The Unlikeliest Spoiler

 

I've discussed before my designation of a team as a 'spoiler' when A.) it becomes clear that they're not going to compete, B.) the rest of their schedule seems to consist of only competitors or wild card hopefuls, and C.) they proceed to win a ton of games down the stretch specifically against teams that at one point sought to compete. Reaping the souls of teams that pegged themselves playoff teams, and making it clear they're true flaws. The usual spoiler team is the Mets, but seeing as they're actually competing this year [as evidenced by a HUGE series win against the Orioles], it's gonna have to be someone else. A team that's not good enough to be a good team, but tough enough for teams that may be better than them to let their guard down.

...Is it strange if I say this probably describes the A's this year?

I mean, yes, I know, the A's have a chance of losing 100 games this year, the possibility is out there if they have 27 more losses in them, which...with a team of their caliber, could happen. But just take a look at how they've done against competitive teams this year. You may have heard about how the Phillies series went, and how Lawrence Butler came alive against them. They also took some crucial games from the Astros after the ASG break, upset the A's during the Bay series, drilled the Jays, took two from the Mets, and have made the Rays look inadequate. And this is in addition to EIGHT wins against the Angels since the start of July. They've played the Angels nine times and won eight of those times. If things go well, the A's will have moved into fourth place, and could very well be the only AL West team aside from Houston willing to move up rather than crash further downward.

[Again, apologies to the Mariners, hope the Dan Wilson era goes a little better].

I'm not sure if it's stranger that the A's are able to do this, or that they're able to do this with a ton of nobodies. People like Joey Estes, Osvaldo Bido, Mitch Spence and Joe Boyle have been responsible for great recent starts. These people would normally be back in Triple-A, but they're helping the major league club stay alive. Max Schuemann has become one of the most valuable A's solely for how strong and speedy he's been as a middle infield piece. Zach Gelof has improved since the beginning of the year and has locked down 2nd base. Mason Miller and Brent Rooker are league talents this year. 

The A's are not in full Moneyball mode, but they can win games with this kind of team, and that's at least making the last month and a half of Oakland gameplay exciting. It's just a pity this is gonna be the note this team goes out on in the Bay area.

Coming Tomorrow- It took a while for this guy to come back from a 2023 injury, but...he's been a better part of this team than Kris Bryant, so..

Steele and Glass

 

So here's what's absolutely wild to me.

The NL Central race has looped and twisted so many times this season, without ever making it a surprise who's gonna end up in first. The Brewers are winning the division, we know this. But the saga to crown even ONE wild card team from this division has been ridiculous. I think virtually every single team in this division has had a turn at first, and all of them have had a turn at last. These teams have bobbed around like nobody, all for the opportunity to potentially edge out the Braves, Mets or Padres for a wild card spot. 

And the strange part, to me, is that the Cubs, who at one point absolutely bottomed out and laid there with virtually no shot, are basically the only NL Central team left with a shot at the wild card.

And it's not a 'by default' thing. The Cardinals, Reds and Pirates have all slowed down recently, to horrifying degrees, but it's not like the Cubs have just...stayed put. They've advanced. The Cubs are 15-13 since the ASG break, and they're 23-18 since July began. This run included huge wins against the Orioles, Cardinals, Royals and Twins, and opportunities for their big stars to come back into their own. 

I put it this way. The Cubs season bungeed and recoiled in the same time it took Justin Steele to get injured, come back, struggle and then click again. Steele is not fully at 2023 levels of excellence, and some early season starts took away from that, but he's still got a 3.10 ERA and 115 Ks in 20 starts. And that's really the thing about this rotation, there's a lot of people who've ebbed and flowed and it's really only now that they're all kind of hitting at once. Imanaga's back to a more consistent pace, only giving up 4 or less runs the last 5 starts. Hendricks has found the knack again and he's slowly getting his ERA back down. Assad is pretty much the only guy who's just been this consistent all year, and he's probably even better now than he was near the start. It's really only Taillon who's struggled lately, so having those four in great shape is at least a great ratio. 

Pretty much everything has finally fallen into place for this Cubs team. Swanson and Bellinger are back, and showing signs of productivity. Suzuki's hitting again and feeling like the guy the Cubs wanted all those years ago. PCA is very much Volpe in 2023, not offensively clicking yet but defensively incredible. All the new additions to the bullpen have turned the narrative around, and now that there's no longer a need for Hector Neris all involved parties can breathe easier. I think the issue for me is that there's no central offensive figure. Like the closest is Ian Happ but he's...fine, not blowing the doors off the place. Hoerner, Bellinger, now Paredes just haven't been that guy. But maybe they will.

