Now Would Be a Good Time to Start Hitting

 

The Houston Astros are now three games behind the Seattle Mariners for the lead in the AL West. The Mariners went 5-8 in the last half of June, while the Astros went 11-2. That is...scary. Letting the Astros get hot and dawdling is what left the Mariners out of the fun last year. Plus, while the Astros get to play the Blue Jays and Twins this week, the Mariners have to play the Orioles and Jays. Decidedly, the M's get the tougher go, considering they have to play a 1st place team, and by the time they're done they might not even be a first place team anymore.

And so now, all of the criticism of the Mariners being an exceptionally great team for pitchers without having anybody hitting well will be put to the test. If the Mariners are a true 1st place team, they'll be able to snap into place and hit their way out of being lapped by the Astros again. If not...oof.

All of this shouldn't discredit the rotation, which has continued to be exceptional even as the bottom begins to fall out. George Kirby has now leveled himself, he's now 7-5 with a 3.35 ERA and 96 Ks. Meaning all of the top 4 Mariners starters have 90+ strikeouts, which is a pretty cool statistic. Kirby isn't the flashiest starter in the bunch, that's still Luis Castillo, but he's efficient and gets the job done. He's been lit up once or twice, but he's also had a ton of low-scoring starts recently, and that's given him a lot more support from the fans. There's a chance he makes a second straight ASG team, but Logan Gilbert will likely be prioritized. 

The trick has been that fifth spot, especially since Bryan Woo is hurt again and Emerson Hancock is staying down. The plan now is Jhonathan Diaz, who used to be the auxiliary starter in Anaheim, and so far he's been...decent. He gave up 3 runs in 5 innings but struck out 4. We'll see if he evens out to the same quality of the other four, but he's not getting lit up like the guy they just traded to Milwaukee for a dollar.

The lineup, though, needs to be the difference maker. So many great players on this team, like J.P. Crawford, Julio Rodriguez, Mitch Garver and Jorge Polanco, are refusing to do much at the plate. The guys who are hitting, like Josh Rojas, Dylan Moore, Cal Raleigh and now suddenly Luke Raley, aren't the central guys. Only one person on this team has over 40 RBIs, and only 2 people are hitting over .250. And though it may be difficult against the Orioles, the bats truly need to show up if they want to get anything done in this division this year.

You cannot pitch your way to October, you need to make it easier on them. Or else you'll be stuck with four dead arms and a lineup that couldn't give them an ounce of run support.

Coming Tonight: He may not have been a top choice to start in LA this year, but they probably can't imagine what they'd do without him. 

Why Add When You Could Subtract?

 

Prior to the 2024 season, the Brewers traded away Corbin Burnes, Adrian Houser and Tyrone Taylor, cut Rowdy Tellez, and let Carlos Santana, Mark Canha, Jesse Winker and Victor Caratini leave in free agency. Meanwhile, the Cubs, Cardinals and Reds all had high profile free agency signings, while the Pirates called up two of their biggest pitching prospects early. And there were a lot of people who thought the Brewers' inaction, plus their hiring of Pat Murphy in the wake of Counsell's departure, would lead to a less potent, more disappointing team. 

And now here we are. The Cubs, Cardinals, Reds and Pirates all fighting for second, while 6 games up the Brewers are hitting grand slams every other game and making it look easy.

Part of the Brewers' success has been their faith in cheaper, homegrown options rather than going and getting big free agents. Their biggest free agent signing was Rhys Hoskins, and even then he's a supplemental power hitter. The Brewers figured the kids from last season would inherit the team, and that's pretty much what's happened. Brice Turang is officially an MLB-level star, he's eclipsed even William Contreras as the best performer on the team. Blake Perkins isn't quite the hitter that he should be right now, but he's still on a tear. Jackson Chourio's finally heating up after a strong week. And now Garrett Mitchell's back, and so far he looks good. It's not up to veteran guys like Yelich and Adames as much as it used to be, and this team is proving they can carry the slack.

Even better, some of the trade returns are impressing people this year. Joey Ortiz, who had no room to play in Baltimore thanks to Ramon Urias, Jorge Mateo and Jordan Westburg, won 3rd base in Milwaukee handily, and has a .817 OPS with 28 RBIs and 7 homers. Ortiz is just a handy little hitter, efficient as hell and very consistent. He fits really well with the rest of this lineup, lots of explosive hitters who can just get you when you're not looking. The one issue I have with this team, aside from the lighter rotation, is the lack of true power options. There are hitters who CAN hit for power, like Yelich, Jake Bauers and Contreras, but...not a lot of proven power hitters. It's really just Hoskins. They'll probably get a true power bat at the deadline. Hell, Vlad Jr.'s not exactly out of the question.

