rays, you kind of get what you pay for. Especially when you're dealing with a matchup between on-target Blake Snell and Matt Shoemaker during a down year. Snell was flawless today, with 9 strikeouts over 5.2 innings, and no earned runs. Not exactly shocked that Snell has become a good postseason arm, and hopefully the luck will continue for Tampa.

And...then there's this guy, who completely shut down the Indians tonight with 13 strikeouts, gave another in a long line of stellar performances, and watched as Gleyber Torres, Giancarlo Stanton, Brett Gardner and Gio Urshela aided in making a big opening victory over Cleveland for Game 1. It's an astonishing statement from a team that was beginning to peter out, and it was fun to watch. Tomorrow, with a lesser pitcher against the same lineup, it'll be interesting to see the contrast.

Tomorrow, some NL matches, and some more fun.

The Snell of Fear

 

Welp...I guess I have to suffer this year as well.

The Yankees just...can't simply win when they're supposed to. The Blue Jays have caught steam and have usurped them in the standings. And the Rays, despite injuries to the bullpen and Yandy Diaz,...CANNOT...SEEM...TO SLOW DOWN.

I'm not gonna say I'm shocked, because this Rays team has been fantastic for the last 2 years, defying odds with low-budget stars that eventually become high-ticket players, like Blake Snell, Willy Adames, Kevin Kiermaier and Nick Anderson, all gaining infamy and clout by being a part of these teams. 

Look, you'd think that stripping the rotation of Yarbrough and Chirinos would slow the Rays down, but now Josh Fleming is starting games and impressing people, and John Curtiss and Trevor Richards are solid bobbing for the final spot. Even Charlie Morton and Blake Snell have recovered from high ERAs. The bullpen has turned itself around after losing several mainstays to injury, and are using guys like Aaron Loup and Cody Reed, and they're still completely stopping runs.

Also, even the bench is owning with this team. Mike Brosseau is getting more and more playing time, Kevan Smith is getting some much-needed starting time behind the plate, Randy Arozarena has a high average, Joey Wendle has finally reentered the lineup as a starter, Manny Margot is hitting again, and, of course, Lowe, Kiermaier and Adames are the heart of this team. 

I don't know how the Rays can consistently develop great teams without spending too much or trying too hard, but they've done it again. They're gonna go into the postseason as one of the top-seeded AL teams, as much as it pains me to say it. And whatever riches they acquire, they'll deserve.

Coming Tonight: His brother's catching for the pennant contending Padres, and he's the ace for another wild card team whose hot streak just came to an abrupt end.

ALDS Update: That's More Like It Edition

Okay, so the outcome we were all kind of expecting from this ALDS matchup did end up happening...it just took longer to shake out than we thought.

All this means is that everyone who predicted the Astros would win the entire thing just need to adjust some figures, and say it may take a few more games for them to win a series. Or, considering that they had trouble with the Rays, and they're about to play a Yankee team that demolished the #1 home-run-hitting team of the year...yeah, maybe a few more figures as well.

Still, considering the offensive onslaught that came down on Tyler Glasnow's tipped pitches last night, thanks to Yuli Gurriel, Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Michael Brantley later off of Emilio Pagan, the Yanks might still have some real trouble with this team in the ALCS next week. Considering how sharp Gerrit Cole was, and considering where Zack Greinke could be when he starts Game 1 (I mean, this is assuming a lot), the Yanks' offense may be muffled quite a bit.

Still, glad they made it. Good for baseball.

That's not to say that a Rays win wouldn't have been good for baseball, but seeing as two surprise, bottom-feeder teams already made it into the NLCS, a third would have made Rob Manfred very angry. And we don't want him angrier than he already is at the single most calm game of the big four.

This Rays team certainly outdid expectations, I'd say. The lineup was strong through all five games, the bullpen came alive when it was needed most, and even Eric Sogard had a big postseason hero moment last night amidst the Houston dominance. But, unfortunately, they couldn't get past playing a division series against the Astros. As fun as it would have been to see them play the Yankees in the ALCS, and it might have been easier for them, nothing was stopping Houston.

I hope the Rays keep a great deal of this team around for 2020, because this one just really worked.

So...tonight, we're right into the NLCS. Nats-Cardinals in St. Louis. Sanchez vs. Mikolas. Battle of the teams that really shouldn't be here. Sure to be interesting.

Cy Youngs: The Statistical Insurrection

2010 Jordan would be SO PISSED at these two for getting Cy Young this year.

Blake Snell was a surprise pick for the Cy, solely because he was barely expected to be a part of the starting picture in April, and...he was the only constant starter in Tampa this year. And man, if this guy isn't a strikeout artist. If the Rays end up getting back into the playoff race, Snell will be one hell of an ace. I do worry that giving it to Snell rather than an established star like Verlander or Sale will doom Snell to be a one-off fluke, but...hopefully he'll keep things together.

Meanwhile, Jacob deGrom...falls into the 2010 Felix Hernandez category of 'does he really deserve it?' Unlike King Felix, the closest rival to deGrom already has 3 Cy Youngs, and the other closest rival is a guy who, while great this year, still has a few more prime seasons left for another shot at Cy (and hopefully, Aaron, you'll get there). So if anyone's gonna get it, it should be deGrom.

But...deGrom played on a team that stuck him with a crap W/L record, and squandered the game even when deGrom was throwing fire, which was every game. If he hadn't played for the Mets this year, I'd be a lot more firm in saying deGrom deserved this award. But the quality of his material despite the Mets' bullpen is the real take here- insanely low ERA, a ton of strikeouts, and some dominance that is the pinnacle of Jacob deGrom's tenure in Flushing. It's a win that may be contested in the future, but I'm perfectly fine with it, and I think it's about time deGrom won one.

Tomorrow, we get our MVPs. Like the Cy Youngs, these two races look predictable, but you never know who'll slide in a last minute Baez vote.

What's That Snell? And Other 2018 Rays Oddities

Blake Snell is one of the oddest-looking pitchers in the league.

Yeah, that's how I'm starting this post about the Rays. The weirdest team in baseball. I'm starting by saying their starting pitcher, and borderline ace, looks really weird.

It's even weirder that their usual go-to ace, Chris Archer, is having a down season, and is deferring to Snell, a third-year finalist for the Aaron Harang aware for ugliest face in the majors. And it's weirder still that Nate Eovaldi, a guy who hasn't pitched in 2 years, is undeniably strong after 1 start.

Again, this team is working in ways that it shouldn't. They've used an 'opener' strategy on multiple occasions, letting Sergio Romo and Ryan Yarbrough pitch the first inning and then go away. They've used Jonny Venters, after he'd missed multiple seasons of injuries, to success. The team's being carried by unknowns like Daniel Robertson, Joey Wendle and Johnny Field, as the usual standouts, Longoria and Kiermaier, are gone and injured respectively. C.J. Cron, a guy the Angels basically gave away, is leading the team in home runs with 12. And Christian Arroyo, a guy who disappointed in his come-up with the Giants, isn't doing too bad here.

Now, granted, they're still miles out of the main AL East race, and are still under .500, but...they're too weird to not root for at this point. Little things are working for the Rays, and this team might actually become something rather soon.

Coming Tonight: Hopefully a report from Hagerstown, MD.