The Cubs have the opportunity to push forward and land in the conversation again. I sincerely hope they take advantage of it before the division flips again.

Coming Tomorrow- I didn't think the A's could do 'defense-friendly infield specialist' at this stage of the rebuild, but here we are.

Out of the Frying Pan...

 

I dunno if Jake Burger wishes he was back in Chicago about now, but I think he definitely wishes he got traded somewhere other than Miami last year.

Not that it's going especially badly for him specifically. Burger has been a really hot power hitter lately, with a team leading 24 home runs and 55 RBIs. That's some very big numbers for a guy who always felt overshadowed in Chicago. The problem is that now Burger's one of the only horses in town for the Marlins. So many people have left that it's really down to Burger, Jesus Sanchez and Xavier Edwards right now, and that's basically it. People have called the White Sox a triple-A team this year, but the Marlins are getting very close just with the amount of Jacksonville-tier players that are being truly relied upon right now.

Like, to give you an example, with all the rotation options either hurt or traded away, the Marlins are now getting creative with who's around to start games. You've got some people you might guess would be in the mix, like Edward Cabrera, who's had some really nice starts lately, and Roddery Munoz who's been up since roughly May. But then things get interesting. You have Max Meyer, who had 3 really good early season starts and didn't make it back til midyear, for a reason still unclear to many. You have Adam Oller, who bottomed out with the A's a few years ago and isn't doing much better here. And, most intriguingly, you've had some excellent material coming from a guy who'd otherwise be stuck in Jacksonville, a sharp 24-year-old named Valente Bellozo, who's got a 2.45 ERA in 6 starts and has the highest probability of any of these guys to actually factor into the future of the team. Cabrera too, but even then you never known when he'll be pawned for parts.

And so Burger really hasn't had trouble standing out, because he's still decent enough even if the Marlins aren't. But if you look at the White Sox, their first baseman isn't having the same luck.

Andrew Vaughn was given 1st base when Jose Abreu left, which is a pretty big deal. Forget that he was primarily a DH before, he was given the green light to be that power 1B type in Chicago after Abreu. This hasn't happened. Vaughn has been an extremely okay corner bat, the answer to the question 'What if Jim Thome went on Ozempic', and he's just sort of...lazed on by. Dude's hitting .242 with 14 homers and 52 RBIs. Even for the White Sox that's boring. Robert has that many homers in 70 games. And yet Vaughn hitting .242 is still probably one of the higher averages on this team, because nobody's hitting. People are gonna do studies as to how Andrew Benintendi completely deteriorated in Chicago. He was not like this even in New York. 

Similarly, Brooks Baldwin, hitting .222 over 26 games, has made it into the top 7 WAR earners of the White Sox. He's done very little. He's been a step up on defense and he's had some power moments, and that alone has brought him over the majority of the team statistically. This is just a dire group, even with Crochet and Robert still here.

And yet I think Burger's still better off in Miami. They're probably gonna compete again sooner than Chicago, and they have enough pieces that could be immediately relevant before the next rebuild. Plus, the Marlins get Sandy Alcantara back next year, and Eury Perez. That is at least something, and it's more than they had this year. The White Sox, meanwhile, get Yoan Moncada and Jesse Scholtens back next year. Have fun with that.

Coming Tonight (?): He nearly won a Cy Young last year, and even if his team's still struggling to stay in the wild card race, he's giving his all even now.

Ern'd Run

 

It says a lot about the Toronto Blue Jays this year that after Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho, the player with the next-highest WAR is now Ernie Clement. Not that Clement isn't deserving of the honor, he's just a .270-hitting defensive whiz. Now that you mention it, Varsho's 2024 season has also been boosted by his impeccable defense.

I think that's how you best sum up this Jays team. Four of the best defenders in the league played for Toronto this year, except none of them could really hit. And so two are left, and...neither are really getting much hitting done, but at the very least the defense is worth it. Like, Varsho might be the best defensive outfielder in baseball. The guy has a 25 fielding WAR figure, that's pretty damned good. Clement is no slouch, he's got a 14, totaling 17 runs better than average. But...most of the hitters are just kinda...circling .210 and not progressing.