The Brewers have a ton going for them, and are already primed for a killer second half. The hope is that their cheaper rotation will hold out, and with Dallas Keuchel struggling it's gonna need a reinforcement this month, but Peralta-Rea-Myers-Wilson has been surprisingly consistent, and if that holds, then they'll just need an innings eater to rest upon. 

Perhaps this will be the Brewers team to actually get something done in the postseason. Wouldn't be that wild?

Coming Tomorrow- Another member of a rotation that is singlehandedly keeping their team in 1st.

Always Be Closing: Keeping it Clase

 

135 saves. That is how many saves Emmanuel Clase has notched since the beginning of the 2021 season. He led the league in saves 2 seasons in a row, and right now he's leading the AL again with 25. In that time, Kenley Jansen has 124 saves, Josh Hader has 115 saves, and Craig Kimbrel has 88 saves. The simple ability for a closing pitcher to get 40 or so saves in consecutive seasons seems to be so rare now that the closer designation seems more variable than ever, with more relief options than ever. And yet Clase has 135 saves in the past 4 seasons.

I've talked about this a lot, but many teams have a relief hierarchy that requires them to designate their highest-ranked relief pitcher as the team's closer, rather than someone who they know is a workhorse that can come into the 9th and make magic happen. Some of the best closers right now, people like Ryan Helsley, Clay Holmes, Kyle Finnegan, David Bednar, Jose Alvarado and Devin Williams, are just guys who are the best option to close, regardless of whether or not they are a good closer. There's also people like Josh Hader and Evan Phillips, who were given the ninth by default and then figured out they're actually pretty damned good at closing games. The inverse of that is people like Edwin Diaz and Hector Neris, people who have done well in the ninth but aren't really justifying being given the closing position at the moment. 

There's only a few proven, perennial closing guys out there right now. It's really just Clase, Jordan Romano, Raisel Iglesias, Camilo Doval, Kimbrel and Jansen. Everybody else is working from gig to gig, even the good ones like Helsley and Phillips. Clase, though, has proven that if this is how good he can be during his prime, he'll likely be closing games for the rest of his life. 

Even after last season, which had his ERA closer to 3, Clase still feels unhittable and hard to get past when he's up there. So far this season he has a 0.69 ERA, as he's only given up 3 earned runs in 39 innings. His hits-per-9-innings figure is a 4.8, which is pretty damned good for a closer. And the thing about Clase, which is honestly crazy, is that even if he does blow saves, which he does, he still piles up the most saves of anybody. Last season Clase blew TWELVE SAVES, which is a lot even for a bad closer, and he still led the majors with 44 saves. So far this year he's blown 3, and he's still leading the AL with 25. He's not perfect, and he can still have lousy days, but the Guardians rarely ever have to worry much when he's on.

And Clase is just another fantastic asset the Guardians are running wild with. They're seeing great seasons from Jose Ramirez, Steven Kwan, David Fry, Andres Gimenez, Josh Naylor and tons more. Now they've got this Jhonkensy Noel guy up, his power numbers have been pretty impressive so far. They're doing this without Shane Bieber, and without an overwhelmingly amazing rotation. This is the power of somebody like Stephen Vogt, and it's proving how good of a choice he was to manage this team after Francona retired.

The Guardians are lucky they're competitive, at powerful, at the moment they've come upon one of the best closers in the game. It doesn't happen like this very often.

Coming Tonight: The Orioles, let's be clear, won the Corbin Burnes trade. But this guy they gave up is no slouch.

Phil in the Blanks

 

The Phillies have lost, just in the last month, Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber, J.T. Realmuto, Spencer Turnbull and Taijuan Walker. Three of their best hitters, two very important starters. And yet they still have a lot of the momentum they had before. Somehow this doesn't seem to faze them as much as it would normally.

Like, already you've seen this team cover for itself in bigger moments. Edmundo Sosa filled in for Trea Turner on his injury, and he became one of the most successful players on the team. Turnbull took Walker's rotation spot and was incredible, revitalizing himself after years of injuries in Detroit. Brandon Marsh was briefly covered by David Dahl, who is surprisingly doing really well this year, hitting .250 with 8 RBIs and 3 homers in 16 games. So the depth is very capable of withstanding big losses, even if Harper and Schwarber are huge blows to the Phils' power numbers. 

