The Arenado Variable

 

So. It's come to this.

For...reasons I've repeatedly mentioned on this blog, the St. Louis Cardinals are baseball's most violent thorn in my side. I can even manage the Astros and Rays some days, and I'm getting to the point where I hate the Red Sox less and less, just out of principle. And every couple of years, the Cardinals do something that drastically changes my mood. For years it was as simple as 'making the NLCS despite not especially deserving to', but that modified to things like 'trading for Paul Goldschmidt', 'springing Jack Flaherty on the American public', and 'beating the much-more-deserving Braves in the 2019 NLDS'. 

And then, this year, they went for another big one. 

Nolan Arenado, a lot like Paul Goldschmidt, was hampered by a crowded division, a low-seeding team, and being a big fish in a relatively small pond. Both players were very high in MVP voting for a number of years, never once getting the award. Both players had led the leagues in homers and RBIs, though Arenado did that a bit more often, and both trailed off slightly in their last season before the trade to St. Louis. And now they're together in the same infield. Ouch.

The thing is, because we know how Goldschmidt did after a year or so in St. Louis, it's a lot harder to say something like 'oh, Arenado's running out of good years, the Cardinals won't find anything left'. We thought that about Goldy, and then he has a .304 year with 21 RBIs, one of the few forces propelling St. Louis to October. So even if Arenado struggles in his first year in St. Louis, he could still come around and mash again. And there is something a little scary about Goldy and Arenado as battery partners.

The problem is that keeping a lot of these players under contract, between them and Yadi, Waino and Carpenter, has limited the rest of the lineup. Yes, standouts like Paul DeJong, Harrison Bader and Tyler O'Neill, but a lot of this team is made up of little guys, younger players who could either excel or flop. And they're all being led by Tommy Edman, who I do think is for real but I'm not sure what he's gonna be yet. Lots of guys like Lane Thomas, Dylan Carlson, Andrew Knizner and Austin Dean, trying to convince people that they'll take over the team when I'm not sure who any of them are or how any of them could be useful. The rotation was like that for a while before Flaherty and Hudson became standouts, but now Hudson's hurt, Martinez has lost his way, and the nobodies that used to inhabit the outfield might also be inhabiting the rotation again.

It's a very mixed bag, and there's a lot that could be vicious if it comes together, but I just can't see a clear picture of this Cardinals team. They could be very good, and I have no doubt that Arenado is gonna mash this year, but I don't know if this is a playoff team. Then again, in the NL Central, I'm not even sure what qualifies as a playoff team this year. 

Coming Tonight: Everybody's hero in Arlington finally gets to contend again.