I think George Springer is the biggest summation of this, because he at least has decent power numbers, 14 homers and 46 RBIs, but his 0.8 WAR season is nowhere near his Houston peak. The fans essentially had to beg the Jays to take Springer out of the leadoff spot. It's clear he's just not that guy anymore, 10 years into his career. On top of that, the rest of the lineup mainstays are just guys in their 20s going through down years. Davis Schneider, Alejandro Kirk, Spencer Horwitz, Leo Jimenez. Just a lot of skulking around, not getting anything done. Which makes it all the more thrilling when someone who DOES hit, like Will Wagner, comes along and winds up with a .474 average in his first 6 games. Now, this was Davis Schneider last year, and now the novelty has worn off, but it's an exciting burst of energy for a team with none left.

Even the pitching has kinda given up. Bowden Francis has been doing the anchoring since Bassitt, Berrios and Gausman have slowed down, and it's been nice to see him prove he can start consistently. The bullpen's been kind of atrocious too, even with all the veterans they've plugged in. They're kind of running out the clock at this point, which is kinda sad.

The good news is that, since he was allowed to stay in town, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been putting on a clinic, and is hitting .317 with 26 homers and 89 RBIs. It is his best year since his 2021 come to prominence, and it's proof that he can still have great years despite his emphasis on power numbers. It's sad that this happened during such a down year for the Jays, and it's upsetting that this may be near the end of Guerrero's tenure in the city where his father's career left off, but who knows where his career will go next.

I'd hoped the Jays would have more substantial stories this year, but this is what we've got sadly. 5 years in and we're already seeing the limits of the legend of the junior Jays.

Coming Tomorrow- He got a ticket off a sinking ship to compete and play in October. Then that ship started sinking.

Blake of Fire

 

Scott Boras clearly wanted the right deal for Blake Snell. That's why he worked so hard to sell his client, in a way that alienated virtually every team when the numbers weren't matching his zeal. And to be honest, Boras probably thought that getting a long-term deal for a Cy Young winning pitcher still in his prime would be simple, as it always used to be. But I think what wounded Snell was the fact that this is 2024, and it's becoming rarer and rarer for pitchers to have consecutive great seasons without some degree of wear and tear. And so...clearly scouts saw a drop-off in Snell's material as he worked out in the spring, they saw a down year, and they backed off. All of them. The Yankees were the favorite to sign snell all Spring, and they backed off and instead went for Marcus Stroman, who...honestly, was exactly the kind of guy they needed.

So all Blake Snell ended up getting from the Giants, a team that turned out not to be ready to compete, was 1 year, 32 million, and a player option if, for some reason, Snell wanted to trust the system for 2025. All Snell was given was one year, when he clearly wanted four or five. And so I do not blame Snell for his first three months. Not only was he coming off a key year, and expecting to pitch exactly like it, but he was mad at the whole Boras situation. He'd be getting to the majors late, the pressure would be on immediately, it would not be the ideal situation. So Snell getting eaten alive out there in May was bound to happen. It happened to Jordan Montgomery too. Clearly, the scouts' concerns did have some truth, and Snell was faced with a terrible first half. 

A lesser pitcher would let that stop him. Blake Snell is not that.

So Snell's past 8 starts have been nothing short of incredible. A 1.03 ERA, 70 strikeouts, 6 earned runs. A no-hitter. A .117 opposing batting average. Probably one of the best stretches of Snell's career, and that includes the Cy Young seasons. Snell is pitching like he's got nothing to prove. Clearly he's fighting for his own worth, to get a better 2025 contract, but he's pitching like nothing's on the line. The Giants are gonna succeed or fail regardless, and he's only gotten the win in 2 of his starts, which...is telling. But Snell has also gotten through 5 starts without allowing a run. This is what he's capable of right now.

The other night, Snell, against the A's, struck out 10 and allowed just one run. It was a game the bullpen would make closer than it needed to be, but it was a game where for the majority of it, the Giants didn't need to worry. And Snell, at 31, is still capable of those kinds of games, regardless of whatever the hell he was dealing with earlier in the year.

All I hope for someone like Snell is that he straightens everything out with management, and figures out how to get a modest enough deal that still gives him what he's worth without leaving him hung out to dry if he's headed for a down year. He's a smart enough guy, he just needs to learn the right lesson from this year. The obvious outcome is the Yankees spending too much money on him and things not working out from the jump, but Snell needs to figure out the best way forward, without wasting anymore of his best years.

Coming Tonight: With many homegrown youth options hurt or leaving, a replacement super-ute takes the spotlight in Toronto.

100 Miles From Home

 

I think after some time has gone by, we're gonna look back at this year and see that Mason Miller was the biggest trendsetter in the MLB. Miller burst onto the scene as a killer relief piece who routinely hits 100mph, and so many other teams rushed to get their own. And the majority of them have been finding success this year. 