The good news is that Kody Clemens has become a pretty strong backup 1st baseman, as he's actually hitting this year, 10 RBIs in 20 games. Garrett Stubbs is a fairly decent catching option anyway, and though he's not as good of a hitter as Realmuto, he hasn't exactly felt overwhelmed by the rising opportunity. Rafael Marchan's also been okay as the backup, and his power bat can do some nice things. As for the fifth starter spot? Tomorrow the Phils plan to go with Michael Mercado, who is a rare RAYS prospect who was flipped for nothing to Philly. Usually it's the other way around. Mercado was strong in an earlier relief appearance, and therefore the club is handing him the ball against Chicago tomorrow. Just from his prior numbers, especially in Lehigh Valley, I think Mercado's a great choice. I don't know if he'll immediately leap to the quality of Suarez, Wheeler, Nola and Sanchez, but he'll at the very least be able to hold the Cubs down [hopefully].

As for the rest of the team, if Alec Bohm is staying hot and Marsh, Turner and Stott are heating up, I'm not worried. Bryson Stott has taken a step back from last year, but his infield play gives him the edge over the competition. Bohm is the opposite, he's a tremendous hitter who really shouldn't be playing third. Turner is playing like he's rehabbing an injury, which...he is, so I'm not faulting him for lower defensive numbers, but he is still hitting .300, so I'm happy there. This team thrives on people like Brandon Marsh and Edmundo Sosa, who are just as good defensively as they are at the plate, and I'm glad they can still power this team.

Finally, a word about the All-Star voting. Y'see, there have been a lot of people complaining about the Phillies' fanbase "rigging" the vote for people who may not deserve it. And I just want to set the record straight. I think that Alec Bohm and Trea Turner do deserve to be All-Stars, just like I think Bryce Harper deserved to be the voting leader for the NL. Every year we have a fanbase showing up for their guys, regardless of how well they match up to others, and like the other years where Giants fans or Cardinals fans or Cubs fans have made it so they get like 5 starters, Philly should be allowed theirs as well. This is what happens when you allow fan voting: the fans...will vote. People are worried that Nick Castellanos is gonna be pushed into a starting role for the NL. And, like...enough voters will ensure that doesn't happen. Brandon Marsh is a possibility, but Castellanos is polling 6th. Like we all know he's not an All-Star, even the Phils fans are like 'well he's been good LATELY, but...eesh'. So please...calm down. You're not getting like the whole team, like the Rangers last year. 

Hell, Bryson Stott didn't even make the second round anyhow. Though, in fairness, it's Ketel Marte's year, so I'm not gonna force it.

Coming Tomorrow- In the next couple years, all of Kenley Jansen, Craig Kimbrel and Aroldis Chapman will be retiring. I can only see one person having a full career of closing games like any of those three.

June 2024 in Review [feat. Tony Taters]

 

I figured June would do something to level the playing field and allow for true storylines to emerge, and that's pretty much what happened. A lot of big things happened this month, and not all of them were pretty, especially for my sake. 

Before we get into what happened this month, here's the 5 predictions I made in May:

1. One or more of the Yankees and the Phillies slow down a bit to give everyone else a chance. Well, the Yankees certainly did this, as I honestly figured they would. I don't think they're gonna fall apart to the extent they did last year, but they did their usual 'people get injured and the stars stop showing up' schtick, and thus they're no longer in 1st. The Phils have also had injury trouble, but because of how well built the roster is it hasn't affected them as much, and they still have a lead over Atlanta.

2. An intriguing return from the IL revitalizes a team.  Really, the guy to put here is Royce Lewis. Since his return, the Twins have been absolutely electric, and his home run hitting has absolutely fueled that. Francisco Alvarez also definitely falls into this category. You could also put Max Scherzer into this category, even if the O's did give him a particularly warm welcome the other night.

3. A struggling team does something drastic and probably ill-advised. The Mets said 'hey, let's have Grimace throw out the first pitch' during an awful streak. And they've been amazing ever since.

4. An unknown player for a low-market team breaks big out of absolutely nowhere. Honestly this didn't really happen this month.

5. I'm going to two games this month. Something incredible happens at one of them. Uhh...other than a Bryce Harper home run that seemed to leave the stratosphere, not much. 

And so here, in opposition to that, are 5 Things from June 2024 that No One Could Have Predicted:

1. Not only are the Orioles good, they can RAKE. This team hit 60 home runs this month. That is a lot. Anthony Santander is the key piece of the Orioles' power surge, as in June alone he's hit 13 home runs and 25 RBIs. It's not that people didn't think Santander was capable of this, but he's had a quiet few months beforehand, and he's one of those guys that is either destroying you with power or laying low. Between Santander, Gunnar Henderson, who has 26 home runs, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg, who have 12 and 13 homers respectively, and Adley Rutschman, who's hit 15, there's a lot of people who are looking at the prospect of a 25+ homer season. Not even mentioning Ryan O'Hearn and Cedric Mullins, who've also had cool power moments. This is a team that, moreso even than the Yankees, can spread their power numbers throughout the whole team and always have somebody who can outdo you. That's a really important factor as we head into the thick of things. 