The most notable Miller copycat comes from Miller's own division, the AL West. Ben Joyce made a name for himself for throwing 105 miles per hour at U of Tennessee, which was virtually unheard of. Once the Angels drafted him, he eventually made some appearances last year, but found more of a footing in the Angels' bullpen this year. Once Carlos Estevez was traded he was even more vital, and his 100+ mph stuff became the talk of the town. With only a year or so under his belt as a major league reliever, Joyce already has been given his own MLB nickname: the Volunteer Fireman, coined as such due to the vacancy in the ninth leading to Joyce getting the closing job. His attitude was apparently 'sure, why not?', and since then he's been untouchable in save situations. 

Is there a chance Joyce could throw his arm out? Yeah. He's already had Tommy John surgery [in college!!] but that's never a guarantee that he'll never need it again. Still, his 105-caliber stuff has been well regarded in Anaheim, and he's probably gonna be a crucial piece of future Angels teams. As will his brother Zach, a fellow Tennessee hurler who the Angels drafted a year after they drafted Ben. Look for him to come up the pipe at some point.

But yes, someone like Joyce bursting onto the scene does make it clear that other teams can develop players as lethal as Mason Miller. The Diamondbacks have Justin Martinez, who's got a 1.82 ERA so far this year. The Pirates have Aroldis Chapman, who can still pitch over 100 and stifle opposing batters. Jhoan Duran famously can reach 100 mph in Minnesota, even if he hasn't been as dominant as he was in 2023. And also, there's this Paul Skenes character that can start games with that kind of velocity. The key to this sort of competition is sustainability. It's a lot to pitch 100 mph, but you have to keep it going for a while, rather than flame out quickly. Stephen Strasburg threw stuff nobody could hit for an entire decade, then his arm disallowed him a second one. The risks are there, and the pitchers know it. And hopefully they're knowledgable enough about conditioning and variance, so that they don't walk on eggshells for the rest of their careers. 

The Angels, meanwhile, don't have a ton left to do this season. Trout returning, if that even happens, won't save the team. Rendon's return lasted, like, a week or so. We're now down to letting some Trash Pandas fill out the rotation, for better or worse. It's good that big performers like Joyce or Logan O'Hoppe can provide relevance, because without Ohtani there's less to care about than ever for the Angels.

Coming Tomorrow- He didn't get the contract he wanted because he was pitching like he was overworked last year. He gets to the majors, and pitches like he was overworked last year. He misses a month. Then returns...and stops giving up runs. 

Purely Precautionary

 

That was the term that the Reds used when they put Hunter Greene, who's having the best season of his career and is an under-the-radar Cy Young favorite this year, on the 10-day IL. It was a 'purely precautionary decision', just making sure he doesn't get overtaxed now and blow the playoff race by getting hurt before it gets started. So the idea is to have him skip a start, conserve arm energy, and be back sometime after that.

It's...an interesting tactic, considering that the Reds jumped to 2nd place this week, and now have to stay in the race despite one of their biggest pieces being shut down. And since it happened, the Reds have gotten completely steamrolled in a series with the Royals. If the Cardinals had beaten the Dodgers and moved ahead in 2nd, I'd be more worried, but the Reds are gonna need a lot of inertia to keep from sinking without Greene.

The Reds are four games under .500, yet so much about this team is finally starting to click. Spencer Steer's finally playing like he should have all season, as is T.J. Friedl, who's been hot and healthy this month with 12 RBIs in August already. Ty France is actually an admirable power bat at 1st, and he's a great replacement for CES. So many fringe details of this team, like Nick Martinez as a swingman, Stuart Fairchild as a defensive substitution, the majority of the bullpen, and the stolen base game, are working right now, even with holes in the lineup. 

The central story of this Reds team, postseason or no, will be Elly de la Cruz's quest for a 30/60 season, and it's a cool enough story for a guy who the Reds hoped would finally be an MLB force this year. It just feels disappointing that there doesn't seem to be much else buttressing Elly at the moment. Abbott and Lodolo are getting killed on the mound. Candelario and Benson have gone cold. There's the possibility that the Reds might need to pull something out of their ass to replace Greene in the rotation, and it'll need to be something that at least stops the bleeding, if possible. 

At this rate, I'm worried that by the time Greene comes back there won't be a playoff case to come back to. The Reds need to bounce back from this Royals series if they want a chance at squeezing into a wild card spot, and with the Jays and Pirates up next, they need to act like it.

Coming Tonight: He throws 100 miles an hour and his value just went up in Anaheim.