2. The NL Central becomes a fascinatingly competitive division. At the exact same time, in one division, you have the Cardinals blazing through a relatively simple schedule, the Cubs tanking, and the Pirates and Reds flirting with competitiveness. And with all of this happening at once, the NL Central standings, which looked pretty set in stone before, looked different practically every day, with four teams within a game of each other. And all of this while the Brewers held first, even as their lead begins to slip as June ends. It's a fascinating divisional race, one that'll likely get even more interesting next month.

3. The Cubs and Rangers completely fall apart. Two of the most competitive teams of the first two months just ran out of gas this month. The Cubs were just dipping under .500 as the month began, and now they're in last, and 6 games under, thanks to bullpen inefficiency, Kyle Hendricks' Jekyll-and-Hyde numbers, the opposing offenses figuring out Shota Imanaga and Justin Steele, and Javier Assad getting hurt. There's a lot of mediocrity at play there, with many hitters just performing the bare minimum, and even the bigger stars making entry-level snafus. The Rangers, meanwhile, now have a worse record than even the Cubs, and they're only in third. It's more mediocrity, but the starting pitching has given up a ton of runs, and without key pieces like Josh Jung and Evan Carter they don't have much to attack with. Pretty much the only hitter in this lineup with an average over .250 is Josh Smith, who wasn't even supposed to be here. Of the two, I think the Rangers have more to work with going forward, but they both have completely reassessed their plans for the season. 

4. The Mets. Grimace threw out the first pitch, then they went 12-3. Nobody can believe how instantaneously this Mets team sprung to life. Some of it had to do with activating Francisco Alvarez, or bringing in Jose Iglesias and promoting David Peterson. But it did really feel like the flip of a switch. Now Lindor and Nimmo feel lively, Mark Vientos feels like a key player, Bader and Martinez are crucial power bats, and Alonso has 17 homers. So many friends of mine who are Mets fans feel so much more optimistic now, which is pretty incredible when you consider they're at .500. 

5. Carlos Correa returns. I wrote Correa off as post-peak last month, and he made me regret it. In June alone, Correa hit .394 with 37 hits, 21 RBIs and 5 homers. This is the kind of stuff he'd do for the Astros all the time, and this is the first time he's really felt like himself since before he signed the new contract. His rise in power, as well as surges from Royce Lewis and Byron Buxton, have brought the Twins back to 2nd place and given them legitimacy once more. 

Meanwhile, we also have here 5 Things from June 2024 That Lots of People Could Have Predicted:

1. The Astros slowly creep back up the standings. Yeah, you knew it was coming, even if Verlander got hurt again. Something about a team with Jose Altuve, Yordan Alvarez, Alex Bregman and Kyle Tucker is extremely hard to keep down.

2. The Yankees hit a wall. This happens every year, around the same time of year. The guys that are working, like Luis Gil, Carlos Rodon, Giancarlo Stanton and Clarke Schmidt, skid to a halt or get injured, only a few hitters show up each game, the reinforcements come in shakily, and we get lapped in the standings. With the strength of the O's, at least we're not in 2nd for no reason, but it still hurts. 

3. Steven Kwan and Luis Arraez battle for a batting title. These are two of the best contact hitters baseball has seen in a while. Arraez's Padres numbers have kept that team in 2nd. Kwan's contact numbers have strengthened an already-strong Guardians team, in addition to some surprising power numbers. 

4. Losing Mookie Betts doesn't stop the Dodgers. All it means is Shohei Ohtani just pushes into overdrive and commands the MVP conversation, meaning he could go for the Frank Robinson feat this year without even being in full two-way mode. The Dodgers still have enough assets, like Teoscar Hernandez, Miguel Rojas, Tyler Glasnow and Will Smith, that they still feel like an underwhelming NL favorite.

5. Edwin Diaz does something stupid right when people are starting to like him again. Man, getting ejected for tack is soooo 2022, man. 

And finally, 5 Bold Predictions for July 2024:

1. Something infuriating involving the All-Star Game

2. A manager loses his job.

3. Even 'Judge slowing down' still puts him on a scary pace in the home run race.

4. Bryan Cashman conveniently schedules nap time for 4:00 PM on deadline day, again.

5. I am infuriated by a team entering the race on deadline day who should be playing far more conservatively. 

Well, at the very least it was a June where a lot happened. Hopefully July is a wee bit calmer for the teams I care about.